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#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Neutral. Market only went lower through spikes, which were followed by a pullback. This is not as strong as it looks and I do think it’s likely that bears get disappointed next week. 2600 is possible but that is the lowest I can see this going for now. Any long closer to 2626 is an amazing trade. I have an open bull gap there and I highly doubt bears will be able to close it. For now bears have turned the daily 20ema into resistance and if you want higher probability on your longs, wait for a breakout above 2725. Quote from last week: comment: Decent pullback now on the daily chart but still far above the daily 20ema. Friday’s rejection at 2772 was good enough to expect this to break below 2740 for the second leg down. Problem for the bears is, that even if they break below 2720, the downside is probably limited to the bull trend line from August. So clearly a tough spot to trade. Any long closer to 2700 is better than closer to 2750. Same logic for shorts, I think 2800 continues to be a good level to sell and market moves more sideways instead of another break above that price. comment : Bear surprise because they just melted through 2700 and the bull trend line on Wednesday. Bulls retested the bull trend line and got rejected. Bears were also strong enough to keep the market below the daily 20ema and as long as that is the case, bears are in control for now. 2600 is my lower target for the bears and sideways 2600-2720 is the most likely path forward imo. current market cycle: Best guess right now is a bigger trading range 2600-2800. key levels: 2600 - 2800 bull case: Bulls failed at 2700 and if they don’t close a daily bar above 2720 soon, we could test down to 2600, which is where I expect many more buyers to enter the market again. We have an open bull gap, the October low and the weekly 20 ema in the price area. I do think the closer you can long to 2600, the better the trade. Invalidation is below 2600. bear case: Bears had 2 spikes down now and they could get a third before I see this going higher again. Bears know that each sell spike was followed by a bull bar, so the trend down is weak and will likely find it’s bottom soon. Bears will likely wait for another pullback higher to daily 20ema and/or bear trend line around 2710, before trying for a third leg down. Invalidation is above 2730. outlook last week: short term: Slightly bearish for a test down to 2700-2710. → Last Sunday we traded 2749 and now we are at 2694. Good outlook, market got even 50 points lower than my target. Hope you made some. short term: Neutral around 2700. If we stay below 2720, I can see a third leg down to retest 2650 or even go down to 2600/2620. Above 2730 I favor the bulls to go higher again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03: For now I can’t see this breaking above 2800, since the rally was climactic. Until 2600 is broken, I expect sideways movement inside this range. Market should test down to the weekly 20ema over the next weeks/months but bears have absolutely nothing to show for since June and that’s why we can’t expect bigger selling until they clearly do more. Update: Changed 2700 to 2600, since market broke strongly below 2700 already. Trading range is still my preferred path forward, just the lower end went down 100 points. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear trend line
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: Neutral. Choppy week with going nowhere. Market was moving sideways while other markets melted higher. Can’t be anything but neutral, since market is contracting in a tighter range. If I had to guess, I’d say bulls have a slightly higher chance of printing a new ath than bears breaking below 19000, just due to overall market euphoria. If bears break below 19000, measured move down is 18000. Bullish break above 19700 and we go for 20000. Buying below 19200 has been profitable for 2 months and I don’t expect it to fail next week. Quote from last week: comment: Big week for the bears since they broke the bull rally and most recent trend line, which turned the market neutral at previous support. Now comes the most important price action for the coming weeks. If bears get their strong second leg down, we will see 18200 in November, if we go sideways from here, odds drop for the bears and market is probably ranging more at the highs. It would also keep the possibility alive to print 20000 this year. The timing of the selling was in between very good earnings and mediocre outlooks. If we continue down, this would probably mean funds want to secure profits in this year and the selling could accelerate. comment : Bears failed at 19000 which keeps 20000 alive and it’s more likely that we continue sideways than a break to the downside. Above 19600 I would favor the bulls to get it to a new ath and potentially to 20000. Wednesday was the most important day last week and I would join either side above or below that bar. Otherwise there is currently no deeper meaning of this trading range near the ath. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18900 - 20000 bull case: Bulls failed on Wednesday where they were rejected big time from 19560 for 500 points down. They have been printing higher lows since and now they need a break above 19600 for 19700 and then potentially 20000. As of now the market is in balance around 19300 and the triangle will play out some more. Any long below 19200 has been profitable for a month, so look for longs in that area, until it’s clearly broken. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Even with the big reversal on Wednesday, bears do not have much right now. Support is holding and market is spiking up, rather than below. As long as bears can’t print a daily close below 19000, it is useless to look at this from a bearish point of view. Even if bears get below 19000, the weekly 20ema is around 18800, so the downside is probably very limited, while bulls have the big target 800 points higher. Invalidation is above 19700. outlook last week: short term: Bearish for a second leg down, as long as we stay below 19400. → Last Sunday we traded 19254 and now we are at 19215. Monday and Tuesday were nothingburger and Wednesday crossed my invalidation line pretty fast. Wrong outlook anyway. short term: Neutral 19000 - 19700, bullish above for 20000. I do think the triangle could play out some more and I am currently more willing to buy below 19200 than to short 19600. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: None chart update: Changed two legged correction into 3 legs down, target is the same for now.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures : Bullish. Breakout was strong with follow through and I have a measured move target to 6400+ and a trend line that runs through 6200. Even if we get a pullback, the first one will most likely be bought and we retest 6050. What would the bears need to make this the ultimate bull trap? One giant bear bar that closes below 5850 could do it but how likely is that? It’s absolutely reasonable to not buy into this madness and wait for bears to come around. I would be surprised if we closed 2024 above 6000. Quote from last week: comment: Reasoning here is almost identical to dax and nasdaq. Selling was strong enough for a second leg and a measured move leads down to 5555, which is near the 50% retracement. I won’t repeat the same stuff here what I wrote for dax. comment : Same logic here as for dax. Bears failed to get below 5700 and on Tuesday market went the other direction. Wednesday was certainly a huge bull surprise and we went high enough that it opens even higher targets. The rally lost steam on Thursday/Friday, which could result in a pullback first. I draw the line for bulls around 5850, if we drop below, we might as well go 5800 followed by 5730. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 5850 - 6050 (above 6050, 6200 comes in play) bull case: With 6000 my bullish targets were met but this does not look like it’s reversing anytime soon. If bulls keep it above 5850, we are free to go up to 6100/6150. A measured move from last week up gives us 5300 and I even have a measured move target at 6500ish from the August rally but that is obviously very far fetched for now. Invalidation is below 5850. bear case: Bears have nothing as of now. The rally last week was strong enough to expect more upside and bears could not trade more than a bar below the 1h 20ema since Tuesday. The best they can hope for is that the bull trend line above us, holds and market does not go much above 6050. My bullish targets were met with 6000 but the market obviously broke strong enough above it. Bears have no decent reason to sell this right now. Invalidation is above 6100. outlook last week: short term: Neutral until we break below 5700. I favor some more sideways movement before the second leg down but it should stay below 5830. → Last Sunday we traded 5758 and now we are at 6025. Well, at least I was not bearish. short term: I want to join the bulls but need a pullback first or a strong momentum break above 6030. Zero bearish thoughts as of now. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bear lines, adjusted bull trend line and added bull channel
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2
SasanSeifi| From $1.00 to $1.70, What's Next for This Asset!?Hey there, ✌On the daily time frame BINANCE:FETUSDT , as you can see, we’ve seen a notable price increase from the demand zone around $1. At the moment, the downward trendline that had previously capped the market has been broken, and the price is now trading around $1.50. The overall market sentiment appears to be shifting bullish, and it is expected that the price could rise to the levels of $1.60 – $1.70. After this, considering the possibility of a consolidation or pullback phase, it is anticipated that the price will continue its upward movement and may reach the $1.90 level, followed by the $2 supply zone. If the price continues to rise, it will be crucial to closely monitor how the price reacts at these key levels in order to gain a better understanding of the next potential moves. The current important support zone is at $1.35. Therefore, before making any decisions regarding entry, it is highly recommended to carefully analyze the overall market conditions and pay close attention to the key support and resistance levels. This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
Long
by SasanSeifi
Bitcoin, BTC, Large Footprints say Higher Sir. Once you see this, it can't be unseen... How do large players build large positions? They shake you out and take yours. Think about it; where do you place your long stops? below the previous low? perfect. See what the large players did here? they kept the shorts in play, while running the long stops 4 times, each time stopping out your longs and building their longs. What happens next? maybe one last little shake.. then send it. shorts need to cover and now sidelined players need to enter new positions, all adds fuel to the long. This is a bull flag re-accumulation pattern. But think bigger, as fiat currency continues to inflate, your purchasing power continues to melt like an ice cube... that makes this is a long term trade. The Trade? Do everything you can to acquire as much spot Bitcoin as you can, then diamond hand it as long as you can. This is going much higher. Depending on your time horizon & personal objectives taking money off the table at key targets would be wise while leaving enough in for over performance. See the linked chart for those targets. D.Y.O.R. DO NOT BLINDLY TAKE THESE TRADES. Never Trust. Verify. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS. This is not financial advice. These are just my observations. Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds. Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key. Capital preservation above all else.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TribeWriter666
GOLD MCX - 1D TIMEFRAME - ANALYSIS Pure Price Action-Based Trading Plan Buy Position: Enter a buy position if the price breaks and closes above ₹78,700. Targets: Target 1: ₹79,500 Target 2: ₹80,500 Target 3: ₹82,000 Stop Loss: Place the stop loss just below ₹77,000 to limit downside risk. Sell Position: Enter a sell position if the price breaks and closes below ₹76,300. Targets: Target 1: ₹75,500 Target 2: ₹74,500 Target 3: ₹73,000 Stop Loss: Set the stop loss above ₹77,000 for this trade. Given the overall bullish trend, it would be safer to lean towards a buy on breakouts rather than anticipating a reversal. However, a break below support could open the door for short-term selling opportunities. This approach relies purely on observing price behavior at key levels rather than indicator-based signals.
MCX:GOLD1!
by rddtqpek
1
SasanSeifi| Can We Expect a Rebound Above Key Resistance Levels?Hey there, ✌ BINANCE:SHIBUSDT On the 4-day long-term time frame, after breaking a strong support at the 0.000018 cent level, the price experienced a significant drop, reaching the 0.000010 cent range. Currently, the price is trading in a range around 0.000014 cents, and it’s important to note that it remains below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). As long as the price is trading below the 200 EMA and the key supply zone between 0.000016 and 0.000017 cents, the overall outlook stays bearish. At the moment, the price is moving toward the key supply zone. If the price gets rejected and momentum weakens at this level, and we receive a sell confirmation (SELL) on lower time frames, the likelihood of a downward move toward targets like 0.00000945 cents increases. On the other hand, if the price manages to break and hold above the key level and the 200 EMA, further price growth towards targets of 0.000020, 0.000023, and 0.000025 cents is possible. This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
by SasanSeifi
2
2024-11-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Bullish read was perfect and good for 300+ points. Now the air gets thinner again. Above 19500 longs are probably not a good trade since the downside is sub 19100 and upside probably limited to 19700 max. If market holds above the 1h 20ema tomorrow, I’ll try longs but if now, we could see some profit taking again. comment : Hope you took the amazing longs today. Now it’s very tough to be a bull above 19500. We have big rejections from 19500 and 19600 on Wednesday and we have to assume that these prices continue to be resistance. If you want to buy this you would have to risk down to 19080 to make maybe 100 points. Not a good trade. I would rather try to scalp for 10-20 points than coming up with good trades from 19500. I will look for longs near the 30m or 1h 20ema, if they show to be support. No shorts until US starts the selling too. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18900 - 19700 bull case: Bulls want to retest 19650 and then also the ath at 19802. No reason to not get there because we have multiple measured move targets or patterns that lead there or higher. 20000 is still possible, if we get follow through buying tomorrow. If you are thinking “this can’t go higher, the german economy is a dumpster fire and all news are beyond bad blablabla” I got bad news for you. This has nothing to do with any logical reason to trade near the ath. Everyone who wanted to short this because of logical reasons already has and market is moving where the least resistance is. Call it a pain trade if you will. We have 2 years of negative GDP print and dax is going for 20000. Stop looking for reasons why markets are doing stuff. Senseless waste of time and energy. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears want to keep 19500-19650 resistance to prevent more bulls to join for 19800 or 20000. I would not look for shorts to be honest. US markets are unstoppable and you would try to short during a euphoric wave. I do think below 19400 more bulls would cover again and we can trade to 19100 again but I would only join them on strong momentum but I still favor the bulls to print 20000 rather than bears selling this down below 19200 again. Invalidation is above 19700. short term: Neutral. Leaning slightly bullish if we just continue higher and we have a clear support with the 30m or 1h 20ema. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: Took most off on 19500, leaving runner for 20000. trade of the day: I called the long and long it was.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-11-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. All bullish targets are met for me and I will not long anything above 5980 anymore. Too early for shorts, wait for bears to come around with force. Blow-off top with 6050 or 6100 is not out of the question, so best to join on momentum or sit on hands. Next big points will be made to the downside. comment: All my bullish targets are now met and I would not look for longs above 5980. I got one more measured move higher to 6160 but that’s just beyond insane to expect this to be hit. But so was 6000 and here we are. All bubbles burst eventually, so will this. current market cycle: bull wedge key levels: 5720 - 6013 bull case: Bulls got 6000 and now want to continue and make this look like a real breakout above the bull wedge to trap many weak traders into longing this above 6000 and make them exit liquidity. At least that’s what I see potentially happening here. No interest in longs up here or looking for arguments for bulls. This is the biggest bubble there ever was. Next big points will be made to the downside. Invalidation is below 5720. bear case: Bears still don’t have much. The selling will start once enough bulls begin to take profits. Market is trying again to break above a multi week bull pattern and those rarely succeed. Don’t try to be an early bear and burn your account. This could easily go 50-100 points higher before turning. Measured move down from 6000 to 5730 leads exactly to the September low, where the bull trend line started. If we hit that price in 2024, you read this here first. Invalidation is above 6050. short term : Neutral. Scalps only for me until bears come around big time. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. Update 2024-11-07: Blow-off top happening right now and 6013 could be the end of it, I don’t know. Next comes the correction before bulls try another run at the highs during santa rally. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buy anwhere. Again. 1h 20ema not touched since Tuesday. Trends do not get stronger than this.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SolanaHi guys on the weekly time frame; If the red downtrend line breaks upwards, we may be ready to complete the flag pattern. But the situation is not interesting here at the moment. If the red support area ($104.5) is completely consumed, we expect a reaction from the area of ​​$188.4 or $160.3, and the possibility of continuing the downward trend to the specified price area is strengthened. If the support area of ​​$104.5 is preserved and the downtrend line is broken upwards, our mentality for an uptrend will be strengthened. What do you think?
Short
by BiTBingo
SasanSeifi| Is Filecoin Ready for a Bullish Rebound?Hey there, ✌In the daily timeframe, as you can see, Filecoin ( BINANCE:FILUSDT ) has been in a downtrend for a while, falling from the $10 range. After this decline, the price found support around the $3 range, showing positive reactions and some volatility. Currently, the descending trend line, which had multiple touches, has been broken, and the price is now trading around $3.90. Considering the $3 demand zone holding and the breakout of the long-term downtrend, there seems to be potential for some minor upward moves in the future. 🔹 One scenario to watch is that if the price breaks through the $4 level with strong momentum and stabilizes above it, we could see growth towards the $4.20 target and the supply zone around $4.50. 🔶 If the price rises, it will be important to monitor how it reacts to these levels to better understand the future trend. After a potential negative reaction and minor correction, the price could push up again and reach as high as the $5.50 to $6 range. 🚨Key support levels to watch are $3.50 and $3.20. Holding above these levels is crucial for maintaining the bullish outlook. ❗❗ ⭕(The chart is logarithmic.) 💢This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
by SasanSeifi
4
2024-11-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - 1 daily bar to almost engulf 2 months of price action. The rejection above 19600 was strong enough to expect that the highs are in but I am not convinced. I highly doubt dax will be flat or lower while wallstreet is doing an early Santa rally on coke. I am much more bullish and expect 19000 to hold. Decent 1h bear bar that closes below 19000 can convince me to turn bear. comment: Tough to ponder what to make of big up on US markets while dax sold off hard to get below 19100 again. I do think 19000 is huge support and bulls are favored but 6 consecutive daily bar closes below the ema is pretty bearish. Will continue to look for longs around 19100 until 19000 is clearly broken and we go down. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18900 - 19700 bull case: Bulls got above 19600 which was an amazingly fast up move but the sell off was even better. Bulls have still no reason not to buy this around 19100. It has been profitable for a month now and given price action on the other markets, I am having a very hard time to be bearish. Bulls need to get above 19300 for more bears to cover and then they can try to go 19500 or higher again. Most outrageous target of 20000 is still on the table. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case : Bears see the perfect head & shoulders pattern on the daily chart. Also the huge rejection above 19600 and the 6 consecutive closes below the daily ema. Bears have all the arguments on their side to try and break below 19000. Is the current market environment good for them? I don’t know. It’s not that often that major western indices converge that much but let’s see tomorrow. Measured move down brings us to 18300. Make no mistake, I absolutely, 100% expect that price to be hit again this year. This rally is nothing but coke fueled euphoria based on hopes and dreams the next US government will wave a magic wand and fulfill wallstreet’s dreams. Invalidation is above 19700. short term: Bullish as long as 19000 holds. I think we can print 20000 before this corrects big time. Below 19000 I am wrong. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19 : 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: If 19000 holds tomorrow, will do a swing long and hope for a homerun to 20000. trade of the day: Wild swings in both directions. Globex was obviously as bullish as it gets but changing to full bear mode on EU open and hold to 19100 was tough.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
SasanSeifi|Will the Price Break Above $0.18 or Face a CorrectionThe previous analysis.👇 In the daily timeframe BINANCE:DOGEUSDT , Dogecoin has held support around the $0.090 level, entering a consolidation phase. The forecast suggested a short-term target of $0.125, followed by a possible move to the $0.14–$0.15 range. Observing Dogecoin’s reaction to both the $0.125 level and the liquidity area around $0.14 is crucial to understanding its future direction. As predicted, Dogecoin maintained its support at $0.10 and resumed an upward trajectory, achieving a significant 46% increase up to the $0.15 target. Following this, Dogecoin encountered resistance, triggering a slight retracement, and a potential pullback down to the $0.125–$0.12 range is expected. Further monitoring of price reactions at these support levels will clarify its next movements. After a period of consolidation and confirmation, there’s a chance for another round of upward fluctuations and bullish momentum. However, should the price fail to hold, further corrections might follow. New analysis👇 As shown on the chart, after a slight retracement down to the $0.125 area and completing a pullback, Dogecoin has rebounded with a 37% increase, currently testing a significant supply zone. If the price can push above the crucial $0.18 resistance level, Dogecoin could extend its growth to targets like $0.188–$0.20, approaching the next bearish order block. On the other hand, if momentum weakens, a corrective target at $0.158–$0.155–$0.15 could come into play. Observing price reactions to these support levels will provide clearer insight into Dogecoin's future trend. 💢This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
by SasanSeifi
5