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USD/JPY: Ready for a Rally or a False Recovery?USD/JPY is at a crucial stage, with the price hovering around 143.900. After a bearish move, the market is attempting to recover, aiming for the resistance zone between 149.000 and 151.000. COT Insight: COT data shows a slight increase in long positions among speculative traders (+397), while commercials are increasing their short coverage (+539), indicating caution. Seasonality: Historically, May has been a slightly bullish month for USD/JPY (+0.42% over the last 10 years), but the trend has been negative in the last 5 years (-0.57%), indicating uncertainty. Retail Sentiment: 65% of retail traders are long, which could indicate potential bearish pressure in case of opposite moves, given the risk of position liquidation. Conclusion: Carefully monitor the price reaction around 144.000. A breakout towards 149.000 could signal a significant move, but the long retail pressure might represent an obstacle.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
2025-05-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Triangle as in other markets, will likely do a strong move tomorrow or Friday. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 24000 bull case: Bulls see this as a shallow/sideways pullback at the highs and want continuation for a new ath. They are trading far above the daily 20ema and the volume is picking up again. Yesterday bulls bought a big pullback but failed to make higher highs today, so they are likely disappointed. I don’t think many bulls want to stay long when we fail to make higher highs but rather wait for another pullback. So either they get the new ath tomorrow, or risk of running stops below 22979 increases. Invalidation is below 23300. bear case: Bears tried two times now to push the market lower and failed. If we make higher highs again, they will most likely give up and wait to see how high this can go before they short again. Only below 22979 will bears do some damage to the bull case and we could maybe see an acceleration down. For now bears are to weak to print lower lows but bulls are also weak, which is the reason why we printed a triangle. Probably best to do nothing and wait for the strong next move. Invalidation is above 23550. short term: Neutral. Below 23000 I favor the bears and above 23400 we are likly going for 23550 and if that won’t hold, we could do 24000. Markets keep ignoring bad news, so the path of least resistance is likely still up but it’s a guess and nothing you should trade on. Trade whats in front of you and not what you think the market should do. Right now it’s in a tight range waiting for the next impulse. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is over. My rough guess for now is that we will stay inside this trading range 19000 - 24000 for much longer or until economic data becomes the excrementshow I expect it to become over the next months. trade of the day: Shorting EU open and holding for 23200, which was around prior support.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
GBPNZD: Support Rebound! Target 2.26 on the Horizon? The weekly chart of GBPNZD shows a consolidation phase following a strong bearish impulse. The price has reacted positively from the support area around 2.2200, forming a significant bullish candle that could indicate a rebound towards the resistance area at 2.2600. The positive momentum suggests a possible test of the intermediate resistance at 2.2500, with the RSI gradually rising from an oversold zone. Fundamental Analysis According to the COT data updated as of April 29, 2025, we observe an increase in long positions on GBP by institutional traders, with an increment of +10,665 contracts. On the other hand, commercial traders (hedgers) continue to maintain a significant short exposure on GBP. This imbalance may suggest a potential short-term speculative interest in a bullish GBP move. Regarding NZD, the latest COT report shows a significant increase in commercial long positions (+3,884 contracts), indicating a strengthening of the New Zealand dollar. However, the overall market sentiment shows a prevalence of short positions on GBPNZD (59% short vs. 41% long), suggesting that retail traders might be on the wrong side of the market. Seasonal Analysis Historically, in May, GBP tends to show weakness (-0.0076 over the last 20 years), while NZD does not show a clear seasonal pattern. This could reduce the likelihood of a decisive GBP movement during this month. Operational Strategy The rebound from 2.2200 could favor the opening of long positions with the first target at 2.2500 and the second target at 2.2600. The stop loss could be placed below the key support at 2.2100. In case of a resistance breakout, an extension towards the 2.2700 area would be plausible.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EURAUD - Overall Bearish Medium-Term!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈EURAUD has been overall bearish trading within the falling wedge pattern marked in red. Moreover, the green zone is a strong structure and resistance. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper red trendline and resistance. 📚 As per my trading style: As #EURAUD retests the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TheSignalyst
3
EURAUD - Long-Term Correction in the Making!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈EURAUD has been bullish trading within the rising channel in blue. Currently, EURAUD is retesting the upper bound of the channel. Moreover, the $1.84 - $1.87 is a strong weekly resistance zone. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper blue trendline and green resistance zone. 📚 As per my trading style: As #EURAUD is hovering around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TheSignalyst
9
Ultimate Guide to Master CISDCISD stands for Consolidation, Inducement, Stop Hunt, Displacement. It’s a simple, repeatable structure that shows how smart money sets up traps in the market to grab liquidity and then make a clean move in the opposite direction. If you’re serious about trading the ICT style, this is one of the most useful frameworks to learn. It helps you avoid chasing bad breakouts and teaches you to wait for real setups that come after stop hunts and proper market structure shifts. But there’s one rule that’s non-negotiable — a CISD setup is only valid after a liquidity sweep. If the market hasn’t taken out a clear high or low where stops are sitting, then the rest of the model doesn’t mean anything. No sweep, no trade. 1. Start With the Liquidity Sweep Everything begins with the liquidity grab. If price hasn’t taken out a high or low where stops are stacked, you should walk away from the setup. Don’t try to front-run a move before smart money has done its job. The liquidity sweep is what gives the rest of the move power. That’s when price runs through obvious levels, swing highs, swing lows, the Asian range, New York session highs or lows and hits stop losses. Those stops give smart money fuel to enter in the opposite direction. When you’re watching the market, ask yourself this: "Who just got stopped out?" If you can’t answer that, then it’s not a sweep. And if it’s not a sweep, it’s not a CISD. 2. Consolidation — Where Liquidity Builds This is the first part of the structure. Price starts to move sideways in a tight range, usually during Asian session or during parts of London where volume is low. It can last for hours or even across sessions. The key here is to understand what’s happening. Traders are placing buys above the highs and sells below the lows. Liquidity is building on both sides. It’s a trap being set. Retail traders are expecting a breakout, but smart money is waiting to use that breakout to their advantage. Your job in this phase is to identify the range and mark out the highs and lows. That’s where stops will be sitting. You’re not looking to trade during this phase. You’re watching and planning 3. Inducement (sweep)— Fake Break to Trap Traders After the range is set, price gives a small push out of the range just enough to get people to commit. This is the inducement. It’s the bait. Let’s say the range high is being tested. Price breaks just above it, traders think it’s a breakout, and they go long. Maybe it holds for a couple of minutes, even gives a small push in their favor. But then it rolls over. That’s the trap. Now those traders are caught, and their stops are sitting below. Sometimes the inducement comes before the real sweep. Other times, the inducement is the sweep. What matters is that traders have been lured into bad positions and their stops are exposed. As a trader, your job is not to take the bait. Watch how price reacts to these fake moves. Often, they come with weak volume or are followed by an immediate sharp reversal. 4. Stop Hunt — The Sweep That Validates the Setup This is where the real move starts to form. Price aggressively runs through the level that holds liquidity, usually below the low or above the high you marked earlier. This is when smart money takes out the traders who were induced during the fake move. Their stops get hit, and that gives institutions the volume they need to get into the opposite side. You should be actively watching for a reaction here. Do you see rejection? Does the candle close with a strong wick? Are there signs of absorption or order flow flipping? This is your validation point. Once price sweeps liquidity and starts to reject the level, that’s your cue to get ready for the next part, the actual shift. 5. Displacement — The Real Move Begins Once the sweep happens, price doesn’t just drift, it snaps back hard. This is called displacement. Displacement is a sharp, clean move in the opposite direction of the stop hunt. This is when market structure breaks, momentum shifts, and a fair value gap usually forms. This is your confirmation that the setup is live. The sweep happened, smart money entered, and now the market is moving with intent. You don’t want to chase the displacement candle itself. Instead, wait for the retrace. Look for price to come back into the fair value gap or an order block left behind by the impulse. That’s your entry point. Make sure: Structure is broken in your direction The move away is impulsive, not choppy You’re not forcing an entry on a weak pullback This is the only part of CISD where you actually take the trade. Everything else is just setup. How to Manage Risk and Entries Once you’ve got a valid setup, here’s how to manage it: Entry: Enter on the CISD or wait for the pullback into the fair value gap or order block. Enter on the reaction or confirmation. Stop Loss: Place it just past the low or high that got swept. If you’re long, your stop goes below the stop hunt candle. If you’re short, it goes above. Take Profit: Target the next liquidity level. That could be the other side of the range, a swing high or low, or an inefficiency in price. You can scale out if price approaches a session high or low, or hold for a full range expansion depending on the session. Final Thoughts The CISD model works because it’s built on how the market actually moves, not indicators, not random patterns, but liquidity. Don’t jump in early. Don’t guess. Wait for the sweep. Wait for the displacement. That’s where the edge is. Once you get used to watching this play out in real time, you’ll start to see it everywhere. It’s in Forex, crypto, indices, any market that runs on liquidity. Stick to the rules. Let the model do its job. And remember: no sweep, no setup! ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this guide helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Education
by TehThomas
58
GBP/USD: Is the Bullish Impulse Over?The daily chart shows a significant bullish impulse that encountered strong resistance in the 1.3350 - 1.3400 area, where multiple supply levels and an important institutional selling zone are located. The bearish structure remains intact below this level, suggesting a potential decline towards the key support at 1.3100 - 1.3150. The short bias strengthens with the confirmation of resistance and the formation of a potential reversal. COT Report (USD Index and GBP/USD) USD Index: Non-commercial traders are slightly increasing long positions (+397) while reducing short positions (-128). This suggests a potential recovery of dollar strength, supporting a bearish move on GBP/USD. GBP/USD: Non-commercials have significantly increased short positions (+6,426) and reduced long positions (-2,957), indicating a bearish sentiment. Commercials also show a slight increase in short positions (+5,070), confirming potential weakness in the pound. Retail Sentiment 57% of retail traders are short on GBP/USD, with an average price of 1.2916, while 43% are long at 1.3343. This imbalance could indicate a market attempt to capture stops above recent highs before a reversal. Seasonality Historically, the month of May shows a negative performance for GBP/USD. The 5, 10, and 15-year seasonal data indicate a consistent decline during this period, supporting the hypothesis of bearish pressure.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
2025-05-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Clear trading range 19700 - 20300, don’t make it more complicated. We have FOMC tomorrow, then we will get a new impulse. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19700 - 20300 bull case: Bulls defended the gap below to 19650 and prevent the bears from printing a bearish daily bear bar. Bulls are fine with the market correcting sideways, since that increases the odds of a continuation up and running the stops above the prior major lower high 20536. Bulls need to break above 20070 tomorrow or this could slowly become more bearish again, especially when we make lower lows below 197300. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: Bears see it as a lower high major trend reversal and if they can stay below 20000, their odds increase to continue down. They broke below the first bull trend line and the next is around 19700 tomorrow. A strong 1h close below 19700 and I think more bulls will give up on this bounce. Invalidation is above 20100. short term: Neutral. Continuation in given range is expected until FOMC. I don’t know if Jpow can really move this but let’s see. Don’t gamble. medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year. trade of the day: Short since Globex open since Market could not get above 1h 20ema for 299 points down.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
"Nifty 50 Eyes Breakout from Key Support Zone"**Support Zone (Red Rectangle)**: * Strong support between ₹24,290 – ₹24,340. * Multiple price bounces have occurred here, indicating demand presence. **Resistance Levels**: * **Immediate resistance**: ₹24,409.65 (horizontal red line) * **Next resistance**: ₹24,494.45 **Support Levels**: * **Immediate support**: ₹24,290 * **Next support**: ₹24,240.65 **RSI (Relative Strength Index) – 14 Period** * RSI is at **36.25**, near the oversold region. * Indicates the index may be poised for a short-term bounce. * Positive RSI divergence is not yet confirmed but should be monitored. --- **Bullish Scenario**: * A breakout above the black descending trendline (\~₹24,360) with volume can lead to: * First target: ₹24,409.65 * Second target: ₹24,494.45 * Supported by wedge breakout and RSI recovery. **Bearish Scenario**: * Breakdown below ₹24,290 zone can trigger a fall to: * First target: ₹24,240.65 * Second target: Lower bound of ascending channel (\~₹24,060)
NSE:NIFTY
by Price_actiontaker14
GBPJPY - Crazy Bullish!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈GBPJPY has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue. Moreover, it is retesting a strong demand zone marked in green. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of demand and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As #GBPJPY approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TheSignalyst
18
GOLD - Smart Money Selling, Retail Chasing Longs📉 Technical Context: Price has reacted precisely to the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone between 3,386–3,442 USD, aligning with a clear weekly supply zone and imbalance. The current market structure suggests a potential lower high, with the first target around 3,060 USD, and the second near 2,880–2,900 USD demand. 🧠 COT Report (as of April 29, 2025): Non-Commercials (speculators) cut 18,519 long contracts, signaling waning bullish conviction. Commercials (hedgers) increased shorts by +9,848 contracts, maintaining a bearish contrarian stance. 📊 Retail Sentiment (MyFxBook): 65% of retail traders are short from 3,062, while 35% are long from 3,184 — ideal environment for a bull trap before reversal. 📅 Seasonality (Market Bulls): May is historically weak: 10Y: -9.98% 5Y: -12.21% Strength historically returns in June/July → a correction before continuation is likely. ✅ Conclusion: Technical structure, macro context, and positioning all align for a high-probability short. 📍 Entry Zone: 3,420–3,440 🔒 Stop: Above ATH (3,500) 🎯 Targets: TP1: 3,060 TP2: 2,900
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
#M30 BUYING MODULEIn this analysis we're focusing on M30 time frame for GOLD. Here we see clearly that price creates Bullish trendline and also price give respect to the trendline. According to price action and my analysis I'm expecting that price come back and retest my zone, and observe the reaction of price. If price give any bullish confirmation than we'll execute our trade. This is M30 time frame analysis once price reaches our zone switch to the lower time frame to find perfect entry point. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is my analysis. #XAUUSD 30M Technical Analysis Expected Move.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal
#GBPJPY UPDATES AND ANALYSISGBPJPY 4H Chart Analysis GBPJPY is exhibiting strong bullish structure on the 4H timeframe, with price currently forming higher lows and holding above a key ascending trendline. The marked demand zone around 189.94 has acted as a support area, suggesting potential accumulation before the next leg up. A bullish continuation is anticipated with three structured targets aligned at: Target 1: 191.773 Target 2: 193.320 Target 3: 194.832 The setup provides a favorable risk to reward scenario. A break and close below the demand zone and ascending trendline support would invalidate this bias. This is a higher time frame key levels. When price enters in our zone, look for confirmation in smaller time frame before executing your trades. Confirmation is key. This just my analysis. Use proper stoploss and proper money management for your trade. #GBPJPY 4H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
Long
by TradeTacticsreal