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#202503 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. Last week I noted that my bearish bias was probably not good since us markets were bullish enough and dax could not move below 20100. The big gap up on Tuesday was the first clue to refrain from shorts and on Wednesday bears gave up and we melted higher until Friday’s close. The upside is now probably very limited but it’s too early for most bears. My max target above is around 21200 and until bears print either a very huge down day or we had 2-4 days sideways to down movement with a retest of 20900/21000, I would not look for swing shorts. current market cycle: Bull trend (wedge or channel, difference does not matter) until we get below 20300 again. key levels: 20500 - 21200 bull case: Bulls are in full control since Wednesday and they will likely get 21000 and maybe a bit above it. Their problem is that they are buying high with multiple upper trend lines which could still be resistance. That argument is somewhat weak in the face of a strong trend and that is what we had last week. You never know how far they go but it’s climactic behavior and structuring longs above 20900 is tough. Longs only on strong momentum. Invalidation is below 20500. bear case: Bears gave up on Wednesday and they will probably wait for 21k and a reaction there. Never try to be the first bear. Let the big institutions show you where there is no more bid and then let the profit taking begin. V-reversals are so rare that you should almost never worry about them. Bears first target is the gap close 20675 and then the second body gap to 20574. Invalidation is above 21200. short term: Neutral. We have a clean channel/bull wedge up and we are very close to the upper trend line. Could go a bit higher before potentially reversing. 21200 is my max target. medium-long term from 2024-01-18: Market will likely hit 21000 and then it’s about patience to time the shorts right. current swing trade: Last swing short was not good but part of the game. I am waiting for bears to come around again. chart update: Marked potential targets for both sides.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
#202503 - priceactiontds - weekly update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 4th consecutive bullish weekly bar but the tails above are getting bigger (weekly chart). The volume is also increasing, which could be a sign of more participants thinking it’s a good time to scale into shorts and out of longs. If there would be a run on oil because macro reason xyz, volume would have been bigger already is what I reckon. Does not matter much though, because bears need to do more before we can turn more bearish. First decent pull-back will be bought, so it will most likely be better to look for longs after a pull-back than to try and pick the top. current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend key levels: 77 - 81 bull case: Bulls are in full control and want to break above the 2024-04 high 80.03. We are close enough to expect market to get there soon. Problem for the bulls is, this rally is parabolic and unsustainable. The last time we printed 5 consecutive bull bars on the weekly chart was mid of 2023. For now we can’t expect to see bigger bearish price action because bulls have been making money buying every small dip. Invalidation is below 76. bear case: Bears have made the first lower high which now looks like an ugly head & shoulders. I think the odds of this breaking down for a measured move to sub 72 are very low. Much more likely is that bears would exit fast on another push up and try again to keep it below 80. The current lower bull channel line runs through 75ish and it’s reasonable to expect a bigger pull-back over the next 1-2 weeks. Invalidation is above 80. short term: Bullish for 80 and then looking to short for a bigger pull-back down to the bull channel. A strong close above 80 would change my mind. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. Trade the bull channel until it’s clearly broken again. current swing trade: None chart update: Added potential bear targets.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
DOTUSD Plunge Alert Precision Short Targeting 10%+ Gains !The asset, DOTUSD, is showing a sharp bearish momentum with a decline indicating strong selling pressure. The current price is 6.905, while the short entry position aligns with a retracement after a peak profit zone 1. Trend Direction The price has broken below green channel, signaling a trend reversal from bullish to bearish. Red zones around the moving averages confirm the presence of downward momentum. 2.Entry Confirmation The short position appears to be placed after the market failed to hold its highs (Peak Profit 10.14%) and created lower highs, validating the short trade setup. Entry aligns with the rejection of resistance levels, suggesting a good risk-to-reward setup. 3. Risk Management Stop-loss is placed slightly above the sell zone, covering the recent swing high. This limits risk in case of price retracement. The profit target extends well below the entry, suggesting confidence in further downside potential. 4. Aetos Indicators A potential momentum-based or moving average indicator is being used to highlight peak profit areas, confirming optimal trade execution. The bearish engulfing candles in the sell region validate the short bias. Projection Target Zone: The profit target aligns with the 6.230 support level, indicating expectations of a 10% drop from the entry point. Downside Risk: If bearish momentum continues, there could be a breakdown below 6.230, extending losses toward 6.000 or lower. Analysis DOTUSD is experiencing a sharp bearish reversal after failing to hold its highs. The short entry capitalizes on lower highs and rejection near the resistance. Stop-loss is strategically placed above recent highs, while the target aligns with key support levels. This trade setup is supported by Bearish momentum. Clear breakdown below the moving average channel. High risk-to-reward ratio for short-term traders. Strategy Stay short below 6.905, targeting 6.230. If price retraces above 7.00, consider exiting the position. Always book profits partially and move SL to BE
BYBIT:DOTUSD.PShort
by wolfchemist
4
LINK on the Verge Bullish Breakout Sparks Momentum !Pattern The chart shows a descending wedge pattern. This is generally a bullish pattern, indicating potential price reversal or breakout to the upside. Breakout The price has broken above the upper trendline of the wedge. This breakout is a positive signal, suggesting that bullish momentum is building. Volume Confirmation Check if there’s an increase in volume during the breakout. A breakout with strong volume provides confirmation. Retest After a breakout, it's common for the price to retest the previous resistance (now turned support). Waiting for this retest can provide a safer entry point with reduced risk. Targets First target: The recent swing high near $24.50. Second target: $28.50, where there’s visible resistance. Risk Management Place a stop-loss below the breakout level or the lower trendline of the wedge in case the breakout fails.
BITGET:LINKUSD.PLong
by wolfchemist
6
CAD/JPY Rising Channel Breakdown Looms Bears in Play !Rising Channel Formation The price is trading within a rising channel, indicating a potential bullish continuation or a reversal depending on how the price reacts near the channel's boundaries. The upper boundary of the channel acted as resistance, where a rejection occurred, leading to a short setup. Golden Pocket Zone Around the 108.660–108.491 level, a "Golden Pocket Zone" is marked, indicating an area of potential caution due to increased market indecision. This zone aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels or historical pivot points. Support Levels A Good Trading Zone is identified between 107.248–106.780, which represents a potential support area for price reversal or consolidation. Wicks Pivotal Point near 105.851–105.817 serves as a critical demand zone where significant buying interest might reemerge. Short Position Setup Entry Signal: A Sell signal was triggered near the channel's resistance line, supported by a failure to break higher. The price also exhibited a rejection at a critical resistance level within the Golden Pocket Zone. Profit Levels The Peak Profit 0.22% label indicates a modest gain so far, suggesting a potential continuation if the price breaks below the channel support. A prior Peak Profit 2.96% was achieved on a similar short setup from a lower level, confirming the bearish potential within the structure. Target Levels First target: 107.248, aligning with the Good Trading Zone. Second target: 106.780, which is the bottom of the Trading Zone. Extended target: 105.851, Wicks Pivotal Point, for a more aggressive short. Stop-Loss Placement A stop-loss should be positioned above the Golden Pocket Zone (around 109.000) to protect against false breakouts or unexpected bullish momentum. Technical Patterns and Indicators Rejection Candlesticks The price formed bearish rejection candles near the channel's upper boundary and the Golden Pocket Zone, indicating strong selling pressure. Trendline Confluence The lower boundary of the channel intersects with the 107.248 level, adding confluence for a possible bounce or further breakdown. Momentum Analysis The price appears to lose upward momentum after several failed attempts to make a higher high, suggesting sellers are gaining control. This short position aligns with the current market structure, leveraging resistance levels, a rejection from the upper trendline, and bearish momentum. However, traders should exercise caution near the identified support zones and adjust stop-loss levels based on intraday volatility. A clear break below the Good Trading Zone could open the door to extended downside potential toward the Wicks Pivotal Point.
Short
by wolfchemist
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: The bull channel is clear and valid until broken. I do think a bigger pull-back is overdue but until then, bulls are in control. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2670 - 2770 bull case: Bulls want to print above 2761 and make a new high above the December high. If they can get it, we could see more upside to 2800 since there is no more resistance afterwards. the bull channel is tight and no matter how you count it, we had at least 3 legs up and betting on a 4th is a losing strategy in most cases. Invalidation is below 2700. bear case: Bears doing not enough and if they fail at 2761, we will go 2800+ again. Not much to interpret here. We are still in a bull channel on the 1h tf and bears would need a 1h bar close below the 20ema for a start. The previous times we got above 2740, we printed huge bear reversal bars and I am hoping for another one tomorrow. Bears are also seeing this as at least 3 legs up and they want another decent pull-back for at least 50 points like the prior ones. Invalidation is above 2765. short term: Neutral. Waiting for bears to come around here at big resistance. If they fail, we see 2800 soon. No bigger interest in buying this. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 1h tf at 2722 before EU open. Otherwise just any pullback to the 1h 20ema.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: After hours selling was strong, especially on nasdaq. Sp500 is still well above 5950, which is my line in the sand for bulls. Below the odds for the bears increase big time. I still lean bullish for a retest of 6000 and I do think bears need stronger selling (spike + channel) to trap late bulls. Today was a trending trading range where all bars overlapped big time. The odds that we break below such a day after that rally are very low. current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf) key levels: 5900 - 6030 bull case: Bulls want to chop around 6000 to find more acceptance and break above the big bear channel. Their next target is the prior high 6068. On the previous short squeeze we melted to 6068, pulled back hard for 60 points and then print a lower high. I still expect bulls to get a lower high closer to 6000, if not the breakout above. Invalidation is below 5950. bear case: Bears want to get below 5950 and then test the breakout price of 5918. The 50% retracement is also there at 5913. For now I don’t think today’s price action was that bearish but the after hours selling is weird to say the least. It’s a bad spot for both sides to trade at 5960ish. Invalidation is above 6020. short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. Again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 6000 was decent many many times.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
How I Stopped Missing The Best Trade Entries!!I’ll be honest—when I started trading, I had no idea what I was doing. I’d open a 15-minute chart, see what looked like a good setup, and jump in. Sometimes I got lucky, but more often than not, the market turned against me. I remember one trade in particular that still stings when I think about it. I was trading EUR/USD on the 15-minute chart, and I spotted what I thought was the perfect breakout. Without hesitating, I entered. An hour later, the market completely reversed, and I was stopped out. Frustrated, I zoomed out to the daily chart, and there it was: I’d entered a buy trade right into a major resistance zone during a long-term downtrend. That trade taught me a hard truth: if you don’t look at the bigger picture, you’re setting yourself up for failure. How I Changed My Approach After that trade, I knew I had to change how I looked at the market. I started using multiple timeframes, and it made all the difference. Here’s how I do it: 1️⃣ Start Big (Monthly and Weekly Charts): I always start with the monthly or weekly chart to get the big picture. Is the market trending up, down, or just moving sideways? Are we approaching any major levels that could cause a reversal? For example, if the monthly chart shows a strong downtrend, I know I’ll only be looking for sell setups. That keeps me from fighting the overall momentum. 2️⃣ Zoom In (Daily and 4-Hour Charts): Once I’ve got the big picture, I move to the daily or 4-hour chart. This is where I refine my plan. I look for key levels like support and resistance or patterns like consolidations and pullbacks. These timeframes help me figure out where the market is likely to go next, and they’re where I start building my trade idea. 3️⃣ Precision Entries (30-Minute and 5-Minute Charts): Finally, I drop to the lower timeframes—30-minute and 5-minute charts—to time my entry. This is where I wait for confirmation. Maybe it’s a candlestick pattern, a breakout with volume, or a pullback to a key level I spotted earlier. This part takes patience. There have been so many times I’ve almost jumped the gun, but waiting for that confirmation has saved me more times than I can count. My Secret Sauce Here’s the approach I stick to every single time: 1. Align with the bigger picture. If the monthly and weekly charts are trending down, I only look for sell setups. I don’t care what the smaller timeframes say—sticking to the big picture keeps me disciplined. 2.Identify key levels. On the daily and 4-hour charts, I mark the major support and resistance zones where the market is likely to react. 3.Wait for confirmation. When the price reaches one of my levels, I don’t jump in right away. I wait for the 30-minute or 5-minute chart to give me a clear entry signal. Here’s the real kicker: I’ve learned to walk away if nothing aligns. No trade is better than a bad trade, and patience has become my best tool. Switching to multiple timeframes has completely changed the way I trade. It taught me to be patient, to respect the market, and to stop forcing trades that don’t make sense. If you’ve been struggling with timing your entries or feel like you’re always one step behind, I get it—I’ve been there. Try this approach. Start with the bigger picture, work your way down, and let the market come to you. And if you’ve got questions or want to know more about how I trade, send me a DM or check out my profile. I’m happy to help—you don’t have to figure it all out alone. Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by Mindbloome-Trading
3
POSSIBLE BEARISH MOVEIn this analysis we are analyzing 2H time frame for gold. Today I'm looking and expecting downside move from the key level (2680 = 2690). Because as we know that market external trend was bearish and also price rejected 2700 area which is act like a resistance. Let's see what happen. Just wait for price when it comes into our zone take confirmation and trigger your trade. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. #GOLD 2H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEIn this analysis, we're examining the 2-hour time frame of gold. Looking closely, we can see the market has formed a parallel support and resistance level. Additionally, it has broken through both the previous CHOCH and the previous internal HIGH. This confirms that the market is currently operating within its internal structure. Based on my theory and approach, I’m anticipating a potential buying opportunity from this key area. Now, let’s watch closely to see how the market unfolds and which direction the price takes once it opens. Key levels: 2675 - 2660 Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. #XAUUSD 2H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal
2025-01-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral around 6000. Market is close to the daily 20ema, bear trend line and big round number 6000. I won’t even think about longing this but it’s obviously wrong to short too early. As long as bulls keep it above 5950, they are good and in full control of the market. Targets above are 6030 and then 5050. If bulls break above the bear trend line, there aren’t many reasons why we could not just melt to 6100+. comment: Huge bull day but right at multiple prior resistances. Bad buy no matter how you put it. I would actually not be surprised if we trade below 5950 or lower tomorrow. We have been going wildly up and down in this bear wedge/channel and that pattern is valid until clearly broken. current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf) key levels: 5900 - 6030 bull case: Bulls got the big move from the CPI news and they want to test the bear trend line and break above it. It’s just not a good buy and hoping for a breakout. I won’t make stuff up here. If bulls break above 6020, next target is 6068 and then 6100. Invalidation is below 5795. bear case: Bears need anything to stop the rally. They have good arguments with the daily ema, bear trend line and big round number 6000. They came around the prior weeks and until that bear trend line is broken, I expect them to keep this a lower high as well. It would be pretty funny if we completely reverse today before we go into the weekend. Invalidation is above 6030. short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 15m chart around 5956 was good.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra - Neutral and waiting for bears. New ath 20629 and market stayed above 20600, which is very bullish. Bears would need a miracle to reverse this over the next 1-2 days. We are once again at multiple upper bullish trend lines that should be resistance but market could just continue higher. I don’t have any interest in buying this but would need very strong signals to short this right now. I still think the bull wedge is the pattern to trade here and I wait for bears to come around. comment: What are the odds of 20629 being the high and we go down from here? Low at best. Since the overall markets have been choppy as hell, it’s not entirely out of the question that this could reverse strongly but I highly doubt it. current market cycle: bull wedge key levels: 20100 - 20700 bull case: Bulls got a new ath and now what? I have two trend lines that have room to be hit and one would even get us to 21000. Bulls want the obvious follow through and preferably stay above the 15m or 60m 20ema and just continue higher. Buying above 20600 is hard though. Stop would have to be at least 20420 and betting on this getting to 20800 is a stretch but so was making a new ath again. I got two measured move targets 20800 and 21000. Invalidation is below 20420. bear case: Bears pretty much did nothing since EU open and we can’t expect them to come around all of a sudden tomorrow. Best bears can hope for here is to stop the advance and go sideways until we get a new impulse. Trading consecutive bear bars below the 15m 20ema is their first target for tomorrow and if a miracle happens, retesting 20420 would be the next target. Invalidation is above 20650. short term: Neutral. Bullish if momentum continues and we stay above 15m or 60m 20ema. Bears can only get me below 20420 again. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None - cut my losses on last position. Need to see bigger bear bars first before thinking about it again. trade of the day: Could have bought anywhere and made money. Most happened due to news, so that’s always tough and I never gamble on it.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
7
BiTcoinThe corrective scenario is valid only if the $89,308 support zone is fully mitigated. After a single liquidity sweep into this level, we anticipate a bullish retracement targeting the $106,225 price range, where sell-side liquidity is expected to be tapped. Following this, a bearish continuation toward the $84,000 zone is likely. If the $89,308 support zone remains unmitigated and the $101,195 resistance zone is fully cleared, the probability of revisiting lower levels becomes invalid for now. That said, considering the current market structure and order flow, the bearish scenario appears more probable, but confirmation is still required. What’s your perspective on this?
Short
by BiTBingo