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#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Well, market has still to print 100k. It would be really funny if market could not get it because everyone and their dead dog is expecting it. So here are my thoughts… I do think it’s obvious we print 100k and maybe a bit above but my expectation is a complete crumble afterwards and I would not be surprised if we see 70k in January or February. You won’t get any bullish bias or outlooks on this from me for some time. It is too early to short this, yes. Do. Not. Be. The. First. And don’t try to pick tops. Ever. Did not change the Bitcoin outlook since Market has not changed. Quote from last week: comment: Market has yet to print the 100k. I think it’s highly likely that we print it and a bit above but after that it’s down to hell for all I care. No more bullish targets from me. I will be waiting for this to go do hard and will enjoy permabulls going apeshit writing about “another amazing long opportunity” and “it’s just a pullback” while this will half over the next 6-12 months. comment : No updates after previous week tbh. Market went sideways and we still have to print 100k. Market could do another pullback to the daily 20ema before getting there but it could also very well just spike up there and sell off. As long as it trades above the daily ema, bears have zero arguments for anything but scalps between 90k - 100k. current market cycle: Bull trend - blow off top to 100k - after that it’s likely over key levels: 90000 - 100000 bull case: Bulls only objective is to keep this market above 90k and print 100k. That’s it. Still. I would not even be sure about a retest of it after a pullback. Nothing on that case changed since past Sunday, so I kept it. Technically a measured move could go all the way up to 111k but let’s see what we do when we print 100k and go from there. Invalidation is below 90000. bear case: Still nothing. Don’t even try to come up with something until bears get a daily close below 90k. Invalidation is above 110000. outlook last week: short term: I think we can do 100k but Would you really want to risk about 6-10k points for making 3k ? R:R right now is not good anymore. Around 93k-94k and the bull trend line it’s ok again. → Last Sunday we traded around 97075 and now we are at 97327. Market went nowhere inside given range. Outlook was ok. short term: Neutral between 90-100k medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: 100k and then on the second sign of weakness, will short it to 50k. Remember, there will be people, just like in 2021 who bought all the way down and there positions were -50% or more and those legends told you to buy more all the way down. Will happen exactly like that in 2025 again. If you don’t book big profits on it’s way to 100k, don’t you cry when your position is underwater again. current swing trade: None chart update: Adjusted current bull channel, which is also an expanding triangle and a wedge. All patterns are valid for now.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
Link, breaking. If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! #Link another dino bag. Can move in the background whilst I focus on others. Coming into the highly contested $20 area. So far, it's been breaking and flipping levels. $20 would be a yuge flip! Need a big push to suggest this is a wave 3, $100 link if it plays or it could just be a ZZ up, at 2 degrees...break $20 and $40 first. Trade safe, trade smart, trade clarity.
Long
by CryptoKnee
1
2024-11-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures - Same as for dax. Retest of yesterday’s open price and bears could only correct sideways and biggest dip was 5 points. Big bull trend line was support and we are on our way up. I expect 6040 and probably higher. If not tomorrow then next month. We have a perfect channel upwards which leads 6100+. I don’t think bears can even get below 6015 again. If they do, 6000 has to hold or we could have seen the highs. comment: Not much difference to my dax outlook. Relentless buying today, ath in sight and a decent channel upwards. Bears need something below 6000 to make bulls cover. Big bullish bias for me. Possible that we stay around 6000-6050 for November, to then do the Santa rally somewhere in December. Closing 2024 above 6000 would be amazing for bulls. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 6000 - 6050 (above 6050 comes 6100 in play) bull case : Higher lows and higher highs. Clear invalidation price given and big resistance above. I doubt bears can get this below 6010/6015 tomorrow. Only longs for me. If we stall around 6040, you should have a tight stop and from a r:r perspective, new longs above 6040 are bad. Invalidation is below 6010. bear case: Bears need something below 6000. That’s it. How likely is that? Look at the daily chart. Is there any bearishness in there? Invalidation is above 6050. short term : Bullish. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Could have bought pretty much anywhere.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-11-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Max bullishness. Bulls bought it all today. We barely made higher highs and are still under 19500 but every small dip was relentlessly bought. Bulls also defended the Globex gap and that fact + that we closed right at the highs is the strongest buy signal going into tomorrow there is. I expect a quick move abov 19500, followed by some sideways movement before we go for 19600 and I don’t think it can prevent a new ath either tomorrow or next week. I only get bearish below 19350. comment : Bulls set up a big breakout for the coming days. Every dip was bought and we closed at the highs. Easy validation levels now. 19519 was high of the week and we will likely hit it tomorrow for some sideways movement afterwards. Very bullish for 19600 after that. If we drop below 19380 again, means the bull trend line broke and we have many support prices between that and 19300. Do or die for the bulls here. Fail and down to 19300 or lower. Break above and likely 19600 and new ath. current market cycle : trading range key levels: 19300 - 19600 bull case: Bulls want the breakout above 19520 and they are perfectly set up to get it. Measured move from today brings us almost exactly to the ath 19802. There. Are. No. Coincidences. Invalidation is below 19350. bear case: Bears need to stay below 19500 to have a reasonable chance of going more sideways and then down below 19350. Below that, they will likely gain more momentum and go down to 19300 or 19200. Until then, they have little arguments on their side after today. Market now closed 4 consecutive bars above the daily 20ema and bears could not even close the Globex gap today. That is so bullish because it’s so rare, you can not think about shorting this until bears have shown strength again. Invalidation is above 19520. short term: Bullish. Expect a meltup. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Longs only. Every dip buy made you money.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
2024-11-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra - 19300 was crushed early and we tested 19200 and given yesterday. Market tried to reverse it but failed below the breakout point. That’s bearish on one hand but we closed above the daily and 1h 20ema. Bulls need 19500 and bears 19100. We are trading right in the middle of it and that zone is death for your account. Wait for a strong breakout. It will likely happen tomorrow. comment: Market hit the midpoint of this trading range and went back above 19300. We are in no mans land between 19200 and 19400. Bearish below, bullish above. Break above 19350 tomorrow and we will see 19400 and likely 19460 afterwards. Fail at 19200 and we go down to 19000. Absolute in balance is what this is, so no bias on my end. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19200 - 19400 bull case: Bulls need a 1h close above 19350 for higher prices. That’s all there is to it right now. Invalidation is below 19250. bear case: Bears want to stay inside the bear channel and test 19200 again. We are seeing many converging lines for tomorrow, so it’s reasonable to hope for a bigger trend day tomorrow. Invalidation is above 19350. short term: Neutral. Clear levels given, hoping for a big day tomorrow. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Short from the open, which was a bit unexpected imo. Market then formed clear and expected support at 19200, which was a good long for 200+ points.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-11-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Market tested the 50% retracement to the tick and reversed up. It also closed above the daily 20ema, so bulls remain in control but barely. Clear triangle on the daily chart and it has room for 1-2 more days but it could also break out big time tomorrow. current market cycle: Bull trend but also nested triangle on the daily chart key levels : 20500 - 21500 bull case: First target is a break above 2100 and we would likely see giving up by the bears then and no more resistance until 21340. If bulls fail here and the bull trend line from August breaks, market is free to crash down to 18000. Invalidation is below 20500. bear case: Bears need strong follow through selling below 20700 or we won’t see lower prices. 20850 is around the mid point of the triangle and my line in the sand for bears. If they manage to keep it below, we could test down to 20700 and maybe break below. Invalidation is above 21000. short term: Neutral. Either wait for a bigger breakout or play the range. medium-long term: If we stay above 20500, will likely rally more into year end before a bigger correction. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling the US open. Market traded below the 2m 20ema for 240 points down.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2024-11-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin - Almost 10% correction now. How many bulls bought above 95k for 100k and have their stop below 90k ? My guess is a lot. I still think this is just the usual liquidity grap before another big move up. 87k - 93k is a dead zone for me. We have support with the previous pause around 87k and daily 20ema at 89k. If you see strong buying with follow through, you have to get long if you want to see the 100k. Below 85k I think it’s not unlikely that we crash down to 70k and say goodbye to 100k for a couple of years. comment : I think the selling gets weaker and bears could soon disappear again. The bear channel looks good so far but every new low is heavily bought and that can continue for only so long. current market cycle: Still a bull trend as long as above 85000. key levels: 85000 - 100.000 bull case: Bulls need a reversal soon or this might accelerate. They are buying new lows and the pullbacks higher are 2000+ points. Tomorrow or latest Thursday we will either see an acceleration down or finally the big move to print 100k and probably some above. Biggest problem for bulls is the confirmation. It’s only above 94600 and that’s pretty far away from 91000. Can you long this at 92000? Sure but do you put your stop at 90000? 89000? I think the risk is too big that this get’s tested as well. As always, have a trade with bigger risk and higher probability or the other way around. Always comes down to preference. Invalidation is below 85000. bear case: Bears are decent in selling the 1h 20ema and every rip. How long can they continue? I don’t know. Pullbacks from the selling are getting bigger and stronger. I doubt we see another strong bearish day tomorrow. Bears have to cover above 95000 and above that we see an acceleration upwards. Below 90000 bears might get cocky. If you look at the daily chart, it’s still just a minor pullback to the daily 20ema. The gigantic bull gap from 73800 to 87500 is open and won’t likely be closed the first time we get down to 87500 again. Invalidation is above 110.000. short term: Still think it’s bullish but I need strong confirmation now. Max bearish below 85000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: 100k and then on the second sign of weakness, will short it to 50k. Remember, there will be people, just like in 2021 who bought all the way down and there positions were -50% or more and those legends told you to buy more all the way down. Will happen exactly like that in 2025 again. If you don’t book big profits on it’s way to 100k, don’t you fucking cry when your position is underwater again. current swing trade: Shorts will go brrrr soon. trade of the day: Shorting near the 1h 20ema or 94000 was decent.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
Will 90k Hold Bitcoin?Alright, so we couldn't quite tag 100k. Not surprising. 100k is huge psychological resistance and we can now see from on-chain data that long-term hodl'ers, which is defined as anyone who hodls BTC for 6+ months, have started to sell more rapidly as we approached that price point. So, we got our pullback as expected. Now, the question is how far down do we go? Will 90k hold us? Or will we go lower? Let's explore these questions a bit in this post using some basic technical analysis combined with our knowledge of past historical price action at the beginning of a bull run. First, let's review where some of these trendlines on my chart actually come from. That pink ascending trendline was made by connecting the wick top in April of '21 to the wick top in November of '21 and then extending it out infinitely to the right. In my last post, I stated that it would act as resistance. It did. But I also was unsure that it would hold us below for more than a few days. It didn't. There was enough hype in the market to break us to the upside. Now that same line should act as support. I would expect it to hold us up at least through Thanksgiving weekend here in the U.S. This may give altcoins enough time for one final pump. And as long as Bitcoin decides to remain above that line, altcoins should continue to shine. But, if Bitcoin's price decides to break below our trendline (I estimate that this will not occur until after this weekend), then altcoins will pull back more drastically as Bitcoin descends further. So, if Bitcoin breaks below 90k, where will it go? My guess will be that we drop to that second pink trendline below us somewhere around 75-76k. That trendline was drawn similarly to the way I drew the upper pink trendline. I drew a line from the wick high of November '21 to the wick of our most recent high of March this year. I then extended the line to the right. You can see from the chart that this was also a significant trendline because once the price broke above it, it sent, confirming the significance of the trendline. Now, the rationale for my timeline and potential drop increments includes the fact that markets tend to stay optimistic over the holidays here in the U.S., especially when we are in the beginning stages of another bull run. And that we are. Therefore, if we do drop further, I wouldn't expect this to occur until after Thanksgiving weekend. In bull runs, it is quite common to see 20%+ pullbacks while we move up. A drop to 76k would meet this historical pattern. Again, I don't have high conviction that we actually will drop to 76k, therefore, I am not shorting. But I am a bit softer on the longs at this point and have all my stops at appropriate placement. Subs, check the tracker for those details. My current stable holding is around 40%. Let's see how this all plays out. ✌️ Stew BTW, I haven't mentioned it in this post, but my year-end target is now 102-109k. And yes, even with any pullback, I still believe we'll get there. I'll write more about this in a future post.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
SasanSeifi|Bitcoin Hits $99,500 ATH: Will It Cross $100K Next?Hey there, ✌ As shown in the BINANCE:BTCUSDT 2-day chart, the price broke its previous all-time high (ATH) of $73,000, leading to an impressive rally that reached a new ATH at $99,500. This strong upward movement sparked optimism for further growth. However, after hitting this level, Bitcoin faced resistance and is currently trading around $92,400. Currently, a minor range is visible near the $90,000 price zone in the 2-day timeframe. If Bitcoin manages to hold this level and consolidate, it may enter a range phase. Following this phase, Bitcoin is expected to resume its upward trend, targeting $100,000 and $107,000. On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to maintain the $90,000 support and faces selling pressure, a correction may occur. In such a scenario, a confirmed breakdown below $90,000 could lead to further declines toward the $83,000 and $79,000 support levels. The $90,000 level is critical for assessing Bitcoin’s next move. A consolidation here could pave the way for more growth. Additionally, if Bitcoin ranges at this level, altcoins might also benefit from bullish momentum. 💢 Please remember that this is just my personal viewpoint and should not be taken as investment advice. I’d love to hear your thoughts and share opinions! Happy trading!✌😎 Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!✌
Long
by SasanSeifi
EURUSD - Do You Trade Gaps?Gaps can be powerful indicators for spotting potential price movements. They often represent areas where market orders overwhelm supply or demand, creating an imbalance. In this chart, I’ve identified a clear gap (imbalance) on the EUR/USD 1-hour time frame, and I want to share my thoughts on how you can trade them effectively. Why Gaps Matter: Liquidity Zones: Gaps often act as magnets for price action. The market loves to "fill" these areas to rebalance orders. Market Psychology: Gaps represent institutional activity where major players leave their footprint. Recognizing this can give you an edge. Clear Risk Management: Gaps provide clear levels for stop-loss placement and entry zones, making your trade setups precise. My Approach to This Gap: Gap Identification: On this EUR/USD chart, I spotted an imbalance near the 1.0433 area. Confluence: This gap aligns with my premium Fibonacci levels and is located in a significant bullish order block. This strengthens the validity of this setup. Bias Confirmation: After the gap formed, the price showed bullish intent, supporting my bias that the market could push higher to mitigate this imbalance zone. How to Trade Gaps: Be Patient: Wait for price to return to the gap area before entering trades. Impulsive entries can lead to unnecessary losses. Combine with Structure: Always ensure gaps align with your broader trend and other technical tools (e.g., Fibonacci, BOS, CHoCH). Risk Management: Use the gap edges to wdefine tight stop-loss levels and aim for a high reward-to-risk ratio. Conclusion: Gaps are not just empty spaces on the chart; they’re signals of what the market intends to do. In this case, if the price revisits the highlighted gap area, I’ll look for further bullish signs before entering a trade. What are your thoughts on trading gaps? Have you used them in your strategy? Let me know in the comments below!
Long
by Safaric
2
PARALLEL CHANNEL MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on daily time frame for Gold. Here we are using parallel channel and order block combine with price action. Let's see what happens and which opportunity market will give us. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is just my analyze or prediction. #XAUUSD 1D Technical Analyze Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal