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XAUUSD Head & Shoulders Breakdown – Bearish Target Ahead?This chart represents a detailed technical analysis of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe with a structured trade setup based on a Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern. Below is an in-depth explanation of the chart components, price action, and trade strategy. 1️⃣ Key Chart Patterns and Analysis A. Head and Shoulders Pattern (Bearish Reversal) This is a well-known bearish reversal pattern that signals a potential trend change from bullish to bearish. It consists of three peaks: Left Shoulder: A rise followed by a temporary pullback. Head: The highest peak in the pattern, showing strong buying pressure before reversal. Right Shoulder: A smaller rise compared to the head, indicating weakening bullish momentum. B. Neckline (Support Level) and Breakdown Confirmation The neckline (horizontal support level) is drawn across the lowest points between the shoulders. A break below the neckline confirms the reversal, triggering a bearish move. The chart suggests price is at the neckline zone, preparing for a breakdown. 2️⃣ Trendline and Support/Resistance Analysis A. Uptrend Trendline Break The price was following a strong ascending trendline (dotted black line). A trendline breakout has occurred, indicating potential trend reversal. This supports the bearish bias further. B. Resistance and Support Levels Resistance Level: Marked at the top of the Head region, which aligns with previous price rejection zones. Support Levels: First support (TP1 - 3,053.269): This is the first potential take profit level. Second support (TP2 - 3,030.556): The next target if price continues downward. 3️⃣ Trade Setup & Risk Management A. Entry Point (Short Position) Sell (Short) after the neckline breakout, ensuring bearish momentum is confirmed. B. Take Profit (TP) Targets TP1: 3,053.269 (Initial support target). TP2: 3,030.556 (Stronger support zone, deeper profit target). C. Stop Loss Placement Stop Loss: 3,150.726 (Above the resistance zone). This is a logical stop-loss placement, allowing price fluctuations without prematurely stopping the trade. 4️⃣ Overall Market Sentiment & Trade Bias Bearish Bias: Due to the formation of the Head and Shoulders pattern, trendline breakout, and weakening bullish momentum. Confirmation Needed: A strong bearish close below the neckline increases probability of downward continuation. 5️⃣ Final Thought – A High-Probability Trade Setup If neckline breaks, the trade is valid with potential for a 3%+ downside move. If price holds above the neckline, the pattern may fail, leading to reconsidering trade execution. This structured risk-managed approach ensures a strategic entry, controlled risk, and maximized profit potential. 📉🔥 Let me know if you need further refinements! 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
Trend Changing Pattern (TCP) ExplainedIntroduction One of the most important skills in forex trading is learning how to read price action and understand what the market is telling you. Price is not just numbers — it’s the collective perception of traders, making it the most reliable leading indicator available. Today, I want to explain a powerful concept known as the Trend Changing Pattern (TCP) — a crucial tool for identifying potential market reversals and shifts in trend direction. 📈 What Is a Trend Changing Pattern? In any trending market, whether it's an uptrend or downtrend, the trend won’t change easily. The strength of the trend and the timeframe you're trading on will determine how long it takes for a true reversal to occur. One key signal of a trend change is a shift in momentum: In an uptrend, when a momentum low forms during a pullback, it can be a sign that the trend is beginning to reverse. In a downtrend, a momentum high during a pullback can signal a potential bullish reversal. These are what we refer to as Trend Changing Patterns (TCPs) — moments where the structure of the market starts to shift. ⚠️ Watch for Manipulation After the TCP After a TCP appears, it's common to see price manipulation before the new trend fully takes hold: In an uptrend, price may return to manipulate the previous high before continuing down. In a downtrend, price often dips to manipulate the previous low before reversing higher. Being aware of this common liquidity grab helps traders avoid being trapped and instead position themselves in alignment with the new trend. 🧠 Final Thoughts Understanding how to spot and interpret a Trend Changing Pattern gives you a major edge in forex trading. It helps you stay ahead of the market and make informed decisions based on price action, not emotion. 🎥 In the video, I go into more detail about momentum highs and lows, and how to recognize these key patterns in real time. Be sure to check it out if you want to sharpen your trend reversal strategy. Wishing you success on your trading journey! 🚀
Education
by Charts247TradingAcademy
2025-04-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear trend line from 20536 broken again and market is probing higher to remain in a trading range at the lows. Bears need lower lows below 19300 tomorrow and bulls want to continue with the higher highs and higher lows. As long as the big bear trend line from 20452 holds, bears remain in control and see this as a more complex W2. To keep this possibility alive, the bounce has to stay below 20000. current market cycle: strong bear trend but currently in W2 key levels: 19000 - 20600 bull case: Bull wedge, stairs pattern, doesn’t matter what you want to call this, it’s not strong buying. We have deep pullbacks that retrace more than 60% of the move and we are barely making higher highs. If bulls want to hit 20000, they need a stronger breakout above this wedge and for now I doubt it. Bulls did good in trapping late bears hoping for bigger selling already but as long as bears can scale in higher and make money because we stay low, bulls are not winning this. Their next target is the big bear trend line around 20000 which is also close enough to the daily 20ema. Invalidation is below 18960. bear case: Bears can argue this is a retest of the breakout but they need to print a strong down day again soon. Otherwise this could lead to more sideways to up movement and break the bear trend line. For now the pullback is still minor, compared to the move from 20500 to 19000 and bears remain in full control until the bear trend line is broken. Problem for the bears is the weekly tf. We are at prior bigger support since market has not closed below 19000 since 2024-04. Bears don’t want to repeat the pattern from last year, where we went straight down for 4 weeks, to then rally 25% form low to high. short term: Slightly bearish around 19600 for trading back down to 19500 or maybe 400. Bull wedge is valid until clearly broken and as of now I think the odds for either side to break out are even. The closer we get to the big bear trend line, the better they become for the bears again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We don’t know if we have printed the W1 of the new bear trend or repeat the pattern from 2024, where we sold of very strong to reverse even more strongly and make new all time highs. Market needs a bounce and around 20000/20500 we will see the real battle for the next weeks. trade of the day: Big down, big up, big confusion. Buy low, sell high and scalp. Market clearly is not in trending mode since the pull-backs are too deep and every decent follow-through buying & selling is followed by disappointment. Best trade was buying near 19300, since it was bigger support yesterday and just a breakout-retest from Monday.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD(XAUUSD) -Weekly Forecast,Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast: 2772.38 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend. We will close our open trades, if the Midterm level 2772.38 is broken. OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD Technical analysis: A trough is formed in daily chart at 2832.55 on 02/28/2025, so more gains to resistance(s) 3100.00, 3150.00, 3200.00 and more heights is expected. Take Profits: 2833.00 2879.11 2955.00 3000.00 3057.40 3100.00 3150.00 3200.00 __________________________________________________________________ ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView, . . . . . . . . Hit the 'BOOST' button 👍 . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback in the comments below! (e.g., What did you find most useful? How can we improve?) 🙏 Your support is appreciated! Now, it's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Have a successful week, ForecastCity Support Team
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ForecastCity
28
Triangle Breakout in JPY/USD – Bullish Move Ahead?This TradingView chart represents a detailed technical analysis setup for the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the U.S. Dollar (USD). The main focus of the chart is a symmetrical triangle pattern breakout, a common formation that signals potential price movement. In this detailed breakdown, we will analyze the following aspects: Technical Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle Formation Support and Resistance Levels Breakout Confirmation Trading Setup Explanation Risk Management Strategy Market Expectations (Bullish & Bearish Scenarios) Conclusion & Trading Plan 1. Technical Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle Formation The chart showcases a symmetrical triangle, which is a continuation pattern that typically occurs in trending markets. It indicates a period of consolidation where buyers and sellers struggle for dominance, leading to an eventual breakout. Characteristics of the Symmetrical Triangle in This Chart: Converging Trendlines: The upper trendline (resistance) is sloping downward, showing lower highs. The lower trendline (support) is sloping upward, showing higher lows. Apex Formation: As the price moves closer to the triangle's apex, volatility decreases, creating a squeeze effect. Breakout Possibility: Once price reaches a critical point, a breakout is expected in either direction. Why is This Pattern Important? Symmetrical triangles suggest that the market is indecisive, but once a breakout occurs, it can trigger a strong price movement. Traders wait for the breakout direction to confirm the trade before entering a position. 2. Key Support and Resistance Levels Support and resistance levels are crucial for identifying potential entry, stop-loss, and target areas. Resistance Level: A horizontal resistance zone (highlighted in beige) is drawn at the top. This zone represents historical price rejection levels, where sellers have previously stepped in. A confirmed breakout above this level would indicate strong bullish momentum. Support Level: The lower support zone (marked in blue) acts as a buying interest area. Price has bounced off this zone multiple times, confirming it as a strong support level. A break below this zone would signal a bearish reversal. Trendline Support: The lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle also acts as dynamic support. If price respects this trendline, it suggests bullish strength leading to a breakout. 3. Breakout Confirmation & Market Reaction The most important part of the setup is the breakout, which occurs when the price successfully moves beyond the triangle's trendline resistance. Key Observations from the Chart: Breakout Zone: The breakout occurs near the right edge of the triangle (circled in red). The price breaks above the upper trendline, confirming a bullish breakout. Confirmation Candle: A bullish candle follows the breakout, confirming buying pressure. Traders should wait for a retest of the trendline before entering. Volume Consideration: Strong breakout moves are typically accompanied by a rise in volume, increasing the likelihood of follow-through. 4. Trading Setup Explanation This trade follows a trend-following breakout strategy, where traders capitalize on price momentum after confirmation. Entry Point: The ideal entry is just above the breakout candle. Traders can also wait for a retest of the broken trendline before entering. Stop Loss Placement: The stop loss is placed slightly below the previous swing low at 0.006652. This prevents excessive drawdowns in case of a false breakout. Profit Target Calculation: The profit target is set at 0.006795, which is calculated based on: The height of the triangle formation projected from the breakout point. The next major resistance level, aligning with historical price action. 5. Risk Management Strategy Risk management is a critical component of any trading strategy. Here’s how it is applied in this setup: Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): A good trade setup maintains an RRR of at least 2:1. If the stop loss is 33 pips (0.000033) and the target is 112 pips (0.000112), the RRR is 3:1, making this a high-probability trade. Position Sizing Consideration: Risk per trade should be limited to 1-2% of the total account balance. Leverage should be used cautiously, as breakouts can sometimes retest the breakout zone before continuing. 6. Market Expectations (Bullish & Bearish Scenarios) Bullish Scenario (Successful Breakout): ✅ If price sustains above the breakout level, it will likely continue to rally toward the target at 0.006795. ✅ A strong bullish momentum candle would confirm further buying pressure. ✅ If volume supports the breakout, trend continuation is highly probable. Bearish Scenario (False Breakout or Reversal): ❌ If price falls back inside the triangle, it indicates a false breakout. ❌ If price closes below 0.006652, bears take control, and price may drop further. ❌ A breakdown below the support level would shift the market sentiment bearish. 7. Conclusion & Trading Plan This chart presents a classic symmetrical triangle breakout trade with a clear entry, stop-loss, and target strategy. Summary of Trading Plan: Component Details Pattern Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Direction Bullish Entry Point Above the breakout confirmation candle Stop Loss 0.006652 (below support) Take Profit (Target) 0.006795 Risk-to-Reward Ratio Favorable (3:1) Market Bias Bullish (if price sustains above breakout) Final Considerations: Always wait for confirmation before entering. Monitor volume and price action for additional validation. Stick to the risk management plan to minimize losses. If executed correctly, this setup offers a high-probability trade with a strong risk-to-reward ratio, making it a profitable trading opportunity in the JPY/USD market.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Silver (XAG/USD) Rising Wedge Breakdown – Bearish SetupMarket Overview & Context Silver (XAG/USD) has been in a strong uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows over the past few weeks. However, recent price action suggests a potential shift in momentum as a bearish Rising Wedge pattern emerges. This technical pattern often signals a possible trend reversal or correction. This analysis focuses on a 4-hour (H4) chart, which provides a medium-term perspective for traders. The market has recently encountered a strong resistance zone, and multiple price rejections indicate a potential downward move. Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge Formation The Rising Wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that occurs when the price moves higher within two converging trendlines. This structure suggests that while buyers are still in control, their momentum is weakening. Key Characteristics of the Rising Wedge in This Chart: Uptrend with Weakening Momentum: The price has been rising, but the higher highs are becoming less aggressive. The slope of the highs is flatter compared to the lows, which indicates declining bullish strength. Converging Trendlines: The price is getting squeezed between support and resistance. This tightening range typically precedes a breakout, with a higher probability of a bearish breakdown. Bearish Implications: A breakdown below the wedge’s lower trendline confirms bearish sentiment. The price could drop sharply toward the next major support level if sellers gain control. Key Technical Levels & Trading Strategy 1️⃣ Resistance Zone (Supply Area) – $34.50 to $34.60 The price has repeatedly tested but failed to break above this zone. This confirms that sellers are active in this area, leading to multiple rejections. A strong supply zone, making it an ideal stop-loss placement for short trades. 2️⃣ Support Level (Demand Area) – $30.50 to $30.60 This level has acted as major support in previous price action. If the breakdown occurs, this is the primary downside target for sellers. 3️⃣ Stop Loss – $34.61 Positioned just above resistance to minimize risk exposure. Ensures that if price moves against the trade, losses are contained. Trading Plan & Execution 📉 Short (Sell) Setup – Bearish Breakdown Expected ✅ Entry: A confirmed breakout below the rising wedge’s support trendline (~$33.50 - $33.80). ✅ Stop Loss: Placed slightly above $34.61, ensuring risk control. ✅ Target: $30.56, aligning with previous support zones and technical projections. Risk-Reward Analysis Entry at breakdown (~$33.50) Stop loss (~$34.61) – Risk: ~1.1 points Target (~$30.56) – Reward: ~2.9 points Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~1:3, making this a highly favorable short setup. Confirmation Signals to Watch Before Entering a Trade 📉 Break and Retest of Support as Resistance If price breaks below wedge support and retests it as new resistance, it strengthens the bearish case. 📉 Volume Spike on Breakdown A sharp increase in volume when breaking support confirms strong selling pressure. 📉 RSI Divergence (Bearish Signal) If the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows lower highs while the price makes higher highs, it suggests momentum weakness and a pending breakdown. Potential Trading Scenarios 📌 Bearish Scenario (High Probability) – Breakdown Confirmation If the price breaks below the wedge’s lower trendline and closes below $33.50, it will likely accelerate downward toward $30.56. Traders should enter short positions and hold for the target while managing risk with stop-loss levels. 📌 Bullish Scenario (Low Probability) – Invalidating the Pattern If the price breaks above $34.60 and holds, the rising wedge pattern is invalidated. This would signal continued bullish strength, and traders should avoid short positions. Conclusion & Final Thoughts ✅ The Rising Wedge Pattern suggests a potential bearish reversal in Silver (XAG/USD). ✅ If the price breaks the lower trendline, a drop toward $30.56 is highly probable. ✅ Traders should wait for confirmation signals before entering a trade. ✅ Risk management is crucial, with a stop-loss above $34.61 to minimize exposure. 🔹 This setup presents a strong risk-to-reward opportunity, making it ideal for traders seeking short positions in Silver.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
XAUUSD Bearish Breakdown: Riding the Rising Wedge to Profit1. Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal) The Rising Wedge is a technical pattern that occurs when price makes higher highs and higher lows within converging trendlines. This pattern is considered bearish, as it usually precedes a breakdown when price fails to sustain the higher levels. The pattern is clearly visible as price moves within two upward-sloping black trendlines. The narrowing range suggests that buying pressure is weakening, and sellers are gaining control. A confirmed breakdown occurs when price breaks below the lower trendline, indicating potential further downside. 2. Key Technical Levels Resistance Level (Highlighted in Beige, Top Box) This area represents a strong supply zone where price has struggled to move higher. Each time the price reaches this level, selling pressure increases, pushing the price lower. The chart labels this as the Resistance Level, suggesting a potential reversal zone. Support Level (Highlighted in Beige, Lower Box) This is the previous demand zone, where price has rebounded multiple times. Once price reaches this level, buyers may attempt to push it higher. However, if this level fails to hold after the breakdown, further downside is expected. Stop Loss Level (~3,150) The stop loss is placed just above the recent highs. If price moves beyond this level, it would invalidate the bearish setup. Traders use stop losses to limit risk in case the market moves against the position. Target Level (~3,080) This is the projected downside target based on the height of the wedge. A measured move (calculated from the highest to the lowest point of the wedge) aligns with this target. It represents a potential 1.78% decline from the breakdown level. 3. Price Action & Trade Setup Breakout Confirmation: The price broke below the lower trendline, confirming a wedge breakdown. The bearish momentum suggests sellers are in control. Entry Zone: A good short-selling opportunity is identified after the breakdown and potential retest of the lower trendline. Risk Management: Stop loss at 3,150 (above resistance). Profit target at 3,080 (expected support). This gives a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. 4. Market Psychology Behind the Pattern Rising Wedge Psychology: The pattern forms as buyers push price higher, but each new high has weaker momentum. Eventually, selling pressure outweighs buying interest, leading to a breakdown. Resistance & Support Psychology: The resistance area acts as a supply zone where big traders sell their positions. The support zone may hold temporarily, but if it breaks, panic selling could accelerate the decline. 5. Possible Scenarios After the Breakdown Bearish Case (Most Likely Outcome) Price continues downward after breakdown. It reaches the 3,080 target with increased selling momentum. Confirmation of a bearish reversal pattern. Bullish Case (Invalidation of Setup) Price reclaims the wedge and moves back above resistance. It invalidates the bearish breakdown, stopping out sellers. A potential bullish continuation toward new highs. Final Thoughts This chart presents a high-probability short trade based on the Rising Wedge breakdown and resistance rejection. Traders can manage risk by setting a tight stop loss above resistance while aiming for a target at the next key support zone. The pattern suggests a bearish sentiment in the short term, favoring sell setups over buying opportunities. Would you like me to add further insights, such as Fibonacci levels or RSI analysis, to strengthen the trade idea? 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
2025-03-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not much to add on top of the tl;dr. Bear trend line is the do or die moment for bears tomorrow. Has to stay below 22600 or we go higher again. Very important day tomorrow, which will set the impulse for the next weeks. News could somewhat help the bears, since the global trade war is raging. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 22000 - 23700 bull case: Bulls want to break above the bear trend line around 22550. The reversal today was strong enough at prior support that this could get a second leg up, depending if we get a pull-back down and how deep it will be. Bulls are not favored at the bear trend line, so buying 22500 is bad for now. Invalidation is below 22400. bear case: Bears better hold that bear channel or we go to 23k again. The selling was amazing but then bears tried to stop the bulls but failed multiple times. Bulls just overwhelmed the bears and above 22400 they mostly gave up. Bears have hope now. We are still low enough that this buying can be seen as a retest of the breakout but for that market has to keep the bear gap up to 22700 open. Right at the bear trend line, bears are somewhat favored but since the channel up was so tight, most bears will wait for bigger confirmation which they might not get. Invalidation is above 22700. short term: Neutral. Bears need to sell near the bear trend line or we go higher again. I would want big confirmation before I join the bears again, since the buying today was so strong. Above 22600 bulls are favored for 22700 or higher. Below 22400 bears want to retest 22300 and the bull trend line (below is 22000 but I can’t see this going below that, at least for now). medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling the open was reasonable since market kept below the breakout 22600.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
USDCAD -Weekly Forecast,Technical Analysis & Trading Ideas Technical analysis is on the chart! No description needed! OANDA:USDCAD ________________________________________________________________ ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView, . . . . . . . . Hit the 'BOOST' button 👍 . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback in the comments below! (e.g., What did you find most useful? How can we improve?) 🙏 Your support is appreciated! Now, it's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Have a successful week, ForecastCity Support Team
Long
by ForecastCity
17
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ #EURUSD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸 For the last 2 weeks, EURUSD shows a strong bearish momentum. The price managed to break and close below a key daily support cluster. A strong bearish reaction that followed after its retest confirms a strong selling pressure. I think that the pair has a potential to drop lower this week. 2️⃣ #GBPUSD daily time frame 🇬🇧🇺🇸 In comparison to EURUSD, GBPUSD looks very stable. The pair is consolidating within quite a wide range on a daily. For now, probabilities are high that sideways movement will continue. Consider trading the upper and lower boundary of the underlined channel. Alternatively, a breakout of one of the underlined structures will give you a strong bullish/breaish signal. 3️⃣ #USDJPY daily time frame 🇺🇸🇯🇵 Looks like the market is returning to a mid-term bearish trend. The price is currently breaking a support line of a bearish flag pattern. A daily candle close below its support will provide a strong bearish confirmation. 4️⃣ #AUDUSD daily time frame 🇦🇺🇺🇸 I see a completed head & shoulders pattern on a daily. The price is currently breaking its neckline. A daily candle close below that will provide a strong bearish confirmation and suggest a highly probable bearish continuation. Do you agree with my market breakdown? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by VasilyTrader
1
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Textbook breakout below the bear flag and market is likely on it’s way testing previous lows below 80000. My target 75000 or even 70000 remain the same. What would bulls need to stop this? I highly doubt they can produce a bull surprise above 90000, so if they would go sideways above 80000 for the next 1-3 days, it could have been enough to stop the selling and keep the trading range 80000 - 89000 alive for some more. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 70k - 90k bull case: Only chance for bulls I see here is going sideways and stopping the selling above 80000. Otherwise I don’t have anything for them. They have touched the bear trend line 3 times now and failed. Did not change much to last week since market has not invalidated anything of it. Invalidation is below 70k. bear case: Bears need to close the bull gap down to 73800, no ifs or buts. If they do not create better selling pressure next week and close a daily bar below 80k, market has likely turned more neutral again and both sides have equal odds of the next impulse. Invalidation is above 94k. short term: Neutral. Need strong selling momentum again for me to join this. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. It’s happening. 70k/75k and then I expect a bigger bounce first. Then we will see if we can go lower or not. For now it’s very low probability that the big bull trend line from 2023-10 breaks anytime soon. current swing trade: Short since 85000. Stop is 89000 no matter where you go short here. chart update: Removed one minor broken bear trend line.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by priceactiontds
3
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls continued and surprised a bit with the follow-through. 3 consecutive bullish weeks now and market has touched 70 multiple times. 70-72 is my neutral target while leaning bullish below 68. Volume is atrocious but market is free to do whatever. Could see a retest of 66 as well as going higher for 72. Absolutely no opinion on this or interest in trading, other than small scalps. Look at the weekly tf and tell me how obvious everything is, be my guest. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 65 - 72 bull case: Bulls produce decent tails below daily bars and keeping the market above the daily 20ema and 69. Right now they have taken somewhat control of the market after many weeks of selling, likely due to bears being exhausted. Only a daily close above 70 would change my assessment though. Sideways is more likely for me and I have no bigger interest in buying at 70 when it could be the high of a potential trading range 65 - 70. Invalidation is below 65. bear case: Bears sold the market relentlessly for 2 months straight and do seem exhausted. Right now they want to keep 70 resistance and since this is the first decent bounce the bulls got, the odds of this going much further up are low. It’s still a bear flag on the weekly tf and a retest of 65/66 is possible. Daily close below 68 would make me look for shorts for 100-200 ticks lower but that’s about it. Invalidation is above 71. short term: Neutral around 70. Bulls need a daily close above and bears something below 68 again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed last bear trend line, market is neutral at 70.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Last week I wrote that we need a proper channel down and the past week was the worst case scenario for the bulls. We could not even get to the 50% retracement and turned down violently again. There is a small chance for the bulls to make this a double bottom and go sideways but as of now that is very very low probability. More likely is that we have formed the top of the channel and will get a big second leg down to 18000 or lower. If we go down below 19000, my thesis is that we go down for 2 more weeks and then earnings will decide on the next impulse. For now the technicals are clear, market could not even retrace 50%, we turned around the daily 20ema and volume on the down move is picking up again. Everything points to a bear trend. current market cycle: strong bear trend key levels: 19000 - 20500 bull case: Bulls running for the exits. They have some previous support at the 2024-09 low 19073 but that is most likely not stopping this freight train down. Next big support is at 18000/18100 which is my W3 target. Only question now is if we find buyers tomorrow who want to keep the market above 19000. It’s not impossible that we could see 1-2 more days of stalling around 19000 but given the current structure the selling is just too strong to look for any longs. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears have now erased about a year of gains and we are heading lower. Friday was another strong sell signal and bears now want to close the monthly bar at the very low to also produce a huge sell signal on the weekly and monthly charts. The selling is strong enough for at least a decent sized second leg and the measured move leads to 16200 which is between my year-end-special target of 17500 and the bull trend line from the covid lows. Plan for the next 2 weeks is the W3 and W4 where I expect W3 to hit 18000 and W4 could retest 19000. Invalidation is above 20600. short term: Clear bear trend now once we drop below 19000. W3 should get us to around 18000 while W4 could be good for a retest of 19000. No longs for me what so ever. Big bear trend line from 22450 has to hold. medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. Clear W1 of this bear trend. Market now has to close below 19000 to confirm W3. Depending on how deep W3 goes, W5 will either reach only around 17500 or the bull trend line around 16000. current swing trade: None chart update: Added most likely upper bear trend line and adjusted the 5-wave series.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: First 3 trading days of the week bulls tried to break above and failed at every higher high, printing an expanding triangle, which broke to the downside on Thursday. Outlook is tough. I want to lean bearish but there is still bigger buying coming through at new lows and betting on the bear breakout is just not a good trade. current market cycle: trading range - bull trend line is broken and market has failed to make new highs 2 times on the daily chart. key levels: 22000 - 23746 bull case: Bulls see it as a trading range at the highs and want to continue sideways until the next impulse could bring them higher again. They prevented the market from making lower lows, which is the only objective now. Once market makes new lows below 22400, the bulls know that the next support is likely the trend line around 22000, which is also the open gap close. I don’t have much else for the bulls. Narrative wise it should have made higher highs already and technically this market has turned neutral again. Invalidation is below 22400. bear case: Bears have plenty of arguments now to make lower lows and test down to 22000. If they fail again at a lower low, bears have to give up and let bulls take control again. We have a big open bear gap between 22900 and 23078. Bears have to keep this open and stay below the 4h 20ema if they want lower lows. They can even argue an ugly head & shoulders top and the measured move down would bring us to exactly 21000. If bulls would have been stronger, we would have made higher highs by now. We have seen enough strong rejections above 23000, volume has picked up significantly and US markets are falling like dead fish. Now or never for bears or we go higher. Invalidation is above 23000. short term: Neutral but bear at heart. I just won’t bet on the breakout but rather want to see it happen and only join after a retest broke down again. Previous support is too big to ignore and bears have not done enough for me to be more confident about them. Below 22500 the odds go up significantly for the bears and bulls need to recover 22900+ for more upside or at least going sideways instead of down. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement. current swing trade: Will join the bears below 22500 on good momentum for 22000 or lower. chart update: Bull trend line is gone and added bear gap
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
EUR/GBP Bullish Breakout from Falling Wedge – Buy Setup!Introduction This EUR/GBP 4-hour chart analysis presents a high-probability bullish trading setup based on a falling wedge breakout. A falling wedge is a reliable bullish reversal pattern, signaling that selling pressure is fading, and buyers are regaining control. The price has now broken out of the wedge, confirming potential upside momentum. This setup provides a well-defined entry, stop-loss, and target level, allowing traders to capitalize on the bullish breakout while maintaining a proper risk management strategy. 1. Chart Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bullish Reversal) The primary pattern on the chart is a falling wedge, which is a bullish reversal pattern that forms after a downtrend. It is characterized by converging downward-sloping trendlines, indicating that sellers are gradually losing momentum. 🔹 Key Characteristics of the Falling Wedge Pattern: Lower highs & lower lows within a narrowing price range. Decreasing selling pressure, indicating a potential shift in trend. A bullish breakout above the upper trendline confirms a reversal. Typically followed by a strong price surge, aiming for previous resistance levels. The price action confirms this pattern as it broke above the wedge's upper boundary, signaling the start of a bullish trend. 2. Key Technical Levels & Market Structure 🔹 Resistance Level (Target) – 0.84183 This level marks a previous strong resistance zone, where the price faced rejection multiple times. It serves as the primary profit-taking area for this setup. A successful breakout and close above this level could lead to further upside movement. 🔹 Support Level – 0.83154 This is the major demand zone where price previously bounced. Strong buying pressure emerged at this level, leading to the recent breakout. It serves as an important level to define risk and set stop-loss orders. 🔹 Stop-Loss Placement – Below 0.83154 A stop-loss is placed slightly below the support zone, ensuring a logical exit if the market reverses. This prevents unnecessary losses while allowing room for normal price fluctuations. 🔹 Entry Point Consideration Ideal entry: Around 0.83700, just after the breakout confirmation. Confirmation: A strong bullish candle closing above the wedge. 3. Trade Execution Plan: Long Setup 📌 Trade Idea – Bullish Setup 📈 Buy Entry: 0.83600 – 0.83700 (After wedge breakout) 🎯 Target: 0.84183 (Major resistance level) ❌ Stop-Loss: 0.83154 (Below support level) 🔄 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): ~1:1 📊 Risk Management Strategy Trade with discipline: Never risk more than 1-2% of your capital per trade. Adjust position size: Based on risk tolerance and account balance. Use trailing stops: To secure profits if price continues upward. 4. Market Sentiment & Price Action Analysis Prior Uptrend: The price previously had a strong bullish rally, indicating overall bullish strength. Corrective Move: The market entered a falling wedge correction, allowing for a healthy pullback before resuming the trend. Breakout Confirmation: The breakout above the wedge's upper trendline confirms bullish momentum. 📊 Factors Supporting a Bullish Move: ✅ Breakout confirmation above the wedge pattern. ✅ Higher buying volume supporting the move. ✅ Support level holds strong, preventing further downside. 5. Trading Psychology & Risk Considerations ⚠️ Key Considerations Before Entering the Trade: ✔ Wait for confirmation – Ensure a strong breakout candle before entering. ✔ Avoid chasing the price – Enter at a reasonable pullback level post-breakout. ✔ Monitor economic events – Watch for news that could impact EUR/GBP volatility. ✔ Follow a strict risk-reward ratio – Stick to your predefined stop-loss and target. 6. Conclusion – Bullish Outlook This falling wedge breakout on EUR/GBP suggests a bullish reversal, offering a high-probability long trade setup. The price is expected to move towards the 0.84183 resistance level, with 0.83154 as the key stop-loss level. ✅ Bias: Bullish 🎯 Target: 0.84183 ❌ Stop Loss: 0.83154 📊 Risk-to-Reward: ~1:1 📌 TradingView Idea Title & Description Title: 🚀 EUR/GBP Falling Wedge Breakout – Bullish Move Incoming! Description: 📈 Bullish breakout confirmed! EUR/GBP has broken out of a falling wedge, signaling a trend reversal. A long position above 0.83600 targets the 0.84183 resistance level with a stop-loss at 0.83154. Watch for strong bullish momentum! 📊💹 💡 Risk Management: Stick to your stop-loss, and don’t chase price action. Manage your trade wisely! 🔥
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
EUR/USD Double Top Analysis - Bearish Reversal Trade Setup This analysis highlights a Double Top pattern forming on the EUR/USD 4-hour timeframe, which is a classic bearish reversal pattern. The pattern signals a potential shift from a bullish trend to a downtrend, providing traders with a well-defined entry, stop loss, and target levels. 1. Understanding the Double Top Pattern A Double Top is a trend reversal pattern that forms after an extended uptrend. It consists of two peaks (Top 1 and Top 2) at approximately the same resistance level, followed by a break below the neckline (support level), confirming the pattern. Pattern Breakdown: Top 1 & Top 2: These peaks represent failed attempts to break higher, showing strong selling pressure at resistance. Support (Neckline): The price found support at a key level, where buyers initially stepped in, but eventually, this level was broken, triggering a potential downtrend. 2. Key Levels & Trading Setup 📌 Resistance Level (Bearish Rejection Zone) The resistance level is marked in the 1.09500 - 1.09600 range. Price action tested this zone twice (Top 1 & Top 2) but failed to sustain above it. The repeated rejection indicates that sellers are dominant in this zone. 📌 Support Level (Neckline Breakout Confirmation) The support level is marked in the 1.07700 - 1.07800 zone. The price bounced off this area initially, but later broke below it, confirming a bearish move. The breakout suggests selling momentum is increasing. 3. Trading Strategy – Bearish Setup 🔴 Entry Point (Sell Trigger) A short trade is confirmed when the price breaks below the neckline (support level) after forming the Double Top. The breakout confirms seller dominance and signals potential downside movement. 🚨 Stop Loss Placement Stop Loss is placed slightly above the resistance level at 1.09575. This ensures protection against false breakouts or price retracements. 🎯 Target (Take Profit Projection) The price target is calculated based on the height of the Double Top pattern. Target Level: 1.06639, aligning with the measured move from the resistance to the neckline. 4. Market Outlook & Risk Management 📉 Bearish Scenario (High Probability Move) ✔️ The market structure shows a strong bearish reversal with price failing to break above resistance. ✔️ The confirmed neckline break indicates sellers have taken control. ✔️ If the price continues lower, we can expect a move toward 1.06639. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Invalidation of Trade) ❌ If price closes back above resistance (1.09575), it would invalidate the bearish setup. ❌ This would indicate that buyers are regaining control, and the trade setup should be re-evaluated. 5. Final Thoughts & TradingView Tags Summary of Trading Setup: ✅ Pattern: Double Top (Bearish Reversal) ✅ Sell Entry: Below the support neckline ✅ Stop Loss: Above 1.09575 ✅ Target: 1.06639 ✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable 📌 Tags for TradingView Idea: #EURUSD #DoubleTop #ForexTrading #BearishReversal #SupportResistance #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexSetup #TradingStrategy
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
JPY/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Head & Shoulders Breakdown & BearishThis detailed technical analysis covers a Head & Shoulders pattern formation on the 4-hour chart of JPY/USD, highlighting a potential bearish reversal setup. The pattern suggests a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend, supported by a trendline breakdown and key resistance & support levels. 1️⃣ Understanding the Chart Pattern: Head & Shoulders (H&S) 📉 What is the Head & Shoulders Pattern? The Head & Shoulders (H&S) is a classic bearish reversal pattern that appears after a prolonged uptrend, signaling a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. It consists of three main parts: Left Shoulder: A peak followed by a retracement. Head: A higher peak, indicating the last strong bullish attempt. Right Shoulder: A lower peak, failing to reach the height of the head, showing weakening momentum. Neckline: A crucial support level that connects the lows of the shoulders. A confirmed break below this neckline is the trigger for a bearish continuation. 📊 Breakdown of the Pattern in This Chart Left Shoulder (First Peak): The price made a high and then pulled back. Head (Higher Peak): The market made another higher high but failed to sustain it, indicating exhaustion. Right Shoulder (Lower Peak): A weaker attempt to push higher, but price failed to break previous highs, confirming the loss of bullish strength. Neckline Breakout: The dotted trendline shows the ascending support that was eventually broken, confirming bearish momentum. 2️⃣ Key Technical Levels & Market Structure Understanding the important levels in the market is crucial for setting up an effective trade. 🟧 Resistance Zone (Supply Area) The resistance level, marked in a beige box, is located around 0.006800. Price was rejected multiple times from this zone, confirming strong selling pressure. The head of the pattern was formed in this region before a sharp drop. 🔵 Support Level (Neckline & Demand Area) The neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern was acting as support before being broken. This level was tested multiple times before the final breakdown. Once broken, it turned into a resistance level, meaning price may pull back to this area before continuing downward. 📉 Trendline Breakout (Bearish Confirmation) A dashed trendline was previously supporting the uptrend but was broken, confirming the bearish shift in market structure. This signals a trend reversal and a possible extended move lower. 3️⃣ Trading Strategy & Execution A well-planned entry, stop loss, and take-profit strategy is essential for managing risk effectively. 📌 Entry Strategy (Short Setup) Ideal Entry: Look for price to pull back to the neckline (previous support turned resistance). Confirmation: Watch for bearish candlestick patterns such as: Bearish engulfing Pin bar rejection Shooting star Lower highs forming near the neckline A rejection in this zone confirms seller dominance and a high-probability short setup. 📌 Stop Loss Placement The Stop Loss is placed above the right shoulder at 0.006725. This ensures protection from false breakouts or unexpected bullish moves. 📌 Profit Target Projection Take-Profit Target: The projected move suggests a target at 0.006493. This aligns with previous structural support, increasing its significance. The measured move for Head & Shoulders suggests that price could fall further after confirmation. Risk-Reward Ratio The Risk (Stop Loss): Around 50 pips. The Reward (Profit Target): Around 180 pips. This results in a Risk-Reward Ratio of approximately 1:3, making it an attractive trade. 4️⃣ Market Sentiment & Expected Price Movement 📉 Bearish Scenario (Most Likely) Price retests the neckline but fails to break above it. Sellers step in, rejecting the resistance level, leading to further downside. Price targets the next major support at 0.006493, completing the Head & Shoulders move. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Alternative) If price reclaims the neckline and moves back above 0.006725, the pattern is invalidated. This could lead to a bullish continuation back toward previous highs. In this case, traders should cut losses early and avoid forcing a short trade. 5️⃣ Risk Management & Best Practices 1️⃣ Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of your account per trade to maintain long-term profitability. 2️⃣ Confirmation Before Entry: Wait for price to reject the neckline resistance before entering short. Avoid entering too early without clear bearish signs. 3️⃣ Monitor News & Fundamentals: Major economic events, interest rate decisions, or central bank announcements could impact JPY/USD price action. 🔎 Final Conclusion: Bearish Outlook on JPY/USD The Head & Shoulders breakdown signals a trend reversal from bullish to bearish. The neckline breakout confirms seller control over the market. The best short entry is on a pullback to previous support (now resistance). Target at 0.006493, with a Stop Loss at 0.006725 ensures controlled risk. 📢 Trading Bias: Bearish 📉 💡 Watch for a retest & rejection before entering short.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
XAG/USD Rising Wedge Breakdown To Bearish Trade Setup1. Overview of the Chart This chart represents Silver (XAG/USD) on the 4-hour timeframe from the OANDA exchange. The price action has formed a Rising Wedge pattern, which is a classic bearish reversal formation. This suggests that a potential breakdown could lead to a significant decline in price. 2. Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge Formation A Rising Wedge consists of a narrowing price range with higher highs and higher lows, but the slope of the support line (bottom trendline) is steeper than the resistance line (top trendline). This signals weakening bullish momentum, as buyers are struggling to push the price higher, and sellers are stepping in. Rising Wedges typically break downward due to the loss of buying strength. 3. Key Technical Levels and Market Structure A. Resistance Level (Highlighted in Beige Box - $34.50 to $34.80) This zone has acted as a supply area, where price struggles to break higher. The price touched this level multiple times, failing to hold above it, which increases the probability of a reversal. B. Support Level (Highlighted in Blue Box - Around $33.50) This is a critical short-term support where buyers previously stepped in. A break below this zone would indicate a confirmation of the wedge breakdown and further downside potential. C. Stop Loss Level (Marked at $34.80) Placed above the resistance zone, ensuring protection if price invalidates the pattern and moves higher instead. This aligns with a logical risk-management strategy to minimize losses if the setup fails. D. Bearish Breakdown Projection & Target (Marked at $30.46) The projected target aligns with previous structure support, meaning price may find buyers around this level. This level is determined by measuring the height of the wedge and projecting it downward from the breakout point. 4. Trading Strategy & Execution Plan 📌 Short (Sell) Trade Setup: Entry: Enter a short position once price breaks below the lower trendline of the wedge with strong bearish momentum (e.g., a big red candle closing below support). A possible retest of the broken support could provide a second entry opportunity. Stop Loss: Set at $34.80, above resistance, to ensure the trade is protected against invalidation. Take Profit (Target): First target: $32.50 (psychological level and minor support). Final target: $30.46 (major support and full pattern breakdown projection). 5. Market Psychology & Confirmation Signals Why This Setup is Bearish? Price action shows higher highs but with decreasing strength, signaling bull exhaustion. The Rising Wedge is a well-known bearish structure, and its breakdown typically leads to a strong sell-off. Volume confirmation: If the breakdown happens with high volume, it strengthens the bearish case. What to Watch For? A decisive bearish candle closing below the wedge support confirms the short setup. If price retests the broken trendline and fails to reclaim it, it provides a second opportunity for entry. Avoid entering if price consolidates near resistance instead of breaking down. 6. Conclusion: Bearish Bias & Trading Edge The Rising Wedge formation suggests that Silver is losing bullish momentum and could break down. Key levels and structure provide a well-defined trade setup, ensuring a good risk-to-reward ratio. Traders should wait for a confirmed breakdown before entering a short position. 📉 Bearish Outlook – Price likely to drop toward $30.46 target ⚠️ Risk Management is crucial – Stop Loss at $34.80 🎯 Breakdown confirmation needed before entering short positions Would you like me to refine any part or add more insights? 😊
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
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