GBP/USD: Is the Bullish Impulse Over?The daily chart shows a significant bullish impulse that encountered strong resistance in the 1.3350 - 1.3400 area, where multiple supply levels and an important institutional selling zone are located. The bearish structure remains intact below this level, suggesting a potential decline towards the key support at 1.3100 - 1.3150. The short bias strengthens with the confirmation of resistance and the formation of a potential reversal.
COT Report (USD Index and GBP/USD)
USD Index: Non-commercial traders are slightly increasing long positions (+397) while reducing short positions (-128). This suggests a potential recovery of dollar strength, supporting a bearish move on GBP/USD.
GBP/USD: Non-commercials have significantly increased short positions (+6,426) and reduced long positions (-2,957), indicating a bearish sentiment. Commercials also show a slight increase in short positions (+5,070), confirming potential weakness in the pound.
Retail Sentiment
57% of retail traders are short on GBP/USD, with an average price of 1.2916, while 43% are long at 1.3343. This imbalance could indicate a market attempt to capture stops above recent highs before a reversal.
Seasonality
Historically, the month of May shows a negative performance for GBP/USD. The 5, 10, and 15-year seasonal data indicate a consistent decline during this period, supporting the hypothesis of bearish pressure.
Priceaction
Gold - This is still clearly not over!Gold - TVC:GOLD - just needs a moment to breathe:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
It is just incredible how Gold has been rallying lately. Just over the past 1.5 years, Gold is up another +80% and is creating new all time highs every month. Since these strong rallies continue a lot longer than most people think, Gold still has significant upside potential.
Levels to watch: $3.500, $4.000
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
2025-05-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Clear trading range 19700 - 20300, don’t make it more complicated. We have FOMC tomorrow, then we will get a new impulse.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19700 - 20300
bull case: Bulls defended the gap below to 19650 and prevent the bears from printing a bearish daily bear bar. Bulls are fine with the market correcting sideways, since that increases the odds of a continuation up and running the stops above the prior major lower high 20536. Bulls need to break above 20070 tomorrow or this could slowly become more bearish again, especially when we make lower lows below 197300.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Bears see it as a lower high major trend reversal and if they can stay below 20000, their odds increase to continue down. They broke below the first bull trend line and the next is around 19700 tomorrow. A strong 1h close below 19700 and I think more bulls will give up on this bounce.
Invalidation is above 20100.
short term: Neutral. Continuation in given range is expected until FOMC. I don’t know if Jpow can really move this but let’s see. Don’t gamble.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year.
trade of the day: Short since Globex open since Market could not get above 1h 20ema for 299 points down.
"Nifty 50 Eyes Breakout from Key Support Zone"**Support Zone (Red Rectangle)**:
* Strong support between ₹24,290 – ₹24,340.
* Multiple price bounces have occurred here, indicating demand presence.
**Resistance Levels**:
* **Immediate resistance**: ₹24,409.65 (horizontal red line)
* **Next resistance**: ₹24,494.45
**Support Levels**:
* **Immediate support**: ₹24,290
* **Next support**: ₹24,240.65
**RSI (Relative Strength Index) – 14 Period**
* RSI is at **36.25**, near the oversold region.
* Indicates the index may be poised for a short-term bounce.
* Positive RSI divergence is not yet confirmed but should be monitored.
---
**Bullish Scenario**:
* A breakout above the black descending trendline (\~₹24,360) with volume can lead to:
* First target: ₹24,409.65
* Second target: ₹24,494.45
* Supported by wedge breakout and RSI recovery.
**Bearish Scenario**:
* Breakdown below ₹24,290 zone can trigger a fall to:
* First target: ₹24,240.65
* Second target: Lower bound of ascending channel (\~₹24,060)
GBPJPY - Crazy Bullish!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈GBPJPY has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong demand zone marked in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of demand and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #GBPJPY approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
-1% GBPAUD & +2.5% GBPCHF Trade RecapsTwo positions I took over the last 10 trading days, both 4H entries, one long and one short.
FX:GBPAUD Short -1%
FX:GBPCHF Long +2.5%
Top down analysis explained in the video and also my thought processes behind playing both entries as limit orders to maximise R:R and protect stops much better.
GU-Tue-6/05/25 TDA-Tomorrow's Fed rate decision!Analysis done directly on the chart
Patience is key. Even when you're not
in a trade, have you ever asked why
price moved this way rather than other
ways at this specific time and period?
Knowing when not to trade or lower your
risks is as important as when you're placing
a trade simply because it can save you from
bad losses, mistakes.
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
GJ-Tue-6/05/25 TDA-Waiting for clarity,nothing more nothing lessAnalysis done directly on the chart
When there is fundamental uncertainty where
you don't have clarity, market will likely consolidate
or make tiny push. A lot of people don't understanding
this and will eventually enter trades that are difficult
to trade and manage. That's why understanding basic
fundamental is crucial to give you an extra edge in the market!
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
GOLD - Smart Money Selling, Retail Chasing Longs📉 Technical Context:
Price has reacted precisely to the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone between 3,386–3,442 USD, aligning with a clear weekly supply zone and imbalance. The current market structure suggests a potential lower high, with the first target around 3,060 USD, and the second near 2,880–2,900 USD demand.
🧠 COT Report (as of April 29, 2025):
Non-Commercials (speculators) cut 18,519 long contracts, signaling waning bullish conviction.
Commercials (hedgers) increased shorts by +9,848 contracts, maintaining a bearish contrarian stance.
📊 Retail Sentiment (MyFxBook):
65% of retail traders are short from 3,062, while 35% are long from 3,184 — ideal environment for a bull trap before reversal.
📅 Seasonality (Market Bulls):
May is historically weak:
10Y: -9.98%
5Y: -12.21%
Strength historically returns in June/July → a correction before continuation is likely.
✅ Conclusion:
Technical structure, macro context, and positioning all align for a high-probability short.
📍 Entry Zone: 3,420–3,440
🔒 Stop: Above ATH (3,500)
🎯 Targets:
TP1: 3,060
TP2: 2,900
#M30 BUYING MODULEIn this analysis we're focusing on M30 time frame for GOLD. Here we see clearly that price creates Bullish trendline and also price give respect to the trendline. According to price action and my analysis I'm expecting that price come back and retest my zone, and observe the reaction of price. If price give any bullish confirmation than we'll execute our trade. This is M30 time frame analysis once price reaches our zone switch to the lower time frame to find perfect entry point. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is my analysis.
#XAUUSD 30M Technical Analysis Expected Move.
#GBPJPY UPDATES AND ANALYSISGBPJPY 4H Chart Analysis
GBPJPY is exhibiting strong bullish structure on the 4H timeframe, with price currently forming higher lows and holding above a key ascending trendline. The marked demand zone around 189.94 has acted as a support area, suggesting potential accumulation before the next leg up.
A bullish continuation is anticipated with three structured targets aligned at:
Target 1: 191.773
Target 2: 193.320
Target 3: 194.832
The setup provides a favorable risk to reward scenario. A break and close below the demand zone and ascending trendline support would invalidate this bias. This is a higher time frame key levels. When price enters in our zone, look for confirmation in smaller time frame before executing your trades. Confirmation is key.
This just my analysis. Use proper stoploss and proper money management for your trade.
#GBPJPY 4H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
AAL in a massive Weekly Demand! OptionsMastery:
🔉Sound on!🔉
📣Make sure to watch fullscreen!📣
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
GOLD(XAUUSD) -Weekly Forecast,Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
2772.38 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 2956.50 on 04/07/2025, so more gains to resistance(s) 3357.00, 3500.00 and more heights is expected.
Take Profits:
2833.00
2879.11
2955.00
3057.40
3160.00
3257.03
3357.00
3500.00
__________________________________________________________________
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Now, it's your turn!
Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Have a successful week,
ForecastCity Support Team
2025-05-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Historic rally we are witnessing. This move is as unlikely, climactic and overdone as can be. Yet we only move higher. Can’t short this yet. Bulls in full control, don’t fight it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21000 - 24000
bull case: Bulls will likely go for 24000 over the next days. Since no bears are around, try to find any decent pullback to long until it stops working. I think bulls should keep this above the 1h 20ema or we might test down to the bigger trend line around 23000.
Invalidation is below 23300.
bear case: Bears need consecutive closes below the 1h 20ema. Simple as that. Then they can test the big bull trend line around 23000. Unless we get a huge news bomb bear surprise, this will most likely continue higher or at least the next bigger pullback gets bought. Bears are not making money at all, so don’t try to be the hero bear.
Invalidation is above 23550.
short term: Neutral. Will only long on a pullback to 15m or 1h 20ema and if market refuses to go down, as it did today with the 15m 20ema. I will become bearish below 23000 but only after market retested the highs and printed a credible top. A big bear news could change that but for now it’s unlikely.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is over. My rough guess for now is that we will stay inside this trading range 19000 - 24000 for much longer or until economic data becomes the shitshow I expect it to become over the next months.
trade of the day: Buying near the 15m 20ema.
BTCUSD – Discount Zone Play | Long Setup Loading📉 BTCUSD – 15-Minute SMC Breakdown | May 3, 2025
Bitcoin is cooking up something spicy inside this discount zone. All the ingredients are there for a bullish reversal — we just need the final confirmation to execute the long.
🧠 SMC Breakdown:
POI Identified: Price has broken into a key OB discount zone (61.8%–79%), tapping 70.5% and chilling near the 79% fib retracement.
Weak High: Noted above at ~96,950 – a liquidity target ready to get swept.
Price Structure: Series of lower highs and lows forming bearish structure, but no momentum break yet. We're in accumulation range.
🎯 Entry Criteria (Potential):
Wait for CHoCH (Change of Character) on lower timeframes (e.g., 1min or 5min) to confirm reversal intent.
Ideal entry = bullish engulfing or BOS from within the 70–79% zone
SL = below 95,900 (clear invalidation level)
TP = Weak High → 96,950+
RR Potential = ~1:5+
📌 Why This Matters:
Price is deep in premium vs. discount logic.
Smart Money loves entries in the 70–79% retracement zones — it’s the sniper's nest.
That Weak High = unfinished business. Expecting bullish expansion if this zone holds.
📊 Pro Tips:
Wait for confirmation, don’t blindly buy in the zone.
Look for signs of absorption or bullish reaction candles.
Always map invalidation level BEFORE entering.
🔥 Final Note:
This is the “load-the-clip” zone for Smart Money. No hype, just structure. If BTC reacts here, we could see a clean 1:5 RR into that Weak High.
💬 What do YOU think happens next?
💾 Save this setup – it’s textbook.
🔁 Share this with your trading squad & don’t miss the next wave.
EURUSD directional bias: BuyPrice has closed above a key 4h resistance level. Based on the higher timeframe direction, I am expecting price to continue upwards to the recent high (1.5568).
Please be aware that we have a USD Interest Rate release on Wednesday which could cause a lot of volatility in the market. Keep this in mind if you decide to trade this direction.
One Last Drop Before Take Off?Price is still in a pullback phase, and the next potential target zone is around 0.07488 – 0.07334.
We might see one last dip before BINANCE:STPTUSDT resumes its uptrend.
If the price reaches this pullback zone with a bullish divergence, that would be a strong confirmation for a possible reversal.
But even without divergence, we can still rely on candlestick patterns to signal a potential reversal at that level.
What do you think — will BINANCE:STPTUSDT bounce from this zone or break lower?
CHFJPY: Pullback From Support 🇨🇭🇯🇵
There is a high chance that CHFJPY will pull back from
the underlined intraday horizontal support.
As a confirmation, I see a bullish imbalance candle
after a release of today's Swiss CPI data.
Goal - 175.37
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
ORDIUSDT — channel, high risks, high rewards.ORDI is the first BRC-20 token based on the Ordinals protocol on Bitcoin. Since its launch in March 2023, the token quickly gained popularity and a significant market cap, being integrated into the Bitcoin blockchain. This integration is made possible through the Ordinals protocol developed by Casey Rodarmor. The protocol allows inscriptions - text, images, audio, or video - to be made directly on satoshis, the smallest unit of Bitcoin, giving Bitcoin new functionality that was not originally envisioned. You can now create NFTs and other digital assets and trade them directly on the blockchain.
____________
The token was listed at a fortunate time - late 2023 - amid overall market growth and positive sentiment. At the time, everything looked promising, but now the price has dropped by 94% from the zones where “hype was being sold.”
🔻 Structure:
The token is moving within a large descending channel. Recently, the price tested the outer support of this channel.
A local downtrend channel was also broken - its retest and a rise within the main trend are possible.
📊 Scenarios:
Retest and upward movement as part of a correction.
Consolidation in the current zone with a possible breakout to the upside.
Further decline amid overall negative market sentiment.
💥 Risks:
The token is traded on all major exchanges, including Binance. However, if it gets delisted (which has been happening more often recently), this is the main risk: loss of liquidity!
🎯 Approach:
With such tokens, it’s crucial to distribute volume wisely and accept risk in advance. I mark out interesting zones and place limit orders accordingly.
Considering the overall market and news backdrop, the token does have bounce potential, especially now that faith in the project is nearly lost.
💭 Opinion:
From my years of experience, I’ll say it again: the goal isn’t to guess where the price will go - it’s to be ready for it. Not everyone will understand that, but then again, not everyone consistently makes money in this market.
_________
📌 Not financial advice. This material reflects personal observations and a risk management approach.
GJ-Mon-5/05/25 TDA-No sense of direction at the moment!Analysis done directly on the chart
Respect to all those who struggle, try, fail,
try again and repeat over and over again.
If we don't fail, we won't even succeed!
Journal your journey, compared to yourself
1 week ago, 1 month ago, 3 months ago,
6 months ago, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years and so
on. The question is have your noticed some
good changes or improvements? If not, what
are you doing wrong and what can you improve?
From somewhere we have to start, right?
Comment down below your thoughts!
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
GU-Mon-5/05/25 TDA-Slowly approaching to daily support 1.32496Analysis done directly on the chart
Fed and BoE rate decision this week affecting
heavily on GU and other dollar and gbp related pairs.
Trade safe, stay informed with basic economic calendar
check. I personally use FXstreet economic calendar.
You can be very good at technical analysis but without
fundamental understanding you'll likely get a lot of stop
losses.
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y