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2024-11-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Most went sideways today and we got some marginally lower lows. That was decent enough to disappoint bulls who were used to BTFD for a long long time now. I do think some expansion of the current range is possible but I doubt we get a bigger breakout tomorrow due to US elections. Will the election effect the market big time? No idea but my guess is less than many expect. Can either side end the party for the 0.1% and make them sell their overvalued stonkz? Probably not but I am open to surprises. My guess is we will chop wildy back and forth, like today’s US open. Bears will likely get their second leg down, but it’s too soon. dax xetra comment: 50% pullback of the current range from Thursday’s low to Friday’s high is around 19260 and we closed 19260. Market is in balance at that price and I expect more sideways before we get another impulse down. To guess if we hit 19000 before 19350, is impossible and you should not trade based on those questions. Middle of the range is the worst place for trades, so wait. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18900 - 19400 bull case: My line in the sand for bulls continues to be 19400 and until they break that price, bears are in full control. For tomorrow I expect more buyers around 19000-19100 and I will continue to look for longs in that area, until it’s clearly broken. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears prevented bulls from printing 19400, which showed strength and bulls finally gave up around 2 p.m. cet where we broke below 19300. The selling was much weaker than Friday’s rally and already had 3 legs down. Maybe bears can push this down to 19000-19090 but I don’t think the odds are good to take that trade. Shorts above 19300 can work. Most important for now is to not get trapped into bad trades like shorting below 19200 or buying above 19350. Invalidation is above 19400. short term : Neutral. Market needs to move more sideways before we get another impulse, which will probably be down for a second leg. Will look for shorts above 19300. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 19350 since it was bigger resistance and market tried 3 times to get above and failed.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-11-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bitcoin - Neutral. Bears did good but I do think a pullback is imminent and could easily retest 70000-71500. This whole move is W1 of the next bear trend and any short with stop above 75000 is good. We will likely see 60000 in the next 1-2 weeks. comment: Bulls could spike this up tomorrow due to news but otherwise, they are done. This move down is W1 of the new bear trend down below 50000 (which is also still inside the big trading range). A pullback is around the corner and I would not sell below 67000 for now. There is still an open bull gap to 65800, which will likely be closed tomorrow. My two legged correction down (drawn on the weekly update) to 65000 is still valid. current market cycle: trading range on the weekly chart - new bear trend on the daily chart key levels: 65000 - 70000 bull case: Bulls need to stop this above 65000 or we could see some panic selling. I do think a retest of 73000+ is already out of the question. Best they can hope for is some short squeeze to 70000/71000 before we get another leg down. If they close Wednesday above 72000 I am wrong. Invalidation is below 65000. bear case: Bears doing really good, much better than expected and that can only mean that bulls are running for the exits and want their profits secured. A measured move down from here brings us exactly to 60000. There. Are. No. Coincidences. Invalidation is above 72000. short term: Neutral. Want to see a pullback higher to short this into oblivion over the next months. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03 : Mother of all double tops is what I expect to hold. So highs are likely in and we go down hard from here. 40000 is my target for the next 3-5 months. current swing trade: Soon trade of the day: Shorting 69000. Clear resistance and market tried 3 times and failed. Perfect head & shoulders pattern, measured move target down was 67000 and market reached it afterhours.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
XAUUSD Analysis | Upcoming Election...GOLD recently bounced off the key resistance zone whilst creating all time highs for the last 2 weeks before slowing down before the next quarter phase of $2,800 where we saw a pivot correction into what could be a inner descending channel of the overall long term bull trend. As price approaches a key support level which is met by several confirmations such as the EMA, Dynamic Trend, Lower BB + Latter half of this quarter phase we could see a short term pullback to test that newly created resistance and create a lower high inside the inner channel before descending to fulfil price at these confirmation levels of $2,700 and a suitable long entry point for the long term trend following the correct validations. In previous times following elections the precious metal has had corrections from its price which would increase the probability of this idea but it is still important to be patient and make sure to wait for suitable confirmations to unfold before looking at entries due to the volatility that will occur primarily watching price action to gain better insight into the market movements. If you like this analysis feel free to drop a like and comment your ideas about the upcoming direction of gold below :)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OfficialKieranTrewick
Solana (SOL) Bullish Setup Gaining MomentumTechnical Overview: Ascending support trendline: Solana (SOL) has maintained a consistent upward trajectory since September, forming higher lows that reinforce the bullish trend. Resistance Zone: SOL is now testing the critical $180-$190 resistance area, which forms part of a saucer formation, a pattern that often precedes strong upward moves. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $190 (critical breakout point) Targets: $220 (previous high), $275-$280 (extended bullish target) Support: Ascending trendline, below $180. Outlook: A break and close above the $190 level could ignite a major rally, with the next significant targets around $220 and potentially $275-$280 if momentum continues. With the current technical setup favoring bulls, the risk-reward is attractive for those looking to ride the next leg up. #Solana #SOL #PriceAction #Bullish #CryptoMarket
COINBASE:SOLUSD
by Richtv_official
1
#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Neutral between 68 - 72. Market is in balance inside this range and for now no side has clearly better arguments for a bigger impulse. Market formed another nested triangle inside the big one. Which means buyers and sellers are in balance. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls actually managed to hold it above 68 and the trend line but failed to close the bear gap completely. This leaves us in nowhere land between 70-72 and a proper triangle. Play that until it’s clearly broken. No more deeper analysis needed. comment : The trading range expanded some but not much. On the weekly chart the September and October lows do seem to be respected and holding but since bulls fail to trade above 72.33, we are forming more nested triangles inside the big one on the monthly chart. For now the range is 65 - 72.33 until broken. current market cycle: trading range (nested triangles on multiple tf) key levels : 65 - 72.33 bull case: Bulls need a daily close above 72.7 for a chance of retesting north of 75. Again. There is a very good chance last weeks low 66.72 can hold for now. Bulls made 3 higher highs the past 3 trading days but look at the bars. They scream weakness and the close below 70 was bearish as well. Bulls do not have many arguments here. Invalidation is below 65. bear case: Bears keeping this below 70 is much stronger than I expected this for the past 3 weeks. As long as they are not letting the bulls get consecutive bull bars above the daily 20ema, the bears remain in control. Yet I do think sideways is more likely than a break below 65. Last weeks price action was disappointing for both sides, which is why I continue to be neutral on this. Invalidation is above 72.3. outlook last week: short term: Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently. → Last Sunday we traded 71.78 and now we are at 69.49. Good outlook. short term: Neutral again. Clear range and bearish pattern with limited downside. Scalp and don’t overstay your welcome in positions. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Neutral. Bears got a minor pullback from the ath but only printed 1 decent bear bar before disappointment again. 2720 is probably next big support and I see the market rather moving sideways and retesting the highs before a bigger move down and a break of the bull trend line. Quote from last week: comment: Minor pullback by the bears but they can not get follow through selling and that is why we can only conclude higher prices. We are trading near the top of the bull channel but we can just continue to do so until we hit 2800, which is my next upper target. I do think around 2800 we will see some bigger profit taking. comment: Decent pullback now on the daily chart but still far above the daily 20ema. Friday’s rejection at 2772 was good enough to expect this to break below 2740 for the second leg down. Problem for the bears is, that even if they break below 2720, the downside is probably limited to the bull trend line from August. So clearly a tough spot to trade. Any long closer to 2700 is better than closer to 2750. Same logic for shorts, I think 2800 continues to be a good level to sell and market moves more sideways instead of another break above that price. current market cycle: bull trend but it’s getting weaker and we could already be in a trading range 2700-2800. key levels: 2700 - 2800 bull case: Bulls want this to stay above the previous support 2720 and move sideways between 2720 and 2800. It would show great strength if they would not let the market test down to the bull trend line and move sideways instead. If they do this for a couple more days, bears will give up and try again around 2800. For now I don’t see bulls breaking 2800 again, since the rally was very climactic over the past months. Invalidation is below 2680. bear case: Bears finally printed some decent bear bars on the 4h chart and they want a second leg down to test the bull trend line around 2700. There we can expect some sideways movement and a battle for the big round number. Until it is clearly broken, I favor the bulls to continue sideways to up again and that 2700 is support. Invalidation is above 2820. outlook last week: short term: Bullish for 2800. Again. → Last Sunday we traded 2754 and now we are at 2749. Perfect outlook, 2801 was hit on Wednesday and Thursday. Hope you made some. short term: Slightly bearish for a test down to 2700-2710. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03: For now I can’t see this breaking above 2800, since the rally was climactic. Until 2700 is broken, I expect sideways movement inside this range. Market should test down to the weekly 20ema over the next weeks/months but bears have absolutely nothing to show for since June and that’s why we can’t expect bigger selling until they clearly do more. current swing trade: None chart update: Added potential two legged correction down to 2700
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Bearish. 5730 was expected support and if bears are strong, 5800 stays resistance now. Expecting more sideways movement before another impulse down. Next target for bears is 5600 and bulls need a daily close above 5800. Thursday’s selling was strong enough for more downside but could also just have been distorted price action since it was end of the month. Friday was disappointing for bears already, which is why I think the selling is not as strong as hoped. Quote from last week: comment: Another disappointing week for the bulls. Big question now is the same as for dax and nq, was this the last before a deeper pullback or can we print 6000 before 5700? I don’t know and I am not going to pretend I do. Market is in breakout mode and the triangle has a bit more room to go. We simply need more price action because right now the market is in balance around 5870. comment: Reasoning here is almost identical to dax and nasdaq. Selling was strong enough for a second leg and a measured move leads down to 5555, which is near the 50% retracement. I won’t repeat the same stuff here what I wrote for dax. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5700 - 6000 bull case: 6000 remains bulls target but if we get a daily close below 5700, we will likely see 5550 before 6000. If we stay above, we will continue sideways. Invalidation is below 5700. bear case: Bears need to keep the pullback shallow and probably below the daily ema 5830. If they manage, their next target is 5670 which is the weekly 20ema and below that is 5555 for the measured move target, 50% retracement and July low. Invalidation is above 5830. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Bearish below 5820 for 5800, below 5800 we likely see 5730. Bullish above 5860 for 5880+ and above 5930 we will see 6000. → Last Sunday we traded 5846 and now we are at 5758. Outlook was ok. short term: Neutral until we break below 5700. I favor some more sideways movement before the second leg down but it should stay below 5830. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update: Added current valid bear trend lines and a potential bearish wave series down to 5555.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: Bearish. Bears finally got some follow through lower and got near 19000. Next they want to keep the pullback shallow and get a second leg down to weekly 20ema around 18800 which is also where the next bull trend line is on my chart. There we will see if it was low enough for bulls to buy or if we have to get even lower to 18000. Bulls need to get above 19400 and bears below 19000. Quote from last week: Market closed 200 points lower than last week but was mostly range bound. Bull trend line and the daily 20ema are still intact and we did not get the expected breakout. Market has absolutely no more room to inside the pattern. End of September market was at 19470 so we have a month of going nowhere behind us. Was it bulls scaling into longs for 20000 or bears scaling into shorts because the upside potential is probably very limited? Very likely both. Going into next week I can’t be anything but neutral until we see one side clearly giving up. The one thing that's clear on the weekly chart for the past 12 weeks is that bears only managed to print 1 bear in between bull bars. So 3 out of 13. That is really something and we should not expect it to end until it very clearly does. Don’t try to be the first. comment: Big week for the bears since they broke the bull rally and most recent trend line, which turned the market neutral at previous support. Now comes the most important price action for the coming weeks. If bears get their strong second leg down, we will see 18200 in November, if we go sideways from here, odds drop for the bears and market is probably ranging more at the highs. It would also keep the possibility alive to print 20000 this year. The timing of the selling was in between very good earnings and mediocre outlooks. If we continue down, this would probably mean funds want to secure profits in this year and the selling could accelerate. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18200 - 19700 bull case: Bulls did a decent job at keeping the market above 19000, which was important to disappoint eager bears from Thursday. If they now can trade above the daily 20ema and 19300, it would further weaken the bear case and we would likely continue inside the current trading range. 20000 is still the target for the bulls this year. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears showed some signs of life and we are now at the big decision spot 19000. Bears need to get better momentum going if they want to print below 18500. Above 19500 I can’t imagine many bears holding onto shorts because the risk of trading above 19700 are too great then. A measured move target down would lead to 18300 and that aligns with a 50% retracement and the September low. That is my preferred path forward over the next 1-2 weeks. Invalidation is above 19400. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Clear levels to break for both sides. → Last Sunday we traded 19463 and now we are at 19254. Ok’ish outlook. short term: Bearish for a second leg down, as long as we stay below 19400. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade : None chart update: Changed two legged correction into 3 legs down, target is the same for now.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Short
by priceactiontds
forget 70k level, look out for this importanlevel to surpass... As I mentioned in my previous analysis, I don’t care about reaching 70k; what matters to me is if it can break past the zone at $71,890. Everyone is excited that BTC is back at 70k (myself included), but guess what happened next? The price touched my line at $71,890 and didn’t break through! This is simply because I see more difficulty here, as it's a zone with a greater concentration of institutional orders and has historically been strongly rejected. These last three candles give me the impression that the bear market is nearing its end, so keep a close eye on the upcoming week. But remember, it’s just an impression — the price is always trying to tell us something through its candles, and it’s our job to interpret it correctly. Best regards, and let’s hope that’s the case!! TRADE SAFE!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RocketMike111
Bitcoin Uber Bear If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Uber Bear update. Followed path and patterns laid out 1 month ago. If you are at the hard right edge, and the market followed the path laid out and reacts in an area identified, does that mean the #Elliottwave count is 100% correct? No, need the PA to prove it. A continued swift move down and break of 65k, will add weight to this variation. Trade Safe, Trade Clarity.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CryptoKnee