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#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Full bear mode. Market closes exactly at the 50% pullback price 5420 and we could see some sideways movement before more downside. Any pullback should stay below 5535. 0 Doubt in my mind that we see 5000 in 2024. Quote from last week: comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565. comment : Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls best chance for a pullback is right here at 5420 which is the 50% retracement and close to the weekly 20ema. I do not think after a 10%+ rally, that they will fight the bears to keep it above 5400. Market is erratic to say the least. Best bulls can hope for on Monday is sideways movement and stopping the bears from printing lower lows. Invalidation is below 5390. bear case: Bears stepped aside completely on the move up but came back big time on Monday. Why did they short it on Monday? That is never important and ever a question you should try to answer because you simply can not and will not know. Ever. That is the inherent beauty of the markets if they are big enough. Too many participants to determine such useless thoughts. The height of the bars tells you that there is very strong selling going on because people want out. Invalidation is above 5540. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs. → Last Sunday we traded 5661 and now we are at 5419. I let you decide the value of the given outlook last Sunday. short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Big ABC correction was good so far. Let’s see how low we can go.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Full bear mode. Bull trap and of August after making a new ath. Market is clearly in a hurry to go down again. Stairs up, elevator down. Most likely the bear gap to 18750 will stay open and every short sl has to be around that price. 1. tp is 50% pullback 18000 and as of now I expect a pullback there or more sideways movement. Below 18000 we will see 17400 fast. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls printed a new ath and if you would look at the RSI, which I don’t, it would show a divergence. You really really don’t need the RSI to tell you that. Even so, market could go higher and there is no reason to short this yet. I am 90% certain this is not a W1 of a new bull trend that will break above the bull wedge but rather a retest of the highs, in this case a higher high, and it will reverse soon enough. A bigger pullback is overdue but that does not mean you can short this yet. comment: Selling is already too strong for a pullback in a bull trend. We are in a big trading range and on our way to test the lower range somewhere between 17000 - 17500. Do we get there in a straight line like we went up in August? Highly unlikely but so was the climactic selling and the insane reversal over the past 5 weeks. current market cycle: big trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: As expected, the first decent selling on Monday and bulls are running for the exits. Climactic buying, followed by climactic selling. I don’t expect the bulls to fight this, like the bears did not fight anything from 17400 to 18990. The 50% pullback at 18000 is a decent target where the bulls could try to stall it and hope for a bounce. At this point it’s useless to try to call a top or anything beyond the next 2 weeks. If anything, it’s 50/50 if we make another ath this year or not. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears came around right below 19000 and produced strong enough selling to trigger many stops. Bulls are fearful that we test all the way back down to 17000 and that’s why we don’t see much resistance from them. In any bear case over the next weeks, the bear gap to 18730 has to stay open. On the weekly chart it’s now an expanding triangle which is a form of a trading range. To hit 17000 over the next 1-2 weeks would be amazing for the bears again but I highly doubt they could get the market below, without any serious deterioration of macro schmackro stuff. Something has to break for this market to trade back to not maximum overvalued bubble territory. If you don’t think dax above 18000 is bubble territory while gdp is -0.3% for 2023 and flat at best in 2024, I can’t help you. Invalidation is above 18700. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again. I’m confident we will reverse soon but it’s too early to be looking for shorts. Bears need to start making lower lows and lower highs before I start. What do I need to go long? Only scalps after pullbacks for me. Very little interest in buying up here because I do not see this going to 19200. → Last Sunday we traded 18906 and now we are at 18301. It was too early for shorts last Sunday but during Tuesday’s session it became clearer that the market wanted to go down. short term: Bearish but only on momentum again. Any pullback has to stay below 18700. Next targets for bears are 18000 and below that is 17500. Fun times ahead. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Decent to be in swing shorts now. Stop has to be 18700 or even 19000. Will join the bears on Monday, if they go straight below 18270 or on a decent pullback to 18500. chart update: Nothing. Removed the bull wedge and added the bear gap.
XETR:DAXShort
by priceactiontds
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: The drawn bull gap is now tested the third time in 2 months and at some point it will break but betting on breakouts in trading ranges is a losing strategy. R:R is on the bull side until bears get a daily close below 52400. Also a clear bear trend line, so look for weakness if we get a pullback to it. Quote from last week: comment: Second atrocious outlook in a row. Will do my best to not make it a third one. Staying away from this for now. Last week we closed at the highs, which was a breakout and past week we are on our way closing at the lows and even went below last weeks low. Market has absolutely no idea where it wants to go. Erratic price action with a absolutely flat weekly ema. 56000 - 64000 is a dead zone to me. comment: Bears finally broke below the erratic zone and we are back below 55000. So far, every time we got here, bulls refused to let the market get a daily close below 53900 and as of now it’s still the case. That means that bulls are defending the bull gap to 52400 with passion and until that changes, we are at the lows of the trading range that has been going on for 7 months now. Market is technically making lower highs and lower lows, so we are in a bear trend but it’s weak. Selling below 55000 was a bad trade so far and there is no reason to expect it to be different this time. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 49000 - 60000 bull case: Bulls who bought 55000 on the previous 2 tries made money and I expect them to continue to do so. If we have a daily close below 52400, many bulls will probably give up on that notion but for now it’s support. Bulls need to get back above the daily ema above 58000. Invalidation is a daily close below 52400. bear case: Bears printed big consecutive bear bars below 57000 and want a retest of 49111. They desperately need a daily close below the bull gap to close it. We are currently in a very broad bear channel and a smaller one for 2 weeks. Bears are in control as long as they stay inside the smaller bear channel and below 57000. Invalidation is above 57000. outlook last week: short term: Neutral and not touching this until a clear strong breakout with follow through. → Last Sunday we traded around 58600 and now we are at 54300. Market continued to be neutral on Monday and Tuesday, so outlook last Sunday was good. short term: Neutral. Market is flat since late Friday. I want to short this but only near the bear channel line and below 57000. medium-long term: If bears can close the bull gap for good, we could see 40000 this year. If not, more likely we will see 65000+ again. current swing trade: None chart update: Added currently valid bear trend lines, the bear channel and a potential 5-wave series.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
NEIROETH: Completed impulse? Levels to watch!If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! There is a potential for an completed impulse up here, not the most ideal look and the 3 wave move up could mean there is a flat in the works... But I think the main level we have to watch is the 0.1168 area. A sweep of the level would be ok, but a break of the level could lead to it turning into resistance and a revisit of some lower prices. Trade Safe, Trade Clarity.
Long
by CryptoKnee
1
Link: Signs of life?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Bullish Take: Breakout Possibility: The price has been testing the downtrend line (blue line), and a potential breakout above could lead to a bullish rally. Key Levels to Watch: The next target after a breakout is the $10.812 level. Recovery Formation: The price is hovering near a critical support level at $9.910, and if it breaks and holds, this could trigger a bullish reversal. Bearish Take: Downtrend Still Intact: The price remains under the blue trendline, suggesting the downtrend is not yet broken. Support at Risk: If $9.910 fails to hold, the next support lies around $9.329, which could lead to further downside. Lower High Formation: The chart shows a series of lower highs, reinforcing a bearish sentiment unless a strong breakout occurs. In summary: Bullish outlook if price breaks the trendline and moves above $10.812. Bearish outlook if price breaks down below $9.910, potentially leading to $9.329. Trade Safe, Trade Clarity.
Long
by CryptoKnee
1
EURUSD roadmap for next week (must see it)hi im msnp thank you for reading this article please support us with follow and boosting this idea ok lets see some charts 1D chart: you can see that we were in a up trend and now we break the trend line are we making an ABC pullback in retest of TOP? or we can break the top? notice that whole chart showing a big trading range zone 4H chart : in 4h chart we can see a very good bull trend but look at end of trend bears was so strong that can break EMA so this is a warning for traders that may bull trend is about to end ok so bears are strong at least as bulls 1H chart : we can see a break below the trend line and now we are making LH and LL we can shape a bear channel you can see a good reaction at top of channel, for next week we can expect 2 or 3 scenarios: 1. a double top at current price and go for LL 2. testing the top and then a double top 3. bulls can break above H and above the TR that means a new bull trend.
by imMsnP
DOG: Leash Yanked. If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Bull Thesis: Five-Wave Structure: A completed five-wave structure labeled as wave (5) suggests a possible end to the correction, followed by a potential bullish impulse. ABC Correction Completion: The corrective ABC pattern seems to be nearing its end, indicating the possibility of a trend reversal upwards. Support at 0.0010845: The chart shows significant support around 0.0010845, which could serve as a base for a potential rally if prices hold above this level. Bear Thesis: Price Target of 0.0009633: The chart indicates a downside target of 0.0009633, showing potential bearish pressure if the current support levels are broken. Rejection at Resistance: If the price fails to break above the highlighted resistance areas, a deeper correction could occur, pushing the price down towards the lower support levels. Strong Resistance Zone: The area around 0.0011732 acts as a strong resistance, and repeated failure to break through could lead to a bearish reversal. In summary: Bullish if prices can break through key resistance at 0.0011732 and 0.0010845 and convert them to support Bearish if prices fail at resistance 0.0010845 and breaks lower towards the 0.0009633 target. Trade Safe, Trade Clarity.
Long
by CryptoKnee
2024-09-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bitcoin - Bear inside bar on the daily chart. Bears need a close below 55500 but they are in control anyhow. The bear channel is broad so both sides are making money. Best r:r trades are short near the daily ema which is currently around 59000. 53000 will very likely be hit over the next 3-10 days. comment: Bear inside bar on the daily chart. Bears need a close below 55500 but they are in control anyhow. The bear channel is broad so both sides are making money. Best r:r trades are short near the daily ema which is currently around 59000. 53000 will very likely be hit over the next 3-10 days. (Nothing to add to the tl;dr paragraph) current market cycle: trading range key levels: 53000 - 60000 bull case: Bulls are buying new lows and making money. They are keeping the bear channel very broad which is a sign of much two sided trading. I don’t think many bulls want to fight around 56000 which is still no mans land. We will probably see a stronger move down to 53000/54000 before more bulls will buy heavily again. If bulls somehow manage to get above 60000 again, the bear case would weaken considerably. Invalidation is below 53000. bear case: Bears are selling the rips but also taking quick profits or otherwise we would not have this broad channel. Since we are near the bottom again, it’s either acceleration of the selling or back up to 57000 or even 58000. I expect one side to give up until we hit either bigger resistance or support again. I favor the bears to accelerate down to 54000 and there market decides if we stay in the trading range or make new lows. No deeper patterns to be analyzed currently. Broad channel with nested wedges which all broke above so far. Don’t get bearish at the lows. Invalidation is above 57200. short term: Slightly bullish around 56000 to produce some sideways to up price action. Below 55000 I am wrong and the selling accelerated and short’s are the way. medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. — current swing trade: None trade of the day : Globex sold off hard and market could not get above the 1h ema again. Any short near it was good. 56000 was previous support so you should expect it to still be support and look to take profits there or exit shorts completely.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
2024-09-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bears are selling the rips but most markets are contracting. Will most likely see a big move tomorrow but I don’t have a strong opinion on the direction. Very slightly favoring the bears for a bigger second leg down. dax futures comment: Y close was 18625 and today’s close was 18624. We oscillate around this price. Every time market does this, you are in a trading range and should not over analyze it. Look at the daily chart and get a sense of what the market is trying to do. Right now bears are in control but with every day of sideways movement, their control vanes and market becomes more neutral and I do think that if bears do not get their big second leg down started tomorrow, the chances of a break above or below are equal. current market cycle: trading range - wait for a clear breakout above or below given key levels key levels: 18500 - 18700 bull case: Bulls are making higher highs and higher lows but it’s still a tight bear flag on the daily chart. The bear gap to 18800 is still open and as long as that’s the case, bears are in control. Best bulls can do is make the market go sideways more until both sides are unsure about the next impulse, which means market is in balance. I think below 18500 most bulls will give up. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears are selling the rips but are not fighting for new lows right now. Market had is probably waiting for tomorrow’s US data to find more liquidity. No opinion on that data or the direction we will break out, other than I think bears are still favored for a second leg down. Should you be short right now in hopes of that? Clear no from me. Always better to get confirmation before entering the trade, unless you are good at scaling in and already rich af. Invalidation is above 18750. short term: Bears are in control and the odds favor a second leg down. Above 18700 I get more neutral and below 18570 I expect 18500 to follow soon and if bears break that, we will likely get the big second leg. Nothing changed in my short term outlook. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. Maybe tomorrow but only interested in shorts. trade of the day: Buying the open was by far the best one. Again. Don’t get bearish at the lows or bullish at the highs in trading ranges. Betting on breakouts is a losing strategy when market is this undecided.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
Dogs: Need to hop this fence. If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Bull Scenario: Break Above Resistance: If the price successfully breaks and holds above the 0.0010845 level, it could trigger bullish momentum. Target Levels: Bulls would aim for higher levels, with potential targets around 0.0012 and 0.00125. Higher Highs and Higher Lows indicates the trend at the smaller degree is up at the moment. Bear Scenario: Rejection from Resistance: If the price continues to reject from the 0.0010845 resistance, it could fall toward key support levels. Downside Targets: Bears would aim for the first support at 0.0009999 and then the next level at 0.0009741. Trend Continuation: Breaking the Lower Lows could lead to continuation of the down trend at the higher degree. Trade safe, trade clarity!
Long
by CryptoKnee
1
CRT RANGE MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on 15M time frame for GOLD. Here we are using CRT range concept in this concept we consider that each single candle has a range, so today I'm looking for potential sell according to CRT concept. After confirmation we will take any step. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio. #XAUUSD 15M Technical Analysis Expected Move. This is just my analyze or prediction.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
2024-09-04 - priceactiontds - short daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bearish bias confirmed. Bulls getting nervous by now. More bad data releases and markets are leaving bear gaps unclosed. Today we also made lower lows and the pullbacks were shallow. All good for the bears and the odds of another strong leg down and a measured move got higher today. dax futures comment: Bears kept the 140 point gap to Tuesday’s close open and that shows strength. Bulls could not get a bar above the 1h ema today and I’d be surprised if it stays that way. Bears are in control and they want a second leg down. A measured move would bring us to almost exactly 18000. Absolutely favoring the bears to do that instead of bulls getting above 18800 again. current market cycle: huge trading range (below 18500 the minor bear trend inside the range is confirmed) key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case : Bulls can be happy if they can keep the market going sideways. Today’s open price was not tested and we closed above the daily ema, which shows some strength by the bulls. For higher prices bulls need a strong 1h close above the ema and that’s all I can come up with for the bulls right now. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears have the big round number 18500 to break for lower prices. They are clearly in control again and they want to stay below the 1h ema for a measured move down to 18000. Below 18570 I expect many bull stops to be hit and we will test 18500 and there I expect bulls to come around more strongly again and trying to hold it. We already have a decent looking bear channel or wedge on the 1h tf. I want to see what the Globex session brings and then I will decide tomorrow morning if I do a swing short for 18000 with a stop 18800/18850. Invalidation is above 18750. short term: Bears are in control and the odds favor a second leg down. Above 18700 I get more neutral and below 18570 I expect 18500 to follow soon and if bears break that, we will likely get the big second leg. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Will decide Thursday morning if I do a swing short. 18000 would be my first tp and stop at least 18820. trade of the day: Buying the open was by far the best one. Otherwise shorting 18670 the next best thing.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
2024-09-04 - priceactiontds - short daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bearish bias confirmed. Bulls getting nervous by now. More bad data releases and markets are leaving bear gaps unclosed. Today we also made lower lows and the pullbacks were shallow. All good for the bears and the odds of another strong leg down and a measured move got higher today. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Many of the same arguments as for dax. Very strong leg down and bears want another one. Measured move target would be 5350-5370. Market closed 5 points above the open, so a big nothingburger but both sides made money today. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls made money today if they were quick to take profits but the problem is, that the pullback was not high enough to seriously question the bear case. Bulls need to fight for 5500 or we get the second leg down. Same easy if-this-then-that scenario for most indexes. Invalidation is below 5490/5500. bear case: Bears confirmed the leg down with lower lows and a shallow pullback, which they sold again. They closed below the daily ema and also left a bear gap open, though a small one. First target below 5500 is 5420 which is the 50% pullback from the bull rally. Invalidation is above 5666. short term: Bearish. Below 5500 I become full bear again but can also see this going a bit more sideways. I do expect this week to close deep red and below 5500. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope and will only do on bigger swing short it will probably be dax. trade of the day : Very strong open and longs were good. After that it was so two sided and no obvious amazing trade. In hindsight it was an obvious short but not as it was happening imo. Market had strong two sided trading during news releases. After bar 11 close I expected market to close nearer to the open price and scalped some shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
DOGS: Chance for redemption?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Bullish Scenario: What Needs to Happen: The price needs to break above the descending trendline and sustain above the 0.0010845 USDT support level. Target: Move towards the next resistance levels, potentially higher than 0.0011753 USDT. Bearish Scenario: What Needs to Happen: The price fails to break above the descending trendline and continues to respect it as resistance. Confirmation: A drop below the 0.0010845 USDT support level will confirm further bearish momentum. Target: Move lower, potentially testing previous lows, and further downtrend continuation. This analysis hinges on the price action around the descending trendline and key support/resistance levels. Monitoring these areas will provide clues on the next significant move for DOGS/USDT. Trade Safe, Trade Clarity.
Long
by CryptoKnee