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2025-01-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market is in balance around 94k. Bulls want to test the bear trend line and bears want to get below 94000 to test 90000 again. Market is contracting so don’t make this more complicated as it years. Trade near the extremes and not too much in the middle. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 90000 - 101000 bull case: Bulls had their second leg up but it was weak and market then went sideways below 97k. They need a break above 97400 for more upside and their next obvious target is the big bear trend line, which probably not many expect to be broken on the next hit. They are still trading above the 1h ema, so they are in control and favored for more upside until we trade below it again. Invalidation is below 89000. bear case: Bears need to close a 1h bar below the ema to turn the market neutral again. If they can make 98000 resistance, it would show strength and I don’t think many bulls will hold on to longs if we can’t make it to 100k tomorrow/Thursday. Otherwise bears do not have much on the higher time frames since Monday was so bullish. I expect more bears to come around closer to 100k. Always ask yourself if you had to have a position right now, which side would it be and where would your stop be? Being a bear here is hard because your stop would have to be 103k and that’s 6k points. 1:1 r:r would need to hit 91k. Really not an ideal trade. Invalidation is above 101000. short term: Neutral 94k - 98k. Bulls are in control as long as we are above 94000. We are in an expanding triangle inside a bigger contracting triangle. Market is in breakout mode and we will probably see a breakout later this week or next. medium-long term: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good. current swing trade: Want to see market closer to the big bear trend line and then more selling pressure before new shorts. trade of the day: Long since EU open was decent or any short near 9700 since market found no buyers above it. The long on EU open was because of strong momentum and a second leg up was expected after Yesterday’s very bullish price action. The 1h 20ema has not been touched at that point, which added to the strength of the bulls.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
2025-01-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. Strong by the bulls to keep the Globex gap open to 20326 but they failed at finding acceptance above 20420. We continue sideways until one side clearly gives up. We are still close to the middle of the bigger triangle so shorts need a stop 20622 and that’s far away. I still slightly favor the bears to rather trade back down to 20200ish than above 20500. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20200 - 20500 bull case: Bulls want to stay above 20300 and continue upwards to test 20500. They are in control as long as the Globex gap stays open. Bulls are also above most important 20ema and that means they are in control of the market. Their issue is, that they can’t find more buyers above 20400 and all daily bars since last week have decent tails above them. Bulls will only try so many times before more give up and want to short lower again. Invalidation is below 20300. bear case: Bears have a decent head & shoulders pattern that could break down over the next days. The measured move target is around 20150 which was Monday’s low. First target for them would be to close the gap to 20320 and close a 1h bar there. Bulls have bought every touch of the 1h 20ema and until that changes, we continue sideways to up. Problem for the bears is, that we could go up to 20500 or even 20550 to hit the bigger bear trend line. That stop is far away and likely a reason why bears scalp out near support. Invalidation is above 20500. short term: Neutral 20300 - 20400. Bears need a strong move below 20320 and bulls need to find acceptance above 20420. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: Scaling in and out of shorts. In above 20450 and out where market shows support (currently 20350). trade of the day: Buying close to the Globex gap was good for many longs. Also selling close to 20500 was a no-brainer since market went mostly sideways before and we had huge prior resistance 20500 and above.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
EURUSD OUTLOOKIn this analyze we are focusing on 4h time frame. As we can see, the price has formed a range and consolidation within a parallel channel on the 4-hour timeframe. Additionally, the price has broken the parallel channel to the downside. If the price retests and reaches our supply area, and shows a bearish rejection, we will execute a sell trade. Intraday traders can hold until Take Profit 1 or 2, while swing traders can hold for the full move. For now, this is my bias; let's see what opportunities the market provides once it opens. Make sure to use a stop loss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. #EURUSD 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Short
by TradeTacticsreal
EurUsd - This Will Impact Your Trading In 2025!EurUsd ( OANDA:EURUSD ) is heading much lower: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 For basically an entire year, EurUsd has been retesting a massive previous support which was then turned resistance. Over the past couple of months, we then saw a significant drop breaking all structure towards the downside and it is quite likely that this won't stop soon. Levels to watch: $1.090, $0.970 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
Short
by basictradingtv
11
ENA/USDT on the Edge Major Breakdown Signals Big Moves Ahead!The chart showcases ENA/USDT breaking down from a well-established channel pattern, signaling potential bearish momentum. This breakdown indicates a shift in market sentiment, as bulls have failed to hold the key support levels. The price action now reflects a retest of the broken channel's lower boundary, which is likely to act as a significant resistance area. ENA has exited the channel pattern, with the price moving decisively below the structure. This breakdown is a critical bearish signal, as it invalidates the previous trend's upward momentum. The levels of $0.84 and $0.89 will act as key resistance points. The $0.84 level represents the immediate resistance derived from the channel's lower boundary, while $0.89 aligns with a historical supply zone, where sellers are likely to dominate if the price approaches this level. A failure to reclaim these levels will reinforce the bearish bias, encouraging sellers to push the price lower. If the price fails to reclaim the resistance levels, the bearish breakdown could extend toward $0.73, which is the first significant demand zone, followed by $0.66, a mid-level support identified from previous accumulation zones, and $0.58, the ultimate bearish target if selling pressure accelerates. The breakdown has been accompanied by increased sell-side volume, indicating strong participation by sellers. Any attempts to reclaim the resistance levels must also show increasing volume on the buy side to invalidate the bearish structure. The breakdown below the channel has likely shaken bullish confidence. When the price retests the resistance zone between $0.84 and $0.89, short positions may dominate, targeting the lower support levels. Traders should watch for price action near the $0.84 to $0.89 resistance range. A clear rejection at this zone, coupled with low bullish volume, will confirm the bearish continuation. Conversely, if bulls manage to reclaim and hold above $0.89, it could invalidate the bearish outlook and signal a recovery toward $1.00. ENA/USDT has shown significant bearish signs with the channel breakdown and subsequent retest of resistance levels. The likelihood of further downside remains high unless bulls reclaim the $0.89 level. Traders should exercise caution and focus on price action around the key resistance and support zones for optimal trade entries.
Short
by wolfchemist
EthereumThe resistance level at $4165 has not been fully consumed yet. As long as the support area at $2982.5 holds, we can expect a bullish trend similar to the previous scenario. Currently, the probability of a bearish scenario and the consumption of the $2982.5 support level is much higher. If this support zone is consumed, we can expect to see the $2700 price range as well. At the moment, the $3060 and $2700 price zones are considered low-risk areas for buying Ethereum. What’s your take on this?
Short
by BiTBingo
EUR/USD Bearish Setup Short Opportunity at Key Resistance ZoneThis chart suggests a potential short setup for EUR/USD The price has been in a downward trend, making lower highs and lower lows. The current price action indicates a potential retracement towards the marked resistance zone near 1.02820 - 1.03117, which aligns with a possible supply zone. This zone could act as a strong resistance due to previous selling pressure. The price is likely to reject this resistance and resume the downward movement, following the overall bearish trend. A breakdown from the resistance zone could lead to a short opportunity targeting 1.01764 as the first support level. If bearish momentum continues, the price might further decline toward lower levels. Key levels to watch Resistance: 1.02820 - 1.03117 (entry zone for shorts if rejection occurs) First Target: 1.01764 (potential take-profit level) Stop Loss: Above 1.03117 (to protect against a breakout) Confirmation of rejection through candlestick patterns or bearish momentum near the resistance zone is crucial before entering the trade.
Short
by wolfchemist
2
2025-01-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Can’t write much new stuff. Still neutral between 20200 and 20300. Bulls were not strong enough to close the gap to Friday’s close but bears were not strong enough to keep it below 20300. We have a clear triangle on the daily tf between 20150 and 20500 and I do expect the market to continue inside for 1-3 more days. Very strong US session close and above 20300 I expect follow-through to 20400/20450ish. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20100 - 20500 bull case: Bulls want to close the gap to 20350 tomorrow and then more up to 20400/20450 and test the bear trend line. I highly doubt they can break above and test 20500. We stayed above the big bull trend line and the daily 20ema, so bulls did what they had to do. Market is contracting and that means a couple more days of sideways price action before another big breakout. Invalidation is below 20100. bear case: Bears tested the bull trend line but quickly gave up trying to push this below. Best they can get now is sideways and staying below 20350/20400. If they can manage, we can poke more at the bull trend line until one side gives up. My medium term bias is bearish, so I expect the triangle on the daily tf to break out below. Invalidation is above 20500. short term: Neutral 20200 - 20300. Bearish below for 20150 and bullish above for 20400. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: Took most off at 20180 and want to short again closer to 20400/20500. trade of the day: Selling the open because the selling pressure was very strong. Market then went sideways too much around 20200 and taking profits was reasonable. Buying the breakout above 20230 was also decent.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Strong buying into US close and I expect 5900 to be hit tomorrow or Wednesday. The bear channel is valid until broken, so I want to either long closer to 5800 or short closer to 5900. current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle on the daily tf) key levels: 5800 - 6020 bull case: Bulls want to hit 5900 again and the bear trend line from the descending triangle. Their breakout late today is reasonably strong to expect follow-through tomorrow. I would not be surprised if we see early weakness and then a lower high around 5830/5840 before we move higher. Invalidation is below 5795. bear case: Bears will likely wait for 5900 and the bear trend line before they initiate bigger shorts again. Overall we see more two-sided trading today than a strong bull trend, which means the upside is likely limited and prior resistance will hold. Bears want to hit 5800 and likely somewhat lower to retest the October and November lows. Invalidation is above 6030. short term: Bearish closer to 5900 to trade back down to 5800 and longs only on a decent dip below 5850 again for target 5900. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high. Clear range 5820 - 5840 which was amazing to trade back and forth.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Gold’s Bullish Surge Eyeing the $2,700 Breakout! The chart displays a bullish recovery following a significant downtrend, transitioning into an uptrend within a defined ascending channel. A symmetrical triangle breakout during the bearish phase marked the beginning of this upward movement. Key support is identified around $2,600, while resistance levels are at $2,697, aligned with the 100% Fibonacci projection, and $2,728, which corresponds to the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and acts as a potential exhaustion point. The psychological level of $2,700 plays a critical role as a resistance zone. The price is currently near the upper boundary of the ascending channel, suggesting possible resistance and a chance for consolidation or retracement. If the price breaks above $2,700, it could target $2,728 or higher, while a rejection might lead to a pullback toward the midline or lower boundary of the channel. The bullish momentum remains intact, and traders could consider entering on a breakout above $2,700 or on a retracement near the channel’s lower boundary. Targets lie at $2,728 or higher, with stops placed below the last swing low or channel support. This chart signals a strong bullish trend with critical action expected around the $2,700 level.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by wolfchemist
Bitcoin's Double Bottom Reversal1.Double Bottom Formation Bitcoin has formed a double bottom pattern, signaling a potential bullish reversal. The second bottom was created around $89,200, which acts as a strong support level. 2.Neckline Resistance at $91,200 The neckline of the double bottom pattern is at $91,200. A daily close above $91,200 is crucial to confirm the breakout and initiate an upward move. 3.Bullish Scenario If the price successfully breaks and closes above the neckline, a long position can be considered. The breakout could lead to a potential price target of higher resistance zones, depending on momentum. 4.Risk Management: If the price fails to sustain above $91,200, a retest of lower support ($89,200) could occur. 5. Key Levels to Watch Support: $89,200 Resistance : $91,200 (neckline) Bitcoin is showing signs of a bullish reversal from the double bottom pattern. Keep a close eye on the neckline breakout for confirmation before entering long positions.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PLong
by wolfchemist
#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. Big bull wedge or ascending triangle (does not matter which way you see it, both are correct) on the daily chart and we are in the middle of it. I do have a heavy bearish bias for dax but since we only printed 2 bear bars for the past 11 trading days, it’s not useful to be bearish. I do think it’s more likely we see 20100 and the top is in but I don’t expect US indexes to go down much more next week, so having a bearish bias might not be the most useful thing. We can’t expect the bull trend line to break on the next hit, given the recent bullishness, so my base assumption is a week inside the triangle and more chop. current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. Only a daily close below 19600 would be my confirmation for the trading range. key levels: small range for next week is 20000 - 20500 and big range for Q1 is 19400 - 20500 bull case: Bulls are still in control but have only seen rejections above 20400. They probably want to buy closer to the bull trend line and daily ema before they try another run at the ath 20522. We are close enough to it, that it’s possible we make another ath but the upside is most likely very limited. Bulls got their retest of the ath and made a lower high, all bullish targets are met and the retest-gods are pleased. Market is free to do whatever. Invalidation is below 19600. bear case: Bears kept shorting new highs and made money but they have not going much for them until they can break below the current bull wedge/triangle. As much as I want this to crash to 19000, bears are weak. Best outcome for next week would be if we stay below 20400 and close the week at or below 20000. Invalidation is above 20550. short term: Neutral. No interest in buying this and will continue to scale in and out of shorts. I would like to see 20000 next week. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: Continuing with scaling in and out of shorts. Currently holding a position with entry 20424 on futures (135 points above xetra). chart update: Added bear gap and still having my preferred path down as a two legged correction down to 19000.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
1
#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral but slightly bullish if we stay above 5800. Downside would probably be limited with 5800 but we could easily go back to 6000 again. If we get a daily close below 5800 I change my mind and the bull trend line around 5750 would be the next lower target. Overall the probability of another big move up or down are small and sideways is most likely. On SPX we have a bull gap down to 5782 (ES is 40 points higher, so it would be around 5826) and it would be strong by the bears to finally close it after 2 months. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6030 bull case: Only thing bulls have going for them is that we are barely making lower lows and are still above 5800. If bears were strong, we would have tested the big bull trend line from 2023-10 by now, which is still 400 points lower. This market has not had two consecutive bear months since 2023-10 and bulls can be confident it stays that way. Bulls who bought near 5800 made money since 2024-09 and I expect them to come around again next week. They will be scaling scale into longs already or wait until we are closer to 5800 and the probability is on their side. Bulls who bought the previous two lows in December and last week, also made at least 150+ points and until we see more trapped traders (bigger gaps), sideways inside the bigger range is much more likely that a strong move down. Invalidation is below 5780. bear case: Bears changed the character of the market but failed to establish a strong bear trend. Once we see decent buying pressure early next week, they will likely give up and try again near 6000. They simple can not hold short below 5900 when we rallied 150+ the past two times we got below it. The best bears can do is to print lower highs below 6040 and go sideways for longer below 6000. Once we get closer to the bull trend line from 2023-10, it’s likely that we see another strong push up to test 6100+, if we haven’t see a strong break below 5800 by then. It’s typical trading range price action and the range is big enough for both sides to make decent money. You have to play the range because we can go sideways for much longer. Invalidation is above 6040. short term: Neutral between 5840 - 5900. If bears continue to make lower highs below 5900, they have a chance of testing 5800. Once we break above 5900, we will test the bear trend line around 5930ish next and above 5960 bears have to give up and wait for 6000 or 6030 before shorting again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None chart update: Marked current bear channel on the 1h tf and removed the bull trend line from the 2024-11 low that got broken.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: I want to be bearish with a stop 2761 but so far bears have not done enough. Market is still above the 1h 20ema and until we have consecutive closes below, I won’t take shorts. My bear trend line is good and market showed the expected reaction there but the risk of another test of 2735 is too high to take early shorts. Bulls also closed above 2710, which is pretty bullish but I would never buy so close to a big bear trend line. Downside potential is about 100 points while upside is most likely limited to 2761, so r:r is clearly on the bear side. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2620 - 2761 bull case: Strongly bullish week and despite having many tails above the bull bars, we are only going up. Bulls want to break above the bear trend line and test 2761 again. Gold has been in a trading range 2560 - 2761 for more than 2 months and betting on a breakout is low probability. Bulls are buying this on momentum but once that is gone, they likely have to cover and try lower again. If bulls want 2800 bad, we would stay above 2700 and continue upwards. I currently see this 50/50 for both sides. Invalidation is below 2670. bear case: Bears tried on Friday but bulls got a big bullish reversal bar and closed above 2700. Best bears could do right now is to turn the market neutral around 2700 before they can try to sell this down again. Bulls are in full control and bears have not done much since beginning of 2025. First target for the bears is to stop the market from making new highs and staying below the 2024-12 high at 2761. Next target down would be 2680 and a 4h close below the 20ema, which has not happened since last Monday. Invalidation is above 2761. short term: Neutral around 2700. Bullish above 2740 for 2761 or higher and bearish only below 2650. Market most likely needs more sideways movement before we can go down. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Another huge bull surprise last week and we made a higher high above the 2024-10 high 77.38. A measured move target is 78.04 and the high was 77.86. Close is always close enough. I would like to see another try at 78 and another huge rejection for me to short. I do think shorting right now is too early but buying after a 244 point rejection is not good either, since the upside is likely limited. Bulls are still in full control here but the last time we traded above 78 was July, so I have zero interest in buying. Still. Did I miss most of the up move? Yes. Do I care? No. I try to never buy high in trading ranges and every time I can refrain from doing it I practice following my rules and that is much more valuable than catching some of the breakouts. current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend key levels: 73 - 80 bull case: Bulls have made a higher high above 77, which is obviously bullish. We have a clear bull channel on the daily chart, which is where the problem for the bulls is. They are at so many prior highs and the top of the channel, that buying above 76 is a tough spot and hard to structure a good long trade around it. If you buy 76, your stop has to be 72.6 and that’s 340 ticks. For this to be a 1:1 trade we would have to hit 79.4 and the last time we did was July. It could work but the probability is likely not on your side here. Any long below 75 or closer to 73 would be a very different story and a reasonable trade. 80 is the obvious next target above. Invalidation is below 72.6. bear case: Bears still have not much. We are trading at many prior resistances but until they can generate more selling pressure than one 1h bar, they don’t have anything going for them. I do think the sell spike down to 75.42 was already enough to fulfill the breakout-retest and we could continue up from here. Bears would need a 1h close below 75 to get some arguments on their side but given the current strength of the move, it will probably be another bull flag to break out above again. Invalidation is above 80. outlook last week: short term: Bullish until bears come around. Longing pullbacks is decent until we make lower lows again. Every touch of the 2h 20ema was bought, so keep looking for longs close to it. → Last Sunday we traded 73.96 and now we are at 76.57. Bulls kept at it, decent outlook. short term: Bullish again but buying above 76 is probably not a good idea. I want to get long closer to 73/74 once momentum upwards gets going again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bear trend line and added bull channel.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 91000 - 100000 is still the range and the low held. Bears need a daily close below 91000 for more downside but until then, we are range-bound. Upside max should be 100k. We have been in this range for two months now, I won’t over analyze it. I have given my longer-term opinion in my year-end special and I stick to that until clearly invalid. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 90k - 110k bull case: Bulls have going for them that they kept it above 90k again. Until we have a daily close below it, they are inside the range and at the lows the r:r favors them to trade back up again. 96k is the next target for them if they want more upside to 100k. Invalidation is below 90k. bear case: Bears failing at 90k again. Sad stuff but that’s the reality for now. Above 96k they will likely step aside until 100k, where I expect market to make another lower high and we continue in this descending triangle until we get a bigger impulse again. Invalidation is above 103k. short term: Neutral. Bearish below 90k and only slightly bullish above 96k for 100k. Will scale into swing shorts near 100k again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-29: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good. current swing trade: Took most off my swing short around 92000 and will add higher again. chart update: Added bear trend line and head & shoulders pattern.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
STORJ Breakout Loading Is a Bullish Surge on the Horizon?Pattern and Setup Symmetrical Triangle Formation. A bullish pattern indicating potential upward momentum. The price is currently consolidating within the triangle, nearing a potential breakout point. Key Levels and Targets Trendline Resistance at $0.70 this is a critical breakout level to watch. Breakout Confirmation above $0.70 could lead to a significant upward move. Strategy Wait for a clear breakout with strong volume above $0.70 for a bullish entry. Upside potential will depend on market conditions and momentum after the breakout. Risk Management Consider placing stop-loss levels below the lower trendline or recent support to manage downside risk. Target prices can be adjusted as the breakout unfolds, monitoring resistance zones. Insights Symmetrical triangles often indicatecontinuation, and this setup leans bullish. However, always confirm with volume for stronger conviction. Stay alert for false breakouts or a downside breach if momentum fades.
Long
by wsaetos
GBP/CAD ANALYSISWe're currently analyzing the 30M timeframe of GBPCAD, where the market price is forming a range. The key question is: which direction will the price break? 1: If the price breaks upwards, we'll enter a buy trade, targeting 1.77880. 2:If it breaks downwards, we’ll look to execute a sell trade, with targets at 1.76510 and 1.76260. Candle confirmation is essential, and we'll only execute the trade once we have that confirmation in hand. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper R:R ratio. #GBPCAD 30M Technical Analyze Expected Move.
by TradeTacticsreal