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Gold: Will 3,260 Flip From Supply to Springboard?Micro Gold Futures — 30 min chart BULLISH ABOVE 3,260 | BEARISH BELOW 🗺️  Structure in Focus Macro bias (4 h/1 D): remains bearish — lower highs & lows since late‑April. Intraday context: price climbing in a rising channel; buyers defend each channel low since 1 May. Grey zone 3 255‑3 260: • 61 %‑78 % Fib retrace of the last leg down • Breakdown base now acting as supply • Mid‑channel + intraday VWAP overhead A decisive H1 close above 3 260 plus a bullish retest flips the bias long toward ≈ 3 280. 🧭  Trade Map 🔴 Base‑case short • Trigger – bearish reaction inside / below 3 255‑60 • Targets – 3 230, then 3 210 (-27 % Fib extension) • Invalidation – H1/H4 close > 3 260 🟢 Flip‑bull plan • Trigger – H1 close above 3 260 and zone holds as support • Target – 3 280 supply (channel top + prior S/R) • Invalidation – H1 close back under 3 250 (Risk ≤ 1 % per idea; scale out at interim levels.) 📊 Narrative to Watch Fed speakers & US data could jolt real yields and gold flow. Asia session often sets the tone—watch Shanghai physical premium chatter. Softening DXY gives the upside‑break thesis a tail‑wind. What’s your play—fade the zone or ride the breakout? Smash the boost 🔥 and follow for live updates! Not financial advice; just sharing my plan. Tags: #Gold #XAUUSD #Futures #PriceAction #Fib #TechnicalAnalysis
COMEX_MINI:MGCM2025Short
by natron
1
#202518 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Only Thursday was bullish and right now market is trying to decide if this breakout was legit or not. If bulls can stay above 95000, the breakout above has a higher chance of being succesful. Below 94000 it has likely failed and I favor the bears for more downside. current market cycle: weekly chart says continuation of the bull trend but i highly doubt it. much more likely we are in a big trading range 73000 - 110000 key levels: 85k - 100k (if bears somehow manage to get below 85k again, we test 80k next) bull case: Bulls want this breakout to be the start of the third leg up for 100000. That’s all there really is to it. Bull trends need higher lows and higher highs and if bulls fail to prevent the market from falling below the breakout bar under 94000, this was likely a bull trap. Invalidation is below 94000. bear case: Bears want a trading range 70000 - 98000 and not let market hit 100000 again because that would for sure attract more degenerates again. Bears really don’t have much here until they print a decent bear bar that gets below 94000. This looks as bullish as can be and above 98000 I expect 100k to be hit. Invalidation is above 101k. short term: Neutral. Below 94000 it’s likely a failed breakout and above 97000 we can expect 100000 or more. Above 100000 there would not be a reason not to go for a new ath, same as for other markets like dax. medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-13: Bear targets for this year are met. Now we likely range before we get new impulse to either side. I wait for market reaction around 100000 before I write more here. For now my assumption is still that this will be a trading range 73000 - 100000 for longer than a retest or even new highs.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
1
#202518 - priceactiontds - weekly update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears defended the breakout area and kept the market in a bear trend. Bulls tried to print a higher low with a decent bull reversal bar on Thursday. Now what? No idea. Oil below 60 is a big thing and staying below is somewhat low probability, given the past 6 years. The chart is still pretty bearish and if you want to be a bull and look at this, would you be thrilled to buy it at 58? I’m not sure. If you could hold below 53 and add lower as well, sure but as of now, bulls have not done enough to convice me this is a credible bottom. current market cycle: trading range on monthly tf and bear trend on the daily key levels: 54 - 65 bull case: Bulls want to keep Thursday the higher low and go up from here. Above 60 they are slightly favored to test 62/64 again but one could also draw another bear trend line from 71.66 to 63.9 from last Monday. So buying here is not favorable, no matter how you look at this chart. Only above 65 do bulls take control again and can test the next bigger bear trend line around 67. Invalidation is below 54. bear case: Bears kept the bounce around the breakout area from the W1 low. Now they need to make lower lows to confirm the acceleration of this bear trend. If they fail, this will become fuel for the bulls to test back up to either 67 or even the W2 high at 71.66. My line in the sand for the bears is a daily bull bar close above the daily 20ema. If bulls can get that, I think more bears will give up. Until then, bears are slightly favored, especially below 56.29 to test 54.48 again. Invalidation is a daily close above 62 and for sure anything above 65. short term: Neutral around 58. Below 56.29 I think we can do 54.48 or lower and above 62 I expect more upside for 64 or higher. medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-27: This does look like another bear trap below 60, which was to be expected.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202518 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls want at least 20536 now and run all the stops from before the big sell-off. Bears are not doing anything at all, so bulls will likely get it. This could be a breakout-retest and I marked the area for that with the red rectangle. Small chance bears come around next week but for now it’s too early to short and buying into 9 consecutive bull days is statistically beyond moronic. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 15500 - 23000 (upper range is a guess, could also become 21000 but for now we don’t know so I assume the higher price) bull case: 20536 and then 21000. Those are the next targets and bulls are in full control of the market. The measured move from the buy spike at the lows is around 22350 and it’s possible that we get there. I think we need to see a pullback and how deep that will be. If we get only another sell spike and immediate buying for higher highs, we can also assume much higher prices. Above 21100 there is no reason not to go for 23000. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: Bears have nothing. Below 19100 market is neutral but until then, selling this is dumb. Wait for more bears to appear or at least seeing something that resembles a topping pattern. Like a lower high on the 1h chart. Don’t try to be the lucky bear who shorted the exact high. Invalidation is above 21100. short term: Neutral. No interest in buying such a buy climax but it’s way too early for shorts. Patience is key. medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-26: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish. Now I assume we will be in a trading range 16000 - 23000 for much longer.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
#202518 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: No one knows if this will be a lower high or a new ath. It does not matter. Buying up here is bad no matter how you look at it. Sure it can be good for a scalp but any bull stop is far away. Until bears start closing gaps, bulls remain in full control. Make no mistake, this is one of those instances where economic reality and market is so far apart that you will look back in hindsight for not going bigger on the shorts once it turns. Can become easily the trade of the year. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19000 - 24000 bull case: Another strong breakout by the bulls on Friday. We are in a clear third leg which could get us to 24000 or become a lower high, you never know in advance. Move is on low volume and climactic that once this turns, it will most likely be violent. There are no reasons for bulls to be up here except a short squeeze. So naturally I doubt we could go much above 24000 if we get there at all. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears still have nothing. No selling pressure what so ever, so path of least resistance is up. The first pullback will likely be bought but that depends on how deep it is and if we get one at all. Bears know this is as very tight and unsustainable bull channel up but that does not matter because market already made 22% from the lows. Which by itself is beyond insane. I do think bears need bad news to ignite the selling. We could easily stay another couple of weeks up here before it turns again. Invalidation is above 24100. short term: Neutral. Getting bullish after this parabolic buy climax is moronic but we are not seeing any selling pressure, so I will just sit on hands. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is over. My rough guess for now is that we will stay inside this trading range 19000 - 24000 for much longer or until economic data becomes the excrementshow I expect it to become over the next months
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
BTC: Balancing on the EdgeBitcoin held the $90.5K level and managed to flip prior resistance into support—an encouraging development, especially given how close price was hovering to the so-called danger zone. That flip marked a technical win for bulls, signaling potential strength in the short-term structure. However, we’re not entirely out of the woods just yet. While price is holding above support and showing some resilience, we’re still trading uncomfortably close to the edge of the recent consolidation zone. For now, $91.5K stands as the ideal level to hold. The concern? If price starts slipping back below this newly established support, especially with conviction, that could be a signal of deeper retracement on the table. The bullish narrative would weaken significantly if we revisit and fail to defend those levels, potentially opening the door for a more sustained correction. So, while the short-term structure remains cautiously optimistic, this isn’t the time for complacency. The market’s still in a precarious spot, and clarity will only come with either continued strength—or a confirmed break below support. Eyes on $91.5K for now. Hold that, and the momentum favors the bulls. Lose it, and the deeper pullback scenario comes back into play. Trade Safe, Trade Clarity.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoKnee
2
Did They Buy the Bottom? EUR/USD Set for Another Reversal!After an explosive bounce from the 1.0800–1.0850 demand zone, EUR/USD is now in a key structural retest around 1.1300. The COT data shows a net increase in long positions by Non-Commercials, but with the Dollar still holding structural strength in its own COT report and an RSI showing bearish divergence, this area may act as a key zone for price discovery. 📊 WHAT THE DATA SAYS: 📉 Price Action: Clear rejection from the 1.1450–1.1550 supply zone. Retest at key structure near 1.1300. 📑 COT (EURO): Net long positions up by +183 (196,388 long vs 120,591 short) = bullish tone. 📑 COT (USD): Still balanced, but Non-Commercials are reducing net longs → potential weakening. 📊 Retail Sentiment (MyFXBook): 70% retail traders are short = contrarian long bias remains. 🌱 Seasonality (May): Historically negative for EUR/USD (–0.0088) = potential downside pressure ahead. 📌 Key Levels: Resistance: 1.1450 / 1.1550 (Supply Zone) Support: 1.1300 (Structural retest) — 1.0850 (Strong demand) 📉 BASE SCENARIO: Pullback toward 1.1100–1.1050 before renewed long accumulation. 📈 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: Break above 1.1450 could target 1.1600–1.1720 zone. 🔍 Watch out for May's seasonal inversion and extreme speculative positioning — fakeouts may precede real directional moves.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
"Bitcoin traders... The real money is made BEFORE the breakout"🚨 Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Showing Smart Money Blueprint in Action! Let's break it down clearly: 📈 Context: After a period of compression, we got a strong liquidity sweep at the highs. Price quickly rejected, causing a sharp market structure break. 📉 Downward Trendline + Liquidity Build-Up: Notice how price has been hugging a descending line while leaving clear liquidity pockets ($$$) above. This means Smart Money is trapping buyers into bad longs before the expansion. 📍 Critical Level: CRT Low (Current Range Low) Price has aggressively returned to mitigate near the CRT Low area (marked red). Perfect zone for Smart Money to reload before the next expansion. 📍 Entry Confirmation: Watch for bullish reaction signs off the CRT Low. If price holds above, we are likely to witness an explosive upside move targeting the previous liquidity pools. 🎯 Target Zones: Immediate liquidity above (around $94,700 - $95,000). Secondary target at CRT High area ($95,400+). 🧠 Market Psychology at Play: CRT Low is a beautiful example of engineered liquidity, where emotional sellers are stopped out and Smart Money absorbs entries. The goal is to trap the impatient and reward the patient. ⚡ Game Plan: Be reactive, not predictive: Wait for bullish price action confirmation. Partial profits at first liquidity zone, trail stop for extended targets. R:R ratio on this setup is beautifully in our favor. 🚀 Risk Management Tip: Risk only what you're willing to lose. Even the best setups can fail — it’s part of the game. Good trading is consistent execution, not perfection. ✍️ To sum up: This BTCUSD chart is textbook Smart Money play: Liquidity sweep ➡️ Break of structure ➡️ Mitigation ➡️ Expansion If you time your entry well, this could be one of the cleanest setups into the weekly close! 🔥 ➡️ Comment "BTC READY" if you're eyeing this move with me! ➡️ Save this post for future Smart Money analysis references!
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by ChartNinjas88
"BTC Just Slammed Into a Major OB! Will Bears Strike Back Hard?"⚡ BTCUSD Analysis - 4H Timeframe | April 28, 2025 📈 What's Happening: BTC has pushed deep into the Premium Area and wicked into a key Order Block (OB). Strong bearish reactions are starting to show = potential trap for late buyers! 🚨 🚨 Critical Levels Highlighted: Strong High = Main invalidation level (~99,999). Order Block (OB) = Primary supply zone where Smart Money could step in. Weak Low = Major liquidity target (~74,458). 🧠 Key Observations: Smart Money hunted liquidity by forcing price into Premium. OB Reaction shows potential rejection = perfect sniper hunting zone! If bears step in, that Weak Low will be the magnet 🧲. 🎯 2-SCENARIO PLAN: Plan A — Short Setup (Main Bias): ✅ Watch for strong bearish reaction inside the OB. ✅ Confirm short entries with bearish structure shift on M15/M5. ✅ TP1 = Minor lows around 88,000–90,000. TP2 = Full Weak Low sweep (~74,458). ✅ SL = Above Strong High (~99,999). Plan B — Breaker Play (Alternative): ✅ If BTC breaks Strong High cleanly, flip bias to bullish. ✅ Look for Breaker retest setups targeting new highs. 📊 Risk Management Tip: "Patience at Premium Zones = Maximum Risk-to-Reward setups. No chasing allowed." 🧘‍♂️ Summary: ✅ Liquidity Swept ✅ OB Reaction Starting ✅ Premium Area Reached ✅ Weak Low Target In Sight 🔥 Smart Money has a saying: "Trap first, profit second." ➡️ Save this setup to your playbook! ➡️ Comment "TRAP THEN ATTACK" if you're locking in for that premium sniper shot! 🧨
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
"EURJPY Rejecting Premium FVG | Smart Money Trap in Play!"EURJPY Analysis 🧠 | 15M Timeframe Price has tapped into the Premium Area, reacting off a high-probability Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Order Block confluence. Signs of rejection are starting to show, but momentum wasn't strong enough to push lower before hitting breakeven. Key Observations: Price aggressively tapped the Premium zone (around 79% retracement). Reaction from the embedded Fair Value Gap inside the premium zone. Possible minor liquidity sweep above recent highs (Strong High marked). Discounted zone below remains wide open as a potential future target. 🧠 Smart Money Concept Insight: Big players often drive price into a Premium Area, triggering breakout trades and trapping liquidity. After the liquidity is harvested, price tends to rebalance into the Discount Area. Today, price showed initial bearish reaction but lacked immediate continuation strength — resulting in breakeven protection hit. Current Trading Plan: Continue monitoring EURJPY for renewed bearish order flow signs. TP1 (if re-entry occurs): Mid Discount Area TP2: Weak Low liquidity sweep below SL (for any re-entries): Above Strong High Remember: 📚 Premium = Look for Sell Opportunities 📚 Discount = Look for Buy Opportunities Stay patient, protect your capital, and wait for price to confirm the next move. 📉 Focus on Smart Money footprints, not emotions.
Short
by ChartNinjas88
"USDJPY Crashing from Premium FVG | Liquidity Grab Confirmed!"USDJPY Analysis 🧠 | 15M Timeframe Price tapped deep into the Premium Area, perfectly aligning with a high-probability Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Order Block confluence. We witnessed a strong bearish reaction — classic Smart Money move in action. Key Observations: Price surged aggressively into the Premium Zone (~79% retracement area). Immediate bearish reaction from the red Fair Value Gap zone. Liquidity sweep confirmed above the previous Strong High. Discount Area below remains unfilled, offering juicy targets. 🧠 Smart Money Concept Insight: Institutions love to bait breakout traders by pumping into Premium Zones. After collecting stop orders and liquidity above highs, they aggressively reverse, aiming to rebalance into the Discount Area. USDJPY delivered a textbook liquidity grab before the sharp drop! Current Trading Plan: Bearish bias remains intact after the strong reaction. TP1: Mid Discount Area TP2: Weak Low liquidity sweep zone SL (for any new shorts): Above the Strong High Remember: 📚 Premium = Look for Sell Opportunities 📚 Discount = Look for Buy Opportunities Stay laser-focused on Smart Money footprints, not noise. 📉 Emotions out, execution sharp!
Short
by ChartNinjas88
"USDJPY | Smart Money Premium Trap | Mitigation Block Rejection"⚡ USDJPY Analysis – 30M Timeframe | April 30, 2025 📊 Price Action Summary: USDJPY has aggressively tapped into the Premium Zone, aligning perfectly with a Mitigation Block and Fibonacci 61.8% golden pocket. We’re seeing early signs of Smart Money rejection — time to stay sharp! 🧐 🔥 Key Moves: Premium Zone Entry: Price retraced right into the 61.8–70.5% fib region. Mitigation Block respected: A known Smart Money zone where trapped sellers from previous moves get wrecked. Liquidity Build-Up Below: Eyes on the unprotected lows — Smart Money LOVES to grab those. 🧠 What’s Really Going On Behind the Scenes: Retail traders: "It’s bouncing! Let’s go long!" 🟢💸 Smart Money: "Perfect… let’s trap them for liquidity." 🧊📉 This move screams classic Premium Trap — draw them in, then nuke it. ☠️ 🧩 Why This Setup Matters: Mitigation Block + FVG combo = High-probability rejection zone Sellers are likely reloading positions here The Strong High has been established — room to target Weak Lows below 🎯 Trade Setup Idea: Entry: Inside or just below the Mitigation Block (confirmation from bearish rejection) Stop Loss: Just above the Strong High (~142.813) Take Profit Zones: TP1: Mid-discount (~141.400) TP2: Weak Low (~139.899) — the real liquidity target 🎯 💬 Pro Tip: "Mitigation blocks are the sniper’s nest for Smart Money. Get in, get out, get paid." 🎯 Watch the reaction closely inside the purple zone. It’s not just a block — it’s a liquidity recycling station. 🚀 Summary: ✅ Price entered Premium ✅ Mitigation Block tested ✅ Liquidity below waiting ✅ High RRR bearish setup aligning 🧘‍♂️ Be patient. Wait for confirmation. Let Smart Money leave the trail — then follow. ✍️ Save this chart and study how Mitigation Blocks get respected over and over. It’s not magic — it’s mechanics. ➡️ Comment "SNEAKY SHORT" if you're watching the block trap unfold! ➡️ Tag a trader who still doesn’t believe in Premium/Discount theory. 😂📉📈
Short
by ChartNinjas88
Bitcoin - All time highs will come next!Bitcoin - CRYPTO:BTCUSD - prepares a significant move: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) Over the past couple of months, we basically only saw sideways price action on Bitcoin. However, this does not mean, that Bitcoin is now slowing down; actually the opposite is true and Bitcoin is setting up for a major move higher. New all time highs will come very soon. Levels to watch: $100.000 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by basictradingtv
40
Micron Technology - The Chart Is Still Perfect!Micron Technology ( NASDAQ:MU ) will reverse right here: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 If you actually want to explain technical analysis to somebody, just show them the chart of Micron Technology. Almost every structure makes perfect sense, with this stock respecting all major trendlines and horizontal levels and with the current support area, the bottom is now in. Levels to watch: $70, $210 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:MULong
by basictradingtv
14
Equity Research Report – NEWGEN SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES Short-Term View: A strong breakout above key resistance at ₹1,100 with volume surge indicates bullish momentum. Price reclaimed the 50 EMA after consolidation. RSI at 60.87 supports strength; next resistance lies near ₹1,193.90. Long-Term View: Structurally strong after correction. Sustaining above ₹1,020 (50 EMA) may attract fresh buying. Long-term targets can stretch to ₹1,300+ if earnings and demand trends remain favorable. Conclusion: Bullish momentum likely to continue both short and long term. Watch for volume confirmation and hold above ₹1,100. For Education Purpose only
NSE:GODREJPROPLong
by rmhetre15
Is Platinum About to Explode? Imminent Rally!Platinum (PL1!) is currently in a technically and macroeconomically compelling setup. After a prolonged consolidation between 872–921, price has reacted strongly, forming a clear accumulation pattern supported by institutional positioning and favorable seasonality. 📈 1. Technical Analysis: Accumulation and Potential Breakout The weekly chart shows a strong demand zone that has been defended multiple times over the past year. Following a deep pullback in April, price has formed a harmonic compression structure and broke to the upside with conviction. The area between 1010 and 1040 stands out as the first major historical supply zone — previously rejected but now looking increasingly vulnerable. 📉 2. COT Report: Institutions Repositioning Long The COT data as of April 22 shows a clear increase in long positions from commercial traders (+1,177 contracts), while non-commercials maintain a net long bias. Total open interest rose by over 1,500 contracts — a strong sign of renewed speculative interest in Platinum. ✅ Conclusion Platinum is showing strong confluence across technicals, institutional positioning, and historical seasonal behavior. The probability of a bullish extension in Q2 2025 is high. This is a setup worth watching closely in the coming days.
NYMEX:PL1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
Equity Research Report – NEWGEN SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIESShort-Term View: A strong breakout above key resistance at ₹1,100 with volume surge indicates bullish momentum. Price reclaimed the 50 EMA after consolidation. RSI at 60.87 supports strength; next resistance lies near ₹1,193.90. Long-Term View: Structurally strong after correction. Sustaining above ₹1,020 (50 EMA) may attract fresh buying. Long-term targets can stretch to ₹1,300+ if earnings and demand trends remain favorable. Conclusion: Bullish momentum likely to continue both short and long term. Watch for volume confirmation and hold above ₹1,100. For Education Purpose only
NSE:NEWGENLong
by rmhetre15
KRYSTAL Integrated Services LtdTechnical View: KRYSTAL is consolidating between ₹520–₹550 after a rally from March lows. A breakout above ₹560 could target ₹600+, while a dip below ₹500 may weaken momentum. RSI shows moderate bullishness. Fundamental View: FY24 revenue grew ~44% YoY to ₹981 Cr; net profit rose ~26% to ₹48 Cr. ROE ~18%, ROCE ~20%. Recently secured a ₹349 Cr 3-year contract from Tamil Nadu Medical Services. Action Plan: Short-term: Buy above ₹560, target ₹600. Long-term: Attractive valuation; accumulate on dips ₹450–₹500 zone.
NSE:KRYSTALLong
by rmhetre15
XAUUSD Technical Analysis: Bullish and Bearish ScenariosGold (XAUUSD) has exhibited a strong bullish impulse, breaking out of established channel structures. Following a sharp ascent, the price action has entered a consolidation phase near recent highs. This analysis explores potential scenarios based on technical patterns, key levels, and underlying market psychology. Chart Analysis and Market Psychology The chart displays a distinct uptrend characterized by ascending channels. Recently, XAUUSD experienced a significant upward thrust, breaking decisively above the shorter-term orange channel. This move reached the projected target derived from this channel's height, near the 3405 level. Following this peak, price action has formed a tighter consolidation range. This pattern, occurring after a sharp rally and on potentially decreasing volume (as is common in such formations), resembles a bullish continuation pattern, such as a pennant or flag. From a market psychology perspective, this suggests a temporary equilibrium: Buying Pressure: Bulls who drove the initial breakout may be pausing, absorbing profits taken by earlier entrants, or accumulating new positions in anticipation of further upside. The sharp nature of the preceding rally indicates strong underlying demand and potentially FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) among participants. Selling Pressure: Sellers are attempting to cap the rally, potentially taking profits or initiating short positions. However, the observation that dips below 3259 were quickly bought suggests that selling pressure has been relatively weak compared to the buying interest defending this level. This rejection indicates that market participants still perceive value at or above this zone, viewing it as a potential support level following the breakout. The key level currently in focus appears to be around 3259. The price interaction with this level could be crucial in determining the next directional move. Bullish Scenario Conditions: For a bullish continuation, the price would ideally need to hold above the 3259 support level. A decisive breakout above the upper boundary of the current consolidation pattern would serve as confirmation. Psychology: This outcome would suggest that the consolidation phase was indeed accumulative, with buyers absorbing selling pressure and preparing for the next leg higher. It would reinforce the "impatient bulls" and "weak bears" narrative. Potential Targets: A retest of the recent highs near 3405. The target derived from the breakout of the medium-term turquoise channel, located near 3640. Given the aggressive nature of the preceding rally, an overshoot towards the higher projection at 3839 might become a possibility if bullish momentum remains exceptionally strong after breaking 3640. Bearish Scenario Conditions: A failure to hold the 3259 level, coupled with a break below the lower boundary of the consolidation pattern, could signal a potential reversal or a deeper pullback. This might involve price re-entering the previously broken orange channel. Psychology: This scenario would suggest that the buying pressure was insufficient to sustain the breakout, potentially indicating a "bull trap" or simply a more significant profit-taking wave overwhelming demand at current levels. Potential Support Zones: The upper trendline of the orange channel (acting as support after being resistance). The primary uptrend line (lower boundary) of the orange channel. The channel line (upper boundary) of the broader turquoise channel, which could coincide with the orange channel's lower boundary, potentially forming a confluence of support. Concluding Remarks XAUUSD is at a potential juncture following a strong bullish breakout. The current consolidation pattern holds the key to the next immediate move. Holding above 3259 and breaking the consolidation high could pave the way for further upside towards targets at 3640 and potentially 3839. Conversely, a failure to maintain support at 3259 might trigger a pullback towards the support levels defined by the underlying channel structures. Traders often watch volume closely during the resolution of such patterns for confirmation. Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Trading involves risk, and decisions should be based on your own research and risk tolerance.  
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AccumulationPro
2025-05-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Way tougher than it looks. Both sides have good arguments why this continues higher or why today marked the top. I have a heavy bearish bias but I confirmation would only be below 19090 and that’s 700 points down. I do think if bears can close the gap down to 19640, we retest 19300 and there we have the first bull trend line. Below we go for 19100, which was the us gdp spike low and below that is armageddon. Bulls have nothing but continuation of this short squeeze. When Apple earnings disappoint, you know things are about to get real ducking bad next. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls got 20000 and even went above the April high, now what? Technically still a lower high until they hit 20537. They have going for them that today was the first bear bar after 7 consecutive bull days. They now want to defend the open gaps to keep the momentum going. A pullback can go way deeper than most bulls will be comfortable with, given the current environment. I do think best bulls can hope for tomorrow, is to go sideways and close the week above 20000. Invalidation is below 19640. bear case: Bears have all the macro schmackro arguments on their side that you can try to come up with. Structure says bullish until bull trend lines are broken. First is around 19500 and second is the bigger one around 19000. Can bears get to either tomorrow? I do think so yes. This was a nasty short squeeze but we are right under the weekly 20ema, technically still a lower high because the last major lower high was 20536. On the weekly chart this is a textbook two-legged pullback to the moving average and I pray daily that we will get another huge leg down to 15000. How likely is that? For now, very unlikely. Still it would be more fun if the bull trend line from the covid lows would break and we transition into a trading range 15000 - 22000. Invalidation is above 20140. short term: Neutral. For tomorrow I can see 20100 not getting hit again and we sell-off. If markets stays above 19700, bulls remain in full control. full bear mode below 19640. Above 20140 we likely go for 20500+. medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year. trade of the day: Longs near 1h 20ema. Was profitable couple of times. Sell-off into close was insider-trading. Absolutely certain that the earnings were leaked.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds