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#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears made another amazing trade selling above 2440 and since this was the third time, they are confident they can push the market lower to at least 2300 again. The selling was strong enough for a second leg and right now a measured move would bring us exactly to 2300. Coincidences huh. Every time someone tells you technical analysis does not work, just nod and make money. It’s not worth the discussion. comment: Clear rejection above 2500 again but the bear bar from Friday has a big tail below, because bulls bought the daily 20ema. It’s mid’ish of the triangle so the worst place to trade. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect more downside than a break above the ath but I won’t take my chances. I wait for market to show me. Both sides have reasonable arguments to retest the highs again or finally giving up on 2500. Volume saw a huge increase again, which could mean that we are coming to an end of this range between 2300 and 2500, over the next weeks to months. current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months key levels: 2300 - 2536 bull case: Bulls showed weakness during the week before but somehow managed to turn the market around this week on bad looking daily bars. Unusual to say the least. I do think every time the patterns looks bad, it’s more due to the other side stepping aside than one being particularly strong. Anyhow, Market retested the ath again and printed a lower high 14 points lower. It’s the 5th time the bulls tried and failed. Do they get more or will they give up now? I don’t know. I thought the drop that started 2 weeks ago from the ath was decent enough to bring us to 2300 again but they failed at a higher low. So we are in a triangle and in the middle of it. Market is neutral between 2450 - 2490. Invalidation is below 2290. bear case: Not much to add because market is neutral. Bears need follow through on Monday to test the bull trend line below at around 2425. There is not much more to read out of this at the moment. Things change when bulls get a strong close above 2536 or bears print lower lows below 2390 again. Invalidation is above 2536. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode continues as long as the bear channel holds. Look for shorts near the top and take profits at new lows. → Last Sunday we traded 2381 and now we are at 2469. The bear channel broke on Tuesday and my invalidation was on point but my outlook was not. Always know your risk and start every trade from a risk point of view and now from a profit point of view. You will most likely never hit 90% winners consistently so get used to losers and don’t let them influence you in a bad way. short term: Neutral 2450 - 2490. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed bearish pattern and added the triangle we are in
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Climactic selling below the possible bear channel. I do think a bounce is more likely than another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday. Can go a bit lower to 5270 but we will touch that upper bear channel again or at least the daily 20ema. Bounce could go as high as 5500 again. Best case for bears would be to stay below 5450. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below. comment: Everything about this possible new bear trend I already wrote above, no new stuff to add here. current market cycle: Bull trap triggered on 2024-07-17. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600. On the weekly or monthly chart, the selloff during July/August will be the first leg of this bear trend. key levels: 5400-5600 bull case: Bulls got a huge bounce last week for 169 points but the bears sold it violently again for a 269 point drop. Not stuff that happens during bull trends. Bulls are running for the exits and I do think market won’t get above 5600 anytime soon again. Bulls best hope now is to go sideways and turn the market neutral again. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months. Invalidation is above 5600. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move. → Last Sunday we traded 5499 and now we are at 5376. Market started neutral and had big two sided trading, so outlook was good. short term: Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024. medium-long term: 5300 over the next weeks (will likely happen in August). Afterwards another pullback before we go down to 5000/5100 in 2024. current swing trade: Out of all shorts which I had since 5700. Will load again on anything above 5500. chart update: Bull trend line now clearly broken but bear channel stays for now. Removed bear gap #2. Whenever you see many lines in an area on my charts, it means that much happened there and it’s an area of importance. Expect pullbacks/bounces in those areas. Adjusted the 50% pb from 5601 to the recent low 5331.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
7
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr I said that below 62300, it’s over for the bulls and also that the down move will probably be faster than the up move. Both happened this week and we will make new lows over the next weeks. As I’m writing this we are at 57817 and falling like a rock. Will look for shorts only from here on and any pullback will probably do. Will see 50000 very soon. Quote from last week: comment: Bull trend stalling and market went sideways for a week. Bulls want to touch the bear trend line around 71000 again and bears want to break the bull trend line and drop below 63000 again. Simple as that. Will buy on strong momentum up and only consider shorts once the bull trend line is broken. comment: Bull trend is done. I don’t think bitcoin will see 70k for a couple of years and we are heading for 50000 over the next days to weeks and then 40000 probably this year. Bulls have a small chance to find more buyers at the previous bull trend line from 2023-10, when adjusted, could fit with the July lows but it’s not a great probability. For that they would need to stop the selling above 56000 and by this selling speed, we would get there by Tuesday/Wednesday. For now we have a very tight bear channel down, which indeed was stronger than the up move, so far. current market cycle: Trading range or very broad bear channel, since we are making lower highs and lower lows over the last 3 months. key levels: 53000-70000 bull case: Bulls touched 70000 and boi did those disappointed bulls use that price to sell out of their longs. Market never looked back since and we are 10000 points lower again. Only thing bulls can pray for now, is a higher low above 53000, to keep a trading range going but other than that, nothing. Personally I do think that was the dead cat bounce and below 50000 we will see some real pain for Bitcoin. If bulls manage to get above 66000 again, I was wrong and we move more sideways. Invalidation is below 53000. bear case: Market changed directions as quickly as on the way up. Bears are in control again and want to print 50000. If they do, I do believe we won’t get above 63000 on a pullback, due to many bulls having stops there and giving up. If bears fumble it again and let the bull gap down to 52000 stay open, we will continue the trading range inside the given key levels. Invalidation is above 66000. outlook last week: short term: neutral. My best guess is that market is not able to reach 70000 again and reverse over the next days. Obviously too early to talk about shorts but I have no interest in longs above 66000. → Last Sunday we traded around 68000 and now we are at 60350. The high was 70015. I was wrong about market won’t print 70000 but right about the reversal. I consider a 15 point miss in Bitcoin pretty amazing. short term: Market only knows one direction currently. The weekend selling was almost 5000 points so far. Any pullback will be good for me to load on shorts again. medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take. Update: Above was written 3000 points above the recent low of 53500. Since market had it’s dead cat bounce, I consider the last bigger pullback to be done and we will get much lower lows over the next months and more shallow pullbacks. current swing trade: none chart update: Bull trend line is gone, added tight bear channel and adjusted the broken bull trend line from 2023-10 to be a potential support line next week.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by priceactiontds
GAIL: This is why People lose moneyThis is one important case study as to why investors lose money in the stock market. Now if you look at the chart, Here is what you see: 1. 32 Months of pure range-bound consolidation 2. Clearly defined support and resistance zones 3. Five months of consolidation at the resistance zone 4. A beautiful high-volume breakout followed by a retest. 5. This is one textbook setup for a long trade So, We should go long here, right? If I zoom out of the chart, Here is what you will see. - We have a strong resistance zone sitting just above the breakout level. - The price took a strong rejection from the exact resistance zone. Also, Observe the volatile consolidation zone that lasted almost 2 Years. That volatile zone may not be passed through in one instant. What we investors do is draw conclusions based on partial data and predict the price action that is yet to come. What we fail to do is observe the previous price action in its entirety. Does that mean that GAIL will not rise in value, Absolutely not. It just means that the uncertainty it has on the charts for a mere 10% gain ( breakout to ATH Distance) is super high. The market is full of opportunities. Why invest in something that already has a foreseeable red flag? If you liked the read, Would you give us a boost and a follow for our efforts? Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? Let us know in the comments below.👇 ⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
NSE:GAILEducation
by TheChartereds
16
Gold retraces to Fibonacci 0.5Fundamental Analysis Gold (XAU/USD) fell sharply to the $2,371 level as geopolitical risks overshadowed market attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting this Wednesday. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for June, released on Friday, showed inflation remained steady, close to the Fed's 2% target. However, investors still expect the Fed to start its easing cycle in September and could provide a clearer signal after this week's meeting. On Tuesday, the JOLT Jobs Openings and the Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Index for June and July are expected to show moderate declines, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September. Technical Analysis XAU/USD’s recovery from last week’s lows around $2,350 has met stiff resistance at $2,400. This is a key resistance zone as the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart has met resistance from the downtrend since the July 17 high. However, downside efforts have been limited so far. The intraday RSI shows moderate positive momentum, with $2,380 still holding the downtrend. If the price breaks below this level, the next target would be the July 25 low at $2,350. Conversely, if the price breaks above $2,400, the broader bearish structure will be broken and the next target will be $2,430.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
2
Bitcoin Testing and Testing Demand ZoneBitcoin is once again seeking to fall into our equilibrium zone (purple zone). Bitcoin has tested this zone several times, and if we look at the overall structure, Bitcoin continues to bounce within a range. Our plan remains in place. Remember that markets need to make pauses or retests before taking action. Additionally, we must consider that markets, in general, have been bearish—we are in a bear market. However, the points of interest I have marked are based on historical prices and significant liquidity, so we can expect aggressive movements once the price reaches the indicated zones. Thank you for your support, and don't fear these bear markets; on the contrary, we should average in and take advantage of the opportunities they offer us.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by RocketMike111
2
SWING IDEA - JAMNA AUTOJamna Auto Industries Limited , a key player in the automotive sector, is showing promising technical signals for a potential swing trade opportunity. Reasons are listed below : Jamna Auto's chart displays a bullish cup and handle pattern breakout, indicating a reversal in the trend. A bullish engulfing candle on the weekly timeframe signals a potential uptrend reversal. Trading comfortably above the 50 and 200 EMAs on the weekly timeframe suggests strong bullish momentum. Breaking out of a consolidation range spanning over two years indicates a shift to a trending market. Approaching a new all-time high suggests further upward potential. A sudden surge in trading volumes accompanies the recent price movement, indicating growing market interest. Target - 150/160 StopLoss - weekly close below 114 DISCLAIMER - Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services. @visionary.growth.insights
NSE:JAMNAAUTOLong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
5
SWING IDEA - SAPPHIRE FOODS INDIASapphire Foods , a leading player in food and beverage industry, emerges as a potential swing trade candidate. Reasons are listed below : Ascending triangle pattern breakout observed, suggesting potential bullish continuation. Bullish engulfing candle on the weekly timeframe, engulfing the previous 13 weekly candles, indicating a strong bullish reversal. Breakout signals the end of a consolidation phase lasting over 2 years, suggesting a release of pent-up buying pressure. Trading near all-time high, reflecting robust bullish momentum and investor confidence. 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the weekly timeframe providing significant support, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Target - 1780 // 2000 StopLoss - weekly close below 1350 DISCLAIMER - Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services. @visionary.growth.insights
NSE:SAPPHIRELong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
SUPPLY AND DEMAND / LIQUIDITY CONCEPTIn this analysis we are focusing on (4H) Time frame for XAUUSD. Here we have two condition. First we are looking for sell and then we are looking for buy from the demand zone. Now we will wait where price go first, if price go first toward supply zone then we look for sell. But in second condition if price go first toward the demand zone then we look for buy. These are the levels of buying and selling. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. This is just my prediction and analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
2024-08-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Yesterday I was neutral until one side clearly gains control again and boi did the bears deliver today. 600 point drop from Wednesday high and a close below 18200. This is the biggest bear bar for many months and will be part of W1/leg1 of the new bear trend. We will most likely make new lows below 17800 next week. We have a nice looking bear channel that leads to the July low, from where we can expect the W2/two legged correction to form a broader channel which we can grind down to at least 17000 over the next weeks. If bulls somehow manage to break above 18400 again, I am wrong and we continue inside the trading range which we have been in for 5 months now. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) / probably the new bear trend has started today. key levels: 17800 - 18400 bull case: Yesterday I wrote that bulls could not get a single close above 18600 and market can test one direction/price only so much before it tries the opposite. Bulls gave up today and now we test the lows. The best bulls can hope for is to keep it above 17800 and continue inside the trading range. Given that we just had many earnings releases and the negative GDP print, I absolutely favor the bears. Invalidation is below 17800. bear case: Bears closed below the recent 33 bars and demonstrated strength. This selling will most likely get another leg down but now the primary goal for the bears is to keep any pullback shallow and preferably below 18300 to create two big bear gaps. Bear gap #2 will get smaller tomorrow but it should stay open, otherwise bears might fumble it again. Invalidation is above 18300. short term: full bear mode for 17844 or lower. There I expect a pullback to form a broader channel we will grind down over the next months. Buckle up. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Had shorts from 18700 and added 18900. Took most off today and leaving a runner for 17844. trade of the day: Short since bar 7, no ifs or buts. Bar closed below the previous 35 bars and at it’s low. Perfect signal and entry bar.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
2024-08-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls are absolutely fumbling it and their chances of going above 70000 again are below 25% imo. The best they can pray for right now is to stay above 62300 and the 50% pb, so the bull gap stays open and they trade sideways between 62300 - 68000. If market drops below 62300, we are most likely already in the next bear leg down and this one will get below 50000 and afterwards we won’t get above 65000 again. current market cycle: trading range / if 62300 is broken, it’s a new bear trend key levels: 53000 - 72000 bull case: Bulls need to keep it above 62300, that’s it. Their first target is then to break above the bear channel and get consecutive closes above the 2h 20ema. If they manage that, bears might give up and bulls can retest 70000 again. As of now, very low probability that bulls reverse this. Invalidation is below 62300. bear case: Bears making lower lows and lower highs, that’s all there currently is to it. They formed a proper channel down and as long as that holds, they are in control. Below 62000 the selling will accelerate. Invalidation is above 67000. short term: Neutral. Uber bearish below 62300 and bullish above 67000. medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Strong breakout on bar 20, had to get short while it formed because it was so strong and closed below the previous 50 bars. Second best trade was a short against the 1h 20ema bar 15. Entry should have been 1 tick below bar 14.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
MANAUSDT Comprehensive Technical Analysis✨ Welcome to my channel. Here, we analyze a new crypto project or Forex pair every day. 📅 Let's dive into today's analysis, focusing on the MANAUSDT pair in the crypto market. 🗂 About the Project: Decentraland (MANA) is a decentralized virtual reality platform powered by the Ethereum blockchain. Users can create, experience, and monetize content and applications within this virtual world. MANA serves as the cryptocurrency used within the platform for transactions such as purchasing land and goods. 📅 Weekly Timeframe Analysis In this timeframe, MANA has experienced significant movements. Recently, it saw a downward trend, reflecting a broader market decline. MANA is currently testing a crucial support level around $0.1716 after a prolonged correction phase. 📈 If MANA stabilizes above $0.4133, we can anticipate bullish momentum potentially pushing the price towards the next resistance at $0.7816. Confirmation of a new upward trend will depend on candle stability above this level. 📉 Conversely, if MANA falls back into the range between $0.1716 and $0.4133 and stabilizes below $0.1716, it indicates a bearish trend continuation. The next critical support level would be around $0.1300. In both scenarios, volume analysis is crucial. A healthy trend should be supported by corresponding volume without any divergence. 📅 Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily chart, MANA ranged around the $0.4133 level before initiating another downward wave. Currently, there is noticeable bearish momentum, and the price has found temporary support at $0.2890. 🧲 Given the current setup, stabilization below $0.2890 could signal another bearish wave. On the flip side, if the price moves above $0.3932, it could indicate the start of a bullish trend, targeting higher resistance levels. 📅 4-Hour Timeframe Analysis In the 4-hour timeframe, MANA has pulled back and reached the support at $0.2890. Volume analysis shows a decrease, indicating potential exhaustion of the recent downward movement. 📈 For short positions, the key levels to watch are $0.3158 and $0.3932, where price reactions could provide better entry points. 📉 For long positions, critical levels are $0.2890 and $0.2616. 📊 RSI Oscillator The RSI is currently ranging between 20.73 and 37.93 on different timeframes. Breaking these levels could provide confirmation for opening positions. However, always use these levels in conjunction with candle patterns and volume analysis to find the best entry and exit points. 📉 Given the current bearish signals in the daily and 4-hour timeframes, alongside the potential trend change in the weekly timeframe, I am inclined to open a short position. However, this is based on my trading strategy. Each trader should base their decisions on their strategies and risk management plans. ⚠️ Please note that this is not financial advice. I'm simply introducing this project to you, and remember always to do your own research. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
by itsparham96
1
S&P weekly consolidation ongoing; uptrend still intactLast week began with a bull rally that was very short-lived. Sellers stepped in, driving the price down through the last consolidation (and potential support) zone. By the end of the week, the market experienced a 180-degree shift in sentiment, with Friday closing with a bullish inside candle. Currently, we have the following disposition: 1. The price is in an uptrend on the weekly chart, indicating that long-term buyers still maintain control. 2. The daily chart shows a downtrend, but so far, sellers have only managed to retrace 50% of the previous green wave. 3. There is an unfilled gap from Wednesday, the 24th. If bulls can fill this gap this week, it will demonstrate their strength. From a fundamental perspective, there was no significant negative news. On the contrary, the inflation data was quite positive, and earnings were mostly decent, except for TSLA. This suggests that the current downtrend is just a controlled weekly consolidation. Therefore, we should look for a weekly higher low to enter LONG positions to capitalize on the continuation of the weekly uptrend. A lot will depend on the Big Tech earnings reports coming out this week, but so far, there is no reason to expect negative surprises. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE / PRICE ACTION MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on (1H) timeframe for XAUUSD. In this prediction we are simply use support and resistance and price action with the combination of liquidity grab strategy. Today I'm looking for sell opportunity from resistance area . As we know that bearish momentum is strong, let's see what happens we will execute our trade after confirmation. Always put stoploss for your trade. Always follow the rule of proper money management and risk to reward ratio. Manage your risk before executing your trade. # GOLD 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move..
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
6
Gold forms wave 5 of the Elliot wave☘️Fundamental analysis At the beginning of the Asian trading session on July 25, gold fell deeper than 1%, as of the time this article was completed, gold was trading at 2,372 USD, equivalent to a decrease of 25Dollar during the day. But times have changed and things have changed now so I changed my mind. The Fed should cut interest rates, preferably at its interest rate meeting next week. Gold traders are now awaiting second-quarter US GDP data today (Thursday), as well as the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday, as this is the gauge Fed's preferred inflation. Although gold has been supported by news from India that has reduced import tax on gold and silver from 15% to 6%. But the main reason why gold prices are still being sold off is partly due to profit-taking motivation, and a Partly because Trump's victory will support the Dollar, Trump is known as the President with a harsh tariff stance. The main factor currently supporting gold prices is market expectations that the Federal Reserve may actually decide to cut interest rates before September. ☘️Technical analysis After reaching the 0.5 Fibo retracement zone of the gold downtrend, wave 5 has formed and we are waiting for the end of wave 5 to catch the recovery wave. Note support points to BUY around 2363-2362. If this price range is broken, the next strong support zone is around 2350. Gold has formed a falling price channel with key resistance levels at 2384 and 2400. Today's price range zones are used to trade news and enter orders when the signal touches an important price zone. Trading signals SELL zone 2398 - 2400 Stoploss 2404 SELL zone 2382-2384 stoploss 2387 BUY zone 2364 - 2362 stoploss 2358 BUY zone 2352 - 2350 stoploss 2346 Wishing you a successful trading day
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader