ETH | Alternative Chart Pattern | EducationJust a short update for my latest C&H post
Price is also forming an Ascending Triangle pattern with a liquidity zone of $2,800 - $3,000 for an average spot for buyer to step in
When trading chart patterns it's best to figure out how to jump in before the breakout similarly to the last touches highlighted in blue on the bottom trendline
You can see that price was forming a bottom-like pattern or what I also like to call price accumulation and then vice versa for the tops.
Priceaction
#202505 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bear mode was good last Monday but that was about it for the bears. Every day market left behind a bullish gap, mostly without closing it. This is overdone, overbought, climactic and a parabolic rally which is always unsustainable. Still those facts do not help anyone shorting this. I am continuing with my plan to scale shorts with stop 22300.
current market cycle: Bull trend (very climactic move last week, market needs to take a breather or will outright crumble again)
key levels: 20500 - 21800
bull case: Bulls are still in full control. The bull channel continues until clearly broken. Bulls now only have the most obvious target left with 22000. There is no reason for bulls to not expect this to go to at least 22000 now. Bears are absolutely doing nothing and we have only 1 bar going the low of the previous day. This is as climactic as it gets but it can go further.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears got a big gap down on Monday and bulls just bought it relentlessly again. Tough times to be a bear. New US - EU tariffs are around the corner and this could be the trigger to finally see some bigger profit taking and the bear awakening. Technically as long as the bull channel holds, bears got nothing. First target next week is closing gaps below. It would be amazing if bear get down to 21400 fast, then 21000 is possible next week.
Invalidation is above 22300.
short term: Neutral until we break below 21400.
medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full fucking bear mode.
current swing trade: Scaling in and out of shorts with stop 22300.
chart update: Adjusted medium term bear leg down to 20800/21000.
#202505 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Huge rejection right under the previous lower high, which now makes it 3 failed attempts to get above 22k and find acceptance. The selling on Friday was surprising enough to expect follow-through because many traders got trapped.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20000 - 22500
bull case: Bulls need to keep this a higher low above 21400 or risk that market will go much lower to 21200 or even 20600. The 50% retracement of this trading range is 21600 and market stopped around that price on Friday. No matter how you want to draw this right now, it’s either a descending triangle or a trading range and the bulls are not favored to buy this rejection again. They need a bigger surprise than the bears on Friday to stop this from going down.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears have now the best chance of doing another deep pullback below 21000. The surprise on Friday was big enough that we can expect follow-through selling. First bear target is to make a new low below 21419 and then we have 21200 as bigger previous support. Last target for next week would be around 20800 where market decides if we make lower lows or continue in this trading range under the ath. If you look at the weekly NDX chart, you can see that we are also in a bigger diamond pattern, which is just a form of a trading range with expanding and now contracting ranges.
Invalidation is above 22000.
short term: Bearish. I do think the top 21965 will hold and we go down from here. For now I doubt we will make lower lows below 20800 though.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bear trend lines
#202505 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market is probably finding a bottom here around 72 and on the 4h chart this looks like a lower low major trend reversal. Confirmation would only be above 74 though. So any longs with stop below 71.8 are a good trade from the current structure. Bears have tried to make meaningful lower lows but the Monday low 72.39 was only broken by 47 ticks.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 71 - 80
bull case: Bulls let it go a bit below 74 but it does look like they want to buy this more aggressively, given the last 2 big bull bars from Friday. They need to make higher highs now and then I don’t think many bears want to fight this after they have tried to get the market below 71 for a whole week. The 50% retracement for the complete bull trend was around 74 and for the bear leg from 79 down to 72 is around 76. So my first target for the bulls is finding acceptance above 74 and then 76. On the weekly chart you can see than bulls kept it way above the breakout price of 69, so once we are seeing decent 1h closes above 73, they have taken control of the market again.
Invalidation is below 71.
bear case: Bears want to continue sideways between 71 and 74. The longer they do this, the better for them because we are still below the daily 20ema. Market has gone nowhere the past 5 days but at least the bears closed 4 out of 5 days red. Their issue is, that they can not find sellers below 72 so the market will try only so many times at a support price before it tries the other way or strongly breaks below it. I do think we will see a bigger impulse either on Monday or Tuesday and my money is not on the bears right now.
Invalidation is above 75.
short term: Slightly bullish until we get a 1h close above 74, then really bullish for 78/80. Bearish only below 71 and on very strong selling pressure. Neutral 71 - 74.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added broken bear trend line and possible very shallow bull trend lines on higher tf.
#202505 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Really bad for the bulls that we now have 3 big daily bear bars closing on their lows and we are making new lows below 98k. A measured move down brings us exactly to the January low 89k and I do think bears are heavily favored to get it. Bulls have tried 2 weeks to print 110k and failed again to find more buyers above 105k.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 90k - 110k
bull case: Bulls failed two weeks to get above 110k. Another huge rejection for them. For now we have to expect buyers to appear around 90k again but other than that, bulls have nothing before that.
Invalidation is below 88k.
bear case: Bears took control of the market again on late Friday and we are now below 98k. We have no bigger support until 93k. We are in a 3 month trading range and as much as I would love to see this crash down to 70k, it’s unlikely that we break strongly below the range. At least for now. So downside will probably be limited again to 88k / 90k and if bears are strong, they would keep it below 97k to setup a big second leg down.
Invalidation is above 110k.
short term: Neutral. Play the range until broken.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
We are in a big trading range until it’s clearly broken. Bearish targets will only happen once we get a strong move below 90k.
current swing trade: Nope
chart update: Nothing
ARKUSDT Trendline Betrayal Bearish Plunge !Trendline Break
The chart shows a clear upward trendline that has been broken. This break indicates a potential shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish.
Retest Confirmation
After breaking the trendline, the price retraced upward, testing the previous trendline as resistance (red zone). This is a classic confirmation for a short setup.
Entry and Risk Zone
Entry :The short position is initiated just below the retest of the trendline, around the price of 0.5510.
Stop-Loss : Placed slightly above the retest zone, around 0.5897, to minimize risk if the price reclaims the trendline.
Target Zone
The blue area indicates the take-profit target, with a potential level around 0.3908. This level might have been chosen based on prior support or Fibonacci retracement levels.
Risk-to-Reward
The setup has a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, with the stop-loss relatively close to the entry and a much larger distance to the target.
Market Context
The sharp drop in price following the trendline break signals strong bearish momentum. Ensure that this move aligns with higher timeframes and broader market sentiment for confirmation.
Key Considerations
Watch for any sudden buying pressure or market reversal signs that could invalidate the setup.
Volume analysis can provide additional confirmation for the strength of the trendline break and the retest rejection.
Stay disciplined with stop-loss placement to manage risk effectively.
Book profits with usual profit locking rule of 10% by moving SL to BE for safe ride
Bearish Bitcoin Move Looms Ahead of FOMC VolatilityThis week is expected to bring heightened volatility to the Bitcoin market due to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which typically impacts financial markets significantly. Bitcoin is currently trading at 101,958.3 USD, down 0.57% in the session, and is within a key zone of interest, 102k–96k, which could act as a magnet for price movements due to the significant liquidity below these levels. A short position has been placed at 108,353.0 USD, targeting lower levels within the identified range, with a stop loss positioned at 114,193.4 USD to manage risk effectively in case of a bullish breakout. Multiple take-profit levels have been identified, with the first target at 103,214.5 USD, the second at 102,726.4 USD, and the final target at 92,004.8 USD. The setup is designed to capitalize on the potential downward move while maintaining a controlled risk. Peak profit for this trade is currently noted at 0.71%, with further room for expansion if the price descends into the broader range. Significant liquidation zones are clustered below the 102k level, which may lead to sharp moves downward if triggered. With FOMC week ahead, market participants should expect unpredictable price swings, requiring disciplined execution and adherence to risk management. The bias remains bearish for Bitcoin in the short term, given the current market structure and the presence of strong selling pressure near the identified zones. This short trade setup aligns with the technical and fundamental conditions anticipated for the week, and traders are advised to monitor key levels closely and adjust their positions as necessary to adapt to evolving market conditions.
Long Entry on SOLUSDT – How to Trade a Bullish Demand Zone 🚀 **Long Setup on SOLUSDT – Bullish Demand Zone Confirmation** 🔥
📌 **Key Trading Idea:**
This trade setup is based on **demand zone theory**, where price creates a strong bullish reaction after testing a fresh demand level. Here’s a breakdown of the strategy:
✅ **Demand Zone Identified:** A high-probability area where buyers are stepping in.
✅ **Entry Point:** Price confirmation after a bullish demand zone is created on h1 or m15.
✅ **Stop Loss & Target:** Risk management is applied based on key Fibonacci retracement levels.
✅ **Volume Confirmation:** Strong volume uptick supports bullish momentum.
📊 **Why This Trade Works?**
- **Liquidity Grab**: Weak hands get shaken out before the real move.
- **High R/R Ratio**: A favorable risk-to-reward trade.
🎯 **How to Trade This Setup?**
📉 **Wait for a clear bullish rejection or a new demand zone created on h1 ** before entering.
📈 **Confirm with volume** – No volume = No trade.
⚡ **Set realistic TP levels** based on Fibonacci & previous resistance.
💡 **Follow for More Trading Insights & Chart Breakdowns!** 📊
📩 **Drop a comment if you’re taking this trade! 🔥**
#SOLUSDT #CryptoTrading #TradingView #PriceAction #SmartMoney #DemandZone #Forex #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #LongEntry #BreakoutTrading
ETH | C&H | $8k+++☕The C&H Pattern With a Little Tilt to It💧
This chart showcases how we can grab forecasted targets using chart patterns similarly to my other postings and how we can use these patterns to our convictions
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD is currently still trading within the falling wedge pattern and will play a big role into being the cause of the C&H breakout
As shown on the chart we can see the main trendline target in orange somewhat lines up with fib extension and C&H trajected target which creates a great confluence in forecasting what's next to come
After price makes it's way to breakout at the upper trendline we should see a push towards $4,800 in the acts of a Pullback Trigger and Not Permanent Resistance
Price action doesn't go in a straight line forever so we'd have to see a cool off period retesting atop from the breakout (SnR) for a second point contact to launch price further, the first point contact is where we are now, and by adding a SMA or EMA this will allow for optimal accumulating zones
The red squares are the major and minor pivot points to calculate the levels for the Fibonacci extensions and also line up with Fib Channel which was measured from the base structure (main trendline in orange).
Follow to stay tuned on what price action will do next after this hopefully plays out🚀
CADJPY: Strong Reversal After Liquidity GrabEducational Insight
The market surged to the upside, targeting liquidity highs to trigger stop losses. Once liquidity was cleared, price stalled and reversed sharply.
By marking key candle highs and lows, we identified swing points to count the market waves. We applied the 2 Data Points Rule to validate the break of support or resistance—this is a crucial concept in confirming true market structure shifts.
Additionally, we analysed the wavesofsuccess wave structure, focusing on the Momentum Low and what to anticipate when price reaches this level.
🚀 If this insight adds value to your trading, smash the boost and drop a comment!
Blessings.
BTC | Developing Distribution Pattern | FractalsWe're looking at a disjointed channel dating back from 2019 capturing all the last two cycle tops and bottoms without having to use the log scale
This distribution pattern caught my eye as it seemed very similar to the fractal top in 2021 and of course we can spot partial fractals of distribution all over the chart like the ones I circled in yellow
As we trade in this top like area we have to remember BTC is a Risk-On asset and is sensitive to economic data
Lets take a look at altcoins CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 at the bottom, we can notice that every time there was a developing continuation pattern, perhaps a bullish flag in this scenario, BTCs price slows down with CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D looking weaker within the 60 - 65% zone
Seeing this I dont think we'll see a 70% dominance with alts looking to rise from the dead and to shoot for for the moon🌝
🎯My relevant post shows targets of $115k BTC from the falling wedge breakout also in confluence with a fib extension eyeing at the same level as the flag pole target, 100%
We can also overshoot to around $120k
One more thing when we line up TOTAL3s bullish patterns with BTCs price you'll notice BTC starts to underperform and while ALTs look to over perform
We all know what happens after ALTs hit the moon and BITSTAMP:BTCUSD may be telling us something is coming soon.
Stay tuned for more BTC updates and lets get through this together🚀
ASIANPAINT : Going Long for about 1.25% of the net capitalTook a position in the scrip, allocating about 1.25% of the net capital. I am expecting a potential upside of around 38% to the upper trendline of the channel that has formed.
I will consider adding to the position if the price falls approximately 23% from the current level and touches the longer timeframe trendline, which is a significant support level for the scrip.
📢📢📢
If my perspective changes or if I gather additional fundamental data that influences my views, I will provide updates accordingly.
Thank you for following along with this journey, and I remain committed to sharing insights and updates as my trading strategy evolves. As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions or comments.
Other posts related to this particular position and scrip, if any, will be attached underneath. Do check those out too.
Disclaimer: The analysis shared here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in all markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It's essential to conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this analysis are solely mine. It's important to note that I am not a SEBI registered analyst, so the analysis provided does not constitute formal investment advice under SEBI regulations.
EUR/GBP Collapses Bearish Breakout SetupThis chart shows a short trade setup based on the price action and trendline analysis of the EUR/GBP pair on the 2-hour timeframe. The price was moving within an ascending channel, defined by two parallel white trendlines. The ascending channel suggests a temporary bullish trend where the price consistently made higher highs and higher lows.
At the top of the channel, the price experienced resistance, which led to a breakdown below the lower trendline. This breakdown signals a potential reversal of the bullish trend and marks the start of bearish momentum. The break of the lower trendline is the key signal for the short entry.
The breakdown also aligns with a shift in market sentiment, as the price failed to maintain its position within the channel. The sell-off that followed confirmed the validity of the breakout. The price is now trending downward toward a lower level, which could act as a support area.
The key levels to watch include the recent breakout point, which could act as resistance if the price attempts a pullback, and the lower support level near 0.82856. This support level aligns with a previous price range and serves as the potential target for the short position.
The descending movement following the channel break suggests strong selling pressure. To confirm the continuation of the bearish trend, the price should not re-enter the ascending channel. A retest of the lower trendline could provide further confirmation of the breakdown, while a failure to hold below it could invalidate the bearish bias. This setup reflects a clear trend reversal strategy focusing on trading the breakout of an ascending pattern.
2025-01-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 1h 20ema is flat as your first girlfriend. Don’t over analyze this trading range. 50% of it is around 21560 and we are seeing bulls buying dips, taking the stairs while bears violently crash the elevator down in between. Will likely see a bigger impulse tomorrow or Monday. I have no bigger opinion on which side will get it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21300 - 21780
bull case: Bulls need to close the big gap to 21900 and maybe some points above to get all the stops and turn the market truly neutral again. For now bears are defending it well, which is bad for the bulls. Bulls have going for them that they are printing higher highs and higher lows and are trading above the daily 20ema but as long as the gap stays open, they are not doing enough.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears only argument is the open gap to 21900 but other than that, they are fumbling it again. If try get to 21450 or below tomorrow and fail again to print lower lows below 21350, odds favor the bulls to rally hard into the weekend.
Invalidation is above 21900.
short term: Neutral as can be. 21560 is my mid point for this and mean reversing was profitable the past 2 days.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 21450 or selling above 21700 has been good the past 2 days. Do it until it clearly is not working anymore.
2025-01-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Finally some higher highs again. Market could now transition into a wider trading range and 70 - 76 is my rough guess for now. Bulls need to keep the tiny bit momentum going tomorrow and break above the bear channel and trade above 74 again. If bears dip it below 72.6, we could very well print a lower low below 72 and the range might also expand to the downside.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 76
bull case: Bulls made the first higher high again and need follow-through badly. Above 74 the bear trend is for sure over and a trading range is most likely. Good for the bulls is, that on the daily chart we are still trading above the breakout price which was roughly 70. If they can reverse this strongly, they have a chance of retesting the highs over the next weeks. For now I think they have to be content with staying above 72 and maybe get to 74 again.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears want to keep the market below the daily 20ema and prevent bulls from making meaningful higher highs above 74. The bear channel is still valid and on the daily chart the past 3 trading days look like a weak two-legged pullback to the moving average and that is usually a very good buy/sell signal in the direction of the trend. Bears want to print a new low below 72 and then testing 70.
Invalidation is above 74.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 74 and bearish below 72.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying below 72.4 was good since Monday.
GOLD ROUTE MAP FOR TODAYCurrently, we're analyzing the 1-hour chart of gold with a Bullish BIAS for the day. Our strategy is to wait for the price to pull back into the demand zone, and once we spot a clear bullish reversal confirmation, we'll look to enter a buy trade from there. Patience is key, but the setup looks promising.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analyze or prediction.
#XAUUSD 1H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
EurUsd - This Will Impact Your Trading In 2025!EurUsd ( OANDA:EURUSD ) is heading much lower:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
For basically an entire year, EurUsd has been retesting a massive previous support which was then turned resistance. Over the past couple of months, we then saw a significant drop breaking all structure towards the downside and it is quite likely that this won't stop soon.
Levels to watch: $1.090, $0.970
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
#BTCUSD TODAY FORECASTRight now, we're analyzing the 2-hour timeframe for BTCUSD, and the red zone on the chart is our selling area, where we expect the price to drop further. Wait for confirmation and execute the trade only after that confirmation.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
#BTCUSD 2H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
GOLD ANALYSIS FOR TODAYHere we're analyzing 1H time frame for GOLD. Today I'm looking potential sell move opportunity.
I'm expecting that the gold price further move towards downside at least the area 2725 - 2720.
Now let's see which opportunity market will give us. This analysis is based on SMC concept, price action and Fibonacci retracement tool.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analysis or prediction.
#XAUUSD 1H Technical Analyze Expected Move.