GOLD 1-H ROUTE MAPToday, we are analyzing the 1-hour time frame chart for Gold. My bias for today is on the buy side, based on market structure mapping and the SMC concept. Once the market price reaches my key levels, I will wait for confirmation according to my rules and strategy. At the same time, I will keep an eye on the volume and RSI indicators to find a strong confirmation and execute my trade with precision.
The market will not move higher until it hunts its full SSL. And if we decide to buy from here, the first resistance we will face will be around the 2888-90 area, and the second resistance will be near the 2895-2900 price range. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential out comes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analysis not financial advice.
#XAUUSD 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
Priceaction
GBP/JPY TODAY EXPECTED MOVERight now, we are analyzing the GBPJPY 1-hour time frame chart. My bias for today is towards the sell side, and I will be looking to sell the market today. As you can see on the chart, these are our key levels. Once the market price reaches our key levels and POI, we will wait for confirmation whether the price shows a bearish confirmation or forms a reversal candlestick pattern, so we can find the ideal entry point for our trade and execute it with precision. The most important thing to remember is to always wait for confirmation.
Make sure to always use a stop loss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analysis. Let's see what happens.
#GBPJPY 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
2025-03-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Weekly outlook gave clear invalidation points and bulls broke above. We have a clear measuring gap down to 22800 now and until that is closed, it’s bullish all the way to new ath and maybe 24k.
current market cycle: trading range but we could see the resumption of the bull trend tomorrow
key levels: 22260 - 24000
bull case: Bulls defended the breakout and had a perfect retest with last weeks close. Every pullback now should stay above 23000 and then we are free to test 23500 and maybe even 24000. Bulls are in full control again.
Invalidation is below 23000.
bear case: Bears failed in breaking below the breakout of 22800ish and they had to give up after we printed 4 consecutive 1h bars with big tails below. 1h 20ema is support and until bears get consecutive closes below it again, they don’t have much. I think most bears will wait how high this one goes and start looking for shorts above 23500.
Invalidation is above 23600.
short term: Bullish for 23500 and maybe 24000. Bearish only below 22900.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Bullish above invalidation point yesterday given. Hope you made some.
AUDCHF: Strong Bullish Continuation 🇦🇺🇨🇭
It looks to me that AUDCHF will continue rising.
A confirmed breakout of a neckline of a cup & handle pattern
on a 4H time frame provides a strong bullish signal.
The price will likely reach at least 0.5627 level soon.
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USOIL Market Outlook – Key Levels and Scenarios📌 Market Structure
🔹 Key Support Zone (~64.50 - 65.30 USD)
The price has tested this area multiple times, highlighted by the red dashed line at the bottom.
A pronounced lower wick suggests a possible exhaustion of bearish pressure.
🔹 Intermediate Resistance (~68.20 - 70.00 USD)
The price has reacted to this zone, which appears to be a former support turned resistance.
Caution is needed for potential rejections in this range.
🔹 Liquidity and Wider Supply Zone (~75.00 - 80.00 USD)
This area, marked with red/purple gradients, represents a selling zone with a high concentration of orders.
The price could be drawn to this level if the bullish phase continues.
📉 Bearish Scenario
Failure to break above 68.20 - 70.00 USD could lead to a retest of 64.50 - 65.30 USD.
A breakdown below this level could open the way toward 62.40 - 60.00 USD.
📈 Bullish Scenario
A weekly close above 68.20 - 70.00 USD could trigger a recovery toward 75.00 - 77.00 USD.
A breakout above 80.00 USD would invalidate the long-term bearish structure.
🔎 Conclusion:
The price is currently at a critical stage around 68 USD, with potential for a pullback.
Monitoring the reaction between 65.30 - 68.20 USD will be key in determining the next direction.
Volume and macroeconomic factors (OPEC, oil inventories, Fed policies) will be crucial in confirming the trend.
#202511 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Wild week where market reversed the huge selling on Friday and the daily bear bar looks more bullish than bearish. 23k is the battleground right now. If bears keep it a lower high, we could test further down but if they don’t, bulls could try and go for 24k. News certainly help in fueling this right now.
current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000
key levels: 22000 - 24000
bull case: Above 23500 we could go for 24000 next week. This did not change since market went nowhere last week. Bulls defended the gap to 22000 and that is as bullish as it get’s. Plan for bulls is clear, keep market above the adjusted bull trend line around 22500 and make new ath above 23500, likely going for 24000. The channel looks still good, so trade it like it’s valid.
Invalidation is below 22400 because it would invalidate the channel but only a print below 22000 would change the character of this market.
bear case: Bears have shown decent selling pressure for 1200 points but that does not matter if they can not get below 22000 again. I do think it’s not unlikely that the bears have the argument for a head & shoulders, if 23000 proves to be bigger resistance now. I’d still favor the bulls for now but if we fail below 23200 for the next 3-6 days, the bull trend line would be broken and market could test lower, if overall sentiment shifts again after the expected short squeeze. Yes, I do keep in mind that German stocks are likely profiting big time from the spending spree Germany will likely go on but I am a price action daytrader. I read the chart and develop a thesis would could happen and if it does I put on risk. This front-running could very well reverse. Bears only have their confirmation below 22000 and for now market has tested 22147 - 22300 enough that bears gave up.
Invalidation is above 23500.
short term: Neutral around 22800/23200. Above 23200 we will retest 23500 and above that we likely try for 24000. 22400-22800 is the dead zone and only below 21900 bears have good reasons for lower prices. For now I can’t see any reason why this would fall below 22000 next week.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
#202511 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Let’s take this from the weekly chart. Market has not dipped below the 2024-09 low but that was way too much to expect for bears. 14% down in 4 weeks straight selling is beyond unsustainable but it’s also very very unlikely that this was it and we just go up again. My thesis is a new bear trend until proven otherwise. How would bulls do that? Anything above 21100 would be too high for a retracement in a strong bear trend and it would likely fit a trading range narrative. Trading range would mean 2024-04 low at 17900 to 2024-12 ath at 22450. Bear trend is drawn on the chart and would lead to at least the 50% retracement of this bull trend since 2022, down to around 17500. When will we know? If market retraces below or to the 50% around 20400 and strongly reverses down again, I see my theory confirmed so far. For next week I can’t see anything but a big short squeeze to trap late bears. 19140 was such a weird place to reverse and I can only see this already being strong bulls buying the dip and trapping everyone who thought we were going for 19000.
current market cycle: strong bear trend but pullback expected
key levels: 19140 - 20500
bull case: Bulls have only going for them that this selling is beyond overdone and climactic and Friday' was a very strong bullish day on huge volume. My bear target was 19600 and we almost printed 19000. 20000 is the first obvious target for a pullback but I think a 50% retracement to 20700 is doable, since the daily 20ema is also at 20400. I expect the market to fight the real battle for either the new bear trend or a multi-year trading range around 20000.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Bears showed more strength and got below my measured move target of 19600 but failed above the 2024-09 low at 18867. Last time bears made this much money was 2024-07 where we corrected for 16.91% to then rally 25.59% higher over the next 19 weeks. Hand on heart I do think it’s much more likely we will see that pattern from 2024 repeated than a new bear trend. A trading range 19000 - 22450 is much more likely than going down to 16000. As of now. Can this change if the US really goes into a bigger recession? Of course but for now this is front-running the possible risk because we got up so much the past years that funds really need to secure some profits this time. For next week I have absolutely nothing for the bears. This selling is overdone and market is so much more likely to squeeze late bears, that I won’t look for any short trades until we see 20000 or higher.
Invalidation is above 21100.
short term: Heavy bullish bias for 20000 and likely 20400. Above 20500 air would get real thin again, if this was the start of a bear market. For now I think the pattern from 2024-07 is more likely to repeat than the bear trend as drawn on the chart.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We don’t know if we have printed the W1 of the new bear trend or repeat the pattern from 2024, where we sold of very strong to reverse even more strongly and make new all time highs. Market needs a bounce and around 20000/20500 we will see the real battle for the next weeks.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Updated the possible bear trend and added a bullish alternative to show what we did in 2024. For now the bullish path is more likely.
#202511 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Weekly chart. First green week after 7 consecutive bear weeks. Astonishing eh. Weak bull bar anyhow and sideways is more likely than anything above 70, for now at least. We have now seen higher highs but the 2024-04 highs were not broken and market failed below 80. So the multi-year contraction is still valid. Same for the downside. Lows were not broken for now and bears would need to get below the 2024-09 low to make new ones.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 65 - 70
bull case: Bulls have nothing. Still. They need a daily close above 70 to start having arguments again. For now they just stopped new lows after 7 weeks and any bounce is likely to get sold again. Daily 20ema at 68.4 is their next target and above that they could try for 70. Since we made higher lows and lower highs last week, we are obviously in a triangle, which could break on Monday.
Invalidation is below 64.
bear case: Bears needed to take profits and reduce risk at these lows that were previous support. For now I see the chance of another leg down as very low so I don’t have many arguments for the bears. If we close strongly below 65, it opens up 64, then 62 but we have so many previous lows (support) down here, it’s just not a good short trade.
Invalidation is above 71.
short term: Neutral again. No shorts for me down here. Want to see either 70 or 63 next week.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Minor adjustments to the trend lines.
#202511 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Trading range week is behind us. Targets below are the same. 75k and maybe 70k. Bulls need to claim 95k again. I don’t have much to write about this right now. It’s a clear bear trend but it’s trying to bottom out above 75k. Next dip below 80k is the most important one. If bears fail again, we could try to 100k again.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 70k - 94k
bull case: Bulls need anything above 91k to break above the bear trend line but giving this some room, even 94k could still not be enough for them to stop this bear trend. They are doing good at keeping the market above 80k and if they prevent the bears from testing the previous ath at 73.8k, that would be the third try and likely the last before many bears give up and bulls could test higher again.
Invalidation is below 70k.
bear case: Bears need to close the bull gap down to 73800, no ifs or buts.
Invalidation is above 94k.
short term: Neutral. Need strong selling momentum again for me to join this.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. It’s happening. 70k/75k and then I expect a bigger bounce first. Then we will see if we can go lower or not. For now it’s very low probability that the big bull trend line from 2023-10 breaks anytime soon.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
WTI - Weekly Forecast - Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 64.000, resumption of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 79.361 breaks.
If the support at 64.000 is broken, the short-term forecast -resumption of uptrend- will be invalid.
TVC:USOIL BLACKBULL:WTI
Technical analysis:
A peak is formed in daily chart at 79.355 on 01/15/2025, so more losses to support(s) 64.900 and minimum to Major Support (64.000) is expected.
Take Profits:
68.354
70.182
72.434
74.449
77.410
79.361
83.961
87.000
93.882
100.802
109.192
126.350
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GBP/USD - Potential Bearish Reversal Setup
📉Market Structure:
The pair has been in an uptrend, forming a rising channel. However, price is now facing strong resistance around 1.2936 - 1.3009, showing signs of exhaustion. A potential reversal could be forming.
🔍 Key Levels:
Resistance Zone: 1.2936 - 1.3009
Current Price: 1.2936
Target Support: 1.2208
📊 Trade Idea:
A rejection from the resistance zone could initiate a bearish move.
A confirmed breakdown below 1.2900 may trigger further downside toward the 1.2208 target zone.
Stop-loss placed above the 1.3009 resistance to manage risk.
🚨 Confirmation & Risk Management:
Bearish Confirmation: Rejection from resistance with strong selling momentum.
Invalidation: A breakout above 1.3009, indicating bullish continuation.
Risk Management: Stop-loss at 1.3009 with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
This setup suggests a short opportunity if price respects resistance and begins a downward move. Traders should watch for confirmation signals before entering.
GOLD(XAUUSD) -Weekly forecast,Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
2772.38 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 2832.55 on 02/28/2025, so more gains to resistance(s) 3000.00, 3050.00, 3080.00 and more heights is expected.
Take Profits:
2833.00
2879.11
2955.00
3000.00
3050.00
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XAU/USD Breakout – Trend Continuation or Pullback?Gold (XAU/USD) has recently broken out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling strong bullish momentum. This breakout was accompanied by a price surge of approximately 4.47%, pushing the price towards the $3,005 resistance level.
The question now is: Will gold continue its bullish trend, or will we see a pullback before the next move?
📊 Technical Analysis:
1️⃣ Symmetrical Triangle Breakout
The symmetrical triangle pattern formed over several weeks, with price consolidating within the narrowing structure.
A clear breakout above the triangle confirms the bullish momentum, suggesting further upside potential.
2️⃣ Measured Move Target
The breakout's measured move (equal to the height of the triangle) projects a potential target near $3,056.
This level aligns with a historical resistance zone, making it a key level to watch.
3️⃣ Key Support & Resistance Levels
✅ Resistance:
$3,005 – Recent high where price is currently facing resistance.
$3,056 – Next major upside target, based on the breakout projection.
✅ Support:
$2,931 – Previous breakout zone; a retest could confirm support before another rally.
Ascending Trendline – Acting as dynamic support for the ongoing uptrend.
📉 Potential Scenarios to Watch:
✅ Bullish Case: Trend Continuation
If the price consolidates above $2,984-$2,931, buyers may push gold towards $3,056 and beyond.
A strong breakout above $3,005 with volume confirmation will likely signal further bullish strength.
❌ Bearish Case: Pullback Before Rally
Gold may retrace towards $2,931 (previous resistance turned support) before resuming its uptrend.
A break below $2,931 could lead to deeper retracement, possibly testing the ascending trendline.
🔍 Trading Strategy & Considerations:
📌 Bullish Traders: Watch for support at $2,931 and a break above $3,005 for confirmation of the next bullish leg.
📌 Bearish Traders: Look for a failed breakout above $3,005 or a rejection at $3,056 for short-term pullback opportunities.
💡 Final Thoughts:
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with bullish momentum intact. However, a pullback before the next leg up remains a possibility. Traders should monitor key levels and price action confirmations for the next move.
🚀 What’s your outlook on gold? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
NZDCHF - Weekly Forecast - Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 0.49439, beginning of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 0.52680 breaks.
If the support at 0.49439 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of uptrend- will be invalid.
OANDA:NZDCHF
Technical analysis:
A peak is formed in daily chart at 0.51845 on 02/20/2025, so more losses to support(s) 0.49950 and minimum to Major Support (0.49439) is expected.
Take Profits:
0.51043
0.51780
0.52680
0.53798
0.55094
0.56221
0.56728
0.57630
0.58900
0.60187
0.65051
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NZDCAD: Strong Bullish Signals 🇳🇿🇨🇦
I see 2 strong price action confirmations on NZDCAD:
the price broke a resistance line of a bullish flag
and then formed a confirmed change of character CHoCH on a 4H.
I think that the market will continue a bullish rally.
Next resistance - 0.83
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AUDCHF: Strong Bullish Chart Pattern 🇦🇺🇨🇭
AUDCHF formed an inverted head & shoulders pattern on a 4h time frame
after a test of a key intraday/daily horizontal support.
After a deep retest of a broken neckline, we finally see a positive bullish reaction.
I think that the market will rise and reach 0.56 level soon.
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AUDUSD Price ActionHey traders! It's the last trading day of the week, so let's dive into some analysis on this pair.
We can see that price has grabbed liquidity on both the upside and downside. At the top, a new supply zone has formed, sweeping liquidity from the previous supply zone. On the flip side, there's also a demand zone where liquidity has been collected.
Right now, we’ve got internal liquidity on both sides, making this a solid area to look for trade opportunities. Aim for a 1:3 to 1:5 risk-to-reward ratio—stay disciplined and don't get greedy! Risk management is key.
Wishing you all a profitable day and a great weekend—use it to refine your analysis and come back stronger next week! 📊🔥 Happy trading! 🚀
2025-03-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls can’t get anything going that’s not sold heavily. I can’t see this not closing at the lows tomorrow. The target is obvious, 2024-09 low at 18867. The tight bear channel started at 22245. This selling without any meaningful bounce is so weird and overdone, it’s hard to grasp. We went from melting higher on literally any news to not being able to close green on a week where news were all in line or not bad. I can not take this as a W1 of a new bear market where my next target is likely 18000 for W3 and 16000 for W5.
current market cycle: trading range - only daily closes below 20000 mark the end of this bull trend
key levels: 19000 - 21000
bull case: Easy as pie to write. Bulls need anything above 19800. Anything below is much more likely to that we sell hard again, since it’s not stopping. Bulls can not trap any bears and are quick to give up on any selling pressure. Best for bulls would be to stay above today’s low and make another higher low above 19165. Weekly close above 19500 would surprise me big time.
Invalidation is below 19140.
bear case: Bears are really overdoing it. A 5-10% up move is around the corner I think. Next target below is the September 2024 low at 18867, which aligns somewhat with the current bear channel. The channel is the dominant feature right now, so trade it. My base assumption for tomorrow is another try by the bulls and heavy selling into the weekend. Would not be surprised if we close the week below 19000.
Invalidation is above 19600 but bulls need something above 19800 if they want further upside. 19600 is just the break of the bear channel.
short term: Can only be neutral for now. Having a bullish bias but bulls are not doing enough for now. I wait. 20k is my first target. Nothing changed. Selling down here is not for me.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Will update this on the weekend. Bear trend has started.
trade of the day: Yeah. Globex printed the high of the day early and market could not get above it or 19600 for that matter. I thought a trading range day was much more likely and we had decent two-sided trading but bulls are running for the exists and just want out. 6 x 1h bars that struggled to stay above 19550 was the cue that we likely test down again.
Master Price Action Trading With Expedia Group StockExpedia Group NASDAQ:EXPE stock is dropping as expected. This decline highlights the importance of understanding supply and demand imbalances, particularly on larger timeframes like the monthly chart, which many traders often overlook. Ignoring these imbalances can lead to costly mistakes, as evidenced by the current bearish price action in $EXPE.
The strong imbalance at $195 per share is helping the stock price to drop as expected. We can see bearish price action being formed with room to drop much lower. There is room to reach the latest bullish impulse in the monthly timeframe.
Gold Update | $3k+ Then DumpSimilar to my last gold post we're tracking price using another method, parallel channels and Elliott Impulse Wave.
Price finished correction wave 4 and is now on impulse wave 5 that will take us to $3k+
I'm interested in long positions only working with a 30d - MA. This will help with entries and further price movement on the way up.