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2024-01-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and happy new year. comment: Bears have all the arguments on their side now. Santa rally was drowned and market formed a textbook head & shoulders pattern. My lowest target in my year end special was around 5300 and the h&s target is 5400. The yearly close below 6000 was very important for the bears because now we have multiple confirmations of the sell-off and sell signals going into the new year. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6120 bull case: Bulls are in serious doubt about this bull trend. They need a strong close above 6000 to keep the market neutral between 5900 - 6100. If they manage that, we move sideways for longer. We have a triangle on the daily chart which could hold for a couple more days before we see a bigger breakout. We are also still trading above the weekly 20ema but that’s at 5930 and the next daily bear close will close below. Invalidation is below 5860. bear case: Bears have many arguments on their side. For bulls it’s a bad place to force the market to bottom out because they have much bigger support at 5800. Bulls have also blown the rally by printing the lower high 6107 and the head & shoulders looks too perfect for bears. Volume has also increased decently so bears have now created many good sell signals going into 2025. My rough guess for the next days is either more chop inside the triangle before the second leg down or a fast and decisive move tomorrow/Friday down to 5800 and below to test the bigger bull trend line around 5750. Invalidation is above 6100. short term: Neutral 5900 - 6000. Bearish below 5900 for 5800 and then 5750. Can’t see this going above 6100 but if we do, I am wrong and we likely do 6200. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Market was closed
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
BAC | BIG Drop for Next YearSimilar distribution pattern to 2022 Feb drop, price continues to make Higher Highs and indicators make Lower Highs while trading in overbought zones Dont think its the best time to invest but to rather Trade instead with how high price is. I'm looking at about 40% in price fall by February like the last time but for now long positions may be better at $43, and then price topping out at $50. To prolong this pattern but not necessarily invalidate it I need to see a breakout above $50 and some type of quick retest with price action overshooting to the high end of the Major Resistance Zone $55, then we can end up seeing more than a 40% drop.
NYSE:BACShort
by Nathanl19
2024-12-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral between 20000 - 20100, Bearish below 20000. Bears tried to break down the bear flag and make new lows but failed above 19900 and bulls retraced 50% of it. Good for bears is that they kept the 1h 20ema resistance and xetra closed the year below 20000, which is a sell signal going into January. Bulls did a good job at retracing more than 50% of the sell-off the keeping it above 20000. Market formed a triangle so buy low and sell high inside it. Below 19900 we could see an acceleration downwards and I see the chance of that happening much greater than going above 20160 again. comment: Xetra closed below 20000 and that was very important for the bears. The December bar is now a nasty reversal bar and once we make new lows below 19800, bulls can’t hold long since we could easily pull back down to 19100 - 19400. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19800 - 20200 bull case: Bulls do not have much going for them currently, other than keeping the market close to 20000 and that means above the breakout price for the recent bull leg. They have to keep this above 19800 or this bull leg was indeed the exhaustive end of this bull trend and market will test lower. Bulls would need a daily bull bar closing above 20000 to begin with. Invalidation is below 19800. bear case: Bears are in control but not as strong as I hoped they would be. Daily bear bars all have tails below but at least bears have now printed 5 consecutive bear bars. This looks clearly like a bear flag about to break down after the strong selling from 20500 down to 19800. Confirmation would be a daily close below 19800 and bears next target then is 19500 and testing the bull trend line. Bulls would have to break above two bear trend lines to start making the market neutral again. Invalidation is above 20160. short term: Neutral around 20000. Bearish below 19990 and uber bearish below 19900 for 19800 or lower. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling the pull-back at 20100 down to 19900 was good. Buying 19900 second best trade today.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2024-12-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Bearish. Good selling today and bulls could not close above the breakout price around 5990. The close was near the open of the week and since we had a big gap down, this is bearish confirmation. Below 5900 this could very well close the year below 5860, which would be a nasty bearish reversal bar on the monthly chart and a clear sell signal going into January. Bulls need to break above the trend line and 6000 again and a close above it would be neutral. comment: I am heavily favoring a yearly close below 5900 as of now. The selling is strong enough and bears made lower highs again. Anything below 5860 would surprise me though. We are in a clear bear channel and bulls need something above 5965 and bears a break below 5900. The open of December was near 6100 and the lower bears can close this monthly bear bar, the better. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6050 bull case: Bulls retraced 78.6% of the sell-off which was the fib retracement to the tick. Did it help? No. Very strong selling into the close again and after hours. Bulls need to fight for 6000. The only thing they have going for them is that we made a higher low. Any yearly close above 6000 would be good for them. Invalidation is below 5860. bear case: Bears are trading below the 1h 20ema, daily 20ema and have 2 bear trend lines going for them. They need strong follow through tomorrow and close this below 5865, which was the previous December low. We have nested bear channels on the 1h chart but also a triangle with last weeks low. Objectives for the bears tomorrow are to keep the 1h 20ema resistance and break below 5900 to test 5865. Invalidation is above 6038. short term: Neutral 5950 - 6000. Bearish below 5950 for 5900 and then 5865. Uber bearish below 5865. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling since Globex open. The reversal from the 5918 low was very strong and trapped many late bears. Second best trade was to take it and hold until market stalled for multiple hours near 5990.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202452 - priceactiontds - year end special - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: I’d love to see bitcoin below 70000 in Q1 2025 and MicroStrategy file for bankruptcy in 2025. I think this would be fun. Yes. Market made almost 600% from the 2022-12 low and about 62% of it after Trump was elected again. The bull trend before that, was from 2020 to 2021 where btc made about 1700% - followed by a 77% drop. It’s therefore a reasonable target to assume that btc could half again. The tricky part is always the time frame. By now you should have picked up my bearish bias for 2025 and given the previous correlation to other markets, bitcoin won’t be the safe haven every other crypto bro on x is telling you it will be. 50% retracement would bring us to roughly 65000, which is close enough to many big magnets. Previous ath from 2021, big bull trend line, the breakout retest area and the monthly 20ema which we have not touched since 2023-10. My preferred target would be 32000 but that’s a bit much to ask for as of now. As long as market is holding above 90000, bulls are safe and in control of the market. Once we drop below, I highly doubt there will be many bulls willing to hold through a deep pullback down to 70000, which I expect the selling to accelerate greatly below 90000. What are the odds of another higher high above 108000? Not bad but I think if bulls would have been strong enough for it, they would have gotten it over the holidays. If they manage to retest 108k, my max target for this is roughly 110000. Anything above would surprise me. current market cycle: Bull trend from 2022 is still ongoing but I think we saw the last leg ending at 108367. Market can retest that high and maybe make a higher one but I think the upside potential is very limited. key levels for 2025: 60000 - 110000 bull case: I always try to give a balanced outlook but I don’t have anything for the bulls. 108k was so stretched and peak bubble behavior that it’s pure guesswork if this was the high or not. Technically the shown chart has two trend lines that could reach 115k and market can always overshoot on a spike. I just highly doubt it will happen but I have been wrong before about tops and I can be on this one as well. Invalidation is below 90000. I can not see bulls scaling into this because a pullback could easily test down to 75000 or lower. bear case: The pain trade is to the downside. There is no arguing about that fact. Only issue for bears is that bubbles can go on for longer than anyone’s account can handle. So selling right now with a stop 109k is reasonable but most bears want more confirmation. Below 90000 more bulls have to cover and this will accelerate down. My targets in order are the breakout retest around 75000 and if things get bad enough there, we go down to the 50% pullback and the bull trend line at 62500. There I expect the market to go sideways for more time and depending on how we get there, we can estimate new targets above or below. Invalidation is above 115000 short term: My bearish bias for 2025 is low probability until bears can close consecutive daily bars below 90000. Right now the market is in a trading range near the ath and bulls remain in control. I would not initiate shorts as of now and rather wait for confirmation or another lower high above 105k medium-long term: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good. current swing trade: None
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by priceactiontds
#202452 - priceactiontds - year end special - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Probably the most boring outlook to write. Oil has been in a triangle since 2023-09 and we will see a bigger breakout in 2025. To which side? Absolutely no idea. Oil has been stuck inside a 10% range for the past 10 weeks and it’s almost not possible that the range contracts further. We have nested triangles and the biggest of those can play out a couple of more weeks. It’s always possible that the pattern fails and market could just continue sideways for longer. Since I don’t have a crystal ball, I do not have an opinion on where this could break out. Market is in total balance around 69. I will continue to take this market level by level and play the given range. Since neither side has any arguments for their case, I won’t write a bull/bear case for this. If you don’t like trading ranges, just don’t trade this. current market cycle: trading range (nested triangles on multiple time frames) key levels for 2025: 65 - 75 short term: I won’t make up stuff. Market is as neutral as it gets. Clear support 66/67 and clear resistance 70.5 / 72.3 medium-long term: Nope to the nopedy nope. Go follow some macro schmackro dude who tells the world Oil will go to 100$ again because of *insert hypothetical macro event*. current swing trade: None
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
BAJAJ FINSERV LTDIn the **weekly time frame**, a **symmetrical triangle pattern** that formed since September 2021 had a successful breakout in August 2024. However, shortly after the breakout, the stock price declined due to the lack of support from the **NIFTY index movement**. Looking at the chart, it’s clear that the **₹1550 price range** acts as a strong **demand zone**, and the **trendline support** (TL) is also nearby. Buying in this range would have a very minimal **stop-loss risk**. There’s a good chance the price could reach its **previous all-time high (ATH)** again.
NSE:BAJAJFINSVLong
by Kannansen
6
Reversal Trading Strategy Using GOLDEN RSI Divergence Indicator Overview Reversal trading strategies capitalize on identifying turning points in the market where a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend, or vice versa, occurs. In this post, I will introduce a strategy based on divergence patterns spotted with a custom RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator. This method enhances traditional RSI analysis by making divergence detection clearer and actionable. By combining it with a strong understanding of price action, traders can gain an edge in timing market reversals effectively. Key Features of This Strategy Divergence Analysis: The core of this strategy is to identify bullish or bearish divergences between the RSI and price action. Custom RSI Indicator: The custom RSI indicator simplifies divergence detection by highlighting critical levels and marking divergence points directly on the chart. Confluence with Price Action: Reversals are validated using trendlines, support/resistance zones, and candlestick patterns. Chart Example: S&P 500 Index In the attached chart: Bullish Divergence: The price made lower lows, while the RSI made higher lows (indicated by green arrows). This divergence signaled weakening bearish momentum and potential reversal. Entry Point: A clear breakout above the trendline validated the reversal. Enter long positions near this breakout level. Stop Loss: Place the stop loss just below the recent swing low. Target Profit: Aim for the next major resistance zone or use a fixed risk-reward ratio (e.g., 1:2 or 1:3). How to Spot Divergence Bullish Divergence: Price forms lower lows. RSI forms higher lows. This indicates waning bearish pressure and a potential upward reversal. Bearish Divergence: Price forms higher highs. RSI forms lower highs. This suggests weakening bullish pressure and a possible downward reversal. Why This Strategy Works Strength of RSI Divergence RSI divergence reflects the loss of momentum in the current trend. By detecting it early, traders can position themselves ahead of major reversals. Combining Confluence Factors The success rate of this strategy increases when RSI divergence aligns with other technical factors like: Horizontal support or resistance levels. Trendline breaks. Volume spikes. Practical Tips for Using This Strategy Use Multiple Timeframes: Confirm divergence signals on higher timeframes for stronger setups. Avoid Overtrading: Only act on clear and validated divergence setups to minimize false signals. Risk Management: Never risk more than 1-2% of your trading capital on a single trade. Conclusion This custom RSI-based divergence strategy is a powerful tool to identify high-probability reversal setups. When combined with proper risk management and confluence analysis, it can significantly improve trading outcomes. Start experimenting with this strategy on your demo account and refine your approach before deploying it in live markets. If you have questions or want to discuss this further, feel free to comment below!
SP:SPXEducation
by thejamiul
20
$BTC Dropped Down again and LONG Setup for $105K Price level ✨ BINANCE:BTCUSDT Dropped Down again and LONG Setup for $105K Price level area see on chart... MicroStrategy's Saylor Pitches $600 Million Bitcoin Buy to Jeff Bezos, Coming, SHIB Burns Jump 936%:Crypto News Digest by U.Today. Bitcoin Santa rally' buyers step in to drive BTC price to FWB:98K and Bitcoin (BTC) passed $98,000 after the Dec. 24 Wall Street open as "large spot buyers" lifted deflated BTC price action.The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass put 24-hour BTC short liquidations at nearly $40 million at the time of writing, with the cross-crypto total at $150 million. "Nice strength in bitcoin today," fellow analytics account Bitcoindata21 continued alongside a chart showing necessary volume-weight average price (VWAP) levels to reclaim next. Santa rally talk returns as BTC price gains $5,000 Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTCUSD hitting new local highs of $98,020 on Bitstamp. Up by more than 3% on the day, Bitcoin attracted fresh bids after a shaky start to the week saw a retest of December lows. "Yesterday, Bitcoin showed some signs of a relief rally after which price was rejected to almost new lows. Today, Bitcoin is rebounding yet again and once again into the old support," he wrote. "Overall, as long as the previously lost supports turn into new resistance additional downside should be expected. Conversely, a reclaim of these previously lost supports would obviously be bullish." Disclaimer: Digital asset prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. The value of your investment may go down or up, and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance is not available for any losses you may incur. Past performance is not a reliable predictor of future performance. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance and consult an independent financial adviser prior to making any investment.
Long
by SUBROOFFICIAL
2024-12-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Bears defended the Globex gap and market stayed below the lower bear trend line, which we broke below on Thursday. Very good for the bears but since we opened and closed near Friday’s close, market is in balance for now. Bears need to break below 20000 and bulls above 20150. Clear support and resistance, so play the range or wait for a breakout. comment: Let’s try not to extrapolate more from today’s price action than there was. Open was 40 points below Friday’s close and US session closed 10 points above the EU open. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19800 - 20200 bull case: Bulls stopped the selling near the 50% retracement of Friday’s bull leg. Until they get a 1h bar close above 20150, the market is as neutral as it gets. Above 20150 there probably won’t be any resistance until 20250ish or even 20300. Invalidation is below 19970. bear case: Bears have going for them that they kept it below the channel we broke below from and below Friday’s high, which means we have an open Globex gap. Problem they have is that they tried 3 times to get below 19990 today and failed. Now market has made two credible higher lows and bears can not hold short once we get above 20140. Invalidation is above 20140. short term: Neutral around 20050. Very bullish above 20150 and bearish only below 19980. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 20060 and buying 20000 was good for much more trades than you should take.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2024-12-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. We stayed below Friday’s high but bulls had a really bullish close. Until they get a strong move above 6050, I lean neutral. Above 6050 there is no more resistance until 6100. Bears something below 5965 but for now they could be very happy with any daily close below 6000. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5950 - 6050 bull case: Very strong close by the bulls. Year end rally is on if they get follow through above 6050 tomorrow. A measured move up from Friday’s rally would bring us 6230+. For now we have a clear bull wedge which leads perfectly to 6100 tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears did ok until the breakout above 6030. Now they have a do or die moment again to keep the market below 6050 or they need to cover because market could go all the way up to 6200 or higher. Invalidation is above 6050. short term: Neutral. Very bullish close but bulls need follow through above 6050 tomorrow. If they get it, we probably won’t stop until 6100 or higher. Market is in balance around 6000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling 6030 before EU open and buying 5985 because of the head & shoulders bottom (head was the low 5965) after US open on the 5m tf.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2
"BTC/USD Price Action Analysis: Key Resistance Levels Ahead""Hello Traders, Here's my latest analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) using price action techniques. The market has recently shown a significant downward move, but there is a potential for recovery based on the current structure. Key Levels Identified: Support: $95,548 Immediate Resistance: $102,826 Major Resistance: $107,841 Scenario Overview: Based on the current price action, I anticipate a potential bullish reversal from the $95,548 support level. The market may test the resistance levels at $102,826 and then move towards $107,841. Trade Plan: Entry: Around $96,000 (upon confirmation of reversal) Stop Loss: Below $95,000 Take Profit 1: $102,826 Take Profit 2: $107,841 The yellow horizontal lines represent key support and resistance zones, and the projected white path shows my anticipated price trajectory. This analysis is not financial advice; it's for educational purposes only. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments and let me know your perspective!"
Short
by Tradeaione
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: I know it’s an ugly chart, bear with me. Gold spent 2020 - 2024 inside a 570 point range and started the recent bull trend with the breakout in 2024-03. Since then Gold has made 30%, which is more than unusual to say the least. From 2018 to 2020 it made 50% but only because it lost 36% from 2011 to 2018. Market is much less obvious on higher time frames than I’d like. Both sides have reasonable arguments going for them. For bulls it’s that the bull trend is ongoing while bears could see the leg down from 2826 down to 2566 as the first in the new bear trend. Bulls would like a third leg up which could lead to 3000. Both are valid and that is why it’s most likely that the market will move sideways rather than trend big time to either direction. My favorite path forward would be a trend down to 2300 and then sideways inside a big range 2300 - 2600. current market cycle: Bull trend is ongoing until bears can close consecutive weekly bars below the 20ema, which is at 2640 right now. Could the new bear trend have started with W1 from 2826 down to 2566? Yes. Both can be valid at the same time. key levels for 2025: 2500 - 3000 (if 2500 breaks, 2300 would be the next big target below) bull case: Bulls want a W5 up to 3000. Easy as pie is that read and seeing it on the chart. Hard part, as always, is giving probabilities to it and as of now, I won’t make any. The market is in balance around 2650 and I would need prices above 2760 or below 2560 to have a stronger opinion about it. That’s short but all I have to write about it for now. Can’t make stuff up where there is none. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Bears see the move down from the ath as a W1 of the new bear trend which could lead down to my biggest bear goal for 2025 at 2200ish. Here are the big bear targets in order. First is the 50% retracement of the recent bull trend at 2500. It’s also the breakout price from the W1 high and the old ath from 2011-08. Second bigger target would be 2300 which is a measured move down from the bearish W1 from the ath, the 2023-05 high (breakout-retest) and it would close the big bull gap the market left behind. Third and final target, which is the most unreasonable one for now, is 2200 which is the 50% retracement from the whole bull trend since 2018. Invalidation is above 3050. short term: Neutral. Lower highs and higher lows. Market is in a triangle again and in balance around 2650. medium-long term: Will only give one above 2760 or below 2560. current swing trade: None
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: For the sp500 the start of the bull trend is a bit less clear as for dax. My take is that it started with the 2023-10 low and before that was still the big trading range the main pattern. Does it matter if my wave thesis is off for W1 or where W4 ended? I don’t think it does. My targets (obvious magnets) would still be the same. We have a bull trend that went up a pretty perfect measured move from the Covid low to the 2023-10 low. This will be my biggest target for 2025. We then have a perfect magnet down to the previous ath from 2022-01 at 5300, which is the 50% retracement of the bull trend from 2023-10 to the ath. 5300 will be the first and most important target for the bears in the medium-term. Depending on how we get there, we can estimate on if and how we could get down to 4400. As of now, it is unlikely that we will see 4400 in 2025. Something bigger has to happen and markets need to change drastically. A liquidity event would certainly help. current market cycle: Bull trend from 2023-10 has likely ended already and we are transitioning into a trading range or new bear trend. By the end of January we will know for sure what it will be. key levels for 2025: 5000 - 6200 bull case: Since the bigger western indexes are highly correlated, many arguments for them are the same. Past two years gave the bulls 55+% in gains while the biggest pull-back was 10% in 2024-08. The bulls have made money buying the weekly 20ema for a year and they don’t want to stop because this time it surely is different and valuations are boomer metrics for poor people who did not get in on the latest fartcoin pump. I don’t have anything more to say in this section. Invalidation is below 4400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 4000 again. bear case: Long ongoing climactic bull trend and every new high got smaller. Bears know the bulls have to take profit at some point, especially after a prolonged period without pull-backs. Once the profit taking get’s going, this will accelerate downwards to find bigger support. The first target for the bears is a daily close below 5900 and then a test of the nearest bull trend line around 5800. We can only expect more sideways once we get there. When bears finally break it, 5500 is the next obvious magnet and we then have only one more big bull trend line left, which is the one from the Covid lows. As mentioned above, the 50% retracement for this trend is as perfect as it get’s the previous ath near 5300 and for now this will be my biggest target to hit in 2025. Again, depending on how we get there, we can either estimate lower targets or expect the market to move sideways in a bigger range. Invalidation is above 6300. short term: Same argument for year end rally as for dax. Highest I can see this going for 6250 (give or take) and then we will test the first bull trend line around 5800 over the next weeks. 5500 in Q1 is my estimate as of now. medium-long term: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None but same argument as for dax. Short ETF until we hit 5300 is reasonable.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
1
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax xetra - outlook 2025 comment: We look at the chart from the beginning of the current bull trend in 2022-10. Dax has gained 71% while German GDP is now negative for two consecutive years. The bull trend has 3 clear and big legs up. The upper and lower trend lines were respected and we have seen an acceleration upwards in the last leg. This is not the start of a new and stronger one but the climactic ending which traps the weak & late traders. These are the people who started gambling with Bitcoin as it hit 100k because they wanted some of that fairy dust. A healthy correction would be around 20% which is very close to the 50% retracement of this whole trend, the 2023-11 previous ath and the big bull trend line from the Covid lows. More than enough magnets to test down to that price around 16000. How will we get there? Absolutely no idea and all of my drawings with a potential wave series, are just rough guesses how I think it could potentially play out. Sometimes those are accurate and other times they are way off. It’s a good habit of anticipating what markets could do and take the trade if they do it. Final thoughts. Buying the dax above 19000 hoping for a new and stronger trend upwards because surely this time it’s different, is as unwise as can be if you want to invest your money. Meaning buying and holding or trading on a daily/weekly chart. The odds of this breaking above two major trend lines while we already made 70%+ without any meaningful correction, are so slim that the only reason your are doing it is because of FOMO. current market cycle: Bull trend of the past two years has likely ended and new lows below 18780 will be the confirmation. key levels for 2025: 16000 - 20000 (decent chance we will see 20000 only in the first couple of weeks and then only in a couple of months or years again) bull case: 2 years, 70%+. What more can you dream of? No matter how you draw your technicals on the chart, you can only see this as bullish, if you think we can break strongly above the two upper trend lines and go for 25000 or more. That is trading on hope and nothing else. If you have bought any dip the past two years you were never wrong and that is why we have so many articles about “this time it’s different”. In a bull trend, everyone is a genius. I can not come up with any legitimate reason why this should go meaningful above 20600. The absolute best I can do for this section is that we will likely see a lot of sideways price action at the big magnets. 19000 will be the first over the next days/weeks and at this point, we can’t expect the bulls to just give and let the market melt through those prices. BTFD mentality has been profitable and it will take a while or a huge drop, before it ends and we shift to STR (sell the rips). Invalidation is below 14600. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 12000 again. bear case: Peak bullish sentiment and option positions over the past weeks can only go on for so long before the market reverses big time. It’s perhaps because there is literally no one left to buy because everyone and their dog went max long. The chart is clear and the downside risks are much greater than any coke-induced perma-bull argument on why the markets will break higher another 10-20%. Bears short term targets are the weekly 20ema near the small bull trend line around 19000. There we can probably expect more sideways movement before we get another impulse down to the huge support around 17700. My chart is a best guess about price but the timing could be way off. My biggest target for 2025 is the 2011-11 previous ath 16290, which is very close to the 50% retracement of this bull trend. There is also the big bull trend line from the Covid low and I expect this to be tested in Q1 or Q2 2025. Invalidation is above 20700. short term: The year end rally could give us another new ath or lower high. It does not matter because the upside will probably be very limited. My highest price is 20700 give or take. I fully expect 19000 to be hit over the next 2-6 weeks. medium-long term: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None but I think any short ETF, levered or not, is reasonable. Short term is 19000 and medium term (2-5 months) is 17000-18000.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
2
BTC - This Christmas is NOT different!Hello TradingView Family, this is Richard, and I want to wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you enjoy this Christmas-themed idea.🎄 💡Can you spot a pattern here? As shown in my last two Christmas posts (attached to the chart), BTC broke out of consolidation and surged by around 70%.📈 I believe this Christmas will be no different. For the next bullish wave to begin, a break above the orange zone is needed, which aligns perfectly with the $100,000 round number. What do you think? Will this Christmas follow the structure of the past two years, or will it be different and lead to a deeper correction⁉️ 📚Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. And Remember: All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! Merry Christmas Everyone 🎄 ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
49
2024-12-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Bears confirmed the sell-off and bears are hoping for a second leg down. I lean to closing tomorrow near 20000 instead of a big second leg down tomorrow but I am open to surprises. Anything above 20150 would surprise me. comment : Bear confirmation and I got 2 measured move targets between 19750 and 19800. Can we get there tomorrow? Possible but not likely I think. We saw decent buying above 19900 and I think it’s more reasonable to expect a close of the week around 19950 - 20000. If bear gap from 20100 - 20200 stay open for the whole 100 points, it would show great bear strength and we could expect a bigger second leg down. Base case for me tomorrow is chop from hell. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19800 - 20200 bull case: Bulls tried multiple times and market still closed the US session at the lows. Best bulls can hope for tomorrow is to prevent the second leg down and stay above 19900. Invalidation is below 19900. bear case: Follow-through selling by the bears which is nice. For now I think it’s more reasonable for bears to take profits going into quad witching and that’s probably why we saw a bigger trading range today. Look at the 1h 20ema and if it continues to be resistance. Invalidation is above 20200. short term: Neutral around 20000 and very bearish below 19900. I expect this week to close a bit below 20000 and anything below 19900 would surprise me. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Chop chop. Best trade was probably selling the double top bar 54 (prev high was bar 35).
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
1
2024-12-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - Bearish. I doubt we can close the week below 2560 but we now have a giant bear gap between 2615 - 2652. No interested in selling this tomorrow but if we close the week below 2600, the bull trend is gone for good. comment : No matter what you think China is doing with Gold, this market is going down. We are 200 points below the ath and the bull trend is most likely over. If we close this week below 2630, it would be the second close below the weekly 20ema since January. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2590 - 2640 bull case : Bulls are in pain. Every rip is sold hard and we have a clear bear channel. Hard to come up with arguments for the bulls right now. Best they can hope for is to stay above 2600 but this market is as weak as it gets since last week. Invalidation is below 2595. bear case: 2566 is their main target and I am not confident they can get it tomorrow. I expect more chop near 2600 over the next 2 weeks but for Q1 I have wet dreams about 2400. If you want to trade this, look for shorts near the 3h or 4h 20ema and longs only if 2600 continues to be bigger support. Invalidation is above 2642. short term: Neutral. I don’t expect this to go into the weekend far from 2600 but for next 2 weeks I have 2 measured move targets below 2570. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-19: No bigger opinion on this for the rest of 2024. Market is in balance until we see a new impulse. Likely close around 2600. current swing trade: None trade of the day: selling near the 4h 20ema or bear trend line.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
USD/JPY Delivers Exactly as Predicted—Next Stop: 161.92?Daily Context: The daily timeframe continues to respect the bullish structure, with strong upward momentum intact. We’ve successfully broken the last high, achieving the medium-term target of 156.74. My long-term target of 161.92 remains firmly in place, aligning perfectly with the broader trend. 4H Perspective: The market played out exactly as we talked about in the last analysis. After the accumulation phase, the breakout was clean, and the price delivered a strong markup, reaching 156.74. This perfectly confirms the bullish shift we anticipated following the distribution phase and validates the daily demand zone as a solid foundation for upward movement. Updated Trade Plan: Now that 156.74 has been achieved, I’ll monitor for a potential pullback into the 155.50–156.00 zone for a continuation setup. If the bullish structure holds, the next target remains 161.92, which aligns with the higher timeframe trend. 💡 Key Takeaway: Patience and structure-based trading paid off here—once again, the market delivered exactly as expected. The most important thing is to trade markets with clear context and solid setups. Stay focused, and let the market come to you!
Long
by TraderOuss_LumaNex