#202447 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: I was bullish last Sunday and boi did that pay but now is not the time to buy into this climax. Market is way overdue for a pullback but I would not try to pick the top here. Only longs for me on this but only after we have seen some sideways to down movement. Buying is strong enough to expect a second leg up, which could bring us to 2900. I do think it is highly likely that we close this year above 2800.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market took 48 days to gain the 10% we now lost in 14. This selling is climactic and thus unsustainable. We will soon see a bigger bounce, if not a complete reversal to 2800 again. On the daily chart it looks nasty but on the weekly chart tis but a scratch. Bears closed all but one open bull gap and technically just retested the breakout price for the previous bull leg. This selling is strong enough to seriously doubt much higher prices than 2800. What I do expect is some bounce and more sideways movement between 2600-2800 before we could test lower prices (2300-2400) next year. For now it’s too early to go long, since market has not found a credible bottom yet but since market has not traded much below the weekly 20ema for a year. Swing longs with stop 2480ish are very reasonable.
comment: Market overdid it a bit with the selling and since Monday there are no bears to be found. Measured move up gives us 2866 and if we reach that, 2900 is probably given. You can’t think bearish at all until we reach 2800 again. 5 very strong bull bars closing at the highs. Can’t get any stronger for the bulls. Right now we went from overbought to oversold to overbought. Some pullback is expected and it will likely be a great buying opportunity.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 2500 - 2900
bull case: Can you buy the highs at 2700 and hope for a 6th consecutive bullish day? I would not. Only interested in buying this on pullbacks but I due think it’s bullish and nothing else. Will likely close 2024 above 2800 if not 2900. Next target for the bulls is 2750, followed by 2800. Dip can go as low as 2650 but below I would get more cautious.
Invalidation is below 2650.
bear case: Bears gave up on Monday. No argument for them at all here and I won’t make much up. Can only see more selling pressure coming back around 2800. I expect any pullback to be bought.
Invalidation is above 2750.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral until bulls claim 2630 again. 2540 just has to hold or if we spike down to 2500 we would have to see huge buying or this will flush down more. Bears are in full control until market trades above the 4h ema again.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2570 and now we are at 2712. Perfect. Hope you made some or at least did not short the lows.
short term: Max bullish if we stay above 2650. 2800 is my expectation and 2900 possible.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added two legged correction (ABC)
Priceaction
#202447 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Bullish. 5 consecutive days where bears tried and bulls closed at the highs. Buy signals do not get better than this. Above 6000 we see 6050 and most likely an acceleration up to new highs. 6100 and 6150 the obvious next targets. Bears need a daily close below 5850 and would still have a bigger bull trend line to break there so the downside is likely limited.
Quote from last week:
comment: 50% retracement hit and market closed above it on Friday. My preferred path for next week is a huge bull reversal higher. Is this likely after 2 strong bear days? No it’s not, so I have to wait for either side to show a clear new direction or continuation. If this goes to 5800 without me, so be it. I think after such a big rally with follow through buying above 6000, a retracement to 50% is a buy and not a sell.
comment : Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Market looks like it wants up bad. Every dip is bought heavily on increasing volume. Time is now to get above 6100 or we won’t get it at all. Market is beyond overvalued, overbought and the poor late bulls are just arriving. Guess who will be left holding the bags again.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels : 5850 - 6150 (maybe even 6200)
bull case: Last hurrah. 6100 is my first target but can absolutely go beyond 6200. Anything below 5800 would be the end of this. I don’t feel the need to explain this further. The chart is crystal clear. I have written about this blow-off top for many weeks. Just don’t forget to take profits before this turns badly. I do think the odds of this closing 2024 below 6000 are low but can absolutely happen. These bullish profits since August are outrageous and once the run for the exits begins, it will be ruthless.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears gave up on Friday. If they can’t get below 5900 on Monday, we will see a meltup. No bear will come around big time before 6050 and even then I think they will let the bulls show signs of exhaustion before they be aggressive.
Invalidation is above 5800.
outlook last week:
short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5896 and now we are at 5987. Perfect outlook. Hope you made some.
short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6100+ are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added potential bullish 5-wave series.
#202447 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra: Bullish if we get above 19400 and have a daily close there on Monday. Neutral otherwise. Bullish bias was correct last week and bulls broke above the bear trend line. They have made higher highs and lows and are in control again. I have many blow-off top targets above for all markets and if bulls get follow through next week, chances are very good that we reach them before we see a bigger correction. Bears can only hope to keep it below 19400 or we see 19500 soon. Below 18800 I don’t think bulls can reverse this again and we would drop down to 18500.
Quote from last week:
comment : Another week where I can’t make up new stuff. Bears dipped below 19000 and again but could not close below it even once. Market is in balance around 19200-19300 and until we have a daily close below 19000 or above 19400, we will continue to oscillate around that range. It’s maybe slightly more bearish because we have closed 4 consecutive days below the daily 20ema.
comment : Thursday and Friday changed the character of the market. Bulls broke above the bear trend line and closed both days at the highs. Next target is the last bear trend line around 19430 before we can retest 19600+. Can only be bullish after past 2 days. Bears can only change my mind if they can close below 19100 again. For now I think many bears gave up and try again around 19500/19600. Is this structure very bullish? Absolutely not. I just think a retest of 19600+ is more likely than a close below 19100. The market spend enough time ins this trading range that the next push above could be the last before we correct in a bigger fashion. After this push up, I would not look for bullish targets until we have seen 18000. Market is overdue for a correction. We will see at least 16000 in 2025.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18800 - 20000
bull case: Bulls next target is 19400+ before retest of ath. My most outrageous bullish target is still 20000 and everything is aligned to get there. If bulls can’t get it now, they probably wont get it for years.
Invalidation is a daily close below 19000.
bear case: Not much for the bears until they close below 19100 again. They tried for more than two weeks with going nowhere and now market tries the other direction again. I expect more bears to come around at 19600 and if they won’t hold, 20000. Most likely outcome is a continuation of the trading range 18800 - 19600.
Invalidation is above 19600.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral 19000 - 19300, bullish above for 19600 or higher. Daily close below 19000 is worst case for bulls because there is no more support until 18200.
→ Last Sunday we traded 19210 and now we are at 19322 . 90 points on the week. Who told you it’s neutral inside given range? You are goddamn right.
short term: Very bullish above 19400 and even more above 19600. Below 19100 we are absolutely neutral once again. Hell below 18800.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all for now. The current push is most likely the last of it. Bears will come back soon.
current swing trade : None
chart update: Bull flag still valid but potential bullish 5-wave series added for 20k.
SasanSeifi| Bulls in Control with $0.028 and Beyond!!Hey there, ✌ In this analysis, we examine the price movement of BINANCE:RVNUSDT cryptocurrency in the daily timeframe. As observed in the chart, the price of RVN entered a bullish phase from the demand zone at $0.015. After successfully breaking the supply zone and the descending trendline, the price underwent a pullback to the broken level and is now experiencing slight positive fluctuations, currently trading around $0.02468.
Based on the overall market conditions and the daily price trend, the analysis leans towards a more bullish outlook in the medium-term. RVN is expected to rise to around the $0.028 level, followed by a minor correction before continuing its upward movement towards medium-term targets at $0.030, $0.031, and $0.034.
To better understand the ongoing trend, we need to observe how the price reacts to the supply zone. If the price manages to break through this zone, the bullish trend will likely continue with strong momentum. Key support levels in the daily timeframe are currently in the range of $0.022 to $0.020.
💢 Please remember that this is just my personal viewpoint and should not be taken as investment advice. I’d love to hear your thoughts and share opinions!
Happy trading!✌😎
Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!✌
SasanSeifi|Is PEPE Poised for Another ATH After Corrections?Hey there, In this analysis, we examine the price movement of BINANCE:PEPEUSDT cryptocurrency in the daily timeframe. As shown on the chart, the price started its bullish phase from the $0.000010 range and, after breaking the structural level (BMS) at $0.000012, attracted additional demand. This upward momentum pushed the price beyond its previous all-time high (ATH) of $0.000017, leading to the formation of a new ATH at $0.000025.
Currently, after a significant rally, PEPE has undergone minor corrections. These corrections appeared as a pullback to the previously broken resistance level, with the price showing a positive reaction at $0.000018. Given the current price behavior, it is anticipated that in the medium to long term, PEPE could reach new price targets at $0.000027, $0.000029, and $0.000030.
If the price can maintain the support levels between $0.000018 and $0.000017, the bullish trend is likely to continue, potentially reaching new ATHs.
❌However, given the highly volatile nature of this cryptocurrency and its characteristics as a meme coin, it is advisable to allocate only 1% of your portfolio to this asset.
💡 Keep in mind, this is just my personal perspective and shouldn't be considered as financial advice. I’d love to hear your thoughts and engage in a discussion!
Happy trading!✌😎
Feel free to reach out if you have any questions or need more clarification. I'm always here to assist!✌
If you want any further adjustments, just let me know!
SasanSeifi| Targets at $0.060 and Beyond!!
Hey there, On the 4-day timeframe, BINANCE:VETUSDT has initiated an uptrend from the $0.020 range, reaching the descending trendline resistance at $0.045. Currently, the price is attempting to break this trendline. The overall market outlook suggests a bullish sentiment in the medium and long term.
Expectations:
If the price establishes above the descending trendline:Potential growth targets are $0.060 and $0.070.Rejection and pullback from these levels may set the stage for further bullish continuation toward higher targets.
If the price fails to break above:Corrections toward the $0.033 and $0.030 levels are possible.
These levels could act as significant support zones for a rebound and continuation of the uptrend.
This analysis highlights potential buying opportunities for medium- and long-term investors.
💡 Keep in mind, this is just my personal perspective and shouldn't be considered as financial advice. I’d love to hear your thoughts and engage in a discussion!
Happy trading!✌😎
Feel free to reach out if you have any questions or need more clarification. I'm always here to assist!✌
If you want any further adjustments, just let me know!
NZDCAD: Oversold Market & Pullback 🇳🇿🇨🇦
NZDCAD may pull back from a key daily horizontal support.
The market looks quite oversold after an extended bearish rally.
As a confirmation, I see a double bottom and a breakout of its neckline
on an hourly chart.
Target - 0.8189
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2024-11-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra - Bullish. 3 times bears tried to close below 19000 and failed. Today bears only printed a higher low and the chances for the bulls are good to get above 19260, test 19360 and then melt above to 19600+. If my thesis is correct, market will not drop much again overnight or tomorrow. Anything below 19140ish is probably invalidation for that. If bears do it again, also a decent chance that bulls give up and we finally see a bigger down move but for now I heavily favor the bulls.
comment : Will get a bit whacky now but bear with me. I do think today was W1 of a 5-wave series where W3 will lead to 19450ish and the bear trend line and W5 will lead to 20k because a measured move up from my W3 is almost exactly 20k. So if that will happen, you are welcome. I think the current structure is a simply if this then that case. Market stays above 19000, we will likely break above 19200 for 19450 and so forth. If we print below 19000 again, bulls might give up and we flush down in a bigger move. One side has to give tomorrow and I heavily favor the bulls.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18800 - 20000
bull case: Bulls closed above the first bear trend line and it was another huge reversal day. Bears tried 3 times and it’s time to give up and find more sellers at higher prices. It’s entirely possible that this market will trade between 18800 and 19300 for the next year. Always be open to many possible outcomes.
Invalidation is below 18869.
bear case : Bears still see the trend line as not broken enough and they are still printing lower highs and as long as that is the case, they have made money selling highs and they will continue to do so. Problem for the bears is the higher low from today and that the market closed at the highs. If they manage to get below 19000 again, their odds rise and it’s possible that more bulls give up and we see a bigger move down.
Invalidation is above 19310..
short term: Bullish. Want to see 19300 and maybe 19400+ tomorrow. Everything below 19000 means I’m wrong and we either chop until world ends or flush down.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Very risky longs around 19000 with a wide stop below y low but they paid.
2024-11-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral below 5990, max bullish above. Bearish only below 5900. I have the close near a bear and a bull trend line, so tough spot for any prediction. I do think after so many attempts by the bears, they have given up and we are now free to do the second round of this blow-off top. Consider me surprised if we continue in my drawn bull channel and bears can get this down 60+ points again.
comment : Daily chart tells you 4 consecutive bull bars on increasing volume. Very high chance tomorrow the bears will give up and we test 6050+ again. The bear trend line could still be valid or not, we will only know tomorrow. Above 5980/5990 we will see an acceleration upwards. On the 1h tf you can make a case for 5980 being at the crossing of bull and bear trend line but we will have an answer tomorrow morning.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5855 - 6100
bull case: Higher lows and higher highs. Bulls want a retest of the ath and above. I have a measured move target at 6150 and even above 6300. Bulls have all the arguments on their side for a second leg up but to get it, they would have to prevent the market from getting another strong move down to below 5920. It should probably stay above 5950 to trap many bears who sold the highs again.
Invalidation is below 5940ish.
bear case : Bears do not have much tbh. They sold every high the last days but selling is getting weaker and they can only do it so often before they stop and will only try higher again. Best case for bears is to stay below 5990 and do what we did the whole week, sell the highs for at least 60 points.
Invalidation is above 5990.
short term: Bullish. Above 5990 uber bullish for new ath. Neutral below 5950 and below. Only below 5800 I turn bear.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Same as dax. Yesterdays’ lows held and longs around 5905 were beyond amazing.
NVDA Analysis – Watching Key Levels! Hello Folks
Alright, here’s what I’m seeing on NVDA. We’re still bullish for now, but I’ve marked the level where things could shift if it breaks.
First Entry: Around $140, expecting support to hold and price to bounce.
Second Entry: If price breaks $151, I’ll look to add at $148 after a retest for continuation.
Targets :
TP1: $151.69
TP2: $162.66
Stops below $136, keeping it tight in case the CHOCH level breaks and we start heading lower.
For now, the setup looks solid. Let’s see if $140 holds, or if we dip lower before the next move.
What’s your thought, folks?
GOLD ANALYZEIn this analysis we are focusing on 1H time frame for GOLD. For finding the upcoming moves and changes in gold price. Let's see what happens and which opportunity market will give us.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analyze or prediction.
#XAUUSD 1H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
2024-11-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. More sideways, all given levels still valid and another disappointing day for the bulls. Also a perfect doji when US closed. If you missed my weekly and the update from yesterday, catch up on those. Otherwise move on.
comment: Neutral market around 19150. No deeper meaning until we see the next big move which also closes at the lows or highs. Range and pattern is getting too tight and we will likely see the big move tomorrow or Friday.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18800 - 19360
bull case: No side has an advantage here. Midpoint of the weekly range is 19114 and market closed us session at 19143. Above 19300 we likely go to 19359 and if we break above that, we go much much higher.
Invalidation is below 18869.
bear case: Bears did not dip below 19000 which was good for the bulls but still a daily doji, so no deeper meaning. Bears want a daily close below 19000 bad. If they get it, chances are high that this bull trend is over and we will see much lower prices. Until then, play the range and don’t swing for the fences.
Invalidation is above 19350.
short term : Neutral. Max bullish above 19360 and max bearish below 18860.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Market made only lower highs since bar 33 and selling it was ok on bar 42 or latest 55. Reasons to exit was bar 59 if bar 60 would have traded above it but it did not so bar 61 was a decent bull bar and 62 good follow through, had to get out of longs there latest. Could you also go long then? I would not. Too big of a risk that 15m 20ema is resistance and market is trying to test breakout price from bar 48, which it could not even get up to. I also think buying the double bottom 75 + 77 was ok.
2024-11-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Bullish target was met with 2650 and now it’s big decision time. Bear trend line and daily 20ema was hit. By Friday we will know which way market wants to go. Expecting sideways to down tomorrow but everything below 2600 would surprise me.
comment : Very bullish week so far to potentially big resistance. My preferred path is a two legged correction and we are in the A of it. Market has to pull back soon but if bulls get above 2660, we will see 2700 soon. Last thing I want to do this week is looking for shorts in this.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2620 - 2700
bull case: Bulls are in control again. They now only need a strong close above the daily ema to make the last bears run for the exits. Can they get it before a pullback? I doubt that. Not much more magic to it. Big bull trend is still valid but the peak euphoria is over and we will likely see more bearish legs in between since bears made big money previous 2 weeks.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears who sold late are trapped, they need a pullback to get out of their position. They are at 3 very important prices. Breakout retest is around 2650-2660, daily ema is here and the 50% retracement is at 2672. If these are not good enough for the market to pull back to 2600 or lower, nothing will.
Invalidation is above 2670.
short term : Neutral. Expecting a pullback and then another big rally to at least 2750.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-17: Tough call for the rest of the year. If I had to guess I’d say that we rally to 2800 again before year end, just so we can sell off beginning of 2024 but it’s pure guesswork as of now.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 2625, which market tried for 3 hours to close a 15m bar below and could not. Buying it was good for 350 ticks.
7 Best Chart Patterns For Trading Forex and Gold
If you are studying chart parts, I prepared for you the list of 7 price action patterns you should never miss.
In this article, I will share with you powerful chart patterns for trading forex or any other financial market.
These patters work perfectly for day trading, swing trading and scalping.
We will study real market examples. I will explain the psychology and meaning of each pattern and explain to you how to trade them.
The first chart pattern that we will discuss is double top.
The pattern is formed on the edge of a bullish impulse.
It is based on 2 equal highs and a higher low between them.
A higher low composes a minor support.
A strong bearish signal is a breakout of a neckline and a candle close below that. Entry is on its retest. Stop loss is above the highs.
Target is the closest strong support.
The bullish version of a double top pattern is called double bottom
The pattern is formed on the edge of a bearish impulse.
It is based on 2 equal lows and a lower high between them.
A lower high composes a minor resistance.
A strong bullish signal is a breakout of a neckline and a candle close above that. Entry is on its retest. Stop loss is below the lows.
Target is the closest strong resistance.
The second powerful pattern is a descending triangle formation.
The pattern is formed on the edge of a bullish impulse.
It is based on at least 2 equal lows and 3 lower highs between them.
A falling trend line should respect the lower highs.
A strong bearish signal is a breakout of a neckline and a candle close below that. Entry is on its retest. Stop loss is above the highest high.
Target is the closest strong support.
A bullish variation of a triangle pattern is called an ascending triangle.
The pattern is formed on the edge of a bearish impulse.
It is based on at least 2 equal highs and 3 higher lows between them.
A rising trend line should respect the higher lows.
A strong bullish signal is a breakout of a neckline and a candle close above that. Entry is on its retest. Stop loss is below the lowest low.
Target is the closest strong resistance.
Chart pattern number 5 - Cup & Handle pattern.
Cup & handle pattern is the variation of a double bottom.
The only difference between 2 patterns is 1 lower low and a consequent higher low, instead of 2 equal lows.
Entry trigger and trade execution rules are absolutely the same as with a double bottom.
Stop loss is strictly below the lower low.
A bearish version of a cup & handle is called an inverted cup & handle.
Inverted cup & handle pattern is the variation of a double top.
The only difference between 2 patterns is 1 higher high and a consequent lower high, instead of 2 equal highs.
Entry trigger and trade execution rules are absolutely the same as with a double top.
Stop loss is strictly above the higher high.
The last and the most powerful chart pattern is the range .
Range is a strictly horizontal parallel channel where the price sets equal highs and equal lows, respecting the support and the resistance of the range.
This chart pattern signifies that the market found equilibrium, a fair value.
A strong bullish signal is a breakout of a resistance of the range and a candle close above that.
Target will be the next strong resistance, stop loss should lie below the lows of the range.
A strong bearish signal is a breakout of a support of the range and a candle close below that.
Target will be the next strong support, stop loss should lie above the highs of the range.
Of course, there are more patterns to study but these 7 are essential .
Your ability to recognize them is the key for accurate price action trading.
Learn to spot these patterns and good luck in your trading..
Let me know which patterns do you want to study in the next article.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
GOLD OUTLOOKIn this analysis we are focusing on 1H time frame for GOLD. Today I'm looking potential buy, on the basis of SMC concept and trendline strategy. Let's see what happens and which opportunity market will give us. When price reach at our level than we look how price behave when it enter our level after confirmation we take buy trade.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analysis and prediction.
#XAUUSD 1H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
GBPJPY FORECASTIn this analyze we are focusing on 30M time frame chart for GBP/JPY. On the basis of support and resistance along with price action and liquidity concept. So we will wait for price when price enter into our zone than after any bullish confirmation we will take our long position trade. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analysis or prediction.
#GBPJPY 30M Technical Analyze Expected Move.
2024-11-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Lower lows and lower highs but a nasty reversal from 18869. The buying was strong but still not good enough for the bulls to take control again. Bears are showing decent selling pressure but getting nowhere. I do think market wants to test higher tomorrow. 19250 is the first target, followed by 19300 and 19350. If 19200 turned resistance and bulls show weakness again, bears might do a real one and get to 18500. There is absolutely no more support until 18500 for the bulls.
comment: tl;dr covered most of it. We closed in the middle of the current range, which is as neutral as it gets. I still favor the bulls but I was also wrong about the two previous sell offs and new lows, so maybe take my bias lightly. Market is in balance around 19150 and we have clear support and resistance for a week, despite the marginally lower lows. 18900 - 19330 is the range, play it until we have a 1h close above or below.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18800 - 19700
bull case: Bulls need some follow through badly. 19250 and then 19300. If they break above 19360 tomorrow, we print 300 points higher.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Below 19100 bears take control again and I think the market can only do one thing so many times until one side gives up big time. If bears manage to print another low below 18869, we go down hard to 18500 or lower. Bears want to keep this below 19200.
Invalidation is above 19350.
short term: Neutral. Max bullish above 19360 and max bearish below 18860.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting the open due to news was amazing. Also buying 18900. Both trades were mostly momentum based but we also had a quadruple top to sell and a double bottom to buy. Hope you took at least one of them.