GBPJPY: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY looks bearish after a test of a key intraday resistance.
The price broken and closed below a support of a rising wedge pattern and we see
a strong bearish pressure after a release of UK Retail Sales data in the morning.
The price may reach 202.6 level soon.
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Priceactiontrader
EURCHF: Your Trading Plan Explained 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Update for EURCHF.
Similarly to AUDCHF, we spotted earlier a confirmed structure violation.
To buy with intraday confirmation, watch a horizontal range on a 4H.
Its bullish breakout - 4H candle close above 0.9512 will give you a strong buying signal.
A bullish continuation will be expected to 0.9535 level then.
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GBPJPY: Important Decision Ahead 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY is currently consolidating on a key horizontal resistance.
I see a tiny horizontal range on a 4H time frame.
It feels like the price may drop from that structure.
Our confirmation will be a breakout of the support of the range.
4H candle close below 188.24 will be your bearish signal.
A bearish continuation will be anticipated then at least to 187.75.
Alternatively, remember that a bullish breakout of the underlined blue resistance can be a strong bullish signal.
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GBPCAD: Your Trading Plan Explained 🇬🇧🇨🇦
GBPCAD is testing a solid rising trend line on a daily.
Probabilities are high that we will see a bullish reaction to that.
Your bullish confirmation will be a bullish breakout of a neckline of a horizontal range
on an hourly time frame.
Hourly candle close above 1.7105 will confirm a violation.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated to 1.713.
If the price sets a new lower low lower close, a setup will become invalid.
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Best Trading Confirmation. Learn 95% Accurate Entry Signal
I have analyzed 1300 forecasts and signals that I shared on TradingView last year and found 95% accurate trading confirmation.
In this article, we will discuss multiple types of confirmations and their winning rate on Forex, Gold, Indexes, Crypto & Commodities.
First, let me introduce you to the types of analysis that I provided.
1 - Structure based forecast
I have shared more than 55 trading setup with key levels analysis:
Where the price is approaching a key daily horizontal support and resistance.
Here is the example of such a post.
Test of a key horizontal or vertical support/resistance turned out to be a poor trading signal.
Total accuracy of structure based forecasts is 38% .
Please, note that if we consider the market trend in our calculations,
the trend-following structure based setup will be 42% accurate, while a performance of a counter trend setup drops to 35%
2 - Structure breakout based forecast
I analyzed and posted 73 posts with a key structure breakout as a confirmation on a daily.
Above is the example of a such a forecast.
Key levels breakout turned out to be a strong bullish or bearish confirmation with 59% accuracy.
Trend direction did not affect the efficiency of a key structure breakout that much, with a 60% accuracy of a trend following setup versus 57% of counter trend.
3 - Structure based forecast with a single intraday confirmation
I shared more than 500 setups with a test of a key structure on a daily and a single price action based bullish or bearish confirmation on a 4h/1h time frame.
My intraday confirmation is a formation of a price action pattern with a consequent breakout of its neckline/trend line in the projected direction.
Please, check the example of such a signal.
Just a single intraday confirmation dramatically increases the accuracy of a structure based setup.
Average winning rate is 66%.
4 - Structure based forecast with multiple intraday confirmations
I spotted and posted 200+ forecasts with a test of a key structure on a daily and multiple price action based bullish or bearish confirmations on a 4h/1h time frame.
Multiple confirmations imply the formation of multiple price action patterns on 4/1h t.f.
Here is the example of such a setup on EURGBP.
Two or more confirmations on a key structure increase the average winning rate to 72%.
Among multiple confirmations, I found a 95% accurate bearish signal:
The market should be in a bearish trend.
The price should test a key daily structure resistance.
The market should form a rising wedge pattern on a 4h/1h time frames and the highs of the wedge should strictly test the key structure and should not violate them.
After a test of structure, the price should form a bearish price action pattern on the highs of the wedge.
Above is a setup with the best trading confirmation.
A bearish breakout of the neckline of the pattern and a support of the wedge was a 95% accurate trading signal this year.
Of course, there are various confirmations, depending on a trading style. The ones that I shared with you are structure/price action based.
And I am truly impressed by their accuracy.
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AUDCHF: Waiting For The Next Move 🇦🇺🇨🇭
AUDCHF is trading within a narrow horizontal range,
after a formation of a strong bearish impulse.
I believe that selling volumes are currently accumulating.
Our trigger to short will be a bearish breakout of the support of the range.
4H candle close below 0.5675 will confirm the violation.
A bearish continuation will be anticipated at least to 0.5645
Alternatively, remember, that a bullish breakout of the range will most likely push the prices higher.
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NZDJPY: Top-Down Analysis & Trading Plan 🇳🇿🇯🇵
NZDJPY broke and closed above a key daily structure resistance yesterday.
The broken structure turned into support.
After a violation, the pair became overbought and we see a correctional movement at the moment.
The price is steadily falling within a bullish flag pattern.
Your bullish confirmation will be a breakout of the flag's resistance.
Let the candle close above that, that will indicate the strength of the buyers.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated at least to 90.9 level then.
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CADJPY: Is That a Bearish Reversal?! 🇨🇦🇯🇵
CADJPY reached a key horizontal resistance.
The price nicely reacted to that, forming a double top formation on a 4h time frame
and breaking a support line of an expanding wedge pattern.
I anticipate a retracement at least to 106.45
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EURCHF: Is That a Bullish Confirmation?! 🇪🇺🇨🇭
In comparison to USDCHF, EURCHF looks bullish to me.
The price is trading within a wide horizontal range on a 4H.
Testing its support, the pair formed a tiny cup & handle pattern
and violated its neckline.
I believe that the market will go to the resistance of the range - 0.9678
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Learn What is PULLBACK and WHY It is Important For TRADING
In the today's post, we will discuss the essential element of price action trading - a pullback.
There are two types of a price action leg of a move: impulse leg and pullback.
Impulse leg is a strong bullish/bearish movement that determines the market sentiment and trend.
While a pullback is the movement WITHIN the impulse.
The impulse leg has the level of its high and the level of its low.
If the impulse leg is bearish, a pullback initiates from its low and should complete strictly BELOW its high.
If the impulse leg is bullish, a pullback movement starts from its high and should end ABOVE its low.
Simply put, a pullback is a correctional movement within the impulse.
It occurs when the market becomes overbought/oversold after a strong movement in a bullish/bearish trend.
Here is the example of pullback on EURJPY pair.
The market is trading in a strong bullish trend. After a completion of each bullish impulse, the market retraces and completes the correctional movements strictly within the ranges of the impulses.
Here are 3 main reasons why pullbacks are important:
1. Trend confirmation
If the price keeps forming pullbacks after bullish impulses, it confirms that the market is in a bullish bearish trend.
While, a formation of pullbacks after bearish legs confirms that the market is trading in a downtrend.
Here is the example how bearish impulses and pullbacks confirm a healthy bearish trend on WTI Crude Oil.
2. Entry points
Pullbacks provide safe entry points for perfect trend-following opportunities.
Traders can look for pullbacks to key support/resistances, trend lines, moving averages or fibonacci levels, etc. for shorting/buying the market.
Take a look how a simple rising trend line could be applied for trend-following trading on EURNZD.
3. Risk management
By waiting for a pullback, traders can get better reward to risk ratio for their trades as they can set tighter stop loss and bigger take profit.
Take a look at these 2 trades on Bitcoin. On the left, a trader took a trade immediately after a breakout, while on the right, one opened a trade on a pullback.
Patience gave a pullback trader much better reward to risk ration with the same target and take profit level as a breakout trader.
Pullback is a temporary correction that often occurs after a significant movement. Remember that pullbacks do not guarantee the trend continuation and can easily turn into reversal moves. However, a combination of pullback and other technical tools and techniques can provide great trading opportunities.
Please, let me know if you have any questions! Also, please, support this post with like and comment! Thank you for reading!
USDCAD: Intraday Bearish Outlook Explained 🇺🇸🇨🇦
USDCAD is trading in a falling parallel channel on an hourly time frame.
I also spotted a descending triangle formation within.
The violation of a horizontal neckline of a triangle is a strong intraday bearish confirmation.
The price will most likely keep falling.
Goals: 1.3630 / 1.3615
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AUDCAD: Bullish Signals Ahead of Fundamentals 🇦🇺🇨🇦
AUDCAD nicely respected a 4h confluence zone
based on a horizontal intraday support and 0.5 retracement of the last bullish impulse.
The price formed a double bottom formation on an hourly time frame
and broke its neckline to the upside.
We can expect a bullish continuation now.
Goals: 0.888 / 0.890
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NZDUSD: The Selloff Will Continue 🇳🇿🇺🇸
NZDUSD is trading in a long term bearish trend.
After a consolidating within a wide horizontal range on a daily,
the price violated its support.
We see a positive bearish reaction to that after its retest.
I believe that the pair will go lower.
Next support: 0.576
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AUDCHF: Swing Short Explained 🇦🇺🇨🇭
On the today's live stream, we discussed AUDCHF.
The market is trading in a long term bearish trend.
In the middle of August, the market started a correctional movement
within a bearish flag pattern.
After the price reached the confluence zone between a horizontal resistance
and a falling trend line, the market dropped and violated a support line of the flag.
It will most likely push the prices lower to 0.5626 - current low.
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🔴 MATIC Hello Dear friends
The price chart on the daily time is below a downward trend line and so far this trend line has been preserved.
The indicator from RSI has issued a negative divergence on the four-hour time frame.
And as we can see, the resistance areas are not fully consumed. But we lost support areas in almost every corrective move.
Currently, it seems that the possibility of forming a corrective trend is much higher and the possibility of breaking the downward trend line from this range with this movement momentum is very weak.
What do you think?