FINNIFTY Expiry Day Trade Setup (23-May-2023)This will be my personal trade Setup, This is not an advice of any kind to trade for anyone.
Price is moving in Triangle Pattern will Break of this can give good trade setup, will follow these points:
1.) If opens flat between this triangle then will wait for price to break this pattern as buying PE near upper triangle trend line resistance for target of lower triangle trendline will be slow and there will be theta decay which will just eat premium.
2.) If opens gap up will look for nearby resistance levels. CPR Levels to be in a trade.
3.) Same for Gap down opening only will if it sustain support or if it rejects it.
4.) As it is expiry day so there will be volatility and if setup isn't good due to theta decay it will only eat premiums. Also if i place any trade in FINFIFTY i will be sure to book profits as soon as possible. and will try to look for 5 minute chart to enter a position and 1 minute chart to close my position.
Hit like to keep me motivated for keeping my trading journal. also one can comment how i can make it better or any improvements i can make in my trading setups.
Priceactiontrading
USDJPY returns to its proving groundToday's focus USDJPY
Pattern – Resistance test.
Possible targets – 138.50 (Upside) 136.30 (Downside)
Support –
Resistance – 137.75
Here we are again back at the 137.75 area that has stopped USDJPY rallies since it developed around December 2022. This is the fifth rally from buyers that has tested this area. Will we finally see a break of this level this time around, or will we see sellers continue to hold firm?
In our opinion, a lot will come down to yen strength as it was driving the run. The JPN225 has also been staring, hitting levels close to its 2021 high.
If we see a small retreat, that's not a bad thing, but we want to see a quick HL and new test of resistance to show buyers hold momentum. A move back below 136.30 or a new LH followed by a new move lower below resistance will be a worry around buyer strength.
What do you think? Will we see a break of this level today or during the rest of the week?
Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
AUDCAD: What a Pattern! 🇦🇺🇨🇦
Update for my yesterday's post for AUDCAD.
The pair retested the broken neckline of a triangle on a daily.
And you know what. Retesting that, it formed the same tiny little triangle on 1H time frame and broke its neckline as well.
It gives a strong intraday confirmation.
The pair will most likely keep falling to 0.8977
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US100 Index (NASDAQ): Classic Trend-Following Bullish Setup
US100 Index broke and close above a key daily resistance last week.
Retesting the broken structure, the market formed a double bottom formation
and violated its neckline.
I will expect a bullish movement now at least to 13420
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AUDCHF: Time to Fall 🇦🇺🇨🇭
AUDCHF is trading in a bearish trend.
After the price set a new lower low, it started a correctional movement.
The pair reached a major falling trend line this week.
The market was stuck on that for a couple of days and formed a horizontal range on 4H.
Its support was broken yesterday.
It will most likely trigger a bearish trend continuation.
Goals will be 0.5935 / 0.588
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S&P500 Index (SPY) Pullback From Key Level
S&P500 Index reached a key horizontal support.
The price formed a double bottom, approaching that,
and successfully broke the neckline.
I expect a pullback at least to 4100 with a potential continuation to 4130.
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EURNZD: Bullish Move From Key Level 🇪🇺🇳🇿
EURNZD reached a key level.
The price was steadily falling within a channel.
After the test of structure, the resistance of the channel was broken,
a double bottom formation was formed then.
I expect a pullback.
Goals: 1.783 / 1.793
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AUDJPY Bullish Falling Wedge BreakoutWhen looking at the times frames higher than the daily timer we see the pair remains bullish despite this pullback, hence we are only looking for
buying opportunities at the moment.
We have listed the confluence we are in line with our current buying setup as follows:
Key level breakout.
Change in market structure from bullish to bearish.
Trendline breakout.
Falling wedge breakout.
EURGBP: Waiting For Breakout 🇪🇺🇬🇧
I spotted an ascending triangle formation on EURGBP on a daily time frame.
The market is currently stuck between its horizontal neckline and a rising trend line.
Bullish breakout of a trend line (daily candle close) will be a strong bullish signal.
A bullish continuation will be expected to 0.892 level then.
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GBPCAD: Cup & Handle Pattern 🇬🇧🇨🇦
Analyzing a price action on GBPCAD on a daily time frame,
I spotted a perfect example of a Cup & Handle pattern.
The price has already broken and closed above a neckline, confirming the strength of bulls.
I expect a bullish continuation to 1.707 / 1.724
For entries, consider the occasional retest of a broken neckline.
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EURUSD: Bullish Outlook Explained 🇪🇺🇺🇸
I spotted a classic bullish accumulation pattern on EURUSD on 4H time frame.
The price formed and ascending triangle formation and violated its neckline.
The broken neckline and a trend line of a triangle compose a contracting demand zone now.
I will expect a bullish movement from that to 1.104 / 1.1068
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What is Higher High, Higher Low, Lower Low, Lower High
In this educational article, we will discuss the foundation of price action analysis: the concepts of highs and lows.
In order to grasp that concept, you should learn to perceive the price chart as the sequence of zigzags.
Depending on the direction of the market and the shape of these zigzags, its peaks will be called differently. There are 6 types of them that you should learn to recognize.
1️⃣ Equal Highs (EH).
The peaks of bullish moves will be called equal highs, if they perfectly respect the same level (resistance), retracing from that and not managing to break above.
2️⃣ Equal Lows (EL).
The peaks of bearish moves will be called equal lows, if they perfectly respect the same level (support), bouncing from that and not managing to break below.
3️⃣ Higher High (HH).
The peak of a bullish move will be called Higher High, if the price manages to violate the previous high after a retracement.
4️⃣ Lower Low (LL).
The peak of a bearish move will be called Lower Low, if the price manages to violate the previous low after a pullback.
5️⃣ Higher Low (HL).
The peak of a bearish move will be called Higher Low if, after a retracement from the high, the price manages to set a low that is higher than the previous low.
6️⃣ Lower High (LH).
The peak of a bullish movement will be called Lower High if, after a pullback from the low, the price sets a high that is lower than the previous high.
Why these terms are so important?
Because, firstly, you can apply them to objectively identify the market trend.
Secondly, all the price action patterns are based on a combination of these highs and lows.
You should learn these terms by heart, and you should learn to perceive the price chart as the sequence of zigzags, with a strict designation of each peak.
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AUDCAD: Bullish Reversal Confirmed?! 🇦🇺🇨🇦
AUDCAD reached a very important zone of confluence this week:
we see a perfect match between a key horizontal daily support and 618 retracement of the major bullish impulse.
The price formed a double bottom pattern on that and violated its neckline.
It looks like the market may go higher.
Goals: 0.9118 / 0.92
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CADJPY: Bearish Move From Key Level 🇨🇦🇯🇵
CADJPY reached a key horizontal daily resistance this week.
Analyzing the reaction of the price to that on intraday time frames,
I spotted a head & shoulders pattern and a rising channel.
The price manage to break both the neckline of h&s and a support line of the channel.
It will most likely trigger a bearish continuation.
Goals will be: 99.59 / 99.1
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Learn Top 4 Price Action Pattern to Trade Reversals
Hey traders,
In this article, I will share with you the list of 4 best reversal price action patterns.
📍Ascending & Descending Triangles
The main element of the ascending triangle as the REVERSAL pattern is the BEARISH impulse leg, preceding the formation of the pattern.
The pattern consist of 2 main elements:
a horizontal neckline based on the equal highs,
a rising trend line based on the higher lows.
❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and candle close above.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying at least below the level of the last higher low.
🎯Take profit is the next historical resistance.
——————
📍The main element of the descending triangle formation as the reversal pattern is the BULLISH leg, preceding the formation of the pattern.
The pattern consist of 2 main elements:
a horizontal neckline based on the equal lows,
a falling trend line based on the lower highs.
❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and candle close below.
📉The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying at least above the level of the last lower high.
🎯Take profit is the next historical support.
📍Rising & Falling Wedges
What makes a rising wedge pattern a reversal pattern?
Before the formation of the pattern, the price should form a strong bullish impulse and trade in a bullish trend.
The pattern consists of 2 contracting, rising trend lines based on the higher highs and higher lows.
❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a support of the pattern and candle close below.
📉The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying above the high of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the closest horizontal support.
——————
What makes a falling wedge pattern a reversal pattern?
Before the formation of the pattern, the price should form a strong bearish impulse and trade in a bearish trend.
The pattern consist of 2 contracting falling trend lines based on the lower lows and lower highs.
❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a resistance of the pattern and candle close above.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying below the low of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the closest horizontal resistance.
📍Double Top & Bottom
Double bottom pattern usually forms at the end of a bearish trend.
After a strong bearish impulse, the price retraces, sets a lower high and retests the current low.
Instead of going lower, the price retraces one more time, retests the level of the last lower high and breaks it.
Such a formation confirms a bullish reversal.
❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and a candle close above.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying below the lows of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the closest horizontal resistance.
——————
Double top pattern usually forms at the end of a bullish trend.
After a strong bullish impulse, the price retraces, sets a higher low and retests the current high.
Instead of going higher, however, the price retraces one more time, retests the level of the last higher low and breaks it.
Such a formation confirms a bearish reversal.
❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and a candle close below.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying above the highs of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the closest horizontal support.
📍Head & Shoulders Pattern & Inverted One
Inverted H&S pattern usually forms at the end of a bearish trend.
The price forms a zig-zag movement with 3 main elements:
the left shoulder with a lower low, the head with a new lower low, and the right shoulder with a higher low.
While the price sets multiple lows, it keeps setting the equal highs, composing a so-called horizontal neckline.
A bullish reversal becomes confirmed once the price breaks and closes above the neckline.
❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and a candle close above.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying below the lows of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the closest horizontal resistance.
——————
Head & Shoulders pattern usually forms at the end of a bullish trend.
The price forms a zig-zag movement with 3 main elements:
the left shoulder with a higher high, the head with a new higher high, and the right shoulder with a lower high.
While the price sets multiple highs, it keeps setting the equal lows, composing a so-called horizontal neckline.
A bearish reversal becomes confirmed once the price breaks and closes below the neckline.
❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and a candle close below.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying above the highs of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the closest horizontal support.
In order to increase the accuracy of trading these patterns, I would recommend trading them only if they are formed on key levels:
Bearish patterns on key resistances and bullish patterns on key supports.
Also, higher is the time frame where you spotted the patterns, higher is the chance that it will give a valid reversal signal.
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EURCHF: Pullback From Key Level 🇪🇺🇨🇭
EURCHF is testing a key daily structure support.
Analyzing the 4H time frame, I spotted a horizontal intraday range.
Its lower boundary matches perfectly with the underlined daily structure.
I am expecting a pullback at least to the upper boundary of the range.
Goal - 0.9883
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USDJPY BEAR SWING RESUMEEOur USDJPY bear swing paused about 300 pips ago and created a temporary bottom from which we took short term buys from
After a nice run of 200+ PIPS we are EXIT the shorts. Now USDJPY should resume its bear swing on the route to new lows. From a technical aspect this retracement has come up to retest the overall trend at the 38 Fib level. Normally I would be expecting a further correction, up to the 50 area but under these economic conditions I expect USDJPY to resume its bear trend at a much more aggresive rate than most trends. Right now the "Carry Trade" is about to work against the dollar, as outflows continue to pull USDJPY down. Make no mistake there is a LOOONG way for this pair to fall still.
We are emtering longs with stop losses above the recent "Lower high"
If for some reason the bullish momentum were to resume, I would still be looking to SELL USDJPY around the 50 fib or 134 area.
Theres not much to update on the fundamentals. The US economy is still heading towards recession faster than the FED RESERVE can control. Yen has a long way to go before it becomes "overvalued" in this environment currently. USDJPY sells will always be the safer option for the near term.