BEWARE IMPORTANT COPPER PRICE LEVEL - HG1! - COPPER - DAILYThank you for your likes and comments! Really appreciated! This is an idea about Copper price, not a financial advice.
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The HG1! Copper Futures have been continuously rising... almost a year.
We realized that summer is coming and that this market have been beating all the selling power trying to bring it down of slower it>
How long is it going to last?
The blue lines represent the channel that the price is following. Being at the top of this channel and seeing a possible strong signal of a pullback, the probability of seeing the market profile change has risen.
The volume involved where huge but will it again beat it and keep going up further?
The next step down is probably at the dotted red horizontal line. Some other "super volumes" interventions happened in that past at that price level.
For a day traders, this is probably something to keep an eye on> For a longer term trader, lowering the exposition is probably smart at this price level. Reentering step by step after this level is passed or when the deep happens.
Priceleveltrading
Daily Oscillators are now short with the 4hour on SPX & ES1!Shown is the 4hr ES futures chart for the S&P 500, along with the "Level Break" & "Fisher Transform" studies.
Notice how you can see clear areas of previous resistance or support and use them to weigh in your R:R structure.
The short target of the next known support level is clearly shown in the low 3300's.
Now, shorts can keep good a risk to reward ratio, also known as payoff ratio, by shorting in the red oval area with the stop at a previous support (to become new resistance in mid 3355 area).
As always, shorts are quicker trades than longs, and especially on this time scale. So, be sure to lock in profits and don't let winners turn to losers!
Note that the Fisher Transform on the 4hr is also a tell that the short could be done. Look at the green cloud in pic at bottom, eyes peeled here! I should also note that I don't take these strategy trades verbatim, they are only a guide.
Also, there is a great play for the bounce if you are looking to get in this longer term bull market at a decent price, look for the low 3300's. The market hasn't been offering good pullbacks to buy, so take each pullback for the investment portfolio as best you can, and take target prices for your investments to put that $ in things that have room to run.
Sidenote, I will be releasing some new scripts for TradingView this week! They will be more of a scalping/daytrader thing, looking forward to conversing about them.
~B3 d^.^b
OKTA bullish momentum trade into earningsOKTA's trend is bullish and has been for quite sometime. OKTA grew its revenue by 60% last year (2018). That’s a head and shoulders above most loss-making companies, especially in the cloud space and SSO. And the share price has responded, gaining 126% in the last 12 months. OKTA has reacted bullish more than bearish on earnings historically.
Currently the market is holding a nice tight uptrend after making successive new ATHs. Based on the price action the last few weeks and few days, it appears OKTA would like to continue higher in the low to mid $90 region either before or post ER.
This is a high risk setup. However, price is making higher hows and higher lows as you would like to see in a bullish trade.
The trade is entering May $80 calls at $12.40 (stop-limit) with a stop loss of $10.40. Max loss of $200 per contract. The plan is to take profit before the ER if price reaches $92-$93 otherwise will considering holding over ER for the upper 1.618 fib target and higher. But first let's clear $88 ahead of earnings.
Let's see what happens this week :-).
NIO coiled to test $12+ again?In the final week of January, NIO (NIO) announced the offering of $650 million convertible five-year bond to raise funds and utilize the funds “to pay the costs of the capped call transactions.” The bond offering closed on February 4. Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) purchased $30 million worth of its proposed offering, while Hillhouse Capital Management purchased $5 million of its proposed offering. Existing large investors’ continued confidence in NIO drove its stock higher in the next few sessions.
Key factors in February that caused NIO to rise over 20% include:
On February 20, NIO pleased investors by stating that it has been ranked fifth on Fast Company’s list of China’s most innovative companies for 2019.
On February 24, CBS broadcasted an interview with William Li—NIO’s founder and CEO. During the interview, Li tried to project NIO as a lifestyle company—different from Tesla (TSLA). These factors likely boosted investors’ sentiments in last month.
TSLA 's CEO, Elon Musk, was held in contempt of court for his Twitter behavior and continues to put the company in hot water with the SEC: www.cnn.com
Productive USA-China talks to reach a trade deal.
With that said, I believe the risk:reward is there on either April $8 or $10 calls to hold over earnings for possible move back up towards the all-time high. Max risk will be defined ahead of times so no stop loss will be needed.
We will float an order out there for April $10 calls at $1. IF it does not fill by market close tomorrow, I will adjust the order to get filled ahead of earnings.
CGC at a resistance and weekly looks like a bull flagGoing to setup a trade using April $47.5 calls stop-limit $4.25 (tweezer top at $4.20 on the options) with a $1 stop. Risking $100 per contract.
Upper targets low to mid $50 range. Only concern is that the gap from the last two days has no been filled, but let's see if the sellers jumping on at this resistance get squeezed up.
Cheers!
AMZN ready to push back towards $1700 and beyondWhile the SPY is fighting $280 resistance, AMZN has been making higher lows inside its major down channel. A break towards 1672 then 1723 (5% move from the closing price of today and the 200 day sma) looks to be in the cards as long as the overall market can break through 2800 on ES and hold. I also like that the daily has closed well above the daily 9 day exponential moving average.
A bigger move in the market place is definitely in the cards in the next 2-3 days with the USA-China trade agreement extended deadline from this Friday, March 1. Also Trump meeting with North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, to discuss denuclearization. A USA-China trade deal, or even a peace agreement with North Korea could launch this market much higher.
Purchased April $1640 calls with a $10 stop based on the weekly and daily price action. Risking $1k (per contract) of house money to make $5k (per contract)+.
Let's see what happens in the next few days :-).
As always let price discovery be your guide.
ABC is at a strong downtrend line resistanceA lot of volume came in on Friday closing as a doji at major resistance. Shorts are most likely hopping on board here. Going down to the 4H you can see there is an ascending triangle.
My plan is to enter above February 7th's high with March $85 calls. Should be a strong momentum move to the upside if volume moves in on a breakout of the downtrend line.
Let's see what she does this week :-).
AAPL getting ready to move to the upsideDescending triangle on AAPL 's faster timeframes. Looking to take the break of $172 with 2:1 target at 178 then second target of $185ish or upper downtrend line.
Setting up an options trade with April $165 calls stop limit entry at $10.85. Stop will be at $9 (or $8.85 to make the calculation easier for more contracts/different risk).
SHAK at strong resistance getting ready to breakout?!SHAK One of my favorite setups is to take a stock long at the break of a resistance or break of support to catch the momentum of the move. Earnings are about 2 weeks out too so SHAK may rise into the ER like most stocks do.
MY setup is taking the break of Thursday's candle with March $50 calls. Keeping a tight stop in case it's a failure on the break up.
Target 1 is the 200 day sma and target 2 will be around the $60. Let's see what she does this week!
Once filled will give the trade 3-5 days to see how the momentum is.
As always let price discovery be your guide :-).
SQ coiled ready to pop to $80+ ahead of earningsSQ at a major trendline resistance area from the ATH. People jumped on board short yesterday as you can see the increase in volume and a bearish looking candle.
My plan is take the break of that bearish candle of yesterday with a target of $86 area with March $75 calls stoplimit $5.70 with a stop at $4.50-.60. Not risking more than $250.
As always let price discovery be your guide :-).
Looking at taking below 2722.25 short based on 30min candleCurrently testing the near term uptrend with an indecision candle on the daily again. We failed to break above 38 on three attempts. The market was muted to slightly down with JPow's speech in D.C. 2722 area is solid support and I like the buying that came in just above there. However if price can't clear 2726 and stay above 2728, most likely will continue down breaking the uptrend line.
Let's see what she does. As always let price discovery be your guide :-)!
My forecast on CL this weekFinally a daily close above 54.75 for the bulls. Looking for a retest of this area to hold and continue the trend up. As long as the lower trendline and 18 day sma hold, we most likely grind higher to the 57.44 target I have then ~60. Losing the 54.75 on a closing basis would put selling pressure on oil and most likely test the 53 area.
As always let price discovery be your guide :-).
My forecast for RTY this weekTrend is up still until we lost that lower trend line. We are more than 50% back from the ATH and the sell off reversal area. Love that little doji that formed on Friday. We most likely break in the direction of the high or low with strength. My upper target on RTY is 1530.7 then 1560 area.
Lower areas of support 1498-1500, lower 1478-80, and 1465 (and 18 day sma).
I am expecting a more significant pull back in the next few weeks. However always let price discovery be your guide. Trade the trend until it fails.
Cheers! :-)
Forecast for YM this weekJust like ES1! and NQ1!, the trend is bullish. However we are at some resistance on the daily. There should be a lot of support at 24,860-24,900. Below there 24,750 has to hold or we will sell quite a bit.
Testing the 200 day sma right now and the downtrend line from the ATH. We are currently more than 2/3 back from the reversal in December and the ATH. This area should be support as I mentioned above. If she continues higher, looking for a target of 25,200ish.
I expect a bigger pullback coming in the next few weeks.
As always let price discovery be your guide :-).
Forecast for NQ this weekThe trend looks very bullish clearing and holding above the 6845 level that I covered in my YouTube Video here: youtu.be . The 18 day sma is above the 50 day sma, signaling the trend is up.
I'm expecting a push towards the 7000 level (2/3 back from the ATH and reversal from the sell off) this week as long as we hold the 6775-6800 area. Might overshoot to the 200 day sma which is ~7050.
Of course always let price discovery be your guide :-).
Will ES test its daily 200 day sma this week?We are testing 2712.25, which is a strong pivot (Resistance) on the daily. Nice little doji forming on Friday. I'm looking for a continuation up to test the 200 day sma around 2745 with as high as 2760s before a bigger pullback as long as 2716 is taken out with strength.
Of course if we lose the low of Friday and ultimately 2690, we could test lower off the trendline.
As always let price discovery be your guide :-).
Looking for a retest on CGC to go longDue to the upgrade on CGC from $40 to $60 PT here: www.marketwatch.com , the stock gapped above the November 7, 2018 candle. Might not get filled on this one and that's okay, but looking for a retest of that area with a wide $7 stop to buy some shares.
If this doesn't fill, I will see how the price action behaves and potentially enter on a retest of $48.19 once the share price goes a bit higher.
Let's see what happens :).
CLDR looks good to hit $15 per share after receiving an upgradeLooking to get into Feb $12.5 calls at $1.00 so that the trade is absolute zero trade meaning, no stop is needed. Just let the trade play out. CLDR was moving a bit after hours on Friday so might gap up tomorrow. Let's see if she fills our order. IF not, we find the next trade.
Target is ~$15 first.