Who is buying this? I do not trade stocks because they do not live in the real world. They live in lala land where PE no longer matters. Reality has taken a back seat to FED jawboning and flagrantly cooked up jobs numbers. That being said, there are some opportunities that are too tempting to pass up!
I do not even know where to start...
This one really smells... from insiders dumping to the basic fundamentals around Airbnb. Airbnb has no moat! Assigning the majority of the vacation rental market to its market cap is lunacy. Competitors have already begun to take back market share offering the same exact listings with more competitive fee structures.
Personally as a former Super host and and avid traveller I can state first hand that my experiences with Airbnb have gone from bad to worse. The percentage fees they charge both the host and the guest are outrageous when you consider what you actually receive from the platform... Nothing!
In addition to user experience, the general view on STRs has shifted. This has created a difficult landscape for hosts and the platform as governments have regulated and outright banned the platform.
Fundamentals of the business aside, the macro back drop for travel are bleak. The S&P is at all time highs but if you pop the hood the reality of the real economy is bleak. Savings are almost at record lows while credit card debt is at record highs. I can go on....
Personally, I am salivating at the prospect that some poor soul will continue to buy Airbnb and let me borrow their shares at the 140 level.
If you are a believer in a "soft landing " I would approach this as a pair trade
Historically 50 basis point cuts are BEARISH. They are a sign of panic by the fed. If the US does enter a recession travel will be one of the hardest hit sectors.
$140-$155 is the zone in which I will build my short position.
