BTC & ETH bottom priceI have an idea for ETH & BTC.
Simple look back to 2020-02-24. ETH down 70% before jumping.
Same with BTC, it divided 2.5 times from local top 10K to 3K8 (around 63%)
From CoinGlass check the liquidation heat map for ETH and BTC.
With current situation, if BTC and ETH price turn down 63% for BTC and 70% for ETH then bottom price will be around 25K for BTC, and 1300 for ETH.
And go up crazy after that.
Pricemovement
Tesla's Shocking Plunge: Is the Bubble Finally Bursting?This is a Walk through of How i Took Advantage of the Giant Move on TSLA
Current Price Action:
The current price is $240.89, reflecting a decrease of $7.20 (or 2.90%).
Liquidity Zones (LQZ) / Take Profit (TP) Levels:
There are two marked LQZ/TP levels:
LQZ/TP 1 at $263.53
LQZ/TP 2 at $270.21
Support and Resistance:
Multiple dashed lines indicate key support and resistance levels:
$138.36, $142.18, $145.51 (support zones)
$159.45, $168.98, $173.21, $175.92 (support/resistance zones)
$260.27 (resistance)
$300.01 (resistance)
Trend Lines:
A downward-sloping trend line (dashed blue) from previous highs suggests a long-term bearish trend.
Price recently broke above this trend line, indicating a potential change in trend or a strong bullish move.
Candlestick Patterns:
Recent candlesticks show a strong upward move followed by a pullback, which is typical after a strong rally.
Volume:
Volume is indicated, with the latest volume bar showing 6.468 million shares traded.
Polka(DOT). Will it Survive?DOT is a long way from its high of $55, back in 2021. And now, currently, price has been struggling to push higher. With the thought the BTC ETFs being a game changer along with the BTC halving, there was the anticipation that Crypto would sky rocket. But this hasn't been the case. With all other coins getting hit by the current environment Crypto is facing, it stands that DOT is no exception. On the daily chart, DOT price is showing a head and shoulders pattern that could spell a push lower to the $5 lvl and maybe even to the $3.50. Since the FED interest rates seem to be the catalyst for the direction of crypto price so far, any data pointing at FED officials wanting to hold rates for longer (being hawkish) will continue to put pressure on Crypto's price.
Well with this said, how is Polkadot going to survive? There is things going for it that can get it through this rough patch:
-There are around 66 interoperability Cryptos and in that sector, DOT is the #1 coin, followed by Chainlink(LINK) and Cosmos(ATOM). DOT boasts close to a $8.5 billion market cap and LINK close to a $8.4 billion market cap (not too far behind), respectively.
-Amongst all the other Cryptos out there, it sits at #14 out of 10,127.
-Staking is currently at 11.78%, which has risen from 2023 when staking was around 9%, which if held for a year would be more then what some hedge funds can make. So not too bad.
-While not as much PR as some of the more prominent coins out there, it does have PR coming out which shows that it is still relevant
What do I think? I think DOT will survive and will likely drop which would be a buying opportunity. The Crypto Market as a whole is taking a drip (sitting at around 2.37 trillion currently, hitting a high this year in March of around 2.64 Trillion, and all time high of around 2.8 trillion back in 2021) and if price does continue to drop, it may test the support around 2.33 trillion. But majority of cryptos are taking a hit and as catalyst start popping up in favor of crypto, it is likely that DOT will join in this.
Green Arrow. Red Arrow. Which Will It Be?As I see it we now have two more likely options regarding price trajectory for Bitcoin.
Let's first review what has occurred in the past few days. After 9 hits on our multi-year support, we finally broke WITH confirmation. That last part was important. I had stated that if we break and confirm, our first target down would become that first purple ascending trend line. Nailed it! Couldn't have been more precise. Yesterday, I then stated we should bounce and hit our heads on that 59.3k level. Boom. Done. Now, as I see it, Bitcoin has two most probable options to follow in terms of price. These options are represented by the green arrow and the red arrow.
If we break back above that 59.3k level, the green arrow is in play and we'll likely travel sideways for a couple of weeks/months. This will be very boring for Bitcoin trades but it could indicate some relief for altcoins. At that point, I would expect quite a few of the best to spring to life and start pumping again.
The red arrow is our other option, and honestly, this is currently the direction I am leaning toward until DXY, VIX, GLD, SPY, and NVDA tell me something different. DXY, VIX, and GLD continuing upwards would push stocks and SPY/NVDA down. BTC would likely follow. And though ALTS remains relatively stable at the moment, a move like this could bury some of the more risky. Keep those stops in place as it could get ugly. Thus far, my thesis on ALTS stands correct and our double-bottom has held and is holding for many. But, if that support breaks, ALTS would be in trouble.
As always, I'll keep you up to date on the altcoin charts (often via the weekend update) here as well.
Also, for my paid subscribers, know that we hit our level down and I have bought more of our best-performing altcoin. Check the trade tracker below to see the details.
[Education] Price Action Movements of BANKNIFTYThis post showing the all possible price action situations occurs in BANKNIFTY since last few days.
1) Uptrend Channel
2) Falling Wedge Pattern
3) Flag Pattern
4) Head and Shoulder Pattern
5) Parallel Channel
6) Rising Wedge Pattern
7) Ascending Triangle Pattern
traders await US CPI on ThursdayGold price remains confined in a narrow range as traders await US CPI on Thursday
10 January 2024
• Gold price extends its consolidative price move above a multi-week low touched on Monday.
•The Fed rate cut uncertainty is holding back traders from placing aggressive directional bets.
• Elevated US bond yields underpin the USD and cap gains ahead of the US CPI on Thursday.
Technical Analysis: Gold price bears await a break below the 50-day SMA support near $2,017 area
From a technical perspective, the multi-week low, around the $2,017 area touched on Monday, which now coincides with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), should protect the immediate downside. A convincing break below could make the gold price vulnerable to accelerate the slide towards the $2,000 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling will expose the December swing low, around the $1,973 region, before the XAU/USD eventually drops to the $1,965-1,963 confluence, comprising the 100- and 200-day SMAs.
On the flip side, the $2,040-2,042 zone might continue to act as an immediate strong barrier, above which the Gold price could aim to retest Friday's swing high, around the $2,064 area. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $2,077 area, which if cleared decisively will negate any near-term negative outlook and set the stage for a move towards reclaiming the $2,100 round figure.
Gold price (XAU/USD) met with some supply following an uptick to the $2,040 area on Tuesday and finally settled with only modest gains on Tuesday. The precious metal continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Wednesday as traders seek more clarity on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut path before placing directional bets. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the release of the latest consumer inflation figures from the United States (US) due on Thursday, which will play a key role in determining the near-term trajectory for the commodity.
Ahead of the key data risk, investors have been scaling back their expectations for a more aggressive policy easing by the Fed in the wake of a robust December US jobs report on Friday, which pointed to a still-resilient labor market. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and acts as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD), capping the non-yielding Gold price. That said, geopolitical risks stemming from the Israel-Hamas war and persistent worries over a slow economic recovery in China – the world's second-largest economy – should lend some support to the safe-haven precious metal.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price struggles for a firm direction amid mixed fundamental cues
• The uncertainty over the timing of when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates holds back traders from placing fresh directional bets around the gold price.
The New York Fed reported on Monday that US consumers' projection of inflation fell to the lowest level in nearly three years in December, raising bets for an imminent shift in the Fed's policy stance.
Meanwhile, the resilient US economy, which is experiencing above-target inflation, gives the US central bank more headroom to keep interest rates higher for longer.
• This allows the yield in the benchmark 10-year US government bond to hold above the 4.0% threshold, which lends support to the US Dollar and caps the yellow metal.
Bearish traders, however, seem reluctant and prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the latest US consumer inflation figures, due for release on Thursday.
Citing a senior US Defense Department official, CNBC reported late Tuesday that Iran-backed Houthi militants launched the largest attack to date on commercial merchant vessels.
A senior People's Bank of China official said this Wednesday that the central bank may use monetary policy tools to provide strong support for reasonable credit growth.
The official added that the PBoC will strengthen its counter-cyclical and cross-cycle policy adjustments to create favorable conditions for the country's economic growth.
• There isn't any relevant market-moving macro data scheduled for release from the US on Wednesday, leaving the XAU/USD at the mercy of the USD price dynamics.
SNXUSDTHello dear friends
✔️ The long-term downtrend line has been broken.
At the same time, we have a positive RSI divergence in the daily time frame.
✔️ The support range ($1,523) is well maintained.
❕ If the resistance range of $3.6, which is a very important area, is completely consumed, the situation will become very attractive for us.
Considering that LL has not been formed on the downward trend, if a higher high is formed in the lower time frame, it can be a short-term confirmation.
What do you think?
GBPUSD Next possible movement.We might see this move on the following days.
From the current price I suggest to wait if the price will bounce on the neckline and minor support, or will go straight to the support. enter on lower time frame, and check if possible bounce to made the triple top, or breakout because of double bottom (enter on retest).
P.S Its my first time doing chart on forex, so any opinions and comments are welcome. Thank you.
EURUSD : Support & Resistance Trading strategyOANDA:EURUSD
Eurusd , Is trading in channel up , After immense bearish downtrend last week market recover 100% , As market is overbought now
Possible market after hitting resistance at 1.0777 will retrace to lower trendline for more bullish momentum
Our target from 1.0777 will be 1.0709 area
if price break down lower trendline than fair chances that we may see 1.0657 mark
❤️ Please, support my work with follow ,share and like, thank you! ❤️
Ways to improve your chart reading Part 1 – VolumeIt is essential to look at volume when analyzing the charts. Volume equates to activity: it is either the number of contracts placed to the market during the duration of the bar (in the case of exchange volume ) or the number of price changes during the duration of the bar (in the case of tick volume)
It shows when and how the professionals (or as they are called in Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis, the smart money) are acting. If the volume is relatively big, the smart money is buying or selling. Low volume means they are not interested.
So volume is one of the tools that not only helps us to understand what is happening on the chart, but also helps traders avoid serious mistakes in determining the further direction of the price movement.
Take a look at the Estee Lauder Companies, Inc (NYSE:EL) stock as an example.
This stock was in a down trend since August 2022. On October 20th 2022 we saw the first significant increase in volume on a down bar (the bar with its close price lower than the close price of the previous bar) followed by another price bar with big volume on the 24th of October and then by the huge volume spike on November 2nd. Professionals were active on those bars and they were buying!
The final confirmation that the stock is ready to move higher came on November 9th when after a few bars of sideways movement a down bar appeared on very low volume. This indicates the absence of professional interest in lower prices. Please note that on this day the trend of the instrument did not change to the up side yet and many traders still expected the down trend to restore.
While we are focusing on high-volume bars here, the example above also shows how low volume, when it appears at specific areas of the chart, can provide a lot of useful information too.
To be continued.
Who is in control??An important element of studying price action is often ignored, even though it is perhaps the most important one - at least for swing traders.
WHO IS IN CONTROL OF THE MARKET AT THIS TIME?
After all we all want to trade in the direction where the strength lies.
In this example of USDJPY, note how large the recent bullish candles are. This shows momentum lies with the bears.
Note also that these large candles close very near to the low of their range. This shows the lack of bulls.
Don't miss the fact that the pullbacks are quite shallow - another pointer.
See on the chart, the difference between the time taken by both sides to attain the same price points.
None of this is pointing to a possible trade right away, but it does help to point you in the direction where you should be looking.
Always use sound money and risk management and stay patient in all your trades.
If you like my analysis, please give it a “thumbs up” and follow me to get even more awesome content.
What do you think about this post? Please comment and share your thoughts!!
FACTORS THAT PUSH THE PRICEHello everybody!
Today I want to discuss with you a serious question - What factors are pushing the price?
As you know, there is fundamental and technical analysis.
Each trader himself gives preference to what to use in the analysis.
And we will try to understand what pushes the price.
NEWS
The first thing that comes to mind is NEWS .
News affects OUR WHOLE LIFE .
The news pushes crowds of people to one point and forces them to flee from another.
News is a strong factor.
If the central bank decides something, it will be in the news and it will definitely push the market.
If the president of the country has decided something, it is shown on the news and it pushes the market.
If a person who decided the fate of an entire industry was fired, it will push the market and the price.
Therefore, it is IMPORTANT to follow the news and, more importantly, correctly interpret the news and be able to predict the future mood and future actions of the crowd based on them.
PATTERNS
All traders see the same chart, but everyone perceives it differently.
There are many reasons for this: someone knows more patterns, someone has more experience, someone understands better than another, someone has better discipline.
And when one or another pattern appears on the chart, people start trading and push the price.
You may have noticed that if no special picture is visible on the market, then the market is sluggish.
As soon as a pattern emerges, movement begins.
People entered the market.
Can we say that patterns move the price?
Or maybe someone is creating patterns on the chart to move the price?
EMOTIONS
We have already touched on this topic above, but it is worth noting separately.
Emotions play an important role in everything.
If the crowd is happy, the market is growing.
The crowd is afraid - the market is falling.
The crowd can be angry at the company or the country, close positions and thereby push the price down because of their bias..
The one who knows how to understand other people's emotions is able to predict the future actions of the crowd and make money on it.
Think about it...
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Classical works on economics teach us that the market is controlled by supply and demand.
more precisely, the difference between supply and demand.
If the demand is large, the price rises, if the demand is small, the price falls.
The logic is simple: if people buy a lot, someone will start raising the price before selling, why not, because people buy.
When people don't want to buy, the one who needs to sell will lower the price to lure the buyer, because you need to sell something.
At the same time, it is important that there should always be both a buyer and a seller, otherwise the price will stand still or move slowly.
When there is both a buyer and a seller on the market and a lot of transactions are made, the price moves quickly, volumes increase, so even strong jumps (GAPS) are possible.
MANIPULATION
Manipulation is the darkest, most hidden action from prying eyes.
No one can say for sure whether it was manipulation or not.
Can someone push the market?
You often observe that the price reaches your stop, after which it immediately goes in the right direction, but without you.
Many traders believe that manipulation can be observed in the market .
Someone thinks that every movement is manipulation.
What do you think?
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
An easy way to lower the risk profile of your stock portfolioThe correlation between Visa and Mastercard creates an interesting investment trick.
I began this analysis not even looking for the correlation between these two companies' stock prices. But rather I was looking for some chart patterns using a stock screener. At the top of the list, these two companies emerged. As usual, I was going to go through the stock charts of all the companies in the list briefly to determine if they hold any chart pattern merit.
However, as I scanned over Visa, and then Mastercard, I noticed they looked extremely similar. Weird. I then opened up Tradingview and put these stocks in. Side by side they look the same.
These two companies have very similar price movements. No surprise, they are very similar companies. They are direct competitors. They are both big players in the global credit services market. Transacting trillions of dollars in total payments volumes per year. They’re both tech companies that connect the consumer and the merchant digitally for transactions. They have been seen as rivals for over a decade now. Neither Visa nor Mastercard are involved in extending credit or issuing cards. They work in a co-branded relationship with the card provider. That's why you will see their logos on your credit card but won’t see a full absolute Mastercard/Visa credit card.
Visa is generally larger in terms of the transaction, purchase volume and cards in circulation. However, Mastercard growth has been picking up and may see a catch-up.
Now let’s get back to the price movement analysis. I have split this up into three time periods and then done a Pearson Correlation Test. The first period is the matched IPO date to the current date. The next is the last 5 years and then the last 2 years.
The reason for the three time periods is simple. I want to do a full IPO to current date analysis to get the full picture and long-term perspective. A 5-year analysis because if you look at the charts above, that’s when the volatility in the stocks picks up. The last 2 years, because if you look again at the charts above, some crazy price movements have been occurring in the last two years that do not follow the past 14-year trend.
The closer to +1, the closer the correlation.
March 2008 - Nov 2022: 0.83
Nov 2017 - Nov 2022: 0.92
Nov 2020 - Nov 2022: 0.90
As you can see from the above stats both of these stocks have a close relationship with each other. A higher correlation in recent years. Of course, correlation doesn’t mean causation. However, the fact that these two companies are very similar and direct competitors means that one could form a reasonable conclusion. Not that one stock is affecting the other price. But rather than investors see these two companies as very similar. Such that when they exit one, they exit the other. Unless there is a big reason not to. But as you can see from the stats above. The stocks have a close correlation over the last 14 years such that even if one says that, let, for example, Visa is going to grow faster than Mastercard, the chances are - Mastercard wouldn’t be far behind.
Henceforth, this leads to an interesting investment tip:
Let’s say you want to diversify your portfolio by gaining some exposure to the credit services industry. Since Visa and Mastercard are the two leading companies, you chose them. However, you only have enough money to invest in one. But you also want to lower the risk profile of your portfolio. Is there a way both can be done?
The answer is yes, since Visa and Mastercard have such a close correlation and are very big established companies they will most likely follow each other in price movement. Also, since they are two different companies, you will be diversifying your investment and will be lowering your risk. So, you divide that last portion of your portfolio into two smaller portions and buy Visa and Mastercard 50:50. This will mean you get the exposure you are after, the returns as well since they have a close correlation, and the risk is lowered since they are two separate companies. Quite a cool trick is not it?
I created three different portfolios. Each beginning with $10,000. I invested the full out in two of them into Visa and Mastercard. The last portfolio had a 50:50 split. I then calculated the standard daily deviation and the annualized standard deviation. Here are the results:
Visa 100%:
Start value: $10,000
End value: $137,295.57
Annualized STD: 29.60%
Mastercard 100%:
Start value: $10,000
End value: $151,466.00
Annualized STD: 32.30%
Visa 50% Mastercard 50%:
Start value: $10,000
End value: $144,380.79
Annualized STD: 29.50%
As you can see from the above stats, once the two stocks have been combined the standard deviation drops by 8.67% and the standard deviation is lower than the two stocks individually. This means the risk is lower. However, yes, the final value isn’t as high as the Mastercard 100% the returns are higher than the sole Visa 100% portfolio by 5.10%. So, in other words, the risk has been lowered than if you had individual portfolios and the returns are higher as well. Of course, the returns aren’t as high as they are in the Mastercard 100% portfolio, but the risk is lower while still ensuring higher returns. This means the Visa 50% Mastercard 50% portfolio provides an effective way to reduce risk while increasing returns.
However, one thing to note is the maximum drawdown was the lowest in the Mastercard 100% portfolio. The second lowest is Visa 50% Mastercard 50%. Highest in Visa 50%. So, ensure that if you are going to follow this strategy, there is more research to be done and it is best worked in a long-term investment strategy possibly combined with dollar cost averaging.
To conclude, if you want to see a higher return while lowering the risk profile of your portfolio. It pays to diversify with similar correlating assets.
ETHUSD PREDICTION AND POSSIBILITY MARCH-APRIL 2022Chart explain the prediction, Price channel with Support n Resistance is a base logic for buyers and seller to entry and out.
If price breaks 2160 it will reach 1690 on March 2022, and if crazy thing happen it can continue back to 664 on April.
Be careful make early buy entry.
EUR/USD----------> Sell Zone MISSED :/ Price was clearly fluctuating at the highs in order to accumulate more contracts in the ranges of $1.16928 through $1.16901. Eight Hours later, price comes back to the zone to possibly induce more longs, scare people out of the winning/loosing positions, or most importantly a stop hunt JUST to move back to its original price/path thus going down even futher just ABSOLUTELY blasting through long position Stops from the 28th of October. As of now, I can only see a retest at the ranges of $1.15848 through $1.15750 before moving down to $1.15214.
Gold sep ideaWith NFP numbers, gold found its breakout to upside with low job numbers and it literally exploded in few minutes before the numbers.
But it reached to all-time resistance 1833 area and have significant resistance and need to have a clear breakout to confirm moving upside towards 1900.
It might come back to the area of `1810 to take support with an extension to 1801 to find its support before moving up and can have a significant pullback.
Anyways all in all final gold starts moving .....
DYOR and play safe
Is this the time for a break out? or Is this just a retest?Looking at the current pattern of ETH, we can see that ETH is currently making an Ascending Broadening Wedge in its price action!!!
According to research, this Ascending Broadening Wedge has a 79% chance of breaking towards the upside and 21% for breaking towards the downside...
On that note, we can be quite bullish overall as breaking toward the upside more or less is a 4 to 1 scenario.
But, also on that note... Will we see the breakout now? Or Will we see a retest of the wedge first?
To confirm this, we need to look at todays candle as to gauge the strength of ETH...
If it is strong enough, testing and breaking the 0.618 FIB level ($3360) pulled from the ATH to the lowest level from last months dip would be reachable.
On contrary, if this is just a test, and there's not enough powder to fire up ETH, I am predicting my green line as its next support test ($2880).
The green line is a minor 0.5 Fib level from the last correction ($2441) to the current high ($3342).
Comment down below which one do you think ETH will do??
Thank you for reading