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SHORT VNQ, GET OUT WHILE YOU CANI have been tracking this ETF for a long period of time. We just broke one-year resistance and clear evidence on the fib retracement (specifically level 0.5) shows that the price was weakening. Technicals aside, there is no reason as to why this should move upwards. This pandemic has taken out firms with high leverage, left more than 25 million Americans jobless, and monetary policy hasn't been as effective because people haven't been going out. Not only that, but the government will also now have to think twice about their spending, as our debt has dramatically increased this year accompanied by a significant drop in tax revenue. Consumers have less income and are looking towards their savings to live through this pandemic. As we move to reopen, firms will look to deleverage and cut spending. This means that unemployment will most certainly not go back to its previous levels anytime soon and the average American will be in no position to take in debt in the form of a mortgage. I'd even argue to some extent that many will look to sell their homes. So how does this relate to VNQ? Home prices haven't adjusted because a decrease in supply helped remedy the decrease in demand. If you analyze active listing for the months of April, you will see that in almost every market, there has been a significantly smaller number of homes being listed. Hence, there have been fewer homes being sold at the price pre-virus. These price levels were already thought to be reaching a bubble, but with this sudden change in demand, these prices will correct most certainly. As we look to reopen, people will look to sell their houses. Realtors will push people to sell their homes. This increase in supply accompanied by the withstanding lack of demand will drive housing prices all the way down. I expect we will see these prices fall in areas with typically less demand than others first. Looking at listings in suburban areas, we are already seeing sellers change listings and drop their price, with still no buyer. It is still early to get out as prices haven't adjusted and many cities haven't reopened. Now, residential real estate accounts for 14.53% of VNQ. The problem lies in commercial real estate, 40.48% of VNQ. As said before, firms will want to deleverage and cut spending. Not only that, but offices will be dead anytime soon as many companies will want to remain online for the next quarter or two. The only downside will have to do with hospitals and clinics, but as we flatten the curve, the need for hospitals will not be any larger than the need for them a month or two ago. Regarding specialized REITs, there are going to be numbers of people that will not be able to pay rent or will find the price of rent too high in comparison to their income. All in all, all we can see is red! Hopefully, this doesn't truly occur because many will be hurt by this crash, but it is hard not to warn against the inevitable.
AMEX:VNQShort
by FrancescoChiappe
Bitcoin is enticing bearsI am not impressed with the pennant breakout confirmed on the daily chart on Thursday. While it is a bullish continuation setup, the shape of the Thursday's candle, which confirmed the breakout, is indicative of buyer fatigue. Its the long upper shadow that takes the shine off the breakout. Also, rallies into or above $7,000 continue to be sold into. The cryptocurrency has failed at least 4-5 times to penetrate or keep gains above $7,000. All in all, its no longer a constructive chart and suggests scope for a fresh drop. Prices may drop to $6,138, under which a major support is seen near $5,850. I would consider buying once I see a convincing candle – one with small or no upper shadow – on the hourly chart or a green marubozu candle on the 15-min chart, marking a breakout above $7,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by OmiFX8
1
Nailed supports precisely! Now what's next?Hey guys. Quick post to let you know that I'm watching these moves closely. Neutral stance right now with longer term (months out) bull bias. Any dip below our supports in the chart above signifies and longer correction which could last weeks before we continue up. If we dip below our supports ( the red trendline and purple horizontal on the RSI), we'll end up back below the 20 cent mark and stay there for a few weeks. This is a bull market, therefore, I am not expecting the longer term correction. But, it could happen. It is wise to keep some cash on hand for this scenario. Our 200MA sits right above 20 cents right now. At the very least, we may kiss that one last time before sailing to new highs. But I am not even sure this will happen. These bulls are buying every dip. My only hesitation is lack of volume. Where is the volume on these move? For these reasons, I remain neutral with bullish bias above our supports. I would turn slightly bearish below our support, with the understanding that the correction will be longer. But overall I would still be longer term bullish even below 20 cents. Dipping below 14 cents would cause me to become bearish longer term. The latter is the least likely scenario IMO. Happy trading folks.
by stewdamus
2
BRENT.CMD/USD 4H Chart: Likely to hit $70 markThe BRENT.CMD/USD pair has been trading in a medium-term ascending channel pattern since the end of December 2018. The pair re-tested the lower boundary of the channel pattern at 66.50 during last week’s trading session. As for the near future, it is likely that the Brent crude oil prices will continue to appreciate and potentially hits the $70 mark before the end of March trading session. Moreover, the three simple moving averages are below the price level, and technical indicators suggest that bullish traders could push the commodity prices further north.
TVC:UKOILLong
by UnknownUnicorn890690
LIGHT.CMD/USD 4H Chart: Will continue to gain strengthThe Light crude oil prices have continued to appreciate in a medium-term channel against the US Dollar. The 50-hour simple moving average has pushed the pair towards the $60 mark. The LIGHT.CMD/USD pair is trading near a resistance level formed by the weekly pivot point at 60.18. If the weekly PP hold, a possible pullback towards a support cluster at 59.21 could follow within this session. On the other hand, if the crude oil prices pass the resistance line as mentioned above, the pair might hit the $62 mark before the end of March.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
AUDCAD fundamentals and technicalsCanadian benchmark rate is at 1,75% and is expected to rise gradually but is dependent on the oil prices, as growing concerns over growing surplus and lower demand. Canada is highly dependent on the U.S. economy where there are expectations on a slowdown to more sustainable pace through 2019. Consumption spending and housing investment is slowly weakening, and a high interest rate is not helping. while household spending also will be dampened further. The economy is expected to grow by 1,7% this year. CPI inflation is also expected to edge further down, while a lower canadian dollar could increase some upward pressure. Australia´s benchmark rate is at 1,50% and is likely to stay at the level for some time. the lower level of interest rates are showing some support for the Australian economy. After a rise in house prices credit conditions for borrowers are tighter than before which results a fall in house prices. Some optimism for a U.S. - China trade agreement could push the AUD higher, while slowing growth concerns can put some downside risk to the Aussie as Australia is highly dependent on China which is the biggest export market for them. CPI inflation is expected to fall in the short term because of the low oil prices. Australia´s economy is expected to grow with 3% through 2019 and support a strong labor market while also supporting inflation target of 2% Growth outlook is being supported by rising business investments and higher spending on public infrastructure. CFTC-Report is showing a bigger positions in net short on the CAD than the AUD where previously levels have shown that the aussie was heavily shorted. the net short is slowly decreasing for AUD. Bond spreads between CA05Y vs. AU05Y is tight with a higher yield on the CA05. This could indicate that some selling is taking place for CA05 and some buying for AU05 i expect the bond yields to widen a bit with higher yield on CA05 Looking for a break of 0.95 handle with stops below 0.94 handle.
Long
by Fx-AlphaStrats
USDCAD Vs. Gold and Oil Gold and oil prices is one of the facts for rising and falling Cad. a small pullback in oil is expected before more upside potential. Risk of higher us oil output =lower prices. slowing global economy=less demand But there are some potential in the EM, Which can increase the demand and push prices a bit higher. OPEC just released its oil market report, where there is no highlights of the production cuts, and prices. This could sound like they are hiding there plans to cut further and Increase prices. Gold could also see some further upside potential in H2 2019, after a small pullback. Shorting USDCAD when break of the trend. monitoring gold and oil prices for this position.
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
Bitcoin Long Term Chart 2014-18 This Time Is Not Different Lets get one thing straight, Market Psychology has not changed between 2014-18 & all of the tech progressions have been priced in, the price has risen with the fundamentals. So now everyone is wondering when is the bottom? First you need to understand where we are in the market cycle. The chart shows the stages of where the market has been since the last bubble and where it is at now, Here is a description of the phases. The Accumulation Phase : This phase occurs after the market has bottomed and the innovators (corporate insiders and a few value investors) and early adopters (smart money managers and experienced traders) begin to buy. The Mark-Up Phase : At this stage, the market has been stable for a while and is beginning to move higher. The early majority are getting on the bandwagon. This group includes technicians who, seeing that the market is putting in higher lows and higher highs, recognize that market direction and sentiment have changed The Greed or Late Majority Phase : During this stage, the late majority jump in and market volumes begin to increase substantially. At this point, valuations climb well beyond historic norms, and logic and reason take a back seat to greed. While the late majority are getting in, the smart money and insiders are unloading. The Distribution Phase : In this phase, sellers begin to dominate. This part of the cycle is identified by a period in which the bullish sentiment of the previous phase turns into a mixed sentiment. Prices can often stay locked in a trading range that can last a few weeks or even months. But the distribution phase can come and go quickly.When this phase is over, the market reverses direction. Mark-Down Phase : The final phase in the cycle is the most painful for those who still hold positions. Many hang on because their investment has fallen below what they paid for it, behaving like the pirate who falls overboard clutching a bar of gold, refusing to let go in the vain hope of being rescued. I believe the mark down phase is about to get into full swing Waiting for the Accumulation Phase To Re-enter long positions Follow for updates
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CryptoFeed101
12