Corporate governance reforms are working for JapanJapan1 is trading at a 33-year high, despite a challenging global macro backdrop. At 15x forward Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio, Japan has been trading at a valuation discount versus global peers, for a considerable period of time. We are finally starting to see a number of catalysts help narrow the wide valuation gap versus global peers – an improvement in corporate governance, rebound in domestic consumption post the pandemic, strong earnings results in FY3/23 and a weaker yen. This has led to a notable influx of overseas investor capital into Japanese stocks for 8 weeks in a row.
This rally was initially stoked by Warren Buffet publicly investing in Japan’s five leading trading companies. Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffets industrial and insurance conglomerate also said it intended to hold onto the investments for the long haul and could increase the size of its holdings to as much as 9.9%.
The Japanese equity rally has also been fuelled further by a combination of strong macro-economic data and solid earnings results which saw ¥5Trn in buyback announcements. On the macro front, the re-opening driven rebound in domestic demand is supporting the economy.
Recovery in Travel demand boosts business confidence
According to data on travel and tourism from the Japan Tourism Agency (JTA), spending on domestic travel reached ¥4.2Trn in Jan- March 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels slightly. The rapid recovery in inbound consumption is also a tailwind with the number of visitors to Japan in April back up to 73% of the 2019 average. Strong travel demand is supportive for business confidence. In tandem, the May services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reached its highest level since the survey began in 2007. This is consistent with trends in consumer sentiment evident from the May consumer confidence survey which showed an improvement in the consumer confidence index for the third month in a row2.
Rebound in domestic demand aids growth
According to preliminary estimates, GDP in Jan-Mar Calendar Year (CY)23 grew by 0.4% following two quarters of negative growth3. The main driver was private second demand, with consumption rising 0.6% and capex up 0.9% quarter on quarter (QoQ)3. Even public investment, which has been weak for a while, rose 2.4% QoQ contributing 0.1% to GDP growth. On the flipside external demand, highlighted in the export trade data, contracted 4.2%, dragging down headline GDP growth by 0.9%. While inbound spending, classified as services exports in the GDP statistics, increased 5.6% QoQ, goods exports contracted 6.5%3.
Fast forward through years of deflation, inflation is beginning to trend higher. Inflation triggered by structural labour shortages is forcing companies to raise wages meaningfully and re-think their pricing strategy. So, while the rest of the world is battling inflation fires, Japan is trying to ignite one. However, the most recent inflation print in May showed a surprising slowdown in Tokyo core price gains. Slower inflation is good news for households, which are spending more as the economy re-opens. It also gives further ammunition for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to maintain its stance on ultra loose monetary policy.
BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledges that Japan’s economy continues to require significant stimulus to maintain a goal of stable demand-driven 2% inflation. Owing to which, we have seen the Japanese Yen decline 5.51%4 versus the US dollar. This in turn has made Japanese exports cheaper aiding Japanese export companies.
The myth that Japanese companies do not reward shareholders has been dispelled now
Japan’s Fiscal Year 31 March 2023 earnings season witnessed results that were resilient overall. What stood out was the large increase in the number of share buyback announcements ¥5Trn. This was not a consequence of profit growth alone but more likely a result of the changes of the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s (TSE) Price/Book (P/B) criteria as discussed here. Share buybacks have attracted foreign investors and is providing an important tailwind for Japanese equities.
Corporate governance reform has been a thematic in Japan for seven years. However, this time we are seeing reform make breakthroughs. We got early indications from the mini-March annual shareholder meeting that showed Japanese investors voting more actively at AGMs. The next major catalyst will be the June AGM season. In regard to the potential impact to the new TSE guidelines on Japanese companies, feedback initially was mixed. However, we have seen 15%+ moves on the day of reform announcements by Japanese companies which confirms the market is clearly rewarding companies that are being proactive.
Solid earnings results provide a tailwind for Japanese equities
Japan’s Fiscal Year 31 March 2023 earnings results were resilient highlighting sales growth 16.4% YoY and 2% in net profits YoY5. The sectors that guided for the highest earnings growth in Fiscal Year 31 March 2024 are the ones that benefit from lower materials prices, namely electric power & gas, pulp & paper, and glass & ceramics. The domestic demand-led sectors are posed to benefit from reopening and inbound tourism, including land transportation, retail, and financial. They also issued the next strongest earnings guidance.
Pricetobookratio
📊 6 Ratios Investors MUST Know📍The current ratio is a financial metric used to assess a company's short-term liquidity and ability to cover its immediate obligations. It is calculated by dividing a company's current assets by its current liabilities. A higher current ratio indicates a better ability to meet short-term financial obligations.
📍The price-to-earnings ratio is a valuation metric used to evaluate the relative value of a company's stock. It is calculated by dividing the market price per share by the earnings per share. The P/E ratio provides insights into investor sentiment and expectations regarding a company's future earnings growth. A higher P/E ratio often suggests that investors anticipate higher future earnings.
📍Return on equity is a profitability ratio that measures how effectively a company generates profits from shareholders' equity. It is calculated by dividing net income by shareholders' equity. ROE provides insights into a company's efficiency in utilizing shareholder investments to generate profits. A higher ROE indicates better profitability and efficient use of equity.
📍The debt-to-equity ratio is a financial leverage ratio that indicates the proportion of a company's financing that comes from debt compared to equity. It is calculated by dividing total debt by shareholders' equity. The D/E ratio helps assess a company's financial risk and its reliance on debt for operations and growth. A higher D/E ratio implies higher financial leverage and increased risk.
📍The price-to-book value ratio is a valuation metric that compares a company's market price per share to its book value per share. Book value represents the net asset value of a company, calculated by subtracting liabilities from assets. The P/B ratio is used to assess whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued. A lower P/B ratio may indicate an undervalued stock.
📍The price/earnings to growth ratio is a valuation metric that combines the P/E ratio with a company's projected earnings growth rate. It is calculated by dividing the P/E ratio by the earnings growth rate. The PEG ratio helps investors evaluate a company's stock in relation to its growth prospects. A lower PEG ratio may suggest that the stock is relatively undervalued compared to its expected earnings growth
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THG PLC: Reversal and Bullish Island Pattern1) I believe that the bullish wedge pattern (June-August) is still valid with the price target of 88.
2) Island Pattern, which is reversal and bullish.
3) Price to book ratio: 0.32
4) Insiders are buying the stock at these levels.
1st target: 88
2nd target: 104.85 (gap)
$CRWD H&S Bear Pennant BreakdownHi! $CRWD displays a fantastic symmetrical H&S top formation. This is accompanied by a bear pennant formation forming at the neck line breakdown area of $169. The entire formation is bearish. Nothing about this stock appears friendly. PE is 167 and trading at 43X price to book, (which is very expensive).
Will the madness keep up? Or are we beginning a down trend? TSLAShort on Tesla so long as we stay below the yellow trend line not sure if it is ready to continue upwards without another retest at 1000 and perhaps a break here could lead back down to 900.
Tesla is a mixed bag. Increasing EBIDTA looks good. Decreasing debt looks good. Debt to Equity ratio decreasing. Solid company.
But the P/B and P/E ratios are high indicating that Tesla is overvalued.
There is clearly a lot of faith for the future put in Tesla, will the time come for it to drop back down to a more representative valuation or will the madness will continue some more?
Might add to my short if the RSI hits overbought on this run upwards, perhaps this is the highest we see the price before a dip to 1060/1000.
Let me know your thoughts below. Constructive criticism and alternative viewpoints are always welcome. Please leave a like if you enjoy my analysis :)
And as always
Good day to you :)
ALIBABA BOUNCE FROM TREND LINE Alibaba oversold - RSI is low, historically this has preceded growth.
P/E and P/B are low compared to other industry players and historically. Stochastic RSI was also down so tomorrow may be good for a buy.
Debt to equity ratio decreasing. despite a bit of increased dept from a few Quarters ago.
Let's see what the next few days bring, likely will open a buy position. I will update with TP levels.
Hope you enjoy the idea. Let me know what you think below, anything to add or that I miss?
Good day to you