The Bank of Japan can’t let goThis week financial markets were dominated by central banks policy decisions. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BOE) kept rates on hold, the policy board of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to further increase the flexibility in its yield curve control policy.
The BOJ previously set a strict cap of 1.0% for the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield. But it has now decided that 1% should be a “reference” (not a strict cap), which effectively allows the yield to rise above 1% when the BOJ thinks it is appropriate. The upper bound of 1% appears to be a level they can’t let go of. By doing so, the BOJ is choosing an exit path that gives them the maximum flexibility but minimum volatility around the Yen. We view this as a dovish move as consensus expectations were for the BOJ to move the cap to 1.25% rather than 1%.
Japan’s remains on a narrow path
One of the reasons holding back the BOJ from normalisation of policy rates, is they still believe Japan’s recovery since the re-opening in October 2022 remains on a narrow path as it relies heavily on tourism, while the broader services sectors have yet to pick up significantly and manufacturing activity has been hampered by soft exports. Japan’s flash PMI readings for October showed us a bifurcated economy where the services sector is stronger than the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing PMI clocked in at 47.6, which is in contraction territory. Services PMI was 51.1, which is down from last month’s reading of 53.8 but is still in expansion territory, no doubt helped by fiscal stimulus and the accommodative monetary policy environment.
BOJ on the lookout for an intensified virtuous cycle between wages and prices
BOJ governor Ueda indicated that the BoJ will be monitoring the upcoming spring union-employer wage negotiations. A strong outcome could catalyse the earlier attainment of sustained inflation in Japan, but overall, Japan’s recovery isn’t strong enough yet for employers, especially small enterprises, to meaningful support wage hikes in the broad economy. While headline inflation bolted north of 4% in January 2023, it appears to have peaked and has begun receding. While core inflation remains around the 4% mark. The Producer Price Index (PPI) slowed to 2% annually in September suggesting a stabilization or even drop in CPI ahead.
The BOJ revised its outlook for core inflation (all items less fresh food and energy) to 3.8% in FY23, 1.9% for FY24 and 1.9% for FY25. The BoJ stated that the inflation uptick “needs to be accompanied by an intensified virtuous cycle between wages and prices”.
The Yen is unlikely to appreciate under BOJ’s policy change owing to the large gap in interest rates between the US and Japan. The direction of the Yen matters for Japanese equities owing to Japan high export tilt. The exporters stand to benefit amidst a weaker Yen.
Fire power abounds for Japanese equities
Japanese equities had a strong first half in 2023, attaining 33-year highs. Yet valuations at 15.7x price to earnings ratio (P/E), still trade at a 30% discount to its 15-year average providing room to catch up. More importantly, earnings revision estimates in Japan are currently the highest among the major economies. Earnings yield at 4.07% for the Nikkei 225 Index has been trending above bond yields 0.947% for 10 Year JGBs , keeping the well-known TINA (There is no Alternative) trade alive in favour of Japanese equities.
Tailwind from corporate governance reforms
Tokyo Stock Exchange’s (TSE) call for listed companies to focus on achieving sustainable growth and enhancing corporate value is beginning to bear fruit. The call was aimed at companies with a price to book (P/B) ratio below one. Those companies were asked to develop a plan for improvement, disclose and then implement and track its progress. The progress has been encouraging with 31% of companies on the prime market making a disclosure of their plan .
Large companies with a price to book ratio below one have been more proactive with disclosure. Historically cash-heavy Japanese companies face increasing pressure to improve their numbers, possibly by funnelling historically high excess cash reserves into increased buybacks or dividends.
Conclusion
Inflation has been missing in Japan for more than a decade. So now that it has arrived aided by the post pandemic pick up of the Japanese economy, policy makers are not in a rush to obliterate it. With wage growth lagging behind inflation, the Bank of Japan does not appear ready to wean itself from Yield Curve Control until a more intensified virtuous cycle is observed between wages and prices. The BOJ’s policy decision this week is unlikely to allow the appreciation of the Yen, which should continue to provide a competitive advantage to Japanese exporters.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Pricetoearnings
Is AI excitement creating a stock market bubble?History shapes our views and we are always seeking analogs comparable to current events. Even if we know that ‘past performance is not indicative of future performance’, we are still comforted when we draw parallels to the past. Many are now drawing parallels of the current tech enthusiasm to the dawn of the internet.
The quintessential example of a ‘bubble’ occurred in the late 1990’s. Some hallmarks of that time:
When companies put the suffix ‘.com’ on their names, their share prices soared. Any company can do this and it has nothing to do with any real business prospects or potential.
With the absence of profits or even sales, new metrics were created to make the case for progress in businesses like webpage visits or clicks.
Many of the leading internet companies did not have positive earnings but, even in the more established S&P 500 which required profitability to get included, we approached price levels of 100x earnings for many large cap names. Hundreds of billions of dollars of market capitalisation was supported by dreams of wild future profits.
And for what is happening in the first half of 2023:
There are companies putting ‘AI’ (artificial intelligence) into their names, but it is not yet a huge number and, alongside this, the transition of big numbers of private companies tapping the public markets has not yet happened. Additionally, companies putting AI into their names have real business reasons for doing so.
Naturally, investors will look to track measures like the intensity with which firms are using AI or engaging with data. Because people remember the 2000-02 ‘Tech Bubble’ period, we doubt that investors will also then say that ‘earnings don’t matter’ or ‘revenues don’t matter’—or at least that could still be some time away.
When people look at how the big indices, like the Nasdaq 100 Index and the S&P 500 Index, are being driven higher by the largest companies, we see that all of those large companies are ‘real businesses’. They have revenues, they have cash flows, and they have earnings. It’s absolutely true that investors might look at Nvidia, as an example, and think that the multiple is too high for the growth that they expect to see—but it’s not a case where Nvidia is selling the dream of making a chip one day. Nvidia chips exist, they are sold, and Nvidia is the clear leader in providing the graphics processing units (GPUs) that allow AI to run.
Even if the market could very well be ripe for a near-term correction after a nearly 6-month run, and even if that run was accompanied by a hype cycle in AI, we are not seeing signals that the broad technology focused stocks are in bubble territory.
Let’s look at some numbers
During the ‘Tech Bubble’ investors decided to not consider the classic statistics. We will not make that mistake here.
We create a view of the ‘Expanded Tech’ sector. Companies like Meta Platforms and Alphabet are in ‘Communication Services.’ Amazon.com (even accounting for that .com suffix) is in ‘Consumer Discretionary’. Information Technology includes Microsoft and Apple. If we use this ‘Expanded Tech’ designation, we capture a broader cross section of technology.1
In 1998-2000, roughly speaking, this index was hitting a forward P/E ratio2 of more than 55x. The initial run up was based on prices and euphoria—the second spike into the 50x range would have been from the quick drop in forward earnings expectations when the popping of the bubble was clear.
Looking at what the same Index is currently trading at in terms of forward P/E present, it is still below 30x. 28.4x is not ‘cheap’, so we are not seeking to indicate that tech is currently cheap in any way.
Back in 2000, real interest rates were higher. However, we would note that this multiple expansion has occurred alongside a higher interest rate environment—not always an easy feat for stocks to achieve. Back in 2000, when the tech sector was over 55x forward earnings, real interest rates (measured by TIPS bonds) were double where they are currently.
We can see how the ‘other stocks’ that are not tech have been doing by way of valuation. These other stocks never broke a 30x forward P/E ratio during the tech bubble.
The current valuation of the ex-tech part of the S&P 500 is at 16.7x, and is very close to the average over the full period. This is not ‘cheap’, but certainly not getting into the more expensive territory.
The bottom line: a bubble is not just ‘a bit expensive’ but, rather, a bubble represents a situation where there is a clear case that prices have gone extremely far beyond fundamentals. Forcing ourselves back to a classic figure, forward P/E ratio, we don’t see evidence of that being the case.
Dealing with the AI hype cycle
Still, we understand that performance in thematic equities can come in waves. One way to deal with these waves is to allocate to certain themes and then recognise that, over a cycle (something closer to 10 years than 5 years), there are going to be periods of strongly positive and strongly negative returns.
In many cases, knowing whether the themes are working or not is something completely different from looking at the share price performance. What we know today is that, in the current quarter, Nvidia is expecting revenues in the range of $11 billion USD3. It will be critical to watch that trajectory, which then indicates a 12-month run rate above $40 billion. Do we actually see that materialise? Similarly, companies like Microsoft and Alphabet will continue to talk about the topic and launch new options for their customers. These are the kinds of things that we can honestly see and monitor.
Signals of a greater degree of froth could entail seeing a much more robust IPO (initial public offering) market in specific AI companies, which may happen in the future but is not here yet. We are not saying that one day there cannot ultimately be a bubble—we are all still human, and human behaviours create bubbles—but what we are seeing at this moment is not yet there.
Sources
1 This is akin to older definitions of the section before GICs made some changes to internet and communications stocks.
2 P/E ratio = price to earnings ratio.
3 Source: Factset, as of Nvidia’s earnings guidance given on their Q1 2023 earnings call.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
P/E rerating by end of 2023Long story short - the market will likely rerate the earnings multiple upwards as oil continues to remain elevated. Do keep in mind that the GOAT is buying chevron and occidental. The cash flow here is going to continue to impress and in a difficult global environment it will suddenly attract capital , causing that multiple to inflate towards the 2 digit mark.
Will the madness keep up? Or are we beginning a down trend? TSLAShort on Tesla so long as we stay below the yellow trend line not sure if it is ready to continue upwards without another retest at 1000 and perhaps a break here could lead back down to 900.
Tesla is a mixed bag. Increasing EBIDTA looks good. Decreasing debt looks good. Debt to Equity ratio decreasing. Solid company.
But the P/B and P/E ratios are high indicating that Tesla is overvalued.
There is clearly a lot of faith for the future put in Tesla, will the time come for it to drop back down to a more representative valuation or will the madness will continue some more?
Might add to my short if the RSI hits overbought on this run upwards, perhaps this is the highest we see the price before a dip to 1060/1000.
Let me know your thoughts below. Constructive criticism and alternative viewpoints are always welcome. Please leave a like if you enjoy my analysis :)
And as always
Good day to you :)
ALIBABA BOUNCE FROM TREND LINE Alibaba oversold - RSI is low, historically this has preceded growth.
P/E and P/B are low compared to other industry players and historically. Stochastic RSI was also down so tomorrow may be good for a buy.
Debt to equity ratio decreasing. despite a bit of increased dept from a few Quarters ago.
Let's see what the next few days bring, likely will open a buy position. I will update with TP levels.
Hope you enjoy the idea. Let me know what you think below, anything to add or that I miss?
Good day to you
Improve your Technical Analysis using Fundamental Analysis!In this video I decided to show you how to use Fundamental Analysis along with Technical Analysis in order to improve your understanding about the market.
Although it is not common, as most people seem to like Tradingview for its price charts/indicators, you can use this platform for fundamental analysis as well . In this video I explain the importance of looking at the fundamentals through a chart.
I hope you'll like the video! In this case, remember to support this idea, and follow me for more content like this.
Have a good week.
Fundamental Indicators used in this video:
- Price to Earnings;
- Net Margin (%);
- Return on Invested Capital (ROIC).
When is Apple cheap? Based on P/S & P/EHey everybody.
In this idea i am trying to figure out when is the right time to buy apple based on P/S , P/E and the EMA of 55 Months!!!
In order to reach my conclusions i took 5 points starting from the 08 financial crisis. However in that time apple was in super growth and high expectations mode so for sure P/S and P/E were in excess. Definitely over the last years apple's sales and net profit have become more predictable compared to 15-20 years ago.
I should also point out that metrics such as P/S, P/E etc.. are really dynamic in relation to monetary policy, so my calculations should not be taken that seriously in times like these. Right now with interest rates globally at 0% and even negative -% and tons of liquidity and young players in the market apple is more of a safe heaven rather than a simple value stock.
P/S and P/E right as we speak are deviating away from their mean but what i want to understand better is not when apple is expensive rather when is cheap!!!
Feel free to add your comments and find out together when we should buy this beautiful company. Patience is the key!
***Please note that in my calculations i have not included the latest top!!! since we are not yet sure whether the stock is going to be higher or lower in the upcoming months.
TSLA to close today`s gap (at least) It makes no much sense to buy stock at 300-400 PE. To give an idea, AMZN PE is 138 currently and iis expensive!
On TSLA this is hugelly speculative flow that doesnt tend to hold.
Im entering todays short with 2 strategies. One buy puts for september with strike 1120 (previous price to close the gap) and short the stock with Stop loss of 5%.
Targets are 1120 (8%) on the closed gap and 890 on the 50 day moving average.