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Primarytrend

SPX Falls Below the Midpoint of Its 13-Year Uptrend ChannelPrimary Chart: Logarithmic Chart with 13-Year Secular Uptrend Defined by Parallel Channel BRIEF SUMMARY: The secular uptrend over the past 13 years is still valid and contains within its boundaries the current bear market, which is at the primary trend level. SPX's price has fallen past the midpoint of the channel. Two weekly closes have been below the midpoint of this channel. This week's close was lower than last weeks, which is not bullish at all, even if an oversold relief rally is becoming more likely. The lower edge of the channel, called the upward trendline, lies at 3000 to 3200 from year end to about May 2023. If this bear market lasts that long, the lower edge of the channel may provide a good spot for the bear to end—or for a much longer-term shift in trend should that line break. SPX has been in what technicians call a secular uptrend for approximately 13 years. A secular trend is an even higher degree of trend than the commonly discussed "primary trend." A primary trend typically ranges from about 9 months to 2 years. Two recent examples illustrate the primary trend: (1) The bull market from the March 2020 lows to the January 2022 highs, and (2) the bear market from the January 2022 high to the present date (9 months exactly). By contrast, a secular trend is about 12-25 years long according to technical expert Martin Pring. When examining the price on a weekly chart from the lows of the 2008-2009 crash (the Great Financial Crisis) to the present date, one can find that the price has stayed within a trend channel, respecting its upper and lower boundaries more or less. Will the channel break to show a much larger and longer-term shift in change? That is a question that no one can answer, but it will be worth noting whether price breaks or finds support at the channels lower boundary, the upward trendline. Recently, price broke through the midpoint of this channel . Last week was the first weekly close below the midpoint. This week followed through with a decisive move lower and a second close below the midpoint—along with a lower weekly low. This is not bullish no matter how oversold oscillators and indicators may be. Speaking of oscillators, what oscillators predicted whether the June 2022 lows would be undercut? None: they all looked like they could be oversold, or close enough to oversold to work for a double bottom. The double-bottom conversation also suggests that capitulation is not present. The widespread discussion of the term is actually bullish, reflecting hopes that the market will reverse its downtrend and put in a bullish reversal formation that will lead back to all-time highs. Is that the sort of sentiment that is commonly seen at a true bear-market low? The five stages of a bear market include denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. Could equity markets still be in denial? Or have markets moved to the third stage of bargaining? With all the talk of "double bottoms," in both equities and crypto, perhaps the current stage is "bargaining." Why? By describing the present selloff in this bear market as a "double bottom," market participants attempt to place the current ugly decline in a positive light. A double bottom, after all, is a pattern that implies a powerful rally after the second bottom, where the rally eventually exceeds the peak between the two bottoms and continues thereafter once confirmed. So all the banter about double bottoms shows that a lot of bullish hopes still have not been crushed. The end of a bear market, however, evidences the fourth and fifth stages of bear-market grief, which is depression and acceptance (capitulation). Sure, a double bottom could lead to a nice bounce because oversold extremes tend to cause mean reversions anyway, and when everyone is looking at a double bottom, shorts may cover and investors may try to pick the bottom. That is why my hypothetical arrow shows a jagged trip to the lower upward trendline of the parallel channel. First a little lower, then higher in another OS bounce / bear rally, then lower again, then up as people try to catch the low, then lower again, and so on. Eventually, price may likely come into contact with the lower edge of the channel—and the long-term secular uptrend will still be intact and neatly contain this bear market. In other words, this bear market at the level of primary trend will not invalidate the secular uptrend, unless price breaks that line around SPX 3000-3100 (considering where the line lies in 3 to 6 months). ________________________________________ Author's Comments: (1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. (2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades. (3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. (4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
TVC:SPX
by SquishTrade
17
NVDA: Placing the Rally in ContextPrimary Chart: NVDA's Primary Trend Since Its All-Time High November 22, 2021, with Anchored VWAPs SUMMARY: NVDA appears to have begun a countertrend rally within the context of a sharp downtrend. Other countertrend rallies have ranged from 28.9% to 40.17%. Don't be fooled by a show of strength that does not change the overall structure. Countertrend trading is lower probability, but can be lucrative if risk is managed with great discipline. The most conservative upside target (resistance) range for this rally is $128-$130. This would be reached, if at all, in the next week or two. If the $128-$130 level is reclaimed successfully, then the next higher target to consider is the $145-$150 range discussed below. Watch the green uptrend line off the YTD low on October 13, 2022 and the red VWAP anchored to the YTD low. If either is broken, all bets are off. NVDA has rallied about 15.58% off its YTD lows on October 13, 2022. The lows have not been undercut now for a little over a week. Broader equity indices have rallied as well, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both gaining about 2.3% on Friday. NVDA rallied along side both these indices. 1. NVDA's rally could continue into the FOMC meeting on November 1-2, 2022. The FOMC is likely to increase interest rates by .75 percentage points at the November 2022 meeting. The CME's Fed watch tool, tracking federal-funds-rate futures products, shows the probability of a 75 bps hike at 88% for November. Have markets already discounted this? Probably. What is unknown is whether any change in the Fed's messaging will occur or will the Fed maintain its higher-for-longer hawkish stance to deal with sticky inflation. Fed officials have spoken in recent weeks expressing dissatisfaction with the current inflationary environment and its ramifications for price stability. 2. Pullbacks may likely respect the very short-term VWAP anchored to the YTD low (red VWAP anchored to October 13, 2022). Watch this VWAP for support. If the VWAP is violated, it will be important to determine if the violation is decisive (slicing through and showing no sign of reverting back to the level) or if the violation is minor and brief. 3. NVDA just closed above its 21-day EMA, which lies at 124.16. Today's close was 124.66. 4. Before any higher price targets can be taken seriously, NVDA must reclaim its 34-day EMA (currently just below $130) as well as a key Fibonacci level (teal .236 level at $128.10) (shown just below this paragraph). This is the most conservative target zone for a countertrend rally. Supplementary Chart: Fibonacci Levels 5. A more ambitious zone for a price target may be considered only if the 34-day EMA is recovered first. This secondary target zone comprises two technical levels: (a) the VWAP anchored to the August 4, 2022, high currently located at 143.08, and (b) the gap fill area (teal-blue rectangle) at $145 to $150. 6. It remains crucial to place any rally into context, even if the rally seems like a powerful rally that is unstoppable for a while, like some of the other bear rallies in this market. Massive bear rallies can trick market participants into thinking the lows may be in, and lure them with fear of missing out. Other countertrend rallies have ranged from 28.9% to 40.17%. Don't be fooled by a show of strength that does not change the overall structure. Countertrend trading is lower probability, but can be lucrative if risk is managed with great discipline. 7. The larger context is a downtrend at the degree of the primary trend. All major swing highs and lows over the past year have been lower highs and lower lows. The anchored VWAP at the all-time high (dark purple) remains well overhead. Price would have to rally and hold the $190-$200 level to show material structural change. All other rallies will constitute noise at the larger degree of trend. In other words, the downtrend channel should contain any rallies for the time being. If not, then it becomes appropriate to consider whether a larger-degree structural change is occurring that may lead to a major trend reversal. Please note that SquishTrade is "cautiously bullish" only for the next week. In the larger scheme, the outlook remains bearish until substantial evidence appears that structural trend change is occurring at the larger degrees of trend. This remains unlikely with interest rates breaking above a 40-year trendline as discussed in this post:
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:NVDA
by SquishTrade
29
Gold – Long on a classic uptrend line2 Rules for Trendline: 1. Identify the significant lows. At least three points 2. Find the best fit among the significant lows We can apply the 2 points to a down trendline analysis as well. Looking-out for the significant highs instead. Gold started its rally after year 2000. We could see it started forming its primary trendline since 2006. Primary trendline is the key support of any market. When analyzing from a larger timeframe like a weekly chart, it should be considered as an investing position into the long-term. Secondary trendline on a weekly chart, I will deploy for add-on with stop loss in mind. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
1
GBP/USD analysis with mixed signals!Hey tradomaniacs, I`m currently waiting for the FED to give the market more fundamental impulses. Looking at GBP/USD bigger picture we can currently see a mix of bullish and bearish signs. The primary trend is currently moving sideways and has formed an S/H/S-Pattern, which is usually a trend-reversal-pattern. Additionally we see a breakout below the primary trendline but so far no break below the neck-zone of the S/H/S-Pattern. The often respected 200 Moving Average has supported price aswell as you can see at at recent fakeout below support, which is a bullish sign showing absoprtion after attracting bears to sell the S/H/S. A potential lower high could cause a continuation to the upside, but as long as the FED it likely to announce a tapering until mid 2022 (not later than than september and according to MM) I will stay very cautious with longs. Need more clarity and confluence before I execute any trades here. ;-) We either need the S/H/S to get triggered or invalidated! LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
by Trading2ez
6
ORBEX: DOW JONES - Successful Correction Looking BullishDJ could move higher to complete primary wave 3 near 29670, completing the intermediate 5-wave move starting at 21753. The current structure suggests that we are minor wave 3 of the intermediate wave 3. In the sorter degrees, we have completed minute waves 1 and 2 and currently are ready to correct perhaps with a minuette a,b,c wave. That would then allow prices to potentially extend higher for minute wave 3 near 27769, and then 28962. A successful correction could get prices pushed up for the continuation of the bullish pattern. A failure, however, could be the beginning of a deep that could form a fresh intermediate wave 2 low. Look for a valid break above 27396 but also focus on whether a bearish breakout is valid should it occur. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
DJ:DJIShort
by Orbex
BTC shows bullish correction in an overall bearish marketForget about the hype in XRP this morning. People go straight to emotion, but should instead have a plan in place to ease back on the emotion trades. Trust the charts you build or trust someone you watch that builds charts. BTC has rallied up a tad right into a 50% Fibonacci retracement level to find some selling interest. Happy Fibonacci Friday! The 61.8% level and the red trend line intersection is a strong spot and should be tough to breach. At the same time price has moved up in the last 48 hours, momentum for trend has weakened. The black ADX line (trend strength indication) plotted under the price chart has dropped the whole time price has tried to rally. I look at this picture as a spot to watch for selling interest to come back into the market to resume the already primary bearish trend that has been in place for a long while. Price needs to break the red trend line to the upside, with backed internal trend momentum, to be the first red flag this market has turned or reversed the primary trend. With all the hype in cryptos the last day or two, the charts show what the hype means.. so far nothing! Any questions let me know!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CryptoMarket360
Dow Double Top Signal: at or near pivot in reaction waveBestimate projection for Dow going into August, tied with October for weakest month of the year. Coming off a strong rally in July, odds favor more volatility. Dow appears to be in a corrective, reactionary wave cycle: 'A' wave from first top 07/26 ran down to the flash crash Thursday 08/02 (Label 'W' of WXY reaction). Notice labels for larger primary trend are ABCDE, so I used WXY for the reaction and 12345 for the minor wave cycles. B wave of surprising strength carried index up to the 0.786 Fibonacci retrace (label 'X'). A complete 5 wave impulse in this reaction wave is apparent (labeled; 2-hr chart). Dow banged on ceiling at 25500+ but pushed back, expect at least one retest. To continue the 3rd primary wave from here would require advance to higher high of > 25650 to meet top of rising channel; if index fails to retest channel, then this second high becomes part of a reactionary wave, rather than an actionary continuation of the primary. Expect C wave (Labeled 'Y') to be shallow (Elliott alternating principle); bullish exuberance returns to the markets, buying the dips is back in fashion. A .382 retrace would carry back to 24982; a 0.50 to 24794. A 0.618 to 24606 is quite possible, if anxiety returns to world markets. Time frame for wave C: 5-10 sessions. Very nice analysis at this link presenting two alternate ending plots: www.scienceinvesting.com Comments are welcome; Good luck traders!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
7