Tron's top may be near based on this fractal.TRXUSD is testing the 5-month Resistance following the December/ June aggressive rise.
Levels to watch:
- The Resistance is at 0.0235 the Support at 0.0121.
- A Golden Cross is about to take place on the 1D chart. Last time this happened on a top (February 1 2019) Tron turned sideways for almost 4 months.
- The RSI is printing a similar pattern to February 2019.
- That former consolidation found Support on the symmetrical top of the previous higher high.
Projection:
- This may be a cyclical pattern with the Golden Cross marking the top of a bullish leg and then lengthy consolidation until a new high is made. We are expecting a similar behavior.
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Bitcoin SV: Potential pull back.BSVUSD is consolidating after the aggressive run that led to a peak on January 14.
Levels to watch:
- The Resistance is at 457.500 while the Support at 76.500.
- Golden Cross took place right after the January 14 top. Last time this happened on a top (June 2019) it initiated an extended pull back to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
- The MACD is printing a similar pattern to June's 2019.
- 253.500 is the former Resistance and where the price found Support after the January 14 top.
Projection:
- This appears to be a cyclical pattern for BSV. Golden Cross marking the top of a bullish leg and then progressive decline first towards the 0.500 Fibonacci and then a bottom on the 0.786 level. If however the 457.500 Resistance breaks, then this pattern is void and we can see new highs.
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EURUSD: Outlook ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls.This is a break down analysis of EURUSD ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls.
Fundamental Analysis:
- The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for January have a forecast of 160K, higher than the 145K number of the previous month.
- Based on the last 12 Nonfarm Payrolls reports, EURUSD has a 100% probability to go higher on the 4H chart if the Actual number is lower than the Forecast. Similarly on the 12H timeframe if the Actual reading is higher (>) that the Forecast there is a 66.7% chance to go lower, while for the opposite reading (Actual < Forecast) there is a 80% to go higher. The projection on a 2 day timeframe is also 66.7% probability to go lower if the Actual < Forecast.
- Also keep in mind that EURUSD is in the aftermath of the effects by the higher than expected German Trade Balance. This gives a 66.7% probability for EURUSD to rise on the short term (4H and 12H).
Technical Analysis:
- The pattern is still a Channel Down since the December 31, 2019 High.
- The Resistance levels are at 1.11750 and 1.12400 while the Support at 1.09800 and 1.08800.
- Death Cross (MA50 crossing below the MA200) formed on the 4H chart.
- The RSI is bearish on the September Support.
The above mix indicates that EURUSD is bearish both fundamentally and technically on the long term and as the 1.09800 Support 1 broke, targets the 1.08800 Support 2. On the short term though, with the German data supporting an up move and if the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report lower than expected numbers, we may see a brief spike, which would make an ideal Lower High on the Channel Down technically and can be seen as the longer term sell opportunity. If however the 1.094 level breaks first, then the Channel Down is invalidated and we will most likely see the 1.08800 Support 2 sooner than expected.
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ETHEREUM Aiming for the next resistance at 225.ETHUSD is extending the Channel Up on the 1D chart since December 2019 low. Currently it is attempting a break out above the 199 Resistance.
Levels to watch:
- The Resistance is at 225.00 while the Support at 153.50.
- The former 199.00 Resistance is being tested at the moment.
- The MA50 is now on the 153.50 Support.
- The price is above the MA200 for the first time since September 2019.
Projection:
- Even though it is still marginal, the break above the 199.00 level is a call for further upside within the Channel Up. The 225.00 Resistance fits well with a new Higher High. Also the extension from the latest Higher Low will be 45%, similar to the last Higher High extension.
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SILVER: Bearish Fundamental & Technical outlook.This is a break down analysis of Silver (XAGUSD) in the aftermath of key U.S manufacturing news.
Fundamental Analysis:
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose yesterday to 50.9 in January, up from 47.2 a month earlier, marking the first expansion reading since July. This improved risk appetite and is applying selling pressure on Silver. The U.S. manufacturing sector has been kept low for months as the U.S. China trade war unfolded but the phase one deal prompts investors for even stronger manufacturing readings this year.
- Based on the last 12 ISM Manufacturing PMI reports, Silver followed the statistics that gave a 66.7% probability to go lower on the 4H and 12H timeframe if the Actual reading was higher (>) that the forecast. The prediction is equal (66.7% probability to go lower) on a 2 day time frame as well.
Technical Analysis:
- The pattern is a Channel Down in the last 30 days.
- The Resistance is set at 18.115 and the Support at 17.350.
- Death Cross (MA50 crossing below the MA200) formed on the 4H chart.
- The MACD remains bearish with no sign yet to turn, following the Lower High on the Channel Down yesterday.
The above mix indicates that Silver is bearish both fundamentally (strong manufacturing numbers = lower Silver price) and technically (Channel Down). The last two declines after a Lower High were around -5.30% and we expect Silver to fulfil this sequence in the coming days.
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BINANCE COIN: The key level that will decide the trend.BNBUSD is trading inside a Channel Down since September 2019 currently testing both the Lower High line as well as the MA200 on the 1D chart.
Levels to watch:
- The Resistance levels are 21.9000 and 24.0000 while the Support levels are 12.7000 and 11.8000.
- The Channel Down is making the first important test of the mid December uptrend on the Lower High and MA200 on the 1D chart.
- The MA50 provides support when the price is trading near Lower Highs but when it breaks, strong downtrend starts.
- The MACD is starting to reverse, as it did in November.
Projection:
- BNB is at the moment neutral as even though it is trading within a long term Channel Down, it is close to the MA200 on the 1D chart, breaking of which constitutes a trend change but a rejection can deliver a new low. For that reason we have set a break out level at 16.2500: a bounce there will start invalidating the Channel Down and may lead to testing the Resistances, while a break below (as well as the MA50) will most likely repeat the Channel Down pattern of Lower Lows.
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BITCOIN Critical test on the resistance.BTCUSD is trading inside a Channel Up since December 18 2019 (monthly low) on the 4H chart.
Levels to watch:
- The Resistance levels are 9600 and 10370 while the Support levels are 6850 and 6430.
- The Channel Up is making the first important test of this uptrend on the 9600 Resistance 1 level.
- The Channel up is following a very clear Higher Low pattern. Each Low finds support on a previous High and rebounds.
- The 4H MA200 has been supporting and hasn't been touched since January 03.
- The RSI is on a 20 day support level.
Projection:
- Everything depends on the 8800 level. This is the symmetrical support inside the Channel Up. If it holds then the pattern may continue upwards to test the 10370 Resistance (2). If 8800 breaks then the Channel Up is void and the price may test the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Chances are very even: shorter term momentum favors the bullish extension due to the pattern and the RSI being on a support but longer term bias give strength to the 9600 Resistance as a level where traders who bought the December bottom may start taking profits.
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Litecoin Showing Bearish Signals | Potential Drop MappedLitecoin (LTCH20) is showing multiple bearish signals, prices can easily drop here unless the last high is taken out.
If LTCH20 closes below 0.007553 (EMA10), prices can easily drop and hit 0.007060 (EMA50.
The MACD is showing a bearish cross and bearish divergence.
There is also a bearish divergence with the RSI.
Volume is dropping, we also have a bearish candlestick when the last peak hit...
All these signals are telling us that Litecoin can drop.
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Namaste.
IOTUSD Heavy bullish sentimentIOT has broken above the 1D Channel Up that started the strong uptrend early in January.
Levels to watch:
- The price not only crossed above the Channel Up on the 1D chart but also broke the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
- It is comfortably above both the MA50 and MA200 and in fact a Golden Cross may be due.
- The 0.3150 four month Resistance broke.
- The RSI on the highest values since December 2017.
Projection:
- This is a strong bullish signal with IOT potentially turning parabolic here. The targets are the next Fibonacci retracement levels: 0.786 = 0.4200 and 1.000 = 0.5580.
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USDCHF: Trading on the support. Analysis ahead of weekly news.This is a break down analysis of USDCHF ahead of this week's U.S. (ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) and Swiss (Consumer Confidence) data.
Fundamental Analysis:
- Long term strategists such as Karen Jones (Head of Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank) turn "attention on the 0.961 January low, failure here will target the September 2018 low at 0.9543".
- The week starts off with the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: if actual < forecast then the trend has 77.80% chance to go lower in the next 12 hours. If actual > forecast then the trend has 100% chance to go higher in the next 12 hours.
- If the Swiss Consumer Confidence gives actual < forecast then the trend has 66.70% chance to go higher in the next 12 hours. If actual > forecast then the trend has 75% chance to go lower in the next 12 hours.
- If the U.S. ADP Employment Change gives actual < forecast then the trend has 83.30% chance to go higher in the next 48 hours. If actual > forecast then the trend has 66.70% chance to go higher in the next 12 hours.
- If the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI gives actual < forecast then the trend has 71.40% chance to go higher in the next 48 hours. If actual > forecast then the trend has 80% chance to go higher in the next 12 and 48 hours.
Technical Analysis:
- The Resistance is set within 0.9765 - 0.9745 and the Support within 0.9625 - 0.9610.
- The MA50 can be the first short term Resistance level.
- The RSI is on a 15 day Support level.
- The MACD hasn't yet rolled over to bullish but is close to the 15 day Support level.
The above mix indicates that the pair has fundamentally slightly more chances to reverse higher on the medium term as there are more probabilities for a bullish move after the news release. However depending on the outcome of the reports, traders should act accordingly. Technically with the price at to top of the Support Zone and both the RSI and MACD on/near a 15 day Support level, there are again more probabilities for a rebound. In our view, traders can wait for the MACD to turn bullish (cross) and target the Resistance Zone.
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Ripple Is Preparing To Jump | Massive Potential W/ 10X Lev.The same setup and the same numbers that already generated 100%+ gains for us are still valid for Ripple (XRPH20) with leverage.
For signals, we have bullish divergence with the MACD and RSI and a "high" volume break above EMA10, both signaling that prices are ready to start moving higher.
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This is not financial advice.
All the information shared here is for learning and entertainment purposes only.
Leveraged trading is ultra high-risk and intended only for advanced/experienced traders.
Feel free to leave a comment if you have any questions.
Namaste.
S&P on a bearish short term outlook.S&P has crossed below the long term channel up for the first time since it started in October.
Levels to watch:
- The Resistance is at 3340 while the Support (short term) at 3235.
- The price not only crossed the ascending support of the channel up but also the MA200 on the 4H chart. In fact it crossed it twice in 3 days, which is something we haven't seen for a long time.
- The MA50 (4H chart) has rejected yesterday's bullish attempt and may turn into a resistance.
Projection:
- This is a mix of the strongest bearish outlook since last October. The MA50 (as a resistance) and the MA200 (as a support) are converging dangerously and may form the first Death Cross since October. With the coronavirus threat growing, if the 3235 short term support breaks, we expect a strong sell-off towards the 3070 long term support. Only a break above 3340 restores the bullish sentiment back to the market, as so far every rise is getting sold.
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USOIL Near a long term support. Optimal Buy.USOIL is on a strong decline following the January 08 high, below both the MA50/200.
Levels to watch:
- The Resistance is at 66.60 while the Support at 50.55.
- The RSI has hit the 6 month support level.
- The Golden Cross late in December marked the top.
Projection:
- The 50.55 - 51.90 Zone has provided support and a buy level since June 2019. The pattern (both candles and RSI) is similar to May - June with the Golden Cross preceding the decline to the Support. We are therefore expecting a strong rebound on the support zone with an initial target the 1D MA50.
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EOS Bearish fractal or emerging Golden Cross?EOSUSD is on a rebound since the December low and is testing today the September Resistance.
Levels to watch:
- The Resistance is at 4.2550 while the Support at 2.1200.
- The price is already above both the MA50 and MA200.
- The MA200 is in fact providing Support, keeping the price sideways within the trend line and the Resistance.
- The RSI is on a bearish divergence and the candle fractal (bearish) is similar with late October/ early November.
- Emerging Golden Cross.
Projection:
- If the price fails to close a 1D candle above the 4.2550 Resistance, then EOS will most likely pull back towards the MA50, which in turn if cross may drop further towards the Support. If on the other hand the Resistance breaks, we will see a Golden Cross forming towards 6.1700.
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LITECOIN Double top or bullish break out?LTCUSD is on a rebound made on the 50.150 intermediate support and is testing today the January Resistance.
Levels to watch:
- January's uptrend stopped exactly on the MA200 (1D chart) and pulled back to the 50.150 intermediate support. The rebound leg on that support is again testing the MA200 today.
- Another rejection on the MA200 will make a Double Top formation, which is a bearish pattern.
- The MA50 has already provided support on 1 occasion (07 - 10th January) and could do it again on the intermediate support.
- The MACD turned from bearish to bullish again in 5 days.
- The Resistance is at 68.900 while the Support at 35.600.
Projection:
- If the double top is formed, the we expect a pull back to the intermediate support (50.150) where we will test the real buying pressure. As long as the MA50 can hold, then we give more probabilities to break above the 68.900 Resistance. If the MA50 breaks though, buying pressure will be most likely seen again near the 35.600 Support.
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STELLAR MACD turned bearish with MA200 holding.XLMUSD is trading within the MA50 and MA200 on the 1D chart after the recent top at 0.0670.
Levels to watch:
- January's uptrend stopped exactly on the lower high trend line of the long term channel down that started in May.
- That lower high was exactly on the MA200 on the 1D chart. The previous lower high (November 05) was also formed on the MA200.
- So far the price has found support above the MA50 1D.
- The Support is set at 0.04070 and the Resistance at 0.0900.
- The MACD turned bearish.
Projection:
- Since the uptrend stopped on the lower high of the May channel down (which is the dominant trend) and the 1D MA200 held (as it did on the previous lower high), there is no reason at the moment to believe that the same pattern will not be repeated and go for a new lower low, especially with the MACD turning bearish. Technically if the MA50 breaks we should expect a run towards the 0.04070 Support. If however we have a 1D candle close above the MA200 (hasn't happened since June, we only had wicks), then buyers may push is as high as the 0.0900 Resistance.
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RIPPLE MACD turned bearish. Weekly overview.XRPUSD is consolidating after the Jan 18 high and broke this month's channel up sideways.
Levels to watch:
- January's uptrend stopped exactly on the lower high trend line of the medium term channel down that started in August.
- That lower high was right below the MA200 on the 1D chart. The MA200 has sold the price and acted as a resistance on several occasions since July.
- So far the price has found support on the MA50 1D.
- The Support is set at 0.1700 and the Resistance at 0.33000.
- The MACD turned bearish.
Projection:
- Since the uptrend stopped on the lower high of the August channel down (which is the dominant trend) and the 1D MA200 held, there is no reason at the moment to believe that the same pattern will not be repeated and go for a new lower low, especially with the MACD turning bearish. Technically if the MA50 breaks we should expect a run towards the 0.1700 Support. If however we have a 1D candle close above the MA200 (hasn't happened since early July, we only had wicks), then buyers may push is as high as the 0.3300 Resistance.
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GOLD Weekly Outlook: The mix of coronavirus and the Fed.This is a break down analysis of Gold (XAUUSD) ahead of Wednesday's (January 29th) Fed Interest Rate Decision.
Fundamental Analysis:
- Starting this part of the research we need to make clear that the current price is heavily pushed upwards due to the global worries on the Coronavirus outbreak. Gold has the use of a Safe Haven and when geopolitical tensions rise, investors move capital from riskier assets like stocks (which fall as it has been happening since Friday) to the safety of Gold (which rises). This inflated by fundamental reasons price action is similar to the sessions during the Iran conflict. You can even see that on the support level. If the Coronavirus phase has one more high to give before the tension is de-escalated, nobody knows but technically the resistance is at 1611.
- The Fed interest rate decision is the highlight of the week, an event that no only affects Gold but all markets alike (forex, stocks, bonds etc). The forecast for the Fed Interest Rate Decision is steady at +1.75%. If the actual reading matches this forecast there is a 66.7% chance of a bullish trend in the next 2 days based on the last 12 Fed events.
Technical Analysis:
- The trend on the 1D chart is bullish with all major indicators well in the green zone, RSI at 68.913, STOCH at 53.08, ADX at 46.006, MACD at 17.460. This trend is forming an Ascending Triangle with 1555 as the Support and 1611 as the Resistance.
- The MA50 is supporting this uptrend since January 21.
- The higher low trend line of the Ascending Triangle is the ideal buy zone and we display that in green.
- The RSI pattern hints that we are closer to the top than the bottom of this move.
All the above indicate that Gold, even though the virus worries can lift it towards the Resistance, there are slightly more chances to pull back to the 1D MA50 and the buy zone and as the recent Fed event statistics show, start rising after on a 2 day bullish trend.
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LINK Action plan on pivot point.LINKUSD is on a pull back following the uptrend early in January.
Levels to watch:
- 3.2200 is the resistance and 1.6000 the support.
- With the price trading sideways within the resistance and support, a Death Cross in December marked the bottom (near the support). Potentially a Golden Cross may indicate the top (near the resistance).
- The MACD is turning bearish, indication that the top is in or is close.
Projection:
- If the January 24 low holds then we expect LINK to rise towards the Resistance. On a different occasion the bearish MACD will push it sooner towards the support.
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USDCAD More upside to come.USDCAD is on an uptrend since forming a support at 1.29500.
Levels to watch:
- The rebound on the support has formed a channel up similar to another two occasions.
- The price just hit the MA50 and is consolidating.
- The long term pattern is a bearish megaphone.
- The bearish megaphone's lower highs are made when the price crosses the MA200. This is a top confirmation.
Projection:
- With the MACD still on a bullish trend, we expect the price to continue rising inside the channel up until it crosses the MA200 and makes a lower high on the megaphone.
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CARDANO Mostly bearish due to the 1D MA200.ADAUSD has completed 1 full week of sideways action. Here is the reasons why.
Levels to watch:
- The 0.0465 - 0.0490 Resistance Zone. The peak of the current uptrend was exactly in the middle of that zone.
- The MA200. This is what initiated the sideways trading of the past week. Very likely that traders see it as a profit taking level.
- The 0.0395 level is the first Support to keep an eye on. As long as it holds the sentiment is neutral within 0.0395 - 0.0490.
- The MA50 has been attracted the price action since October acting as a Pivot. Very likely to do so again.
- 0.03250 is the current Support on the 1D chart.
Projection:
We expect the 0.03950 short term Support to be tested and if broken make a run to the MA50 settling around 0.0355.
GBPUSD outlook ahead of the Bank of England.This is a break down analysis of the GBPUSD ahead of next Thursday's (January 30th) Bank of England (Boe) Interest Rate Decision.
Fundamental Analysis:
- Starting with today, the U.K. Manufacturing PMI jumped to 49.8 in January (9-month high), while the Services PMI rose to 52.9 (16-month high). Both did little to keep the pair near the two-week high as investors weigh more next week's BoE monetary policy decision.
- The forecast for the BoE Interest Rate Decision is steady at +0.75%. If the actual reading matches this forecast there is a 66.7% chance of a bullish trend in the next 2 days based on the last 12 BoE events.
Technical Analysis:
- The trend on the 1D chart is neutral with all major indicators flat in the grey zone, RSI at 50.019, STOCH at 53.08, ADX at 17.289, MACD at 0.001. This is because GBPUSD is ranged inside a Descending Triangle with 1.2945 as the Support.
- The MA50 is supporting today.
- Descending trend on the RSI as well. There is no divergence.
All the above indicate that the pair will most likely continue the bearish trend on the long term (if 1.2945 breaks) eyeing the 1.2770 and 1.2550 Support levels in extension. However the BoE Decision can have a temporary bullish effect before the downtrend starts, similar to what took place in April/ May 2019.
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ETCUSD Resistance rejection. Buy the pull back.Ethereum Classic has made an impressive run after bouncing on its Support, beating most of the other cryptocurrencies. Eventually it got rejected on the Resistance
Levels to watch:
- The 9.860 Resistance. Only the wick of the January 16 candle managed to break it but didn't close above it (still rejected on the higher Resistance). All candles have closed below that level.
- The 11.885 higher Resistance that rejected the wick of the January 16 candle.
- The 5.070 level which has been a pivot since March 2019 (acting both as Support and Resistance in times).
- Golden Cross emerging right above the 5.070, which may act as a Support this time.
Projection:
- Pull back near the 5.070 which acts as a Support and a Golden Cross that accumulates buyers back to the 9.860 Resistance.