Growth Cycle Analysis of USD Supply.This is not entirely about a trade, moreso a thought experiment of the future to come.
After the great 2020 coof liquidity crisis a brief and severe expansion of the monetary supply occurred in order to bail out the entire economy. This seems to be followed by an equivalent expansion rate mirrored by the 1971 expansion. The marked difference this time is that the interest rate is 0. To reign this in would require negative rates, or capital controls, AND a major collapse (which I do not think will be permitted).
Printer
Bitcoin road to 200kI think this is one of the possible scenarios for bitcoin this cycle. I am not saying is going to happen exactly like this, but i think can be so similar. I think we bottomed and now we can reach $100k in next months before next big correction where everyone will think again "this cycle is end" before really big moves, mania phase and euphoria.
GOLD needs to go back above all time high to be bullish.So a while back i posted gold as a buy..
Now we need to wait for gold to break back above all time high before buying. RN i am not touching gold..Need to see the fed fuck up big time and see signs of stock market crashing before buying into gold..
but i'd definitely buy into gold if it breaks above all time high again..
BTC runs in context of US dollar strengthThe chart speaks for itself - US dollar strength is inversely correlated to BTC price.
While this might not be news to most of us, I find the DXY chart particularly interesting, as it's approaching a critical level. We know the FED will continue at least $120B QE per month until “substantial further progress has been made". More helicopter money stimulus is being debated too - the latest episode in the US political drama. Failure to pass a beefy enough bill before the end of December might collapse the entire financial house of cards, at least that's the common perception. So the printer will keep going, at least for the foreseeable future.
This makes scenario 1 more probable in my mind, sending all inflation hedges to the moon. Recently gold finished a successful retest of previous ATH, so technicals appear to line up very well for this scenario to unfold. If compared to the previous BTC cycle we expect a similar post-ATH euphoria now, BTC price action is also lining up perfectly for the community to profit from the inflation flood.
Could it really be that simple? Everything lining up so obviously in front of our eyes?
The magic of printing money out of thin air, thereby devaluing one's own currency, would naturally force investors to hedge in order to preserve wealth. Whether they intentionally trade the inflation game or not, crypto bros and gals have been and continue to profit in a major way from this practice. Which begs the question - might Satoshi Nakamoto actually be Ben Bernanke? :D
I digress...
What about scenario 2? However unprobable, it wouldn't be optimal for the inflation bet.
Is there anything left that could trigger a global bank run/cash grab, the likes of which even the mighty Federal Reserve would not be able to tame?
Using the money flow as an indicatorI've noticed that it is very hard to predict the market like we used to before FED went overboard on printing more USD.
So I went searching for alternatives & I realised that in order to be a step ahead of the unlimited USD printer it's necessary to have a good prediction for the USD supply.
I use the USDT.D chart because I trade a lot of crypto & it has helped me a lot in predicting the market.
Money doesn't lie as much, things get a lot more clear when you track the way money moves!
I’ve got a FEVER, the only script is more $HPQIve got a hunch that there was a substantial jump in home printer purchases and it’s possibly not baked into the BCBA:HPQ stock price.
This is a “No Look Pass” pass..
1. trends.google.com
it’s Google search trend of the phrase “Home Printer”.. Notice the DOUBLING of searches in March.
2. “Ok, we get it Geno.. Everyone was forced to work from home early March and had to buy all this office sh!t so they could work from home. Why would NYSE:HPQ be a trade?”
Answer: Because it’s the 1st thing i realized i needed.
This is the market share breakdown in the Printer world;
1. HPQ, by and landslide share of 34%.
2. Canon CAJ, 19.5%. They reported on 4/23 and just modestly beat both revenue & earnings, for the first time in a while.
3. Epson, at 17%. It trades under the ticker SEKEY, which is Seiko Epson COR/ADR, it’s a pink sheet stock (think: Wolf of Wall Street hookers), that’s traded in the OTC over the counter market. I’m prohibited from trading OTC, but if you got access, awesome-sauce! 👍
For the HP-izzel though, there's 2 tickers.. HPQ, the computer/printer stock.. Not HPE, Bad Bad Bad.
3. HPQ reports on May 21, in a week.. and they missed pretty bad in Feb (Pre Quarentined to work from home) and lowered their estimates for this current Quarter (the Quarentine Quarter). Its the QQ son!
Canon CAJ, already reported on 4/23 and beat estimates and Epson is over the counter pink sheets.