SPX / H1 : Still waiting for signals to enter...Following on from yesterday's daily alert signaling that I was beginning to search for short entries, I must admit that so far nothing is showing signs of sellers going in...
Feels like the market is dead and wants to wait for 2018 before pricing anything !
Anyway... without signals, no trade. And here neither sinewave or momentum is giving any signs of sellers. The last TP cycle pushed us back to a supports... and a Bull cycles came out.. and managed to push slightly higher... so there's no validation so far..
The more recent cycle is BULL and Momentum signals with an oversold (little red dot) signal. Wich is a confirmation signal.. Basically that means the market is now back to a bullish posture on H1..
So I'm WAITING to get cleaner signals to trigger my shorts.
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Pro-indicators
EURUSD / D1 : Two options with 50-50 oddsWhen this is 50-50 I usually have a close look at Sinewave to see if it can shift the balance.
In our case, the last cycle is a bearish cycle.. It will very likely be broken in both scenarios, but the question is "what will happen when we'll have reached the target" ?
Option 1 will extende over it and start a bull trend out this initial bear cycle (it happens but this is rare)
Option 2 will reject the target and force prices to remain in the range wich will inevitably lead to an extended correction likely to be a "double three" that would directly point prices toward a potential 50% retracement of the very bullish wave that brought us here !
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STOXX / H4 : End of bullish waves, retracement should comme soonSinewave and Momentum are both having hard time to trigger signals here because of ECB press conference stimulus that has driven sharp and faster price movements. Anyway 3641 is a key level that I had on my charts for weeks.
We're testing it and as it corresponds to the final wave of a potential expanding triangle structure, that would be a shame not trade it and share this idea with you !
I'm now short for a correction (SO THIS IS COUNTER TREND and I'm of course doing this with 0,5 leverage and a large stoploss set at 2% risk > 1% capital loss in case of invalidation. This means a stop loss set a 3715 which is much more that required and should leave me out of troubles !).
Target 1 is set to 38% retracement.
Target 2 at 50%.
I don't see this corrections going further that 50% as we had a very bullish structure on the impulse.
Anyway no matter how bullish we were, this was still a first bullish wave... and at this stage shorting can only be considered to pay for future long positions stops ;)
YES I'LL BUY EURO EQUITIES AFTER THAT RETRACEMENT ! (just to be clear..)
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EURJPY / H1 : bear reversal about to happenI just taken that short entry with a very nice sinewave + momentum signal right below yesterday's gap that we reversed and closed below. Today we retrace back to test that gap again. Apparently prices are now rejecting it.
It's time for me to reinforce my short positions with a new entry here, very limited risk as I set my invalidation level slightly above yesterday's highest price.
Target is retracing back to support in two waves, I'll take my profits at the end of wave 3 which should lead us to a 161% extension of A. Stop will be set at BreakEven when reaching the confirmation area.
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NIKKEI / M1 : approaching a massive technical resistanceThis analysis shows that several Elliott wave counts might be about to reach an end point soon (it's monthly based to this could take up to a year or two)
But if we compare this analysis to the one I made on SPX earlier something ticks me up. We seem to be far ahead on nikkei regarding the cycles development.
I'm wondering if the next crisis could come from Japan instead of Europe or China as most investors would bet on nowadays.
Today Nikkei is by far the most bullish index but my analysis tends to say it could also be one the first to reverse for a bearish corrective in two waves.
I'll closely have a look at what prices will do when entering this cluster area slightly above the current prices.
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DXY / M1 : highly probable monthly Elliott market structureWhen I look at the DXY on monthly basis and try to put Elliott count on it this is where I tend to expect.
I think we're on a bullish extended wave (so calls are more favorable).
The current state of that impulse is in corrective wave (4).
The apparent structure of that correction tends to be a divergent triangle.
We would be at the final wave of that triangle (from d to e).
This final subwave looks like an impulse and at this point we would still need to find a 4 point and then push lower again for a final 5th wave.
CONCLUSION, to me it seems like its a bit too early (on monthly basis) to buy dollar, we may require a short term final subwave count before reaching the perfect bullish entry.
I also note that we have the 2015 opening price of the DXY slightly below.
This level also coincide with the triangle a > c trendline...
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AAPL / W1 : Bear again for a trendy 3rd wave countNo need to talk much on this.. we've reached wave 2 point which means that I'm full short now on AAPL and that I will now reinforce on support breakouts. My final maximum target is the big 5% monthly bullish gap showed on the chart. Invalidation if prices manage to break the current market top.
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SPX / M1 : no more room for buyersSome who follow me knows that I've been searching for a top for quite while. I've been taking some stoplosses due to a bad timing. Anyway that never meant that I was bullish ^^
Even though I remind you that the big short top is not nearly here ! I still think that we're reaching a mid term peak here and we'll shortly look forward to support areas.
We've managed to push as high as we could, but we're now facing an nearly impossible to breakout resistance that is the long term trend channel from the previous wave 3.
This wave was our exteded wave which means that the 5th wave cannot breakout above this trend. So basically what that means is that no matter how high we pushed we're about to lose momentum here and most likely fall back to supports to buy the subwave 4 point before jumping in to the big short later on and which will probably also be near the channel's top area.
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GAZ / D1 : Nice end for an intermediate corrective triangleThe current setup of Natural gaz makes me wonder if we're not reaching the end point of a consolidation triangle.
We may have reached the ABCDE pattern's ending and so the prices should then get back to the upside searching for a B>C bull wave before going back down.
I just bought it agressively, waiting for price confirmation to trigger leveraged reinforcements.
Invalidation is clearly if prices break down the A point of this supposed triangle setup.
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DAX / H1 : Reaching end of impulse, soon to retrace.DAX is reaching wave 5 of what seems to be a first bullish impulse. Which means that we should have a deep retracement between 50 to 85% in order to buy again ahead of the trendy wave 3 that should come right after. DAX is definitely bullish so there's no point shorting the corrective with leverage. It's only for experienced traders and in order to pay for the forthcoming call's stops.
I will enter with a signal near the reversal zone identified, or if the price breaks down the trend channel with a candle reversal pattern on the peak.
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EURUSD / H1 : Possible short for a second corrective waveThe current configuration before FED suggest that there could be an interesting short scenario on EUR/USD to retrace further and search for a B wave before eventually buying later on.
Of course this is counter trend, so the position has to be low leveraged and must have a stop loss above previous highs.
For now we can see that the momentum is divergent, it hasn't signaled yet so there is still room for a little upmove towards the highest retracement levels like 76,4%.
Having a signal near this level would be a trigger for me to enter short. On the other side, if the signal doen't show up and the market breaks down the support trendline, I'll enter as well.
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EURJPY / D1 : Possible end of wave 3 to retrace back to 1Of course the projected waves are speculative and requires the prices to react in the spotted zone which a multi wave cluster zone.
If the prices actually blocks there we will then probably have a two wave retracement and the overshoot pattern will very likely form a head a shoulder pattern to extend the correction to lower levels and pbly reach wave 1 overlap before being long again in the trend for a fifth final wave.
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SPX / D1 : consolidation already over ? Not really !Today's surprising rally that followed the weekend with what headlines tried to explain as Korea's redemption and "less expensive" damages from Irma !
Well.. call it however you want to me it fits in two words > stop hunting ! This might be the only actual fuel to this unexepecter price surge that came out of nowhere.
Anyway the right question to ask yourself is not why... it's where ! Where does that lead us ? Are we heading toward new historical highs ? Is this a buy signal ?
I'll try answering those questions with my usual setup !
First, Sinewave : it's showing early REVERSE signal.. ! Don't overestimated this... early signals are just warnings, they can be invalidated as long as they're not validated and trully ploted on the chart. But still.. reverse cycles are very risky to trade against... so bulls needs to be veeeery cautious here.. cause if it actually reverses here it generally means that we'll wrong foot them and go sharply bearish.
Then Momentum : curve is bearish (lower lows and lower highs) so basically supports are less likely to hold than resistance.
Finally the price level : We're now testing a pullback from the broken support trendline plotted from subwave 2-4 bottoms. Broken support is by definition a resistance. On Elliot perspective, all I can forecast is eventually an extended flat correction... with a limit target of 138% retracement of A wave.
Conclusion :
Despite all I can read here and there.. I can't support any bullish scenario. Simply because both Sinewave and Momentum tend to plead for a trap. The price level is still under a resistance trendline. So it's impossible for me to defend market calls ! All I need to short this market is to wait for it to reach momentum overload signaling or to see any candle reversal pattern under the resistance levels identified.
So... I'm already short, I'm not going to re-inforce agressively, I'll simply stay in and wait for a signal confirmation to go fully leveraged. Patience and anticipation... I know what I want to see on charts, if this happens I'll short again, if not I'll trigger stop losses if the market manages to break above the subwave 3-5 resistance trendline. Anyway I think the next few days will be crucials. I'll update the idea whenever I'll have new price infos to help clarifying which way will become the most probable.
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SPX / D1 : Final re-inforcement before big drop or invalidationThis is it, I'm not taking the last short reinforcement here, after shorting the top and the bearish breakdown, this pullback is really unexpected but to me it still looks like a great opportunity to put more money into this thing rather than being scared of bulls taking it over again.
Of course this scenario comes with an invalidation level... and I also gave you my target. In this case Sinewave is totally supporting the short positions, and clearly highlights the end of the bullish trend that happened right after Trump's election.
Those who are familiar with my ideas will notice that there is no elliott count on this one.. just to show you that you can basically use everything to find your support and resistance levels to trade on.. but to me Sinewave will always be the key element with Momentum to confirm !
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DAX / H3 : Ending diagonal to terminate wave corrective C ?Reagarding the current counts, I think the most probable scenario would be an ending diagonal to terminate the corrective wave C. I suggested before this was too early to buy eurozone with a very bearish potential on US equities.
US now tends to validate the bear scenario, and of course EU struggles to hold its supports. Plus Sinewave never showed any bull signals and on the opposite showed sell continuation cycles. All tends to confirm this bearish continuation on DAX. We need further price development to confirm the ending diagonal but that's the early scenario I'm no waiting for.
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USDJPY / M1 : Longterm pleads for a bull trend reversalThe analysis shows off that the long term bear trend of USDJPY 0.07% may have come to an end on this bottom and the reversal time is now triggering.
We may have finished the first wave impulse of this new bullish trend . So we are now retracing to find point 'b'.
This subwave is in-trend and can be bought with low risk. Of course as we're consolidating... wave 'b' can be sold in counter trend.
Which means that buyers need to exit under resistance and can't hold their trades too long...
This analysis suggests that in order to hold longs for long term, this would need to wait for subwave 'c' to be reached.
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USDJPY / M1 : Longterm pleads for a bull trend reversalThe analysis shows off that the long term bear trend of USDJPY may have come to an end on this bottom and the reversal time is now triggering.
We may have finished the first wave impulse of this new bullish trend. So we are now retracing to find point 'b'.
This subwave is in-trend and can be bought with low risk. Of course as we're consolidating... wave 'b' can be sold in counter trend.
Which means that buyers need to exit under resistance and can't hold their trades too long...
This analysis suggests that in order to hold longs for long term, this would need to wait for subwave 'c' to be reached.
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DAX / H4 : Ending Diagonal to terminate this impulse ?Just as the DOW count revealed, the DAX 0.76% may be creating an ending diagonal formation on fifth and final wave of the current count that started upon Trump's election and fueled the price without a single retracement (as 2 & 4 were both flat corrections ).
Anyway we might be reaching a market top as suggested and as we didn't have any retracement and that this wave was basically based on promises that will less likely come afterwards.. I anticipate that we should have a profound 50% retracement of this wave. Maybe more if we have some catalysts in the meantime.
For agressive traders, there is still one subwave count to finish in this possible ending diagonal as subwave are supposed to be in ZigZags. So we have wave A, now retracing to B point that we should reach soon, that leaves us with a C wave to look for before considering agressive shorts. Generally we use the fibo extension of 78,6% of previous wave as target... you have it on the chart !
For less agressive ones, of course waiting for the wedge to break down. Remember that ending diagonal breakouts generally creates strong movements with extended 1st wave impulse as first A retracement wave. So there's plenty of room to go close this Macron gap I guess ! That will be Target 1 for ;)
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GOLD / D1-W1-M1 : MultiTimeFrame Analysis with Elliott+SinewaveTook me quite some time to build this up but the result shows a very clean sceanrio here ! Everything tends to correspond between each different timeframe and so the forecast is even more likely to occur.
It shows that on the biggest timeframe, gold has made it's 5 wave impulse and is now retracing in 2 impulses. The first have been completed and we clearly see it confirmed by multiple timeframe sinewave signals. We're now working on the corrective wave of this rectacement ( the A to B wave ). Which normally plots as ZigZag and tends to be the case here. Looks like we've made the first impulse of our sub ZigZag ... working on the corrective wave (that appears to be a barrier triangle on daily chart ). The next move should be a 3 wave bullish impulse reaching out to 100-127% extension of the previous wave. Completing this will give us our B point of major count that we will the sell for the second corrective wave of the monthly corrective count. It can seem messy... but hold on, zoom in and take the time to read ! You'll have much clearer sight of what would be about to come ;)
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