BTC DOMINANCE- BEARISH AFLife and Trading: Decisions Shape Outcomes
Life can shift dramatically in a single day—either for the better or worse. Everything boils down to the decisions you make, whether in heated moments or calm reflection. When chaos and panic dominate, your best refuge lies in creativity, knowledge and balls.
During the recent shakeout, I stayed silent—not because I lacked an opinion, but because moments like these require clarity. It’s like a car crash—you first ensure your safety before analyzing the damage. So, I distanced myself from the noise and dove deep into the charts.
Key Observations: Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin dominance, a critical indicator during altcoin crashes, was rising but met resistance at significant levels. Bearish arguments at that time included:
Weekly Bearish FVG respected
Daily Bearish FVG respected
Trendline retest confirming the break
Current Bearish Arguments:
PMH & PML respected
PWH & PWL respected
Weekly and Daily Bearish FVG respected
4H swing highs/lows respected
4H Bearish FVG respected
Strategy:
Given these signals, it’s tempting to go all-in on altcoins. However, I anticipate a ranging market until Christmas, followed by a dip below the 50% level—a precursor to a true altcoin bull market.
Be cautious: I expect another shakeout around December 18 or 23, where I plan to take significant positions. Always have a clear entry and exit plan to navigate these volatile waters.
Follow me to stay updated, and remember—this market rewards patience and preparation.
God bless you.
-Jay
Probabilities
Ethereum (ETHUSD) : Time to Position for Profits!Ethereum (ETH/USD) is currently positioned for a bullish breakout, and I am excited to share my analysis with fellow traders.
Bullish Sentiment and Technical Setup
The current price action shows ETH testing the $4,000 resistance level, which, if broken, could trigger a wave of FOMO buying, propelling prices towards $4,500 and beyond. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reflecting strong buying momentum, now is an opportune time to consider long positions.
I will be utilizing probabilities to strategically enter into long trades, focusing on support levels around $3,600 to $3,700 as potential entry points during any pullbacks.
Several fundamental factors are contributing to this bullish outlook:
Institutional Interest: Recent reports indicate that BlackRock has made a significant investment in Ethereum, purchasing over $230 million worth. This institutional backing is a strong signal of confidence in Ethereum’s future.
Market Dynamics: The overall cryptocurrency market is experiencing renewed interest as Bitcoin has surpassed the psychological barrier of $100,000. Historically, Ethereum tends to follow Bitcoin's lead, and this correlation suggests that ETH could also see substantial upward movement.
Technological Advancements: Ethereum's ongoing developments in DeFi and NFT sectors continue to attract users and investors alike. The upcoming upgrades and increased adoption are likely to bolster its price further.
In summary, the combination of technical indicators pointing towards a bullish trend and supportive fundamentals creates a compelling case for trading ETH/USD long.
As we navigate this exciting market landscape, I encourage fellow traders to stay vigilant and consider positioning themselves for potential gains in the coming weeks.
P.S. If you have any questions about how I trade probabilities with the overall market direction, feel free to reach out.
Let's capitalize on this momentum together!
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FANTOM BULLISH-POTENTIAL 6.39RRFantom (FTM): A Bullish Opportunity with Controlled Risk
BINANCE:FTMUSDT
The current price action of Fantom presents an attractive setup for taking calculated risks. Here are the key bullish arguments supporting this perspective:
Previous Monthly Low (PML - November): Disrespected, signaling strength.
Previous Monthly High (PMH): Disrespected, further affirming bullish momentum.
Monthly Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG): Holding so far; confirmation expected by early Sunday morning.
Previous Weekly High (PWH): Disrespected.
Previous Weekly Low (PWL): Disrespected.
Daily Bullish FVG: Being respected, showing demand at this level.
4H Swing High: Disrespected.
4H Swing Low: Disrespected.
Bearish Arguments:
Previous Daily High (PDH): Respected, a minor resistance to watch.
Previous Daily Low (PDL): Respected.
Trade Management:
Stop Loss (SL): $0.84–$0.82
Take Profit (TP): $1.90–$1.88
Entry Zone: $0.9951–$0.9683
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RR): 6.39
I am using Quantfury to manage this trade, a platform I find effective for precise execution.
Final Thoughts: The market appears poised for further upside, but stay disciplined and avoid being influenced by noise. The next five months are crucial for crypto, requiring full focus and adherence to your own strategies. Remember, every lesson comes from experience, not just from external opinions.
Stay patient, trade smart, and blessings to all!
XRPUSD on the Rise: Positioning for Profits with X1X2 AnalysisXRPUSD is currently positioned for a bullish breakout, and I’m excited to share my analysis using the X1X2 methodology to capture potential long opportunities.
In my approach, I will leverage probabilities to strategically get positioned for long entries.
Key Fundamentals Supporting the Bullish Bias
Several fundamental factors are contributing to this bullish outlook:
- Legal Clarity: Recent developments in regulatory clarity surrounding cryptocurrencies are fostering a more favorable environment for XRP, which is crucial as it aims to expand its use case in cross-border payments.
- Increased Adoption: There’s growing interest from institutional investors and partnerships that enhance XRP's utility within the financial ecosystem.
- Market Sentiment: The overall market is experiencing a resurgence, with Bitcoin's recent price action influencing altcoins positively, including XRP.
With the combination of technical analysis and supportive fundamentals, there’s a compelling case for entering long positions.
Let’s stay informed and ready to capitalize on the opportunities ahead!
Feel free to share your thoughts or questions below!
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P.S. If you have any questions about how I trade probabilities with the overall market direction, feel free to reach out.
GBP/USD: Bullish Bias and Strategic PositioningToday, I’m excited to share my analysis on the GBPUSD currency pair, which is currently showing a strong bullish bias.
As we navigate through the market, I will be utilizing probabilities to strategically position myself for long trades.
Current Market Dynamics
The GBP/USD pair has recently shown resilience, bouncing off critical support levels around 1.2670. This rebound suggests a potential bullish reversal, driven by positive sentiment surrounding the UK economy.
Key fundamentals such as the Bank of England's recent decisions to maintain interest rates amidst inflationary pressures signal confidence in economic stability, which supports our bullish outlook.
Global Influences
On the global stage, factors such as a weakening U.S. dollar and improving economic indicators from the UK create a favorable environment for the British Pound. Additionally, geopolitical developments are leaning towards stability, which typically boosts investor confidence in GBP.
Trading Strategy
In this context, I plan to leverage statistical probabilities to identify optimal entry points for long positions. By focusing on key technical indicators, I aim to maximize potential gains while effectively managing risk.
Join me as we explore this exciting opportunity in GBP/USD! Let’s make informed trading decisions together and capitalize on this bullish momentum. Happy trading!
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P.S. If you have any questions about how I trade probabilities with the overall market direction, feel free to reach out.
Bearish Signals: Time to Short ADAUSDAs I prepare to share my bearish trade idea for ADAUSD, here are key trends that support my outlook:
- Market Sentiment: Cardano (ADA) has faced a significant downturn, losing nearly 13% this week and about 41% year-to-date. This reflects growing concerns among investors and a lack of bullish momentum.
- Technical Indicators: A bearish divergence between ADA's price and daily active addresses suggests weakening demand, indicating potential further declines.
- Price Action: ADA is trading below crucial moving averages (20-day and 50-day), trapped in a declining channel. This reinforces the bearish sentiment as it approaches the lower boundary.
In my trading strategy, I focus on probabilities to position myself for short trades on ADAUSD.
In summary, by leveraging probabilities alongside market trends, I aim to strategically position myself for potential declines in ADAUSD.
This disciplined approach not only enhances my trading strategy but also aligns perfectly with the current bearish environment.
Join me as we navigate this market together!
P.S. If you have any questions about how I trade probabilities with the overall market direction, feel free to reach out.
4H:https://www.tradingview.com/x/IFRT8mYP/
Join My Bullish EUR/GBP Journey!Hey Traders! Today, I'm excited to share my bullish trade idea on the EUR/GBP currency pair. As we navigate through the current market dynamics, I believe there are several key fundamentals supporting this upward bias.
Current Market Fundamentals
- Economic Indicators: The upcoming release of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) retail sales data is anticipated to show positive trends, which could strengthen the GBP. A robust consumer spending report can create a favorable environment for the Euro to gain against the Pound.
- Market Sentiment: Recent bullish candlestick patterns on the H4 chart suggest a potential reversal in the EUR/GBP pair. The price is currently hovering near the middle Bollinger Band, indicating a possible breakout.
- Technical Setup: The pair is trading between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting consolidation with potential for upward movement. This technical setup aligns with my bullish sentiment.
Utilizing Probabilities for Positioning
In my trading strategy, I emphasize the importance of probabilities to make informed decisions. Here’s why:
- Statistical Edge: By analyzing historical price movements and current market conditions, I can identify patterns that have a higher likelihood of repeating. This statistical approach helps me gauge potential outcomes more effectively.
- Risk Management: Using probabilities allows me to set realistic targets and stop-loss levels, ensuring that I manage risk while maximizing potential gains. For instance, if historical data shows a 70% success rate for bullish movements after similar setups, I can confidently position myself for long trades.
- Adaptability: Markets are dynamic; therefore, employing a probabilistic mindset enables me to adapt my strategy based on real-time data and changing conditions. This flexibility is crucial in maintaining an edge in trading.
Conclusion
With a bullish bias on EUR/GBP backed by solid fundamentals and a robust technical setup, I am ready to position myself for long trades using probabilities as my guiding principle.
Let’s keep an eye on the upcoming economic data releases and market movements that could further validate this trade idea.
Feel free to share your thoughts or any questions you may have! Happy trading!
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P.S. If you have any questions about how I trade probabilities with the overall market direction, feel free to reach out.
Going Long on ETH: Strong Bullish Signals!Ethereum (ETH) is currently experiencing a bullish trend, supported by several key fundamentals:
Global Adoption and Institutional Interest
The cryptocurrency market, particularly Ethereum, is seeing increased adoption and institutional interest. Major financial institutions and corporations are exploring blockchain technology and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, many of which are built on the Ethereum network.
Technological Advancements
Ethereum's ongoing upgrades and improvements, including the transition to Ethereum 2.0, are enhancing its scalability and efficiency. These developments are attracting more developers and users to the platform, potentially driving up demand for ETH.
Market Sentiment
Recent market analysis suggests a positive outlook for Ethereum, with some experts predicting significant growth potential. The breaking out of key resistance levels has fueled optimism among traders and investors.
Utilizing Probabilities for Long Positions
I'm employing probability-based strategies to enter long positions on ETHUSD.
By incorporating probability analysis into my trading approach, I aim to capitalize on Ethereum's bullish fundamentals while maintaining a structured and disciplined trading strategy.
Let's dive in!
2W:https://www.tradingview.com/x/t6j2hT4t/
2H:https://www.tradingview.com/x/prwKqAhU/
High-Probability SWI20 Longs with 57.78% Achieving TPI am adopting a probabilistic approach to my trading strategy based on historical and statistical data.
This method allows me to identify patterns and trends that have proven effective in the past, enabling me to make informed decisions about entering long positions.
By applying mathematical rules derived from historical performance, I can assess the likelihood of price movements and manage risk effectively.
This systematic approach helps to minimize emotional decision-making and enhances the potential for successful trades.
Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Bias:
- Swiss Economic Resilience: Despite global economic challenges, Swiss equities are showing signs of recovery, with the Swiss SMI index rising 2% this year, indicating a potential bullish trend ahead.
- Central Bank Policies: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has indicated a favorable inflation outlook, which could lead to supportive monetary policies that benefit the stock market.
- Currency Dynamics: The recent correction in the Swiss franc may ease pressure on exporters, potentially leading to improved earnings for companies within the index.
- Investment Inflows: Swiss-domiciled funds have recorded their highest net inflows since 2022, reflecting growing investor confidence in the Swiss market.
These factors collectively support a bullish outlook for the Switzerland 20 Index, aligning with my trading strategy.
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Short Position on EURCAD: Strong Potential for TP SuccessKey Fundamentals Supporting a Bearish Bias:
- Eurozone Struggles: Recent economic reports indicate that the Eurozone is facing challenges, including sluggish growth and rising inflation. This could weaken the Euro as investors lose confidence.
- Interest Rate Outlook: The European Central Bank is taking a cautious stance on interest rates, while the Bank of Canada is likely to raise rates. This contrast could strengthen the Canadian Dollar against the Euro.
- Geopolitical Pressures: Ongoing issues in Europe, such as energy crises and trade disruptions, are creating uncertainty. This instability can further drag down the Euro's value relative to the CAD.
I'm focusing on short positions for EURCAD by using probabilities derived from historical data. By analyzing past trends and applying straightforward mathematical rules, I can spot high-probability trading opportunities.
This strategy helps me stay disciplined and make informed decisions, reducing emotional trading and increasing my chances of success.
Let's dive into the multiple timeframe top-down analysis together:
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My Bullish GBP/USD Strategy Using X1X2!You have no idea how many opportunities are there when you're simply following "X1X2"!
I invite you to engage with me in this analysis!
Current Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Bias on GBP/USD:
1. Positive UK Economic Data: Recent reports indicate that the UK's GDP expanded by 0.2% in August, aligning with analyst expectations. Additionally, industrial production and manufacturing have shown growth, which supports the Pound's strength against the Dollar.
2. Diminishing US Dollar Strength: The US Dollar has faced selling pressure, particularly in light of recent mixed macroeconomic data. A softening inflation rate and rising initial jobless claims have raised concerns about the US economy, contributing to a bullish outlook for GBP/USD.
3. Market Sentiment Shift: An improving risk mood among investors has led to optimism regarding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. This sentiment has weakened the Dollar, allowing GBP/USD to gain traction above key support levels.
Utilizing Probabilities in My Swing Trading Strategy:
In my trading approach, I employ a system known as X1X2, which focuses on probabilities to determine optimal entry points for long positions in GBP/USD.
In conclusion, my bullish bias on GBP/USD is supported by favorable economic indicators from the UK and weakening US economic data. By leveraging probabilities through my X1X2 system, I aim to position myself effectively for potential long trades in this pair.
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ETHUSD: Bullish Bias with 58.65% Probability of Hitting TP1I'm feeling bullish on ETHUSD and looking to take some long positions.
My approach is all about using probabilities based on solid math and historical data from my charts.
Why probabilities?
They help me make smarter decisions by showing how often certain price levels have been reached in the past. This gives me a clearer idea of where I might want to enter and exit trades.
By analyzing past price movements, I can build my confidence in this trade and keep emotions in check.
With a 58.65% probability of hitting TP1, this setup looks like a great opportunity to ride the potential upward movement in Ethereum!
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for more information check out my BIO!
USOIL: Multi-Timeframe Analysis | Strong Setup FormingI've been looking at various markets recently, and USOIL really stood out to me. I want to share how I analyze markets using a mechanical top-down approach across all timeframes to form my trading bias.
Top-Down Analysis:
This method is crucial in my trading strategy. It helps me stay objective by focusing on what the market is indicating regarding trends and key levels, rather than letting my personal opinions cloud my judgment.
By adopting a systematic approach, I've been able to reduce doubts and fears in my trading decisions.
Now, let's dive into the top-down analysis process.
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Trade Idea for BTCUSDMy sentiment about BTCUSD is firmly bullish.
I plan to utilize probabilities to strategically position myself into long positions. This approach allows me to leverage statistical analysis and market behavior to enhance my trading decisions.
Several key fundamentals are currently influencing the market in a direction that aligns with my bullish bias on BTCUSD:
Institutional Adoption: There has been a notable increase in institutional interest in Bitcoin, with major firms investing heavily. This trend suggests growing confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term asset.
Economic Uncertainty: Global economic conditions remain volatile, leading many investors to seek alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
Technological Advancements: Innovations in blockchain technology and increased acceptance of cryptocurrencies for transactions are contributing to a more robust ecosystem, enhancing Bitcoin's utility and attractiveness.
Conclusion
In summary, my bullish stance on BTCUSD is supported by both statistical probabilities and current global fundamentals. By strategically using probabilities, I aim to position myself advantageously in the market. This method not only enhances my trading strategy but also aligns with broader economic trends that favor the growth of Bitcoin.
Let’s dive into the top-down analysis together! Your thoughts and feedback are always welcome!
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Why EURUSD is Plummeting and How You Can Take Advantage of ItI am adopting a bearish bias on EUR/USD and will leverage probabilities derived from statistical and historical data to position myself for short trades.
By analyzing past market trends and current economic indicators, I aim to make informed decisions that enhance my trading success.
Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bearish Outlook:
- Interest Rate Differentials: The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to maintain higher interest rates, which strengthens the USD against the EUR, especially as the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider rate cuts in response to economic challenges.
- Economic Performance: Recent economic data indicates that the Eurozone is facing significant headwinds, with disappointing growth figures that negatively impact market sentiment.
- Market Sentiment: Current market sentiment leans bearish towards the euro, with many traders already positioned short. This collective positioning could lead to further downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
These elements provide a solid foundation for my bearish outlook, making it an opportune moment to enter short positions.
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If you require additional clarification, or wish to share your thoughts, don’t hesitate to drop a comment below!
Bullish Outlook on XRPUSDKey Reasons for a Bullish Bias:
1. Positive Market Sentiment: XRP has recently broken through an important resistance level, which shows that traders are feeling optimistic about its future.
2. Bullish Technical Patterns: An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern has formed, suggesting that XRP might be ready for a price increase.
3. Improving Regulations: Recent developments in cryptocurrency regulations are becoming more favorable, which could attract more institutional investors to XRP.
I plan to use probabilities based on historical data and the X1X2 methodology to enter long positions in XRP. Here’s why:
- Learning from the Past: By looking at past price movements and historical data of XRP, I can spot biases that might help predict future behavior.
- X1X2 Methodology: This method helps me identify key price levels to enter and exit trades, making my strategy more focused.
- Smart Risk Management: By using probabilities, I can set stop-loss orders at strategic points, reducing my risk and making more informed decisions.
In summary, with a positive market outlook and a solid trading strategy based on historical data and mathematical rules, I’m confident in taking long positions in XRPUSD.
Traders, if you found this idea helpful or have your own thoughts on it, please share in the comments. I’d love to hear from you!
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LTCUSD: Strong Bullish Momentum with 68.87% Probability for TP1!I’m optimistic about Litecoin (LTCUSD) right now, and here are some compelling reasons to consider this trade:
- Market Recovery: The overall cryptocurrency market is bouncing back, with many coins, including Litecoin, showing positive price movements after recent dips.
- Growing Adoption: More people and businesses are starting to use cryptocurrencies for transactions, which could increase demand for Litecoin.
- Tech Improvements: Litecoin is undergoing updates that make it more efficient and user-friendly, attracting more interest.
- Positive Sentiment: Many analysts are optimistic about the future of cryptocurrencies, suggesting that prices could continue to rise.
To get positioned for long trades on LTCUSD, I rely on probabilities based on historical data in a mechanical trading system.
In short, my bullish outlook on LTCUSD is supported by strong market fundamentals, and by using probabilities from historical data, I aim to position myself effectively for potential long trades.
Please share your ideas and charts in the comments section below!
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USOIL: Bullish Fundamentals and 61.60% Probability for LongsKey Fundamentals
- Decreased OPEC Exports: Recent reports indicate a decline in crude oil exports from OPEC and Russia, tightening the market as refinery runs ramp up for seasonal demand. This reduction in supply is likely to exert upward pressure on prices2.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, continue to add a risk premium to oil prices. Traders are increasingly factoring these uncertainties into their market strategies2.
- Rising Demand: With the U.S. economy showing signs of recovery and better-than-expected market fundamentals, demand for oil is anticipated to rise, further supporting higher prices12.
- Technical Indicators: Current market sentiment shows USOIL trading above its pivot point of $74.80, with support levels around $74.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56.16, indicating a healthy trend without being overbought1.
I'm employing a probability-based strategy to position myself for long trades in USOIL.
By incorporating these fundamentals and probability analysis into my trading approach, I aim to leverage the current bullish sentiment in USOIL effectively.
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NZDUSD: Bullish Sentiment Backed by Math and History!Why Use Probabilities?
In trading, probabilities help us make informed decisions based on mathematical rules and historical data. By analyzing past price movements and market behavior, we can identify patterns that suggest potential future outcomes.
This approach allows us to assess the probability of reaching Take Profit Levels.
Utilizing probabilities means I'm not just guessing; I'm relying on statistical evidence to position myself effectively in the market. This strategy helps manage risk and increases confidence in my trades, making it easier to navigate the uncertainties of forex trading.
Let's dive in:
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Why I’m Betting Bearish on GBPNZD: Key Market Drivers ExplainedAs I prepare to share my trade idea for GBPNZD, my overall bias is bearish. Here are some key fundamentals currently influencing this outlook:
1. UK Economic Slowdown: The UK is facing economic challenges, with high inflation and downgraded growth forecasts. This situation tends to weaken the British Pound against other currencies, including the New Zealand Dollar.
2. RBNZ's Hawkish Stance: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to maintain a strong monetary policy, focusing on controlling inflation. This contrasts sharply with the UK's more cautious approach, which supports a stronger NZD.
3. Seasonal Trends: Historically, GBPNZD has shown a bearish trend from mid-August through December. This seasonal behavior suggests that now is an opportune time to consider short positions.
In my trading strategy for GBPNZD, I rely on probabilities to guide my decisions for entering short positions.
In summary, by leveraging probabilities based on historical data and current market fundamentals, I aim to position myself advantageously for short trades on GBPNZD.
This disciplined approach aligns with my bearish outlook and enhances my trading effectiveness.
I look forward to sharing my journey in this trade and welcome any thoughts or feedback!
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Why I'm Going Short on USDCAD: Analyzing Market ConditionsKey Reasons for a Bearish Outlook
1. Economic Differences: The U.S. economy is doing well, showing strong growth, while Canada’s economy is struggling. This usually strengthens the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar.
2. Oil Prices: Canada’s currency is closely tied to oil prices. If oil prices stabilize or drop, it could weaken the Canadian dollar further, especially since Canada’s economy isn’t performing well.
3. Central Bank Policies: The U.S. Federal Reserve might lower interest rates, which could attract more investment into the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is likely to stay cautious due to weak economic data.
Given these factors, I believe there’s a good chance for USDCAD to move lower. I’ll be using probabilities to guide my short positions and manage risk effectively.
Feel free to share your thoughts and ideas in the comments below!
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On the 12M timeframe, there is insufficient data available. Therefore, we will move to lower monthly timeframes to identify a valid range and look for FB mitigation.
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Fundamentals Favoring a Bullish USDJPY:What Traders Need to KnowIn today's trading environment, the USD/JPY currency pair presents a bullish opportunity. Here are some key fundamentals that support this bias, along with an explanation of utilizing probabilities for positioning long trades.
Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Bias on USD/JPY
1. Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Monetary Policy: The BoJ has maintained its accommodative monetary policy, refraining from committing to predefined rate hikes for the remainder of the year. This stance is likely to weaken the Japanese Yen against the U.S. Dollar as traders anticipate continued divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the BoJ.
2. U.S. Economic Growth: Recent data indicates a pickup in U.S. economic growth without significant inflationary pressures. This environment supports a stronger U.S. Dollar as it suggests that the Federal Reserve may not need to cut rates aggressively, contrary to some market expectations.
3. Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment in the forex market is leaning towards a bullish outlook for the U.S. Dollar, particularly against currencies like the Yen, which is under pressure due to Japan's economic conditions and the BoJ's policies.
Utilizing Probabilities for Long Positions in USD/JPY
When trading, I prioritize using probabilities to enhance my decision-making process.
In conclusion, by focusing on probabilities and key fundamental indicators, I am strategically positioning myself for potential long trades in USD/JPY.
This method not only enhances my trading confidence but also provides a structured approach to navigating market volatility effectively.
Let's dive into my comprehensive top-down analysis together:
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