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Probabilities

High-Probability SWI20 Longs with 57.78% Achieving TPI am adopting a probabilistic approach to my trading strategy based on historical and statistical data. This method allows me to identify patterns and trends that have proven effective in the past, enabling me to make informed decisions about entering long positions. By applying mathematical rules derived from historical performance, I can assess the likelihood of price movements and manage risk effectively. This systematic approach helps to minimize emotional decision-making and enhances the potential for successful trades. Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Bias: - Swiss Economic Resilience: Despite global economic challenges, Swiss equities are showing signs of recovery, with the Swiss SMI index rising 2% this year, indicating a potential bullish trend ahead. - Central Bank Policies: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has indicated a favorable inflation outlook, which could lead to supportive monetary policies that benefit the stock market. - Currency Dynamics: The recent correction in the Swiss franc may ease pressure on exporters, potentially leading to improved earnings for companies within the index. - Investment Inflows: Swiss-domiciled funds have recorded their highest net inflows since 2022, reflecting growing investor confidence in the Swiss market. These factors collectively support a bullish outlook for the Switzerland 20 Index, aligning with my trading strategy. 2W: HOURLY ENTRY:
EIGHTCAP:SWI20Long
by Jasminex1x2
Short Position on EURCAD: Strong Potential for TP SuccessKey Fundamentals Supporting a Bearish Bias: - Eurozone Struggles: Recent economic reports indicate that the Eurozone is facing challenges, including sluggish growth and rising inflation. This could weaken the Euro as investors lose confidence. - Interest Rate Outlook: The European Central Bank is taking a cautious stance on interest rates, while the Bank of Canada is likely to raise rates. This contrast could strengthen the Canadian Dollar against the Euro. - Geopolitical Pressures: Ongoing issues in Europe, such as energy crises and trade disruptions, are creating uncertainty. This instability can further drag down the Euro's value relative to the CAD. I'm focusing on short positions for EURCAD by using probabilities derived from historical data. By analyzing past trends and applying straightforward mathematical rules, I can spot high-probability trading opportunities. This strategy helps me stay disciplined and make informed decisions, reducing emotional trading and increasing my chances of success. Let's dive into the multiple timeframe top-down analysis together: 12M: 1D: Hourly Entry:
Short
by Jasminex1x2
2
My Bullish GBP/USD Strategy Using X1X2!You have no idea how many opportunities are there when you're simply following "X1X2"! I invite you to engage with me in this analysis! Current Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Bias on GBP/USD: 1. Positive UK Economic Data: Recent reports indicate that the UK's GDP expanded by 0.2% in August, aligning with analyst expectations. Additionally, industrial production and manufacturing have shown growth, which supports the Pound's strength against the Dollar. 2. Diminishing US Dollar Strength: The US Dollar has faced selling pressure, particularly in light of recent mixed macroeconomic data. A softening inflation rate and rising initial jobless claims have raised concerns about the US economy, contributing to a bullish outlook for GBP/USD. 3. Market Sentiment Shift: An improving risk mood among investors has led to optimism regarding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. This sentiment has weakened the Dollar, allowing GBP/USD to gain traction above key support levels. Utilizing Probabilities in My Swing Trading Strategy: In my trading approach, I employ a system known as X1X2, which focuses on probabilities to determine optimal entry points for long positions in GBP/USD. In conclusion, my bullish bias on GBP/USD is supported by favorable economic indicators from the UK and weakening US economic data. By leveraging probabilities through my X1X2 system, I aim to position myself effectively for potential long trades in this pair. 1W: 3H:
Long
by Jasminex1x2
ETHUSD: Bullish Bias with 58.65% Probability of Hitting TP1I'm feeling bullish on ETHUSD and looking to take some long positions. My approach is all about using probabilities based on solid math and historical data from my charts. Why probabilities? They help me make smarter decisions by showing how often certain price levels have been reached in the past. This gives me a clearer idea of where I might want to enter and exit trades. By analyzing past price movements, I can build my confidence in this trade and keep emotions in check. With a 58.65% probability of hitting TP1, this setup looks like a great opportunity to ride the potential upward movement in Ethereum! 12M: 2W: 1H: for more information check out my BIO!
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
1
USOIL: Multi-Timeframe Analysis | Strong Setup FormingI've been looking at various markets recently, and USOIL really stood out to me. I want to share how I analyze markets using a mechanical top-down approach across all timeframes to form my trading bias. Top-Down Analysis: This method is crucial in my trading strategy. It helps me stay objective by focusing on what the market is indicating regarding trends and key levels, rather than letting my personal opinions cloud my judgment. By adopting a systematic approach, I've been able to reduce doubts and fears in my trading decisions. Now, let's dive into the top-down analysis process. 12M: 2W: 6H:
TVC:USOILLong
by Jasminex1x2
2
Trade Idea for BTCUSDMy sentiment about BTCUSD is firmly bullish. I plan to utilize probabilities to strategically position myself into long positions. This approach allows me to leverage statistical analysis and market behavior to enhance my trading decisions. Several key fundamentals are currently influencing the market in a direction that aligns with my bullish bias on BTCUSD: Institutional Adoption: There has been a notable increase in institutional interest in Bitcoin, with major firms investing heavily. This trend suggests growing confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term asset. Economic Uncertainty: Global economic conditions remain volatile, leading many investors to seek alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Technological Advancements: Innovations in blockchain technology and increased acceptance of cryptocurrencies for transactions are contributing to a more robust ecosystem, enhancing Bitcoin's utility and attractiveness. Conclusion In summary, my bullish stance on BTCUSD is supported by both statistical probabilities and current global fundamentals. By strategically using probabilities, I aim to position myself advantageously in the market. This method not only enhances my trading strategy but also aligns with broader economic trends that favor the growth of Bitcoin. Let’s dive into the top-down analysis together! Your thoughts and feedback are always welcome! 1D: Hourly Timeframes: If you found this analysis useful, please boost and comment! Your support helps us all grow!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
2
Why EURUSD is Plummeting and How You Can Take Advantage of ItI am adopting a bearish bias on EUR/USD and will leverage probabilities derived from statistical and historical data to position myself for short trades. By analyzing past market trends and current economic indicators, I aim to make informed decisions that enhance my trading success. Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bearish Outlook: - Interest Rate Differentials: The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to maintain higher interest rates, which strengthens the USD against the EUR, especially as the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider rate cuts in response to economic challenges. - Economic Performance: Recent economic data indicates that the Eurozone is facing significant headwinds, with disappointing growth figures that negatively impact market sentiment. - Market Sentiment: Current market sentiment leans bearish towards the euro, with many traders already positioned short. This collective positioning could lead to further downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. These elements provide a solid foundation for my bearish outlook, making it an opportune moment to enter short positions. 1W: HOURLY ENTRY: If you require additional clarification, or wish to share your thoughts, don’t hesitate to drop a comment below!
Short
by Jasminex1x2
1
Bullish Outlook on XRPUSDKey Reasons for a Bullish Bias: 1. Positive Market Sentiment: XRP has recently broken through an important resistance level, which shows that traders are feeling optimistic about its future. 2. Bullish Technical Patterns: An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern has formed, suggesting that XRP might be ready for a price increase. 3. Improving Regulations: Recent developments in cryptocurrency regulations are becoming more favorable, which could attract more institutional investors to XRP. I plan to use probabilities based on historical data and the X1X2 methodology to enter long positions in XRP. Here’s why: - Learning from the Past: By looking at past price movements and historical data of XRP, I can spot biases that might help predict future behavior. - X1X2 Methodology: This method helps me identify key price levels to enter and exit trades, making my strategy more focused. - Smart Risk Management: By using probabilities, I can set stop-loss orders at strategic points, reducing my risk and making more informed decisions. In summary, with a positive market outlook and a solid trading strategy based on historical data and mathematical rules, I’m confident in taking long positions in XRPUSD. Traders, if you found this idea helpful or have your own thoughts on it, please share in the comments. I’d love to hear from you! 12M: 2W: 1H:
CRYPTO:XRPUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
1
LTCUSD: Strong Bullish Momentum with 68.87% Probability for TP1!I’m optimistic about Litecoin (LTCUSD) right now, and here are some compelling reasons to consider this trade: - Market Recovery: The overall cryptocurrency market is bouncing back, with many coins, including Litecoin, showing positive price movements after recent dips. - Growing Adoption: More people and businesses are starting to use cryptocurrencies for transactions, which could increase demand for Litecoin. - Tech Improvements: Litecoin is undergoing updates that make it more efficient and user-friendly, attracting more interest. - Positive Sentiment: Many analysts are optimistic about the future of cryptocurrencies, suggesting that prices could continue to rise. To get positioned for long trades on LTCUSD, I rely on probabilities based on historical data in a mechanical trading system. In short, my bullish outlook on LTCUSD is supported by strong market fundamentals, and by using probabilities from historical data, I aim to position myself effectively for potential long trades. Please share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! 12M: 2W: 6H:
CRYPTO:LTCUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
2
USOIL: Bullish Fundamentals and 61.60% Probability for LongsKey Fundamentals - Decreased OPEC Exports: Recent reports indicate a decline in crude oil exports from OPEC and Russia, tightening the market as refinery runs ramp up for seasonal demand. This reduction in supply is likely to exert upward pressure on prices2. - Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, continue to add a risk premium to oil prices. Traders are increasingly factoring these uncertainties into their market strategies2. - Rising Demand: With the U.S. economy showing signs of recovery and better-than-expected market fundamentals, demand for oil is anticipated to rise, further supporting higher prices12. - Technical Indicators: Current market sentiment shows USOIL trading above its pivot point of $74.80, with support levels around $74.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56.16, indicating a healthy trend without being overbought1. I'm employing a probability-based strategy to position myself for long trades in USOIL. By incorporating these fundamentals and probability analysis into my trading approach, I aim to leverage the current bullish sentiment in USOIL effectively. 12M: 2W: Hourly TFs:
TVC:USOILLong
by Jasminex1x2
NZDUSD: Bullish Sentiment Backed by Math and History!Why Use Probabilities? In trading, probabilities help us make informed decisions based on mathematical rules and historical data. By analyzing past price movements and market behavior, we can identify patterns that suggest potential future outcomes. This approach allows us to assess the probability of reaching Take Profit Levels. Utilizing probabilities means I'm not just guessing; I'm relying on statistical evidence to position myself effectively in the market. This strategy helps manage risk and increases confidence in my trades, making it easier to navigate the uncertainties of forex trading. Let's dive in: 12M: 2W: 6H:
Long
by Jasminex1x2
1
Going Long on ETH: Strong Bullish Signals!Ethereum (ETH) is currently experiencing a bullish trend, supported by several key fundamentals: Global Adoption and Institutional Interest The cryptocurrency market, particularly Ethereum, is seeing increased adoption and institutional interest. Major financial institutions and corporations are exploring blockchain technology and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, many of which are built on the Ethereum network. Technological Advancements Ethereum's ongoing upgrades and improvements, including the transition to Ethereum 2.0, are enhancing its scalability and efficiency. These developments are attracting more developers and users to the platform, potentially driving up demand for ETH. Market Sentiment Recent market analysis suggests a positive outlook for Ethereum, with some experts predicting significant growth potential. The breaking out of key resistance levels has fueled optimism among traders and investors. Utilizing Probabilities for Long Positions I'm employing probability-based strategies to enter long positions on ETHUSD.  By incorporating probability analysis into my trading approach, I aim to capitalize on Ethereum's bullish fundamentals while maintaining a structured and disciplined trading strategy. Let's dive in! 2W:https://www.tradingview.com/x/t6j2hT4t/ 2H:https://www.tradingview.com/x/prwKqAhU/
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
Why I’m Betting Bearish on GBPNZD: Key Market Drivers ExplainedAs I prepare to share my trade idea for GBPNZD, my overall bias is bearish. Here are some key fundamentals currently influencing this outlook: 1. UK Economic Slowdown: The UK is facing economic challenges, with high inflation and downgraded growth forecasts. This situation tends to weaken the British Pound against other currencies, including the New Zealand Dollar. 2. RBNZ's Hawkish Stance: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to maintain a strong monetary policy, focusing on controlling inflation. This contrasts sharply with the UK's more cautious approach, which supports a stronger NZD. 3. Seasonal Trends: Historically, GBPNZD has shown a bearish trend from mid-August through December. This seasonal behavior suggests that now is an opportune time to consider short positions. In my trading strategy for GBPNZD, I rely on probabilities to guide my decisions for entering short positions. In summary, by leveraging probabilities based on historical data and current market fundamentals, I aim to position myself advantageously for short trades on GBPNZD. This disciplined approach aligns with my bearish outlook and enhances my trading effectiveness. I look forward to sharing my journey in this trade and welcome any thoughts or feedback! 2W: Hourly TF:
Short
by Jasminex1x2
Why I'm Going Short on USDCAD: Analyzing Market ConditionsKey Reasons for a Bearish Outlook 1. Economic Differences: The U.S. economy is doing well, showing strong growth, while Canada’s economy is struggling. This usually strengthens the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar. 2. Oil Prices: Canada’s currency is closely tied to oil prices. If oil prices stabilize or drop, it could weaken the Canadian dollar further, especially since Canada’s economy isn’t performing well. 3. Central Bank Policies: The U.S. Federal Reserve might lower interest rates, which could attract more investment into the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is likely to stay cautious due to weak economic data. Given these factors, I believe there’s a good chance for USDCAD to move lower. I’ll be using probabilities to guide my short positions and manage risk effectively. Feel free to share your thoughts and ideas in the comments below! 12M: On the 12M timeframe, there is insufficient data available. Therefore, we will move to lower monthly timeframes to identify a valid range and look for FB mitigation. 1M: 1D: 1H:
Short
by Jasminex1x2
Fundamentals Favoring a Bullish USDJPY:What Traders Need to KnowIn today's trading environment, the USD/JPY currency pair presents a bullish opportunity. Here are some key fundamentals that support this bias, along with an explanation of utilizing probabilities for positioning long trades. Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Bias on USD/JPY 1. Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Monetary Policy: The BoJ has maintained its accommodative monetary policy, refraining from committing to predefined rate hikes for the remainder of the year. This stance is likely to weaken the Japanese Yen against the U.S. Dollar as traders anticipate continued divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the BoJ. 2. U.S. Economic Growth: Recent data indicates a pickup in U.S. economic growth without significant inflationary pressures. This environment supports a stronger U.S. Dollar as it suggests that the Federal Reserve may not need to cut rates aggressively, contrary to some market expectations. 3. Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment in the forex market is leaning towards a bullish outlook for the U.S. Dollar, particularly against currencies like the Yen, which is under pressure due to Japan's economic conditions and the BoJ's policies. Utilizing Probabilities for Long Positions in USD/JPY When trading, I prioritize using probabilities to enhance my decision-making process. In conclusion, by focusing on probabilities and key fundamental indicators, I am strategically positioning myself for potential long trades in USD/JPY. This method not only enhances my trading confidence but also provides a structured approach to navigating market volatility effectively. Let's dive into my comprehensive top-down analysis together: 12M: 2W: 1H:
Long
by Jasminex1x2
XRPUSD: Bullish Setup AheadAs I prepare to share my bullish trade idea for XRPUSD on TradingView, several key global fundamentals align with my positive outlook. Here are a few significant factors to consider: 1. Regulatory Clarity: Recent developments in cryptocurrency regulation, particularly favorable rulings for Ripple Labs, have boosted market confidence. This clarity is essential for institutional investment and long-term growth in the crypto space. 2. Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has shifted positively, with many traders anticipating a bullish trend. Indicators such as the MACD and Stochastic Oscillator suggest potential upward momentum, reflecting a growing interest in XRP as a viable investment option. 3. Technical Analysis: Current technical indicators show that XRP is poised for significant moves. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a neutral to slightly bullish zone, indicating room for further upside before reaching overbought conditions. In my trading strategy, I will utilize probabilities to position myself for long trades in XRPUSD. Share Your Thoughts in the Comments Below! 12M: 2W: 4H:
CRYPTO:XRPUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
EURCAD SHORT EURCAD Set-Up Bearish Arguments: Monthly PCH is being respected Monthly Bearish FVG being respected Monthly swing high has been swept Weekly swing high is being respected Daily Bearish FVG is being respected Daily swing high is being respected 4H swing high is being respected Bullish Arguments: Weekly swing low is being disrespected Daily swing low being respected so far 4H Bullish FVG being respected 4H swing high being respected As observed, the bearish probability is around 70%, while bullish odds stand at 30%. For this reason, risk management is crucial. Trade Management: Stop-loss placed at the short-term high. First TP set at SellStop. Once this level is reached, move the SL to break-even (BE) and hold until the final target is reached. Risk-to-Reward (RR): 2.45 Risk: 2%
Short
by Jaytradermb
61.69% Probability for Bullish USOIL TP!Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Outlook: - OPEC+ Production Cuts: OPEC+ has implemented production cuts to stabilize oil prices, which can lead to a tighter supply and potentially higher prices for crude oil. - Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly in oil-producing regions, can disrupt supply chains, leading to increased prices as markets react to potential shortages. - Economic Recovery Signals: As global economies continue to recover from the pandemic, demand for oil is expected to rise, further supporting bullish sentiment in the market. By combining a bullish bias with a probabilistic approach to trading, I aim to position myself advantageously in the market while managing risks effectively. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below! 2W: 2H:
TVC:USOILLong
by Jasminex1x2
NVIDIA (NVDA) - Bullish Momentum Fueled by AI RevolutionKey Fundamentals Supporting Bullish Bias: 1. Surging demand for AI chips driving record-breaking revenue growth 2. Launch of next-gen Blackwell architecture expected to outperform current offerings 3. Expanding market share in data center and cloud computing sectors 4. Strong cash flow and $50 billion share buyback program announced Utilizing Probabilities for Long Positions: As a trader, I'm leveraging probabilistic analysis to optimize my long entries on NVIDIA. By combining fundamental analysis with probabilistic technical analysis, I aim to capitalize on NVIDIA's bullish potential while managing risk effectively. 12M: 2W: 1H: What's your take on using probabilities in trading? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below! Let's discuss how this approach can enhance our trading strategies. Have a perfect trading week! 🚀
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Jasminex1x2
EUR/USD Bearish Outlook: Boost Your Trading EdgeKey Fundamentals Impacting EUR/USD: - Economic Slowdown in Europe: Recent data suggests that the Eurozone is facing economic challenges, including declining manufacturing output and rising unemployment rates, which could weaken the euro against the dollar. - Strengthening US Dollar: The Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation is bolstering the US dollar, making it more attractive to investors. - Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly in Eastern Europe, are adding uncertainty to the euro's stability, further supporting a bearish outlook. In my trading strategy for EUR/USD, I am focusing on probabilities to guide my decision-making process. Take a look at these analyses to see the details behind this trade idea. 1W: Hourly timeframes:
Short
by Jasminex1x2
1
Navigating BTCUSD: A Data-Driven Approach to Bullish TradingI have a bullish outlook on BTCUSD, and here are a few key reasons supporting this view: 1. Political Changes: Recent shifts in the U.S. political scene may lead to more favorable regulations for cryptocurrencies. 2. Economic Conditions: The economy seems to be stabilizing, with inflation decreasing and growth continuing. 3. Institutional Interest: Big investors are showing renewed interest in Bitcoin, which is a positive sign for the market. To get into long positions on BTCUSD, I’m using a strategy based on probabilities. By using this approach, I aim to make smart, data-driven decisions in the exciting world of Bitcoin trading. 1D: 1H: Please feel free to share your thoughts and ideas in the comments below! Let’s learn from each other and navigate this exciting market together!
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
Bearish on TONUSD: 58% to 97% Probability of Hitting TP1!Toncoin (TON) is currently facing several bearish pressures in the market: Key Fundamentals - Declining trading volume indicates waning investor interest - Price action below key EMA levels (20-day, 50-day, and 100-day) reinforces bearish sentiment - Recent completion of a Death Cross on the daily timeframe, the first since May 2023, suggests potential for further downside - Broader cryptocurrency market uncertainty and regulatory concerns are affecting altcoins like TON I'm employing probability-based analysis on my charts to strategically enter short positions on TONUSD. 3D: Hourly timeframes: Please feel free to share your ideas and thoughts!
CRYPTO:TONUSDShort
by Jasminex1x2
1
Market Insights: Why Now is the Time to Go Long on SPX500USDThe S&P 500 continues to show resilience, and my overall bias remains bullish. Several key fundamentals support this outlook: 1. Cooling inflation: Recent data suggests inflation is moderating, potentially easing pressure on the Federal Reserve. 2. Strong labor market: Unemployment remains low, supporting consumer spending and economic stability. 3. Technological advancements: Ongoing AI and tech innovations are driving productivity and growth across sectors. 4. Corporate earnings resilience: Many companies are adapting well to the current economic environment, maintaining profitability. To capitalize on this bullish trend while managing risk, I'm utilizing probabilities in my chart analysis to identify optimal entry points for long positions. 12M: 2W: 12H: I’d love to hear your thoughts on this trade idea! What are your views on SPX500USD? Feel free to share your insights and opinions below!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Jasminex1x2