EURCAD SHORT EURCAD Set-Up
Bearish Arguments:
Monthly PCH is being respected
Monthly Bearish FVG being respected
Monthly swing high has been swept
Weekly swing high is being respected
Daily Bearish FVG is being respected
Daily swing high is being respected
4H swing high is being respected
Bullish Arguments:
Weekly swing low is being disrespected
Daily swing low being respected so far
4H Bullish FVG being respected
4H swing high being respected
As observed, the bearish probability is around 70%, while bullish odds stand at 30%. For this reason, risk management is crucial.
Trade Management:
Stop-loss placed at the short-term high.
First TP set at SellStop. Once this level is reached, move the SL to break-even (BE) and hold until the final target is reached.
Risk-to-Reward (RR): 2.45
Risk: 2%
Probabilities
61.69% Probability for Bullish USOIL TP!Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Outlook:
- OPEC+ Production Cuts: OPEC+ has implemented production cuts to stabilize oil prices, which can lead to a tighter supply and potentially higher prices for crude oil.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly in oil-producing regions, can disrupt supply chains, leading to increased prices as markets react to potential shortages.
- Economic Recovery Signals: As global economies continue to recover from the pandemic, demand for oil is expected to rise, further supporting bullish sentiment in the market.
By combining a bullish bias with a probabilistic approach to trading, I aim to position myself advantageously in the market while managing risks effectively.
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below!
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NVIDIA (NVDA) - Bullish Momentum Fueled by AI RevolutionKey Fundamentals Supporting Bullish Bias:
1. Surging demand for AI chips driving record-breaking revenue growth
2. Launch of next-gen Blackwell architecture expected to outperform current offerings
3. Expanding market share in data center and cloud computing sectors
4. Strong cash flow and $50 billion share buyback program announced
Utilizing Probabilities for Long Positions:
As a trader, I'm leveraging probabilistic analysis to optimize my long entries on NVIDIA.
By combining fundamental analysis with probabilistic technical analysis, I aim to capitalize on NVIDIA's bullish potential while managing risk effectively.
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What's your take on using probabilities in trading? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below! Let's discuss how this approach can enhance our trading strategies.
Have a perfect trading week! 🚀
EUR/USD Bearish Outlook: Boost Your Trading EdgeKey Fundamentals Impacting EUR/USD:
- Economic Slowdown in Europe: Recent data suggests that the Eurozone is facing economic challenges, including declining manufacturing output and rising unemployment rates, which could weaken the euro against the dollar.
- Strengthening US Dollar: The Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation is bolstering the US dollar, making it more attractive to investors.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly in Eastern Europe, are adding uncertainty to the euro's stability, further supporting a bearish outlook.
In my trading strategy for EUR/USD, I am focusing on probabilities to guide my decision-making process.
Take a look at these analyses to see the details behind this trade idea.
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Navigating BTCUSD: A Data-Driven Approach to Bullish TradingI have a bullish outlook on BTCUSD, and here are a few key reasons supporting this view:
1. Political Changes: Recent shifts in the U.S. political scene may lead to more favorable regulations for cryptocurrencies.
2. Economic Conditions: The economy seems to be stabilizing, with inflation decreasing and growth continuing.
3. Institutional Interest: Big investors are showing renewed interest in Bitcoin, which is a positive sign for the market.
To get into long positions on BTCUSD, I’m using a strategy based on probabilities.
By using this approach, I aim to make smart, data-driven decisions in the exciting world of Bitcoin trading.
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Please feel free to share your thoughts and ideas in the comments below!
Let’s learn from each other and navigate this exciting market together!
Bearish on TONUSD: 58% to 97% Probability of Hitting TP1!Toncoin (TON) is currently facing several bearish pressures in the market:
Key Fundamentals
- Declining trading volume indicates waning investor interest
- Price action below key EMA levels (20-day, 50-day, and 100-day) reinforces bearish sentiment
- Recent completion of a Death Cross on the daily timeframe, the first since May 2023, suggests potential for further downside
- Broader cryptocurrency market uncertainty and regulatory concerns are affecting altcoins like TON
I'm employing probability-based analysis on my charts to strategically enter short positions on TONUSD.
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Please feel free to share your ideas and thoughts!
Market Insights: Why Now is the Time to Go Long on SPX500USDThe S&P 500 continues to show resilience, and my overall bias remains bullish. Several key fundamentals support this outlook:
1. Cooling inflation: Recent data suggests inflation is moderating, potentially easing pressure on the Federal Reserve.
2. Strong labor market: Unemployment remains low, supporting consumer spending and economic stability.
3. Technological advancements: Ongoing AI and tech innovations are driving productivity and growth across sectors.
4. Corporate earnings resilience: Many companies are adapting well to the current economic environment, maintaining profitability.
To capitalize on this bullish trend while managing risk, I'm utilizing probabilities in my chart analysis to identify optimal entry points for long positions.
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I’d love to hear your thoughts on this trade idea! What are your views on SPX500USD? Feel free to share your insights and opinions below!
AUDUSD: Bearish Breakout Ahead! 55.06% Chance to Hit My Target!The Australian Dollar faces several headwinds that support a bearish bias against the US Dollar:
1. China's economic slowdown is hurting demand for Australian exports.
2. The RBA has paused rate hikes while the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, potentially widening the interest rate gap.
3. Global economic uncertainties favor the safe-haven USD over the risk-sensitive AUD.
I'm using probability analysis on my charts to find good short entry points for AUD/USD.
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Feel free to comment below with your thoughts or questions!
SPX500USD: Capitalizing on Probabilities for a Bullish SurgeSPX500USD: Bullish Momentum Supported by Key Fundamentals
The S&P 500 (SPX500USD) shows strong bullish potential, backed by several key fundamentals
1. Resilient economic growth: Recent GDP data indicates continued expansion despite earlier recession fears.
2. Easing inflation pressures: Core inflation metrics are trending downward, potentially allowing for a more accommodative Fed policy.
3. Strong corporate earnings: Many companies are beating earnings expectations, demonstrating business resilience.
4. Technological advancements: Ongoing AI integration across sectors is driving productivity gains and investor optimism.
Probability-Based Approach for Long Positions
I'm utilizing probabilities to enter long positions. My charts will showcase key probability zones and potential entry points.
Let's dive into the top-down analysis.
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I’d love to hear your thoughts on the SPX500USD outlook!
Bullish AU200: Key Fundamentals & Probability StrategyThe AU200 (ASX 200) index is showing bullish potential due to several key fundamentals. Australia's economy continues to demonstrate resilience, with a strong labor market and low unemployment rate of 3.6% supporting consumer spending. Additionally, the country's resource-rich economy benefits from robust global commodity prices, particularly in key exports like iron ore and coal. The Reserve Bank of Australia's supportive monetary policy, despite recent tightening to combat inflation, further underpins the positive outlook for the AU200.
I'm incorporating probability top-down analysis into my trading strategy for the AU200 to make more informed decisions and improve my chances of success. By using probability tools on my charts, I can assess the probability of price movements reaching specific levels, helping me identify high-probability trade setups.
Now let's get into the top-down process:
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What are your thoughts on the AU200? Share your ideas and insights below!
USOIL: Bullish Outlook with Probability-Based EntriesMy overall bias on USOIL remains bullish, supported by several key fundamentals:
1. OPEC+ production cuts continuing to tighten supply
2. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raising concerns about potential supply disruptions
3. Improving economic outlook in China, potentially boosting oil demand
4. Seasonal increase in oil consumption as we approach summer driving season
I'm utilizing probabilities to position myself into longs on USOIL.
By combining this probability-based method with my bullish bias, I aim to enter USOIL longs at optimal points with favorable risk-reward profiles.
Feel free to let me know if you need any further adjustments!
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Wishing you a great trading week!
USDNOK ShortBearish Probabilities for USD/NOK: 88.89%
📉 Bearish arguments:
- Monthly PCH respected.
- Weekly FVG respected.
- Weekly swing high swept.
- Daily PCL disrespected.
- Daily swing low disrespected.
- Daily bullish FVG disrespected.
- 4H FVG respected.
- 4H swing low disrespected.
- 4H swing high respected.
📈 Only one bullish argument:
- Monthly PCL respected which is our PD Array.
Trade Management: SL is positioned at the start of the Daily FVG, as a break there would signal a clear reversal or consolidation. TP is placed at the SELL STOP level, although if reached, the price may quickly target the DOL point. I will lock in profits at the first target and look for another entry afterward.
Risk: 2%
R/R: 2.06
Exploring the Bullish Outlook for Litecoin (LTCUSD)Litecoin (LTC/USD) is showing a bullish trend, supported by several key fundamentals.
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing renewed interest, with Litecoin benefiting from its reputation as "digital silver" alongside Bitcoin's "digital gold" status.
Litecoin's upcoming halving event, expected in August 2023, is generating excitement as it typically leads to increased scarcity and potential price appreciation.
Additionally, Litecoin's growing adoption in real-world transactions and its recent integration into various payment platforms are contributing to its positive outlook. The overall crypto market sentiment is improving, with institutional investors showing increased interest in alternative cryptocurrencies like Litecoin.
I'm utilizing probabilities on my charts to get positioned into longs for Litecoin.
Now, let's take a closer look at my analysis.
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Feel free to share your thoughts and ideas in the comments below!
Do not trade if you do not have high probability XAUUSDIt’s not just about the thrill of nailing a setup and making profits. It’s also about recognizing when an asset has you emotionally trapped, even when there’s no solid argument for your position. Here’s a lesson from my own experience:
After making a huge trade on gold ( ) , I became fixated on the idea that it would keep falling, completely ignoring the market structure. This blinded me to the obvious bullish signals the market was giving.
Here are the 7 bullish arguments for gold that I overlooked in my post-trade euphoria:
Monthly PCH disrespected
Weekly FVG respected
Weekly Swing Low respected
Daily Swing Low respected
Daily FVG respected
Bearish 4H FVG disrespected
4H Swing Low respected
Not a single bearish argument in sight—a full 100% probability that the price would rise, and indeed it did.
🚨 Lesson learned: Being a profitable trader isn’t just about technical analysis. It’s about mastering your emotions, understanding market structure, and managing your risk. Stay humble, stay disciplined.
XAGUSD: A Bullish Perspective and Top-Down AnalysisSilver (XAG/USD) is showing a bullish trend, supported by several key fundamentals. The ongoing global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are driving investors towards safe-haven assets like silver.
Additionally, the increasing industrial demand for silver, particularly in the renewable energy sector and electronics industry, is contributing to its positive outlook. The weakening US dollar is also playing a role in boosting silver prices, as the precious metal becomes more attractive to international buyers.
I'm utilizing probabilities on my charts to get positioned into longs for Silver.
Let’s get into the details of my analysis.
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ETHUSD: Bouncing back to ATH | 57.50% Probability!I'm currently bullish on Ethereum (ETH) due to several key fundamentals aligning with this bias:
1. Upcoming network upgrades: The Ethereum ecosystem is preparing for the Cancun-Deneb upgrade, which is expected to improve network efficiency and scalability.
2. Institutional interest: There's growing interest from institutional investors in Ethereum, potentially driving increased demand and price appreciation.
3. DeFi and NFT growth: The continued expansion of decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and the NFT market on Ethereum contributes to its utility and value proposition.
4. Potential ETF approval: The possibility of Ethereum ETFs being approved could open up new avenues for investment and liquidity.
5.Technical indicators: Recent price action suggests a potential bullish breakout, with support levels holding strong.
To capitalize on this bullish outlook, I'm employing a probability-based approach for entering long positions.
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57.50% probability, reaching ATH!
USOIL : Why a 56.53% Probability Signals a Strong Bullish Move!The current global landscape presents several factors supporting a bullish bias for USOIL:
Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to create supply uncertainties, potentially driving prices higher.
Economic Recovery: As major economies show signs of improvement, demand for oil is expected to increase, putting upward pressure on prices.
OPEC+ Production Cuts: Recent decisions by major oil-producing countries to limit output could lead to tighter supply conditions.
Leveraging Probabilities for Strategic Positioning
I'm utilizing probabilistic analysis on my charts to get positioned into longs. Here's why this approach is valuable:
1. Risk Management: By assessing probabilities, I can better gauge potential outcomes and adjust my position sizes accordingly.
2. Identifying High-Probability Setups: Probability-based analysis helps pinpoint trade entries with higher chances of success.
3. Emotional Control: Using probabilities provides a more objective framework, reducing the impact of emotions on trading decisions.
4. Adapting to Market Conditions: Probabilistic thinking allows for flexibility in strategy as market conditions evolve.
By combining fundamental analysis with a probability-based approach to technical analysis, I aim to capitalize on the bullish potential in USOIL.
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The Power of Probability: Navigating BTCUSD Longs with PrecisionSeveral key fundamentals support a bullish outlook for BTCUSD. Increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation continues to drive demand.
There's growing interest in Bitcoin ETFs, potentially broadening investor access. Recent political developments, such as President Biden's unexpected withdrawal from the 2024 election, have introduced volatility in traditional markets, potentially making Bitcoin more attractive as an alternative investment.
Additionally, on-chain metrics show a shift towards Bitcoin accumulation, especially among large wallets and long-term holders, suggesting renewed market confidence.
I'm utilizing probabilities to position myself for long trades in BTCUSD. By focusing on high-probability setups, I can identify favorable entry points where the risk-reward ratio is advantageous for long positions
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Let's discuss our strategies and learn from each other!
Unlocking Profits: Utilizing Probabilities for CADJPY LongsThe Canadian Dollar to Japanese Yen (CADJPY) pair is showing promising bullish potential, supported by several key fundamental factors:
Global Economic Recovery: As the world continues to rebound from recent economic challenges, risk appetite is increasing. This trend typically favors the Canadian Dollar over the safe-haven Japanese Yen.
Commodity Prices: With Canada being a major exporter of commodities, the recent surge in oil prices is likely to bolster the Canadian economy and, by extension, its currency.
Bank of Canada's Stance: The Bank of Canada's relatively hawkish monetary policy compared to the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose policy is creating a favorable interest rate differential for the Canadian Dollar.
Utilizing Probabilities for Long Positions
In this trade idea, I'm employing a probabilistic approach to enter long positions on CADJPY. By combining fundamental analysis with a probabilistic approach to chart reading, I aim to capitalize on the potential upside in CADJPY while maintaining a disciplined and systematic trading strategy.
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Riding the Bull: My Probability-Based Approach to Trading GER30The German DAX (GER30) is showing promising signs for potential upside movement, supported by several key fundamental factors:
1. European Central Bank's accommodative stance
2. Improving economic indicators in the Eurozone
3. Strong performance of German export-oriented companies
4. Increasing investor confidence in the European market recovery
To capitalize on this bullish outlook, I'm employing a probability-based approach to enter long positions on GER30.
Take a look at these analyses to see the details behind this trade idea.
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Unlocking Potential: 59.90% Probability for DOGEUSD ATH Bullish Fundamentals for Dogecoin
1. Increased mainstream adoption: More businesses and platforms are accepting Dogecoin as a form of payment, expanding its real-world use cases.
2. Growing community support: The Dogecoin community remains active and passionate, driving continued interest and development.
3. Potential technological improvements: Ongoing discussions about upgrades to Dogecoin's blockchain could enhance its functionality and appeal.
4. Positive market sentiment: As the broader crypto market shows signs of recovery, meme coins like Dogecoin often benefit from renewed investor interest.
Using Probabilities for Long Positions
I'm utilizing probabilities on my charts to get positioned into longs for DOGEUSD.
This strategy aligns well with my bullish bias on DOGEUSD, allowing me to capitalize on potential upward movements in a more calculated manner.
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AUDJPY Short Setup: Leveraging Probabilities for Better TradesKey Fundamentals
China's Economic Slowdown: Australia relies heavily on trade with China. If China’s economy weakens, it can hurt Australia’s economy and the Australian Dollar.
Safe-Haven Demand: In uncertain times, investors often turn to safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen, which could lead to a drop in AUD/JPY.
Different Central Bank Policies: The Bank of Japan is keeping interest rates low, while the Reserve Bank of Australia may consider rate hikes. This difference can strengthen the Yen against the Australian Dollar.
Using Probabilities for Short Trades
By combining these fundamentals with a probability-based strategy, I aim to effectively trade AUD/JPY.
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On this timeframe I can get positioned into shorts based on probabilities.
JP225USD: Using Probabilities to Position for a Bearish TrendThe current global economic landscape presents several factors that align with a bearish bias for the Japanese stock market, particularly the Nikkei 225 index (JP225USD):
Global Economic Slowdown: Concerns about a potential recession in major economies are weighing on investor sentiment.
Bank of Japan Policy Shift: The recent rate hike by the Bank of Japan may impact the stock market as it moves away from ultra-loose monetary policy.
Yen Strength: A stronger yen could potentially hurt Japanese exporters, affecting their profitability and stock prices.
Utilizing Probabilities for Short Positioning
I'm employing probability-based analysis on my charts to identify optimal entry points for short positions.
By combining fundamental bearish factors with probability-based technical analysis, I aim to create a robust trading strategy for shorting JP225USD.
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