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Probabilities

Will the dollar recover its recent losses?Looking lately at the Peso/Dollar relationship, it has seemed as if the high prices for the dollar are here to stay and the super peso has come to past. It was surprising to see that the upward trend that price was on broke. However, price as of lately has been struggling to push downwards. This is because of the 25MA is acting as support on the daily chart. Additionally, seeing the 25MA acting as resistance in the monthly chart put this trade in an uncomfortable situation. Mainly because even though there is an uptrend in important time frames, this trend is being tested on a way larger time frame. On the other hand, the movement that brought price to these levels was very solid and has a lot of support under it. Considering 18.00 pesos per dollar to be quite a good deal, I would believe that many more people will see it this way and would rather be investing in dollars. In conjunction with the main Mexican index BMV:ME which has failed to recover from the down movement caused by the victory of the newly elected Mexican president. It's officially been a month since the index hasn't been able to break above the 25MA. If price fails to create an uptrend soon, this could lead to another 8% fall in the Index. This would create great buying opportunities in the Mexican market but could also cause investors to panic. Waiting to see if Mexico is in the verge of collapse makes me think that dominoes may be starting to fall. Meaning there could be something much more serious lurking under the water. This in combination with the high risk that the USA will enter a crisis makes me believe that if price of Mexican stocks doesn't begin to turn around, we could be on the verge of a new recession. The USA still seems to have some fuel left in the tank, which could help the Mexican index recover, as also the recent rainfall has been a blessing for many communities that were affected by the severe droughts all over the country. Meaning there is a possibility that Mexico will recover, but if it doesn't then this should be a red sign for the USA as your market is overextending. Meaning, if USA enters intro euphoria and Mexico into crisis, then we would have a severe economic divergence in two countries which economies are interconnected. Expect the best, prepare for the worst.
Long
by DarkMessiah777
TSLA: Short-term Probability Analysis | 57.35% Reversal!Short-term analysis of NASDAQ:TSLA indicates that the price is most likely to head to trade above +$200 in the coming days/weeks. Breaking down the reason behind the current setup and why we should be expecting new mid-term highs: Feel free to share your thoughts or any feedback you have on the analysis. Also, if you're interested in analyzing the probabilities directly on your charts make sure to check out the Free Public Indicator that I've published recently!
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Fractalyst
GBP/JPY- Trend Changing PatternMy focus this morning is on the GBPJPY, we have seen a strong reaction to the breakdown low that happened on 03 May 2024. The reaction gave us a bullish wave structure on the H1 timeframe, the concluding factor is that wave structure 4 failed to make an HH 5 (200.652). Instead of an HH 5, the price made an LH 5 in an uptrend. The price then proceeded to break structure 4, known as a trend-changing pattern. Knowing this information determined our directional bias for the GBPJPY. So far, we have seen a retracement to the LH 5 (200.652), which has now become a structural point because it made a LL. Yesterday the price formation indicated that the Sellers are slowly coming into the market above the 200.652, we saw sharp rejections twice yesterday and a trade below the 200.65 and 200.50 today will be a sell indication for us. The invalidation point is a break above the 200.95, above here selling is no longer an option for us. Think in Probability: As traders, you must be careful to align your behavior and expectations with the following principles: - Anything can happen - An EDGE is only an indication of one thing happening over another - There is a random distribution between wins and losses - You don't need to know what will happen in order to make money in trading.
Short
by Charts247TradingAcademy
7
ETHUSD: Bouncing back to ATH | 66.67% Probability!COINBASE:ETHUSD has been getting a lot of attention in the crypto world lately. It recently went through a big drop in price (-25%) , but now it's showing signs that it might be bouncing back and heading bullish again. Here's what you need to know: ETH's price dropped a lot over the past 2-3 months, and it's been consolidating since then. According to my Free Probability Indicator , there's a good chance that ETH's price could hit a new high. Around 66% chance on the 3D chart and 62% on the daily chart which is a pretty high number! This drop in price could actually be a good thing because it's created a big opportunity to buy ETH at a lower price. Right now, it's about 38% cheaper than its highest price ever. If you're thinking about trading ETH, here's what you should consider: Entry: Wait for clear signs that the price is going up again, like breaking through certain price levels or seeing strong positive movements on the daily chart. Once you're confident the trend is changing, you could think about buying ETH. I'm currently looking at 4H Equilibrium to get position Exit: To protect yourself from losses, you might want to set a "trailing stop-loss." This means if the price starts dropping again after you buy, your sell order will automatically trigger to limit secure your running profits. Risk Management: Make sure you're not risking more money than you can afford to lose. Only invest what you're comfortable with, and consider how much you're willing to lose if things don't go as planned. This isn't any financial advice. It's just some insights to help you make informed decisions. Always do your own research before investing in anything.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Fractalyst
2
LINKUSD: Rallying Back to $20 | 72.73% Confidence!COINBASE:LINKUSD has been drawing a lot of attention in the crypto space in the past few days. It experienced a significant drop in price (-47%), but now it's starting to show signs of a potential rebound and might be heading bullish again. Here's the breakdown: COINBASE:LINKUSD price took a major hit over the past 2-3 months and has been consolidating since. According to my Free Probability Indicator , There's a 72.73% chance it could climb back over $20, which is pretty much encouraging! This price drop might actually be beneficial as it presents a great opportunity to buy LINK at a lower price. If you're thinking about trading LINK, here's what you should consider: Entry: Wait for clear signs that the price is going up again, like huge up-move candle showing strong positive movements on the daily chart. Once you're confident the trend is changing, consider buying LINK. I'm currently looking at the 4H Equilibrium to get positioned. Exit: To protect yourself from drawdowns, consider setting a "trailing stop-loss." This will automatically trigger a sell order if the price starts dropping again after you buy, securing your running profits. Risk Management: Ensure you're not risking more money than you can afford to lose. Only invest what you're comfortable with and consider how much you're willing to lose if things don't go as planned. This isn't financial advice, just some insights to help you make informed decisions. Always do your own research before investing in anything.
COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by Fractalyst
BTCUSD: The Game of Probabilities | New ATH? 65.28% Chance!Medium-term analysis of COINBASE:BTCUSD indicates that the price is poised to surge towards new all-time highs, with a probability of 65.28%! Let's get into the underlying reasons for this: 1. The current status on the "1D" timeframe is "Active," indicating that the price has already reached and touched the 50% equilibrium level on the current timeframe. 2. Since the price has reached the equilibrium level of the daily timeframe, our focus now shifts to determining which liquidity side presents higher probabilities compared to the other. 3. In this scenario, the 1D/BSL (Buyside liquidity) indicates a 65.28% probability of the price reaching the 73835.57 level again. More details: Feel free to share your thoughts or any feedback you have on the analysis. Also, if you're interested in analyzing the probabilities directly on your charts make sure to check out the Free Public Indicator that I've published recently!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Fractalyst
My BTC spot idea.Thesis Max pain would be filling the gap maybe going to the CME gap and going ballistic after. Yellow is not filling the retails buy orders and just going up. People will try to jump on the wave and power up the upside. Red filling gap and stopping out a lot of retail. Going up after. Green is filling all the gaps which I dont think will happen because we will have a lot of buying in the zone there. And a black one just going down trying the lows. Which I dont think will happen. Going for 44k probably. Lows after due to recession. After halving ballistic again. Not a recommendation. Just my plan.
Long
by boyanoff_B13
ETHUSD Pattern recognition of probabilitiesSee descriptions on the Chart. This is a neutral analysis of simply where we have recently been and patterns that where formed, and where price may follow and how we get there over the next couple weeks as we look at the 4 hour timeframe. Looking for past pattern replays that resemble and match several key indicator characteristics, price action, and where these indicators where previously in relation to their current positions & to current price action and the possible probabilities we may see play out again.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by MinerChad
2
Managing Risk Using Probabilities 3 In part 2 of this series, we discussed the probability of a coin flip and how the odds that you land on heads "x" number of times in a row significantly decreases each time the coin is flipped. Therefore, it is important to understand the difference between "the probability the chart goes up or down" and "the probability that you (the trader) find yourself in a winning trade." The brings me to my next point of gathering your data. There is a difference between gathering data to calculate the probability an asset will rise or fall versus gathering data on a specific trade set-up and determining whether or not it will win or lose. Backtesting and forward testing are both excellent methods to calculate probabilities. In my honest opionion, backtest at least 100 trades in order to best calculate probability. Ask yourself if you are okay with losing more than 3 times in a row. If your set up loses more than 4 times in a row, it is very likely your odds of being in a losing trade are worse. Please take the time to think and meditate on this matter. If there are no questions concerning this, I may begin to go into details of my own personal trading set ups on the next article. Be blessed! Handy
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PEducation
by DelusionalRams8
2
Is Volatility the New Normal? Hi I'm Goose and I'm apparently obsessed with the VIX this week. I would say I've reached a point of borderline stalker, going through historical data, working up average all time range theories, and ultimately writing a script that will give me a bar count inside and outside of a date and price range and the percentage of time during that period that the VIX has gone wild. I used this script compare these statistics across the daily chart in different sections of time. Now, I did this because I am anticipating a return to mean with the VIX any moment now. I'm tapping my fingers and getting impatient. And not because I'm waiting for a rally, I mean, a rally would be cool, but because this has gone on long enough really. So I decided to compare the 2008 Crash historical data with the more recent Covid data. If you haven't read the in's and out's, the timeline and the reasons why, go do that right now. Or just watch The Big Short a couple of times for the cliff notes. But for the sake of this chart, I marked up some of the important moments during what is now known as the Housing Crisis/Great Recession. Theoretically I could have made arguments to drag this period out to 2014, but comparably it makes little sense and frankly, even further drives my theory, so I ended the period when the market had recovered its 50% losses from pre crash peaks. Keep in mind, current markets recovered and S&P Futures made a new high in just under 6 months from the Covid Crash. So this is already an unfair comparison. And that is kind of my point. Comparable factors like unemployment and U.S. Homeownership are actually contradictory for the most part if you omit the summer of 2020. And if you're in the group, as I am, that believes low unemployment numbers promote higher inflation numbers, then we could argue inflation begun, albeit transitory, in May and July of 2018 when unemployment dropped below 4% and really got a foothold in 2019. All it needed was a supply chain interruption. And I know Covid takes the blame for that, but that had started also. China trade, pine beetles, metal shortages, coffee , etc... So when Covid whooped the employment numbers 10 points from March at 4.4%, to April at 14.7%, it basically created a sling shot effect with equities. Come August of 2020 when those numbers rapidly dropped to 8.4% we made brand new highs. And within a year we had dropped back to where we started in the upper 4% range. I know I'm on a tangent, but why is this important? Because in the Covid Market, we turned those numbers around in 1 year, as opposed to the 5 years it took to recover AFTER the end of the Recession and its 5 year recovery. Soooo... That's why I'm not counting that period, and why I'm calling out VIX on is behavior. So lets get to my point. Is the new normal volatile AF ? As it currently stands, and based on a range of $10-$20 dollars which I determined to be fair visually for the initial part of this work up, the VIX has spent 5% more days above the standard range. Now 5% isn't a deal breaker. We can find dramatic headlines that will excuse random volatility but I will argue we are at a crossroads. If we continue to stay above $20, we risk having to work hard and longer to get that figure back down. Remember calculating your GPA , but in reverse. Eventually the shock and awe of a +$30 VIX won't induce the same FOMO reaction and things may get really weird. When VIX goes into the new year, the powers that be will need to reign her in to avoid decoupling on any given Wednesday instead of just low liquidity holidays. My theory actually goes further down the rabbit hole when I narrowed down a true 50% average range, wait for it.... $10 - $16.75! YES! The overall, from inception, average high of range sits at $16.75. And pop on the tin foil hat because with that range, both the Housing Crisis/Great Recession AND the Covid Market are sitting at 91% above range. I checked that 3 times to be sure and I did not include that in the frame of this chart as it already had enough scribbling all over it, but if you explore to the bottom of the chart you will see a smashed up mess of it. So if your listening Market Makers, shut it down, shut it down now. And if that is what you are setting up to do as I have already speculated in a previous work up, well done! Keep it up. I know for a fact that the VIX is heavily relied upon by many successful traders in many different products for directional bias, let's not ruin it shall we... On this chart you will see the table bar counts for inside and outside of price range for the specified period as well as the total bar count and the percentage of bars outside of that range. That means up OR down so the period between the Recession and Covid has 12% outside of range, but you will notice that it goes below the range as well. When the price range was moved down beneath the lows to $8, it lowered the percentage by 3 points. I have also labeled some fun facts that occurred during the historical period to show a bit about why I choose the dates that I did. Leave a comment for a heated debate, or to tell me how cool I am, or that I'm just a silly Goose. en.wikipedia.org www.statista.com data.bls.gov
TVC:VIX
by goofoffgoose
Pound Yen is about to take off to 166.426Hey trader. I hope you having a fantastic week! The price is currently running in the double bottoms 2nd leg formation and above the 50 and bullish crossed short-term MA's. We're expecting an uptrend to the double bottoms neckline for the accumulation phase formation. The price will react to that anticipation once it has bearish retested the Daily Half a Bat Neckline, 50 and 8 MA with a bullish candle formation or close. But if the price bearish breaks and closes below those key levels, the uptrend will be rejected, then a drop to the Mini Monthly Neckline may occur. That's it for today. I hope you found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section (below), I'd love to know your thoughts! Stay Blessed Baby, Sphatrades.
by Doji-2k1
ETHUSD Forecast: Price is rejecting the bullish signalHey traders, I hope y'all having a profitable week! The price is currently bearish running in the previous head and shoulder patterns 2nd level. Before it got to where its at, it bearish broke and didn't retest the Mini Daily Half a Bat Neckline, 1st Monthly Key Lvl, and 50 MA. That give us our bullish target. But we also have a bearish target which is the head and shoulders 3rd level. So if the price forms a bullish reversal pattern that leads it to bullish break and retest the Mini Daily Half a Bat Neckline and 8 MA (entering the vertical blue range), it will give us our bullish signal. Conversely, if the price bearish breaks and retests the Daily Neckline and 3rd Daily Key Lvl, that will be our bearish signal. That's it for today. I hope you found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section (below), I'd love to know your thoughts! Stay Blessed, Sphatrades.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Doji-2k1
GOLD Market updateHi friends, I hope y'all had a fantastic weekend! Today, we're looking at a possible bullish uptrend to the 2nd Daily Key Lvl and 21 MA. Reason being, the price has reached the previous mini bearish half a bat patterns 3rd level. Usually when the price has reached the level, it forms a reversal pattern to confirm it. So, we're looking at two possible bullish reversal patterns that will likely form. Currently the price wants to form a bullish half a bat. If it bearish bounces off the 3rd Daily Key Lvl or Mini Monthly Neckline with a bullish reversal candle pattern, it will dis-confirm the half a bat pattern, and we'll be looking at a head and shoulder pattern formation that will lead to the bullish uptrend we're anticipating for this week. That's it for today. I hope y'all found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section, I'd love to know your thoughts! Stay Blessed, Sphatrades.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Doji-2k1
GBPJPY July W.3: Long-term trend signalHi friends, I hope y'all are having a profitable week ;) Today, we have a long-term buy trade on this baby. This trade is derived from the monthly time frame that has a huge bullish head and shoulder pattern that has its current price running in the L1 (small consolidation) and above the 200 m.a and short-term m.a's that are bullish crossed and retested. Having the price closed with bullish reversal candle and current forming a bullish candle, signals that the price wants to continue the patterns trend to/for its L2 and L3 together for the key levels that were previously broken and not retested. So that's just the preface of the monthly's current market condition, now let us take a look at this time frame to find out how the bulls and bears might behave in triggering or dis-confirming our trades. Bulls: If the price bullish breaks and run above (but retest on the 4 hour) the 6th Daily Key Lvl (1st trade signal), and proceeds to bullish break and retest the 5th Weekly Key Lvl (2nd trade signal), according to the weekly: the price will be in prep to rally for the double bottoms L1, L3, and L3 together for all the m.a's trend; and according to the monthly: the price would be in a bullish candle formation in and above the H&S L1 - in prep to rally for the patterns L2 and L3 together for the short-term m.a's trend, once that happens, then we should BUY!...(E.1 & E.2) Bears: -If the price decides to bearish break and close below the Daily Half a Bat Neckline 4 and 21 m.a (red), that will dis-confirm both trades. This is not financial advise, but if you would like to hop on these trades with me, there they are: BUY E.1@: 165.576 Lot Size: 0.05 S.L @: 161.851 (-0.92%) T.P 5@: 192.502 (+7.53%) R/R/R: 1:8 BUY E.2 @: 168.833 Lot Size: 0.04 S.L @: 164.651 (-0.91%) T.P 4@: 192.502 (+5.22%) R/R/R: 1:6 That's it for today. I hope you found value in this trade idea. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section or in private, I'd love to know you thoughts! Stay Blessed, Doji.2k1
Long
by Doji-2k1
How To Trade Probability Ranges The Critical Rule of 1/3Using the Rule of Thirds to Master Probabilities in trading and investing ranges -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stocks typically remaining in consolidation ranges 70% of the time while trending the remainder. Using the rule of thirds, we can use statistics, prior price action and the probabilities of success to determine when to enter trades where the odds are stacked in our favor. 1) We start by finding a stock that is in a consolidation range, and identify the nearest important support and important resistance levels based on your targeted trading timeframe. 2 ) We take the range between the support and resistance levels and divide it into thirds, so we have three zones within the consolidation range. 3) When going long, you want to BUY the stock when it is within the bottom third or the zone from support to the 1st third level. Once you buy, your objectives are to hold during the middle third of the range, and sell during the top third. When you buy in the first third, this gives you a 66 percent chance of success. If you buy in the second third of the range, you only have a 50/50 chance of success. Going long in the top third of the range, gives you only a 33% chance of success because you are already close to the resistance level. When going short, the sequence and odds are reversed. You sell during the top third of the range, hold during the middle third and exit in the bottom third. This again gives you a 66% chance of success when you enter in the top third, 50/50 chance if you enter in the middle third, and a 33% chance of success if you enter in the bottom third as you are already close to the support zone. ****Using this simple trick, you can quickly evaluate trades based on probabilities and selectively enter trades where the odds of success are the highest and avoid likely losing trades. The rule of thirds also also gives you the confidence to continue to hold trades based on previous important ranges, and provides clear levels where the stock is likely to either reverse or start trending. Hope It Helps to your Trading & Investing Success Marc
FTX:MATICUSDEducation
by PowerIndicators
9
BTC markov method follow-up, initial pt reachedThis worked out scary well... I'd need a bigger sampe to confirm the method is consistent, but examine the following dynamics of the BTC movement through this "matrix" built around the initial symmetrical channel: - 31616.3 was my target last week when it was 28k merely because that level marked the upper bound (top point of local diamond) of the next most probable state - i.e. at the time of last analysis the most likely neigborhood of an adjacent state of 4 sections (individual boxes) had an upperbound at the 3161.3 level. - In general BTCUSD has been respecting each state like clockwork - this means when it gets near upper-bound of state it pulls back to lower bound of state and vice versa. The probability of the next state given the current state is based on the probabilities of the stochastic matrix, but one cn actually eyeball the tendency of yellow path (I call this the "yellow brick road" because it leads to the emerald city lol, i.e. new highs to around 83k by end of year; if it strays from the yellow brick road t risks meeting the wicked witch of the west, aka danger, aka risk to 13-23k to establish a bottom if we don't breakout of the markov grid (breakout would be around 34k-41k. So... the tendecy of the yellow path is like a connect 4 mid-point creek that moves +- 1 units in alternating (typically) fashion, every now and then going 2 up after a 1 down which gives it the updward drift pushing toward breakout. The reason there are intermittent consecutive ups with +2 and not +3, +4, +5,... within the +-1 pattern is because to go +2 in the time period for each state (which is constant) is still approximately linear, however after +2 it becomes non-linear - specifically expanding geometric with limit as n approaches infinity becoming exponential... The stochastic matrix is by design a system of linear equations so when a +2 and especially +3 occurs there is a bifurcation in the probability outputs (they go haywire) that signals this +3 or more w.r.t path is truly a change in structure ~ NOW THIS IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING: during the move off last weeks lows there was a break of structure (or at least break of expected path defining structure)... it moved up for 2 consecutive states and then "jumped" up a 3rd consecutive state (the mechanics of what this means are in the above point. The interpretation of what this means is more clear; the prediction of near-term price action now becomes more complex but at the same time it confirms that volatility will escalate and that makes it a traders market again which we all should love. See below for Interpretation and Prediction: Interpretation : I mentioned last week that the rate of state transitions was starting to accelerate around the chopzone at 28-30k and because of that the probability of next state being higher with upper bound (and therefore initial target) of 31616.3 was a lot closer to 1 than 0 (previously the transition probabilities had been around 74-78%, the initial shift took the probability to 88. Now the rate that the shift is accelerating has increased substantially and, thus, forced the path structure to a non-linear system. The question now becomes, (a) will it remain non-linear (a way to evaluate at a non-linear level via approximation will be to redefine the size of a state to be proportional with the degree of the non-linear form (e.g. quadratic (which is where it is currently would require a neighborhood of 8 (2 x 4) sections to capture the implied range)... if not (a) then it would likely exhibit properties similar to when an asset goes parabolic and then breaks down when the movement becomes unstable - in our case it would imply a sharp pullback to around 29-30k (equal but opposite to the non-linear degree realized by the movement to local maximum state) and that would ultimately reset back to the linear path (i.e. back into the sideways consolidation). b) is the bifurcation to non-linear path necessary to initiate the breakout from consolidation (rather than an anomaly that reverts back to linear base). (b) is the most plausible if it establishes new support here at the 31616.3. We are about to see moment of truth at this very moment and I have mapped out how to play both of the 2 possibilities: PREDICTION: - If 31616.3 can hold here as support, expect next leg up to attempt breakout around 34k-37k (has 41k old support above that to deal with ut were not there yet - if this doesn't hold it will test support around 30.8k, which if that fails expect the reset-to-linear scenario back down to the 28-30k range. - A third possibility (c) is that it over-corrects from the bifurcation in structure and goes from non-linear at degree +2-+3 into a non-linear -2 to -3 (which could take it to 23k-13k. Either way... we're not in Kansas anymore don't expect the boring sideways price action recently to continue from here. I'll update on which scenario has higher probability given condition around if it holds 31616.3. ~Best Knocksville Johnny
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by JerryManders
ES SPX At A CRITICAL Probabilities Zones...2008 Again or 5150 ?In this key video, let's review what could happen to the ES SPX at critical zones and Probabilities in the coming week. First, keep an eye on the fear factor - the VIX index. If we have a flush down, then I expect the algos to come in and squeeze the ES, SPX and cryptos back up. Even in a bear market we have violent squeezes around round numbers like 4000 where the manipulate the markets with flushes and squeezes. Second, watch the dollar ($DXY) - if it goes back down, it will support risk on assets and thus support the ES and SPX around the 3800 level. See my prior video on the VIX index for a refresher on risk on and risk off assets. Remember trading is all about probabilities and there are no absolutes in trading. Stay flexible and go with the order flow. Hope its helps Have a great week everyone Marc
CME_MINI:ES1!
by PowerIndicators
5
THIS WILL LOOK UGLY!! - I WISH THIS IS NOT THE SCENARIO Hello Everyone!!! I'm so Bullish on BTC right now, but as a Trader, we still need to see any possibilities from any direction. This bounce could be temporary. **BTC Idea** As I said before, Im so bullish on BTC, even now i'm on LONG position with +200% gain already, Im going LONG from $40.500 and so far I made a decent profits. But, once again, as a Trader. I have to really pay attention for any possibilities, and in this post you gonna see my idea on Bearish EWT Count for BTC. I'm not saying it's a 100% guarantee happen, I have the alternative count and I wish I could share to you guys somehow. Perhaps YouTube channel with English Language would be a very good idea. Tell me your opinion in the comment section. This is not a financial advice, it's just my humble opinion and I could be wrong somehow. Good luck for you guys!! God Bless and Cheers!!!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Kevin_Sailly
2