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200 MA| Resistance | Correction| Low Volume Hello Traders! Today’s chart update will be on LTCBTC where it failed to break the 200 MA, putting in yet another lower high in the bear trend. Points to consider, - Bearish structure - 128MA current support - 200MA is Major resistance - Stochastics topping out - RSI hitting support - Volume below average Litecoin, overall has been putting in consecutive lower highs, until this structure changes, it in in a strong bear trend. The 128MA is current support, holding LTC but does look quite weak. The 200 MA is a major resistance level for LTC to close above, this will signal a probable trend change if it comes to fruition. Stochastics in currently topping out, lots of stored momentum to the down side. The RSI is currently in neutral territory, a break or bounce is probable in either direction. Volume is well below average, LTC is probable to retrace back to structural support as bull volume follow through has failed. Overall, in my opinion, LTC failed to break the 200MA, thus a correction back to support is probable as this area holds the golden pocket of the Fibonacci retracement. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “In order to succeed, you first have to be willing to experience failure.” ― Yvan Byeajee,
Short
by AzizKhanZamani
DAX - strong bearish divergence - Fight against probabability In continuation to my previous chart on XETR:DAX , there is a continuation of the bearish divergence. This a signal that price action is not appropriately being reflected in the indicators and may see a halt or correction Like I Said, I went through some data crunching and found the below interesting observations that make the current upward movement by DAX very encouraging (if you do believe in history) and hence the title fight against probability Did you know from 1983 to 2018 (36 years history) for DAX 1. The Sept close candle has been in the Green 25 times and Red about 11 times (so Sept month being higher than previous month probability is about 70% 2.Oct and Nov close candle (that's posted in Nov and Dec respectively) has closed 24 times in Green and 12 times in Red (67% probability of ending higher than previous month) 3. All 3 months ending higher that the previous one probability is 30.56% 4. All 3 months ending in Red is a mere 5% Year Sept Oct Nov (CANDLE CLOSE, POSTED IN SUBSEQUENT MONTH BEGINING) - G (Green) and R(Red) 1983 G, G, G, 1984 G, G, G, 1985 G, R, G, 1986 R, G, R, 1987 R, R, R, 1988 G, R, G, 1989 R, G, G, 1990 G, G, R, 1991 R, R,G, 1992 G, G, R, 1993 G, R, G, 1994 G, R, G, 1995 R, G, R, 1996 G, G, G, 1997 R, G, G, 1998 G, G, G, 1999 G, G, G, 2000 G, R, G, 2001 G, G, G, 2002 G, G, R, 2003 G, G, G, 2004 G, G, G, 2005 R, G, G, 2006 G, G, G, 2007 G, R, G, 2008 R, R, G, 2009 R, G, G, 2010 G, G, R, 2011 G, G, R, 2012 G, G, G, 2013 G, G, G, 2014 R, G, R, 2015 G, G, R, 2016 G, R, G, 2017 G, R, R, 2018 R, R, R, 2019 G, ?, ? Hope this information is useful. Please share a thumbs up and leave a comment if you like it www.tradingview.com
XETR:DAXShort
by LoveForCharts
4
Surprise? probabilities...So was I surprised by this 800$ crush? were you surprised? if you followed my ideas so far then I guess not... - We hit again and again into the 4h cloud resistances which included sma200 and ma200, we created many strong resistances... - Bulls had 1 last chance (Like I called on my last idea: ) to prove themselves that they can break these resistances, and for a moment there I even had hopes for them (Thus I didn't give signals for you guys even though I did enter shorts at the resistances again), the buying power was growing, the bullish volumes were growing and created highs, I seen so many groups and people call that this is going to be the big shot up.... and yet? they barely could handle with the first resistance, and not enough volume buying power to suppress it all... - There was no where to go anymore but below the symmetrical triangle - the bears won this round. Now don't get me wrong, we are still not in full confirmations that we are going down... after all even the descending triangle which we are going to test soon can still be valid for consolidation for 3 facts: - Descending triangles if they don't break down after 3-5 hits at the bottom, it weakens the descending pattern and making this 'floor' a very strong support. - Descending triangles if they don't break between 50-75% of their entire length, it not only weakens them but also shows a reversal pattern in the investors mood. which means we might create even stronger push up.. - Descending triangles, if the bullish candles are beginning to be more active then the bearish ones around the 50-75% of the triangle length, it means that we are heading for a very strong bullish pattern on which the bulls consolidated enough money to break the shit out of the market up... So what are our next probabilities?: #currentprice#9660 1. Bullish: we can enter now at 9600-9700, and wait for the little pullback until we gonna test the symmetrical resistance again (The longer it will take, the more resistances from the triangle will interrupt and make it even heavier for them to push above it). 2. Bearish: we can enter now at 9600-9700, as so far from many aspects (TA/FA/SA) it looks bad for the bulls in my perspective and due to previous ideas such as my bigger picture: (Which for some reason Tradingview lagged some of my lines there ^_^, sorry if it's a bit off, but it works out so far) 3. The best idea is to wait for 2 things: - More confirmations, like closing weekly/monthly on Sunday, which will tell us much more where are we heading... - More confirmations such as breaks of the resistance from the symmetrical bottom to go long, or break the resistance of the descending to go short... * I personally gonna try and either long if we pass 9700 entry 9710 sl 9600 tps: 9920, 9970, 10130, 10160, 10260 and I will have 10% left to run more until I feel enough is enough... dont forget to move sls accordingly to profits.. * Or short if we pass below 9600 entry 9690 sl 9700 tps: 9300, 8800, 8300, 7800, 7300 and I will have 10% left to run more until I feel enough is enough... These signals are valid for until sls hit, or until I will update otherwise. Good luck <3
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Hedgehog_king
Dax daily: 31 Jul 2019 We welcome you by the last DAX analysis of the month. We expected a downside yesterday with lazy price action. It was pretty clear shortly after the open that the volatility was beyond laziness. The price sliced through the support of 12 368 like a knife and within two hours, Dax stretched its range to some 170 points. Today we open with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 284, 12 195 Support: NIL Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's low is 83% Macroeconomic releases USA - 20:00 CEST - Federal Funds Rate + FOMC Statement USA - 20:30 CEST - FOMC Press Conference Today's session hypothesis We have a high probability of breaking yesterday's low and therefore all our short trades have a clearly defined target. Another good key for today's price estimation is the increased probability of Dax closing inside yesterday's range. Sellers could step in around 12 195, if not sooner. Some bullish powers can be anticipated after yesterday's low breakout.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
SYMC Volatile - Breakout Mode - Slight Bull AdvantageSYMC is at the bottom of a bull flag trading range and in the midst of an expanding triangle. Prices have been volatile the past two weeks, with gaps up and down. Both sides are fighting for follow through. The bulls have a slight advantage because we are near the bottom of a bull flag trading range. The bears need a strong breakout below the 16 higher low. There have been many bear attempts over the past year to break below, but so far have failed (tails). The bulls want a test of the all time high around 34, but need a breakout above the 26 level first. The bull follow through from the Jun 3 double bottom pullback was strong, with consecutive bars and bull gaps. The bulls will likely (60%) get some form of second leg up and test of the 24-26 level unless the bears get a strong breakout below the 18 support. There is always atleast a 40% chance of this happening, but until it does, it hasnt. To learn more about how to determine the directional probability and how to structure a trade based on this with a positive traders equation, please see below. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
SLong
by tradersmentality
TSLA 60% Bull ProbabilityTSLA reversed up from a failed bear breakout and sell climax. The bulls have closed the exhaustion gap and created several potential breakout gaps around 200. The bulls now have a 60% chance of creating a second leg up and test of the middle of the upper trading range around 300. The bears need a strong breakout below the 180 higher low. The probability of this is 40%. Once prices get back into the 260-360 trading range, prices will once again return to a 50/50 directional probability. If the bulls continue to get strong consecutive closes, and the bears do not get any strong selling pressure, the probability will slightly favor the bulls for a test of the high of the range. To learn more about how to determine the directional probability and how to create a trade based on this, please see below. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by tradersmentality
Dax daily: 15 Jul 2019 Friday's price action ended prematurely, soon after the session opened and Dax fell by some 80 points. Following was a sideway movement and closing in the middle of the intra-day range. Today we open with an ascending gap which might soon be closed. Important zones Resistance: NIL Support: 12 277 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today's analysis will be slightly plain as Dax doesn't provide many clues for any further development. There is one notable support level nearby and this is laying at 12 277. There is no resistance to pinpoint, statistics idle and the price action is dull too. We wish you all a good start to this trading week and be safe in the markets.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 04 Jun 2019 There was no resistance formed at Friday’s close. On the other hand, the support level laying at 11 620 that we spoke about in previous analysis functioned as expected. We found a new low here and the control was taken back by buyers who took the price towards the resistance at 11 788. This price zone was also mentioned in our yesterday’s analysis and it turned out Dax respected that very nicely too. The price bounced back from there and the session ended at 11 740. Important zones Resistance: 11 788 Support: 11 620 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today’s session got open pretty much without a gap. The price hovers just below the important resistance level at 11 788 and it appears this could be retested again. Should the price go above that, the next target will be 11 860. If the price does not break 11 788, we anticipate the action below this level in the range of 11 620 – 11 788 without any significant volatility.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 03 Jun 2019 The last session of May closed in red numbers when the price continued its drop in the descending gap direction, just as we anticipated. Those last few bearish days erased all the gains from the past two months and we are now in the territory where the price was at the beginning of April this year. This confirms the known theory that bulls walk up the stairs, while bears jump out the window. Important zones Resistance: 11 788 Support: 11 620 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap today is only 30% Macroeconomic releases 09:15 – 10:00 CEST – Eurozone PMIs Today’s session hypothesis The first trading day of June started optimistic on Dax. Bulls are in a lead it appears they might have enough power to close the weekend gap. This one is sized 70 points and doesn’t close often. It is likely there is a weaker resistance level on Friday’s close, which could be a bounce point for further sells. Should the price descend below 11 620, it is likely we see further selling pressure.
XETR:DAX
by FTMO
Dax daily: 31 May 2019 As we anticipated, the support level of 11 861 held the price pretty strongly for the entire session and didn’t allow sellers to go any deeper. The gap was then closed and the intraday trading closed priced 11 918. Important zones Resistance: 11 861 Support: 11 735 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis After yesterday’s successful day for buyers, we came surprised to see the strength of the morning gap. This one is sized with some 140 points which is quite unusual. Dax has now entered the zone below the significant support levels and this is where the price was for the past two months. The first price action level where it is likely for the price to stall is the level laying around 11 735. With the gaps of such size, it is more likely the price continues in the gap direction and it’s close is then less probable.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 30 May 2019 Bearish momentum continued yet for another day in a row. After the open, Dax took a south direction and the price reached the support level of 11 861 without any problem. This level was retested a couple of times before the price eventually closed there. Yesterday’s price action took us to the low formed on 01 April. Important zones Resistance: 11 986, 12 063 Support: 11 861, 11 827 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 69% The statistical probability of breaking yesterday’s low is 96% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Although the trading is limited today in many countries due to the public holiday and Eurex is partially closed, Dax market is open as normal. For today, we have quite some interesting leads given by the Statistical application. The most important is the probability of 96% to break yesterday’s low and this could signify further downfalls. When we look at the chart from a longer time perspective, there is a lot of room for sellers after breaking the 11 861 barrier. As of now, this level functions well and holding the price. Let’s keep a sharp eye on how this situation evolves.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 29 May 2019 Bulls were facing a sad scenario yesterday as the selling pressures continued through the gap closure. The price stalled lower at the support level of 11 985. In the end, bears broke out that zone and Dax closed on its intra-day low at 11 965. Important zones Resistance: 12 063 Support: 11 861, 11 922 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 41% Macroeconomic releases 09:00 CEST – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks 09:55 CEST – German Unemployment Change Today’s session hypothesis Today, the price opened with pretty much the same gap size as yesterday, but in the opposite direction. The descending gap doesn’t have any strong statistics for closing, but this was very similar yesterday. As support levels, we identified zones laying around 12 922 and 11 861. These levels could have a significance in today’s price action development. If the price goes below 11 922, we estimate the retest of 11 861 with an increased probability. In the opposite scenario, our bias would only be the closure of the gap, targeting 11 965.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 28 May 2019 For yesterday we were more supportive of the buyers, but their strength didn’t last long. The sellers were able to correct the growing movement and eventually, Dax moved sideways. We closed at 12 064. The last trading hours were absolutely without volatility. Important zones Resistance: 12 142 Support: 12 064, 11 958, 11 922 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 39% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today began with an ascending gap of 41 points. The last two sessions are systematically rising to higher prices and today’s gap is a continuation of this action. Zones from the past analysis are still valid, so the first resistance that we should be careful about is 12 142 price. Today’s probabilities suggest not to close the gap and rather head higher. If the gap is closed, the price of 12 064 will now be a luxurious support level where new buyers can comfortably step in.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 15 May 2019For a change, yesterday’s session was in the hands of buyers. We first found some sellers at the resistance zone of 11 956 and they pushed the Dax some 50 points lower before buyers stepped in. Dax is opening with an ascending gap today. Important zones Resistance: 12 139 Support: 11 946 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 11:00 CEST – Eurozone – Flash GDP q/q Today’s session hypothesis Today, we expect buyers to continue in the correction with the first target laying at 12 190 and then 12 455 in the following days. The probability of closing the gap is not any high today, but the market structure of the recent days signifies the initial short. We could find some buyers at the support level of 11 964 which we could use as a bounce area to enter into a long position targeting 12 195. Sellers have a possible level of interest around the 12 139 zone.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
#BCH Volume Analysis Prediction 9/03/2018Hi, friends. The price is in the balance with the range 604-660. As long as the price is in the balance, we trade only from it borders. Otherwise, the stop loss will be your friend. If this balance goes up, with a high probability the price will breakout 700. First target - 710.8. If this balance goes down the price will fall to the support levels 575. This level is very important - it's key point. The way the price will behave at this level, will show us whether the price will continue to rise or fall. If the reaction is weak, without volume, the price will fall to 530. If there will be a large volume or/and the initiative of buyers, in this case we can try to buy after a little pullback, but not to sell from the outside border of the balance. Remember - trading is a game of probabilities. Glossary of terms Point of Control (P O C) – The price level for the time period with the highest traded volume . Value Area (V A) – The range of price levels in which a specified percentage of all volume was traded during the time period. Typically, this percentage is set to 70% however it is up to the trader’s discretion. Balance - Accumulation Area. F L - flat level. T L - trend level. Fixing (fix, culmination) - reverse price reaction then the markets stops i'ts movement for a short time. The trend stops when it passes through 1-3 fixing movement.
B
by mooncatcherpro
Lesson on trading, TA and RiskG'day Cobbers and Shobbers, How are we this morning, did many of you manage to make so profit yesterday? I will start with a quick talk about Edges and trading strategy and how to be profitable from your charts. First if you take a look at the chart linked below from yesterday you will notice I flipped outlooks as the day progressed, I also traded on these calls, some I got stopped out on at small losses, a few I made breakeven or small profit after fees, the last one I made a massive profit on, none of those trades were any better than the other. Seriously! You have to look at your trades in the same way a Casino runs, lets look at the Roulette table for example on a black/red bet, now the "Edge" the Casino has in this situation is the 0 00 on the wheel, which gives the player a 47% chance of winning , the house at 47% plus the edge (Around 6%%) This edge over 10 bets this edge won't net the Casino much or anything at all but over millions of games, you can see the potential for profit. Trading is the same, once you have a strategy and find an edge, weigh up the risk to reward ratio and it fits your plan, you trade it, win or lose it does not matter, because if you have a good solid strategy and solid risk and money management plan in place, the profit will come. Taking the emotion out of trading is the first thing you need to do to last, this also relates to doing Technical Analysis. To be good at TA, you need to do more than just study and draw lines, you need to take out any preconceived Bias you have towards the market, be fluid and not stubborn. Big Egos and know it alls always fail, they are unable to admit when they are wrong and end up missing subconsciously the triggers and patterns that are going against their analysis, they filter out all the noise that is not in their favor and look for that which confirms their biases. Just remember The Market can do anything. you can do your research, analyze and be confident in your trade to go in a certain direction but you can not expect it to, which is why we trade on probabilities, when you see an opportunity ( set by your strategy / Edge) you need to factor in all the data in front of you, decide if it fits your R/R ratio, find an entry and set an exit and stick to it, if you miss the entry then let it go and wait for the next opportunity, it may come back and you will get another chance. Know your exit (look for resistance/support) levels, factor these in with your strategy (be it breakouts or simple MA crosses) before you set you buys/sells and take profits along the way. Risk You will hear people talking about Risk all the time and it seems pretty simple but it isn't. A simple explanation can be setting Stops and not risking more than a percentage of your account equity but it is more than that and it also part of what makes markets move. Risk = Pain. Pain is what causes big runs, first goes the stop losses in a big move, then the overleveraged and then those whose pain threshold is pushed beyond the limits, you know this to be true, its why you end up selling off your position at the bottom and then it magically moves up again. This is why you don't risk more than you are willing to lose, and you really got to believe it or this pain will cause you to sell at the bottom, good traders don't deal with this pain because they trade within Risk, they trade without emotion, knowing that a loss matters not, they are a part of trading, your strategy, if followed properly will profit over time. Many fail because they don't follow their strategy, they over-leverage, the place position sizes way to large and small moves against there position causes pain, pain causes loss of confidence. You can see where I'm going with this. G'day Thanks for dropping by, hopefully, you garner something valuable from my post, be it educational or an idea towards a trade of your own. Please share, like and comment and engage with me, I am here to help.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by TroyByrne
10