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TSLA 60% Bull ProbabilityTSLA reversed up from a failed bear breakout and sell climax. The bulls have closed the exhaustion gap and created several potential breakout gaps around 200. The bulls now have a 60% chance of creating a second leg up and test of the middle of the upper trading range around 300. The bears need a strong breakout below the 180 higher low. The probability of this is 40%. Once prices get back into the 260-360 trading range, prices will once again return to a 50/50 directional probability. If the bulls continue to get strong consecutive closes, and the bears do not get any strong selling pressure, the probability will slightly favor the bulls for a test of the high of the range. To learn more about how to determine the directional probability and how to create a trade based on this, please see below. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by tradersmentality
Dax daily: 15 Jul 2019 Friday's price action ended prematurely, soon after the session opened and Dax fell by some 80 points. Following was a sideway movement and closing in the middle of the intra-day range. Today we open with an ascending gap which might soon be closed. Important zones Resistance: NIL Support: 12 277 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today's analysis will be slightly plain as Dax doesn't provide many clues for any further development. There is one notable support level nearby and this is laying at 12 277. There is no resistance to pinpoint, statistics idle and the price action is dull too. We wish you all a good start to this trading week and be safe in the markets.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 04 Jun 2019 There was no resistance formed at Friday’s close. On the other hand, the support level laying at 11 620 that we spoke about in previous analysis functioned as expected. We found a new low here and the control was taken back by buyers who took the price towards the resistance at 11 788. This price zone was also mentioned in our yesterday’s analysis and it turned out Dax respected that very nicely too. The price bounced back from there and the session ended at 11 740. Important zones Resistance: 11 788 Support: 11 620 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today’s session got open pretty much without a gap. The price hovers just below the important resistance level at 11 788 and it appears this could be retested again. Should the price go above that, the next target will be 11 860. If the price does not break 11 788, we anticipate the action below this level in the range of 11 620 – 11 788 without any significant volatility.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 03 Jun 2019 The last session of May closed in red numbers when the price continued its drop in the descending gap direction, just as we anticipated. Those last few bearish days erased all the gains from the past two months and we are now in the territory where the price was at the beginning of April this year. This confirms the known theory that bulls walk up the stairs, while bears jump out the window. Important zones Resistance: 11 788 Support: 11 620 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap today is only 30% Macroeconomic releases 09:15 – 10:00 CEST – Eurozone PMIs Today’s session hypothesis The first trading day of June started optimistic on Dax. Bulls are in a lead it appears they might have enough power to close the weekend gap. This one is sized 70 points and doesn’t close often. It is likely there is a weaker resistance level on Friday’s close, which could be a bounce point for further sells. Should the price descend below 11 620, it is likely we see further selling pressure.
XETR:DAX
by FTMO
Dax daily: 31 May 2019 As we anticipated, the support level of 11 861 held the price pretty strongly for the entire session and didn’t allow sellers to go any deeper. The gap was then closed and the intraday trading closed priced 11 918. Important zones Resistance: 11 861 Support: 11 735 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis After yesterday’s successful day for buyers, we came surprised to see the strength of the morning gap. This one is sized with some 140 points which is quite unusual. Dax has now entered the zone below the significant support levels and this is where the price was for the past two months. The first price action level where it is likely for the price to stall is the level laying around 11 735. With the gaps of such size, it is more likely the price continues in the gap direction and it’s close is then less probable.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 30 May 2019 Bearish momentum continued yet for another day in a row. After the open, Dax took a south direction and the price reached the support level of 11 861 without any problem. This level was retested a couple of times before the price eventually closed there. Yesterday’s price action took us to the low formed on 01 April. Important zones Resistance: 11 986, 12 063 Support: 11 861, 11 827 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 69% The statistical probability of breaking yesterday’s low is 96% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Although the trading is limited today in many countries due to the public holiday and Eurex is partially closed, Dax market is open as normal. For today, we have quite some interesting leads given by the Statistical application. The most important is the probability of 96% to break yesterday’s low and this could signify further downfalls. When we look at the chart from a longer time perspective, there is a lot of room for sellers after breaking the 11 861 barrier. As of now, this level functions well and holding the price. Let’s keep a sharp eye on how this situation evolves.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 29 May 2019 Bulls were facing a sad scenario yesterday as the selling pressures continued through the gap closure. The price stalled lower at the support level of 11 985. In the end, bears broke out that zone and Dax closed on its intra-day low at 11 965. Important zones Resistance: 12 063 Support: 11 861, 11 922 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 41% Macroeconomic releases 09:00 CEST – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks 09:55 CEST – German Unemployment Change Today’s session hypothesis Today, the price opened with pretty much the same gap size as yesterday, but in the opposite direction. The descending gap doesn’t have any strong statistics for closing, but this was very similar yesterday. As support levels, we identified zones laying around 12 922 and 11 861. These levels could have a significance in today’s price action development. If the price goes below 11 922, we estimate the retest of 11 861 with an increased probability. In the opposite scenario, our bias would only be the closure of the gap, targeting 11 965.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 28 May 2019 For yesterday we were more supportive of the buyers, but their strength didn’t last long. The sellers were able to correct the growing movement and eventually, Dax moved sideways. We closed at 12 064. The last trading hours were absolutely without volatility. Important zones Resistance: 12 142 Support: 12 064, 11 958, 11 922 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 39% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today began with an ascending gap of 41 points. The last two sessions are systematically rising to higher prices and today’s gap is a continuation of this action. Zones from the past analysis are still valid, so the first resistance that we should be careful about is 12 142 price. Today’s probabilities suggest not to close the gap and rather head higher. If the gap is closed, the price of 12 064 will now be a luxurious support level where new buyers can comfortably step in.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 15 May 2019For a change, yesterday’s session was in the hands of buyers. We first found some sellers at the resistance zone of 11 956 and they pushed the Dax some 50 points lower before buyers stepped in. Dax is opening with an ascending gap today. Important zones Resistance: 12 139 Support: 11 946 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 11:00 CEST – Eurozone – Flash GDP q/q Today’s session hypothesis Today, we expect buyers to continue in the correction with the first target laying at 12 190 and then 12 455 in the following days. The probability of closing the gap is not any high today, but the market structure of the recent days signifies the initial short. We could find some buyers at the support level of 11 964 which we could use as a bounce area to enter into a long position targeting 12 195. Sellers have a possible level of interest around the 12 139 zone.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
#BCH Volume Analysis Prediction 9/03/2018Hi, friends. The price is in the balance with the range 604-660. As long as the price is in the balance, we trade only from it borders. Otherwise, the stop loss will be your friend. If this balance goes up, with a high probability the price will breakout 700. First target - 710.8. If this balance goes down the price will fall to the support levels 575. This level is very important - it's key point. The way the price will behave at this level, will show us whether the price will continue to rise or fall. If the reaction is weak, without volume, the price will fall to 530. If there will be a large volume or/and the initiative of buyers, in this case we can try to buy after a little pullback, but not to sell from the outside border of the balance. Remember - trading is a game of probabilities. Glossary of terms Point of Control (P O C) – The price level for the time period with the highest traded volume . Value Area (V A) – The range of price levels in which a specified percentage of all volume was traded during the time period. Typically, this percentage is set to 70% however it is up to the trader’s discretion. Balance - Accumulation Area. F L - flat level. T L - trend level. Fixing (fix, culmination) - reverse price reaction then the markets stops i'ts movement for a short time. The trend stops when it passes through 1-3 fixing movement.
B
by mooncatcherpro
Lesson on trading, TA and RiskG'day Cobbers and Shobbers, How are we this morning, did many of you manage to make so profit yesterday? I will start with a quick talk about Edges and trading strategy and how to be profitable from your charts. First if you take a look at the chart linked below from yesterday you will notice I flipped outlooks as the day progressed, I also traded on these calls, some I got stopped out on at small losses, a few I made breakeven or small profit after fees, the last one I made a massive profit on, none of those trades were any better than the other. Seriously! You have to look at your trades in the same way a Casino runs, lets look at the Roulette table for example on a black/red bet, now the "Edge" the Casino has in this situation is the 0 00 on the wheel, which gives the player a 47% chance of winning , the house at 47% plus the edge (Around 6%%) This edge over 10 bets this edge won't net the Casino much or anything at all but over millions of games, you can see the potential for profit. Trading is the same, once you have a strategy and find an edge, weigh up the risk to reward ratio and it fits your plan, you trade it, win or lose it does not matter, because if you have a good solid strategy and solid risk and money management plan in place, the profit will come. Taking the emotion out of trading is the first thing you need to do to last, this also relates to doing Technical Analysis. To be good at TA, you need to do more than just study and draw lines, you need to take out any preconceived Bias you have towards the market, be fluid and not stubborn. Big Egos and know it alls always fail, they are unable to admit when they are wrong and end up missing subconsciously the triggers and patterns that are going against their analysis, they filter out all the noise that is not in their favor and look for that which confirms their biases. Just remember The Market can do anything. you can do your research, analyze and be confident in your trade to go in a certain direction but you can not expect it to, which is why we trade on probabilities, when you see an opportunity ( set by your strategy / Edge) you need to factor in all the data in front of you, decide if it fits your R/R ratio, find an entry and set an exit and stick to it, if you miss the entry then let it go and wait for the next opportunity, it may come back and you will get another chance. Know your exit (look for resistance/support) levels, factor these in with your strategy (be it breakouts or simple MA crosses) before you set you buys/sells and take profits along the way. Risk You will hear people talking about Risk all the time and it seems pretty simple but it isn't. A simple explanation can be setting Stops and not risking more than a percentage of your account equity but it is more than that and it also part of what makes markets move. Risk = Pain. Pain is what causes big runs, first goes the stop losses in a big move, then the overleveraged and then those whose pain threshold is pushed beyond the limits, you know this to be true, its why you end up selling off your position at the bottom and then it magically moves up again. This is why you don't risk more than you are willing to lose, and you really got to believe it or this pain will cause you to sell at the bottom, good traders don't deal with this pain because they trade within Risk, they trade without emotion, knowing that a loss matters not, they are a part of trading, your strategy, if followed properly will profit over time. Many fail because they don't follow their strategy, they over-leverage, the place position sizes way to large and small moves against there position causes pain, pain causes loss of confidence. You can see where I'm going with this. G'day Thanks for dropping by, hopefully, you garner something valuable from my post, be it educational or an idea towards a trade of your own. Please share, like and comment and engage with me, I am here to help.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by TroyByrne
10
BTC _ USD 4hrI posted BTC ideia 11days ago whit this "Good entry its SMA 200 (6.2k - 6.5k) " "short and mid Targets (resistances) T1 - 8.5k T2 - 10k T3 - 11k T4 - 12.7k " Ok rick, but what happened? BTC made a good reversal from that point, its already 80% up from that level and hit target 1,2,3! now we are waiting to another decision, we are trying to break BIG downtrend line (red) its a fucking important zone, we still in a rising wedge and its a bear formation! so we are charting probablies scenarios. 1- Breakdown rising wedge and back to 8.5k level (first target) 2- Breakup RED line and show us a strong move to break this rising wedge ( its hard to breakup rising wedge but can happen) 3- BTC ignore this rising wedge formation and go sideways consolidating around 10k-11k 4- fail to breakup RED line form a double or triple top then fall to 8.5k area So if u are following me and my advice and u bought BTC arround 6.5k area u are looking to lock some profit in this run, I recommend u wait for next BTC decision then lock some profits to buy cheaper. 11.3k its a good area to lock profit if we don't breakup if u are looking to buy BTC I recommend to wait next move because its most easy to breakdown this rising wedge and back to 8.5k area (old resistance , new support)
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoRICK442
Riding the bullish momentum of the USDCAD - daytrade/intradayThroughout this entire year, USDCAD has been rallying which can confirmed on the larger timeframes such as monthly, weekly and daily. I'm basing this trade based off of that momentum and on a simple trend-contination setup. As you can see, price has been consolidating this past week and along with all the momentum n volume today coming because of greece, Im expecting this to go higher with a target of around 1.2800 - around 80 pip profit
Long
by ppp7
ENIP Good Reward to Risk Trade BullishTaking a recent swing low and swing high, the risk reward tool can measure potential profit to risk when stopped out and give the reward to risk ratio. Moving the mouse over the shaded area, here we see we can potentially make 375% while risking only 32.14% or in other words the ratio is 11.67, which is excellent. Any time one can use this tool to find a trade that has a ratio of 3 or more, that is great. It makes the odds so that effectively one could take every trade and have it be a coin toss winning half the time for 3x the bet and losing half the time for all the bet, and not care about it because the trades would breakeven with no loss all together. So even the slightest edge where it be due dilligence or trading system or indicator to make those trades even slightly better than a coin toss, then a profit is made. During backtesting trading techniques, if something is found that works 60-70% of the time that's great. Use it with trade setups that are reward to risk ratio over 3. That is a profitable way to make money trading. Whatever trading system is used it doesn't have to be super-perfect, complex, fancy, or better than anyone else, just "good enough" is fine.
ELong
by trademan1