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Probability

How To Trade Probability Ranges The Critical Rule of 1/3Using the Rule of Thirds to Master Probabilities in trading and investing ranges -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stocks typically remaining in consolidation ranges 70% of the time while trending the remainder. Using the rule of thirds, we can use statistics, prior price action and the probabilities of success to determine when to enter trades where the odds are stacked in our favor. 1) We start by finding a stock that is in a consolidation range, and identify the nearest important support and important resistance levels based on your targeted trading timeframe. 2 ) We take the range between the support and resistance levels and divide it into thirds, so we have three zones within the consolidation range. 3) When going long, you want to BUY the stock when it is within the bottom third or the zone from support to the 1st third level. Once you buy, your objectives are to hold during the middle third of the range, and sell during the top third. When you buy in the first third, this gives you a 66 percent chance of success. If you buy in the second third of the range, you only have a 50/50 chance of success. Going long in the top third of the range, gives you only a 33% chance of success because you are already close to the resistance level. When going short, the sequence and odds are reversed. You sell during the top third of the range, hold during the middle third and exit in the bottom third. This again gives you a 66% chance of success when you enter in the top third, 50/50 chance if you enter in the middle third, and a 33% chance of success if you enter in the bottom third as you are already close to the support zone. ****Using this simple trick, you can quickly evaluate trades based on probabilities and selectively enter trades where the odds of success are the highest and avoid likely losing trades. The rule of thirds also also gives you the confidence to continue to hold trades based on previous important ranges, and provides clear levels where the stock is likely to either reverse or start trending. Hope It Helps to your Trading & Investing Success Marc
FTX:MATICUSDEducation
by PowerIndicators
9
How to Calculate Probability in Price So many have asked for tutorials on some quant strategies. So this is my first tutorial for some basic quant trading strategies. This is not really a strategy in and of itself, this is to help you determine realistic price points as part of your overall strategy. You will need Excel to do this. If you like this kind of tutorial/find it helpful, let me know and I can continue posting similar stuff on how to apply some more basic quant strategies into your trading. Take care and trade safe!
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Steversteves
7
How To Use Risk:Reward Like A ProWhatsup my friends In this video I will be covering my risk:reward model and how I can use it to generate an edge in the market. In this specific backtesting session, I used 0.5:2 risk:reward with TP at 4RR for every trade. I got pretty good results - but remember this is simulated and it's easier to perform better. However, don't take this type of training lightly - this is the best way to improve as a trader. The next step would be to actually start journaling your trades and analyzing everything at a deeper level. I hope you enjoyed this! Cheers Dil
Education
by justlivingmylife
The Ace Spectrum as a Template for Support ProjectionDemonstrating the big idea: That straight lines in log-space form exponential curves. This property of the log chart is useful for examining assets with exponential growth (like high-growth stocks, cryptos, etc). Because the log scale asymptotically approaches the absolute scale as y slice decreases, this indicator is really applicable to any time scale. This indicator samples a distribution of lines from the past and projects them into the future, these projected lines form indicators of prior support. The idea is longer support at those specific lines is indicative of support strength, which this indicator approximately captures. My initial goal was to capture this intuition about exponential growth in log spaces by applying a monte-carlo style sampling approach to visualize the latent support lines. After I had captured that in a slightly more complex version of this indicator, my goal was to distill the concept into the simplest possible implementation.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by sheganinans
15
The Indians could be in trouble - againThis is a 2H time frame set up. I show how this could be worth a shot south or a shot north (subject to your acceptable loss). The estimated probability south is 55% - which leaves 45% for the north. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile, and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
IShort
by Captain_Walker
GOLD (XAUUSD) - 2H Trend PositionI explain why on this particular time frame the 2H at this point in time there is a greater probability for the south. Please note carefully for every probability estimate in one direction, there is a residual probability in the opposite direction (e.g. if 51% for the south there is a 49% chance for the north). There is no way I know to accurately assess or measure probability in any particular direction. In other videos I showed how many missed the Gold storm (for the north). Disclaimer : Whist the position shown is advantageous in probability terms for the south in my estimation, there is a clear indication of loss. I could be wrong - as I am a lot of the time. This means if you short this and lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by Captain_Walker
The Loonie in troubleIn this screencast I show how waiting for a key position in the market is good idea. As I always say, 'Stalk 90% trade 10%'. The CAD - often referred to as 'the Loonie' (not by me) has been in some trouble across many currency pairs. I'm not interested 'why'. All I care is where the trend is going and key areas of opportunity and probability. As strange as it sounds, not trading is actually a winning strategy. So for newtraders especially, don't feel that if you're not in a trade that you're missing something. You are actually wise.
Education
by Captain_Walker