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S&P500 got as complex as it could get: symmetrical triangle?!The month of August was very hard to forecast, track and therewith reliable trade as price raced back and forth in a 120p range on the S&P500. Life would be very easy if we'd known beforehand this would happen. But how could one know!? After several back-and-forth races the triangle option became more and more likely and today's price action combined with Friday's adds more certainty to this potential. Because remember that the market always has options to chose from at any moment in time, and it is up to us analysts to try to elucidate which option is the most likely. Unfortunately, triangles are one of the hardest to forecast and track. It's not until at least three legs have completed that it starts to move up the list from "possible" to "probable" and when the fourth leg completes it is then much more "likely". Note that triangles can even have nine legs... Because for all we know, price could have done a simple a,b,c corrective move in the form of a zigzag or flat. So we need to track all these options at first and eliminate them one by one as more market data becomes available. So, after you have read this it should become clear there are NO certainties in the markets. If you want certainty, please put your money in a savings account. If you can come to grips with this uncertainty, and realize that Elliott wave is thus a great forecasting tool that can track multiple options at the same time, and where if/then scenarios based on price breaking above or below a certain price level help eliminate options and that those price levels can help you in your trading for profit taking and/or stop(losses), then you're really starting to master your understanding of how markets work. With that in mind, let's look at the options currently available. The first is that the S&P500 has completed classic symmetrical triangle. It is a continuation pattern, meaning that the move going into the triangle will continue. In this case it was the move from 3029 DOWN to 2822 that was the initiation move. Assuming SPX2939 was the top of the b-wave, then simple symmetry targets: 2939 - (3029-2822) = 2732. Applying triangle "rules", then depending on where exactly price will move below the lower trendline of the triangle -say at 2829- then we're looking for 2622. So we have a SPX2732-2622 target zone, which we can refine once more price data becomes available. The other options the market still has at this moment is to complete a diagonal pattern (labeled as "alt: 3", alt: 4"). A simple 5=1 then targets SPX2957. This would best count as what is called an ending diagonal in Elliott wave terms as the sub-waves count best as 3s and not 5s. A break and close below SPX2890 will take IMHO this option off the table. Note how price so far pretty much bottomed right there today... keeping us guessing a bit longer... ;-) Lastly, and as said, triangles can even have nine legs... so although at this stage I don't find that pattern very likely, we should simply be aware of that option and keep it in mind until disproved. Trade safe!
SP:SPX
by intelligent_investing
5
Dax daily: 27 Aug 2019 Monday's session started with a sharp upside move. As expected, sellers entered the market at our resistance level of 11 611 to correct the uprun, but not for long. The same scenario occurred once more at the following resistance zone of 11 645 which also didn't have long lasting. The 11 611 zone functioned as the support for another bullish push towards the end of the intraday session. Important zones Resistance: 11 707 Support: 11 561 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 83% The statistical probability of closing outside of yesterday's session is 83% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today we have a strong statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high. Right above this level, we have a nice resistance zone at 11 707 where we may anticipate seeing some bearish correction. Nevertheless, there is another strong card for the bullish sentiment as the statistics suggest the price is likely to close outside of yesterday's range. As always, we advise all traders to be vigilant and have a clear trade plan.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 23 Aug 2019 Our yesterday's analysis turned out absolutely successful. Dax bounced from our mentioned trendline, broken Wednesday'shigh and then returned to Wednesday's range, which had a statistical probability of 77%. Today we open with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 899 Support: 11 759 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases USA - Jackson Hole Symposium Today's session hypothesis We could see some sellers from the beginning of the session taking Dax towards the support zone of 11 759 and see the correction towards 11 899 which is just a stone throw away. Before we break yesterday's high and iIf 11 759 doesn't hold the price, then the bearish target is at 11 630.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
1
Dax daily: 30 Jul 2019 Exactly as we predicted yesterday, the statistics proved their strengths yet again. We couldn't be happier as these historical calculations have huge success! Dax broke through Friday's high, which had a probability of 87% and therefore we've labelled the analysis with a bullish bias. After the high was broken, sellers corrected the price action just to hand over the momentum for another daily uptrend. The price then closed midway its intraday range. Important zones Resistance: 12 480 Support: 12 368 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax opened with a small ascending gap which is already closed at the time we write this. The session today seems to be a slow one, the price is in the consolidation area. From our point of view, today's chances are equal for long & short. Nevertheless, sellers rejected the first resistance at 12 464 yesterday so we rather incline to favour shorting. Buyers could appear around 12 368 right after the retest of yesterday's low and sellers could be sound at the known resistance of 12 480.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
EURUSD 50/50 market Tight Trading Range Continues The bulls reversed the market up in two small legs (Jun 3, Jun 24) from the nested wedge bottom. Last week formed a second entry for a potential larger second leg up where the Jun 24 rally is the first. However this has not yet triggered and today is currently a bear bar near the low of last week. If this week closes as a bear bar, it will be a weaker buy setup and decrease the probability. The bulls did not get strong consecutive bars. Instead prices mostly overlapped with heavy two sided trading. This is not indicative of a strong new low. The probability remains unchanged in a 50/50 market. Any breakout up or down is likely to get sucked back before succeeding. Until there is a breakout, there is no breakout and neither side is in control. The bears may end up getting a larger third leg down comparable to the 24 Sep - Nov 12 and Jan 7 - May 20 legs. This would form a larger wedge bull flag and increase the probability to 60% for a test of the start of the bear channel around the Sep 24 high. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions. See more at my website on how to learn to identify probabilities, create an edge, and develop your traders mentality.
by tradersmentality
The Hardest Part of Trading (What is rarely said)Seeking More information - When first introduced to markets, every beginner immediately thinks he must learn the rules of the market in order to succeed. He thinks he loses because he does not know enough. He initially believes there is a "holy grail" a system, a leader, or a mathematical equation like Fibonacci levels. He believes these will protect him in the market, and will lead him to a profit once he understands them. The problem is, there are no set rules which work consistently in the market. If there were, the institutions and everyone else would simply use them. What would happen then? Well, there would be no one or institution to take the opposite trade, and the market would cease to exist altogether. And so the new trader changes from one system to another, from one guru to another, and constantly thinks he must learn more information in order to succeed. What he believes to be preventing his success is a lack of knowledge, a lack of information. But you see, the more information you have does not necessarily lead to better decisions. There is a lot of evidence to support the contrary, and suggests that too many choices actually impair decision making skills. On top of this, most of the information in the trading world is quite simply wrong. There are 10 x more scam artists who claim to "know" and will take your money to teach you how to trade than there are profitable traders. Beware of anyone who claims to know anything. They are either fooling themselves, or fooling you. These people do not understand markets or them selves, and cannot make money in the market, so instead they prey on new market entrants. This is the primary reason I started my trading website; to provide high value information at a low cost. And to give those who are serious about trading an actual chance to make it in the markets, without ignoring a key variable; your self. Dealing with Uncertainty - The reason most traders seek new information is because they are afraid of uncertainty and want certainty. They seek something to protect them in the market. Something to protect them from themselves. A system that will guarantee a profit. But there is no such thing. Markets constantly change and evolve through the market cycle. And there is no system that works across all three parts of the market cycle. No matter how convinced you are of something happening in the market, there is always at least a 30-40% chance of the exact opposite happening. This means even the strongest edge has a failure rate. The sooner you realize and accept this, the closer you will be to making a consistent profit. It is very hard to learn how to deal with uncertainty. But you do it every day. When you wake up in the morning are you certain you will live through the end of the day? Are you certain you will still have a job tomorrow by working for a reputable company? No, and you can never be completely certain of this. Certainty is an illusion. There is no certainty in this life. The only certainty is... uncertainty! Patience and Discipline (Ability to Do Nothing) - Every profitable trader uses these two terms (patience and discipline) when asked how they are profitable. When a beginner hears this, he rarely understands what this means. Discipline means doing something even when you dont want to do it, or doing something you dont want to do. Patience means waiting for your turn, or waiting for something to happen. But we all want to trade right? Yes of course, that is what we do as traders. But having discipline means not trading when the trading is not good, even though you want to. And having patience means waiting for the good trading to return again. In other words, when the time is not right you must do nothing. If your edge is not present; there is no edge and no action to make. When the market is not offering what you want, or is confusing, you must develop the ability to wait, and do nothing until the time is right again. This idea of "doing nothing" stokes a fear in most people, especially in todays give me distractions, social media world. They say "Well what am i supposed to do if i am doing nothing?" Doing nothing seems contrary to getting what you want, getting somewhere. In and outside of the trading world everyone believes in order to be a "trader" you must trade - constantly. This is why most traders lose money. Because they do not understand that there is a time for doing absolutely nothing. And that time is most of the time! See more on understanding markets (Price Action Trading) and yourself (Trading Psychology)at my website below. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
Education
by tradersmentality
20
Dax daily: 16 Jul 2019 Monday's session started wild and many traders were facing problems with unexpected volatility. Dax first spiked upwards quite prudently, just to correct itself soon after. If you remember, we suggested not to trade yesterday as the price development was unpredictable. Good to those who took a break. Dax also broke both Friday's low and high, which had a very low probability. Today we open with a smaller descending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12494 Support: 12 350 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 11:00 CEST - German ZEW Economic sentiment Today's session hypothesis Today we can expect the breakout of yesterday's high, which has a slightly increased statistical probability of 64% and then we'll await the retest of resistance zone at 12 494 and closing outside of yesterday's range. We hope to find buyers around 12 350 which is an intraday support level from yesterday. Should the price break yesterday's high and return right into a Monday's range, it is likely Dax will slow down and oscillate.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
TSLA 60% Bull ProbabilityTSLA reversed up from a failed bear breakout and sell climax. The bulls have closed the exhaustion gap and created several potential breakout gaps around 200. The bulls now have a 60% chance of creating a second leg up and test of the middle of the upper trading range around 300. The bears need a strong breakout below the 180 higher low. The probability of this is 40%. Once prices get back into the 260-360 trading range, prices will once again return to a 50/50 directional probability. If the bulls continue to get strong consecutive closes, and the bears do not get any strong selling pressure, the probability will slightly favor the bulls for a test of the high of the range. To learn more about how to determine the directional probability and how to create a trade based on this, please see below. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by tradersmentality
Dax daily: 10 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session turned out to follow our hypothesis only partially. Dax started its decline towards 12 391, but buyers didn't use this level to enter the market. Following was a descend towards the second support zone in a row, laying at 12 326, yet this price wasn't reached and Dax reversed upwards. In the end, Dax closed approximately in the middle of its range. The support level of 12 391 functioned properly after a pullback at 2:30pm. Important zones Resistance: 12 500 Support: 12 326 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases USA - 20:00 CEST - FOMC Meeting Minutes Today's session hypothesis Today we have a very high statistical probability for closing the gap. We could also expect the resistance at 12 500 being retested and attracting sellers. Yesterday's high breakout has a probability of 64% . Another nice zone nearby is the support level at 12 326 where we might see a bullish correction. Also, we have a higher probability of 77% for closing inside yesterday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 08 Jul 2019 Welcome to the first session analysis of a new week. Friday's price action has been quite fruitful. For a major session duration, Dax was dropping towards a consolidation zone from 02 July, where we found buyers and the price closed somewhere mid-range session trading. The US NFP was released at 14:30, but besides one volatile candle, no major reaction was seen. Today, the price opens with a significant short gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 564, 12 607 Support: 12 391 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today we could see the price ascending and closing the gap at 12 564. On this level, reversal or correction is very likely. Our major target in the upcoming days is very clear and this is the retest of the unclosed gap laying at 12 391. Should the price go below 12 469, it is likely the downside momentum might accelerate. If we don't see aggressive sellers at 12 564, we might rather see a slow-down inside Friday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
1
Dax daily: 04 Jul 2019 Welcome to the last analysis of this week. Tomorrow's analysis will be skipped due to a national holiday. Yesterday's statistics for breaking Tuesday's high was successfully passed. Dax rose all day and closed near its intra-day high. Today, we open with a smaller descending gap. Important zones Resistance: NIL Support: 12 597, 12 543 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 90% Macroeconomic releases USA - National holiday of Independence day Today's session hypothesis Today's plan is pretty straight forward. Just as yesterday, we have an increased statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high, hence all the trades have a clear target. We could find some buyers at 12 597 or even lower at 12 543. In case bulls are aggressive enough, it is likely they will start aiming higher right from the beginning of the session.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 26 Jun 2019 We welcome all to a mid-week analysis. The support level at 12 191 we mentioned yesterday functioned perfectly as this was retested right after the open. Contrary, the resistance zone of 12 230 didn't have much significance. Dax found some bearish pressures at a higher price of 12 266 and following was a downside move to a very near intra-day low. Important zones Resistance: 12 282 Support: 12 120, 12 049 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability for breaking yesterday's low is 83% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, our major key for establishing the price projection is the high statistical probability for the breakout of yesterday's low. Hence all sell positions have a clearly defined target. Another target to keep an eye on is the support level around 12 120 where we hope to find some buyers.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 25 Jun 2019 Yesterday's session met our expectations. We've had a very high probability for breaking Friday's low, which eventually happened. Dax was steadily in a slight downtrend for the whole session and the price closed near the support level of 12 219. Today, Dax opened below this zone with a descending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 230 Support: 12 191, 12 120 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today we expect the entrance of buyers right at 12 191, which is now being retested. We target closing the gap too. If there are no buyers at 12 191, the momentum could escalate towards 12 120. Should the market participants stay within yesterday's range, the price action is likely to slow down or oscillate within that range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 11 Jun 2019 Yesterday, we expected a retest of 12 139 and the drop towards the trend line. Dax did not reach all the way towards the resistance zone, but the return to 12 046 level worked well. The market met both of our indications – the support zone of 12 046 and the trend line. Bulls were not strong enough in the afternoon session and the price closed slightly negative at 12 084. Important zones Resistance: 12 139 Support: 12 046 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability to close the gap is only 38% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis The price opened with an ascending gap sized 50 points, right at the mentioned resistance level. The statistical probabilities incline the gap closure is unlikely for today’s session and this indicates a bullish bias. Should the uptrend be formed and confirmed, we estimate the price is to reach 12 207 level.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 10 Jun 2019 Welcome everybody to a new trading week. Friday’s session started according to our expectation by closing the gap and the price went slowly up. At 2:30 pm we’ve had the US Non-Farm Payrolls release which caused a couple of volatile candles. Later in the afternoon session, Dax significantly slowed down as participants closed the week with the NFP moves. Today, the price opens with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 139 Support: 12 046, trend line Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today, we could retest the resistance at 12 139 where we hope to find some sellers correcting the price back to retest the 12 046 level. If the resistance at 12 139 isn’t strong enough and buyers prove their bullish momentum, it is likely to retest the price zone of 12 207. If sellers don’t find enough reasons to be aggressive right from the 12 046 level, their appearance might be felt somewhere around the nice trend line.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
$FB Mr.Zuckerg I gotta good feeling about you. FB looking bullish here entered long position on bounce off 164.14 support. Targets 1 2 and 3 highlighted in green. Need to see how price reacts at 171 level. Break of that level for continued bullishness and 188 target. If rejected at 171 level may see retest of 152 level. Bearish scenerio although is double rejection at 171.40 area. High probability of gap getting filled at 152 before any further bullish actions. I personally am long. Let us see what is decided.
NASDAQ:METALong
by HighProbabilityTrader