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Probability

BTC USD LongGiven the recent drop in bitcoin price many would be skeptical to buy. However that's not what traders should be doing in my opinion and here is my reasoning why: Bitcoin had reached this price level before mainstream investors heard about the explosive rise on it's price, this means people who actually knew about bitcoin fundamentals were getting on board with the rally and were thinking this price was justified. As more and more people began to hear about this currency being on a long-lasting bull market the price began to rise exponentially creating a bobble. Now with a drop of 80% bitcoin has surpassed the the mean of a bull market by a large mark. Although I don't know the standard deviation of bull markets I think it's safe to say it's at least 1 standard deviation away from the mean. Therefore Bitcoin would be in a range of which P(x) = 0.3 therefore there is a 70% probability price will begin to reverse soon, although right now the entry is quite risky and waiting for a better price is advised
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DarkMessiah777
The Loonie in troubleIn this screencast I show how waiting for a key position in the market is good idea. As I always say, 'Stalk 90% trade 10%'. The CAD - often referred to as 'the Loonie' (not by me) has been in some trouble across many currency pairs. I'm not interested 'why'. All I care is where the trend is going and key areas of opportunity and probability. As strange as it sounds, not trading is actually a winning strategy. So for newtraders especially, don't feel that if you're not in a trade that you're missing something. You are actually wise.
Education
by Captain_Walker
DASHUSD LONG POST ANALYSIS DASHUSD POST ANALYSIS I had posted a trade idea on DASHUSD on August 27th stating that I believed there was a good potential long opportunity approaching in the market. If you look at the daily time frame on DASHUSD you can see that there was a very strong push by the buyers on August 27th and that had immediately caught my attention. Remember that the #1 sign of REVERSAL is POWER so when you see such a strong push by either a buyer or seller, especially on such a significant time frame KEEP AN EYE OUT, there may be something the market is trying to tell you. On this trade it was a pretty simple setup. The chart that I'm posting for my post-analysis was the approach I took. Price had just POPPED through structure on the 4H with such strong momentum causing a breach of that structure. I waited to make sure price was going to hold above it so it wasn't a fake-out, and based on the momentum I had a feeling that it was going too. I waited for the pullback back into structure by the sellers, waited for buyer interest again around the 175 levels, I got it and it was good to go from there! Target was hit at 215 price level! I always make sure to keep all of my trades simple. I approach the market with every trade being a high probable trade setup and also a business decision. I decided that this pair was at a good price along with momentum and I decided to take the opportunity. Remember that everybody is different in trading. My style might not fit your style but I hope it can add some value to your trading! Please like and follow my page to get more trade ideas here on TradingView! Cheers! On to the next one!
POLONIEX:DASHUSDLong
by JosePips
3
BTCUSD POTENTIAL LONG (short term opportunity) 1H BTCUSD POTENTIAL LONG 1D Chart: * price is sitting at a recent significant structure level *buyer seems to be showing slight interest already at this level 4H Chart: *Price shows large green(buyer) candle to the upside at this level of structure *Price ended with a higher high higher close on 4H candle WITH momentum 1H Chart: *Price had LARGE buyer push to the upside *Price broke a recent level of structure to the upside *Buyers are showing strong interest in Bitcoin at the price 6100 Entry: * Look to enter IF we see a weak pullback from the sellers. We want a weak pullback because in trading it comes down to probability and if the sellers came in strong it wouldn't be a clear probable setup on the buy side. *Wait for buyer to show interest again at price around the structure point 6250-6200 also the 50-61.8% fib if you trade with Fibonacci levels. Targets: 6580, 6700, 6900 Stop: 6000 price point REMEMBER this is a short term outlook. This does NOT mean that Bitcoin will for sure rise. This analysis is based on momentum, structure, and probability of the pullback(which hasn't happened yet). Make sure with every trade to stay disciplined with what you like trading and with proper risk management. Never risk more than 2% of capital. Make sure to always have a good risk/reward. Cheers!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by JosePips
1
Trading Psychology 5 Edge ExecutionEdge Execution Trading is a numbers game, and markets are based on the mathematics of the traders equation. However, understanding this alone will not guarantee profits. The ability to apply and conform to the math of the current market context is what leads to consistent profits. Beginners often have a misconecption that they need to know what is going to happen over the period of the next X number of bars in order to make a profit. They believe they must enter at the exact right time and price in order to win on a trade. This could not be further from the truth, and anyone consistenly making money from the markets knows the reality. The reality is a trader does not need to know what is going to happen next in order to make a profit. In fact, a professional trader knows that any given trade is irrelevant to the bigger picture, and an income is generated over a series of trades; not any single trade. This menatlity is past the duality of winning and losing, which are simply accepted as part of the job. This can be called the "probability mindset." Profits are generated over a series of trades, not any single trade. Therefore, it is not necessary to make money on every trade, every day, or even every month to be a succesful trader. It takes time to build confidence, believe this is true and fully understand this concept. Perhaps this is why most traders fail, by giving up before coming to this realization. It has been said that professional traders have "Won the game before they started playing." (Jack Swagger). This confidence can only come from the probability mindset, when a trader accepts he may lose on this trade, the day, or even this year. But he accepts his risk, and trusts the math that over time he will generate a profit. Even if he takes a large loss, or several, it does not matter; he knows he will make it back up. The overall point of this is that losses are part of the trading process. If a trade is a loser, it does not matter; move on to the next trade. Dwelling on losses or a drawdown does not bring the money back, but continuing to trade does. In this sense it can be said that a successful trader "trades his way out of a drawdown." It is helpful to think of losses as the "cost of doing business" just like any other business would incur expenses while conducting its operations. There are very few (if any) businesses that do not require heavy start up costs, or capital to continue the business while generating profits. Ever heard the saying "It takes money to make money?" Trading is no different, although most traders fail to realize this, and focus solely on profits. In trading, our costs are commissions and losses, which are offset by gains, resulting in a net profit. Employing your Edge So what does this have to do with exeucting an edge? Well, it is necessary to understand not every trade is a guranteed success, and there is a random distribution between wins and losses, with any edge. Even the best setup or edge will result in a loss 30-40% of the time. It is virtually impossible to know in advance, which trade will win and which will lose. Therefore it is absolutely imperative to take every trade that meets a traders edge, regardless of how the trader feels, thinks, or any other variables unrelated to the edge. With this said, here are the basic steps to exeucting and employing an edge. 1). Identify edge. Pick a setup (second entry, wedge reversal, follow through bar, ect.) It is a good idea to start with one until familiar with reading prices. 2). Ask yourself at the close of every bar "Is my edge present?" If no, wait. If yes, enter the trade. 3). Execute the edge with a series of 10 or 20 trades, document every trade. At the end of the series analyze results and tweak. Wishing you the best of luck on your trading journey -Josh Ridenour
Education
by tradersmentality
1
BTCUSD Bullish CaseThere is a possibility for a triple bottom and potential reversal. Let's see how this plays out. This is not forecast unlike my other charts, just an idea/possibility that has a realistic chance to come to fruition. People called 4k when we hit 6k bottom and where I bought, people called for 4.8k at 6.45k where I bought, people called for 5k at 6.1k where I bought (few days ago, as seen from my post in other chart), likewise I sold at the tops when people called for moon. So, I feel pretty confident and like to keep all possibilities open and I think 13k is realistic and will be met someday and this third time has the highest chance. If it fails, then we can look at the gold chart how this will look like, which I highly doubt, since big money has not entered yet.
Long
by CryptoSwindle
10
$5400 Buy Opportunity Tomorrow?! [BUBBLE UPDATE]Hey guys. Update on the old bubble coin. I mean bitcoin <3 Its in free fall again. At least for now. I'm expecteing to buy back in early this week around $5400. Ride it back up on even lower volume and sell off at 7300 territory mid summer. I'm still a believer that we need to retest this major trend line on the log-scale before we can make higher highs. Might be a while but thats just how it is sometimes. Hope everyone inst too hurt. We are riding a bear but we'll tame her. Best of luck and Digibybe > EOS <3 With Love, No_L
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by AdamNo_L
2
Opened Mar29 Apr20 169P 177C double calendar on 3/13/18www.tradingview.com IV rank a little high on this max risk is the debit until the front month expiration debit 2.36 Theta 3.54 Underlying price when opened 173.20 Upper and Lower expected move 167.70 176.90 break evens 167 and 180 gives a little more room above With the break even points being clearly outside of the expected move (per implied volatilty which is often overstated anyway) this trade has a high probability of profit. I will close it before expiration no matter what. www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Tom1trader