USDJPYDepending on how the week opens, I'm looking to short the retace back to trendline support before going long UJ
Probability
BTUSD LONG to 7500Nice byplay with the EMA for a while with a number of rejections.
Probability says 7507 is T1, T2 at 7581.
DASHUSD LONG POST ANALYSIS DASHUSD POST ANALYSIS
I had posted a trade idea on DASHUSD on August 27th stating that I believed there was a good potential long opportunity approaching in the market. If you look at the daily time frame on DASHUSD you can see that there was a very strong push by the buyers on August 27th and that had immediately caught my attention. Remember that the #1 sign of REVERSAL is POWER so when you see such a strong push by either a buyer or seller, especially on such a significant time frame KEEP AN EYE OUT, there may be something the market is trying to tell you.
On this trade it was a pretty simple setup. The chart that I'm posting for my post-analysis was the approach I took. Price had just POPPED through structure on the 4H with such strong momentum causing a breach of that structure. I waited to make sure price was going to hold above it so it wasn't a fake-out, and based on the momentum I had a feeling that it was going too. I waited for the pullback back into structure by the sellers, waited for buyer interest again around the 175 levels, I got it and it was good to go from there! Target was hit at 215 price level!
I always make sure to keep all of my trades simple. I approach the market with every trade being a high probable trade setup and also a business decision. I decided that this pair was at a good price along with momentum and I decided to take the opportunity. Remember that everybody is different in trading. My style might not fit your style but I hope it can add some value to your trading!
Please like and follow my page to get more trade ideas here on TradingView! Cheers! On to the next one!
IDEA- LONG WTILooking at WTI on Monday to see if we get that double rejection of the EMA.
If it prints a few positive candles over the EMA, I would expect the balance of probability to take us to the 50% fib at 70.78 at a minimum.
Long BTCUSD IDEAWe've seen 4 rejections at the EMA34 so I think it's reasonable to expect a return to T1 at the 50% fib 6608, T2 at the upper trend 6701 and 61.8% fib.
Probability play.
Short EURUSDQuite a decent probability of a move down to the 50% fib at 1.13005, based on a double rejection of the EMA34.
Decent r/r. No red news planned. Trading with the recent trend,
BTCUSD POTENTIAL LONG (short term opportunity) 1H BTCUSD POTENTIAL LONG
1D Chart:
* price is sitting at a recent significant structure level
*buyer seems to be showing slight interest already at this level
4H Chart:
*Price shows large green(buyer) candle to the upside at this level of structure
*Price ended with a higher high higher close on 4H candle WITH momentum
1H Chart:
*Price had LARGE buyer push to the upside
*Price broke a recent level of structure to the upside
*Buyers are showing strong interest in Bitcoin at the price 6100
Entry:
* Look to enter IF we see a weak pullback from the sellers. We want a weak pullback because in trading it comes down to probability and if the sellers came in strong it wouldn't be a clear probable setup on the buy side.
*Wait for buyer to show interest again at price around the structure point 6250-6200 also the 50-61.8% fib if you trade with Fibonacci levels.
Targets: 6580, 6700, 6900
Stop: 6000 price point
REMEMBER this is a short term outlook. This does NOT mean that Bitcoin will for sure rise. This analysis is based on momentum, structure, and probability of the pullback(which hasn't happened yet). Make sure with every trade to stay disciplined with what you like trading and with proper risk management.
Never risk more than 2% of capital. Make sure to always have a good risk/reward.
Cheers!
Fast Money: "I" is probably a shortlooking very triangular. should be springing out... by guess is a spring down. Comment if you disagree.
2018-08-03 XRP - Double Top ProbabilityIf a candle closes below the purple neckline, a Double Top Pattern may play. Let's see.
#BTC 1H GEOMETRY UPDATEBitcoin is still in short-term downtrend, slight correction back to downtrendline, to retest 100ema and pitchfork angle channel resistance. TBC
AUDUSD short from double supply areaShorting AUDUSD from the yellow area as that is a supply area on the short (30min) timeframe, as well as the long (12hr, gray area).
These setups usually produce good movements so I am hoping to get a 1:1 RR, as indicated on the chart.
Remember to trade with the probabilities. No single trade determines our performance, we will all have a loser once in a while.
Take care,
TheSupportResistanceTrader
USOIL 2618 Buy PatternUSOIL has achieved a 61.80% retracement of its impulse bull leg on 30M and demand is possibly coming in at these levels. This is a lower probability higher reward for risk set up and needs to be approached with proper risk management. Targets of 3R are around the measured move area.
Trading Psychology 5 Edge ExecutionEdge Execution
Trading is a numbers game, and markets are based on the mathematics of the traders equation. However, understanding this alone will not guarantee profits. The ability to apply and conform to the math of the current market context is what leads to consistent profits. Beginners often have a misconecption that they need to know what is going to happen over the period of the next X number of bars in order to make a profit. They believe they must enter at the exact right time and price in order to win on a trade. This could not be further from the truth, and anyone consistenly making money from the markets knows the reality. The reality is a trader does not need to know what is going to happen next in order to make a profit. In fact, a professional trader knows that any given trade is irrelevant to the bigger picture, and an income is generated over a series of trades; not any single trade. This menatlity is past the duality of winning and losing, which are simply accepted as part of the job. This can be called the "probability mindset."
Profits are generated over a series of trades, not any single trade. Therefore, it is not necessary to make money on every trade, every day, or even every month to be a succesful trader. It takes time to build confidence, believe this is true and fully understand this concept. Perhaps this is why most traders fail, by giving up before coming to this realization. It has been said that professional traders have "Won the game before they started playing." (Jack Swagger). This confidence can only come from the probability mindset, when a trader accepts he may lose on this trade, the day, or even this year. But he accepts his risk, and trusts the math that over time he will generate a profit. Even if he takes a large loss, or several, it does not matter; he knows he will make it back up. The overall point of this is that losses are part of the trading process. If a trade is a loser, it does not matter; move on to the next trade. Dwelling on losses or a drawdown does not bring the money back, but continuing to trade does. In this sense it can be said that a successful trader "trades his way out of a drawdown."
It is helpful to think of losses as the "cost of doing business" just like any other business would incur expenses while conducting its operations. There are very few (if any) businesses that do not require heavy start up costs, or capital to continue the business while generating profits. Ever heard the saying "It takes money to make money?" Trading is no different, although most traders fail to realize this, and focus solely on profits. In trading, our costs are commissions and losses, which are offset by gains, resulting in a net profit.
Employing your Edge
So what does this have to do with exeucting an edge? Well, it is necessary to understand not every trade is a guranteed success, and there is a random distribution between wins and losses, with any edge. Even the best setup or edge will result in a loss 30-40% of the time. It is virtually impossible to know in advance, which trade will win and which will lose. Therefore it is absolutely imperative to take every trade that meets a traders edge, regardless of how the trader feels, thinks, or any other variables unrelated to the edge. With this said, here are the basic steps to exeucting and employing an edge.
1). Identify edge. Pick a setup (second entry, wedge reversal, follow through bar, ect.) It is a good idea to start with one until familiar with reading prices.
2). Ask yourself at the close of every bar "Is my edge present?" If no, wait. If yes, enter the trade.
3). Execute the edge with a series of 10 or 20 trades, document every trade. At the end of the series analyze results and tweak.
Wishing you the best of luck on your trading journey
-Josh Ridenour
Trade with >70% probability: SELL close@ 1,1595Trade with >70% probability: SELL close@ 1,1595
Risk: - 22pips Profit: +20pips
Profit/ Risck Ratio: +90,9%
Theoric Probability: >70% Actual Probability: + 94.4%
Total Gain: +508pips
BTCUSD Bullish CaseThere is a possibility for a triple bottom and potential reversal. Let's see how this plays out.
This is not forecast unlike my other charts, just an idea/possibility that has a realistic chance to come to fruition.
People called 4k when we hit 6k bottom and where I bought, people called for 4.8k at 6.45k where I bought, people called for 5k at 6.1k where I bought (few days ago, as seen from my post in other chart),
likewise I sold at the tops when people called for moon. So, I feel pretty confident and like to keep all possibilities open and I think 13k is realistic and will be met someday and this third time has the highest chance.
If it fails, then we can look at the gold chart how this will look like, which I highly doubt, since big money has not entered yet.
$5400 Buy Opportunity Tomorrow?! [BUBBLE UPDATE]Hey guys. Update on the old bubble coin. I mean bitcoin <3 Its in free fall again. At least for now. I'm expecteing to buy back in early this week around $5400. Ride it back up on even lower volume and sell off at 7300 territory mid summer. I'm still a believer that we need to retest this major trend line on the log-scale before we can make higher highs. Might be a while but thats just how it is sometimes. Hope everyone inst too hurt. We are riding a bear but we'll tame her. Best of luck and Digibybe > EOS <3
With Love,
No_L
Ripple Bell CurveWelcome to 10th grade algebra. We have a basic bell curve standard distribution function here - lets see how it plays out.
Long story short - buy you some XRP before the banks do.
Class is in session.
Stay Cryptic Ya'll.
BK
Trade with >70% probability: SELL SH @ 1,23650, stop-loss 1,2391Trade with >70% probability: SELL SH @ 1,23650, stop-loss 1,2391
Opened Mar29 Apr20 169P 177C double calendar on 3/13/18www.tradingview.com
IV rank a little high on this
max risk is the debit until the front month expiration
debit 2.36
Theta 3.54
Underlying price when opened 173.20
Upper and Lower expected move 167.70 176.90
break evens 167 and 180 gives a little more room above
With the break even points being clearly outside of the expected move (per implied volatilty which is often overstated anyway) this trade has a high probability of profit. I will close it before expiration no matter what. www.tradingview.com
Trade with >70% probability: BUY close@ 1,2270Trade with >70% probability: BUY close@ 1,2270
Risk: - 44 pips Profit: +46 pips
Profit/ Risck Ratio: +104,5%
Theoric Probability: >70% Actual Probability: + 93,3%
Total Gain: +451pips
Trade with >70% probability: SELL close@ 1,2320Risk: - 41 pips Profit: +7 pips
Profit/ Risck Ratio: +17 %
Theoric Probability: >70% Actual Probability: + 92,8 %
Total Gain: +405 pips
Very High Probability Trade (VHPT)A very good trading setup is beeing established here - The perfekt timing to engage in a long position.
From a statistical point of view, we can anytime soon expect high volume and hence easily upwards 300% in price increasement. There exits large upside potentials for this very particular coin
Good weekend traders!
trade with >70% probability. short@ 1.2305 ; stop-loss @ 1.2357trade with >70% probability.
short@ 1.2305 ;
stop-loss @ 1.2357
