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GBPJPY - Medium Term Short BiasFX_IDC:GBPJPY Moves gracefully at times of imbalance. When you spot the imbalance, take action without hesitation or you will catch the cobra in the mouth. The anatomy of the geometric pattern displayed is built with the ratios of fibonacci. By applying the fibs one can find high probability entries and exits. PRICE ACTION The rejection off the .618 and .500 leaving a trail of Lower Highs gave me the opportunity to enter this high probability set up! "DON'T TRY TO MASTER MARKET INTELLIGENCE INSTEAD AIM TO MASTER EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE" Rodrigo Antonio
Short
by Fiiyat
1
LONG EURNZD: STRAT TRADE - 99.49% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALLong EURNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1SD. 3. Fundamentally I also like being long EUR given the ECBs new more neutral stance where monpol easing looks to be coming to an end. Trading Strategy: 1. Buy EURNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower. TP is the next daily close higher.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
6
LONG GBPNZD - STRAT TRADE: 99.01% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALLong GBPNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) GBPNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.99%, hence there is a implied 99% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1.5SD - with 1m heavily over sold at -2SD. 3. Fundamentally Sterling looks a little over-offered, with the reason for the aggressive move lower uncertain at best imo - whilst today we saw the kiwi/ GDT Price index trade much softer than recent months which is a positive to be short kiwi tactically. Trading Strategy: 1. Buy GBPNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower. TP is the next daily close higher. Any questions please ask!
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
LONG EURNZD: STRAT TRADE - 99.49% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL *Long EURNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1SD. 3. Fundamentally I also like being long EUR given the ECBs new more neutral stance where monpol easing looks to be coming to an end. 4. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1.52 level, though not quite yearly lows (as in GBPNZD) but still a firm level which is more likely than not to attract some bids. Trading Strategy: 1. Buy EURNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower. TP is the next daily close higher.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
SELL GBPAUD: STRAT TRADE - 7 DAYS UP P=99.746% 8TH DAY LOWERb]GBPAUD: 1. Sterlingaussie has been aggressively bid higher for the last 7-days on the back of sterling data outperforming last week, broad aussie weakness and a general recovery from lows. 2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 8th day or more of buying is 0.254% which means there is an implied 98.78% chance that we move higher today - I like these odds so will add a short here. - If we were to see another day of buying, a 8th day, then the probability of a 9th day is even better on the sell-side odds of 99.918% so i will add to shorts if this is the case - the max number of buying days in GBPAUD has been 10d once and 9d 3 times, 8d 7 times. 3. Plus aussie 30 bill rates firmed up on monday implying only a 5% chance of a september cut down from 8% of the past week, and sterling OIS rates came off from Fridays rally after the market decided to fade last weeks data. - Also we have found some technical price resistance at the 1.72 handle so being short here makes sense. Trading strategy - GBPAUD Sell @1.740: 1. Short GBPAUD pretty much at market TP should be 100-200pips lower. 2. Short small and add if we move higher again on thursday - friday imo is the most likely day for a sterling sell-off as shorts are squared up on profit taking. 3. I also like being short gbpnzd and gbpusd from 1.81 and 1.325 - both have 100-200 easy pips - especially on a UK GDP miss on friday.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
6
SELL GBPAUD: STRAT TRADE - 5 Days up P=98.78% 6TH DAY LOWERGBPAUD: 1. SterlingKiwi has been aggressively bid higher for the last 5-days on the back of sterling data outperforming last week, broad aussie weakness and a general recovery from lows. 2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 6th day or more of buying is 1.22% which means there is an implied 98.78% chance that we move higher today - I like these odds so will add a short here. - If we were to see another day of buying, a 6th day, then the probability of a 7th day is even better on the sell-side odds of 99.45% so i will add to shorts if this is the case - the max number of buying days in GBPAUD has been 10 once and 9 3 times. 3. Plus aussie 30 bill rates firmed up on monday implying only a 5% chance of a september cut down from 8% of the past week, and sterling OIS rates came off from fridays rally after the market decided to fade last weeks data. - Also we have found some technical price resistance at the 1.72 handle so being short here makes sense. Trading strategy - GBPAUD Sell @1.721: 1. Short GBPAUD pretty much at market TP should be 100pips lower at the 1.711 level. 2. Also check my previous post of short gbpnzd into rallies at 1.81 and GBPUSD into 1.315-32
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
4
AUDNZD - STAT TRADE: BUY AFTER A 5TH DAY OF SELLING; P=98.7%AUDNZD: 1. Aussie kiwi has been aggressively sold lower for the last 8/9 days, with the bullday being only 4pips higher (pretty much 9 straight days of selling) and most recently the last 4 days have been pure consecutive closes lower. 2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 5th day or more of selling is 3% which means there is an implied 32/33/ 97% chance that we move higher on the next day, these odds arent too great so I suggust NOT buying on open, instead lets wait and see if we can get another close lower on the daily that takes us into the strong support zone at 1.041/3 - then this will mean buying the probability that a 6th or more day of selling occurs which is 1.3% or an implied chance of 98.7% or 99/100 that the price will go up on the 6th day Trading strategy - AUDNZD wait for monday to close lower at 1.041/3 and buy tuesdays open: 1. I advise buying aussie here after the 5th day lower as the 6th day has a 98.7% chance of moving higher, after a 5th day of selling, the odds are good and I will take part in this.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
Quick HIgh Probability TradeThis is a nice setup that caught my eye. The black lines are my entry area, the red line is my stop, and the green line is my intended target. The two negatives about this setup is that normally I would only take setups that offer me 3:1 risk to reward, but if I feel the setup is high probability, I will from time to time take less than 3:1. This setup offers roughly 2:1. I also don't like the fact that price is basing as it approaches my entry. I prefer a clean arrival. The cleaner the arrival, the less resistance price has to trade through leaving the entry. If price bases too much, I will cancel the setup. The huge plus that this setup has going for it is the fact that it is located within daily demand(support).
Long
by MrBollinger
GBPAUD Short, Target at least 500 pips!Looking at a 1 hour chart, there are great things going our way. We see that the ADX shows very low power, and that the pair will make a big move soon. Since the ADX shows power being built up, we need to look for which way the move will be. The MACD shows downward momentum, and there is also divergence in the MACD. Take a look at the RSI. There is also divergence in the RSI. The pair is reaching a pretty high point. 2 things might happen. 1. The pair will go up, spike, and then drop hard. 2. The pair will have a decent drop, work its way back up, the EMA's will cross down, and the pair will tank. Either way, downtrend if forming. If you want to be risky, but safe, don't place a stop loss within 300 pips above where it is currently at. We could see this pair run up a little bit more, but probability shows that it should go down. Also, 4 hour charts show divergence.
Short
by Jacksonian
3
To what extent is reasonable to follow the price [Observation]With the indicator "Percent Candles Not Revisited Past Week" (bottom one). I count the number of candles that have NOT BEEN revisited at all during the past week. For example that we have reached a top of 3040 and the market has not revisited that price in a week. Well, it seems that price gets revisited pretty frequently. In this past week, only 5% of the candles were not visited again. (1 in 20) and if we go back for months, the biggest rate of non revisited prices is of 7% What do i get from this? Well i make many times the mistake of pursuing the market fomoing and thinking that i will be missing an opportunity, and that could indeed happen but it is not very likely. In fact it is pretty uncommon. So maybe i should just leave some limit orders even in case that i am on a bad position (i can also leave a stop loss for added security) and wait for that limit order to be filled. When i should do that? Maybe when the percent benefit i normally earn on a market is lower than what i would lose jsut waiting for that week multiplied by the probability. Anyway, just some thoughts.
B
by hecate
1
FX CHART OF THE DAY: MEAN REVERTION UPWARDS PROBABLE USDJPYUSDJPY reentered 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-h) mean after a sharp drop earlier this week In my previous chart I also mentioned that USDJPY held long term levels (see related) Price is now likely to tag the weekly mean, as it moves into usual lateral range USDJPY is also supported by BOJ, continuing its extensive monetary stimulus Traders can take long positions close to the lower 1st standard deviation (118.70) targeting the mean (121.00) - with stop below recent lows (118.20)
Long
by Killy_Mel
1