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Probability

MACRO VIEW: MORE EURUSD UPSIDE IS PROBABLEEURUSD has broken above 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (66 days) amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 standard deviations from quarterly mean) Upside probability is apparent, and the closes target is 1 year mean (264 days) at 1.1685. Move is confirmed when price breaks above relevant highs (1.1485) Stop level is quarterly mean (at 1.1085) However one should watch out for oil trend. If WTI oil keeps falling, EUR is likely to follow (as happened back in 2014 autumn)
Long
by Killy_Mel
FX CHART OF THE DAY: MEAN REVERTION DOWN RISK ON GBPUSDGBPUSD is trading close to the 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-h) mean, but it has no slope. Volatility is not expanding (measured by 3.2 standard deviations from weekly mean) and is also flat. Thus there is not enough slope/expansion to show probability of trend - the Cable is likely to revert to the mean. Traders can pick shorts at or close to the upper 1st standard deviation (at 1.5610) with stop above recent highs (1.5665) and target at the weekly mean (1.5550) Traders should also mind US calendar news coming out 12-30 GMT
Short
by Killy_Mel
FX CHART OF THE DAY: AUDUSD UPWARD MOVE PROBABILITYAUDUSD is trading at the relevant highs above (but close to) upper 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-hour mean) -- which is a border of potential uptrend. However volatility is still compressing (measured by 3.2 standard deviations from weekly mean), thus risk of mean revertion downward is still there. Traders can pick longs close to the relevant highs (0.7420), but stop should be placed near - below relevant highs at 0.7395 (price can fall further to the mean if lows taken out amid compressing volatility)
Long
by Killy_Mel
FX CHART OF THE DAY: GBPUSD BREAKDOWN RISKGBPUSD broken below 1st standard deviation of weekly (120-h) mean amid expanding volatility, signaling probability of further downmove. Traders can pick shorts below or close to the 1st st deviation (at 1.5580) with stops at the weekly mean (1.5605) The trade will be confirmed if price falls below relevant lows at 1.5550. Traders should also be aware of calendar news coming out at 8-30 and 14-00 GMT, which can trigger mild volatility on the pair
Short
by Killy_Mel
FX CHART OF THE DAY: USDCHF MEAN REVERTION DOWNWARDS IN PROGRESSUSDCHF has recently broke down inside the 1st st deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean, after a significant leg of upmove. There is high chance of price tagging the mean now, as it needs to trade laterally now after the uptrend completion. Traders can still catch up with it by shorting (preferably closer to the 1st st deviation @ 0.9680) in view of price falling to its weekly (120-hour) mean @ 0.9635 before continuing anywhere else. However traders willing to jump into the move should also put a stop above the relevant highs (@ 0.9720), despite the fact that the stop level is far away upwards from the price.
Short
by Killy_Mel
FX CHART OF THE DAY: USDJPY UPTREND PROBABILITYUSDJPY has broken out from the 1st st deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 st deviations from the mean). Uptrend probability arises if the price holds tests at pullbacks. Purely on technical basis, if price pulls back to the 1st standard deviation (at 124), traders can look for long positions with stop at the weekly mean (at 123.65). One should also consider US news events coming out 12:30 GMT and Japan news coming out 23:30 GMT, which can trigger unexpected price volatility (vertical lines on the chart).
Long
by Killy_Mel
MACRO VIEW: BTCUSD IS ON THE MOVE UPWARDS AGAINBitcoin has entered into an uptrend more than a month ago (June 16th 2015) and the trend held multiple tests since then, pulling back to the 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66-day) moving average. Trades willing to participate in current rally should look for to pick up long positions at pullbacks to the 1st standard deviation, with stops at the quarterly mean itself. ... Since Bitcoin is not truly influenced by fundamental factors, it is a purely technical trade - and the trend will be intact as long as price will drive the perception of traders.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Killy_Mel
FX CHART OF THE DAY: GBPUSD BREAKOUT PROBABILITYGBPUSD Price is trading at the 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean from below amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 st deviations from the mean). Purely on technical basis, if price is to break out from the 1st standard deviation (at 1.5615), traders can look for long positions with stop at the weekly mean (at 1.5560) Traders should also consider US FED news events coming out 18:00 GMT, which can trigger unexpected price volatility on the cable.
Long
by Killy_Mel
Riding the bullish momentum of the USDCAD - daytrade/intradayThroughout this entire year, USDCAD has been rallying which can confirmed on the larger timeframes such as monthly, weekly and daily. I'm basing this trade based off of that momentum and on a simple trend-contination setup. As you can see, price has been consolidating this past week and along with all the momentum n volume today coming because of greece, Im expecting this to go higher with a target of around 1.2800 - around 80 pip profit
Long
by ppp7
Continued Review of the possibilities in Home DepotSeeing the way the MACD and MFI is acting, I would say there is significant risk to the downside. However if you are already long from the recent low, then I would probably look for a continuation of the more obvious trend Could we see a retest of the recent large red candles midpoint? Possibly. And then either re-enter the bearish channel or chug through the volume zone overhead. There is also a candlestick pattern below. I'm not in a trade atm, but I wan't to see how this turns out... - If you want to get short, perhaps look for a better Risk/Reward ratio with a new bearish candlestick formation - If you want to be long, you should have been in on the bullish candlestick pattern or on the Stochastics signal for a better Risk/Reward ratio - *If* you are willing to risk it and commissions are not too high, you may be able to get a dollar in either direction with a very tight stoploss under/over the last printed candles wick or, should you like it better, over/under the low/high of the red candle we had before the last big red one.
NYSE:HD
by ThomasHagg