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Probability

How To Trade Probability Ranges The Critical Rule of 1/3Using the Rule of Thirds to Master Probabilities in trading and investing ranges -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stocks typically remaining in consolidation ranges 70% of the time while trending the remainder. Using the rule of thirds, we can use statistics, prior price action and the probabilities of success to determine when to enter trades where the odds are stacked in our favor. 1) We start by finding a stock that is in a consolidation range, and identify the nearest important support and important resistance levels based on your targeted trading timeframe. 2 ) We take the range between the support and resistance levels and divide it into thirds, so we have three zones within the consolidation range. 3) When going long, you want to BUY the stock when it is within the bottom third or the zone from support to the 1st third level. Once you buy, your objectives are to hold during the middle third of the range, and sell during the top third. When you buy in the first third, this gives you a 66 percent chance of success. If you buy in the second third of the range, you only have a 50/50 chance of success. Going long in the top third of the range, gives you only a 33% chance of success because you are already close to the resistance level. When going short, the sequence and odds are reversed. You sell during the top third of the range, hold during the middle third and exit in the bottom third. This again gives you a 66% chance of success when you enter in the top third, 50/50 chance if you enter in the middle third, and a 33% chance of success if you enter in the bottom third as you are already close to the support zone. ****Using this simple trick, you can quickly evaluate trades based on probabilities and selectively enter trades where the odds of success are the highest and avoid likely losing trades. The rule of thirds also also gives you the confidence to continue to hold trades based on previous important ranges, and provides clear levels where the stock is likely to either reverse or start trending. Hope It Helps to your Trading & Investing Success Marc
FTX:MATICUSDEducation
by PowerIndicators
9
June W.5: Medium-term trend signal!Hi friends, I hope y'all had a fantastic weekend and are ready to finish this month strong ;) Today, we have 2 possible sell trades on this baby. Last week I shared a trade idea on this instrument and we missed the trade, however, the price didn't reach our take profit point which that gave us another opportunity to catch the bearish trend. This trend is derived from the monthly that is in the huge bullish half a bats level 2 formation that will either bearish bounce off or break the 8 m.a that hasn't been retested for 4-5 months to confirm the trend-continuation. So we looking forward to taking a counter-trend trade, but there are 2 possible scenarios that will determine in getting the trades or not. Bulls: -If the price forms a bullish reversal pattern that leads it to bullish break and retest the Daily H&S Neckline 2 together with the 50 and bullish short-term m.a's, that will dis-confirm both trades. Bears: -If the price bullish bounces of the Weekly Neckline 3/Daily H&S Neckline 2, 50 and 8 m.a's with a bearish reversal candle or pattern close, that will either trigger what I call an "H&S A-E.3 SELL signal or H&S B-E.1 SELL signal". That's the first trade signal. For the second trade signal, after the price has trigger the first trade and proceeds to drop and break and retest the 1st Daily Ke Lvl, that will trigger what I call an "H&S B-E.2 SELL signal" that will lead to a 2 level drop to the last take profit point. That drop will form a big double top on the weekly, and it be visible on the monthly as a mini reversal pattern. That's it for today. I hope you found value in this trade idea. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section or in private, I'd love to know your thoughts! Stay Blessed, Doji-2k1.
TVC:USOILShort
by Doji-2k1
June Week 5: Medium-term trend signal!Hi friends, I hope y'all had a fantastic weekend ;) Today, we have possible buy trade signal on this babe. This trade is derived from the monthly time frame that expects a bullish retest on the huge double tops neckline, symmetrical triangle ascending trend line, and 8 m.a. That retest will be triggered by the double tops accumulation phase, that will form a mini double bottom on the monthly that will be visible as a huge pattern on the weekly. The double bottoms 2nd leg formation will be driven by this time frames bullish half a bat pattern. Although we expect a bullish counter-trend, there's a high probability for a bearish long-term trend that will occur soon or later. With that said, let us take a look at how the bulls and bears might behave in triggering our trade and not. Bulls: -If the price bullish rallies to break and retest the Daily Half a Bat Neckline and Mini Weekly Half a Bat Neckline, together with the 50 and bullish crossed short-term m.a's, that will trigger what I call a "Half a Bat A-E.2 BUY signal". That signal will lead to a bullish 3 level trend and 200 m.a that will probably end on the last take profit point. Bears: -If the price bullish bounces off the Daily Half a Bat Neckline/Mini Weekly Half a Bat Neckline and 50 m.a with a bearish reversal candle or reversal pattern that leads the price to bearish break and retest the 8 m.a (dark blue), that will dis-confirm our trade. That's it for today. I hope you found value in this idea. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section or in private, I'd love to know your thoughts! Stay Blessed, Doji-2k1
Long
by Doji-2k1
This Is How Professional Traders Figures Out BTCs Next Move!The title is misleading - I am not a professional trader BUT I know how professional traders act. TL;DR - Bitcoin is at a range low with the break of 30k potentially being a fakeout. Probability still favours bullish extraction of the range especially if the weekly candle closes as a hammer candle. The three patterns (marked 1 / 2 / 3) are potentially patterns that may emerge which will give more probability towards certain paths for future price action. Probability is the priority of the professional trader. They will NEVER care about catching the "top" or the "bottom" of a move or getting a x100000 home run if it was not done with an understanding of the probability (and risk) behind your trade. Translating this to laymen terms - if you are buying when bitcoin is in the process of selling off and UST is blowing everything up without more thought than "It can't sell off much more!" you are not trading you are gambling and you WILL lose more money than you earn over the course of your life. That is not an opinion - it is a statistical fact. Professional traders are professional because over the course of their lifetime/thousands of trades, they are able to consistently win. Just like a casino, it doesn't matter how much they win in each trade but if they are consistent in returning profits and can make a regular income from trading. That is it. There is no difference between you and them other than their understanding of when to take a trade because the probability is on their side and when to not get involved. (and ofcourse thier understanding of risk but I will touch on that in a post about risk in the future). But how do they figure out probability? A mix of experience, technical analysis and macro-economic sense all combined under the roof of emotional control. So lets work through these factors in relation to Bitcoin above. 1: We are in a range (when price oscillates between two distinct areas - with the range highs being set in January 2021 & Oct/Nov 2021 (60k), and range lows set in June/July 2021 & now (30k)) that has followed a bullish range (when price oscillates upwards, with pronounced higher lows and higher highs). With experience, you learn that more often than not trends continue - I am sure you have heard the term "the trend is your friend". Because of this statistical fact, if you trade on the side of a trend you have a higher probability of winning than losing. As we trended bullish prior to this range forming, regardless of what shape this range takes we already know that there is a statistical probability in favour of the range being broken to the upside. This flavours our buying within the range, favouring buying opportunities rather than shorting. 2: Looking at the pattern of the range we can see an important element that weights bullish probability - a slight break of the all-time high in Oct/Nov. This adds more weight to the probability of bullish extraction because it simply means there were more buyers than sells EVEN AFTER 6 months of Bitcoin "crashing". Ontop of this, sellers took longer to gain control of price than back in January 2021. As time has passed, bullishness has remained or even grown. This tells us value is increasing over time. 3: While the most probable outcome following the break of the all-time-high was a test of a minor pullback support (47k/41k/37k) followed by a reactivation of bullish price action and a break up of the range, we are now back at the range low. This is where emotion comes in. How scary was that sell off?! The whole crypto space died! Yet we are set to close the weekly candle above 30k and that wick below doesn't actually seem too bad when looking at it from such a large timeframe (weekly - ignore the 15min/1h/4h/1D - those timeframes are much more chaotic/random and are superseded by the superiority of weekly and monthly trends (macro-trends)). Given all of the above the professional trader is able to understand the wider picture and look beyond the emotions and news of the last few days. There is a statistical probability of us breaking the range to the upside AND we are sat in a buy area (as we are at the range low). Despite the massive sell off, we are failing to make significant candle closes below range supports and so now the professional trader (having established the overall theme/context they are trading in (bullish tainTed range with bullish elements and a potential range fakeout / stoploss hunt) will zoom in and look at candlestick patterns to determine probability further: Check out the "Area of Interest". We are about to close the weekly candle in a shape that is referred to as "A Hammer Candle". Understanding what happened during the course of this candle lets us understand how probable future price action is as a point of entry rather than in the wider bullish range context. A Hammer candle is formed when the candle opens high, sellers push price lower, buyers step in and push price back up, and then the candle closes near its opening price. When this candlestick appears around a support area, it means that buyers have bought the support, fending off a bearish attack where sellers were too weak to break down the support. While it does not tell us the future, it does give us an understanding of price action and a favourable probability to buy as it is evidence that buyers are active and the support has a strong chance of not breaking. A hammer candle is nothing without a confirmation candle. This is needed to either undermine the bullish argument or confirm it as we can not trade simply on the hammer candle (it alone is not enough information to accurately gauge probability). I have listed 3 potential candles that might emerge next week and listed them in terms of what probability they will apply to the bullish/neutral/bearish arguments (NOTE there can be an infinite number of candles following this weeks close - while many people think trading strategies are extremely complex, they can be just as simple as identifying a favourable context and waiting for one of these very simple patterns to emerge). 1: Bullish - This artistically drawn picture of a candle following our hammer is called 'A bullish engulfing candle'. Here, price opening low and closing above the head of the hammer candlestick gives more weight to further bullish price action. It shows that sellers were unable to take over price again, and bulls were able to push price higher than that of the "sell-off" candle and retain price up there. Combined with a hammer AND the bullish nature of this range we would be able to understand that there is a pretty significant probability of ATLEAST the middle of the range if not range highs being tested. 2: Neutral - Doji / Spinning Top. This candlestick shows us that at some point during the candlestick, buyers tried to push price higher and sellers beat them back, but also sellers tried to push price lower and buyers bought them out. Buyers and sellers are evenly matched and so price is hesitating. While this is neutral, price should not linger too long at supports (ideally you want to see lots of buyers coming in and pushing price away quickly) and so a neutral candle here would have a slightly bearish taint to it. If this appears, it is likely that price will continue to hesitate around the 30k mark, with a small but favourable probability of further selling. Try and spot the Doji candlesticks in the consolidation back in May/June 2021. NOTE: I have specifically drawn this candle with a wick that goes ABOVE the high of the hammer candlestick. A common trading strategy for a hammer is to wait for the high to be broken by the next candle, then enter long as a breakout trade (in the hopes that a bullish engulfing will emerge). This is correct BUT an emotional mature trader often waits (especially when macro-economic risk is so high as it is right now), for the candle to close as a failed break out above the hammer high can often occur before sellers come down and push price down nearer the close of the candle. When that happenes, we wick above the high and then close in something like this doji, trapping all those breakout traders in their long positions and adding more weight to any selling pressure if the support were to then be broken and they needed to close thier long. 3: Bearish - Reverse hammer. This says it on the tin - it is the opposite of a hammer candlestick. Buyers tried to push price higher but sellers took over, closing the candle at the lows. This would tell us that there is still lots of sellers keep to get out and undermine the bullishness that the hammer candlestick presents. Notice how one appeared back in May/June 2021 (the week of the 24th of May)? This shows us that after the big drop, buyers tried to catch the bounce but sellers were still present. This indicates sustained selling pressure is more likely to continue, and so there is a statistical probability of further attempts at the lows made over the next few weeks. Lastly - let's pull EVERYTHING together. 1: We are in a range with a bullish trend beforehand, tainting the range to the bull side. 2: We have a bullish element within the range of a slightly higher high. This means that any attempt at the range low has a statistical probability of being bought, and the range has a statistical probability of the bullish trend seen prior to the range re-emerging. This then means any time we are at the range low, it should be seen as a buying opportunity. 1: Wait for appropriate support (30k is extremely strong major support and prior range low). 2: Wait for an appropriate candlestick pattern (hammer in this case) 3: Wait for confirmation to favour bullish price action. That's it. It's that simple - This is an opportunity for inventory add or a swing trade with a stop below the wick of the hammer candle, and take profit targets at 37k, 47k & between 51-56k. Trading strategies do not need to be complex (in fact the simpler the better). When I first learnt this I looked down on the lack of complexity - I thought trading was extremely hard and you needed as much information and indicators and colours as possible to eliminate all doubt! But truth is: That market will go where it wants to. You can not know where that is. You are not an all-knowing being and sadly - all your information is information everyone else knows. Your ego and sense of needing to control are exactly the reason why most people can not trade. The market is the collective knowledge of all participants. Understanding it is akin to understanding the complexity of the human condition (as ultimately participants' wants, fears, greed, knowledge is baked into where they think price should be bought or sold.) Letting go allows you to see the simplicity in chaos, objectively plan for the most probable course of action, then sit back and watch the fireworks! P.
Long
by MarcusAurelius161
13
Semi-Critical Decision Here: Potential for 32580This is an update for my markov analysis of BTCUSD (2 updates preceeded this which are linked as related ideas and describe the concept and methodology). I will keep this one simple and you can refer to the previous ideas for details. BTC has been following this pretty nicely and any anomalous leaps over 1 transition state in a truncated period have been punished with equal and opposite reactions back to the regular path progression of transitioning 1-state per time period. The next 3 levels I am seeing are ranked with highest probability (very near term, this week - from there will update accordingly but 1 of the levels could create a change of character or at least initiate the start of one: Most likely next stop: 30795 (if this occurs in will have to make a more critical decision to consolidate and breakout locally or to reject and retest the 2800s for possible breakdown Second most likely next stop on the condition 30795 is broken is 32758 - this would open the door for the initiation of the change of character because it would be synonymous to jumping across a creek for those familiar with wyckoff. I would expect an explosive break right through 30795 if this path plays out. Third most likely is down from here to 28905 , at which point it would test support again and if there is enough pressure could break down and threaten the dreaded 23k (not really dreaded because that would merely set up for the next motive wave, however, this isn't an EWT analysis - this is a local analysis to examine how BTC is navigating this consolidation range in a stochastically-sophisticated way. Probability does not favor a sharp drop from here, rather, slightly bullish price action which could get the ball rolling for a bullish week in the market due to BTC/ES correlation that has become pretty apparent recently: BTC wears the pants in this relationship. Best, Judge Judy
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by JerryManders
How to Calculate Probability in Price So many have asked for tutorials on some quant strategies. So this is my first tutorial for some basic quant trading strategies. This is not really a strategy in and of itself, this is to help you determine realistic price points as part of your overall strategy. You will need Excel to do this. If you like this kind of tutorial/find it helpful, let me know and I can continue posting similar stuff on how to apply some more basic quant strategies into your trading. Take care and trade safe!
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Steversteves
7
NZDJPY Seasonality Forecast, February 2022Left Chart: This chart finds the historical odds of what two pivot points we have closed between by the end of every February. The distribution of historical closes between any two pivots has a fairly uniform distribution, with 62% of closes between S1 and R1. Odds of closing above R1 is 16% and below S1 is 22%, combined the odds of closing past those pivots is 38% historically. Middle Chart: This chart finds the historical odds that tops have come in between any two pivot points in the month of February. Historically, 67% of highs for the month were above the H1 pivot. Using the Probability Weighted Pivot, the orange dotted line, we get an average high historically around R1. Which translates to 78.436 for this month's pivots. Right Chart: Instead of looking at highs, this chart looks at where we bottom out between any two pivots in the month of February. The low probabilities are also fairly uniform, but the historical probabilities are split 60/40, that is above/below, the S1 pivot. The Probability Weighted Pivot sits above S1 and priced at 74.584, meaning on average the moves to the downside are smaller in the month of February than the moves to the upside for NZDJPY. All together: February is the kind of month where price action can be characterized by initial moves like a high past R1, and a low past S1; and then a reversal back inside of S1 - R1 range to close the month. The main risk is how to trade the month's end. As the distribution of historical closes in February are very uniform. The indicators used are Wayne's Pivots Pro and Pivot Probabilities.
Long
by joebaus
ETHUSD Seasonality Forecast, 52nd WOTYThis is a forecast using two tools I developed, one a trading strategy and the other for seasonal probabilities on a weekly and monthly basis; Wayne's Pivots Pro and Pivot Probabilities . I'll be using these tools to do seasonal analysis on INDEX:ETHUSD , and specifically how it has reacted in prior years in the 52nd week of the year. While seasonality analysis is limited, as in there's only 7 years of data, it is not totally impossible to come away with some useful facts about how INDEX:ETHUSD has behaved during the 52nd week over those 7 years. Nonetheless, the more data in years you have, the more accurate these historical probabilities theoretically become. TD;DR: Historically, ETHUSD has remained range bound between the weekly R1 and S1 pivot in the 52nd week of the year. Breakdown: From Left to Right Closing probabilities (left chart) measure the number of times we have historically closed the period, 52nd week, between any two pivots. We have only closed outside of the weekly R1 to S1 in the 52nd week of the year one time in the last 7 years. This encourages a range bound trade as well, with 85.71% of historical closes between R1 ($4228.23) and S1 ($3826.74). The orange dotted line shows the weighted-sum-mean, using the probabilities as weights against the pivot points to calculate a mean. The weighted mean of closes is at a price of $4086.91, and it is biased above the central pivot as 71.43% of closes are also above the central pivot. (The green and red numbers above R3 and below S3 summarize the total number of probabilities above and below the central pivot.) High probabilities (middle chart) measures the number of times we get a historical high, or top out, between any two pivots. We see 42.86% of historical highs for the 52nd week of the year were above the M4 pivot, at $4310.46 right now; that means it's also true that 57.14% of highs were below M4 ($4310.46) historically. While not quite the odds of a coinflip, 57% above M4 to 43% below M4; because we're working with such a low sample size, we might want to interpret these odds effectively as a 50/50 coinflip. Low probabilities (right chart) measures the number of times we get a historical low, or bottom out, between any two pivots. Most lows occur above S1 this week which is positive for dip buyers. Historically, 71.43% of lows were above S1, and with the weighted mean low priced at $3857. It's reasonable to say it's unlikely based on historical probabilities we go below S1 at $3826.74 this week. Again, however, because of such a low sample size it's never worth putting everything on the line for such a trade. A lower sample size should give you less confidence and more uncertainty about the true seasonal probabilities an asset has. While we can state the current facts with 7 years of data on ETH, there is always more to take into account before pulling the trigger.
INDEX:ETHUSD
by joebaus
BTC POSSIBLE TRAJECTORY & THE ODD OF REACHING 100K BY YEAR ENDProbability of BTC price CLOSING between the assigned range of 100k and 20k by the end of December Additionally presented is a possible trajectory automatically plotted by a decent public script on daily timeframe which aligns to my opinion There is still chance BTC bull can win over 100k threshold (6.78%?), but maybe not by the year end. All the scripts used are complete experimental & opinions are definitely not financial advice Best of Luck
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by henryph24
How To Use Risk:Reward Like A ProWhatsup my friends In this video I will be covering my risk:reward model and how I can use it to generate an edge in the market. In this specific backtesting session, I used 0.5:2 risk:reward with TP at 4RR for every trade. I got pretty good results - but remember this is simulated and it's easier to perform better. However, don't take this type of training lightly - this is the best way to improve as a trader. The next step would be to actually start journaling your trades and analyzing everything at a deeper level. I hope you enjoyed this! Cheers Dil
Education
by justlivingmylife
UAA longUAA long Under Armour, Inc. is engaged in the development, marketing and distribution of branded performance apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. The Company's segments include North America, consisting of the United States and Canada; Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA); Asia-Pacific; Latin America, and Connected Fitness. Its products are sold across the world and worn by athletes at all levels, from youth to professional, on playing fields around the globe, as well as by consumers with active lifestyles. The Company sells its branded apparel, footwear and accessories in North America through its wholesale and direct to consumer channels. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had approximately 151 factory house stores in North America primarily located in outlet centers throughout the United States. In addition, the Company distributes its products in North America through third-party logistics providers with primary locations in Canada, New Jersey and Florida
NYSE:UAALong
by fade_the_vol
ATUS pushing the extremesNYSE:ATUS pushing the extremes of the 99.9% probability cone. Bids filled at $17.55. Probability Cone is based on the Expected Move. While Expected Move only shows the historical value band on every bar, probability panel extend the period in the future and plot a cone or curve shape of the probable range. It plots the range from bar 1 all the way to bar 31. In this model, we assume asset price follows a log-normal distribution and the log return follows a normal distribution. Note: Normal distribution is just an assumption; it's not the real distribution of return. The area of probability range is based on an inverse normal cumulative distribution function. The inverse cumulative distribution gives the range of price for given input probability. People can adjust the range by adjusting the input probability in the settings. The probability of the entered standard deviation will be shown in the middle when the "show probability" setting is on.
NYSE:ATUSLong
by fade_the_vol
SPX - October updatePrevious analysis's October 1 - Sept 21 - pre-warning of the rising wedge Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Bearish Channel upon a diagonal forming? 8Hour time frame. Not looking trade this pattern as yet, due to the fact, the channel upon the higher time frames, looks to create a high probability of rejecting the 4400 mark and creating a further high. However, keep in mind this scenario will form an opportunity for short term traders. See below for the measured update to the 8-hour rising channel. You can look for a test, retest break sell - which is known as a The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart. Weekly Chart The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure. The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. . Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached. The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to. The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed. The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels. See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation. Chinese situation: A quick insight to how the Chinese market works The chinese property is leased for 70 years from the government who will be brought up by Real estate companies who will design and pre-sale units to investors, who will buy off plan using deposits. The cycle of funds will allow the developer to fund the next, complete or buy further leases for the next project, leaving a debt cycle Referring to China A50 USD - the FTSE China 50. Collapse of Evergrande Regulators have warned that its $305 billion of liabilities could spark broader risks to China's financial system if its debts are not stabilised. This will have ripple effects upon the US, Australian market relating to commodity imports from Australia with Copper, Iron has hit these commodities with creating imbalance sells upon the metals. China - will the CCP allow Evergrande to default? "Evergrande's woes also pressured the broader property sector, with Hong Kong-listed shares of small-sized Chinese developer Sinic Holdings (2103.HK) down 87%, wiping $1.5 billion off its market value before trading was suspended" Reuters. Whilst the Chinese real estate market has large multiple ratio where the Chinese seek the real estate to be a wealth inidcator. Despite the prices of price to income ratio as a whole in china the property price is 27.89x the avg income. Expressed as a mortgage % of income is 223% of monthly income. Source: www.numbeo.com What do you think about the current state? Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
🚨💡BTC: 'Hidden' Death Cross 100% Probability of Correction💡🚨Remove the Noise!! This is pure mathematics, statistics and probability. The 'Hidden' Death Cross & 'True' Golden Cross are the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA, which with 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, consistently (100% of cross cycles) result in a significant market contraction or expansion. Note: I am bullish on BTC, but these macro economic cycles must complete and ignoring statistical probability because of over bullish dreams, sentiment or "conviction" is likely the no. 1 fallacy of most traders in all markets. In the following historical analysis, I identify each cross, For contractions, I use the price at the date of the Hidden Death Cross, to the lowest price to determine the price drop percentage. 5 Hidden Death Cross (HDC); 1. 26-Sep-2011: -60% 2. 07-Jul-2014: -73% 3. 28-May-2018: -62% 4. 24-Feb-2020: -61% 5. 30-Aug-2021: -.... - 100% Probability of Market Contraction - Average contraction: 64% Standard Deviation (Confidence); - SD 1 (90%): Max 68% / Min 60% Correction - SD 2 (95%) Max 69% / Min 59% Correction - SD 3 (99%): Max 71% / Min 57% Correction Market expansions are identified from the price at the date of the True Golden Cross, to the highest price to determine the price increase percentage. 4 True Golden Cross (TGC); 1. 16-Jul-2012: +16'890% 2. 20-Jul-2015: +7'192% 3. 29-Apr-2019: +179% 4. 03-Aug-2020: +531% 5. ...... - 100% Probability of Market Expansion Expansion values too variable for significant deviation estimation Conclusion: I am a TA traditionalist, I believe that the price reflects all known / unknown information and that price action reflects human behaviour in reaction to the changing nature of the information to establish the best possible price at that moment in time. Based upon the mathematical analysis of the price action, for example tracking moving averages, we can identify the trends in human behaviour and apply statistical probability to these trends. As can be observed above, the statistical probability of this trend is considerably strong, with a 99% confidence of a drop in the range of 57% to 71% after the Hidden Death Cross that happened the 30th of August 2021. What do you think? yemala
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Yemala
24
Bitcoin 3 Market PhasesIn my experience in the markets, all price action follows 3 main market phases as below: 1) Consolidation: price ranges between two levels and consolidates between that area. 2) Expansion: Price action breaks out of the consolidation with high volatility making rapid impulsive and corrective waves. 3) Trend: The price action finally follows and market has a fixed sentiment where the trend takes place and the main direction of the financial instrument price goes.
Short
by FXwabz