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🚨💡BTC: 'Hidden' Death Cross 100% Probability of Correction💡🚨Remove the Noise!! This is pure mathematics, statistics and probability. The 'Hidden' Death Cross & 'True' Golden Cross are the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA, which with 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, consistently (100% of cross cycles) result in a significant market contraction or expansion. Note: I am bullish on BTC, but these macro economic cycles must complete and ignoring statistical probability because of over bullish dreams, sentiment or "conviction" is likely the no. 1 fallacy of most traders in all markets. In the following historical analysis, I identify each cross, For contractions, I use the price at the date of the Hidden Death Cross, to the lowest price to determine the price drop percentage. 5 Hidden Death Cross (HDC); 1. 26-Sep-2011: -60% 2. 07-Jul-2014: -73% 3. 28-May-2018: -62% 4. 24-Feb-2020: -61% 5. 30-Aug-2021: -.... - 100% Probability of Market Contraction - Average contraction: 64% Standard Deviation (Confidence); - SD 1 (90%): Max 68% / Min 60% Correction - SD 2 (95%) Max 69% / Min 59% Correction - SD 3 (99%): Max 71% / Min 57% Correction Market expansions are identified from the price at the date of the True Golden Cross, to the highest price to determine the price increase percentage. 4 True Golden Cross (TGC); 1. 16-Jul-2012: +16'890% 2. 20-Jul-2015: +7'192% 3. 29-Apr-2019: +179% 4. 03-Aug-2020: +531% 5. ...... - 100% Probability of Market Expansion Expansion values too variable for significant deviation estimation Conclusion: I am a TA traditionalist, I believe that the price reflects all known / unknown information and that price action reflects human behaviour in reaction to the changing nature of the information to establish the best possible price at that moment in time. Based upon the mathematical analysis of the price action, for example tracking moving averages, we can identify the trends in human behaviour and apply statistical probability to these trends. As can be observed above, the statistical probability of this trend is considerably strong, with a 99% confidence of a drop in the range of 57% to 71% after the Hidden Death Cross that happened the 30th of August 2021. What do you think? yemala
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Yemala
24
Bitcoin 3 Market PhasesIn my experience in the markets, all price action follows 3 main market phases as below: 1) Consolidation: price ranges between two levels and consolidates between that area. 2) Expansion: Price action breaks out of the consolidation with high volatility making rapid impulsive and corrective waves. 3) Trend: The price action finally follows and market has a fixed sentiment where the trend takes place and the main direction of the financial instrument price goes.
Short
by FXwabz
BTC/USD probability correction analisyshello everybody after a small break out from the bottom of the channel, I decided to make some changes to my chart. so I drew a new channel which shows us we had a small change in our momentum, and the new fibo extension indicates new support and resistance level. I expect the price goes to the further targets up to the top of channel, surely we will have some fluctuations in the way, if nothing special won't happen during the week this is my idea. DYOR
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZorgOros
BTC/USD 4H hi guys. after the first pump from 29K, the extension fibo got us proper and fine targets till now , we just reach the target and because the distance of the next target from here is a little high I believe we need a proper correction OR a huge amount of money and investing from whales or big institutions, by the way from 29k till here we have about 70 % growth so if the correction scenario happens it would take 38 to 50 percent of it back or less. so I hope you all saved some profit and watch the chart carefully. if the yellow channel (a wedge shape ) will break we have our targets in pink line which any of them could be the reversal potential area. the extension fibo also can help us to find good levels of knots. this idea will attach in the comment section of previous idea
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZorgOros
BTC probabilityas mentioned in my previous ideas the green upward channel is still valid, I see 2 tension point that are targets for bitcoin which I mentioned them in the chart with ( T ). in my opinion, there is 3 scenario : green: due to the market news and situations in the overall financial market, I believe other markets need a retracement and lately cryptocurrency has had enough news to get attention, also the adaptivity of crypto is increasing day by day, so I believe if any dump or retrace will happen for other markets the smart money will fall into crypto and the green arrow will move into green channel even there is the possibility to break it above. orange: there is a possibility for the price to range between blue and red line this would happen if in close future any fud news will make for BTC and makes doubts in the people mind. RED: this would be the worst scenario which would happen a range market between two red lines and altcoin will suffer if this scenario happens. I don't see any bearish movement, there would be a little retracement for accumulating but no dump for the future, for now, 40 is the basement for BTC.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ZorgOros
NFLX Weekly ProbabilitiesThis statistical indicator (Pivot Probabilities) finds the historical likelihood of any week or month closing between two given pivot points. NFLX is particularly interesting. We have been range bound between $555.88 and $477.58 since June - July of 2020. Using a linear regression of the last 3 months ( excluding the current month's data ), if price reached mean this week it would be at the prices $484 - $480 based on time. Using Pivot Probabilities, looking back 19 years ( the entire time series ) the 29th Week of the year has a 26.32% historical probability of closing below $488.57 ( S3 ). I find it unlikely that we will make this move, but being aware of the likelihood that these events could occur is a massive advantage to risk management strategy. If I were to bias my trade bullish or bearish blindly, lets say by flipping a coin, I could look and see that 78.95% of all closes for this week are below the Central Pivot, currently at $538.30. Just because there is close to an 80% likelihood of profitability in a trade, does not mean it will be profitable. You must make contingency plans for that remaining 20% risk. By taking care of your risk, your profit potential will take care of itself. For example, there's a 15.79% historical probability that we close above $580.04 ( R3 ) by the end of this week. You must be prepared for that R3 outcome as well as you prepare for the S3 outcome. Be safe out there and best of luck!
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by joebaus
One for the patient traders CHFJPY long 📈🙌Entry details are shown on the chart. Working the H1 time frame on this strategy. We're only looking for TP3. Trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency. Last trade took six days to land. This strategy is one for those who can sit on their hands 😆 ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren.
Long
by pow_removetheguesswork
Understanding draw down recovery 😬😥Morning traders. Middle of the trading week all ready! I thought I'd take this opportunity to discuss a topic we all fear and we all find ourselves in at some point in our trading journey. That topic being draw down and your account in a loss of starting capital. The table I have drawn on the chart shows the amount of gain required to get an account back to break even depending on how big the draw down is on your capital. Scary stuff when viewed in a simple table format like and hits home just how big of task over turning losses could be. No trading system or strategy has zero losses or draw down and all strategies endure losing runs. To avoid excessive losses there is two crucial elements. Sounds obvious but cut losing trades quickly is the first element, second element is factoring probability into the trading strategy. Probability helps control risk management which in turns keep losses to a minimum, probability is obtained by carrying out back testing on your strategy. You can't plan for probability in your risk management if you have no data for your strategy. The example I am using for this Idea is on AUDCHF H1 timeframe and thanks to our built in strategy tester I can see if I traded this pair in the manner the strategy is set over the last 292 trades at 1% risk I am 22% down on my account. It would not take in the region of a 25% account gain to be back to near break even on my account!!! You don't need a built in strategy tester to gain this information you can also manually back test a strategy in order to avoid losses and to know if you are entering markets with a proven edge. A trading edge means your strategy creates bigger wins than losses. Which in turn means you avoid the situation shown in the table. To avoid hefty draw down don't enter the markets blind with an unproven strategy. Ensure you have back tested strategies with probability factored in to those strategies that way what is shown in the table wont apply to you then 👍 ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
Triangle breakout in BritanniaNSE:BRITANNIA The stock has fallen 10% from it's 52 week. The trend line acts as a strong support and resistance respectively. *Trade Confirmations* :- The monthly central pivot range is narrow indicating a trending month. :- Descending triangles have good success rates. :- Consolidation near the trend line. *Trade Setup* :- T1 - 3550 :- T2 - 3800 :- SL - 3350 Thank you for viewing my ideas and analysis. Read it completely for complete understanding. Follow me so that you'll get notified whenever I post some content. Let me know through the comment section if you have any doubts or feedbacks. All the best! Happy trading/investing :)
NSE:BRITANNIALong
by Omsai1238
BTC in 4H. two panoramas. English The theory says that its heading for a bearish triangle. we are in a trend continuity pattern. but its a probability, not a certainty. I think there is a 50/50. BTC can break up that resistance at 40,600 or try to look for levels close to 30,000 Español. La teoría dice que se dirige a un triangulo bajista. estamos en un patrón de continuidad de tendencia. pero es una probabilidad, no una certeza. creo que hay un 50/50. puede llegar a romper a la alza esa resistencia en 40600 o intentar buscar unos niveles cercanos a los 30.000
by xfrai3
NZDUSD ShortNZDUSD has surged to the upside due to RBNZ being more hawkish, however volume has subsided and I expect a short back to .72000 1. The previous times the kiwi has risen due to RBNZ a few days later it dropped back below where it rose from. (looking for a repeat) 2. Sell volume has been increasing 3. Kiwi is still range bound and with USD gaining strength - kiwi at top of range, this increases the probability of a short trade This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only
Short
by csohrab
How to use Chobotaru IndicatorOur indicator can now be used by everyone. There are a lot of indicators trying to predict what will be the range of the stock in the future. Some of the indicators, that are well known, are using STD of volatility like Bolinger Bands or using an advanced simulation like Monte-Carlo, and others that are using different methods. Our approach to this subject is different. There is an official volatility predictor called Implied Volatility. (I explained it in a different post) This number can be seen in the options chain in your broker platform. You don’t need to trade options to use this indicator. This indicator shows you a probability cloud, giving you the probability of the stock moving to a certain price. This can help in several ways like determine if your target price is possible, where to put stop-loss, you can also use other technical analyses, like support and resistance to choose which area is best for your trade. The sky is the limit. We tested it on 30(+/-10) days of small market cap and higher. In our testing, the price finished inside the range more than 80% of the time (the result are higher but I’m trying to stay conservative). The user can choose a different option’s time period than 30 days, but the longer the period the higher the chance for a rare event that is not currently priced in. The indicator is based on the partial differential equations from the mathematical model of options, the Black-Scholes model. In simple words, the prices of options give you some indication of how the market thinks the stock should perform. If you take the implied volatility and insert it into the indicator, you can see the probability range, transforming this data into a visual representation. What inputs do you need to enter? Instrument price – The current price of the stock or futures contract. In this example, the close price of the SPY on March 30, 2021, is 394.73 The interest rate – Searching in google: “U.S. Department of the treasury daily yield curve rates”, Use the 3-month value (of the day of the entry or day before). On 03/30/2021 the 3-month value was 0.02% Days to expire (minus trading holidays) – At the end of 03/30/2021, I searched for the option that is the closest to 30 days on the SPY. The option that ending on April 30, has 31 days, in this period we have a holiday “Good Friday”, so I subtract the original number of days from the holiday, 31-1 = 30 Implied Volatility – This number in your trading platform will usually be shown in a percentage, you need to enter a positive decimal number. In this example, the implied volatility of the option was 15.2%, the input is 0.152 The date – The last thing is the date of the entry, in this case, Day – 30, Month – 3, Year – 2021. This indicator can be used on daily bars and everything smaller than that. We recommend using it on daily bars. Try it for yourself on your charts and share your result, if you have any questions, tell us in the comments.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by ZoharCho
4
$60,000 Explosion Big Short movie setupIn the movie, the big short Charlie Geller and Jamie Shipley took trades with options out of the money with low probability. This is an example of such trade, 100 options contract worth $6000 if SOS will run up again, this trade could make $60,000. If the price will move to $21, this trade could make $120,000 This also shows that options are leveraged, if you would like to buy the shares you would need to pay $39,000 for 10,000 shares. In this trade, the max loss is $6000, when buying the stocks the max loss is $39,000 How will it end? What do you say?
NYSE:SOSLong
by ZoharCho
14
SPX reaches target extension 1Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original below: This will provide a good explanation with multiple charts and views which give enough evidence to create the possibility of the targets reaching the Fibonacci over extended pattern. Analysis for 2021 outlook. Multi-time frame analysis overview: Weekly time frame of imbalance analysis: Here is the weekly imbalances taking effect of the over extended Fibonacci sequence. Here is the monthly timeframe: While the 4K is a newly created all time high, the imbalance will now become a great area to exchange price action between the buyers and sellers. Price has now created the interesting inefficient pricing leaving a long imbalance short effect, this will require patience while the sequence is completed for the Selling imbalance to take place. Cross asset analysis: Where are we with the Inflation ETF - RINF VS SPX? An update below shows the positive correlation still maintaining structure. Note- The Fibonacci sequence here shows the RINF - but the completion sequence aligns with 4,200+ zone where price will look to have created a new imbalance zone - whilst this is being created - assess the probabilities for the next part of the sequence. EEM vs SPX What does the emerging markets show us? Well the imbalances are within the same as the US market, but the economic recovery in terms of imbalance price driving in the EEM - shows that whilst fundamentally there is more volatility . The activeness of these markets provides a telling Fibonacci extension target is not to dissimilar along with the SPX . Beware of XAU , XAG - currently lagging behind upon a large correctional imbalance move as inflation remains low, plus the imbalance zone not ready yet for action to be taken. Vix vs SPX Do not forget about the VIX, the volatility index is currently at low levels within a monthly imbalance and creating a good sense of fractal movements within the lower time frames for example, the daily and 16 hour timeframes. Price is showing a good probability of supressed capitulation waters, in relation to the Fibonacci sequence - SPX will nearly or complete the move to $4360 est. and then the VIX will grow an increasing sign of bullish probability based on high inefficiency. XAU USD vs DXY DXY is showing a weakening further of the US dollar, but has touched upon a critical imbalance as previously analysed, comparing the imbalance upon XAU in correlation to the SPX, Xau has created an imbalance between $1700 - 1670 on the monthly rejection. This imbalance here can be retested as the SPX moves towards completing the Fibonacci extension sequence and forms its new imbalance upon a monthly time frame. DXY is critical here as it forms a strong outlook in terms of the cross correlation of other assets (shown above) to give an indication of taking the risk in account that the identified imbalance is an area of interest to monitor moves for SPX and XAU alike in respective of awaiting the next action. Excluded - Yields, Fed funds DXY - in depth Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
TVC:SPXLong
by LupaCapital
4
XRP - Daily positional updateHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Update to original here: Previous tracking here: ** Price has rejected the Imbalance at $1.49 and successfully filled the candle wick - up we go! ** Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Below is the outlined top down analysis for the XRP update. Please read and understand the imbalances and take into account the possible zones for new buys, sells, keeping in mind the imbalance in play - currently - long/bullish. Monthly imbalances: The three identified zones are in place here to provide the key areas for where price will look to consolidate before the continuation pattern completes. Price has now broken through the monthly zone . The price will now look to tail off to fall back between $1.21 - 0.84. The price here has been creating higher high with the closes on the monthly candle. The information here price has been informing imbalance buyers is that the big opportunity here is clear to gear up for a buying imbalance. The weekly imbalances The weekly zones are outlined and sit above the monthly, as these act as reversion points for the buying and selling imbalances. The very strong imbalance between $0.26-0.24 shows the great opportunity for longs only, it was just a case of buying in, and when price reverted back to test the low as these newly established trading ranges offer. A clear opportunity to add is recognised here - *subject to higher timeframe whereby closes are filling the wicks and rejecting the monthly. Putting the four day and weekly chart together with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the weekly time frame - the pattern formed showed strong wicks and reversals occurring as price action takes affect. The inefficiencies here are tested but the sellers are now removed and buying imbalances are in place. There has been great opportunities to short from the weekly imbalance to maximise potential upon hedging or purely aggressively selling from +$0.60 zone as the weekly pattern completed. Conversely, this is short lived as the fresh zone is always retested with XRP as the higher weekly lows show a steady formation. Two key criteria to follow here: I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency. II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency. The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required. Cross asset analysis: Using the weekly time frame, XRP is lagging behind the two correlated pairs - however is offering large scope for new zones for smaller imbalances. OMGNetwork - Black Tezos - Green These two coins move with a very strong positive correlation - whereby price Fibonacci retracement tool - zone alignments The two outlined zones are clear indicators of where shorts will be good areas to take profits if you so wish. And also additional buy points. Price will need to close in the desired zone and infill the imbalance upon the four day, weekly timeframe* use these as references. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by LupaCapital
1
CHF JPY - Weekly testHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Four day view The four day chart has provided key information with a great opportunity to highlight the sell area using the Fibonacci tool as a confirmation. Ideally to show a true confirmation - price would look to fill the wick of long legged wick which breaks the scarlet zone . This will show where price should look to before selling. The zone is clear here where price will react before the sell imbalance probability takes over. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances are here to provide the clear view from where price will have considerable tail offs as sellers take over from the buyers. The reason for the key weekly zones forming under the monthly is where lower highs have taken place meaning that the monthly imbalance and price cannot offer a retest of said zone. Monthly Imbalances The monthly imbalances are clearly laid out which present the high and low of the imbalance, the top imbalance has not entirely been tested where a monthly close has tested the 119 - 124 zone, however this being said. Price has reverted to test the Weekly imbalance where price has successfully filled the wick in August 2014 which is where looking left the entire weekly zone has build the structure from. Cross Pair Analysis Using the cross pair analysis using the basis of USD CHF - Orange EUR SGD - Purple The weekly chart shows the relationship using the positive correlated pair against an the USD CHF a major pair with negative correlation. The imbalances are not shown here, however the key takeaway from the chart here is to understand what the USD is doing and the other major is having an inverse imbalance at the present moment. Although CHF JPY are fundamentally two safe haven currencies - the aligned weekly cross sectional zone shows scope for a negative imbalance probability for CHF JPY. Using solely CHFJPY & USDCHF adding imbalances shows a simplified view of imbalances where price can show USD CHF next imbalance zone where price will climb to and CHF JPY inverse. Sell position entry points Using the 4 day Fibonacci tool, a retracement is required where a nice liquidity wick will need to be filled. This will be a key area to monitor for shorts as a double weekly test is highly probable. Possible entries Now that price has tested the "0" Fibonacci creating a bottom, price has created over the last few days some wicks but created an engulfing candle - price will now to look to close the wick fill and move towards 118.60 - where a double top formation has occurred. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
4
CHF JPY - Awaiting sell offHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Four day view The four day chart has provided key information with a great opportunity to highlight the sell area using the Fibonacci tool as a confirmation. Ideally to show a true confirmation - price would look to fill the wick of long legged wick which breaks the scarlet zone . This will show where price should look to before selling. The zone is clear here where price will react before the sell imbalance probability takes over. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances are here to provide the clear view from where price will have considerable tail offs as sellers take over from the buyers. The reason for the key weekly zones forming under the monthly is where lower highs have taken place meaning that the monthly imbalance and price cannot offer a retest of said zone. Monthly Imbalances The monthly imbalances are clearly laid out which present the high and low of the imbalance, the top imbalance has not entirely been tested where a monthly close has tested the 119 - 124 zone, however this being said. Price has reverted to test the Weekly imbalance where price has successfully filled the wick in August 2014 which is where looking left the entire weekly zone has build the structure from. Cross Pair Analysis Using the cross pair analysis using the basis of USD CHF - Orange EUR SGD - Purple The weekly chart shows the relationship using the positive correlated pair against an the USD CHF a major pair with negative correlation. The imbalances are not shown here, however the key takeaway from the chart here is to understand what the USD is doing and the other major is having an inverse imbalance at the present moment. Although CHF JPY are fundamentally two safe haven currencies - the aligned weekly cross sectional zone shows scope for a negative imbalance probability for CHF JPY. Using solely CHFJPY & USDCHF adding imbalances shows a simplified view of imbalances where price can show USD CHF next imbalance zone where price will climb to and CHF JPY inverse. Sell position ready Here is two possible sell scenarios Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
Finally in the zone of interestFrom overbought ATH around 61780 price fell down to oversold and showing us bullish divergence on 4H RSI. When we consider strong support FIBO zone around 52.4K we get great probability for trade with minimal risk. Longs positions are starting stabilize too. (green line above charts). After all of that I will still opening only a small position of my account to leave room for further maneuvering :D Because the price CAN have many obstacles upwards (56500,59300,60000 and ATH.) 15% of account i long at market price. Comment below where you will buy or maybe where you will short: D And if you agree like. I will update this idea in close future so if you want, follow me.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Exly11
1