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🚨💡BTC: 'Hidden' Death Cross 100% Probability of Correction💡🚨Remove the Noise!! This is pure mathematics, statistics and probability. The 'Hidden' Death Cross & 'True' Golden Cross are the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA, which with 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, consistently (100% of cross cycles) result in a significant market contraction or expansion. Note: I am bullish on BTC, but these macro economic cycles must complete and ignoring statistical probability because of over bullish dreams, sentiment or "conviction" is likely the no. 1 fallacy of most traders in all markets. In the following historical analysis, I identify each cross, For contractions, I use the price at the date of the Hidden Death Cross, to the lowest price to determine the price drop percentage. 5 Hidden Death Cross (HDC); 1. 26-Sep-2011: -60% 2. 07-Jul-2014: -73% 3. 28-May-2018: -62% 4. 24-Feb-2020: -61% 5. 30-Aug-2021: -.... - 100% Probability of Market Contraction - Average contraction: 64% Standard Deviation (Confidence); - SD 1 (90%): Max 68% / Min 60% Correction - SD 2 (95%) Max 69% / Min 59% Correction - SD 3 (99%): Max 71% / Min 57% Correction Market expansions are identified from the price at the date of the True Golden Cross, to the highest price to determine the price increase percentage. 4 True Golden Cross (TGC); 1. 16-Jul-2012: +16'890% 2. 20-Jul-2015: +7'192% 3. 29-Apr-2019: +179% 4. 03-Aug-2020: +531% 5. ...... - 100% Probability of Market Expansion Expansion values too variable for significant deviation estimation Conclusion: I am a TA traditionalist, I believe that the price reflects all known / unknown information and that price action reflects human behaviour in reaction to the changing nature of the information to establish the best possible price at that moment in time. Based upon the mathematical analysis of the price action, for example tracking moving averages, we can identify the trends in human behaviour and apply statistical probability to these trends. As can be observed above, the statistical probability of this trend is considerably strong, with a 99% confidence of a drop in the range of 57% to 71% after the Hidden Death Cross that happened the 30th of August 2021. What do you think? yemala
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Yemala
24
Bitcoin 3 Market PhasesIn my experience in the markets, all price action follows 3 main market phases as below: 1) Consolidation: price ranges between two levels and consolidates between that area. 2) Expansion: Price action breaks out of the consolidation with high volatility making rapid impulsive and corrective waves. 3) Trend: The price action finally follows and market has a fixed sentiment where the trend takes place and the main direction of the financial instrument price goes.
Short
by FXwabz
BTC/USD probability correction analisyshello everybody after a small break out from the bottom of the channel, I decided to make some changes to my chart. so I drew a new channel which shows us we had a small change in our momentum, and the new fibo extension indicates new support and resistance level. I expect the price goes to the further targets up to the top of channel, surely we will have some fluctuations in the way, if nothing special won't happen during the week this is my idea. DYOR
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZorgOros
BTC/USD 4H hi guys. after the first pump from 29K, the extension fibo got us proper and fine targets till now , we just reach the target and because the distance of the next target from here is a little high I believe we need a proper correction OR a huge amount of money and investing from whales or big institutions, by the way from 29k till here we have about 70 % growth so if the correction scenario happens it would take 38 to 50 percent of it back or less. so I hope you all saved some profit and watch the chart carefully. if the yellow channel (a wedge shape ) will break we have our targets in pink line which any of them could be the reversal potential area. the extension fibo also can help us to find good levels of knots. this idea will attach in the comment section of previous idea
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZorgOros
BTC probabilityas mentioned in my previous ideas the green upward channel is still valid, I see 2 tension point that are targets for bitcoin which I mentioned them in the chart with ( T ). in my opinion, there is 3 scenario : green: due to the market news and situations in the overall financial market, I believe other markets need a retracement and lately cryptocurrency has had enough news to get attention, also the adaptivity of crypto is increasing day by day, so I believe if any dump or retrace will happen for other markets the smart money will fall into crypto and the green arrow will move into green channel even there is the possibility to break it above. orange: there is a possibility for the price to range between blue and red line this would happen if in close future any fud news will make for BTC and makes doubts in the people mind. RED: this would be the worst scenario which would happen a range market between two red lines and altcoin will suffer if this scenario happens. I don't see any bearish movement, there would be a little retracement for accumulating but no dump for the future, for now, 40 is the basement for BTC.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ZorgOros
NFLX Weekly ProbabilitiesThis statistical indicator (Pivot Probabilities) finds the historical likelihood of any week or month closing between two given pivot points. NFLX is particularly interesting. We have been range bound between $555.88 and $477.58 since June - July of 2020. Using a linear regression of the last 3 months ( excluding the current month's data ), if price reached mean this week it would be at the prices $484 - $480 based on time. Using Pivot Probabilities, looking back 19 years ( the entire time series ) the 29th Week of the year has a 26.32% historical probability of closing below $488.57 ( S3 ). I find it unlikely that we will make this move, but being aware of the likelihood that these events could occur is a massive advantage to risk management strategy. If I were to bias my trade bullish or bearish blindly, lets say by flipping a coin, I could look and see that 78.95% of all closes for this week are below the Central Pivot, currently at $538.30. Just because there is close to an 80% likelihood of profitability in a trade, does not mean it will be profitable. You must make contingency plans for that remaining 20% risk. By taking care of your risk, your profit potential will take care of itself. For example, there's a 15.79% historical probability that we close above $580.04 ( R3 ) by the end of this week. You must be prepared for that R3 outcome as well as you prepare for the S3 outcome. Be safe out there and best of luck!
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by joebaus
One for the patient traders CHFJPY long 📈🙌Entry details are shown on the chart. Working the H1 time frame on this strategy. We're only looking for TP3. Trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency. Last trade took six days to land. This strategy is one for those who can sit on their hands 😆 ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren.
Long
by pow_removetheguesswork
Understanding draw down recovery 😬😥Morning traders. Middle of the trading week all ready! I thought I'd take this opportunity to discuss a topic we all fear and we all find ourselves in at some point in our trading journey. That topic being draw down and your account in a loss of starting capital. The table I have drawn on the chart shows the amount of gain required to get an account back to break even depending on how big the draw down is on your capital. Scary stuff when viewed in a simple table format like and hits home just how big of task over turning losses could be. No trading system or strategy has zero losses or draw down and all strategies endure losing runs. To avoid excessive losses there is two crucial elements. Sounds obvious but cut losing trades quickly is the first element, second element is factoring probability into the trading strategy. Probability helps control risk management which in turns keep losses to a minimum, probability is obtained by carrying out back testing on your strategy. You can't plan for probability in your risk management if you have no data for your strategy. The example I am using for this Idea is on AUDCHF H1 timeframe and thanks to our built in strategy tester I can see if I traded this pair in the manner the strategy is set over the last 292 trades at 1% risk I am 22% down on my account. It would not take in the region of a 25% account gain to be back to near break even on my account!!! You don't need a built in strategy tester to gain this information you can also manually back test a strategy in order to avoid losses and to know if you are entering markets with a proven edge. A trading edge means your strategy creates bigger wins than losses. Which in turn means you avoid the situation shown in the table. To avoid hefty draw down don't enter the markets blind with an unproven strategy. Ensure you have back tested strategies with probability factored in to those strategies that way what is shown in the table wont apply to you then 👍 ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
Triangle breakout in BritanniaNSE:BRITANNIA The stock has fallen 10% from it's 52 week. The trend line acts as a strong support and resistance respectively. *Trade Confirmations* :- The monthly central pivot range is narrow indicating a trending month. :- Descending triangles have good success rates. :- Consolidation near the trend line. *Trade Setup* :- T1 - 3550 :- T2 - 3800 :- SL - 3350 Thank you for viewing my ideas and analysis. Read it completely for complete understanding. Follow me so that you'll get notified whenever I post some content. Let me know through the comment section if you have any doubts or feedbacks. All the best! Happy trading/investing :)
NSE:BRITANNIALong
by Omsai1238
BTC in 4H. two panoramas. English The theory says that its heading for a bearish triangle. we are in a trend continuity pattern. but its a probability, not a certainty. I think there is a 50/50. BTC can break up that resistance at 40,600 or try to look for levels close to 30,000 Español. La teoría dice que se dirige a un triangulo bajista. estamos en un patrón de continuidad de tendencia. pero es una probabilidad, no una certeza. creo que hay un 50/50. puede llegar a romper a la alza esa resistencia en 40600 o intentar buscar unos niveles cercanos a los 30.000
by xfrai3
NZDUSD ShortNZDUSD has surged to the upside due to RBNZ being more hawkish, however volume has subsided and I expect a short back to .72000 1. The previous times the kiwi has risen due to RBNZ a few days later it dropped back below where it rose from. (looking for a repeat) 2. Sell volume has been increasing 3. Kiwi is still range bound and with USD gaining strength - kiwi at top of range, this increases the probability of a short trade This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only
Short
by csohrab
How to use Chobotaru IndicatorOur indicator can now be used by everyone. There are a lot of indicators trying to predict what will be the range of the stock in the future. Some of the indicators, that are well known, are using STD of volatility like Bolinger Bands or using an advanced simulation like Monte-Carlo, and others that are using different methods. Our approach to this subject is different. There is an official volatility predictor called Implied Volatility. (I explained it in a different post) This number can be seen in the options chain in your broker platform. You don’t need to trade options to use this indicator. This indicator shows you a probability cloud, giving you the probability of the stock moving to a certain price. This can help in several ways like determine if your target price is possible, where to put stop-loss, you can also use other technical analyses, like support and resistance to choose which area is best for your trade. The sky is the limit. We tested it on 30(+/-10) days of small market cap and higher. In our testing, the price finished inside the range more than 80% of the time (the result are higher but I’m trying to stay conservative). The user can choose a different option’s time period than 30 days, but the longer the period the higher the chance for a rare event that is not currently priced in. The indicator is based on the partial differential equations from the mathematical model of options, the Black-Scholes model. In simple words, the prices of options give you some indication of how the market thinks the stock should perform. If you take the implied volatility and insert it into the indicator, you can see the probability range, transforming this data into a visual representation. What inputs do you need to enter? Instrument price – The current price of the stock or futures contract. In this example, the close price of the SPY on March 30, 2021, is 394.73 The interest rate – Searching in google: “U.S. Department of the treasury daily yield curve rates”, Use the 3-month value (of the day of the entry or day before). On 03/30/2021 the 3-month value was 0.02% Days to expire (minus trading holidays) – At the end of 03/30/2021, I searched for the option that is the closest to 30 days on the SPY. The option that ending on April 30, has 31 days, in this period we have a holiday “Good Friday”, so I subtract the original number of days from the holiday, 31-1 = 30 Implied Volatility – This number in your trading platform will usually be shown in a percentage, you need to enter a positive decimal number. In this example, the implied volatility of the option was 15.2%, the input is 0.152 The date – The last thing is the date of the entry, in this case, Day – 30, Month – 3, Year – 2021. This indicator can be used on daily bars and everything smaller than that. We recommend using it on daily bars. Try it for yourself on your charts and share your result, if you have any questions, tell us in the comments.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by ZoharCho
4
$60,000 Explosion Big Short movie setupIn the movie, the big short Charlie Geller and Jamie Shipley took trades with options out of the money with low probability. This is an example of such trade, 100 options contract worth $6000 if SOS will run up again, this trade could make $60,000. If the price will move to $21, this trade could make $120,000 This also shows that options are leveraged, if you would like to buy the shares you would need to pay $39,000 for 10,000 shares. In this trade, the max loss is $6000, when buying the stocks the max loss is $39,000 How will it end? What do you say?
NYSE:SOSLong
by ZoharCho
14
Finally in the zone of interestFrom overbought ATH around 61780 price fell down to oversold and showing us bullish divergence on 4H RSI. When we consider strong support FIBO zone around 52.4K we get great probability for trade with minimal risk. Longs positions are starting stabilize too. (green line above charts). After all of that I will still opening only a small position of my account to leave room for further maneuvering :D Because the price CAN have many obstacles upwards (56500,59300,60000 and ATH.) 15% of account i long at market price. Comment below where you will buy or maybe where you will short: D And if you agree like. I will update this idea in close future so if you want, follow me.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Exly11
1
EURUSD ShortLooking at a potential 1:55 short on EURUSD, my bias is relevant to DXY. Expecting retracement on Monday to clear up Thursday/Friday liquidity. My POI is based off of a BTS that needs mitigating, as it has taken out EQH's and left and IMB after it which is all signs of Smart Money. The market has left some EQH's to be taken out on the way to the POI, with IMB's on price above it also. Giving me extra conformation that we will see the market expand upwards. I will be risking 1% on on the entry given, but also 1% on LTF entry.
Short
by ZakRafiq0705
19
The Ace Spectrum as a Template for Support ProjectionDemonstrating the big idea: That straight lines in log-space form exponential curves. This property of the log chart is useful for examining assets with exponential growth (like high-growth stocks, cryptos, etc). Because the log scale asymptotically approaches the absolute scale as y slice decreases, this indicator is really applicable to any time scale. This indicator samples a distribution of lines from the past and projects them into the future, these projected lines form indicators of prior support. The idea is longer support at those specific lines is indicative of support strength, which this indicator approximately captures. My initial goal was to capture this intuition about exponential growth in log spaces by applying a monte-carlo style sampling approach to visualize the latent support lines. After I had captured that in a slightly more complex version of this indicator, my goal was to distill the concept into the simplest possible implementation.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by sheganinans
15
AUDUSD: possible scenario 12.13.2020On the chart you can see a technical picture of AUDUSD, which in near-term may experience a pullback. For outside the market Aussie bulls the first entry level - in my opinion - can be somewhere around 0.74520, the second around 0.73790, etc. Don't forget, that proper risk management and volume calculations before getting an exposure in a certain asset is crucial. This is my personal view or analysis and should not be considered as a personal investment advice.
by GIgor_021
4
USDCAD: possible scenarioHello Traders! On the chart you can see my analysis of USDCAD pair... …in my opinion 1.29930-1.31460 price zone should be considered as an opportunity to open long position, as this is the zone where buyers might show some demand interest. Fundamentally speaking, yesterdays GDP numbers from China were worse than expected, risk-off on the equity markets and uncertainty regarding global oil demand should put some pressure on CAD against the greenback. The first take-profit target can be around 1.33320 price. // Don't forget to follow your personal risk-management rules before opening position. // Make sure you follow me for more upcoming ideas and feel free to share your opinion via comment. If you agree with my analysis support my work by hitting like.) // More info: link in bio ;) Contact me if you have any questions. // Risk disclaimer: This is not an investment advice and you should carefully consider whether trading is right for you in light of your particular circumstances and financial resources.
Long
by GIgor_021