Probabilitycone
UAA longUAA long
Under Armour, Inc. is engaged in the development, marketing and distribution of branded performance apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. The Company's segments include North America, consisting of the United States and Canada; Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA); Asia-Pacific; Latin America, and Connected Fitness. Its products are sold across the world and worn by athletes at all levels, from youth to professional, on playing fields around the globe, as well as by consumers with active lifestyles. The Company sells its branded apparel, footwear and accessories in North America through its wholesale and direct to consumer channels. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had approximately 151 factory house stores in North America primarily located in outlet centers throughout the United States. In addition, the Company distributes its products in North America through third-party logistics providers with primary locations in Canada, New Jersey and Florida
ATUS pushing the extremesNYSE:ATUS pushing the extremes of the 99.9% probability cone. Bids filled at $17.55.
Probability Cone is based on the Expected Move. While Expected Move only shows the historical value band on every bar, probability panel extend the period in the future and plot a cone or curve shape of the probable range. It plots the range from bar 1 all the way to bar 31.
In this model, we assume asset price follows a log-normal distribution and the log return follows a normal distribution.
Note: Normal distribution is just an assumption; it's not the real distribution of return.
The area of probability range is based on an inverse normal cumulative distribution function. The inverse cumulative distribution gives the range of price for given input probability. People can adjust the range by adjusting the input probability in the settings. The probability of the entered standard deviation will be shown in the middle when the "show probability" setting is on.
The Ace Spectrum as a Template for Support ProjectionDemonstrating the big idea: That straight lines in log-space form exponential curves.
This property of the log chart is useful for examining assets with exponential growth (like high-growth stocks, cryptos, etc).
Because the log scale asymptotically approaches the absolute scale as y slice decreases, this indicator is really applicable to any time scale.
This indicator samples a distribution of lines from the past and projects them into the future, these projected lines form indicators of prior support.
The idea is longer support at those specific lines is indicative of support strength, which this indicator approximately captures.
My initial goal was to capture this intuition about exponential growth in log spaces by applying a monte-carlo style sampling approach to visualize the latent support lines.
After I had captured that in a slightly more complex version of this indicator, my goal was to distill the concept into the simplest possible implementation.
