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Increase the difficulty level on yourself. Often, traders like to make things a lot harder for themselves than they need to. Everyone is seeking a silver bullet, truth is "less is actually more". Dow Theory is actually the Grandfather of technical analysis. If you have never heard of this, or even if you have and brushed over it, you are missing out. Some people will say things like "it's over 100 years old it can't work in today's market" Yet, humans have changed very little in those last 100+ years. Sentiment driven by fear and greed is where the secret is hidden. Let me explain by saying Dow theory has 6 "rules" (tenets). 1) Market Moves in Trends Markets have three types of movements: primary trends (long-term trends that last for years), secondary trends (medium-term trends that retrace parts of the primary trend), and minor trends (short-term trends that are typically noise). You will notice I used the weekly for the larger and the daily for the second. When I journal my trade setups; I simply use a traffic light system red lines size 4 for primary, then orange line 3 for secondary and green size 2 for the trigger phase. In addition to that, I mark the trends with 3 boxes and arrows pointing up down or sideways. The second rule; Each trend has three phases: Accumulation Phase. In this phase, informed investors start buying or selling, counter to the general market opinion. Public Participation Phase, more investors notice the trend after it is already underway, and media coverage expands, driving the trend further. (Wyckoff called this a mark-up or mark-down phase) Excess Phase (or Distribution): At this point, speculation is rampant and detached from actual value, leading informed investors to prepare an exit. This is where a lot of Wyckoff, Elliott and other tools such as Smart money concepts all overlap. Then, the 3rd rule. The market reflects all available information, such as economic conditions and sentiment. Therefore, movement in the market averages considers and reflects this information. (in simple terms, discount the news). 4) For a trend to be validated, different market averages must confirm each other. For example, the trend in the Dow Jones Industrial Average should be confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. If one index moves to a new high or low, the other should follow suit to confirm the trend. (I like this one less, but in some instances it can make the next move very obvious.) Rule 5) The trend is your friend, until the end. Until you see a clear change in the direction, a market shift. The trend is still in play. This one, I feel most just can't comprehend. As you can see below, I have marked up the extreme high and low, I know both my primary and secondary trends are down. So now, I can use my EW bias or start looking for a Wyckoff schematic. (if I believe we are about to see a shift in the trend.) You can start to look for information for areas of interest, look into volume and volume profiles. The last rule. Confirming the trend volume expanding in the direction of the primary trend. For an uptrend, volume should increase as prices rise and decrease during corrections. In a downtrend, volume should increase as prices fall. In this example, the Fibonacci levels line up, the volume is slowing, the EW count makes some sense and zoomed out you can see a shift. Now, with all of this info - we could look at "areas of interest" We are in a demand zone on the higher time frame. At this stage, there is no trade entry, but if we were to view a change in the character we could simply take a trade as a pullback on the primary trend down. Something like this; You see, all you are doing is following the trend and taking a look at other tools, auction areas, fib extensions, an EW bias, and hints of a Wyckoff schematic. But under the hood, the 3 trend principle is a simple-to-follow process. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
9
How to Become a Professional Trader!The Triad of Successful Trading: Strategies, Psychology, and Risk Management. Introduction: In the dynamic world of trading, achieving success is a multifaceted challenge that requires a comprehensive approach. While many enthusiasts focus primarily on trading strategies, it is crucial to recognize that a holistic approach, incorporating trading psychology and risk management, is indispensable for sustained success. This article delves into the three pillars of successful trading: trading strategies, psychology, and risk management. Trading Strategies (25 Marks): A robust trading strategy serves as the foundation of a trader's success. This section explores the importance of having a well-defined and tested trading strategy. Investors must understand that possessing the same strategy as others does not guarantee success; execution and adherence are key. Points will be awarded based on the clarity and effectiveness of the chosen strategy, as well as the ability to adapt to changing market conditions. Trading Psychology (35 Marks): Trading psychology plays a pivotal role in determining success or failure in the financial markets. This section emphasizes the significance of maintaining a disciplined and rational mindset. Factors such as emotional control, patience, and the ability to handle losses are crucial components of a trader's psychological makeup. The article will explore techniques to cultivate a resilient mindset, addressing the common pitfalls that novice traders often encounter. Risk Management (40 Marks): Arguably the most critical aspect of successful trading, risk management deserves the lion's share of consideration. This section delves into the methodologies and practices that traders should adopt to protect their capital. Key areas of discussion include position sizing, setting stop-loss orders, and diversification. The article will emphasize the importance of preserving capital and preventing catastrophic losses, assigning points based on the thoroughness and effectiveness of the risk management approach. Conclusion: In conclusion, the path to becoming a successful trader hinges on the harmonious integration of trading strategies, psychology, and risk management. While a strong trading strategy provides direction, a disciplined mindset ensures adherence to the plan, and prudent risk management safeguards against significant setbacks. Traders must recognize that neglecting any one of these pillars compromises the overall structure of their trading endeavors. By assigning marks to each component, this article underscores the balanced significance of these three elements and emphasizes their collective role in achieving success in the complex world of trading. I'm Shaw, a seasoned forex trader with 14+ years of success. Whether you're new or experienced, I'm here to help you achieve long-term profitability. Trending Hashtags: #TradingSuccess #TraderMindset #RiskManagement #TradingStrategies #FinancialMarkets #TradingPsychology #InvestmentStrategy #CapitalProtection #MarketDiscipline #ProfessionalTrader
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by shaw42
FIL/USDT 4H: ready for short positionIn the daily time frame, we can see that after breaking the trendline, it could not cross the static resistance (flip zone) and take back the last top Weakness in price stabilization is evident In the 4H time frame, we have an upward trend line that the price has penetrated twice and is currently moving tangentially with it. There is also a support zone that has prevented the price from falling If the trendline and the support zone are broken, we can enter the short position in this area in pullback (according to the drawn scenario)
Short
by Dealerify_HUNTER
8
What you need to know about being Bullish!As a long time trader and professional investor, it's been awesome seeing the evolution of Bitcoin. It's a place for influencers to say stupid things like Bitcoin to 100k or 250k without any real merit or logic behind such a price point. Often the analysis consists of a handful of useless lines drawn from nowhere to somewhere of interest on the chart. To understand what Bitcoin and the larger crypto market is doing, doesn't take a lot. Especially as it becomes more and more institutional. I've talked about this for a long time here on @TradingView and showed each step of the way. These moves are not as random as they appear. There's a great book by Richard Ney, actually he has a couple talking about market makers and the effect on the markets. However, one little snippet he talks about how the market or a stock/instrument such as Bitcoin can be seen as a warehouse, think of the scale and number of shelves. Now think of the length of time to fully stack that warehouse. This isn't a quick factor... Now break that idea down further & apply it to BTC. If the market makers are the owners of the warehouse, who do they sell to? Well retail of course. The issue is retail simply do not buy in bulk. Once retail get the urge to buy, the warehouse stock gets depleted 'over time'. In addition the market makers need to stock back up. So for them, they need to buy cheap and sell higher. Trading 101 Over the last couple of years, I have shared a chart showing COT data, this is a US based sample size of in essence what the market makers are doing. The data is slow and clumpy, it's lagging much like all the other indicators - maybe even more so. However, that does not matter as all you are looking for is a general bias. You only need to look at Larry Williams who won the Robbins World Cup Championship of Futures Trading, COT data is a key part of his strategy. I've written several posts here covering the topic in more depth, but here's the current snapshot. Asset Managers: This image clearly shows a long, long term bias. Next you have the Leveraged Funds: This image is almost the inverse, we have a negative delta shown. Now in the past I have had people say to me "ah look, institutions getting REKT. Price going up and their short" What you need to understand is how this works. Let me ask you this "Who is selling to you in the rally" Well the guys who bought it cheaper. So here's the lesson: The factors for Bitcoin currently are pretty simple; you have a long term Bullish bias as seen by the Asset Managers . You have a shorter term Bearish bias of the Leveraged Funds Therefore we can look at some other factors. Let's start with a zoomed out view of the market - let's go to a Monthly timeframe. What do you see? Well, I see an overbought stochastic, I also see price moved up as volume fell down (more visible lower TF's). To translate this, the accumulation for the bigger picture is not quite over. Influencers think we are resting on 30k to rally to 250k next week. Unfortunately for their Demo accounts, the market doesn't think like that. Nor do the market makers! Next you can also dig a little deeper into things like Dark Pools again I have covered this in another educational post. As this is an educational post, let's put all of the pieces together. 1> COT data shows Leveraged Funds still have positions to sell 2> Asset Managers have a Bullish Bias 3> Monthly stochastic overbought 4> Volume doesn't match the move up 5> Dark pools... How much is being soaked up under the radar? In the TradingView show back in May, I covered Wyckoff and Elliott and a little about composite man (market makers). www.tradingview.com When using such tools and techniques, the price becomes obvious. Why up or down and at what key levels. Moves like this are pre programmed into the liquidity algorithm. Things you can spot from miles away. So let's finish on putting it all together - The conclusion would be, we are early on in an accumulation phase, we need to stockpile the warehouse to have momentum to newer highs. IF we go directly here we are capped - think of it like fuel in the tank. I have talked about this on several of my streams here. Coupled with the current view of the overall economy. This doesn't have to be difficult. I hope this helps some of you out. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
What ChatGPT has to say about Retail vs Professional Indicators?When it comes to trading, novice traders may be tempted to rely solely on retail trading indicators such as RSI, MACD, Stochastic RSI, Bollinger Band, and ADX. However, relying on these indicators can lead to traders losing money in the long run. One of the main problems with retail indicators is that they tend to generate false signals, which can lead to traders entering and exiting trades at the wrong time. Retail indicators are based on historical price data and do not take into account other factors that can affect market movements, such as news events, economic data, or geopolitical developments. In contrast, professional trading indicators such as market internals, volume profile, market profile, open interest, and volume delta are essential for traders who want to stay profitable in the long run. These indicators provide a deeper understanding of market conditions, which allows traders to make more informed trading decisions. Market internals can provide insights into the underlying market sentiment and identify potential changes in trend. For example, the NYSE Tick Index measures the number of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange that are trading on an uptick minus the number of stocks that are trading on a downtick. A high tick reading can signal bullish market sentiment, while a low tick reading can signal bearish market sentiment. Volume profile, market profile, and open interest can help traders identify support and resistance levels, potential breakout points, and market structure, which can improve the accuracy of their trading decisions. For example, volume profile analysis can reveal where the most significant buying and selling activity is happening, which can help traders identify potential turning points in the market. Market profile analysis can reveal the market's value area, which is the price range where the majority of the trading activity has occurred. This information can help traders identify potential breakout points or reversal areas. Volume delta can help traders identify market imbalances and potential trend changes. For example, if the price is going up, but the volume delta is negative, it can indicate that selling pressure is starting to build, which could lead to a potential reversal. Professional traders also tend to use more advanced techniques, such as order flow analysis and footprint charts, which allow them to see the actual orders being executed in the market. This provides a more accurate view of market conditions and can help traders identify potential trading opportunities. For example, order flow analysis can help traders identify potential order imbalances and see where the big players are positioning themselves in the market. Understanding the difference between lagging and leading indicators is crucial for traders who want to stay ahead of the market. While lagging indicators may provide some insights into past market conditions, they are not sufficient for making profitable trading decisions. Traders must learn to use leading indicators, such as professional trading indicators and advanced techniques, to gain a deeper understanding of market conditions and make more informed trading decisions. In conclusion, relying solely on retail trading indicators can lead to traders losing money in the long run. Professional trading indicators, such as market internals, volume profile, market profile, open interest, and volume delta, provide a more accurate view of market conditions, which allows traders to make more informed trading decisions. Advanced techniques, such as order flow analysis and footprint charts, can help traders identify potential trading opportunities and gain a competitive edge in the ever-changing market.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by PtGambler
Ace Trading Academy - AUDJPY Ascending ChannelHi traders, What do you think about AUDJPY? What I see AUDJPY doing right now is following an Ascending Channel. AUDJPY has tapped the Daily support zone pushing upwards now creating higher highs and higher lows. It is pushing in an upward channel where the highs and lows are tapping the upper resistance line and the lower support line. Looking for trade opportunities inside the channel until there's a break from it. Once the chart breaks look for a retest and a move from that point. Ace Trading Academy
by AceTradingAcademy