Get started

Profile

Trader Profile - Asking Yourself The Right Questions1. YOUR TRADER PROFILE The first thing most traders will have to do is build a portfolio, this process is more complex than just choosing what assets to trade, and in order to build a good portfolio you will need to find your trader profile, which can be determined by asking yourself the following questions: What is your initial capital? What is your targeted return rate? What is your risk aversion? What is the investment horizon? What is your availability? All these questions are related to each other, and as such, it can be difficult to find non-conflictive answers to them. The following sections give information about the theme of each question so that you may more easily identify your trader profile. 1.1 Initial Capital The initial capital you are willing to invest is an important matter, again we could ask ourselves various questions to determine it, but let's go with a simpler approach. A low capital can have a wide variety of effects. Capital is directly related to buying power, and a low buying power will result in the trader being unable to trade certain assets, but more importantly, it comes with a reduced ability to diversify a portfolio, and as a result, makes traders unable to lower their risk level. Leverage can increase buying power without having to have higher capital but it involves significantly increased risk. Having a low capital also means potentially reducing the lifetime of your portfolio since you won't be able to tank more losses, thus conflicting with your investment horizon target. Certain markets are more accessible than others for traders with low capital, this is the case of the forex and cryptocurrency markets that offer high leverages compared to the stock markets. 1.2 Risk/Returns Risk/returns are two correlated concepts, the more returns you expect from an investment, the more risk you are taking, an investment with large potential profits and low risk does not exist. Knowing your risk aversion is crucial if you want to build a good portfolio, and you will need to choose this level in coherence with the other aspects of your trader profile. Financial instruments all have a different risk/return ratio, and it is important to choose them wisely based on your profile. It is also possible to mix various financial instruments in your portfolio, this is a good way to reduce risk, as such you can have a portfolio consisting of 60% derivatives (futures, options...) and 40% bonds. 1.3 Investment Horizon Your investment horizon will be a huge factor of your success in trading, certain traders focus on long term trading, holding positions for years, and will use the buy and hold strategy. Others might hold a position from several days to several months, they are often defined as "swing-traders". Finally, some traders might open and close positions within one trading day, and as such are named "day-traders", a particularly well-known type of day-traders are scalpers, who usually hold positions for only several minutes. Most beginners in trading will start day-trading, and a lot will try scalping, however, it must be noted that the shorter your investment horizon is, the more difficult it will be to be consistently profitable. This has various reasons, one of them is that shorter-term investments require more precise timing, also you are expecting smaller profits than ones you would get using longer-term investments, thus encouraging a trader to use higher leverage, thus maximizing risk, also opening a high number of positions will mean you will lose more from frictional costs (commission, spread...), and since your profits will mostly be smaller, frictional costs will have a higher impact on your profit margin. We strongly advise beginners to stay away from scalping. 1.4 Availability Trading requires time and effort, and it is impossible not to be involved with your positions (even when everything is automated). However, some users will still have more time than others. Traders will have to do certain tasks: Monitor existing positions Execute orders Research for information Users who can allocate a majority of their time to trading will be able to build & update more advanced portfolios and do shorter-term trades, however, traders with less time will often have to seek longer-term trading styles such as swing trading. Conclusion Trader profiles will vary across every trader and understanding the importance of asking yourself the right questions to identify your own trader profile will likely help you overall increase your chances of success in trading. Thank you for reading!
BNC:BLXEducation
by LuxAlgo
8
October 7 PlanAlongside news that President Trump halted relief talks with Democrats until after the election, markets fell apart, retesting the prior week balance and the VWAP anchored from the September highs. Since the cash close, markets have recovered substantially off their overnight lows alongside comments Trump could send $1,200 checks to Americans. The action has been constructive and we're now sitting right on top of a major high-volume concentration that denotes recent value and should allow responsive sellers favorable entry if there has been an actual change in conviction. Auctioning through the high-volume area and recovering the SOC (Scene Of The Crime) would increase the odds we test the 61.8% retracement (i.e., $3,440). Overall, remaining above the $3,370 high-volume area is bullish. Below $3,370 is bearish. This will likely be a go, no-go level in today's trade. Note: Prior to the sell-off, the market was showing signs of a balance-area break-out, piercing through the "Ledge". The fact that it was building value north of the ledge gave initiative longs confidence to discover higher. Given that the news event brought us back into range, there's potential that the responsive participants auction price lower to the other end of balance, near the $3,320 area (i.e., a boundary of the low-volume area which denotes upside directional conviction). Defense of the low-volume area is paramount. Should price probe into and auction through the area, then a likely target would be the recent $3,198 swing low.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
September 27 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: $3,200 High Volume Area; Friday’s Divergence From Value; Balance Area. Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended lower with the S&P 500 correcting as low as $3,200. Recapping last week’s action, Monday's test of the $3,200 high-volume area offered responsive buyers an opportunity to get in at favorable prices. Buying continued through Tuesday, before resisting an area of resting liquidity at $3,300. After disappointments in business activity data and stimulus talks, on heavy-volume and supportive delta, Wednesday's liquidation erased the entire week’s gains. Alongside improvements in home sale data, mega-caps and technology led the market higher, through Friday's close, away from value. Overall, in the bigger picture, the market is churning above $3,200, the site of a large high-volume area which denotes the market’s recent perception of value. When prices trade to a high-volume area, on a swing up auction, then trade should slow allowing responsive longs a good place to enter. Should prices trade and spend time below this area, then perceptions have changed and longs are no longer favorable, at least in the near term. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: John Authers, a Bloomberg columnist, suggested gold is falling due to rise in real yields. “When real yields rise then gold, which pays no income, can be expected to fall. This is true even if real yields are rising from deeply negative territory. To explain the intuition behind this, gold is widely regarded as a hedge against central banking irresponsibility. Recent speculation is that the Fed may not print money and cut rates with quite the gay abandon that had been assumed. This may or may not be good news for the U.S. economy, but it raises real yields and for investors in gold and in risk assets, who might benefit from currency debasement, it is definitely bad news.” bloom.bg Simply put, the theory that the Federal Reserve exhausted itself has buoyed real yields, which have an inverse relationship to metals. Key Events: Monday: Fed Mester Speech. Tuesday: Goods Trade Balance, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Harker Speech, CB Consumer Confidence, Fed Williams Speech, Presidential Debate. Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, GDP Growth Rate, Core PCE Prices QoQ Final, Corporate Profits, GDP Price Index, PCE Prices QoQ Final, Pending Home Sales, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, Fed Kashkari Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech. Thursday: Core PCE Price Index YoY, PCE Price Index YoY, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Price Index MoM, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Markit Manufacturing PMI Final, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending MoM, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Fed Williams Speech. Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM, Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Average Weekly Hours, Non-Farm Payrolls Private, Participation Rate, Fed Harker Speech, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Factory Orders MoM, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final. Recent News: Fed publishes scenarios for the second round of 2020 stress tests, a credit positive. bit.ly Sea level rise increases credit risk for U.S. coastal states and local governments. bit.ly Airlines are calling for COVID-19 coronavirus tests before all international flights. reut.rs Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) gets U.S. licenses to supply to Huawei. reut.rs China air force video appears to show a simulated attack on U.S. base on Guam. reut.rs How secular shifts will force the U.S. commercial real estate market to adapt. bit.ly Government aid and stock gains pushed U.S. wealth to pre-pandemic levels. reut.rs As U.S. business activity loses momentum, home price inflation accelerates. reut.rs JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) to pay nearly $1 billion in spoofing penalty. reut.rs Higher inflation regime in medium term after decade of persistent undershooting. bit.ly A jump in U.S. coal railroad volumes, 2021 forecasts are driving up sentiment. bit.ly Global banks seek to contain damage over $2 trillion of suspicious transfers. reut.rs Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) pushes security with indoor drones, car alarms. reut.rs Crude, product prices diverge as market looks to U.S. stimulus, COVID situation. bit.ly IEA analysis of innovation in batteries and electricity storage, based on patent data. bit.ly U.S. upgrades accounted for three-fourths of affected debt in the latest period. bit.ly Hedge funds see opportunity in the New York, San Francisco apartment markets. reut.rs Low interest rates create pension and investment challenges but lower debt costs. bit.ly China is on course for record LNG imports as industries recover and expand. reut.rs General Electric Co (NYSE: GE) plans to stop making coal-fired power plants. reut.rs COVID ‘firepower’: Britain imposed six month curbs against a second virus wave. reut.rs Microsoft Corporation’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) acquisition of ZeniMax credit positive. bit.ly Bombardier Inc’s (OTC: BDRBF) agreement to sell transport unit credit negative. bit.ly Coronavirus resets Latin American economies at lower base, driving asset risks. bit.ly California banning sale of new gasoline-powered passenger vehicles in 2035. reut.rs Data is suggesting that splits fundamentally change how stocks perform. bit.ly The corporate bond issuance boom may steady credit quality, on balance. bit.ly Per earnings and interest rate forecasts, valuations not supported fundamentally. bit.ly Data expected to confirm sentiment eased across most European countries. bit.ly Wary buyers and softer foreign demand, likely raised Japan’s unemployment rate. bit.ly On balance, 2020’s bond issuance boom enhanced overall financial flexibility. bit.ly Demographics and the rising cost of funding retirement may affect valuations. bloom.bg Key Metrics: Sentiment: 24.9% Bullish, 29.1% Neutral, 46.0% Bearish as of 9/23/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,152,474,010 as of 9/25/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 42.2% as of 9/25/2020. bit.ly Product Snapshot: S&P 500 (ES): TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY TVC:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:RUT AMEX:IWM Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX TVC:GOLD Crude Oil (CL): TVC:USOIL AMEX:USL AMEX:DBO AMEX:USO Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
7
July 26 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Prior-Balance; Weak Highs and Lows; Dull, Emotional Participation; Nasdaq Weakness; Financials Intact. Technical: Broad-market equity indices struggled to hold onto recent gains, evidenced by the failed continuation higher. Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, after a good amount of volatility contraction, the S&P 500 opened inside prior balance and tested lower, before rotating higher, into the gap zone left from the late February sell-off. Pre-open, on Tuesday, the market rallied, further discovering prices up into the gap zone. After the U.S. cash open, Tuesday’s activity was reminiscent of rebalancing to recent overextension. On news that China would react to the closure of its consulate in Houston, Texas, Wednesday’s session saw prices push lower overnight, before turning and balancing out higher, into the close. On more news regarding geopolitics and initial jobless claims turning higher, Thursday’s session experienced a news-driven, emotional liquidation, with the Nasdaq leading lower. Friday’s session opened near a high-volume area, balancing out and trading responsively, before closing and accepting prices lower. Looking beyond broad market indices, the innovation-driven, technology-based sectors are showing signs of relative weakness, while other sectors, such as industrials, energy, and financials are finding more support. Overall, the S&P is in balance. Absent positive news regarding geopolitical tensions, monetary policy, a vaccine, earnings, and stimulus, the market may find itself correcting through time, testing as low as the prior balance area, below $3,180, as more impactful earnings are released. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: Earnings; Durable Good Orders; Consumer Confidence; Initial Claims; GDP; Personal Income; Personal Spending; Employment Cost Index; Consumer Sentiment. Fundamental: Big tech antitrust probe report from Congress expected early fall. reut.rs Nasdaq Composite, tech weakness comes alongside a weaker dollar. bit.ly 5 charts illustrating U.S. economic trends amid the coronavirus pandemic. cnb.cx General Motors Company (NYSE: GM), Volkswagen AG (OTC: VWAGY), Nissan Motor Co Ltd (OTC: NSANY) charge ahead with electric-vehicle plans. on.wsj.com Consulate closures mark escalation between U.S., China. reut.rs Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) to delay 777X as demand drops for big jets. fxn.ws Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) shares dive on manufacturing retreat. reut.rs American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) warns of slow spending recovery. reut.rs Inflation-adjusted bonds are currently priced for very low inflation. bit.ly Proposal to suspend certain payroll taxes is a high priority. bit.ly U.S. home prices, existing home sales rise toward records. bit.ly Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) chose Texas for the new Cybertruck factory. reut.rs FDA orders unauthorized e-cigarettes removed from the market. bit.ly China’s regulators take over insurers, financial institutions to cut risks. bit.ly Supplemental unemployment benefits expire alongside new stimulus efforts. bit.ly Housing strengthens while mortgage forbearance continues to decline. bit.ly Biden may enact higher taxes, climate reform, and increased health care spending. bit.ly EU leaders have agreed on an $860 billion stimulus package. bit.ly Earnings beat expectations, but fundamentals remain weak. bit.ly Commercial real estate market slips despite Federal Reserve action. bit.ly The face value of defaulted non-financial corporate bonds jumped to a record. bit.ly American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL), United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UAL) to lay off workers. bit.ly Dell Technologies Inc’s (NYSE: DELL) VMware spin-off increases uncertainty. bit.ly U.S. global investment banks preserved capital strength in Q2 amid credit provisions. bit.ly UnitedHealth Group Inc’s (NYSE: UNH) earnings, lower leverage is credit positive. bit.ly Sentiment: 26.1% Bullish, 27.1% Neutral, 46.8% Bearish as of 7/22/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,281,189,859 as of 7/26/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 42.9% as of 7/26/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
July 18 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: S&P $3,200 Balance; February Gap; Nasdaq Weakness, Russell and Dow Strength. Technical: Broad-market equity indices balanced higher last week, evidenced by the responsive, tight trading range. Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, the S&P 500 gapped higher, outside of a prior balance area, but failed to continue, rotating back into the prior week’s range. Tuesday’s session continued Monday’s selling activity, but reversed just short of the prior balance area low. After news that Moderna Inc’s (NASDAQ: MRNA) COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine produced antibodies, Wednesday’s session saw prices pushing higher, gapping beyond Tuesday’s range. Buyers attempted to burst through the resting liquidity at $3,230, but failed with prices later following the Nasdaq’s relative weakness lower to close the overnight gap. After some mixed economic data, Thursday's session was dominated by responsive activity, balancing out near Wednesday’s v-bottom low, with sellers lacking conviction the most via the minimal excess low. Alongside monthly options expiry, Friday’s session continued Thursday’s tone with the intraday trading range remaining tight and responsive. Looking beyond broad market indices, the innovation-driven, technology-based sectors are showing signs of relative weakness, while other sectors, such as industrials, energy, and financials are rotating higher off recent support. Overall, the market is in a 3-day balance that it’s likely to break, come next week. Positive news regarding a vaccine, earnings, and stimulus may help further squeeze shorts as we look to fill the gap above, left from late February. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: Earnings; Existing-Home Sales; New-Home Sales; Initial Claims. tmsnrt.rs Fundamental: Airline industry demand projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. bit.ly AMEX:JETS Travel industry seeks government assistance, tax breaks to spur trips. reut.rs Rocket Companies expects profit to surge ahead of the U.S. IPO. reut.rs Canadian wholesale trade posts largest jump in 17 years. reut.rs Flight to suburbs boosts homebuilding as consumer sentiment fades. reut.rs Europe meets on Recovery and Resilience Facility agreement. bit.ly 60% or large firms with sales over $2 billion expect growth to accelerate. bit.ly The U.S. ended Hong Kong’s special status to punish China. bloom.bg Applications for new home purchases rose 54.1% from a year ago. bit.ly Options on the Micro E-Mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 to arrive August, 31. bit.ly 84% of PPP loan recipients will exhaust funding by the first week of August. bit.ly 63% of small business owners say less than 75% of their revenue has returned. bit.ly $64 billion invested in North American startups, down 10% year-to-date. bit.ly Nasdaq optimism hits dangerous levels as tech becomes an attractive hedge. bit.ly $40-per-barrel not a sufficient clearing price for leveraged shale producers. bit.ly China bank lending hits record $1.72 trillion in first half after solid June. reut.rs Dominion Energy Inc (NYSE: D) to sell gas assets, cancel pipeline. bit.ly NYSE:D U.S. withdraws some underwriting requirements, a positive for payday lenders. bit.ly Increase in transactions suggests a rebound in Russia’s economy. bit.ly Acquisition of National General increases Allstate Corp’s (NYSE: ALL) leverage. bit.ly NYSE:ALL U.K. actions to buoy employment and businesses, mitigate prolonged shock. bit.ly Moderna Inc’s (NASDAQ: MRNA) vaccine elicited coronavirus antibodies. bloom.bg NASDAQ:MRNA Corporate credit quality improved in the week ending July 15. bit.ly U.S. and China tech cold war could cost the sector more than $3.5 trillion. bit.ly Canada is poaching tech talent from the U.S. via Express Entry program. bit.ly China shows economic recovery with 3.2% GDP growth in Q2. bit.ly U.S. manufacturing increased for the second month, by 5.4%. on.wsj.com The jobs market is poised to reverse May and June gains. bit.ly Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) made less money despite adding assets. bit.ly NYSE:SCHW Coronavirus surge sparks worries over renewed lockdowns, global fuel demand. reut.rs China’s bull run could signal a Wall Street stampede. bit.ly Cuomo confirms New York City will enter the final phase of reopening Monday. on.mktw.net Brazil to allow citizens to withdraw from pension funds early. reut.rs Ally Financial Inc (NYSE: ALLY) delinquencies, charge-offs of auto loans improve. on.wsj.com NYSE:ALLY Hospitals may be falsely labeling COVID-19 coronavirus deaths. bit.ly Underwriting to come down according to JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM). bloom.bg NYSE:JPM Copper-to-gold ratio suggests rates should be higher than they currently are. bloom.bg Sentiment: 30.8% Bullish, 23.8% Neutral, 45.4% Bearish as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,257,721,540 as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 45.8% as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: S&P 500 (ES): Nasdaq 100 (NQ): Russell 2000 (RTY): Gold (GC): Crude Oil (CL): Treasury Bonds (ZB): Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
9
July 5 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Low-Volume Above $3,150; $3,200 Balance; Tech Overextension; Weakness In Financials, Energy. Technical: Broad-market equity indices one time framed higher last week, evidenced by the higher highs and lows on the daily time frame, and closed the week off near a resistive low-volume area. Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, the S&P 500 established a higher low, above the year-to-date volume weighted average price, and squeezed on good delta, through resting liquidity at and above $3,020. After Tuesday’s challenge higher, the S&P retested $3,100, a high-volume area, and balanced Wednesday, building value and acceptance of $3,100 as evidenced by the responsive participation intra-day. On Thursday, the U.S. economy added greater than expected payrolls, driving prices higher at the open, before establishing excess and fading to close the gap below. Overall, though extended, the market is at an important technical level. Breaking further into the prior low-volume resistance would point to a change in sentiment, quashing the initiative activity that drove prices lower in the first place. Looking beyond the broad market indices, the innovation-driven, technology-based sectors are extended while relatively weak sectors, such as energy and financials, suggest bigger selling may be around the corner. For a continuation higher, buyers must step up on dips and increase participation in search of higher prices, helping ensure value follows closely behind. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: Non-Manufacturing Activity; Final Composite And Services PMI; Initial Claims; Wholesale Inventory; PPI; Consumer Credit; JOLTS. Fundamental: The Federal Reserve destroyed price discovery and delayed the inevitable. yhoo.it Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) placed final part orders for its 747 jumbo jets. fxn.ws NYSE:BA General Motors Company’s (NYSE: GM) China quarterly sales dropped 5%. fxn.ws NYSE:GM Global GDP to remain below pre-virus levels through most of next year. bit.ly The Federal Reserve looks to Australia’s central bank for rate strategy. on.wsj.com Airbus SE (OTC: EADSY) close to slashing jobs as output may drop 40%. reut.rs OTC:EADSY Democratic nominee Joe Biden to end most of President Trump’s tax cuts. cnb.cx Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS.A) to cut asset values by up to $22 billion. reut.rs NYSE:RDS.A Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ: LULU) to buy Mirror for $500 million. bit.ly NASDAQ:LULU By year end, corporate earnings may recover from the pandemic slump. bit.ly Key innovation principles for delivering net-zero emissions, per the IEA. bit.ly Laying out the worst-case scenario, a collapse of the financial system. bit.ly Q2 projections are miserable as average S&P 500 earnings may decline up to 45%. bit.ly The U.S. added 4.8M payrolls, while the unemployment rate shrunk to 11.1%. bit.ly Global refinery utilisation rates in 2021-2024 may be 3% lower relative to 2019. reut.rs Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) beat analyst estimates for Q2 vehicle deliveries. reut.rs NASDAQ:TSLA Brazilian regulators halt Facebook Inc’s (NASDAQ: FB) payments service. bit.ly NASDAQ:FB Large U.S. banks pass the Fed's stress test, but must submit new capital plans. bit.ly AMEX:XLF ASEAN response mitigated economic damage, but unlikely to offset credit risks. bit.ly Sentiment: 22.2% Bullish, 32.0% Neutral, 45.9% Bearish as of 6/27/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 3,223,157,668 as of 7/2/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 46% as of 7/2/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: S&P 500 (ES): TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY Nasdaq 100 (NQ): TVC:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ Russell 2000 (RTY): TVC:RUT AMEX:IWM Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
June 21 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: 4-Day Island; Gap; 4-Day Balance. Technical: Mixed messages provided after equity indices broke the short-term, momentum driven uptrend, and corrected on June 11. Overall, the island of balance left behind, after the market sold-off, is still intact and will offer resistance on upward auctions. If the market trades through that area, then sentiment has changed and the initiative activity that drove prices lower is no longer present. Monday displayed a rejection of lower prices after overnight activity started off weak, on a gap down, but quickly corrected into the regular trading session, impulsing higher, through the $3,000 S&P 500 level. Tuesday’s trade blew through most of the resting offers overnight, into a low-volume area, on a record increase in U.S. retail sales. Later on, after a choppy open, the market established good excess on the lower extreme, and pinned near the $3,100 level. Wednesday and Thursday’s action was fairly muted as the market continued digesting the upward correction going into Friday’s simultaneous expiry of options and futures tied to index products. Despite gapping to the high end of the week-long balance overnight, Friday’s trade was volatile and lacked conviction to continue into the resting liquidity at and above the $3,135 area. Putting everything together, the picture points to the potential for a volatile week ahead. With the removal of S&P open interest, gamma (i.e., the sensitivity of options to changes in underlying price) imbalances and hedging activity could heighten volatility. If liquidation continues into the coming week and value moves lower, then the near-term bullish narrative is no longer intact. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: Existing Home Sales; National Activity Index; Building Permits; PMIs; New Home Sales; Home Prices; Q1 GDP; Durable Goods; Trade Balance; Trade Inventories; Initial Claims; Continued Claims; Personal Income; Personal Consumption; PCE; UoM Sentiment June Final. Fundamental: Mortgage applications jumped for the 11th week in a row. bit.ly Traffic at supermarkets and merchandise stores near normal. bit.ly Oil prices will average less than $60 to ensure production. reut.rs U.S. and Canadian oil and gas rig count falls to record lows. reut.rs On June 26, Russell will implement a record index reconstitution. bit.ly China stressed as repo rates and yields climb, liquidity thins out. bloom.bg Fed shifts away from bond ETFs to a special, diversified index. bloom.bg ECB’s boost to pandemic bond buying isn’t enough. bloom.bg No indication BOE will renew its asset-purchase program. bloom.bg Companies to ditch revenue focus, hone in on market share growth. bit.ly Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) acquired a mapping technology company. bit.ly NASDAQ:FB Square Inc (NYSE: SQ) acquired a Spanish P2P payments app. bit.ly NYSE:SQ Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) closes stores due to resurgence of COVID-19. reut.rs NASDAQ:AAPL Kroger Co (NYSE: KR) posts stronger sales, profit amid pandemic. on.wsj.com NYSE:KR Unemployment claims decline, but at a slower rate. bit.ly Shopper engagement is higher with mobile ecommerce apps. bit.ly High-yield downgrades drop from March and April readings. bit.ly MIT, Harvard, and others on how capitalism will emerge after COVID-19. bit.ly Startups focused on saving time and money may thrive. bit.ly Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT), Shopify Inc (NYSE: SHOP) partnership a credit positive. bit.ly NYSE:WMT Facebook Inc’s (NASDAQ: FB) Brazil payments service cuts into bank profits. bit.ly NASDAQ:FB GrubHub Inc (NYSE: GRUB) acquisition a credit negative for U.S. online food-delivery. bit.ly NYSE:GRUB EU solvency rule amendments to improve bank capital ratios and support the economy. bit.ly No-deal Brexit to compound risks for sectors hit by pandemic disruption. bit.ly Americans increased spending while working from home. bit.ly France lifts most of its COVID-19 restrictions. on.ft.com AT&T Inc’s (NYSE: T) sale of Warner Bros. would fetch around $4 billion. cnb.cx NYSE:T USD to weaken as Fed commits to QE infinity. bit.ly ARM-based Macs to expand Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) PC market share. bit.ly NASDAQ:AAPL U.S. natural gas extraction efficiency improves, increasing production rates. bit.ly AMEX:UNG Air maintenance firms brace for a 75% sales decline this year. reut.rs The U.S. weighs a $1 trillion infrastructure plan to spur the economy back to life. bloom.bg Loan default rate approaches 4% on imminent energy bankruptcies. bit.ly Airports resilient despite pandemic fallout. bit.ly AMEX:JETS Sentiment: 24.4% Bullish, 27.8% Neutral, 47.8% Bearish as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,194,659,186 as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 52.5% as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
AUD/NZD Volume Profile AnalysisIdentify the Trend T he first thing to do is to identify whether there is a rotation or a trend. In this case it is pretty simple. The 1st VWAP deviation (Weekly VWAP) is moving upwards. This means that the price and volumes are shifting upwards and that there is an uptrend. In this case you could also tell by just looking at the price action without using the VWAP. Sometimes it is not so clear as here though… Volume Profile analysis Let’s now have a look some more into the volume distribution in this trend area. I used my Flexible Volume Profile to the whole trend area to identify places where significant volumes were traded. There are two significant volume areas visible. The first one (around 1.0580) corresponds with the support from the VWAP Trend setup (the picture above). As the price was moving upwards, buyers were adding to their long positions in those heavy volume areas. It is likely that when there is a pullback into those heavy volume areas, buyers will want to defend their longs and they will try to push the price upwards from those areas again. I hope you guys liked today’s analysis! Let me know what you think in the comments below! Stay safe and happy trading! -Dale
by Trader_Dale
EUR/GBP: Intraday Analysis With Volume Profile 📉Today, I will focus on the intraday analysis of the EUR/GBP. What caught my eye here was a rotation from which a strong sell-off started yesterday. Why it caught my eye? Because in a rotation, heavy volumes are usually traded (accumulated). Big trading institutions need a rotation to accumulate their big trading positions. They need time and liquidity. The rotation takes some time so that suits them. When a price rotates then it also means that the market found its fair price (fair value) – at least temporarily. And this means traders are willing to buy and sell there = there is liquidity. When there is a sell-off after such a rotation, then it indicates that the big guys (institutions) were building up their positions in that rotation. They were doing so unnoticed and without their intentions being revealed. After that, they started manipulating the price aggressively (with market orders) to start a trend. Volume Profile analysis When I see a rotation from which a trend starts, then I look into that rotation using my Flexible Volume Profile. I look for a place where the volumes were the heaviest because this is the place where the big guys placed most of their positions. This is an important place, because when the price makes a pullback into this area again, then it is likely that those big guys will start defending their positions. How will they defend them? They will start to sell aggressively again to push the price downwards. And that’s what I want to see. That’s what I want to participate in! So, what I do is that I wait for the pullback and then enter a short from the place where they accumulated most of their positions. In this case, it is 0.8933. This is currently the strong intraday resistance on EUR/GBP. I hope you guys liked today’s intraday analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below! Stay safe and happy trading! -Dale
by Trader_Dale