Prices return to above 21 EMAPrices are targeting the area around 24.11 to regain a foothold above the 21 EMA.
Projection
Bitcoin BTCUSD ForecastI could see something like this play out.
Moving averages are the 50 week and 200 week but put on the daily chart (350 bars and 1400 bars)
Daily Chart Coinbase:
Weekly Chart Coinbase:
Bitstamp Weekly Log Chart:
Bitstamp Daily Log Chart:
Let me know your thoughts below!
What is your prediction?
BTTBTC Correction Wave AnalysisBINANCE:BTTBTC
BTT is currently in a correction wave.
Price movement is tight and looks like to be forming a Elliott triangle wave. Looking for a thrust out of the triangle to the upside to finish wave B.
A shallow wave C should follow with support at the 0.00000029-0.00000028 level if we are to see any signs of strong bullish behavior before resuming the previous trend.
This will also form the cup and handle pattern.
If those levels does not hold, then we will see a deeper wave C looking for support at 0.00000025 and then 0.00000021.
Ultimate '19 Bear Market Target >>$1350 (Bollinger Bands weekly)If you check out the Bollinger bands on the weekly BTC chart, you would see how over extended they become when BTC hits its all-time highs.
Using a basic analysis on the Bollinger Bands bottom (lows) at each all time high, gives a very good projection/indication of the lowest price range of BTC in each following bear market.
Projecting the above theory to the December 2017 bubble, we can project that the BTC bottom will be around the $1350 price (ranging between $950 and $1755) within the March-May 2019 window .
My best guess is a quick shot down to the $1350 target from the $3k levels sometime in late Feb/early March, followed by a swift U-shaped recovery back to the $3k levels in April to begin the new consolidation phase & Bull market...
Forecast US 10 year treasury yieldThis is an attempt to forecast the yield on treasury notes based on technical analysis. Clearly this is an incomplete analysis as fundamentals will also impact heavily. So let us consider the following a base case. First, there are trends in the yield. I would not call it cycles because they have different duration. Those thends tend to last a longer time, more than six months. I use the average trend duration to make a forecast of the bottom. Second, Fibonacci is used to make a price projection. 38% retracement would mean going down to 2.5% (from 2.8% today). 62% retracement is 2.0%. The fall in yield will not be smooth and will have ups and downs (indicated by an ABC pattern from Elliott. but it could equally well be an 12345).
Forecast: In July 2019 the yield will have fallen substantially. A good benchmark is 2.3%.
The analysis is incomplete because it does not take explicit Fed action into account. A 10 year yield of 2.5% would invert the yield curve even without any further increase in the short term rate by the Fed.
NIKKEI / ELLIOTT WAVE PROJECTIONS / H4Trading Bias: Short
Technical Strategy: Trend continuation + Elliott Wave projections
*Will look to capture wave 5 within the anticipated sell zone*
EURAUD Short EURAUD showing slight weakness for a short opportunity.
1Hr Bearish Engulfing and a 4Hr bearish engulfing.
This is also completed a three wave structure to commence the C wave.
Yellow Projection: Our preferred scenario to fall to the area of accumulation. Look for any sells through to this point.
Divergence between two peaks of RSI and we have the stochastic approaching the 50 line.
Teal Projection: Second scenario could break the prior A top then head south.
The risk: Keep your stops above blue A if you have the capacity otherwise $1.5830 for a nice tight stop on this short play.
USDCHF#USDCHF #Trading
Yellow Projection: Price could strengthen from here and tag through the trend line. Don't be fooled by this imposter bullish sign, as we still could expect one more wave down to 61.8% to compete the 3 wave correction.
Teal Projection: Second scenario would be crossing the trend line with great momentum taking price to $1.04.
Don't be frightened to take short positions down to the extreme level with any bearish continuation pattern. If price falls to the 78.6% - 88.6%, wait for RSI (cross the 20) and STOCH to cross (Cross 20 or 50 minimum) simultaniously and any other indicators to support to buy.
The risk: Price could fall and tag the (X) wave which would be a wash out, then head towards the target area.
Overall I am following yellow arrows and will only trade the yellow signals. I'm 80% bullish if yellow triggers.
AUS200 / TECHNICAL CHART / H4Trading Bias: Neutral
Technical Strategy: Fibonacci projections + Support and Resistance calculations to determine future price action.
Chart Pattern: Inverse Head and Shoulders
In the eye of the hurricane one must go with the flowWithin the present correction a bear stand is the only logical position. Sure it can turn over, and with the current volatility it may well go up or sideways. I believe there is still margin for the SPX500 drop at the very least to the 2591, as that is the full Fib retracement of the previous up swing. If Europe opens lower and Japan and China bleed all over there is no other path and something really unexpected would take us out of this quagmire. But beware! This may well not rest at the fib prediction. If we go lower up to 2394, this is officially bear market territory and it will take several months to get out of there
Some other reasons that lead me into believing we can continue, is how fast we broke the previous channel, and even it's projection lower served as poor support. It hang in there for 3 days, then it broke that level with one slight visit upwards, which confirmed the down move. Momentum is really low, and even if it may turn upwards, It is in deep bear territory. Bull approach at your own risk
This said, with such volatility, I will enter cautiously looking just to get out as soon as we reach the fib level of 2541. I will use an almost 1:1 risk reward ratio; something lower like 1:2 or thereabouts would stop me before this morning for sure.
