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Weekly S&P ProyectionSince the market did not correct as expected, this opens up the possibility for a new period of euphoria. As show in the graph this has happened before from the year 2020 to 2022. Price is typically considered to not follow a normal distribution, therefore using one to estimate if price is over extended has its flaws. This is because the true distribution of a security is a multinomial distribution, where price can either go up, down or stay equal. The reason price behaves in such an odd manner is because price, has 2 unknown probabilities. Such probabilities can be calculated for the past, but not for the future. These are the probability of a price increase, and the probability of price staying the same, consequently the probability of price decreasing will be 1 minus the sum of the two previous probabilities. The value of such probabilities also fluctuates, and is determined by the market. When a market becomes overexcited, the probability of price increasing is closer to 1 than it's other counter probabilities. When this happens, a normal model no longer becomes suitable for estimating the limits of the distribution. If one has a multinomial distribution, thought of as a graph with nodes in a shape of a 3D tree, where each node has a relationship with 3 subsequent nodes. Where each relationship carries one of the probabilities mentioned before (with no repetitions). Starting with 1 initial node, then 4 then 16 … previous+previous*3n. One is able to create a mental map of true, the price action distribution. From these, one could calculate new limits, by using bootstrapping. However, since the computational power of such algorithm is complex, we can use the mean returns indicator to evaluate the trend and see that currently the trend is positive. This would mean that the probability of increasing is most likely also closer to one. If the mean returns were at 0 then the probability of price staying the same would be closer to one, and if it's below zero the same is true for a downtrend. Currently, the trend is positive, and not close to the theoretical limits of price action. This means that the probability of seeing a skewed distribution in the future are relatively high. However, if you still use a normal distribution to estimate the limits, then price is due for a correction. Only time will tell, as over excitement can move markets past their technical limits, and that is something that will always be a flaw in any technical approach to model price action.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DarkMessiah777
Top of Our Channel Tagged to the Dollar!Here we are again traders. Tagged the top of our channel to the dollar. What precision! Big resistance pressure up here. I am not sure the bulls have the strength to finally break us out and above. Therefore, be ready to start taking profit (if you haven't already). It is quite possible that we come back down to the bottom of our channel or even lower, especially with all that is going on in the world. Never rule out another black swan or flash crash.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
TOTAL CRYPTO TICKERThe auto fib retracement and auto fib extension show both indications cryptocurrency ripe to for taking in addition to a complete bottoming out of the price as a whole. Distracted by something, or too busy soaking up the second month of summer? Long orange line represents the time period when the drop happened and the price of cryptocurrency going beyond the 100 day without improving therefore falling. Looks like an opportunistic moment where the fibonacci levels appear as though cryptocurrency is flailing around underneath the resevoir of time and money.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by CryptocurrencyBlot
The Power of Standard Deviation (STDEV)Hello everyone, This morning was a great chance to show the power of using Standard Deviation (STDEV) for targets. I usually put it on the London session. That's what I've done here. As you can see, the levels are almost identical to the ones marked using market structure. This is another useful advanced tool that can add to your arsenal to help bring your trading to the next level. This is very easy to use, and you can use the FIB tool with these levels to make your own STDEV tool. I hope you found this insightful and useful. Happy Holidays!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by The_Lioness
Solana ProjectionsTraders, As projected Solana did break to the upside of our area of confluence which was the intersection of our 50 day, 200 day, and descending TL (black). As you know, I had been waiting for this break before making an entry. The confirmation candle came but the move was too quick for my liking. I am not about chasing. So, here's what I am now waiting for: Solana tags resistance at HKEX:25 - HKEX:26 , Solana then pulls back for a classic retest of previous resistance (now support), and then, Solana takes off towards our target area. All of this should take quite a few weeks/months. I will be looking to enter at either a retest of our 50 day/200 day or descending TL. Stay tuned. Stew
COINBASE:SOLUSD
by stewdamus
2
SPX has many options to choose fromJack is back! Jack has been trading the S&P 500 for years and knows that there are always many options to choose from when it came to making a trade. He watches the market closely, paying attention to the resistance and support levels that he knew could make or break his decisions. One day, Jack noticed that there was significant resistance near the 4050-4080 range , which is near the 61.8% golden zone rejection area. He knew that if the market couldn't break through that range, it would continue to look bearish. However, Jack also knew that if they could break through that range, there was a high degree of possibility that the market would climb to 4300 in the next few weeks. Jack also knows that there is significant support at 3800 , and he knows that if the market dropped to that level, it would be a good opportunity to buy more stocks at a lower price to hold for a few weeks. Jack is keeping an open mind when it comes to the wedge formation, but he knows that it is only a projection and not the primary count. He understands that projections are based on assumptions and could be unreliable, and that it is too early to make any predictions on a wedge trade. Instead, Jack is monitoring the market closely, keeping an eye on any changes in the resistance and support levels. He knows that it is important to stay informed and make informed decisions based on the current state of the market, rather than relying on projections or assumptions. While the wedge formation is an interesting development, Jack is careful not to let it cloud his judgment or influence his trading decisions until more concrete evidence is available.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bitdoctor
2
AUDJPY - FUNDAMENTAL + TECHNICAL BIAS#AUDJPY AUDJPY is going down a bit due to MARKET RISK OFF in the previous days. But even now we see that the MARKET is somewhat MARKET RISK ON. We expect AUDJPY to RETRACE to higher resistance. Anyway, if AUDJPY goes DOWNSIDE again, VIX should go up, JPY should go up, and STOCKS should go down. The dollar should continue to strengthen in this way. If MARKET RISK is ON, you can definitely BUY at 96.63 LEVEL. Currently, the market risk is off. But somehow it may go down to 91.543 LEVEL before going UP. After that, AUDJPY may go up to 96.63 LEVEL. To buy AUDJPY, VIX must be DOWN and SNP500 must be UP. Further, the TREND LINE should be BREAK. And COMMODITIES should definitely be UP. We are waiting for the change in the above mentioned MARKETS. If the dollar is strengthened by the FED, MARKETS RISK should be off. Then AUDJPY may become LONG TERM SELL after JPY STRONG.
by benny_marshall
Pick up that COIN when it hits da floorWhen a coin drops it is merely instinctual to pick it right up, thats money we're talking about, can't leave it on the floor... Using a term I coined, harmonic wolfekraft, I have obtained the following scenario for COIN. Summary - Look for a bounce around 135 this week (4/18-4/20 range most likely). The bounce zone is 130-140. If it drops below that we might have a bigger problem on our hands and it could drop as low as 92. More likely to bounce in zone though. - Initial target of 166 by around 4/25 (before the Apr 29 expiry) - Intermediate target of 227 -240 by mid-June (the 227 is actually possible by 6/2 ) - Max Target by 6/24 is 350s - this is theoretically possible, but not statistically plausible... the time-series adj. target by 6/24 is 288. Explaination : - The bigger picture is that COIN is working toward completing a larger bearish harmonic, with the X at its ATH right after its IPO, the C is TBD but I used logic from the nested smaller harmonics within, levels from wolfe waves, proprietary control charts, and MMM by how options are currently priced to determine a bounce zone/bottom likely in the 130-140 range (worth watching closely this week). - Within the AB of the larger developing harmonic, COIN completed a nested bearish Crab within a bearish deep crab back on 5/12/'21 - 11/9/'21. From there it started downside to the larger C. - There is a new nested bearish harmonic development that aligns with a bottoming around 135. A bounce from around 135 would setup for a potential completion of a nested Bearish A Butterfly within a slightly larger Bearish A Butterfly, and interestingly, their D would form right at the intermediate targets I am getting using wolfe-wave EPA-ETA off the 1-4 resistance. These same levels are also showing up as critical levels in a stability monitoring algo I created using control charts and robust rando cut forest. Essentially, below 135 in a weeks time would make COINs level a statistical outlier with over 90% probability of explosive bounce. - looking at the MMM for Apr 22 the range is 135 -160 which aligns with bounce zone and point bounce level. The MMM for Apr 29 is priced for 130-165 - the initial target/time to target I am getting from using the minor wolfe wave (blue) in chart is 166. I do love this setup. Note the relatively huge wolfe wave buy signal that just occured (bottom panel (wws)); at smaller time frames (5-15 min), there are trace buy signals starting to show up which indicates bounce is near. - finally, the intermediate targets using the major wolfe wave 1-4 projection (grey in chart) are, indeed, statistically plausible: fitting a time series model to COIN, an optimal selection is ARIMA(2,1,2) w/ p = 0.42. The upper 80-95% Prediction Interval on 6/2 (223-263) spans the intermediate target range of 227-240. The adjusted target by 6/24 of 288 is the 95% PI.. although such a move would be kinda crazy, it could occur in a scenario where BTC explodes and COIN follows and runs to meet its 1-4 projection prior to ETA (not impossible, but not expected TBH). I am expecting a bounce to initial target and then a continuation on that momentum to the intermediate target range and am considering the following play (FOR THE CURIOUS, OBVIOUSLY NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE): COIN May 13 160 calls IF it bounces at or before 135 this week COIN June 17 185 calls IF it bounces at or before 135 this week Bless you all, The Alpinist
NASDAQ:COINLong
by JerryManders
6
🤑 .50 $Trias incomingIt's been a while since I charted anything significant when it comes to trias. Well from what I see on the charts, trias looks very bearish. It's currently at a key support level, in which if it breaches we could see $1. There's not much support after that, which makes me think it's possible we could see it tank even further to .50 cents, yes .50 cents! This is a great buying opportunity for long-term investors. Sell in the green buy in the red. It's simple! Anyways, may peace be the journey, remember don't FOMO and always take profits!
TShort
by Nick.TkgProfits
10
$Tel is coming for 0.01 🤔 Tel currently is breaching overbought territory on the Jurik. With that being said At some point $Tel has to cool off. It’s looking to test resistance at 0.0083 & 0.01. So what I think happens is that it takes 0.0083, and possibly rejects off of another resistance area of 0.098 - 0.01 area back down to 0.0083. And try to take out 0.01. This is of course if everything remains constant with bitcoin. The monthly is still bearish, but into the short-term, it looks Bullish on most indicators!
Long
by Nick.TkgProfits
$Bepro looking to take back $0.006Okay, I'm getting conflicting signals on all-time frames when it comes to $BEPRO in the long-term, so I need to do a bit more digging. However, in the short to medium term, it has revealed itself in the daily time frame. $Bepor has been consolidating for some time from a macro perspective on the larger time frames. On the daily time frame or 12HR, it has been slowly making moves upward. the Jurik RSX (smoother RSI) is telling me that it is currently highly over-bought, and may need to cool off. The MACD tells me buying pressure is increasing, and the fact that there's a 3 white soldiers pattern potentially playing out, signifies that $Bepro could test the 0.004 area. With all things remaining constant bitcoin doesn't do something crazy or "goes off into the deep end". I see $Bepro testing the resistance at 0.004 area, flipping it into support then consolidate there, or get rejected come back down to 0.002 support. Bounce off 0.002, and head for a larger move to 0.006. Anyways, may peace be the journey, remember don't FOMO and always take profits!
Long
by Nick.TkgProfits