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Evergrande: A DiscussionConcerns Investors May Have: China is said to contain more of the world's real estate assets than any other country. Therefore one concern is the potential impact a possible default may cause to international property markets. Consumer confidence in real estate investments could reduce and perhaps lower property demand, potentially reducing real estate prices. Should this occur to a great extent, pre-existing property loans could outvalue the revaluation of the real estate asset. This potential major contrast between loans outvaluing the associated properties could collapse some banks internationally. A possible mass sell-off of property globally by investors and banks could burst the property bubble. Another concern is investors could forfeit involvement in companies offering similar services. There ore other confounding factors involving the current pandemic, employment, inflation and among others. Thank you for reading. Please share your thoughts. Do you believe this company could be bailed-out or would other companies in a similar position expect similar treatment? ---- Disclaimer: This does not constitute any form of advice including legal, financial or investment advice and should not be construed or relied on as such. Always seek advice from a qualified and registered legal practitioner or financial or investment adviser. Information presented is for entertainment purposes only.
HKEX:3333
by calculations
Property versus equities in Australian marketsThere is a lot of talk about housing prices here in Australia at the moment and the affordability for new entrants to the market. It is always a trade off between investing in property and investing in equities or other asset classes. There are benefits to owning both property and stock. This graph is a ratio of the market capitalization of two ETFs, one in property, and one tracking ASX 200 equities. If the graph is going up, then that indicates that property is currently outpacing the ASX 200, and vice versa for going down.
ASX:MVA
by mind-wattle
1
If bottom picking is your shtick - HYPROP - SA Listed PropertyYup, on the 1D JSE:HYP chart it's all bad: - Bear channel (not bull flag!), - MACD death cross, - RSI @37 but looks like it has more to give, - Price < 5EMA < 15EMA < 200DMA. Yucky. HOWEVER, if you enjoy rolling the dice on bottom picking, consider the following: - During the peak of the Covid selloff (no vaccines, armageddon, etc) HYP was trading in a range call it R15 to R25 - Current price is at the top of this range - in other words, the price is now as good as it was when there was no hope. - Depending on whether you're a glass half full or half empty person, you could view the current charts as a great confirmation for a short. End of days etc. Conversely, you could view it as an accumulation zone between R23.15 and R25.15. Things can't get any worse etc. Regarding fundamentals, some additional considerations: - HYP does have some exposure to Africa & the Balkans, but it is primarily an SA large shopping center owner (85%+ of income). Its prospects are thus primarily correlated with economic growth & the efficacy of the vaccine rollout over the next year. - It has no KZN exposure & some of the best quality assets in WC (Somerset Mall & Canal Walk). - It has very little office exposure, so work form home is not a valuation driver here. - LTV's, especially after the Atterbury disposal, are now 35.8%. Low & safe, nothing to see here. - It has completed its book build (read: your dilution is already factored in) @R28.00. The institutional types who do things like buy book builds were happy to pay 13% more than the current price. - Its NAV Dec-2020: R74.48. June-2019: R95.78. Therefore it's trading at call it a 66% discount to NAV after Covid write downs were properly factored into NAV, and at call it a 75% discount to pre Covid NAV. That seems like a lot. - Before the world ended it was paying divs in the R6.60 p.a. area. Even if only half of that is restored (R3.30), you're still looking at a 13-15% div. To be clear, the price can still get worse, this thing is clearly rolling down the hill. However, if you have a medium term view and the stomach & balance sheet to ride out some volatility & drawdowns over the next 6 months, accumulating a position at R23-R25 or cheaper may pay off very handsomely over a 12 month period. Safe trading UC ps. a nice summary of the risks involved: www.moneyweb.co.za
JSE:HYPLong
by unclecool787
GrowthPoint Properties LimitedA nice channel is developing, but it must break above R15 to give me confirmation that it is still in an uptrend. It's at a major support level now (14) and if it breaks lower then I believe R13 could be tested. If it breaks lower that should be fine as long as it doesn't confirm a new lower low - I want to see it above R13.20 for me to feel confident. My stop loss is at R12.50 - at this point, I will cut my losses and accept an 8% loss on capital. What are your thoughts? Are you a buyer or a seller?
JSE:GRTLong
by TalkingCents