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Evergrande: A DiscussionConcerns Investors May Have: China is said to contain more of the world's real estate assets than any other country. Therefore one concern is the potential impact a possible default may cause to international property markets. Consumer confidence in real estate investments could reduce and perhaps lower property demand, potentially reducing real estate prices. Should this occur to a great extent, pre-existing property loans could outvalue the revaluation of the real estate asset. This potential major contrast between loans outvaluing the associated properties could collapse some banks internationally. A possible mass sell-off of property globally by investors and banks could burst the property bubble. Another concern is investors could forfeit involvement in companies offering similar services. There ore other confounding factors involving the current pandemic, employment, inflation and among others. Thank you for reading. Please share your thoughts. Do you believe this company could be bailed-out or would other companies in a similar position expect similar treatment? ---- Disclaimer: This does not constitute any form of advice including legal, financial or investment advice and should not be construed or relied on as such. Always seek advice from a qualified and registered legal practitioner or financial or investment adviser. Information presented is for entertainment purposes only.
HKEX:3333
by calculations
Property versus equities in Australian marketsThere is a lot of talk about housing prices here in Australia at the moment and the affordability for new entrants to the market. It is always a trade off between investing in property and investing in equities or other asset classes. There are benefits to owning both property and stock. This graph is a ratio of the market capitalization of two ETFs, one in property, and one tracking ASX 200 equities. If the graph is going up, then that indicates that property is currently outpacing the ASX 200, and vice versa for going down.
ASX:MVA
by mind-wattle
1
If bottom picking is your shtick - HYPROP - SA Listed PropertyYup, on the 1D JSE:HYP chart it's all bad: - Bear channel (not bull flag!), - MACD death cross, - RSI @37 but looks like it has more to give, - Price < 5EMA < 15EMA < 200DMA. Yucky. HOWEVER, if you enjoy rolling the dice on bottom picking, consider the following: - During the peak of the Covid selloff (no vaccines, armageddon, etc) HYP was trading in a range call it R15 to R25 - Current price is at the top of this range - in other words, the price is now as good as it was when there was no hope. - Depending on whether you're a glass half full or half empty person, you could view the current charts as a great confirmation for a short. End of days etc. Conversely, you could view it as an accumulation zone between R23.15 and R25.15. Things can't get any worse etc. Regarding fundamentals, some additional considerations: - HYP does have some exposure to Africa & the Balkans, but it is primarily an SA large shopping center owner (85%+ of income). Its prospects are thus primarily correlated with economic growth & the efficacy of the vaccine rollout over the next year. - It has no KZN exposure & some of the best quality assets in WC (Somerset Mall & Canal Walk). - It has very little office exposure, so work form home is not a valuation driver here. - LTV's, especially after the Atterbury disposal, are now 35.8%. Low & safe, nothing to see here. - It has completed its book build (read: your dilution is already factored in) @R28.00. The institutional types who do things like buy book builds were happy to pay 13% more than the current price. - Its NAV Dec-2020: R74.48. June-2019: R95.78. Therefore it's trading at call it a 66% discount to NAV after Covid write downs were properly factored into NAV, and at call it a 75% discount to pre Covid NAV. That seems like a lot. - Before the world ended it was paying divs in the R6.60 p.a. area. Even if only half of that is restored (R3.30), you're still looking at a 13-15% div. To be clear, the price can still get worse, this thing is clearly rolling down the hill. However, if you have a medium term view and the stomach & balance sheet to ride out some volatility & drawdowns over the next 6 months, accumulating a position at R23-R25 or cheaper may pay off very handsomely over a 12 month period. Safe trading UC ps. a nice summary of the risks involved: www.moneyweb.co.za
JSE:HYPLong
by unclecool787
GrowthPoint Properties LimitedA nice channel is developing, but it must break above R15 to give me confirmation that it is still in an uptrend. It's at a major support level now (14) and if it breaks lower then I believe R13 could be tested. If it breaks lower that should be fine as long as it doesn't confirm a new lower low - I want to see it above R13.20 for me to feel confident. My stop loss is at R12.50 - at this point, I will cut my losses and accept an 8% loss on capital. What are your thoughts? Are you a buyer or a seller?
JSE:GRTLong
by TalkingCents
ADHI membeli, menahan, atau menjual?Terima kasih telah menonton. Grafik ADHI menunjukkan kelemahan yang signifikan. Hampir semua kenaikan harga selama 10 tahun sebelumnya telah terhapus. Jadi jual, tahan, atau beli? Sayangnya, fibonacci tidak membantu karena semua level retracement normal telah terlampaui. Hanya ada dua level yang harus diperhatikan; 360; ayunan rendah baru-baru ini dan 120, terendah sepanjang masa 2008. Saya berharap level 360 akan diuji ulang dalam jangka pendek terutama karena faktor fundamental seperti Indonesia memasuki resesi, kehilangan pekerjaan yang drastis, dan penurunan permintaan di beberapa sektor bisnis utama yang dilayani oleh ADHI, terutama perhotelan, minyak dan gas, dan cluster perumahan. Keramahan; hotel dan restoran sangat terpukul oleh krisis pada tahun 2020 dengan penurunan hunian hotel bisnis dan rekreasi. Saya tidak akan terlalu khawatir tentang konstruksi baru di sektor ini karena yang jauh lebih mungkin adalah pengurangan kapasitas. Minyak dan gas; dibandingkan dengan awal Jan atau Feb 2020, minyak dan gas merupakan industri yang sangat berbeda. Sebagian besar produksi telah lepas landas. Biaya eksplorasi dipangkas. Garis waktu untuk elektrifikasi pembuatan kendaraan telah maju dan industri kendaraan global menjauh dari mesin diesel dan bensin. Saat ini, karena alasan lain, permintaan jauh di bawah level 2019 yang menunjukkan bahwa konstruksi tambahan akan memiliki permintaan yang rendah. Cluster perumahan; rumah yang dibangun dengan baik di cluster yang dikelola masih akan diminati, namun, saya akan mempertanyakan apakah mereka akan diminati dengan harga saat ini. Pemilik rumah di kawasan hunian (secara umum) kemungkinan besar akan menyadari bahwa nilai jual kembali dari investasi tersebut terus terkikis selama 3-4 tahun terakhir sementara proyek konstruksi baru terus berjalan. Dalam jangka pendek, pasokan akan tetap kuat pada saat kelayakan kredit konsumen menurun. Retracement pada 2008-9 sekitar 85% dan saat ini retracement hanya mencapai sekitar 70%. Histogram MACD menunjukkan tren menurun. Jika level 360Rp menahan peningkatan volume, itu akan menjadi tanda positif dan mungkin menunjukkan bahwa aksi jual telah mencapai puncaknya dan pembelian dapat dijamin. Untuk saat ini, saya hanya akan melihat grafik dan berita. Thanks for viewing. The ADHI chart is showing significant weakness. Almost all of the price gains over the previous 10 years have been erased. So sell, hold, or buy? Unfortunately, fibonacci does not assist as all of the normal retracement levels have been exceeded. There are just two levels to watch remaining; 360; the recent swing low and 120, the 2008 all time low. I expect the 360 level to be re-tested in the short-term due mainly to fundamental factors such as Indonesia entering a recession, steep job losses, and demand reduction in some key business sectors served by ADHI, especially hospitality, oil and gas, and residential clusters. Hospitality; hotels and restaurants are especially hard hit by the crisis in 2020 with business and leisure hotel occupancy plummeting. I wouldn't worry much about new construction in this sector as what is far more likely are reductions in capacity. Oil and gas; compared to as early as Jan or Feb 2020 oil and gas is a dramatically different industry. Huge portions of production have been take off-line. Exploration costs are being slashed. Timelines for electrification of vehicle manufacture have been brough forward and the global vehicle industry is moving away from diesel and gasoline engines. Presently, for other reasons, demand is significantly under 2019 levels which suggests that additional construction will be in low demand. Residential clusters; a well constructed house in a managed cluster will still be in demand, however, I would question if they will be in demand at current prices. Owners of houses in residential clusters (in general) will likely be aware that the resale value of the investment has been steadily eroding over the last 3-4 years while new construction projects continue to progress. In the short-term, supply will remain strong at a time when consumer credit-worthiness is impaired. The retracement in 2008-9 was around 85% and recently the retracement has only reached around 70%. The MACD histogram is showing a downward trend. If the 360Rp level holds on an increase in volume that would be a positive sign and may indicate that the sell-off has peaked and a buy may be warranted. For now, I will just watch the chart and the news.
IDX:ADHIShort
by flyinkiwi10