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Proprietarytrading

Dax daily: 19 Aug 2019 Friday's session was relatively difficult to trade. It looked like the price might go down a few times, but bulls were stronger and took the price towards our resistance at 11 606. In the end, the gap between the sessions wasn't closed and the trendline wasn't even relevant. For today, we open with yet another ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 899, 11 723 Support: 11 404, trend-line, 11 560 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis We estimate a short correction towards Friday's close at 11 560 where bulls are likely to take over and take the price to retest the 11 723. The main target for this week lays at 11 899. If Dax goes well below 11 560, we are likely to see a slow down of Price Action and closing inside Friday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 16 Aug 2019 Thursday's session turned as expected. Dax broke the previous day low, which had a statistical probability of 96%. Sellers were dominant right from the beginning and proved their strengths yet before 11 629 so the profit potential wasn't that exciting. Dax dropped some 300 points just to almost fully correct this drop later in the day. Thursday was a rollercoaster day and really hard to trade. Important zones Resistance: 11 606 Support: 11 404, trend-line Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, we'd like to see a drop towards yesterday's close and find some buyers there. Considering the Price Action, we see indications of yesterday's high. Yesterday's low looks pretty safe though. The upside correction could happen at 11 606.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 09 Aug 2019 The session yesterday started with an ascending gap which was closed yet in the morning trading hours. Sellers took Dax to retest the support level at 11 716 where we saw a power shift and buyers regained control of the further price development. The session was closed at 11 823. Important zones Resistance: 11 901 Support: 11 716 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Another gap opening but with a different situation today. It was quite probable yesterday that the gap was to be closed, just as we highlighted. Price opened above previous day's range and gap was at a strong S/R zone which was likely to be retested. Today we open in the middle of yesterday's session and it's not clearly defined who has the advantage. The statistical application indicates a 50% probability which is another undecisive information for a price estimate. We are left to wait for the price action and follow the mood of the market. We estimate today's trading ranging between 11 716 and 11 901.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 08 Aug 2019 Yesterday's session didn't offer any excitement exactly as we thought. What is important is that our resistance level at 11 702 functioned pretty well. Dax also broke neither low nor high of previous day range and this was corresponding with a very low statistical probability given by our application. Today we open with a significant ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 901 Support: 11 716 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Does it look like another calm session? It seems to be, yet it's important to bear in mind that markets are always unpredictable and anything can happen. We could see the initial move to the downside to retest yesterday's close and close the gap too. Buyers might appear around 11 716 and lift the price towards 11 901. Should Dax descend below 11 716, we might see a slow down of the price action and close inside yesterday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Two Fresh Supply Levels for Sell Position as a Continuation For the long terms, as we can see on the W1 chart on the left side of the chart, the USD/JPY tends to reach the demand at the bottom. On the H1 chart, we can see how the price creates 2 fresh supply levels above. Each one of the supply is a potential level for continuation sell trade. I'll sell at the supply above and the stop loss will be few pips above this level, If the price will break the supply and hit the stop loss order, it indicates the price on his way to reach the supply level 2. In that case, we can look for a price action setup for intraday buy position and the final target for this buy position will be the supply level 2 at the top. Supply level 2 is the next level where i'll try to sell again as a long term position, The target for this position will be 102.50 zones.
Short
by the5erstrading
2
Dax daily: 29 Jul 2019 Welcome to the first analysis of the 31st week. Friday's session turned out really nice. We found buyers at a good Thursday close support level and there was an intraday low formed there as well. Besides only one significant short candle at 2pm, Dax was drifting upwards for the whole intraday trading. The price then closed near its high. Important zones Resistance: 12 421, 12 479 Support: 12 354 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking Friday's high is 87% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, we have a high statistical probability of breaking Friday's high, which is also distanced relatively far away. Long trades then have a clear target. Contrary, should the Friday's low be broken, then the previous hypothesis becomes invalid. The chances of having both swings retested are as low as 7%. Taking advantage of shorting today's price, we can use a pullback around 12 421 and then 12 479.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 25 Jul 2019 Yesterday we had a clear bullish bias as the statistics suggested the retest of previous day high and the gap closure. Both of these statistics were successfully fulfilled and those who took advantage of this might have scored nice profits. The beginning of yesterday's session started with a slight downward move caused by French and German PMI reports, before the price reversed to the upside as expected. Important zones Resistance: 12 576, 12 645 Support: 12 437, 12 470 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 70% Macroeconomic releases 13:45 CEST - ECB Main Refinancing Rate 14:30 CEST - ECB Press conference Today's session hypothesis Today's open started with a small ascending gap sized 17 points. Once again, this one has a good statistical probability of being closed. We've had two uptrending days in a row and the momentum is weakening. The price is currently at 12 576, which is a resistance level. It will be interesting to see the initial move out of here. Should Dax head even higher, then the next resistance area of our focus is 12 645. On the other hand, if bulls stay calm, we anticipate the slow down in yesterday's range. However, needless to say it's a super Thursday for ECB. The interest rate is expected unchanged and Mario Draghi needs to address some measures with regards to economic stagnation.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
A Bullish Outside Bar Pattern Likely Change the Long Term MomentA Confluence of Bullish Outside Bar Candlestick Pattern and a Significant Support Zone GBP/USD has formed a bullish outside bar candlestick pattern in the H4 time frame. We can see in the H4 chart how the last big green candle in the picture attached engulfed the previous four candles and closed at the highest. If we look at the high time frames charts (W1 or D1), we can see that the price is bearish in the last one and a half years, since April 2018. At the moment, the price just arrived into the support zone which originally was a demand that formed in April 2017. The confluence of the bullish outside bar candlestick pattern and the significant support is a very powerful one. It creates a great opportunity for buy position. Below, there is a fresh demand created earlier today. If the price retraces this demand, it will be the right time to open a buy position for GBP/USD. The resistance above will be the first target for this position. The source of this resistance is a supply level which formed on 04/07/2019. After the price tested this supply three times it became a resistance zone. The final target for this trade will be the fresh supply at the top. The supply at the top is a very significant one, if the price will break this supply it means that the long term momentum has changed from bearish to bullish.
Long
by the5erstrading
Dax daily: 23 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session was fully dominated by bulls. They managed to grab the momentum taking Dax slightly above the resistance level of 12 330 that we highlighted yesterday. This zone functioned with a slight delay as the price corrected shortly after. The session was closed in black numbers priced 12 293. Important zones Resistance: 12 380 Support: 12 234, 12 200, 12 330 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The gap has 50 points and the statistical probability for closing is only 38% Macroeconomic releases London session - new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will be announced. This might affect mainly GBP, EUR and potentially DAX too. Today's session hypothesis This morning started with an ascending gap. Sized 50 points, this one has a low probability for being closed as the statistics suggest the 38% rate chance from the historical occurrence. We can speculate to see rather a bullish domination. In such a scenario, we'll await the retest of 12 380 which could also function as the buyers target zone and the reversal level for sellers.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Bearish Engulf Candlestick For USOIL in W1 Time FrameDespite The “Ships War” in Strait of Hormuz, USOIL Keep Falling Down In the W1 chart on USOIL, the last candlestick ended as a bearish engulfing candlestick which engulfed the three previous bullish candles. We can see how the big red candle on the picture closed below the low of the three previous bullish candles. That bearish Engulf Candlestick is a signal to look for a sell position on USOIL. In the H4 chart, we can see the fresh supply above at 56.60 zones. This fresh supply can be a great continuation level for a sell position. If the price retraces the fresh supply above we can sell there. The target for this sell position will be the demand below which also a great level for buy position. A few days ago, Iran seizes a British ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The situation between Iran and western countries is very explosive these days. If the relationship between Iran and western countries will keep roll down it can really lead to war. So, although the fresh supply above and the engulfing bearish candlestick, we should be really careful while selling USOIL. If the relationship will roll down between Iran and western countries, the USOIL price might fly up and all this technical analysis will become irrelevant.
FX:USOIL
by the5erstrading
Will GBP/USD Breakout the Support? Or, it Will Rise Up From TherA Confluence of MACD Divergence in W1 Chart and Fresh Demand in H1 Chart If we look at the W1 chart of GBP/USD, we can see the price just arrived into support zone. The source of this support is a demand level from April 2017. In December 2018 the price tested this demand twice, and now, it's the third time the price reaches there. A demand level that tested a few times becomes a support zone. Still in the W1 chart, we can see a significant divergence between the MACD indicator and the price lows. While the price creates a lower low in the W1 chart the MACD creates a higher low. In the H1 chart, the price created a fresh demand two days ago which is a great demand for buy position. The target for this buy position is 1.2680. If the price will breakout the demand there is a high probability it will break also the support on the W1 chart. In that case, the price most likely will tend to reach the support at the bottom (support 2 at the picture). This situation can create an opportunity for a sell position and we should look for a price action setup for sell position. The confluence of MACD divergence on W1 chart and a fresh demand on the H1 chart, convince me that the price had a great chance to rise up from the demand. But, it always better to be ready for another scenario. This analysis is relevant for long term forex traders.
by the5erstrading
Expectations for an Interest-rate Cut Push SPX500 to New High ReAfter SPX500 Reach New High Record, What are The Signals For Reversal Opportunity? last week ended with new high records for the US indexes. The main reason for the stock market to keep rising up is the high expectations for an interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve. these expectations came after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Congress. Usually, when the price is in a new high record it’s the time to look for a reversal signal. If we look in H1 chart on the SPX500, we can see a significant divergence between the price and the CCI indicator. The CCI divergence indicates that the uptrend becomes powerless. Combining two signals together is always a safer way to trade, so in addition to the CCI divergence, we should wait to see if the price will breakout the support below. If that happens, we can start looking for price action setup of a sell position. If this prediction will come true, the target for this sell position will be the demand at the bottom.
TVC:SPXShort
by the5erstrading
EUR/AUD: Does The Long Term Momentum is About to ChangeA Confluence Between Head & Shoulders and CCI Divergence If we look at the long term charts (D1 or W1) we will see the EUR/AUD is in bullish momentum. The recent technical correction which starts about three weeks ago created a Head and Shoulders pattern. Head and Shoulders pattern that came after a long trend usually indicates a reversal opportunity. At the moment, the price supporting by support zone which is also the Head and Shoulders’ neckline. In the D1 chart, we can also see a significant between the price and the CCI indicator which indicates a weakness at the end of the recent uptrend. Also, we can see that the right side of the pattern, which are the sellers, is more powerful, the red Candles are bigger and seems more aggressive. For now, we should wait and see if the price will breakout the support which is the neckline. If that happened, the next step is to look for a price action setup for a sell position. The first target will be the support 2, and the final target will be the demand at the bottom.
Short
by the5erstrading
1
Dax daily: 10 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session turned out to follow our hypothesis only partially. Dax started its decline towards 12 391, but buyers didn't use this level to enter the market. Following was a descend towards the second support zone in a row, laying at 12 326, yet this price wasn't reached and Dax reversed upwards. In the end, Dax closed approximately in the middle of its range. The support level of 12 391 functioned properly after a pullback at 2:30pm. Important zones Resistance: 12 500 Support: 12 326 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases USA - 20:00 CEST - FOMC Meeting Minutes Today's session hypothesis Today we have a very high statistical probability for closing the gap. We could also expect the resistance at 12 500 being retested and attracting sellers. Yesterday's high breakout has a probability of 64% . Another nice zone nearby is the support level at 12 326 where we might see a bullish correction. Also, we have a higher probability of 77% for closing inside yesterday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
The Reason Why it’s Safer to Trade against CompressionToo Risky to Sell EUR/CAD with this Supply Above? At any time frame, the EUR/CAD seems to be in bearish momentum. In the H1 chart, the price is in a downtrend of almost 300 pips. While yesterday a fresh supply was created by the price above. Most of this downtrend was a compression which meant that the price compressed down while picking up all the sell orders along the way. Compression indicates a powerless movement in the price. In other words, it seems the last downtrend of the price was powerless and it’s safer to look for a reversal signal and trade against the compression. Usually, a supply level is a great level for a sell position, but this supply is created after the price had already decreased about 250 pips and divergence has occurred between the MACD indicator and the price. So, instead, I will use this supply as a confirmation zone and not as a level of sell position to sell this supply as is too risky now. If the price will break out the supply, it will be a signal for reversal opportunity and we should look for a price action setup for a buy position. Breaking out the supply above will change the momentum in the H1 chart from bearish to bullish.
Long
by the5erstrading
1
Oil Continues Down Although Large Crude Oil Inventory FoundA significant Divergence Between MACD and Price Highs. Yesterday, the OPEC succeeded to extend their agreement to cut production until 2020. Also, The American Petroleum Institute (API) declared that they had found another large inventory of crude oil. Despite this good news USOIL price continues down. In the H1 chart, there is a final drop from yesterday, which has now changed the bullish momentum to bearish. The change happened after a significant divergence between the MACD indicator and the price highs, while the price created a higher high the MACD created lower high. This change indicates that the downtrend has probably just begun and that we should look for an opportunity to sell USOIL. It seems the price tends to reach 52.00 zones. For now, the correct level to sell USOIL is at the supply above and then the target should be at 52.00 zones which is the demand below. This demand is also a great level to buy USOIL as a long term position. If the price breakout the demand and continues down, it indicates that the long term momentum has also changed to bearish.
FX:USOILShort
by the5erstrading
3
Finally, The USA and China Meeting ends with Good News for spx“Things look very good” – Tweets Trump after his Meeting with Xi Jinping The good news today is that the trade war between the USA and China has calmed down. The meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping was finally successful. They both agree to resume trade talks as before. This trade war, between the two giant economic powers, has been on-going for more than a year. This is a great relief for the stock market. This success may cause a rally, meaning it is now a good time to look for a buy position on the SPX500 Index. There are three scenarios that may happen and should create the opportunity for buy position. The three scenarios are: 1. Buy at demand level 1, as long as the price did not break out the resistance above. 2. In the case of the price breaking out at demand level 1 – I will close the buy position and wait to buy again at demand level 2. Breaking out of the resistance will make the two scenarios above irrelevant. 3. In the case of breaking out the resistance, we should look for a new setup for a buy position, something like a fresh demand with a confluence for a Fibonacci retracement. If any of these three scenarios evolve, then the target for all these scenarios should be 3000 zones.
TVC:SPXLong
by the5erstrading
Dax daily: 03 Jul 2019 Yet another session without a gap. Sellers attempted to retest prices from the last week, yet to no avail. It was just around 12 475 when Dax turned around from its slight downward correction and eventually closed where it opened the daily session. Important zones Resistance: 12 600 Support: 12 391, 12 428 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 83% Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs Today's session hypothesis We'll base our today's analysis on the fact we have a higher statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high. Thanks to yesterday's close, the odds incline the price might go higher, beyond yesterday's high. Our statistical application indicates that such situation happened in 83% of historical occurrences. This is a strong indication that plays for bull traders. Should this scenario happen, we estimate that 12 600 could be targeted as well. If not, the price decline towards 12 475 or even lower towards 12 428 is likely in a reverse situation.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
2
Dax daily: 02 Jul 2019 The resistance zone at 12 601 we mentioned yesterday turned out to function perfectly. After retesting the 12 601 level, Dax went sloping down. The weekend gap has been filled from it's third only and today the price opens without a gap. Important zones Resistance: NIL Support: 12 385, 12 428, 12 508 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis There are quite a few support zones today, yet no resistance. The magnet on the lower prices is still 12 385. On the way down, buyers could enter around 12 428 and 12 385. The support zone at 12 508 could function as a bumper to head for further higher levels. At 12 428, we might see a correction, whereas the 12 385 level might function as a reversal signal. Thanks to a good distance towards 12 385, this hypothesis can be a multiple-day plan.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 01 Jul 2019 Friday's session happened to be a very positive one for bull traders. As expected, Dax reached the 12 344 level, however, this didn't function as resistance at all. Buyers were strong enough to touch 12 397 and the session was closed near this level. Closing the week on a weekly high is certainly a good signal for buyers. Important zones Resistance: 12 601 Support: 12 391 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis This new week and month have started quite unusually for Dax. We hardly see an ascending gap sized 174 points. The statistical application also doesn't count with such extreme value, hence not giving any historical reading. Considering the gap of such size (probably caused by the G20 outcomes), it is normally very common that we see a directional continuation hence it is likely that today's session might see even higher levels. On Mondays, however, the moves are not so prudent with volatility being slower than usual.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
2
Three Reasons to Believe GBP/USD Remains BearishGBP/USD Price is Established Below The Annual Open Price A few weeks ago, the GBP/USD price fell below the annual opening price, which became a significant resistance zone. Since the after three unsuccessful attempts to breakout this resistance. The price reattempted to break the resistance against two days ago (25th June 2019). This time the daily candle ended as a bearish outside bar candlestick pattern, by engulfing the candle of the day before. This candlestick pattern is the first signal to look for a sell position. In the 1H chart, there are two more signals to look for a sell position on GBP/USD. The substantial divergence between the price and the MACD indicator – while the price creates higher highs on its way to reaching the resistance, the MACD creates lower highs. When the price hit the resistance, then dropped down and created the outside bar pattern, it also creates a fresh supply, which is the right level to open a sell position if the price retraces there. The three reasons that we think the GBP/USD remains bearish is because of the confluence of – bearish outside bar pattern, fresh supply, and the MACD divergence which create a reliable and strong setup for the sell position. In the 1W and 1D charts, it seems that the price will remain bearish until it reaches the 1.2150 zone, which is a support zone. Therefore, this support zone will be the target of this sell position. This analysis is relevant for swing forex traders.
Short
by the5erstrading
Dax daily: 27 Jun 2019Yesterday, we've had a higher probability of 83% for breaking the previous day low. Although the odds were in our favour, the breakout of Tuesday's low didn't happen. Instead, Dax shot straight up and we've only found some sellers at the mentioned resistance zone of 12 282. Today, the price opens with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 44 Support: 12 229, 12 191 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability for closing inside yesterday's range is 87% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, our chances are pretty balanced from the Price Action perspective. One thesis suggests finding buyers and head to a resistance level of 12 344, where the shift of powers could happen and the price to return to yesterday's range. On the other hand, we have a pretty similar scenario where sellers could push the price lower to reach the support level of 12 229, where the price is likely to bounce from that zone and retest the 12 344. Should the price reach all the way towards 12 191 and the market participants losing momentum, it is likely Dax would rather slow down.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO