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Proprietarytrading

Dax daily: 26 Jun 2019 We welcome all to a mid-week analysis. The support level at 12 191 we mentioned yesterday functioned perfectly as this was retested right after the open. Contrary, the resistance zone of 12 230 didn't have much significance. Dax found some bearish pressures at a higher price of 12 266 and following was a downside move to a very near intra-day low. Important zones Resistance: 12 282 Support: 12 120, 12 049 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability for breaking yesterday's low is 83% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, our major key for establishing the price projection is the high statistical probability for the breakout of yesterday's low. Hence all sell positions have a clearly defined target. Another target to keep an eye on is the support level around 12 120 where we hope to find some buyers.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 25 Jun 2019 Yesterday's session met our expectations. We've had a very high probability for breaking Friday's low, which eventually happened. Dax was steadily in a slight downtrend for the whole session and the price closed near the support level of 12 219. Today, Dax opened below this zone with a descending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 230 Support: 12 191, 12 120 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today we expect the entrance of buyers right at 12 191, which is now being retested. We target closing the gap too. If there are no buyers at 12 191, the momentum could escalate towards 12 120. Should the market participants stay within yesterday's range, the price action is likely to slow down or oscillate within that range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 24 Jun 2019 Welcome to a new trading week. Friday's session turned out as expected, but unfortunately, our zones didn't get a chance to play a role. The resistance at 12 337 and 12 373 didn't attract any sellers. They entered a bit higher at 12 409 and continued to dominate intra-day price action. Dax then closed just short of the support level laying at 12 219. Today, we open with a strong ascending candle and with a long gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 350 Support: 12 219, 12 191 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking Friday's low stands at 96% Macroeconomic releases 10:00 CEST - German Ifo Business Climate Today's session hypothesis Today we have a very high probability for breaking Friday's low. For this reason, every short signal has a clear target. If and once that happens, we could find some buyers at 12 219 or 12 191. Even though we have such a high probability for a certain market occurrence, don't forget to always manage your risk and don't bet too much on one card.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
New High Record For The Last Three Years In XAU/USDConfluence of Fibonacci 38.2% and Demand Level on XAU/USD Three years ago, the XAU/USD price was sitting at 1375.00 zones and dropped to 1120.00 zones. During the last three years, the price retraced to the 1375.00 zones, three times. But it didn’t succeed to break this resistance. Yesterday, the price reached that resistance again, but this time it broke out the resistance and created a new high record in these past three years. For now, in the long term, it seems that the XAU/USD price tends to reach 1550.00 zones. It is the next significant supply at the price. In the 4H chart, we can see the demand below where the price bounced from that demand and broke out the resistance above, which indicated a powerful demand. This demand also confluence with the Fibonacci 38.2% of the last uptrend. This confluence between the demand and the Fibonacci 38.2% creates an excellent opportunity for buy position. If the price retraces the demand below, it will be the right time to open buy position. The target for this long term position will be 1550.00 zones.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by the5erstrading
Serious Confluence Indicates – GBP/JPY going fo CorrectionQuasimodo Level after MACD Divergence and Pinbar Pattern in GBP/JPY Today, this GBP/JPY pair is in a downtrend of almost 1000 pips and is still considered bearish. Yesterday’s 1D chart, the candle has ended as a Pinbar pattern. The Pinbar candlestick pattern is a reversal pattern and is a very reliable pattern to use amongst forex traders. In this 1D chart, there is a bullish Pinbar which shows us the first signal for a reversal opportunity. There is also a MACD Divergence price formation. If the price creates a lower low, then the MACD creates a higher low. This indicates that the downtrend is decreasing its strength, and now gives us the second signal for reversal opportunity. This is at least for the short term. In the 1H chart, below, there is a third signal, which is a new demand, and it is a Quasimodo level which is considered to be a very powerful level. The confluence of these three signals, the Pinbar pattern, MACD divergence, and the Quasimodo level, all create a reliable opportunity for a reversal position. The right level to open buy position is the demand below, which is the Quasimodo level, and of course only, if the price retraces to that level. The first target for this position is number 1, the supply above. The final target will be number 2, the supply at the top.
Long
by the5erstrading
NZD/USD: Second Attempt To Break Demand LevelCombination Of Fibonacci 38.2% And Fresh Supply. We can see that on the 4H, 1D, 1W and even 1M charts that, in the long term, the NZD/USD pair is in bearish momentum. At the moment, we can also see on the 4H chart that the price has just arrived at the demand level that was created about a month ago. Two and a half weeks ago and for the first time, the price checked for this demand and picked up some unfilled buy orders from there. Then it moved up about 170 pips and dropped back down to the demand level. But now, the price is digging deeper into that demand and we can see by the big red candles that the price has returned with more power than the first time. This indicates a high probability of breaking out the demand this time. Fibonacci levels are significant in trading the forex market and a combination of supply level with Fibonacci 38.2% is a great setup for the sell position. Usually, the combination of supply and Fibonacci 38.2% is a very reliable setup. If the price is able to retrace to this level, it will be a great opportunity for a sell position at the first touch. The first target will be at 0.6500 zones and the final target is at 0.6300 which is a support zone that we can see on a 1W chart.
Short
by the5erstrading
Dax daily: 18 Jun 2019Monday’s session has seen no success, mainly due to the fact Dax hasn’t moved anywhere and the price was just ranging in a narrow band of 70 points. We haven’t even seen the retest of Friday’s high or low. Today, Dax opens with a small gap which is already closed. Important zones Resistance: 12 148 Support: 11 987 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 11:00 CEST – German ZEW Economic Sentiment Today’s session hypothesis Due to the fact the price hasn’t gone anywhere yesterday, our hypothesis will remain intact. Just as yesterday, the gap has already been closed so we’re short of one daily target. If we find bearish momentum, the price could head lower to retest the weaker support at 11 987. Talking about higher levels, there is one weaker resistance level at 12 148, however, if the price gets all the way there, it is likely Dax will retest the Friday’s high and the zone of 12 200.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Three Reasons Why There is High Probability For Sell Position InMACD Divergence With A New Supply For Sell Position On XAU/USD. There are a few reasons to look for a sell position in XAU/USD: 1. In the wide picture – 1W chart, the price has just arrived into a strong resistance zone. The last time that this happened was about a year and a half ago but back then, it continued to drop to 1160.00 zones. 2. In the 4H chart, there is a remarkable divergence between the MACD indicator and the price. While the price creates a higher high, the MACD creates a lower high and that divergence indicates that the recent uptrend is now powerless. 3. In the 1H chart, there is a new supply above. The last demand of the recent uptrend has broken out by this supply. This indicates that the supply is a strong one and is also on the right level to open a sell position, only if the price retraces there. The demand below will be the final destination for this sell position.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by the5erstrading
Only A Retracement? or is The BTC/USD Moving back to Bearish?This Evening Doji Star is a reversal candlestick pattern, The uptrend continues with a large green body. The next candle opens higher, trades in a small range and then closes at its opening (Doji). The last candle closes below the midpoint of the body of the first candle. We can see this pattern now on the 1W chart, although in the long term the price returns to being bullish after the last three-month rally, It seems that the price is about to have a technical correction before continuing on the bullish momentum. the Evening Doji Star is the signal for a retracement possibility. On the 1D chart, we have another confirmation which is the fresh supply above and that supply is where we should sell BTC/USD. Meanwhile, the price compressed upwards toward the supply above and it indicates that this upward movement is powerless. This is exactly what we prefer before selling. There are two demands below – the one at the bottom is the source of the last three-month rally and it will be the final destination. If the price reaches that demand at the bottom (number 2 on the picture), we can buy there in order to continue the long term bullish momentum. The demand below (number 1 on the picture) will be the correct level to close part of the position.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by the5erstrading
Dax daily: 14 Jun 2019 Thursday’s session has been considerably more active compared to the previous day. Dax first headed straight up without stopping at our first resistance zone. The second level of resistance laying at 12 194 functioned perfectly and the price even formed an intra-day high there. Following was a bounce back to our first level, now being a support zone where we found some buyers taking the price slightly up again. Today we open with the gap being already closed. Important zones Resistance: 12 264 Support: 12 121, 12 054 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today, we hope to descend towards 12 121 just to get buyers to take the price higher. In case Dax gets below 12 121, it is more likely the price will slow down in the consolidation area from Wednesday. If bulls are strong, then the first target is the swing high from 11 Jun, followed by a retest of the resistance level at 12 264.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
1
Dax daily: 13 Jun 2019 Yesterday’s session can be characterized as a very lazy one. Dax first took a slight climb towards our resistance at 12 117 where we found some sellers. Following was a 55 points move down. That’s about it, nothing more interesting from the price action perspective as the price was ranging lazily for the rest of the session duration. The overall intra-day range was below the average 70 points. Today’s gap has already been closed. Important zones Resistance: 12 144, 12 194 Support: 12 012 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Due to the fact the price hasn’t moved anywhere yesterday, our zones remain unchanged. If the price reaches 12 144, we expect to see some bearish push towards 12 012. Considering the fact there are no relevant news scheduled for the day, the session might turn out similarly to that of yesterday.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 12 Jun 2019 Our analysis yesterday met our expectations. Dax did not close the gap and went right up towards the 12 207 level where we saw some sellers taking over. There was even an intra-day high formed at 12 207. Following was a descend almost to the open level and today we open with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 144, 12 194, 12 117 Support: 12 012 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today we can expect a move upwards to close the gap, which doesn’t have the highest statistical probability and therefore we hope to find sellers as soon as around 12 117. If Dax goes above 12 144, then the breakout of yesterday’s high has a very small probability of just 7%. In case sellers dominate the market, we could potentially find buyers around a nice support level of 12 012.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
How Far could this Technical Correction move, before The Long TeThe last USOIL weekly candle formed a bullish pin bar pattern following a closure. The Pin Bar candlestick pattern is one of the most reliable and powerful candlesticks patterns for technical Forex analysis. If this pattern is found near a support or resistance key level, it is then a reliable indication for a reversal pattern. Although the last week candle ended as a bullish pin bar candlestick pattern, zooming out for the bigger picture. it is clear that the long term momentum in USOIL price remains bearish. It seems that for the long term, any upward movement of the price will be considered as a technical correction, regardless of the price continuing a bearish momentum. First, it will move upward to collect unfiled orders from the supply above, which we can see on the 4H chart, and maybe even from the supply at the top. On the 4H timeframe – A fresh demand zone located just below 52ish, if the price touches this demand before reaching the supply above, it will be great timing to open for a buy position. The supplies above will be the first target and the one at the top is the final target.
FX:USOILLong
by the5erstrading
1
Does The Long Term Bullish Momentum Has Ended?Last week’s candle on USD/CAD has ended with an engulfing candlestick pattern. This weekly candlestick is red from the beginning to the end. After the price compressed vertically and took all the buyer’s orders on the way up. It dropped back to the origin of the compression. This drop created last week’s candlestick which engulfed the previous 12 candlesticks. However, the price still does not break the uptrend support line on the weekly chart. Still, we are unable to say that the momentum has changed. If the price does break the uptrend support line, then we can say that the long term momentum has changed from bullish to bearish. In this case, I’ll wait for the price to retrace the supply above and sell there. If the price does not break the uptrend support line, then the supply above will be too risky for sell position since the momentum remains bullish.
by the5erstrading
Dax daily: 11 Jun 2019 Yesterday, we expected a retest of 12 139 and the drop towards the trend line. Dax did not reach all the way towards the resistance zone, but the return to 12 046 level worked well. The market met both of our indications – the support zone of 12 046 and the trend line. Bulls were not strong enough in the afternoon session and the price closed slightly negative at 12 084. Important zones Resistance: 12 139 Support: 12 046 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability to close the gap is only 38% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis The price opened with an ascending gap sized 50 points, right at the mentioned resistance level. The statistical probabilities incline the gap closure is unlikely for today’s session and this indicates a bullish bias. Should the uptrend be formed and confirmed, we estimate the price is to reach 12 207 level.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 10 Jun 2019 Welcome everybody to a new trading week. Friday’s session started according to our expectation by closing the gap and the price went slowly up. At 2:30 pm we’ve had the US Non-Farm Payrolls release which caused a couple of volatile candles. Later in the afternoon session, Dax significantly slowed down as participants closed the week with the NFP moves. Today, the price opens with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 139 Support: 12 046, trend line Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today, we could retest the resistance at 12 139 where we hope to find some sellers correcting the price back to retest the 12 046 level. If the resistance at 12 139 isn’t strong enough and buyers prove their bullish momentum, it is likely to retest the price zone of 12 207. If sellers don’t find enough reasons to be aggressive right from the 12 046 level, their appearance might be felt somewhere around the nice trend line.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
A Bearish Outside Bar Candlestick In 1D Chart On EURUSDOn the 1D chart, the previous day’s candle has ended as an outside bar candlestick pattern, which is a reversal pattern. We can see how this candle was engulfed the day before. The height of the outside bar was higher than the height of the previous day. and the low of the outside Bar was lower than the previous day’s low. Since it’s a bearish outside bar, we should look for a sell position. In the 15M chart, there is a great supply above which is also the top of the outside bar candlestick. If the price retraces toward the supply – it will be a great opportunity for sell position. The first target for this position will be the support below at 1.1130 zones, and the final target will be at 1.0750 zones.
by the5erstrading
2
Dax daily: 06 Jun 2019 Yesterday’s session started without a gap and after a short correction, buyers really headed upwards to higher levels. Unfortunately, the momentum wasn’t strong enough to reach our target at 12 064. The session was then closed near it’s open at 11 986. Important zones Resistance: 12 064 Support: 11 861 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 13:45 CEST – EUR – Main Refinancing Rate & Monetary Policy Statement 14:30 CEST – ECB Press Conference Today’s session hypothesis Today’s session opened with a gap sized 34 points. This size of the gap has approximately 50 – 65% probability for closing, so no strong edge here, yet such a scenario would be nice for this morning. For today, we expect a weaker activity up till the ECB rate decision and the Monetary Policy Statement. The more important though will be Draghi’s presser later on at 2.30pm CEST. The ECB’s bias could influence the rest of today’s price action. On the long side, we still target the 12 064 level. On the short side, our focus is on the support level of 11 861.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
1
Dax daily: 05 Jun 2019 Yesterday’s session is a nice confirmation of a clear support level laying at 11 620. After the price broke out of the 11 778 level, Dax shot up to hit 11 860. The momentum was strong enough and that level didn’t slow the price at all. Bulls went even higher to close at the intra-day high at 11 985, which is btw one of the resistance levels we previously highlighted. Important zones Resistance: 12 064, 11 986 Support: 11 861, 11 778 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:15 – 10:00 CEST – Eurozone PMIs Today’s session hypothesis The price opened the day without a gap. It is very likely we see some initial correction of yesterday’s bullish momentum, followed by another upside move. If we go long, we shall target the resistance level of 12 064. This price was important in the past and this confirms the occurrence count there. If bulls are not that strong today, we estimate a sideways price action, along with the 11 860 level functioning as our support zone.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Indication that The Recent Downtrend In The M30 Chart has EndedTrend Analysis For GBP/USD, Monday 03/06/2019 As we can see in the M30 chart, the GBP/USD has just developed a bullish momentum. In the higher time frame, the price is still bearish. Below us, there is a new fresh demand level which is also a Quasimodo level. A Quasimodo pattern is a situation where the price changing momentum with one strong movement. As we can see in the M30 chart, after the recent downtrend where the price creates a few lower highs, it now creates a new higher high with one movement. That situation creates the Quasimodo pattern and it indicates the momentum changed from bearish to bullish. Usually, this pattern creates an opportunity with a great risk-reward ratio. The demand below is a great level for buy position and the target will be the supply above.
Long
by the5erstrading
2
Dax daily: 04 Jun 2019 There was no resistance formed at Friday’s close. On the other hand, the support level laying at 11 620 that we spoke about in previous analysis functioned as expected. We found a new low here and the control was taken back by buyers who took the price towards the resistance at 11 788. This price zone was also mentioned in our yesterday’s analysis and it turned out Dax respected that very nicely too. The price bounced back from there and the session ended at 11 740. Important zones Resistance: 11 788 Support: 11 620 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today’s session got open pretty much without a gap. The price hovers just below the important resistance level at 11 788 and it appears this could be retested again. Should the price go above that, the next target will be 11 860. If the price does not break 11 788, we anticipate the action below this level in the range of 11 620 – 11 788 without any significant volatility.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 03 Jun 2019 The last session of May closed in red numbers when the price continued its drop in the descending gap direction, just as we anticipated. Those last few bearish days erased all the gains from the past two months and we are now in the territory where the price was at the beginning of April this year. This confirms the known theory that bulls walk up the stairs, while bears jump out the window. Important zones Resistance: 11 788 Support: 11 620 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap today is only 30% Macroeconomic releases 09:15 – 10:00 CEST – Eurozone PMIs Today’s session hypothesis The first trading day of June started optimistic on Dax. Bulls are in a lead it appears they might have enough power to close the weekend gap. This one is sized 70 points and doesn’t close often. It is likely there is a weaker resistance level on Friday’s close, which could be a bounce point for further sells. Should the price descend below 11 620, it is likely we see further selling pressure.
XETR:DAX
by FTMO
Dax daily: 30 May 2019 Bearish momentum continued yet for another day in a row. After the open, Dax took a south direction and the price reached the support level of 11 861 without any problem. This level was retested a couple of times before the price eventually closed there. Yesterday’s price action took us to the low formed on 01 April. Important zones Resistance: 11 986, 12 063 Support: 11 861, 11 827 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 69% The statistical probability of breaking yesterday’s low is 96% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Although the trading is limited today in many countries due to the public holiday and Eurex is partially closed, Dax market is open as normal. For today, we have quite some interesting leads given by the Statistical application. The most important is the probability of 96% to break yesterday’s low and this could signify further downfalls. When we look at the chart from a longer time perspective, there is a lot of room for sellers after breaking the 11 861 barrier. As of now, this level functions well and holding the price. Let’s keep a sharp eye on how this situation evolves.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO