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EURUSD - what to expect next week (24-28 Aug)After a month of sideways price action, it is amost time for EURUSD to pick a direction. Indeed, as we can see, the price will face a compression soon as the ascending trendline and the channel midline are about to meet. This attention area is indicated by the orange triangle. The direction of the breakout will most likely indicate which side of the channel be broken also. This compression will lead the breakout to reach the respective target box.
by FTMO
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Dax daily: 29 Aug 2019 Yesterday's session drew a nice 'V' shape. The price started to fall towards the support level of 11 561 right from the beginning of the session and this was the area where price marked its intraday low and bounced back upwards. The first support zone laying at 11 678 had little effect. The statistical probability about closing inside the previous day range was also fulfilled. Important zones Resistance: 11 772 Support: 11 608, trendline Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 08:45 - 09:55 CEST - various Eurozone reports - refer to the Economic calendar Today's session hypothesis For today's price estimation, we need to monitor the Price Action around the slightly consolidated area formed around yesterday's close. If Dax goes above this zone, it is likely we see a retest of 11 772 and the return back to the range zone of the past few days. Contrary, should bears prove their presence, we can see the retest of our support level and the trendline around 11 600 which could serve as an interesting area for some bullish correction.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
1
Dax daily: 28 Aug 2019 Yesterday's high was broken out as yesterday's statistics hinted. There was no apparent resistance up till the 11 774 level which eventually stopped the bulls. The 11 678 zone functioned as a support level and the session was closed outside of the previous day range and this fulfilled the same statistical probability as well. Important zones Resistance: 11 774 Support: 11 678 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing inside of yesterday's session is 87% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today we opened with a small gap which is already closed at the time of writing. The statistics suggest the price shouldn't get out of yesterday's range. The high from yesterday at 11 774 now serves as our resistance level. We are seeing a support level at 11 678. This zone is likely to be retested and we need to monitor the price action there. In case this support holds the price, we would like to see the breakout of the 11 774 resistance zone.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 22 Aug 2019 Unfortunately, yesterday's session didn't go according to our expectations. We've had clues for a bearish move and breakout of the previous day low, but Dax proved otherwise. The price was trending upwards with a strong momentum right from the beginning of the session and the resistance at 11 691 played no role too. Dax slowed down later in the afternoon, yet closed in the upper band of its range. Today we open with a descending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 779 Support: 11 667, trend line zone Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs 13:30 CEST - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts Today's session hypothesis Currently, the price descends towards the support level of 11 729 and we hope to find buyers there and head towards the closure of the gap. Up at the resistance zone of 11 779 there might be some bearish correction but eventually, bulls are likely to prevail to retest yesterday's high. If that happens, sellers are likely to return back to the range to close inside - this thesis has a statistical probability of 77%.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 21 Aug 2019 Tuesday's session was a bit odd from our point of view. Dax initially descended to our support at 11 646, but rather than bullish correction we hoped for, price action rather slowed down. Dax then closed near it's intraday low and today we open with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 691 Support: 11 560 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's low is 96% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Considering the very high probability for breaking yesterday's low, then all our short trades have a clear target. If yesterday's low gets broken, we can estimate a faster move towards 11 560 which is a really nice support level. Sellers are likely to step in around 11 691. Should Dax break yesterday's high, then the short hypothesis becomes invalid as the statistics suggest the breakout of both swings is as low as 7% only.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 20 Aug 2019 Monday's session turned out as per our expectations. Although there was no short to capitalize on, one of our hypothesis was the significance of trend-line to support bullish traders. The resistance at 11 723 slowed down the price incline but no big short correction was seen. Today we open with a small ascending gap, which has a 60% probability of closing. Important zones Resistance: 11 899, 11 723 Support: 11 646 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing outside of yesterday's range is 71% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, we again expect the initial drop towards 11 646 where we hope to find buyers and finally start heading towards 11 899. If Dax goes below yesterday's low, it is likely we see a faster continuation towards 11 560 which might be another attractive zone for bull traders. If bullish momentum prevails right from the beginning of the session, then the first logical target is the high swing at 11 829 and then 11 899.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 19 Aug 2019 Friday's session was relatively difficult to trade. It looked like the price might go down a few times, but bulls were stronger and took the price towards our resistance at 11 606. In the end, the gap between the sessions wasn't closed and the trendline wasn't even relevant. For today, we open with yet another ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 899, 11 723 Support: 11 404, trend-line, 11 560 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis We estimate a short correction towards Friday's close at 11 560 where bulls are likely to take over and take the price to retest the 11 723. The main target for this week lays at 11 899. If Dax goes well below 11 560, we are likely to see a slow down of Price Action and closing inside Friday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 16 Aug 2019 Thursday's session turned as expected. Dax broke the previous day low, which had a statistical probability of 96%. Sellers were dominant right from the beginning and proved their strengths yet before 11 629 so the profit potential wasn't that exciting. Dax dropped some 300 points just to almost fully correct this drop later in the day. Thursday was a rollercoaster day and really hard to trade. Important zones Resistance: 11 606 Support: 11 404, trend-line Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, we'd like to see a drop towards yesterday's close and find some buyers there. Considering the Price Action, we see indications of yesterday's high. Yesterday's low looks pretty safe though. The upside correction could happen at 11 606.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 15 Aug 2019 Our market analysis didn't go well yesterday. We've had clues for the uptrend continuation and breaking of Tuesday's high. Instead of that, Dax gave us the complete opposite and formed a big daily sell-off. Today we open with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 899, 11 629 Support: NIL Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability for breaking yesterday's low is 96% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis We anticipate the bullish correction until yesterday's mid-range. The resistance level of 11 629 or even lower could be a good zone for sellers to target yesterday's low, which has a really high statistical probability. Even though we have such a powerful hint for today's price direction, it is important to remember that markets might always behave erratically and the statistic might not be fulfilled.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 14 Aug 2019 Dax started the day with the expected drop and breaking the previous day low, which had a statistical probability of 83%. There was a sudden price spike after 15:30 when Dax shot higher some 300 points based on Trump's tweets. After the dust settled, Dax slowed down and hasn't really gone anywhere for the rest of the session. Today's gap has already been closed. Important zones Resistance: 11 899, 12 031 Support: 11 660 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Wednesday's session could start with the correction of yesterday's move. Buyers are likely to enter around the support level of 11 660 and attempt to take the price higher towards 11 899 and close this gap finally. We also have 87% statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high or low, but considering the fact that low is distanced some 230 points and the normal daily range is 110 - 160 points, it makes sense to anticipate a breakout of yesterday's high.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 13 Aug 2019 Monday's session brought the initial short which broke our trend line. After breaking yesterday's low, buyers stepped in to retest the trendline just to allow bears to take it lower again. The price was then closed near its intraday low. Important zones Resistance: 11 899, 12 031 Support: NIL Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's low is 83% Macroeconomic releases 11:00 CEST - German ZEW Economic Sentiment Today's session hypothesis Today we expect a breakout of yesterday's low which has a good chance as per the statistics. Our short trades then have a clear target. We can find sellers around the trend line from yesterday. Considering the low at 11 538 has been retested thrice already, it is now likely to see a breakout with a further downside continuation. In case buyers take control after the low breakout, it is more probable the price will oscillate inside yesterday's session.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 09 Aug 2019 The session yesterday started with an ascending gap which was closed yet in the morning trading hours. Sellers took Dax to retest the support level at 11 716 where we saw a power shift and buyers regained control of the further price development. The session was closed at 11 823. Important zones Resistance: 11 901 Support: 11 716 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Another gap opening but with a different situation today. It was quite probable yesterday that the gap was to be closed, just as we highlighted. Price opened above previous day's range and gap was at a strong S/R zone which was likely to be retested. Today we open in the middle of yesterday's session and it's not clearly defined who has the advantage. The statistical application indicates a 50% probability which is another undecisive information for a price estimate. We are left to wait for the price action and follow the mood of the market. We estimate today's trading ranging between 11 716 and 11 901.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 07 Aug 2019 Yesterday's session was a bit odd. Dax behaved lazily all day long and has broken neither low or high of the previous day. The support level at 11 615 hasn't functioned either. The price opened with a small descending gap today which is already closed by the time we write this. Important zones Resistance: 11 702, 11 845, 11 899, 12 031 Support: NIL Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax has slowed down significantly after a big drop from 25 July. In the ideal scenario, we could see a correction towards 12 031 in the upcoming days with smaller corrections at the mentioned resistance levels. For today, we don't have any drivers or significant clues for the market direction estimation. There is a near resistance at 11 702 which could trigger some action of sellers. Besides, we can expect a lazier price action once again.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 06 Aug 2019 Monday's session had an expected development. We first saw buyers taking the price slightly up, yet not able to retest the 11 823 level. Sellers took over and pushed Dax to the support zone of 11 657. It took some time for this to be broken to the downwards and bears dominated the intraday session until the close. Important zones Resistance: 12 031, 11 899, 11 8845 Support: 11 615 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today's price opens with an ascending gap which could be closed and adequately find buyers at 11 615. We can then target our trades to retest yesterday's high and retest of the resistance zone of 11 845 - 11 899. If there are no significant buying pressures around 11 615, it is more likely that yesterday's low will be broken. As soon as that happens, buyers could shift things around to correct the fall and Dax would likely to oscillate and close inside yesterday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 05 Aug 2019 Friday's session started with a slight downward movement which prevailed for the whole intraday session. We've had a bearish based bias and our hypothesis played out as expected. Today we open with a really big descending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 031, 11 899, 11 823 Support: 11 657 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 16:00 CEST - USA - ISM Non-Manufacturing Today's session hypothesis Today we open with a 170 points sized gap which equals the range of a volatile day session. There was a row of really nice S/R levels formed. The first zone of our interest is the resistance at 11 823 which could be retested today. If sellers aren't strong enough, Dax could head towards 11 899 and close the gap. Buyers might appear around 11 657.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 01 Aug 2019 And so August is here. Yesterday's price action was dominated by FOMC. Dax first closed the gap, found some buyers and then went idle. After the FOMC came out, the 83% statistical probability of breaking the previous day low was successfully fulfilled. The price closed the gap this morning right after the open. Important zones Resistance: 12 283 Support: 12 073 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs 13:00 CEST - United Kingdom - Official Bank Rate, Statement, Votes & Inflation report. All of these could influence DAX as well. Today's session hypothesis Most of the time, days following the FOMC are relatively calmer. Moreover, it's a summer holiday season. We have a weaker support zone near the current price, laying at 12 073. That level could be used by buyers. From the price action perspective, it is difficult to estimate today's direction development. Talking about the probabilities, we have 80% for breaking yesterday's high or low and then there is a statistical chance of 78% that Dax might close inside yesterday's range. Taking this into account, it is rather wise to target our trades back into range should the high/low be broken.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 24 Jul 2019 Our Statistical Application did a great job again. As per the statistical probabilities, it was very likely that Dax would continue its upward move and so it happened. The price went up just to slow down at the resistance level of 12 380 and then went over the roof, making a strong upward momentum for the entire intraday trading. Important zones Resistance: 12 540, 12 576 Support: 12 437, 12 338 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 69% The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 90% Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs Today's session hypothesis Yesterday's session was very bullish. The statistics play for today's continuation as well. The combination of probabilities suggests we could retest 12 541. Another resistance we have lays around 12 576. The start of the session is great as well as the price drops slightly which is a positive key for us as the long trades have a better filling. Let's not forget that although we have a strong bullish confluence, the market might go its own way. Be careful around PMIs releases from Eurozone.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 22 Jul 2019 Both buyers and sellers could take good advantage of Friday's session. Dax first headed upwards and stopped at 12 330 where the price sharply reversed. Bears were held down at 12 200, slightly below our mentioned support zone. The session ended near its open priced 12 227. Important zones Resistance: 12 330, 12 380 Support: 12 234, 12 200 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today's session was opened at Friday's close, without any surprise gap. Dax is now edging at the S/R zone at 12 234 and this might be the deciding factor for today's direction estimation. Should sellers dominate right away, the logical target lays as a support level around 12 200. Very straight forward, if buyers are stronger from the beginning, the path is open all the way back to 12 329. Mondays are generally calm from the volatility perspective and same is expected for today as well.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 18 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session was exemplary from the price action point of view. The descending trend line functioned as a resistance and the price bounced off that level. Bears were aggressive enough to create a strong momentum, pushing Dax lower till the session end. This strongly negative day was closed at 12 294. Important zones Resistance: 12 293, trend line Support: 12 189 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis This morning, Dax opened with a descending gap which is sized 94 points. No surprise that yesterday's bearish momentum prevailed and the priced gapped in the same direction. The probability of closing the gap today is relatively small. Although the price dropped down to touch the support zone of 12 189, it doesn't necessarily mean Dax can't continue even lower. We estimate the initial correction of yesterday's downfall followed by another bearish action.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 17 Jul 2019Tuesday's session could be characterized as a lazy and boring one for most of its duration. Dax started by closing the gap, followed by the entry of sellers who took the price down to the support level at 12 350. This zone functioned perfectly and the price bounced as expected. There was even an intra-day low formed there. Dax opened with a descending gap this morning, which is already closed at the time we write this. Important zones Resistance: 12494, trend line Support: 12 339 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis If we disregard the Monday's rocket move, Dax is relatively slow from the beginning of the summer holiday. For today, we have three zones nearby which could play some importance in the price action. On the long side, we see a resistance at 12 494. If we find sellers at the trend-line, it is likely the price will slow down inside yesterday's session range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 15 Jul 2019 Friday's price action ended prematurely, soon after the session opened and Dax fell by some 80 points. Following was a sideway movement and closing in the middle of the intra-day range. Today we open with an ascending gap which might soon be closed. Important zones Resistance: NIL Support: 12 277 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today's analysis will be slightly plain as Dax doesn't provide many clues for any further development. There is one notable support level nearby and this is laying at 12 277. There is no resistance to pinpoint, statistics idle and the price action is dull too. We wish you all a good start to this trading week and be safe in the markets.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 12 Jul 2019 This is the last analysis of the week. As expected, Dax initially declined yesterday and closed the gap. Buyers entered at our support but didn't last long. After some 35 points, buyers were overpowered by sellers again. Following was a retest of 12 328 level which was broken out by some 16 points before buyers flexed their muscles. Today we open with an ascending gap, which is already closed at the time we write this. Important zones Resistance: 12 500 Support: 12 291 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis After today's open, Dax started its downward momentum quite strongly. The first hour already has a range of some 60 points, which is unusual. Beware of some trend reversal signals. We have a nice support zone a 12 290 where we might find some buyers. In any way, it's better to be less aggressive in the long direction today.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 09 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session was very nice from our point of view. As we highlighted, Dax first went up to close the gap at the resistance level of 12 564. The price then reversed exemplarily and the high intra-day swing was formed as well. Today, Dax opens with a descending gap and so far, the momentum indicates the retest of the support level laying at 12 391. Important zones Resistance: 12 504 Support: 12 391, 12 329 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Right now, we are in the gap territory formed between 28 Jun and 01 Jul. For this reason, we anticipate a move towards 12 391 where we could find some buyers. If the support level of 12 391 doesn't hold bearish momentum, then another suitable buy zone is at 12 326. On the other hand, if bulls dominate the market from the beginning, it is likely the price will bounce off the 12 504 for some nice correction. If that doesn't happen, the probability of breaking yesterday's high is still least likely, with only 9% chance of this happening.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO