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What to expect from BTC in the next six months? Global forecastHalf of 2024 is over. During this time, Bitcoin has managed to update its 💥 historical highs. What can we expect from bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in the future? For six months, there was only one month when the price was actively growing. It was February 2024: In one month, the BTC price rose by 💎43% and began consolidating on the monthly timeframe. In March, the BTC price updated its historical high. This month saw the highest volume trading in 2024. The situation with BTC is most dangerous on the monthly timeframe . For 4 months, bitcoin has been consolidating under the historical high. If we didn't know that it was bitcoin, we would have expected the price to fall by the end of 2024 with a minimum target of $41,000. However, a similar situation with bitcoin occurred exactly a year ago. The BTC price stopped in consolidation starting in March 2023. During the summer, bitcoin did not move anywhere globally, and since September, we have seen a powerful wave of growth: Given the fact that bitcoin has never stopped its growth after updating its historical highs, the likelihood of such a scenario is also high: Great! So how do we make trading decisions? To do this, let's look at smaller timeframes. For example, a weekly one. After a strong upward momentum in the BTC price since September 2023, sellers have reacted rather weakly to the update of the historical high: In our opinion, everything will become clear after the BTC price updates the $56,000 mark. If the decline slows down and the price rebounds actively, we do not expect a deep correction of BTC and will wait for the extension of the BTC term and the update of historical highs by the end of 2024. However, if there is no support in the $55,000 range , this is a signal that 2024 will end with a boring correction with the main target of $42,000. And until the BTC price tests the $55,000 range, we would not make global decisions. However, what will happen to altcoins if, for example, bitcoin goes to $42,000? Here, I would like to show you a chart of BTC's dominance on the monthly timeframe so that you can understand how much things can change: Since October 2023, it has become extremely difficult to update local highs on the BTC dominance chart. And this is not even helped by Bitcoin ETFs. During July-August 2024, bitcoin's influence may drop sharply to 47%. Therefore, even in a negative scenario, when bitcoin falls to the $42,000 range, other cryptocurrencies should not fall as much as they did in June. And now let's look at what chance the cryptocurrency market has of falling back into a protracted crypto winter! Here is a chart of USDT's dominance on the monthly timeframe: In January 2024, the USDT dominance indicator broke through the 2019 USDT dominance uptrend! The worst-case scenario we see now is a retest of the consolidation in which USDT dominance moved from June 2022 to October 2023. However, such a scenario is possible if the current 5.1% range does not keep the pressure off USDT dominance: On the weekly timeframe, we can see that the growth structure of USDT dominance does not look strong. What conclusions can be drawn from this information? 👉By the end of the summer, bitcoin has a good chance of losing its influence on the cryptocurrency market. And it can happen abruptly. 👉In July, it will become clear whether the cryptocurrency market will grow by the end of 2024 or whether 2024 will end on a bearish note. 👉Right now, there is a critical point in the cryptocurrency market from which the market can start a new medium-term growth wave. And it is during this growth that altcoins will feel good. What do you think about the cryptocurrency market by the end of 2024? Write your thoughts in the comments!
by P_S_trade
19
Bitcoin Cash BCH - long trade #16Hello colleagues! While bitcoin is once again stuck in a narrow consolidation, we have found an interesting short-term trade that we want to take. After a successful local growth wave on September 11, the BCH price began a correction. Since 22 September, sellers have twice updated local lows. However, they failed to gain a foothold below the $205-207 range. Given the nature of the fall in the BCH price since September 19 , sellers do not have the strength to continue the pressure. In our opinion, a new wave of BCH's likely decline may begin after the local high of $218.9 is updated. At this point, it will become clear whether the local wave of growth is part of a correction or a new growth momentum that will easily reach the medium-term target in the $225-229 range. However, we are interested in a short-term trade with the following parameters: Enter =205-207$. Stop = 201.7 (- 2.14%) TP = 218.46 (+5.99%) P/L ratio = 2.8 We are again placing a fairly short stop order, as if buyers are weak in the $205-207 range, the price of BCH could fall sharply below $195, where we would once again take a risk on buying BCH. We allocate $5,000 for this trade. In case of a mistake, we will receive a loss of $107 . If the trade works out, we will get a profit of $299.5
Long
by P_S_trade
23
AAVE cryptocurrency - LONG trade. #15Hello colleagues! We continue to publish our potential trades and today we have a potential short-term speculation. The AAVE cryptocurrency is holding up very well on the local drop in Bitcoin and the medium-term upward trend for AAVE is not over yet: As we can see on the 6-hour timeframe , the AAVE price has reached an important range from which a global correction may begin. But for now, we are interested in speculation on the 30-minute timeframe. The key liquid zone for the local growth of the AAVE price is the range of $62.25-62.75. If the AAVE price falls below this liquid zone, a lot of buyer stop orders that are hidden behind each local low may be triggered: If this happens, it will be logical to buy AAVE at $56-57 at the earliest. Therefore, our local trade will have a fairly short stop loss, which, in our opinion, is quite fair. AAVE short-term long Enter = $62.25-62.75 Stop = 61.792 (- 1.01%) TP1 = 64.10 (+2.71%) TP2 = 65.08 (+ 4.31%) P/L ratio = 4.26 P.S. We have also shown a potential short position on the chart. However, we do not place limit orders, as buyers can easily update local highs and only then start a correction: We need to watch and make a decision at the moment of the $65 retest. What do you think, will the trade work out? Write in the comments and we will check how many people were right!
by P_S_trade
22
10 public crypto trades for the last month - statistics on TVHello colleagues! Since 17 August 2023, we have changed the format of our ideas on tradingview. Instead of medium-term forecasts, where we shared the main and alternative scenarios of price movements, we started publishing potential trades. In addition, we backed these trades with specific amounts of money to show how cryptocurrency trading looks like in practice. From 17 August to the present day, the price of bitcoin has not shown a specific trend: Low volatility abruptly changed to high volatility and then subsided. For us, it was not a very pleasant time to trade. Nevertheless, we want to analyze 10 trades that we published during this period and share our financial results for the month. Trade #1 is a short on Bitcoin: In this trade, we tried to enter a short position on a rebound from the $29,000 range. However, the price of BTC fell without correction, without taking us with it. We allocated $5000 for this trade, but we failed to realize this drop. Therefore, we do not count this trade in our statistics. Trade #2 Long SUI In this trade, we entered at $10,000 and it was fully executed. Buyers were able to hold the range of $0.523 and take the price to our target of $0.6114. Notice how high the volatility was on the SUI chart. After this top bounce, the price of SUI dropped by $0.4188. On this trade, we took 16.84% of the price movement and earned $1450 . Why? We took profits in two places, at $0.58 and $0.6114. It was safer for us, as the other one does not always reach the desired target. Trade #3 Bitcoin long After the BTC price consolidation formed, we expected local manipulation to enter the position safely. However, sellers failed to update the local lows, and we again saw the BTC price move without a position. We had allocated $10000 for this trade, but again failed to jump into the trade. It's not good, the trade is not active, let's move on. Trade #4 LTC Long Since then, our understanding of the market has been failing us. However, the risk management did not let us down. The logic of the LTC trade was as follows: There was a downward momentum, which could have been the culmination of the fall A phase of position building began There was a local increase in the LTC price, which could indicate the start of a new wave. Understanding the market in this way, we expected to catch a 20% growth momentum on a local correction. The stop order was short - 3%. However, the price reached our stop order very aggressively and continued to fall by another 7.5%. We allocated $10000 for this trade. Considering that our stop order was 3.82%, we lost $390. Trade #5 Long C98 It was an experimental trade. You can probably tell by the target we set and the stop order. While Bitcoin was in consolidation, low-liquid assets began to make good waves of growth. By that time (2 September 2023), they had already risen by 100% or more: #AGLD #BLZ #CYBER #JOE #NMR And others Analyzing the cryptocurrencies that started strong impulses, we selected several cryptocurrencies in order to calculate who might be next. That is why we set a short stop order and halved the size of the position to $5000. The result was -$165. However, if the trade had been executed, we would have received $6000. Is it wise to get 20 stop losses at $165 to get one powerful trade? Write your answers in the comments! Trade #6 Long INJ The INJ trade is the second attempt to catch a powerful trade with low risks. At the moment, the trade is successful and shows +10% . We will record this result for the trade, as it is unclear how long it will take to implement this trade. Nevertheless, the chance of a retracement is quite high. We allocated $10000 for this trade. Taking into account that we record 10% of the price movement for statistics, the profit on the trade is $1000. Trade #7 Short OCEAN This trade is the first one where the stop loss was triggered incorrectly. That is, the stop was triggered, but the price went in the right direction. Perhaps it is worth analyzing this trade in more detail. At the time of planning a potential trade, we saw some weakness on the buy side: The price of OCEAN reached the $0.329 range and sellers became more active. Please note that the bulls have updated their local lows. And after a false breakout of the $0.329 range, they did it again. Given the weak wave of OCEAN's growth after that, we didn't expect the pair to update local highs, so we decided to place a short stop. Could we have placed a longer stop in this situation? Yes, but the looping stop order would have had to be at $0.341. In this case, the ratio of potential profit to loss was incorrect. Therefore, in this case, we saved on the size of the stop order and suffered a loss. But as you can see, OCEAN is quite strong and has not yet reached the final target (only the first one). We allocated $10000 for this trade and suffered a loss of $204 Trade #8 ANKR long The same logic was used here as with the C98 and INJ trades. A short stop order and a calculation on the momentum. The result was the triggering of the stop order. We allocated $5000 for this trade, so the loss is $120 Trade 9 - Bitcoin long After two previous attempts to catch a trade on bitcoin in this situation, we changed our tactics. We still believed that without a false breakout, the price of BTC would not start local growth. However, in order not to lose our position, we identified two buy zones. This time, two buy zones worked and the price reached our targets. We allocated $10,000 for this trade. Having caught about 6% of the price movement, we earned $601 Trade #10 Long CFX This is the fourth experimental trade, which was aimed at catching a powerful upward momentum. In this trade, we moved the stop loss lower due to the growing level of volatility in the market. However, as practice has shown, it was in vain. As a result, we got a stop loss of -7.96 %. We allocated $5000 for this trade. The loss on this trade was -$398. Financial results of the first 10 public trades for the period from 17 August to 8 September Trade #1 - short on Bitcoin: the trade did not take place Trade #2 Long SUI: +$1450 Trade #3 Bitcoin long: the trade did not take place Trade #4 LTC Long: -$390 Trade #5 Long C98: -$165 Trade #6 Long INJ: +$1000 Trade #7 Short OCEAN: -$204 Trade #8 Long ANKR: - $120 Trade #9 - Bitcoin long: +$601 Trade #10 Long CFX: - $398 Total result: $1774. As you can see, having more unprofitable trades with proper risk management can help you make a profit in such a volatile market as we are in now. What are your financial results for the past month? How is your trading going? Write your thoughts about our trades and our statistics in the comments! P.S. All the figures we used in these statistics are publicly available on tradingview.
by P_S_trade
17
Cryptocurrency OCEAN - we expect a local short. Trade #7Hello colleagues! It's time for our 7th potential trade! Today we will share with you a forecast and a potential trade for OCEAN The cryptocurrency market is now one step away from a strong momentum . Bitcoin's price is at the critical point of $25650-25750, below which there are a large number of stop orders from local buyers: Therefore, during this update of the lows, a strong wave of decline may occur, as well as a false breakout of local lows and a strong growth momentum. In our previous publications , we have shown cryptocurrencies for which we are ready to take long positions. Today, we will talk about a short position, for which the entry point is, in our opinion, right now. OCEAN 12H On the chart, we can see that the price of OCEAN has begun a local correction of the upward wave from 17 August. Sellers have updated local lows, which has triggered a local rise in OCEAN. However, this growth does not yet look confident either by candlesticks or trading volumes. If buyers are unable to update the daily high with candles from 04.09.23 today, entering a short position will be logical, reasonable, and low-risk. If the local high is updated, buyers will have a better chance of continuing to grow to 0.3577. Therefore, we plan to set a stop order for ourselves quite short. OCEAN short trade: Enter = $0.3287 Stop = $0.3352( - 1.98%) TP1 = $0.3031 (+5.84%) TP2 = $0.2923 P/L ratio = 5.42 We allocate $10,000 for this trade . If successful, we will receive $1105 . If we make a mistake, we will lose $204 What do you think of this trade? Write in the comments below our forecast!
OShort
by P_S_trade
17
Is BITCOIN hinting at an upward rebound? Long trade #3Hello colleagues! We are continuing our new section of clear trades. Today we'll talk about BTC. In the previous trade , we correctly identified the direction of the market. However, the market did not give us the opportunity to enter a position where we were safe: Today, we will try to catch a short-term trade within the consolidation. Since 15 August, the price of BTC has fallen aggressively by 14%. Since then, BTC has been trading in a narrow range of $25800-26900 . Such a weak reaction from buyers can indicate two things: - The market is very weak and will continue to fall in the short term - Buyers have organised a range to gain positions and the cryptocurrency market will continue to consolidate for some time. Given that the price is now near the lower boundary of consolidation, it is quite logical to try to catch a long trade. Why is the entry point below the liquid range? As you can see on the chart, we believe that the strong liquid zone is in the range of $25800-25880. However, if you open the 15-minute timeframe , you can see an interesting pattern: In addition to the fact that trading volumes are growing near the $25800-25880 range , you can see that BTC's local growth begins only after a false breakout of an important liquid zone. After a false breakout, a retest takes place, and only then does the price of bitcoin head towards the upper boundary of consolidation. Bitcoin is a short-term trade: Given this pattern, we expect to catch a long trade: #BTCUSDT 2h Enter = 25665 Stop = 25276 (- 1.5%) TP = 26921 (+ 4.9%) P/L ratio = 3.23 To be on the safe side, part of the position can be bought at $25665 , and the other part after the rebound and retest of the $25800 range. What do you think of this trade and what is your vision of the bitcoin market? Write about it in the comments!
Long
by P_S_trade
25
SUI hints at a local growth wave - long trade #2Hello colleagues! It's time for the second potential trade that we are planning to implement. This is a long on the cryptocurrency SUI. Unfortunately, we did not manage to execute the first trade , as the price of BTC started to fall sharply without us. On 17 August, the SUI cryptocurrency updated its local low. The update of the local low occurred on increased volumes. The latest wave of decline in SUI has "resurrected" buyers, who have organised a good rebound to the $0.56 range. We would like to pay special attention to the local wave of decline from 20 to 22 August. This wave of decline was on good volumes. However, sellers were unable to push the price below the previous local low of 10 June. This is a good signal that a large buyer is ready to keep the price of SUI up at least in the short term. Another good signal is the active rebound of the SUI price after the $0.51 test. Taking these arguments into account, we want to enter a long trade for SUI: Enter = 0.5204 - this is the range where the position was entered. If the price is to rise, it should not fall below this range. Stop = 0.5039 (-3.2%) - in our opinion, it makes no sense to keep SUI below this level TP = 0.612 (+ 17.6%) - The price of SUI may not rise above this liquid zone at first. P/L ratio = 5.5 We also allocate $10,000 for this trade . In case of a mistake, our loss will be $320, and in case of trade execution, our profit will be $1760. What do you think of this trade? How do you see the situation with SUI? Write in the comments below our forecast
Long
by P_S_trade
45