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ES - Wider Perspective for the FOMC July 26 - 27 / Bull & BearFriday's move back up on very low volumes was another Lift to the Indices while lifting was unopposed for a very Low Participation Day. It is quite clear the ALGO has an agenda, they were not competing on ST/IT Friday. It is easy to spot the desired defense to Price Objectives - a Violent Defense appears and with it - the attendant Price Expansion in very short order. There were 7 of these events this past week. Blowing out both sides during Globex an hour before the NYSE Open, only to Oppose again. There was fuel this week to squeeze, it was primarily Retail's Options leverage on both the SPY and the Mega Caps. Apple traded a significant amount of Options well over 1 Million. It was a nothing week in Sum Total - after 4 days of decline in the SPY, Day 5 brought the BOTs revenge to prevent the inevitable "El Cliffo" - West End dive off Negril's seaside suicides. Financials led Friday. Citi took the opportunity to report all sorts of Whoppers... 100% BS. XLF, and NQ Bank rescued the ES - the rest of the Sectors were simply dragged along. Personally, I found it to be a pathetic display of the Structural rotations the BOTs are exceptional at making, we saw the same in Tech at the beginning of the Week. XLK saved the Day while the ES struggled to hold on Monday to Thursday. _________________________________________________________________________________ The bulls are attempting to Front Run what will be perceived declines in "Inflation for August" as Energy came off its highs to our Price Objective at 90.63. A 6-tick dip in only to rip once again in reverse. With Biden mumbling to MBS, we'll see what this weekend brings on the Media Hype front beyond the Fist Bumps and failed isolationist Admin Policies. Institutions are unimpressed and unwilling to commit to a substantial position anywhere. Retail is welcome to hold the defensive bags. Waiting on Godot... For the Bulls, this week was not constructive, on balance, until Friday. Let's drill down into the Funda's and T/A as we move in for Time in the following commentaries. We will review the causations in SUM and see if we cannot determine the potential outcomes. ___________________________________________________________________________________
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
ES - 15Min / Setting up for a Reversal Gap(s) Below should be filled. Will Pirce hold up until Thursday, Apple Reports... Core Durable Goods @ 8:30 AM EST. We witnessed Sellers intent, Highs were SOLD in the Equity Complex. Price should chop along the Range at highs until it rolls back over. We anticipate the Lows to be tested and exceeded moving towards the 200SMAs. The VIX will need to complete its setup as will the VXN. This rushed move back to Highs was fueled entirely by Retail ETF INV Buyers and the Fute's Sellers. At present, they are gunshy, having been run and run quite hard. Swing Traders are yet to reposition in size. Expect wild swings in both directions into November, Ultimately, we believe the Indices give up the ghost and begin to trade lower. There are far too many Conditions within the Market Structure which do not support Price being Sustained much longer.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
1
ES - 15Min Falling Wedge - 4400 holds or it's 4350s-4380sGlobex Sessions are always and without exception, Sketchy. We are approaching an important juncture ahead of Wednesday's FOMC. We have a prior pattern of Consolidation which aligns with the end of the First week of October and early into the Second Week, This is likley where we will see the return to trend into a 7/7, 9/9 or perhaps with the 400SMAs being tested - 13/13. No sense in chasing it either way, as there will be a trap, a sizeable one. It will be dependent on Coupons once again as $12.147 Billion created a large squeeze. Fed Open Market Operations can be observed @ the NYFED, the schedule for Reverse Repurchase, TOMO, POMO actions including Sec LNDs and CP's are updated as they were two days ago. Lull's in Coupon Purchsases followed by larger CP's is an indicator. We use this Data, as it correlates well. This Chart is for Retracement purposes, the prior Post illustrates the 4Hr Lower Price Objectives.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
1
SPY- Risk RewardWhy hasn't the IWM (Russel ETF) moved like the rest of the market today? hm. That has given me confidence, as in the prior breakdown IWM was a leading indicator. We still have our daily Stochastic in overbought and had crossed a few days ago. 50 EMA very close as resistance. A multitude of Other resistances in this area including fibs, from various tops. Could this be the final flush out? Change of behavior in the futures markets these last few days. Earnings coming up, - uncertainty. Continual geo political uncertainty. Stay safe if your long at these levels.
SP:SPXShort
by PipMiesterStronger