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Psychological

Nothing stopping path to .74000As I have been saying for the last 2 months NZDUSD is included in the pairs hitting previous 2018 highs. Attached is my idea from almost two months ago forecasting this exact play out. Notice no indicators? No need when understanding price action at psychological levels. Pull up the 4 hour and daily and find a reason why the trend would not continue to .74000. I could not! Those who follow me know I am huge advocate for learning price action at psych levels and my sentiment the last two months %100 correlates with the current trend. Please comment with your thoughts and ideas. Thank you.
Long
by Pika7993
1
Sell and look for next buy entry (SWING)While the pair is finding rejection DXY found major support from bottom. I sentiment a short sell off to pivot off main supports I mapped out. Sell could be a short scalp with pivot off first support. One could be safe and only enter a buy at the next support pivot. My overall sentiment is a push to 1.25000 high as it did in Jan 2018 as I have been preaching. At these levels we are psychological. Many traders are confused many COVID sentiment which is why it is important to have psychological level knowledge to your trading. Study chart and wait for safe entry. Please comment with thoughts and ideas. Thank you.
Short
by Pika7993
Topside exhaustion at Psych level (Sell stop .73700)Today we reached a key level for this pair at .74000 for the second time from the .55000 low in March. Despite the dollars weakness AUD was not able to push through .74000 and was immediately rejected. A rejection from this point aims for .72200 for the first retest. .73710 is this pairs exhaustion point established from the .55000 low. Exhaustion points are marked just under key psychological levels as the momentum slows down before retesting the psychological level. Within this pair, the exhaustion point prepares holders to take their profit while preparing sellers to find a perfect entry point. Once a close out below this .73710 exhaustion level occurs sellers will pick up the volume creating momentum. To avoid a poor entry I am looking to place a sell stop at .73700 with TP 1 at at .72200. Consolidation will occur before pivoting or making a breach through .72200. Furthermore if .72200 is breach a retest of .70000 is likely. There was a lot of sentiment towards a breach through .74000 but due to the inability to push through today while the dollar has been at its weakest tells me otherwise. This is a scenario where technicalities such as strong psychological levels rule over clear fundamentals which in this case would be in AUD favor. Attached is my sell idea earlier in the weak where I marked my sell point at .73700 which remains my current sell stop. Consolidation at the exhaustion point occurred for several hours before reaching for .74000 which is a strong indication that trend sentiment was reversing. Please comment with thoughts and ideas. Thank you 🙏
Short
by Pika7993
Three Alternatives to Charting Uncharted TerritoryWithin technical analysis you use indicators and price action to determine what the next most likely move of an asset is going to be. I love indicators, but I love price action even more. It works for me, it's simple, it's clean and there isn't too much hocus pocus. The downside with price action though is that you need to be able to observe price action in similar areas to the one you are trading in now. When a price moves up like crazy such as what bitcoin did, you won't see anything on the chart that is comparable or that you can relate to. In that case, you have to be creative. You can either go back in time, and find comparable prices way back. The downside here is that the further back you go, the less predictive that action is. You can also chart based on psychological support and resistance. Think creatively about at which points the price is likely to bounce and use those instead. And finally you can use other price action indicators such as the Fibonacci retracement. In this analysis I show all of these. Let's walk through them one by one. First of all, you can clearly see the Fibonacci retracement. I used the most recent low, and the most recent high to draw the fib. Immediately, a few things stand out. We see the beautiful bounce around .236, a level that usually only matters in very bullish set-ups as the price often breaks right through. Also we see that there is resistance at the .382 level and at the end of the golden pocket. You could use that information to determine a good entry for a long and estimate a reversal point. Then, I also looked at price action way, way back. We see a very interesting horizontal zone coming from July '19. There was also another horizontal zone that didn't fit on the chart anymore around the $17,200 from January '18. You can use the upper one to mark an area where you can expect resistance, and the lower one as an area where you can expect support. And then finally you have psychological levels. I highlighted one very important one here at the $16,000 level as I expect we'll be mostly looking at the more bullish levels soon anyway. The price beautifully bounced around that level and I expect it can happen again. The price might get rejected and reverse when it's moving upwards around that level, or break through and use a S/R flip to find support again near that same level. As for my expectations on price, I expect a form of consolidation now where BTC will not be the star of the show for a while, but instead we will focus on great Alt opportunities. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Trading-Guru
4
What it means to be a "Trader"...Fact; - The top 3 Hedge Fund managers, in excess of +11,000% net lifetime earnings, have no more than 3 trades, total, constituting >85% of their total, life-time earnings. - Every last one of the top life-time earners ("Trading Legends") - in excess of +11 000% (eleven thousand percent net return(!!) - have made their fortunes in Commodities and FX. (Soros, Druckenmiller, Jones, Lewis, Kwane, Trout, the Richies, etc.) No stocks / equities / or similar dog sh#&t! - None, nada, zero! Now, most morons attribute the above facts to the "power of leverage". Are you friggin kidding me?! That is absolute nonsense! In what universe does "leverage", in itself, contribute to trading success??... But if you want "fast money", know this; Commodities and Forex have real hedgers and therefore it is a positive sum game for speculators. Whereas stocks?... It is the same idiots trying to make money ripping each other off. It is truly a zero sum game, a pyramid scheme. To make any money on any of those bags of odorous excrement (20x, 100x, 200x earnings) one would have to not only hold them for years but also *** be right about the trade ***! Otherwise what?... Are you going to hold the bag on some dog crap for 5 years, at a time, just to learn that you were wrong?! Is that the plan?... At the same time a Commodity or a Forex trade will provide you with the "meat of the move" in days, weeks or a couple of months, max. You will at least know, right or wrong, about the trade's prospects, aeons before some garbage stock trader ends up holding the bag for the better part of his natural life. Traders are like snipers; They sit in wait for the right moment and are there for one, singular, solitary reason: For the kill! No more, no less. Whatever it takes. What Traders are not; A) Traders are not "investors"; B) Traders are not "scalpers", nor "grinders"; C) Traders do not exist to "forgive", to "let off the hook" or to "give back". Traders have zero problem to tear you from limb-to-limb and to eat your still beating heart in the front of you, as you watch. - And all that before ever breaking a sweat. ... because anything short of that is a loosing proposition! E.g. "trading" is not a forgiving business so you better be right! Man (as in: The Species) has two (2) fundamental and overwhelming driving forces: Fear & Greed. (Man is also territorial! E.g. trading is not a team sport.) Every time you enter a position you are taking on massive risks. That is the name of the game: The buying and selling of risk. Thus, being careful and selective is much regarded as in good form. Here is what you are up against; images-wixmp-ed30a86b8c4ca887773594c2.wixmp.com - In 2019 the 5 major FX Dealers have booked $147 Billion US in profits; - Top life-time earners, between 1980-2010, made: +11 000% (eleven thousand) - Total; - Top earners between 2010-2020 are currently earning: +3000% (three thousand) Annually(!!); - A typical, top FX Dealer (UBS) has ~210 traders, working in 3 shifts, 24/5; - A top FX Trader clears $6-$13 Million in bonuses, annually; - The average Trade Portfolio size (per trading floor) is $4.7 Billion US; - The average dealer risk limit per $100 Million is 3.5 pips. In short, these people do not get up every morning to let you take their Rolls Royces or to have their wife leave them because they can no longer afford the private schools for their children. They do not go to the office, day after day, to let you load your $50, $500, $5 Million, in the correct market direction, with nice tight stops, for you to sleep easy because little risk is involved. No Sir! Put yourself in their shoes! They must buy when you want to sell and vice versa. So when you spot that big, one-way move... So do they! - But they have no choice in the matter because that is what dealers must do - e.g. the opposite of what you have decided. So how could they ever make money? Simply, by taking that nice, tidy, one-way, mega move and shove it back up where the sun don't shine, as often as possible, all along the way. It is simple as that. So the next time you sit down in the front of the computer to make a trade just remember who is on the other side of that screen. Ergo, you better be ready - by whatever means - to do the same thing to them as they are sure to be about to do it to you! "... and when you see it, you bet the farm!" - Stanley Druckenmiller
Education
by Nemo_Confidat
4
Stages of Trading Psychology💣 or It's ok not always be ok😉Hello, dear friends. 💋I feel amazing publishing EDU posts.💥🚀 And now I wanna share with you an useful post. 💪🏻It's very important now. 🔥 Because the market situation is still ambiguous! Enjoy it.🧡 Optimism - It all starts with a positive outlook on the market situation, which leads the trader to open a deal. Trade in anticipation of future success. Excitement - The market begins to move in the predicted direction. The trader anticipates events and hopes that success is ensured. Thrill - The market continues to move in the direction the trader needs, this is a moment of joyful fading. At this stage, the trader is fully confident in his trading system. Euphoria - Point of maximum financial risk. Investments turn into quick and easy returns. Trader completely ignores risk. Anxiety - Oh no, the market is turning around! The first signs of movement appear not in favor of the trader. But he does not notice this and believes that the market will recover and the trend will continue. Denial - The expected market recovery did not happen. The trader does not accept what is happening and remains in position. Fear - Reality dictates its own rules, and the trader begins to realize that he is not as smart as he previously thought. Instead of confidence in success, thoughts begin to get confused. Desperation - At this point, all profits are lost. The trader had a chance to take profits, but he missed it. Not knowing how to proceed further, he is trying to do everything to return at least to the breakeven point. Panic - The most emotional period. At this stage, the trader feels his ignorance and helplessness and is wholly in the grip of the market. The mind is paralyzed, which sometimes leads to meaningless actions in the market. Capitulation - The trader has reached the limit of patience and closes the position so as not to increase losses anymore. Despondency - After exiting the market, the trader no longer has the slightest desire to enter into transactions. Depression - The trader begins to blame himself for the stupidity of why he did not close the deal on time. Some choose the right path and begin to analyze what went wrong. Real traders are born precisely at this stage, studying past mistakes and drawing conclusions. Hope - “I can still do it!” In the end, the trader returns to the realization that there really are cycles in the market. He begins to analyze new opportunities. Relief - At this stage, the trader restores faith in his future in the market and starts trading again. The stages considered by us well demonstrate how psychology influences trading. 80% of success in the market directly depends on the correct psychological state of the trader. I wanna remind You, that I have already created two chapters of my own free training manual here, you can familiarize yourself 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 Thank you staying with me🙏🏻 Love YOU🧡🧡🧡 Always Sincerely Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
33
Hope. 🙏🏻 Fear. 😱 Greed. 🤑 Welcome, guys! 😊Today I wanna talk with you about our feelings and emotions💋💋💋 💥 Fear of falling prices provokes a sell , and the opportunity to lose chance to make monney leads to an unreasonable buy .💥              ⚡Such pernicious emotion like greed is a manifestation of the trader’s arrogance and his thirst for a good income as soon as possible, which also provokes the unfoundedness of transactions.🤷🏻‍♀️         Many psychologists and scientists do a lot of research in the study of human emotions and feelings, the results of which show the ability to control their emotions. 💪🏻 In trading, managing emotions is a very necessary. 💪🏻 Let's consider three seemingly simple emotions on which a trader’s work in the market depends in more detail: 📌Fear 📌Hope 📌Greed 😱 The role of fear in trading 😱         In fact, fear plays a significant role in the market. Fear often deprives the trader of the opportunity to earn money, but also saving him from making fatal decisions. The emotion of fear often serves as a kind of "brake" for the trader.        A frightened trader is obsessed with the adverse aspects of trading. Fear of losing money generates a lot of other negative emotions in your head. 🤑 Trader's greed would destroy. 🤑 Greed is a disastrous and dangerous feeling, especially for a trader. The prevalence of greed rarely can help to achieve the desired result. It depriving people of the ability to think soberly and objectively. Often, having felt success, a trader wants to earn more and more by making the following mistakes: ❗ Untimely exit from the transaction ❗ Hold position more then you need ❗ Overstatement of risks 🙏🏻 Hope is the last thing to die 🙏🏻 Of all three emotions, most market participants live with hope. This emotion is completely opposite to fear, because its presence affects the positive thinking of the outcome of the trade. In moments of hope, the thinking of market participants is aimed at making profit, not losing it. People trade in order to achieve success and financial stability, taking income from the market. The circle of such people was divided into optimists and pessimists, absorbed in hope, fear and greed, only to different degrees. One way or another, an overabundance of these emotions can lead to losses . The best option is to find the “golden mean” and learn how to manage your emotions.💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻 😊😊I hope you enjoyed my post, don't forget to support me with like 🌞, subscribe,for don't get lost!💋 Below are links to my previous ideas👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 Stay with me🌞 Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
23
ETHUSD Psychological Resistance and the Ascending Channel RetestIn this idea, I will break down the important price levels for ETH/USD based on human psychology and explain why the confluence with the ascending channel will cause the price to drop after hitting $200. After ETH/USD broke out of this ascending parallel channel we have seen a quick retracement to the beautiful psychological level of $180. As I explained in my previous idea we are able to identify very clean levels for Ethereum that seem to hold value again and again. This time the very natural location of 180 gave support to the price. You can have a look here with a much more in-depth view on the psychological levels for support and resistance After we've seen a second bounce on the $180 level, I expect the price to move to the psychological resistance of $200. Since there is bearish confluence here on the retest of the ascending channels bottom support line and the psychological resistance, I expect the price will drop again directly after. Both of these technicals signal a probable bearish movement directly after hitting this area. If we do see a break-out, it can be of massive volatility, like we've seen earlier with psychological resistance breakouts. Especially around the $200 level. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by Trading-Guru
3
How to Trade Directly After The BTC Surge.Everyone knows I am well known for my analyses on psychological support and resistance zones and their strong predictive capabilities. We just found two new important psychological levels in the last two days. One psychological resistance at 9450 and one psychological support at 8400. -- quick reminder on these beautiful round number levels -- Computer scripts don't come up with these round numbers, humans do. You can see human trading behavior at work here, along with human psychology. This is exactly where humans would put their limit orders, or where they will put price alarms. Let's compare the different kind of support and resistance lines you can draw. First, there are the most common ones based on past price behavior. A local high will be extend on the chart to indicate that this has been a point where price has historically bounced. This has medium predictive power. Secondly, there are psychological levels without any price action. Simply looking at a chart and seeing ETH is about to hit $150 should make you conscious about having psychological resistance. You can add these lines to your chart. Thirdly, there is confluence between psychological and price based support or resistance. Those are the ones I charted here for you. These have incredible predictive power. Keep an eye on them. They are important. When we combine the 9450 and the 8400 levels with the price based resistance of slightly below the $9000 level, I see the price struggling a lot to break through the $9000. I expect it will show a healthy retracement and cool down a little moving in the direction of the psychological support zone of $8400. Then, the bears will make space again for the bulls, and we can expect a trade at least until the current resistance area. This can give us a nice 5% trade. Remember, don't FOMO buy after you've seen these massive gains. Don't go for crazy returns. This 5% trade set-up is enough for me, and it should be enough for you. Don't worry. You will get plenty more opportunities. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! Recent success stories:
Long
by Trading-Guru
10
The Secrets to Forex & Protecting Your CarryYou must read the prior articles first. If this was a video game you would probably be trying to skip the conversation boxes at this point. Don't try to speedrun this, you'll die at the boss. --------------------------------------- I'm sure you're tired of all the poetry and want to get straight to the money. Money, after all, is the best form of entertainment. Now, last time we left off with timeframes and carry conditions, key components of the overall risk management message I want to get across. I figured that most retail traders operate on multiday/multiweek positions. Most know next to nothing about carry risk or other unique risks present only for non-intraday traders. If you intend to hold positions across several weeks/months (see pt. 3 for the definition), then this section is the most important of all the articles to come. In addition, I recommend doing additional research, especially if you have a job, are in schooling, or other responsibilities; because understanding this risk (and potential reward) can be very beneficial for those with limited time to spend. Part 1: Country-level Assets All wealthy people own assets. Assets can appreciate. If you 'own' a lot, you are, by default, wealthy. At least, for a brief moment in time. When you trade in forex, you are investing in a type of asset underwritten by a 'country' and paired with a similar underlying. The country creates the supply, and sets minimum standards in demand via tax law. Like businesses with stocks, countries with currencies and bonds can default, and flatline, leading to a breadline utopia. Inversely, they can also grow, and produce something of market value; and then provide returns to everyone that bet something on them. Some countries are flailing about, some countries are stable, and some are growing with seemingly no obstacles in sight. Which one would you want to invest in? Remember the dividend question? Before some median-salary economist gets in a huff, yes it's not always as simple as 'growing country = growing interest rates.' But here's what's important for retail traders: Central banks manage these 'country-level' assets with an evolving toolbox to variable acclaim. I recommend doing your own research into that topic, because it's too far outside the scope of these articles, and there are no unified verdicts on the 'science' behind any of it. The important thing to understand is that when you invest in these country-level assets, some countries demand a fee rate, and some offer a dividend rate. THAT'S IT. Room temperature or higher IQs will get this. Part 2: Free to Play vs Fees to Play You can find these rates by googling: 'central bank interest rates.' Those negative rates are FEES TO PLAY. Zero or higher is FREE TO PLAY. If you hold currency at a broker, these rates are realized and charged or credited to your market position at the daily rollover event. This occurs at the end of the 24hr cycle set to City time. So if you hold positions over 24hr cycles, you will be charged or credited REAL MONEY (no delivery gimmicks). Now, you can't trade currency in isolation in forex, it's always in the form of a pair. In case you haven't figured this out yet, the forex trader is the type of player these articles are designed for. This means, in lazy phrasing, that you are betting on the demand for the money (investor appeal) of one country AGAINST another. If you want to invest in a country as is, you can opt for national or municipal bonds, but note they do have slightly different carry conditions. But to stay on target, what do you think happens when you match a higher rate with a lower rate? The USD is a higher rate than the JPY. The USD is free to play, the JPY charges a fee to play. When you open a position in the market, you are FUNDING one of those currencies (basically against the other). This means you are liable to the interest rate gap. Brokers have an unnecessarily complicated explanation for why they HAVE to pay you money (or take your money) even though price action may not technically move from 23:59 to 00:01. They want to balance the books in a way they are comfortable with, because they have lots of liabilities with major liquidity providers. The net takeaway is that most brokers will generally charge or credit based on the interest rate gap between the currencies in your selected pair. So carry conditions are relevant accross most brokers unless you have a based Islamic account. Note that most brokers have a separate fee (usually .25%), which means if the interest rates are equal then you still get charged at rollover. There are other subtractions brokers will make as well (never in your favor), sometimes cutting deep in the rate gap. Unsurprisingly, they want to pay you as little as possible; in some cases, you can be charged on rollover regardless of gap or position direction. This is why you need to check the 'specification' of the pair in your MT4 to see the swap (or use a calculator provided by your broker.) Some brokers have special rules for emerging currencies with high rates like 8%, other brokers may offer advantages for trading these depending on their business structure. Wed to Thurs rollover is a x3 event , basically to make up for the lack of a rollover event on Sat and Sun night. You're probably wondering why these 'small percents' matter. After all, you're in forex to make highly leveraged internet magic money, not some quarterly dividend payment like your boomer parents. Part 3: Make America Think Again But it's just pennies a day right, who cares? Carry conditions can cost or credit you pennies a day or thousands of dollars a day, depending on the size of your position or the pair in play. On some pairs, you can make 15~ USD a day with just 1 lot in the market. That's over 5k a year USD. That's the equivalent of 540 pips a year, WITH 1 LOT ON 1 PAIR. And all you have to do, is fund a high rate currency bet against a low rate currency on a popular broker. That's it. No technical moonworshipping required. No stalking some coin startups social media for pump and dump schemes. No staying up all night worrying about the West going to war with Iran because you longed the Euro before dinner. It's the opposite of the coin flip, its coin printing. Many retail traders are from developing and emerging countries, it can be an excellent opportunity for men and women of all ages. Its like working at Wall Street and sending the remittances back, all from the ease of your home; without any political, religious, cultural, or economic barriers to get in your way. Sure it's not really that convenient. But the analogy would've been really cool if it worked. So what can happen, for example. At .40 lots for a full position, you would net 1.80 USD a day. Assuming 2 weeks to fill a position at optimal entry points (we'll talk about this later), and a remaining 2.5 month duration (5 fortnites), you net about 130 from carry credit payments during that trade period (1/4 a year), and be able to close with a very profitable or at least at a net-positive price level. Keep in mind, the average yearly takehome is anywhere from 2k-10k in developing countries. 1.8 a day can represent significant supplimentary income, and you only need 100-250 (in USD equivalent value) to support margin at most brokers. You could reinvest those winnings over the course of the first year and start the next year earning 7-8 USD a day. Now some of you might have more cash to waste. With a career in a developed country, maybe you have 25-50k to responsibly throw around in your 20s, no family, STEM job, good rent contract, little student debt, etc. We can upgrade that position size to 4 to 8 lots. 18-37 USD per day. You'll be doubling (before tax) your initial capital every 4 years. Part 4: Fields of Pink But wait, what if you have the opposite position? You fund a low rate currency against a high rate currency, or your trash broker demands fees on both. Your inverted head and shoulders 4h pattern looks (and smells) great, and you're ready to long the EURUSD. You plan to hold this one for a month at least, until it hits some absolute number like 1.200 (because it's the fifth wave in some model a statistician invented 40 years ago), and therefore, must happen. You decided your 'RR' would be 3 to 1, a 150 pip stop loss and a 450 take profit. You're already taking a tendie loan out at KFC in anticipation of a big win down the line. Meanwhile, you're losing 13 dollars a day (or let's say 0.5-2 pips worth of loss), guaranteed. Because you're paying a fee to play, while taking a bet that fails at a near 50% rate (much higher for retail), while throwing away weeks/months of time in anticipation of a result/delivery (capital opportunity cost). Now, if you had ten thousand years of nutritionally deficient ancestors, I can't blame you for this decision-making. But most of us haven't. So here it is, another forex secret: Quite simply, there are pairs the vast majority of you shouldn't be trading, and that includes majors with poor carry conditions (losers both ways with rollover). Pairs like CHFJPY, or any pair that has you longing the JPY or CHF (and usually EUR). Betting against the USD is another insured risk, when looking at majors. It doesn't mean you should never fund a low rate against a high rate, but you need to think in terms of FEES. Is it worth paying a daily fee to make this trade? Now, for the greedy. You'll need to do your own research, to decide if hunting extremely high rates on emerging/exotic currencies is the best course for you and your margin, of if settling with minimal (but not negative) rates on crosses or other majors is good enough for your strategy. My guidance is to look into emerging currencies if you don't have much time to trade daily (someone with a full-time job or family) or you don't intend to sink 1,000s of hours into mastering the intra-day trade (nightmare mode). Part 5: Washington Consensus Trading with carry conditions in mind can even be advantageous compared to other asset classes (like stocks or corporate bonds). It's like trading a high yield junk bond, only you have far less risk from defaults. What's a safer institution? Some 5 month-old, toothbrush-sharing, 10 slide company with 8 employees, or the full might of a nationstate? Sure, a few nationstates have defaulted in modern history. The upside is you usually have lots of heads-up, because default tends to be political in nature. That is, if you're a nation in need of cash, you can always get a loan. It's simply a matter of if the terms are politically acceptable for your faction. This all factors into the 'heads-up' period, alerting you to pull out or reverse your position. The US tends to sanction them beforehand (conveniently) kicking you out of those markets ahead of total economic disaster. The complete opposite occurs with some shady junk bond at 15%, where the company disappears overnight. Companies fail for the smallest things, they fail all the time, and the world goes on. A country failing is always geopolitical in nature and market rules about fair play are thrown out the window. This is an intrinsic advantage to forex and global macro tradables in general. I'll talk more about the future risk of national defaults and the utility and primacy of forex as an asset class in the final article. So beyond the obvious consideration, which is to fund a high rate currency against a low rate; what pairs should you trade and how else could you mind carry conditions while holding a long term position? Should you stick to emerging (exotic) currencies against safe-haven currencies? IE, you only short the EURMXN or fund against the CHF? And what indicators/models (from article pt.2) should you use to achieve the safest average price entry? Part 6: Not All Edges are Sharpe Forex is highly volatile, so you may have an advantage in the carry conditions, but suffer a net loss from a poor initial position when you decide to close. A currency with a negative rate could move against you, bigly. Remember, the future holds unlimited risk. But the distinction here (as mentioned in the prior article), is the resilient value in understanding that contracts can have insured risk outcomes. Cost/benefits that are legally settled (from the past) at the point of opening position and at the rollover event, even if brokers tinker with the point payouts, the 'deal' is still there in some form. Here's a poorly kept institutional secret, greed often drives the price in the direction of the higher interest rate currency in a pair over multi-month periods, so this doesn't really matter. Wealthy investors are greedy for higher payouts from emerging countries: where labor is cheaper, new factories spring up all the time, and real estate can be opportune. Part 7: Bat Soup vs the Fortune 500 Old school risk theory in markets argues that high volatility = high risk, but in recent years it has evolved beyond such mathematical explanations, especially as consecutive market challenges broke paradigms. Boomers are slow learners, but they adapt quickly when they start losing money. The subprime crisis cost them big time. And it's true today for our sniffle pandemic. It's simple: On high timeframes across longer-term positions, macroeconomics and geopolitics reign supreme. This isn't just a forex rule. This has been true since the dawn of markets in human society, it is true today, and it will be true in the end. Regulation and interest rates are variables that follow those leaders (not precede). That is, their behavior is shaped by the first two; macro and geopolitics. Think about COVID-19. Look what a few bats and one strange wet market did this world. Macroeconomics and geopolitics produce basic patterns in the human brain that propagate through our societies as two different frequencies: the short wavelength called fear or the long wavelength called security (interpreted in complex ways by players in markets). These are filtered by timezones, languages, civilizational and organizational biases, technology, individual upbringings, and the incumbency of delusion and greed. Nanoseconds, or years later, this all gets represented as a market outcome on a chart. Amazing that people spend so much time analyzing the chaotic patterns of some shit on a floor instead of what was on the menu last night, when they try to understand what went wrong. So if you can understand markets during these strong periods of psychological stress, and during soft periods of algorithm auctioning and market making (call it ranging), then you can sail all the seas and survive all the storms. This is where concepts like seasonality, ATR, regressions, psychological origination, hedging, news trading, major moving averages, and others come into play. In the coming weeks, I'll start to break down the major components of those, and where the center of price gravity and extremes are for these higher timeframe, longer-term positions. So you can find the optimal entry opportunities for longer-term trades, while also taking advantage or hedging against carry conditions. It's time to start charting the course.
Education
by CountofCoins
Bitcoin retesting bottomsFriday was a great day for longs, yet today depending or your leverage it wasn't today so what happen that night and whats gonna happen heading into next week? Well we touched up to the hourly emas and got rejected once, yet bitcoin wanted some more and we tested it again as it ended up form a bearish elliot wave and now we dumped all the way to 7009, very close to 7k, but why did we go there and not get supported by the 7120 support line. Well its hard to say, yet at the place that wick closed and where it is acting as support for now is the closes back in Nov 24-29 where 7023 acted like support before going to 6.5k than rebonding acting like resistance than and flip back to support than resistance than we broke out going to 7.8k. As of writing this we tested 7023 9-10 times, sure we wicked under it, yet most of the 9-10 times we touched it or held the position. Atm it looks like another double bottom and begining to wonder if we creating double bottoms to just pump than start dumping agian, will be interesting to see. So bearish or bullish? Bearish outlook is in favor, yet has some mix views with bullish ideas. Bears - only 6,900ish for the long term downtrend at 14k. only a $100 move and if that line becomes resistance well not good. -Testing the psychological support of the 7k will be a hell of a fight -Below hourly emas Bulls -Still above the long term downtrend line and above 6.5k creating a uptrendish -7023 holding as a support and we touched so many times already could be a buy signal -The hourly emas are rougly at 7153, which we have broken bullish above those prices last week -Longterm downtrend channel top sits at 5400, gets smaller everyday I would recommand staying out of leverage trading cause if we break 7k we could drop to 6.7k, which depending on your leverage you get screwed, yet I'm taking the other end of the sword giving myself more wiggle room to play with incase its a fake out.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by nathanielx9
AUD USD SHORTAUD/USD Has recently had a lot of manipulation price has currently rejected the zone of 0.7100 and closed beneath I believe it's time to fall to the down side. price has currently completed a lower high on the higher timeframes with a clean Trendline rejection including more patterns. I can see price going to the Trendline and the Resistance for one more retest then fail to break above, this will confirm a Lower high on the smaller timeframes and also a lovely Head and Shoulders pattern, currently waiting for confirmations then I will be looking for a set up roughly 100-200 pips to the downside. Please like and follow. Thanks, Kain3e
Short
by Kain3e
AAPL upcoming Earnings - multiple timeframes I have been bullish on AAPL holding shares since just before Xmas at ~$146; TP @$155 was reached about a week ago. However, in the last few weeks concerning the trade tensions and debate with Qualcomm it has been a wait and see strategy. At this time I am strongly considering a bearish Option Credit Spread and will update with specific strike prices. It is worth noting that I have been bearish concerning the major indexes in general for the last two weeks. Seeing the "shutdown" end right near close friday had an effect on the market but I believe 2670 S&P to be a pretty strong resistance. Closeup of Fridays session. Seeing $160 resistance December 31, Jan 18 & 25th. May 2016 low. $90 October 2018 high $235 for Fibonacci on the Daily chart below (edit) I will be bullish again with Short Puts and direct shares once the market sees a retest of about 2400 S&P ; maybe slightly higher . Happy trading my friends; Will update with activity. I do not have the confidence to enter a trade until we see some action Monday premarket.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by blockchainbull33
2