5 Reasons for and against trading forex 🤷♂️They make it look easy, posting lifestyle posts all over your Instagram feed.⠀
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Truth is, that's not real. 😒 Sorry.⠀
With that being said lets break this down into reason you should and shouldn't trade forex.
The reason I'm covering this as a forex idea is I am predominantly a forex trader and made my way to where I am trading forex.
This however does apply to any trading you might be thinking of getting involved with.
So lets get into it👍⠀
FIVE REASONS NOT TO TRADE FOREX
1. Can you afford to lose money?
If you cannot afford to lose money or you are desperate to make money then this really isn't for you.
Only trade with money you can afford to lose. If you are trading with money you really need to survive then your problems are about to get a whole lot bigger!
2. You don't know what you're doing!
We have all been there at some point of not knowing what we are doing.
But before even considering placing a life trade focus on learning and developing strategies.
Focus in on the process and the desired outcome will naturally happen.
We live in a world with so much resource and information at our finger tips.
Go do the research before getting in to deep to quickly.
3. You can't handle it when you're wrong or you're losing.
You will be wrong at times and that's okay.
So long as your winners cover the losses.
You also have to handle and learn that no matter how good of a strategy loser runs and periods of draw down happen to every trader.
No one can be 100% right all the time.
4. You are risk averse.
In any form of trading you are taking a risk.
If you are to risk averse then it's really not for you.
Risk management is key but if you are to averse trading wont fit your personality.
5. You don't have time.
A lot of people say they want this and then say time is a factor stopping them.
That's fine if you either make time and sacrifice or simply forget about trading.
If time is precious and you really don't have time due to important life commitments then focus in on them.
If you spend all your time on PlayStation and Netflix and say you haven't got time. Well then it comes down to lifestyle choice.
We all want trading success few realise how time consuming especially at the start when learning it can be.
There are also 5 good reasons why you should take up trading so lets cover them now.
FIVE REASON TO TRADE FOREX
1. You want freedom
Bored of working 50 hour weeks?
Be your own boss take control of your own destiny.
It's hard work but when achieved you'll wonder why you didn't do it sooner.
Very fulfilling seeing your kids grow up instead of getting in at 7pm as they are tucked up ready for bed. ⠀
No more missing school sports days or the certificates in assembly.⠀
Time for more golf maybe? ⠀
Remember to do it for these reasons and not a big shiny Lambo.
2. You have learned the basics and understand the upsides and downsides.
It's crucial to get educated and then still understand you will have up days and down days in trading.
Don't even trade until you are emotionally sound with all possible outcomes when placing trades.
You understand what is required along with being aware of the positives and the dangers.
3. You can deal with a high risk environment.
You understand the risk at stake but above all else you understand and practise good risk management.
Anxiety, worry, stress, not sleeping, losing money - I could go on.🤦♂️⠀
If you're feeling any of the above you haven't ticked the box on this one.
If you don't feel any of these you on the right path.
4. You are patient and will persevere.
We all want that quick money.
Social media makes us think it's easy
Fast money fast cars, trips to Dubai.
Commitment patience and dedication are the most important traits in trading.
This is not an overnight success game it takes time and will to learn the skills needed.
If you haven't got patience or commitment don't even bother.
So much more to this than just placing a few trades on your tea break.
5. You can stick to a plan and understand probabilities.
Once you have a plan that you have tested and take confidence in, understand probabilities and stick to it.
If you're hoping from one thing to the next with no real time spent on one plan you not got the traits needed.
If you understand probabilities and can let a proven plan with a known edge play out then your on the right track already.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Most fail - the common denominator in the ones that make it work are they don't quit.👍 Simple as that.😎⠀
Trading isn't for everyone. 🤯⠀
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Yes, there are upsides for sure - I touched on them.
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But it can be f**king horrible. 😢⠀
The negative emotions when trading can hit hard.
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That's not how trading 'should' be or feel, but its still a reality for a lot of traders.⠀
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If you're chasing money, if you're desperate to make a quid or three - don't do it.👌⠀
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This isn't the game for you.⠀
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There is simply no room for desperation - it will quickly find you out.⠀
If you can get emotions on point and a proven plan however the upsides are massive.
The key here is knowing to grow and get to where you want to be will take time.
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If you had more time doing whatever you wanted each day, that's pretty cool right?🙌⠀
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Going on holiday whenever you want - like tomorrow? Just because you can.⠀
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Or just chilling in your garden on a nice day ☀️⠀
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Whatever floats your ⛵.⠀
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Time for you? Prioritising your health and fitness because you have never had time before?⠀
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Exactly - the benefits are endless.
But be ready to put the long hard miles in to get there and make sure you're doing it for the right reasons. ⠀
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Also, the cost to start this is like no other 'business' you could go and start.⠀
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No stock, no big start up costs - just you and your initial deposit. ⠀
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However big or small that may be it doesn't matter.⠀
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Learn to trade properly and there are now a wealth of funded trader programmes that can give you the freedom you crave without you having to save up for a lifetime.
Focus on getting your process right and then enjoy the inevitable outcomes.
Thanks for looking and enjoy your weekend.
Darren 🙌
Psychology
4 Steps To Become A Confident TraderIf you lack confidence in ability as a trader I am here to encourage you. Being a forex trader can be hard, but when you learn the steps it takes to become confident in your abilities it can become more simple. In this video, I am going to give you the 4 steps I give to my clients who work with me for 6 weeks in our 1 on 1 sessions.
I'd love to know if you've been struggling in this area and what questions you may have to help you overcome your struggles. Write them below and let's chat.
New To Trading? Avoid These Mistakes!Starting out in trading is definitely an exciting experience but you must be very careful not to make these dangerous mistakes that most beginners make.
While there are many dangerous mistakes for forex newbies to make, I’ve highlighted the two that are subtle enough not to be noticed but can have a big influence on your trading career.
1. Undercapitalization
Insufficient initial capital is the first mistake by beginners, and it usually ends up killing them.
I’ve seen traders, including myself, blow their whole trading account during the first month or week.
Your trading capital is lost even before you have the time to properly learn to trade.
This is what usually happens to new traders:
They don’t have sufficient trading knowledge and experience.
They are not familiar with risk management principles.
They underestimate the risks involved in their setups, which leads to impulsive and often expensive execution.
Another habit I’ve seen among trading newbies is using tight stops on small lots and even smaller trading accounts.
Using small trading lots is not a death knell for newbies’ accounts but using small and tight stops might be.
By using short and tight stops, you increase your chances that the stops will be triggered more frequently and your total loss will consist of many small losses.
Your trading account should be as large as possible in order to correspond with market conditions and provide the necessary flexibility in making trade decisions. Position size matters, too!
Like any business, you have to make sure you are adequately funded. Don’t try to lower risk by only depositing a portion of your available trading capital.
Fund yourself right but use proper money and risk management!
2. Overtrading
Overtrading is a process of buying and selling Forex pairs, stocks, or other securities excessively. It involves trading all-day without stopping and eventually, making ineffective decisions that lead to financial ruin.
Considering the typical market activity, it’s easy to lose half or even all your trading capital with this. This problem is sometimes directly connected to boredom, the thrill of making money, or lack of education and guidance.
Your trading capital is used to earn money. You should treat each dollar like a newborn baby.
Your first and foremost responsibility is to protect it. If you lose it, you have less to help you earn money.
Have you ever made any of these mistakes? Please share your experience in the comments below. I’m sure we’d all be interested in possibly learning from each other.
What additional advice would you give to a newbie trader?
📌Position Sizing AND Stress CurveTry to find where your current stress level is on the diagram.
If you are a trader and already have taken position , how much is your position size % ? Do you think there is a correlation between your stress level and your current position size , then subsequently your performance ?
If you are in red level, now is a good time to seek some serious change. Trading in itself is a very stressful job, especially when we are not proficient in the psychology of trading and do not pay much attention to the important rules of risk and capital management. maybe Slipping only one 1% of these rules has terrible consequences for us.
WHAT IS STRESS (in general)?
Everyone experiences stress at different points in their life, and in small doses it is essential to motivate us. Too much stress, though, can be overwhelming and leave us burnt-out, filled with anxiety or anger, and unable to act. Stress is a feeling of emotional or physical tension. It can come from any event or thought that makes you feel frustrated, angry, or nervous. Stress is your body's reaction to a challenge or demand. In short bursts, stress can be positive, such as when it helps you avoid danger or meet a deadline
Stress causes wear and tear of our bodies due to demands made by our life. The Public Health Services estimate that there are one million premature deaths in America each year. In this, 75% of the people were suffering from stress-related disorders. Americans are suffering from various problems. The number of Americans suffering is high in number. The various problems are:
30 million blood vessel diseases
1 million heart attacks
8 million cases of ulcers
12 million cases of alcoholism
WHAT DOES IT FEEL LIKE?
Problem stress can manifest in many different ways:
wanting to relax but being unable to let go
feeling prolonged anxiety or worry
feeling depressed and unmotivated
sleep problems
increased use of alcohol / drugs to self-medicate
Stress can also cause a variety of physical symptoms:
change in appetite
tightness and pain in shoulders, neck and back
increased use of alcohol / drugs to self medicate
digestive problems
autoimmune problems (eczema, arthritis, ulcers)
Trading-Specific Stresses:
In the above paragraphs, we have seen the different stress subsequences in our social life. But there are also many stressful situations in trading that traders perceive.
Trading is inherently a job full of anticipated and unforeseen risks. .Each of which can cause stress on the trader and affect his performance!
Even Being idle and not doing anything can also be stressful. The fact that you could make money if you were present in the market is itself very stressful. You can watch your position double overnight sometimes if you don’t do anything. Similarly, you may sit on a losing trade while it goes down in value. This loss situation is stressful, which is a result of doing nothing.
As a trader ,we trade the risk to make money , it sounds very exiting and enjoying when we can control our risk and profit ! there is a tiny distinction and span between successful traders and unsuccessful traders ! When they can manage their position size and risk/reward in such a way that they can have the most profit and the least loss with maximum performance.
abnormal Stress limits our ability to handle a large amount of information in trading. Which is why we are not successful most of the times. For some traders who use to trade with big position size( more than1%- 5% of their total net) , stress is equivalent to losing. If they suffer a lose In these cases, because a large amount of position is involved and it is difficult to control it can be the Biggest in the speculative loss, which is a trading-specific stress. Since losses are unacceptable for many, they tend not to close their position in the hope of recovering their losses , so their losses will get bigger and bigger . The psychological impact of a large loss upon an average trader can be devastating, because Daniel Kahneman in the book of Thinking, Fast and Slow by , he says that for human- being the impact of any loss is bigger than impact of equivalent profit !
-In a pessimistic scenario ,Suppose you open an average of 10 positions a day, and if all your positions are closed at a loss
>>With a risk of 1% per trade; You do not lose about 10% at the end of the day
>>But with 5% per trade, you lose more than 37% at the end of the day
>>And with 10%,you lose more than 60% of whole capital after 10 unsuccessful trade per day . So in the same proportion; Size position can greatly affect our stress level and disrupt our performance!
In this situations, our brain can no longer make any right decisions and emotions overwhelm us especially when we are at a loss, and then the likelihood of committing human error is greatly increased.
Conclusion
So in this article, we can figure out what can greatly affect our stress in trading is the amount of volume in a trade especialy in perpetual future markets ,
Why does a trader increase the position size with thoughtless, recklessness and carelessness, maybe it is due to ignorance or maybe it is high self-confidence.
Anyway, if one can 100% predict the future trend of a trade, one might be able to earn hundreds or thousands or even millions of dollars in a short time with the Leverage X100, but the problem is that we are in the trading and financial markets with probabilities. We are dealing and no one can predict even 10% of the next moves with confidence. So It's so important to control the exact amount of your risk ,loss and possible profit in each trade by choosing the right amount for position size and then the risk /reward ratio.
Every person reacts to stressful events differently. What might be stressful for one person might not be stressful for another one or maybe a pleasurable game . All these together produce fear and anxiety in people.
The purpose of this article is not to let you know various types of stresses in trading , It was more about the stress of position size in particular and how it can affect your trading style.
But the result being in high stress level for all is loss in trading. You can at least now realize how dominating stress can be. In coming articles, we will help you protect from its effects.
You can self-evaluate yourself on parameters like stress susceptibility, stress exposure and stress protection.
In general, we will try to reduce general stress and trading specific stress. Later we will also discuss stress prevention techniques, relaxation procedures, and how not to allow stress to affect your trading performance.
(The reason that inspired me to write this article was mostly because of a friend who is a trader and he had invested in Luna and was severely bankrupt and now more than his financial problems he is struggling with a lot mental and psychological problems , and was asked me for help.
Maybe it was his bad luck but his problem was when He was optimistic for a immediate recovery after any Luna's downfall , he traded in a large position and with every further reduction he bought again at a lower level in the hope of a return to compensate, but we all saw how far Luna decreased . although this strategy( DCA ) may work well sometimes , but if he had considered the position size and risk measurement , he didn't lose more than 200k overnight.)
Source: lifehack.org- wetalktrade.com- phil-hills.com
Three pillars of trading success 📈💲It's time for my mid week educational post.
Today I want to talk about the three pillars needed by all traders for success in the markets.
This isn't just the forex market either this applies to trading all financial markets.
Be it forex, crypto or stocks, so lets get into the the three pillars of success.
PILLAR NUMER ONE- STRATEGY
You MUST have an edge before entering the markets.
When will you enter the market?
When will you close?
What % per trade will you risk?
What pairs will you trade?
What timeframes will you trade?
If you don't have any answers to the above you are entering the markets blind and it will end in tears.
In trading, edge is your ability to select trades that perform better than random.
You can think of edge as the process used to generate and execute entry and exit signals.
Do not enter the markets until you are working a strategy with a proven edge.
The stronger your edge, the more profitable you’ll be.
PILLAR NUMBER TWO- RISK MANAGEMENT
We can't avoid the white elephant in the room on average 80% of trader lose money or fail in the markets.
Some say its even more and you will become one of the stats if risk management isn't applied to your trading.
Some of the reasons losses like these exist in trading is down to the fact that aspiring traders don’t put any thought into their risk management tolerance.
We only ever see the upside when we start out and many never do anything to protect themselves from potential losses.
If you never made any money as a trader before or entered the markets before ask yourself the question below before starting out.
How much money am I comfortable losing?
Your first priority with trading is to stay in the game
So manage your risk per trade and total risk at anyone time.
Understand probability and ensure you are comfortable with your maximum exposure at any one time.
Understand the maximal draw down in your testing when finding your edge.
That way it will help you see what a potential losing run you could experience.
PILLAR NUMBER THREE- TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
We need good trading psychology to keep a balanced mind whilst trading, this stops your emotions leading the trade.
The trade outcome cannot be controlled and you MUST detah yourself from each trade outcome.
You will know when your trading emotions are nailed on when you do not 'FEEL ' anything when trading.
If you have 'emtions' with your trades or when trading simply reduce your risk further.
Two emotions that need particular attention are GREED and FEAR.
You need discipline in controlling these two emotions or you are going to end up making losses as a trader.
We all been there we make a few profits confidence kicks in and then greed before you know it your in whole world of pain.
We all be there at some point with fear to and not executing trades due to a fear being in our trading game say from a poor run of form.
Emotions will always be there we are emotional beings, but they will need controlling in order for you to be a successful trader.
Practice developing the emotional control needed to trade successfully.
FINAL THOUHGHTS
Trading requires 100% commitment most see it as a hobby to start with but this can be costly hobby if commitment to trading is lacking.
The sole reason most get into trading is to make money. One purpose of a business is to make money.
Treat trading as a business at the end of the day it's your personal money that's on the line.
Every trader needs to have a disciplined approach to the markets. Following these three steps will help you.
In order to be a successful trader and run a profitable account, it is essential that you have these three pillars in your trading.
Thanks for taking the time to read my idea.
Darren 👍
Confirmation bias in trading, why 99% crowd drain deposits?A lot of material has been written on the topic of psychology in trading. Especially often you can stumble upon unpretentious articles on the Internet, where the author, like any self-respecting “psychoanalyst”, is trying to talk on the topic: “Why are deposits being drained”.
And everywhere, as if according to one learned pattern, they write about fear, about greed, about the fact that one should not sit out losses, one should allow profits to grow, one should put stop orders, observe risks, keep a diary, work according to the system and other banality, oh which everyone has heard.
Our idea is that in trading there can be only two options - either you know what you are doing and then just systematically work on your trading setups, or you don’t know and just play “guess the tune”. Unfortunately, most traders are bright representatives of the second category.
A typical beginner's decision-making scheme: open any instrument, choose a “convenient” timeframe, try to draw a line, throw in a couple of indicators, and then sit and carefully watch the price... Many people call this self-hypnosis “market analysis”. And then something happens - the price goes down sharply and we begin to "see" the entry point for the purchase - now the price will return, it always rolls back. Click on BUY, choose a fatter volume in order to earn more - the deal is open. We sit, tremble, wait for the price to rise and... oh my God, the market gives us 2 points of profit! We cut profit immediately. We repeat this operation N times, and when the market does not give immediate profit, we average it by the same volume.
The account sometimes goes into a small drawdown, but this is not terrible, in most cases the “system” works like a Swiss watch. Having calculated the profit, we already imagine ourselves as millionaires and market gurus. But suddenly the moment comes when the system gives a small failure - we see a drawdown of half an account, the price continues to fall down ... What to do? We go to analytical sites, feverishly read reviews, especially lingering on those that say that the market is oversold, somewhere near a strong level, we are waiting for a reversal. Having calmed down a bit, we look at the sentiment and see that 85% of traders are also buying ... phew, the majority cannot be wrong!
After reading the analytics, looking at the sentiment, we return to the chart. Looking at it from a different angle, we make an expert opinion - no, it definitely won’t go lower, now let’s turn around. We add to the rest of the margin and, with bated breath, look at the monitor. And then, unfortunately, the price stubbornly ignores analysts, the market goes further down, and our trades are closed by stop loss. There is no limit to disappointment, how is it, everyone predicted a reversal, and the chart is moving further along the trend!
This is the so-called confirmation bias. When we act not according to a pre-arranged plan, but for good luck, we are looking for confirmation of our innocence in every possible way and completely ignore the opposite information.
From this, the main conclusion is - if you are not sure, do not play! We need to be open to the perception of all the information available, and not just the one that “suits” us. Only a systematic approach can defeat cognitive distortions!
How to save your nerves and make trading enjoyable?!How to save your nerves and make trading enjoyable?!
What to do if you have already decided to embark on the path of trading, but are facing psychological problems. First of all, let's identify these complexities and reiterate them:
1. Fear of entering a position. Even when the formation being traded is familiar to you, and the entry seems obvious, you look at the candle going up, but you still cannot force yourself to press the BUY / SELL button. The market goes in the expected direction. The mood is spoiled today.
2. Fear of being in a deal. You made an entry according to the trading system, provided for all the nuances, placed a stop order, but the sensations of a possible loss of money are so unpleasant that they make you drop everything, deviate from the plan and, in the end, close the deal.
3. Bad mood, irritability from a deal closed in the negative. You skillfully entered the position, checked the entry on the trading system, at first everything was in order, but catch the stop loss.
Familiar? So know. These emotional reactions are typical for those who have just begun to connect their path with trading. Medicines for these "diseases" are also known:
A. Formalize your trading system. If the deal matches it, enter. Why is it so easy? The fact is that in the long term, a high-quality trading system has a statistical advantage. And if you follow it correctly, then a positive result is almost guaranteed.
B. Start trading with those amounts and those risks that are insignificant for the deposit. But not a demo account. If you are responsible for small amounts, then the risks at first will be insignificant. But the emotions will be quite similar. Mistakes made at first will teach you to do the right thing. But the fee for this will be much lower than the merged deposit. Gradually increase the amount of risk as you grow in experience.
Q. Periods of negative values in a position will have to come to terms. If you are confident in your actions and the trade corresponds to the trading system, know how to wait and hold the position. This is the nature of this profession. After all, even if something goes wrong, then you are insured by a powerful medicine - a stop loss.
G. And, finally, the last. To get rid of psychological fears and trade easily - you need to trade. Psychological stability will come with experience and professionalism, when you get a feel for the trading system and get your hands on trades.
Good luck with your quality deals!
ACBThe last stage: Panic
Stage 3: Panic
As the bull quickly turns into a bear, investors may become desperate and start panicking. All traces of confidence are now gone and investors are now looking to minimize losses. Some spirits will be crushed entirely, leaving them to wonder if the market will recover at all.
👁️🗨️ You See what YOU WANT to See 🧠Further to our idea:
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In other, more simple words: We See What We Want to See
Obi-Wan Kenobi once advised Luke Skywalker to not trust his eyes, because “your eyes can deceive you.” Most of us can recall an instance from our own non-Jedi lives when these words rang true. Think of a time when your eyes saw what they wished to see: a person you were thinking about on a busy street, a heart-shaped pebble you were looking for on the beach.
This phenomenon, called motivated perception, has been explored in psychological research for decades. Indeed, the world as we conceive it in our awareness is not exactly an accurate representation of what it truly is. Our perception is often biased, selective, and malleable.
Even our desires can affect what we see by impacting the way we process visual information.
IN TRADING:
We see what we want to see. You guys can see a million different ideas but your eye is just a gateway to the brain and that's where the problems start:
You will See what YOU WANT to see..and you will act accordingly.
Will make a small video to elaborate on this with some tips on how you can protect yourselves from your own EYES!
One Love,
the FXSHRINK
👁️🗨️Watch the video, i explain in the most simple way how you can stop letting your eyes (and brain basically) fool you 🧠
Bull? Bear? Swan?
The chart:
Shows an index average for SPX, NAS and DOW using rescaled CFD and futures prices.
Indicator is a momentum oscillator (midline) with an envelope much like a Bollinger band.
The paradox:
The consensus is the chart is a picture of 'doom' (as bearish as it gets).
At the same time, every trader in the chat room was bullish on the upcoming 12 hours. Not a single bear.
The assumption that recent outcomes will be repeated is also called "The Hot Hand" .
Both chart and traders refer to the same asset class. The chart accurately describes what traders experienced. Same information, but divergent conclusions and sentiment.
Why the gap?
One contributing factor is likely the qualitative difference between looking at a chart, and trading that same market in real time.
Research shows that when we "experience" outcomes ourselves we pay more attention to the most recent, frequent and impactful outcomes. This does not happen if we get the same information on a chart, from a discussion, or the news.)
In his book "The Black Swan", Nassim Taleb attributes peoples 'black swan blindness' (pp.77) to never *experiencing* an event, even if the information is available in some descriptive format (like a chart). There is a similar discussion in the chapter on rare events (ch.30) in Kahneman's book "Thinking fast. and slow" .
Lastly, lab studies from economics, finance and psychology provide data for both predictive and descriptive models. These models can be used to predict how personal experience with risk will result in different sentiment that a simple description of the same information. Some of this research is summarized in a Psych-Science paper at: pure.mpg.de
Notes:
This way they can share the same USD scale and
are weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms. (For weights see: www.barchart.com ).
In basketball there is a belief that a player can be on a hot-streak and more likely to score. Despite the compelling belief, statistical studies show it to be false. The same can be said for consecutive sessions in the equity markets. On a whole the market is largely efficient thanks to our relentless effort to remove every last inefficiency.
FOMO - Analysis from a Trading PsychologistFOMO.
Fear of Missing Out.
I can feel FOMO’s omnipresence in the trading world right now. We have seen some large career changing moves in Commodities & Futures as of late. Extend the lookback time a few years and the Cryptocurrency universe is surely included.
I decided to turn to my favorite trading psychologists, Brett Steenbarger,PhD. Brett has been in the trading game since the late 1970’s and his Nov 21’ speech on Trading FOMO piqued my interest. Below is a summary of what I took away from it, and some preventative ailments attributed to Brett’s psychological evidence-based outcomes.
FOMO is a P&L Killer! At its core FOMO is a fear. The problem is not that we missed the trade, it’s that our brains perceive that missed trade as a threat to our future, our success, our reputation. When humans are afraid of something, or see a threat, it produces anxiety. This fear takes blood away from the part of the brain where higher level thinking takes place and sends it to the part that impulsive thinking lives. There WILL be poor decision making under the influence of anxiety. The key to solving this issue is to take the threat out of the situation.
Solutions:
Taking a break from the screen is healthy but it is not a long-term fix. Brett explains how to train in exposure therapy (His presentation explains this in greater depth.) Slow breathing and visualization are more adept at battling FOMO. If you can visualize a calming place or situation and pair it with that fear, daily practice and dedication will prevent blood flow to the impulse zone. Gradually, when FOMO comes around, you will experience feelings of safety. Combined with expanding your time of reference, understanding, and acknowledging FOMO will make those events look like potholes on a long highway.
Missing a trade is unfortunate, but will it end my career? No. Will buying at the top, and then being so irate that I add to a losing trade and forgo stop orders end my career? It might. Will I be thinking clearly on my next trade with a fresh mistake permeating my thoughts? No.
The best motivation to avoid FOMO is to develop emotional hate towards the negative consequences of it. In the fullness of time, the desire to avoid negative outcomes becomes self-reinforcing with repetition and therefore cements as an internal priority. This works across the board in other life scenarios as well.
Tapping into other motivations besides P&L is one that really hit home with me as well. Brett dives into the desire to learn and grow as a greater motivator than just P&L alone. This addition will create a dual purpose to each trade. You are diversifying your outcome! If you come away from a trade with a negative P&L, but with a positive learning experience, you are building your Learning Capital. With time under this premise, your Learning Capital will be indistinguishable from your monetary statement.
Instead of tying your value as a trader strictly to your P&L, tie your value to your consistency and risk management. The magnitude of your P&L is nothing without consistency. Risk management begets larger positions, lower drawdowns, and an overall better quality of work life.
A Day comes with myriad experiences. Create a diversified life with people and activities that fulfill you outside of trading and your trading will improve. Reminding yourself daily of this is important.
Tying all of this together is the practice of keeping a daily ABCD Journal.
A - Activating Event – What got you upset? - Missing the trade in this case.
B - Beliefs about the event – Little voice in your head – Why is this upsetting to you? “Other people are getting ahead of me, I’m not as good as they are”
C - Consequences from the event – How does negative thinking affect your subsequent trading? I’m so upset about missing the opportunity I go ahead and miss the next one!
Becoming proficient in ABC will allow you to recognize the triggering event in real time. You begin to identify the negative beliefs and become a pro at understanding the magnitude of the consequences. You can change the pattern of your behavior because the consequences are so front and center.
D - Disputation- You are talking back at that negative thinking. How would you talk to someone you care about who is in that situation? Mentoring a teammate that missed a big play involves constructively lifting them up and helping them learn from it with a comforting tone. You aren’t going to beat them up.
I welcome all feedback and am also here if you want to chat about a particular experience. Happy Trading!
-Paul Wankmueller, CMT
Blue Line Futures Director of Content & Education
4️⃣ Trading habits that have to go 👋We've all done it.
At some point in your trading journeys bad habits set in.
Here is my four trading habits you've got to kick in order to stay profitable.
1. Overtrading
We all been there with this one.
We think we have to be in the market all the time.
We don't and its okay to be flat at times.
No strategy should have excessive trade volume.
More time in the markets the more chance of catching a cold.
Overtrading can happen when we also start revenge trading.
You've caught some losses and your trying to get it all back.
Don't overtrading combined with revenge trading is a no no. Take a break.
Trading with no strategy or system
Should never be in the markets with out a plan or system.
More importantly no trader should be entering markets with out a proven edge.
Back test and forward test your strategy and make sure you are entering markets with a proven plan.
Psychology wise it makes trading so much easier to deal with.
No plan will lead to nothing but stress and losses.
No stop loss
Trading with no stop loss is biggest sin of all.
It's just not worth risking huge amounts of your trading capital on the line.
One big crazy move in this uncertain world could do damage.
Plus how can you develop a proven plan if stop loss is not included.
Also moving your stop loss should not be part of your trading.
As you've just altered any strategy being trading into the unknown category.
No risk management
So I've mentioned stop loss but that is only one element of risk management and it doesn't stop there.
Risk management includes many aspects you'll need to consider.
That includes position sizing relative to your capital size.
The psychology behind losing runs and how they are factored into your trading plan.
Work to set and proven trading rules as part of your risk management.
Be sure not to add to losing positions.
Know when you are wrong and move on to the next.
Failure to follow risk management means you will essentially be gambling.
Be realistic in expected returns is a big factor in risk management.
Sticking to all of the above and not allowing these habits to enter your trading will ensure you keep that trading account growing.
Thanks for taking the time to read my idea.
Darren 👍
1D timeframe market structure Why is it important to understand the structure of the market?
Because decisions to buy or sell are made through referencing current price against previous areas which caused significant emotional response, in particular those areas which led to regret of missing out on the opportunity, or those areas which trapped traders in losing positions.
LET'S GET REAL: Fear of Losing! Hey Traders,
Most traders battle it. I myself had to progress past this in order to achieve consistent returns trading the markets. It is seen as one of the hardest challenges to pass in terms of emotional discipline. Understanding yourself better so you can make decisions in a calm, composed and consistent manner is crucial to success.
Today I wanted to touch on that. I wanted to talk about the fear of losing what spurred from my fear of losing, how I progressed through it (it still creeps in from time to time). Hopefully you can take from my story and how it improved your trading or how it can help you progress past that fear of losing.
If anyone has any questions or maybe some other stories in the way they progressed through a fear of losing or a fear of being a failure, please feel free to share in the comments and I'll get back to you as soon as possible.
Have a fantastic trading week!
Backtesting USDCAD looking for setupsI am backtesting setups but what I am specifically looking for is similarites in the formations of my setups.
It is very easy to hindsight trade and leave your trading desk happy but it is about having setups that you can see in real-time markets.
The habit of hidsight trading 'with no intent of real-time application' is one you must break through mindset shifting (replacing with a new habit and then repeating that new habit constantly to switch it over from the old habit).
What are your thoughts about having 'hindsight setups' vs 'real-time setups'?
Let me know in the comments or DM me because I am interested to know!
Ethereum Name ServiceEveryone's favorite Airdrop/DAO/NFT/Web3 functionality ENS has been catching a decent bid amid current market conditions.
Up about 90% from the lows while the majority of the market is back to their lows, I'd say ENS is doing pretty well.
From a point of value/ R:R, and also based on popularity, utility + sustainable future, ENS is in a great place currently at face value for a swing/mid-term hold (IMO).
Recent News
ENS 3 & 4 digit number names have become quite popular recently creating a buzz around the NFT ecosystem, most notably with BAYC/MAYC members buying the # that corresponds to their NFT #.
Adding to the above, with the new otherside deeds going live, ALL ENS numbers from 1-10k & 10.1 - 20k are taken. Quite an influx of cashflow is no doubt having an effect on the price of the underlying token as I believe a portion of the funds go towards the DAO and the community handles it from there, making for a fundamentally bullish case IMO.
I myself have been trying to snipe notable names that are expiring soon . Think of it like buying the copyright to your name - no one else can have the same name as you, and if they want to, then theyll have to pay you at your price. I believe ^this^ portion of the analysis is where the greatest value will come from; I'll leave you to connect the dots and figure out the rest.
ENS also recently broke the threshold of 1,000,000 names.
Moving along, looking at price as a whole, its evident to me that ENS has went thru a full market cycle and is in the last phase. Think of the famous Market Psychology Chart.
Many airdrop tokens & brand new low-midcap IDO tokens tend to go through this Market Psychology M as I like to call it at a much faster rate than more sustainable tokens. I believe I have a few analysis on that topic that I'll link below.
Conclusion
Looking at all the factors mentioned and from a probabilistic view:
Is it possible for ENS to make it back to $40 given there is a rise in popularity again?
YES
Is it possible due to the current market cycle phase for ENS to make it back to at least $40 without any other factors?
MAYBE
Can ENS fall back to lows where we see a fourth bottom and likely fall even further creating a much worse R:R ?
UNLIKELY (NO)
Based on current strength relative to the market, can ENS possibly continue even for a short while breaking the next resistance level?
YES
Welp, thats enough for me to look for an entry and potentially hop into the next trend. ENS names becoming hot again is definitely something I see happening; everyone already has their twitter usernames as their ENS, so what could really go wrong by buying a name you like, or even investing in the project that facilitates this?
Educational Post about Defining zones : Read the CaptionIf you have been led to believe that the prices move depending on the number of buyers and the number of sellers; if the number of buyers is greater than the number of sellers, prices go up, & if the number of sellers is greater than the number of buyers, prices go down. Then you would be wrong...
The number of sellers or buyers is not what moves the price. What if one seller is doing all the selling to thousands of buyers? The price will go down. The answer to our question is that it is the degree of aggression of the buyers or the sellers and the volume of order-flow they submit is what moves the price. That's what creates the imbalance between buyers and sellers. Your goal as a trader is not to try to catch tops and bottoms that would be absolutely crazy. Your goal as a trader is to find suboptimal zones or in other word good deals.
What is a Optimal Zone?
A zone in which price has already a trend defined by a rally or drop. Most of the time it is a breakout and pullback structure close to a very strong supply and demand level. Most important is that:
Buy optimal zones are close to a macro buy zone In other words price is cheap = good deal to buy.
Sell optimal zones are close to a macro sell zone. In other words price is expensive= good deal to sell.
What is a Sub-optimal Zone?
Buy sub-optimal zones are close to a macro sell zone In other words price is expensive = bad deal to buy.
Sell sub-optimal zones are close to a macro buy zone. In other words price is cheap= bad deal to sell.
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