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Psychology

👁️‍🗨️ You See what YOU WANT to See 🧠Further to our idea: : In other, more simple words: We See What We Want to See Obi-Wan Kenobi once advised Luke Skywalker to not trust his eyes, because “your eyes can deceive you.” Most of us can recall an instance from our own non-Jedi lives when these words rang true. Think of a time when your eyes saw what they wished to see: a person you were thinking about on a busy street, a heart-shaped pebble you were looking for on the beach. This phenomenon, called motivated perception, has been explored in psychological research for decades. Indeed, the world as we conceive it in our awareness is not exactly an accurate representation of what it truly is. Our perception is often biased, selective, and malleable. Even our desires can affect what we see by impacting the way we process visual information. IN TRADING: We see what we want to see. You guys can see a million different ideas but your eye is just a gateway to the brain and that's where the problems start: You will See what YOU WANT to see..and you will act accordingly. Will make a small video to elaborate on this with some tips on how you can protect yourselves from your own EYES! One Love, the FXSHRINK 👁️‍🗨️Watch the video, i explain in the most simple way how you can stop letting your eyes (and brain basically) fool you 🧠
FTX:GMTPERPEducation
by FX_Professor
8
Bull? Bear? Swan? The chart: Shows an index average for SPX, NAS and DOW using rescaled CFD and futures prices. Indicator is a momentum oscillator (midline) with an envelope much like a Bollinger band. The paradox: The consensus is the chart is a picture of 'doom' (as bearish as it gets). At the same time, every trader in the chat room was bullish on the upcoming 12 hours. Not a single bear. The assumption that recent outcomes will be repeated is also called "The Hot Hand" . Both chart and traders refer to the same asset class. The chart accurately describes what traders experienced. Same information, but divergent conclusions and sentiment. Why the gap? One contributing factor is likely the qualitative difference between looking at a chart, and trading that same market in real time. Research shows that when we "experience" outcomes ourselves we pay more attention to the most recent, frequent and impactful outcomes. This does not happen if we get the same information on a chart, from a discussion, or the news.) In his book "The Black Swan", Nassim Taleb attributes peoples 'black swan blindness' (pp.77) to never *experiencing* an event, even if the information is available in some descriptive format (like a chart). There is a similar discussion in the chapter on rare events (ch.30) in Kahneman's book "Thinking fast. and slow" . Lastly, lab studies from economics, finance and psychology provide data for both predictive and descriptive models. These models can be used to predict how personal experience with risk will result in different sentiment that a simple description of the same information. Some of this research is summarized in a Psych-Science paper at: pure.mpg.de Notes: This way they can share the same USD scale and are weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms. (For weights see: www.barchart.com ). In basketball there is a belief that a player can be on a hot-streak and more likely to score. Despite the compelling belief, statistical studies show it to be false. The same can be said for consecutive sessions in the equity markets. On a whole the market is largely efficient thanks to our relentless effort to remove every last inefficiency.
FX:SPX500
by gb50k
2
FOMO - Analysis from a Trading PsychologistFOMO. Fear of Missing Out. I can feel FOMO’s omnipresence in the trading world right now. We have seen some large career changing moves in Commodities & Futures as of late. Extend the lookback time a few years and the Cryptocurrency universe is surely included. I decided to turn to my favorite trading psychologists, Brett Steenbarger,PhD. Brett has been in the trading game since the late 1970’s and his Nov 21’ speech on Trading FOMO piqued my interest. Below is a summary of what I took away from it, and some preventative ailments attributed to Brett’s psychological evidence-based outcomes. FOMO is a P&L Killer! At its core FOMO is a fear. The problem is not that we missed the trade, it’s that our brains perceive that missed trade as a threat to our future, our success, our reputation. When humans are afraid of something, or see a threat, it produces anxiety. This fear takes blood away from the part of the brain where higher level thinking takes place and sends it to the part that impulsive thinking lives. There WILL be poor decision making under the influence of anxiety. The key to solving this issue is to take the threat out of the situation. Solutions: Taking a break from the screen is healthy but it is not a long-term fix. Brett explains how to train in exposure therapy (His presentation explains this in greater depth.) Slow breathing and visualization are more adept at battling FOMO. If you can visualize a calming place or situation and pair it with that fear, daily practice and dedication will prevent blood flow to the impulse zone. Gradually, when FOMO comes around, you will experience feelings of safety. Combined with expanding your time of reference, understanding, and acknowledging FOMO will make those events look like potholes on a long highway. Missing a trade is unfortunate, but will it end my career? No. Will buying at the top, and then being so irate that I add to a losing trade and forgo stop orders end my career? It might. Will I be thinking clearly on my next trade with a fresh mistake permeating my thoughts? No. The best motivation to avoid FOMO is to develop emotional hate towards the negative consequences of it. In the fullness of time, the desire to avoid negative outcomes becomes self-reinforcing with repetition and therefore cements as an internal priority. This works across the board in other life scenarios as well. Tapping into other motivations besides P&L is one that really hit home with me as well. Brett dives into the desire to learn and grow as a greater motivator than just P&L alone. This addition will create a dual purpose to each trade. You are diversifying your outcome! If you come away from a trade with a negative P&L, but with a positive learning experience, you are building your Learning Capital. With time under this premise, your Learning Capital will be indistinguishable from your monetary statement. Instead of tying your value as a trader strictly to your P&L, tie your value to your consistency and risk management. The magnitude of your P&L is nothing without consistency. Risk management begets larger positions, lower drawdowns, and an overall better quality of work life. A Day comes with myriad experiences. Create a diversified life with people and activities that fulfill you outside of trading and your trading will improve. Reminding yourself daily of this is important. Tying all of this together is the practice of keeping a daily ABCD Journal. A - Activating Event – What got you upset? - Missing the trade in this case. B - Beliefs about the event – Little voice in your head – Why is this upsetting to you? “Other people are getting ahead of me, I’m not as good as they are” C - Consequences from the event – How does negative thinking affect your subsequent trading? I’m so upset about missing the opportunity I go ahead and miss the next one! Becoming proficient in ABC will allow you to recognize the triggering event in real time. You begin to identify the negative beliefs and become a pro at understanding the magnitude of the consequences. You can change the pattern of your behavior because the consequences are so front and center. D - Disputation- You are talking back at that negative thinking. How would you talk to someone you care about who is in that situation? Mentoring a teammate that missed a big play involves constructively lifting them up and helping them learn from it with a comforting tone. You aren’t going to beat them up. I welcome all feedback and am also here if you want to chat about a particular experience. Happy Trading! -Paul Wankmueller, CMT Blue Line Futures Director of Content & Education
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by CMT_Association
60
4️⃣ Trading habits that have to go 👋We've all done it. At some point in your trading journeys bad habits set in. Here is my four trading habits you've got to kick in order to stay profitable. 1. Overtrading We all been there with this one. We think we have to be in the market all the time. We don't and its okay to be flat at times. No strategy should have excessive trade volume. More time in the markets the more chance of catching a cold. Overtrading can happen when we also start revenge trading. You've caught some losses and your trying to get it all back. Don't overtrading combined with revenge trading is a no no. Take a break. Trading with no strategy or system Should never be in the markets with out a plan or system. More importantly no trader should be entering markets with out a proven edge. Back test and forward test your strategy and make sure you are entering markets with a proven plan. Psychology wise it makes trading so much easier to deal with. No plan will lead to nothing but stress and losses. No stop loss Trading with no stop loss is biggest sin of all. It's just not worth risking huge amounts of your trading capital on the line. One big crazy move in this uncertain world could do damage. Plus how can you develop a proven plan if stop loss is not included. Also moving your stop loss should not be part of your trading. As you've just altered any strategy being trading into the unknown category. No risk management So I've mentioned stop loss but that is only one element of risk management and it doesn't stop there. Risk management includes many aspects you'll need to consider. That includes position sizing relative to your capital size. The psychology behind losing runs and how they are factored into your trading plan. Work to set and proven trading rules as part of your risk management. Be sure not to add to losing positions. Know when you are wrong and move on to the next. Failure to follow risk management means you will essentially be gambling. Be realistic in expected returns is a big factor in risk management. Sticking to all of the above and not allowing these habits to enter your trading will ensure you keep that trading account growing. Thanks for taking the time to read my idea. Darren 👍
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
1
LET'S GET REAL: Fear of Losing! Hey Traders, Most traders battle it. I myself had to progress past this in order to achieve consistent returns trading the markets. It is seen as one of the hardest challenges to pass in terms of emotional discipline. Understanding yourself better so you can make decisions in a calm, composed and consistent manner is crucial to success. Today I wanted to touch on that. I wanted to talk about the fear of losing what spurred from my fear of losing, how I progressed through it (it still creeps in from time to time). Hopefully you can take from my story and how it improved your trading or how it can help you progress past that fear of losing. If anyone has any questions or maybe some other stories in the way they progressed through a fear of losing or a fear of being a failure, please feel free to share in the comments and I'll get back to you as soon as possible. Have a fantastic trading week!
Education
by the5erstrading
6
Backtesting USDCAD looking for setupsI am backtesting setups but what I am specifically looking for is similarites in the formations of my setups. It is very easy to hindsight trade and leave your trading desk happy but it is about having setups that you can see in real-time markets. The habit of hidsight trading 'with no intent of real-time application' is one you must break through mindset shifting (replacing with a new habit and then repeating that new habit constantly to switch it over from the old habit). What are your thoughts about having 'hindsight setups' vs 'real-time setups'? Let me know in the comments or DM me because I am interested to know!
by UnknownUnicorn5823541
Ethereum Name ServiceEveryone's favorite Airdrop/DAO/NFT/Web3 functionality ENS has been catching a decent bid amid current market conditions. Up about 90% from the lows while the majority of the market is back to their lows, I'd say ENS is doing pretty well. From a point of value/ R:R, and also based on popularity, utility + sustainable future, ENS is in a great place currently at face value for a swing/mid-term hold (IMO). Recent News ENS 3 & 4 digit number names have become quite popular recently creating a buzz around the NFT ecosystem, most notably with BAYC/MAYC members buying the # that corresponds to their NFT #. Adding to the above, with the new otherside deeds going live, ALL ENS numbers from 1-10k & 10.1 - 20k are taken. Quite an influx of cashflow is no doubt having an effect on the price of the underlying token as I believe a portion of the funds go towards the DAO and the community handles it from there, making for a fundamentally bullish case IMO. I myself have been trying to snipe notable names that are expiring soon . Think of it like buying the copyright to your name - no one else can have the same name as you, and if they want to, then theyll have to pay you at your price. I believe ^this^ portion of the analysis is where the greatest value will come from; I'll leave you to connect the dots and figure out the rest. ENS also recently broke the threshold of 1,000,000 names. Moving along, looking at price as a whole, its evident to me that ENS has went thru a full market cycle and is in the last phase. Think of the famous Market Psychology Chart. Many airdrop tokens & brand new low-midcap IDO tokens tend to go through this Market Psychology M as I like to call it at a much faster rate than more sustainable tokens. I believe I have a few analysis on that topic that I'll link below. Conclusion Looking at all the factors mentioned and from a probabilistic view: Is it possible for ENS to make it back to $40 given there is a rise in popularity again? YES Is it possible due to the current market cycle phase for ENS to make it back to at least $40 without any other factors? MAYBE Can ENS fall back to lows where we see a fourth bottom and likely fall even further creating a much worse R:R ? UNLIKELY (NO) Based on current strength relative to the market, can ENS possibly continue even for a short while breaking the next resistance level? YES Welp, thats enough for me to look for an entry and potentially hop into the next trend. ENS names becoming hot again is definitely something I see happening; everyone already has their twitter usernames as their ENS, so what could really go wrong by buying a name you like, or even investing in the project that facilitates this?
by N0ST0PL0SS
2
Educational Post about Defining zones : Read the CaptionIf you have been led to believe that the prices move depending on the number of buyers and the number of sellers; if the number of buyers is greater than the number of sellers, prices go up, & if the number of sellers is greater than the number of buyers, prices go down. Then you would be wrong... The number of sellers or buyers is not what moves the price. What if one seller is doing all the selling to thousands of buyers? The price will go down. The answer to our question is that it is the degree of aggression of the buyers or the sellers and the volume of order-flow they submit is what moves the price. That's what creates the imbalance between buyers and sellers. Your goal as a trader is not to try to catch tops and bottoms that would be absolutely crazy. Your goal as a trader is to find suboptimal zones or in other word good deals. What is a Optimal Zone? A zone in which price has already a trend defined by a rally or drop. Most of the time it is a breakout and pullback structure close to a very strong supply and demand level. Most important is that: Buy optimal zones are close to a macro buy zone In other words price is cheap = good deal to buy. Sell optimal zones are close to a macro sell zone. In other words price is expensive= good deal to sell. What is a Sub-optimal Zone? Buy sub-optimal zones are close to a macro sell zone In other words price is expensive = bad deal to buy. Sell sub-optimal zones are close to a macro buy zone. In other words price is cheap= bad deal to sell. please if you find this idea interesting make sure to follow this profile and drop your comment and like :) thanks family! I wait your comments
Education
by AIRFOREXONE_
4
Don’t bite the bait. Time is money. This is a case of comparative advantage. Which means the less time it takes the coin to produce oil or energy, maybe even transactions. All will go down and then pop back up, much like a sinking ship. Within the next 5 hours, an entry point will be present. It’s time to glean for Q2, because after this the prices will hit an all time high and then go back down until July. A lot will assume now is too soon, but yesterdays price isn’t todays price. However, the cup and handle has presented its self. Now the next sign of equilibrium the price will make will be like a Nike check. Or a Wolfe wave. The eagle has left the nest. 2. API CRUDE OIL U.S.: anything under 5 is a sink. Forecast is in the -1.0 range. TOTAL VEHICLE CAR SALES: Elon and Twitter Don’t hire the bait just yet.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Traliciaa
2
Four trading fears you will have to overcome 😱The stats for retail traders are not pretty. It's no secret around 80% of all retails traders lose money. The reason most fail is the four fears not being overcome. Fear of being wrong! We are emotional creatures and lets be honest none of us like being wrong. This trait shows in some more than others but there is no place in trading for this trait. It's impossible to 100% right all the time it's not even possible being 90% or 80% right all the time. Once the reality sets in your not going to be right all the time we then as traders have fear of being wrong when seeking our trades or strategies. Fear of losing money We all suffer this fear at some point. What we need to understand is all accounts suffer periods of drawdown. I firmly believe the 80% of all retail traders stat is so high due to people losing money and quitting. The reason money is lost is due to poor strategy or no strategy. Once in a whole the fear of losing more will push people away from trading. Fear of missing out It's probably the fear of missing out that led you here in the first place. You see all the lambo's on social media and the life style and fear of missing out is already in play. Then comes seeing what everyone else has profit wise. Then comes paying attention to everyone else and full blown FOMO instead of sticking to your own game. Fear of leaving money on the table. No better feeling than seeing your trades run in profit. The screen is lit up blue and your loving it. But now comes the fear of letting them trades play out. Your leaving money on the table and it's now a fear you'll lose that money. It's one of the biggest mistakes a trader makes! Cutting winning trades to soon and letting losers run for to long. So how to overcome these fears? There's many elements to overcoming the four fears . There's so may and then even sub elements of those. Hence why this idea had the two brainstorm bubbles on the chart of what fears haunt us as traders. Followed by the bubble of all the thoughts you need to take in to consideration as a trader. It's imperative as traders we build a robust tested plan. Sticking to your own plan and lane is crucial. Just avoid others that blur your plan. Losses are a part of trading quicker you accept this as a cost of business quicker that fear of losing money disappears. There is many more on the chart drawing but quicker these behaviours are followed as a trader the quicker the four fears will disappear. Here's to a good rest of the week🥂 Thanks for looking at my Idea Darren 👍
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
7
How to win over greed?🎃1. Greed is the problem Many beginners and even experienced traders face greed. It's a feeling that makes you believe in your superiority over the market: • Opening a lot of trades, breaking risk management • Continuing to trade after incurring a loss • Refusing to take profits, hoping to earn more • Averaging losing trades, because everything is about to change. • Believing in the reliability of your pattern, although no pattern or indicator always works out 100%. 2. Why does greed take over? We all have our own desires and goals. Society teaches us that we shouldn't deny ourselves comfort. This leads the vast majority to take out loans for new clothes, iPhones, Cars.. This is how people get used to greed's superiority and put it before discipline, getting accustomed to being able to live beyond their means. What do you think happens to such people when they come into trading? God forbid, such a person immediately learns about futures, then he will lose everything in a month at most. This is exactly the 95% who lose money in the market. They suddenly see an opportunity to make a million out of $10,000 in a month, and, inspired by the stories of dogecoin millionaires from YouTube and Reddit, start to long bitcoin with x125 leverage. There is another type. They do not rush to make money, they act more cautiously. They set themselves up right away that "trading is a long game and there is no hurry". They develop steadily and study pattern after pattern. However, their game pays off very slowly, and under the influence of their expertise they allow themselves more and more "experiments". They are like King Theoden from Lord of the Rings, who was slowly losing his mind under the watchful eye of Wormtongue. 3. How do you get around greed and start using it to your advantage? Change your perspective. Instead of being greedy for money, become greedy for your professional growth . Ironically, if you stop focusing on money, they will come. Create a journal and start analyzing your trades: • What were your reasons for entering? • Did you need to open that trade or was it suboptimal? • Did you act under the influence of emotions, and if so, which one and why? Develop, grow, and reward yourself when you get better, even if your trading results are unchanged. Your brain needs to get used to the fact that the most important thing now is discipline and small improvements. Step by step, you will become a profitable trader and, when you do, withdraw your honestly earned profits into fiat to reward yourself for your fortitude and persistence. You will succeed, because unlike all casino players, you will have the backbone and endurance! Good luck on your journey! If you have any questions, feel free to ask them in the comments, I always check and answer them. Leave a like so you can enjoy the trader psychology posts in the future as well, and thanks for reading to the end. You are the best!
Education
by Artem_Dishel
8
Sunday afternoon backtesting sessionToday I am backtesting trades on EURUSD to further improve my strategy and my ability to apply my strategy. It is important to keep your tools, and mind, sharp so that you can execute your trades in a live market that has major market players, news events, volatility, liquidity with experienced traders with high end technology with a high end education trading these markets. This means you must find your edge and constantly practice it to refine it, improve it, and remember it anywhere, any place, any time.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn5823541
The myth of risk management - Hack it :) I speak to a lot of traders, new and veteran. It's surprising to see how so many are not sure how risk is calculated and what the exposure really means in terms of P&L. This obviously is a major block in the road on the way to gaining confidence necessary to avoid losses. So let's break it down - *P&L is calculated by lot size * movement. Example: If you have 100 ounces of Gold (1 lot) - That's $100 in P&L (Profit/loss) for each $1 Gold moves in value, so if the price 1890 and you are buying 1 lot , price moves by $5 higher - That's a $500 profit ($100*$) , same thing in reverse, if it would drop by $5 that's a negative of -$500 in open P&L. Leverage decides what you are technically able to open in terms of margin used. So if your leverage on Gold is 1:100 - The value of a 1 lot trade is the price of Gold multiplied by the amount of ounces , so let's say 1890*100 = $189,000 value trade, but your leverage is 1:100, so you would only need $1,890 of used margin (189,000:100) to open the trade. But if you have 1:20 as leverage, you would need 5 times more used margin to open the trade. So a common misconception is that your risk is your leverage. That's not true. Your risk is your lot size. But if you have very high leverage , than you can open very high lot size with a small account - Which is extremely dangerous and not advised. So what does an experienced , smart trader do? No matter what his leverage is, he understands the short-term and the long-term range of movement, and opens a lot size that fits the size of his account considering the range of movement. If the account size is $100,000 , and you are buying 1 lot of Gold: The weekly range is 1840-2,000 , the short-term range is 1880-1910 - Price is 1890 So the exposure is ~$1,000 in the short-term (1%) back to the short-term support 1880 , compared to $2,000 on the short-term resistance (2%) of 1910. The long-term exposure is to 1840, meaning a $5,000 exposure 5% ($100*$50) from 1890 - but 2,000 is the top of the weekly range, meaning - $110 up ($110*100) = $11,000 (11%). So didn't really matter what the leverage is 1:20 or 1:100, what matters here is the range and the lot size. Thank you for reading! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you liked my educational idea please like and follow! It would mean the world to me! I promise to answer all comments/questions - I encourage you to communicate :) Thank you so much for reading - Looking forward to reaching as many of you guys as I can :D -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Exactus
A mental challenge of a trading day. Trading day. A difficult one. GLOBALPRIME:GER30 The day started. I woke up a bit too early and lay in bed for the next hour and a bit. Rolled over and had a look at the night's notifications. Nothing important. I opened my laptop. This was the first mistake. A laptop with wifi and a trackpad. Suboptimal. I found my login, successfully logged in and adjusted my lot size. Next issue. I was trying to enter “20” lots. It didn’t work. Why? Minutes later, 2 mt5 restarts later I realized; the contract size was 100: 20 lots = 1000/point. Way too big. Oops. Luckily mt5 didn’t let me enter that. I need to pay more attention to little details. I quickly downloaded the Tradingview desktop app, installed and logged in. Opened DAX chart. Waited for open. Next mistake: directly after open I placed a trade. Not even 5 minutes had passed. I placed my trades according to the premarket data and 1 min chart. Terrible way to go about the open. I was short the DAX. 20/point - 35 ish point stop - 700$ loss. 1.5%. WAY TOO BIG. However I accepted the size and moved on. Why? My ego was bolstered after the fact that my trading stats were good. I had compiled them the day before. 50-60% WR with my winners being on average 3.5x bigger than losing trades. I didn’t even think about the size. Not great. Now I was in a position, taken off the 1min chart and premarket data, with a rough assumption that the markets were supposed to be headed lower. To make things worse the trade was placed on my laptop with a trackpad. By the time I placed the trade my risk had effectively doubled. Stop went from 17 to 35 points. The market had moved 17 points lower whilst I was still to get my trade in, on an idea that I had had for the last 2-3 minutes. To sell above the bars just before open. It took me 17 points. Ok. Now I was short. Too big position due to the delayed entry, off a one minute chart and mostly premarket data. Not much backed this trade up. And I risked 1.5% of my account on it? Why? Because I thought the DAX was headed lower. Side note: the index was up 1% premarket, following a 2% bull trend day. From a longer time frame there was nothing else to do but buy. But still I was short. Why? The previous day might give us the answer: here it is: A similar scenario. I wanted to be short. However with key differences to the actual trading day: They’re similar to each other, sure. But there’s major differences. The previous chart had had a 5% bear day before. Sellers were still about. A bearish continuation was highly possible. Favored even. It played out early. A 200 point move to the downside, set off by a weak open. (Another key difference to today) today had a bull bar, albeit with tail on top as the first bar, followed by a weak bear bar with lots of tail compared to the previous day of strong bear + weak bull. This was a key difference. Price action wise there was an exit for this trade at the close of the second bar of the session. Did I take it? No. It would’ve been a small looser 6-7 points (a 10 point winner if the entry had been proper). Why did I not exit? Well, I was hoping to see something. Something that had ingrained itself into my mind. So much so that I completely disregarded what was actually in-front of me. (Weakish) bull plus weak bear. I was frustrated and wanted to see something. That something never came and I was stopped out on the massive bull bar that followed. But how did the loss feel? And how did keeping the position open feel? Strangely, I was not uncomfortable. I took the trade confidently and was confident, against all odds. Alright, the trade wasn’t taken in the best way possible. However it was a relatively decent short. Moving on. Here is where the real problems begin. The trade before just didn’t work out. Maybe I was unlucky. A very big bull bar. 50 points. Big bull surprise. Ok, the bulls won this one. It will likely be a trend day up. This is what I told myself in the moment. What do you do on a trend day? There’s so many tempting counter trend entries. It looks weak. It just feels right to get short. It looks like the wedge, or double top or similar reversal pattern will work at any second. A tiny bit of risk for a huge reward, that’s what our brain loves. We love risking little and winning big. That’s the whole concept that the lottery exploits. If lottery tickets were to cost 100K with a chance of winning 200K, do you think anyone would be buying them? No, definitely not. Even though the chances of winning would be inherently bigger. Our minds love security and just the slightest chance of a big winner. It hinders one majorly in a trend day. What you should do is the opposite. Use a wider stop and just go with the trend. If it’s a strong trend, started by a bar like the above you can buy anything. Bull bars, bear bars, opens, retracements. The worst entries will become profitabel since the markets will creep their way up. I was aware of this. I knew what I had to do. LONG. Initially I opened a long on the close of that big bull bar. I closed it on the bar with the long tail. 15 point profit. Why? Because I saw a wedge on the 1 min chart. It was a good sell signal. Imagine this: a wedge (reversal signal), your risk would be about 10-15 points with a target of 30-70 points, depending on how long you want to be in the trade. Would you take it? I did. And the markets just went higher. This happened twice. I tried selling into the trend and was consequently always stopped. I was comfortable keeping the shorts. They felt good. This is another indication that something is wrong. Futures trading should feel uncomfortable. This was already said by Charlie D, portryed in the book "The legendary Bond trader". This is one of the most important parts: (This is taken from Tom Hoougard, an exceptional trader that has helped me massively, especially in the mental department): After two losses I realized. The pain had caught up with me. It was delayed. I went long. I added on the retracement. But then I left with stops at BE. I returned to being stopped out, after a three legged trend move up. 2 bulls flags. Unfortunate, however, I'm proud of that part. I stayed in. I overcame my instinct to take profit. It didn’t pay off this time, but it will eventually. I will be in on the next 200 point rally. This is one of the hardest mental games to play. If you're just slightly off, you won't win. How do I go about fixing this and making sure it doesn't happen again? A few suggestions: Take a step back. Stand up and leave the room, walk around and come back. You will have a brand new perspective on the matter at hand. Another idea: focus on the process: focus on what you see at hand. We all want one outcome: profit and winners. However we don't get that by imagining that outcome. How do we get it? We need to stay in the moment, we need to stay in the process. We need to see what is presented to us and act accordingly. This may be difficult to do in the moment, however one needs to be able to think clearly and execute on those thoughts in the trading moment.
G
by fxwithfreddi
Why Less Trading Gives Better Results!Hey hey traders! We're coming to you with a nice and short video on why trading less is actually better for you, atleast based on our experience! Being a full time day trader I found it hard to actually be at my best and trade all day long... at the end of the day trading is a means to an end, its only purpose is for you to exchange your knowledge, effort and focus for money, yet you do not need to sit there all day to do that, 60mins of focus is better than a whole day of nothing. Try what we preach for the rest of the week and you'll be amazed at your performance! Good luck trading!
OANDA:DE30EUREducation
by PrimedGroup
4
How to distinguish a fake guru from a real professional💯How to distinguish an online conman from a real professional In 2016-17 there was a boom in the info business, and this field grew so fast and unregulated that it opened the door for many scammers. And, unfortunately, many newcomers are caught by them and lose money. After all, scammers are not limited to the truth and can draw the sweetest pictures in the head of their potential victims. And what industry attracts these online conmen the most? Of course, our favorite crypto. It is so attractive because it has the following properties: • No punishment for fraud • The ability to promise endless profits • The unawareness of the masses about its nature Last year, crypto enthusiasts lost more than $14 billion to fraudulent schemes. This is more than the annual budget of Serbia 🇷🇸, Nigeria 🇳🇬, and 3 times more than Georgia 🇬🇪. So that you don't lose your hard-earned money, I have prepared for you a simple list of how to distinguish a pseudo-expert from a real pro: The presence of real statistics. And not for one month, but at least six months. When giga traders sell you a VIP pass to a super-mega-secret group and show you how they made fifty X's by longing doge, ask for real statistics with all trades, or let them return under the rock from which they crawled out. Talks not only about the victories, but also about his defeats, analyzing mistakes and showing opportunities for growth. Don’t confuse it with a heartbreaking story to get attention. Never saying something will happen with 100% probability. No one is Nostradamus, and if your favorite expert is yelling about having a crystal ball and going to Mount Sinai at night to ask God if the bitcoin will grow, then I have bad news for you. Not showing off. For a successful pro, earning thousands of dollars in trading is the norm, he's used to it. He does not need to prove to everyone that he is worth something, showing his park with Lamborghini, he knows himself that he is cool. Having a huge number of real reviews. He doesn't hide the bad ones and communicate with his dissatisfied audience, because he knows that the truth is on his side and he is responsible for his actions. Do you think this post would be helpful to a newcomer? If so, click the like so more newbies will see it trending and I can boast to my mom) Anything to add? Have you ever faced scammers? Tell us about your situation in the comments
Education
by Artem_Dishel
4
BTC Cycles & News CorrelationThere's a reason behind every pump and every dump, it's our job to find out why. My previous post talked about BTC cycles turning bullish over the past few months and I thought this new chart would be a good supplement. The chart should help find a correlation between major crypto/global news events and the major turning points for Bitcoin's 60-day cycles. Bullish news will be displayed in the green notes and bearish news will be red. Each cycle has a major bullish event that causes FOMO among investors and a major bearish event that sparks FUD. Humans are emotional beings. If you can learn about psychology and group behavior, you will begin to predict these major trend shifts. A famous quote from Harold Rosenberg that I enjoy is "Intellectuals are a herd of independent minds." The market for a crypto asset, which operates 24/7, is simply a massive group of people around the world determining value. If you can identify when the emotional intensity of the market is getting too enthusiastic, you will be able to find temporary cycle tops. If you can identify when the emotional intensity of the market is getting too fearful, you will be able to find temporary cycle bottoms. It is really that simple! Over time market participants like us will become better at it and the asset will become less volatile. Bitcoin will not become a currency over night, it will take years and years of these cycles on different timeframes to establish value. Right now with all the geopolitical fears and interest rate hikes, it is understandable why markets are fearful and mostly on the sidelines. Quiet times are the best times to take action in the markets, you don't want to be making decisions when the herd is stampeding.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by WJeffrey
FOMO - Analysis from a Trading Psychologist FOMO. Fear of Missing Out. We have all heard this phrase. It could pertain to that VERY LAST concert of your favorite band in the middle of the week and coming late to work the next day. Scrolling through Instagram and making a split-second purchase that never works out. We get the idea. I can feel FOMO’s omnipresence in the trading world right now. We have seen some large career changing moves in commodities as of late. Extend the lookback time a few years and we could probably open a FOMO Crypto clinic, complete with padded rooms. Why didn’t I catch that move in Euro Power? I can’t just sit here and watch my neighbor get rich; I missed the only opportunity to make money! Well, Crude Oil, Gold and Wheat all taught traders suffering from FOMO a healthy lesson these past few weeks. Or are they doomed to repeat it again? Traders rarely want to admit weakness, but it’s essential to becoming profitable. Hi. My name is Paul Wankmueller, and sometimes I suffer from FOMO. I decided to turn to my favorite trading psychologists, Brett Steenbarger, PhD. Brett has been in the trading game since the late 1970’s and his Nov 21’ speech on Trading Fomo piqued my interest. Below is a summary of what I took away from it, and some preventative ailments attributed to Brett’s psychological evidence-based outcomes. FOMO is a PnL Killer! At its core FOMO is a fear. The problem is not that we missed the trade, it’s that our brains perceive that missed trade as a threat to our future, our success, our reputation. When humans are afraid of something, or see a threat, it produces anxiety. This fear takes blood away from the part of the brain where higher level thinking takes place and sends it to the part that impulsive thinking lives. There WILL be poor decision making under the influence of anxiety. The key to solving this issue is to take the threat out of the situation. Solutions: Taking a break from the screen is healthy but it is not a long-term fix. Brett explains how to train in exposure therapy (His presentation explains this in greater depth.) Slow breathing and visualization are more adept at battling FOMO. If you can visualize a calming place or situation and pair it with that fear, daily practice and dedication will prevent blood flow to the impulse zone. Gradually, when FOMO comes around, you will experience feelings of safety. Combined with expanding your time of reference, understanding, and acknowledging FOMO will make those events look like potholes on a long highway. Missing a trade is a bummer, but is that going to end my career? No. Will buying at the top, and then being so irate that I add to a losing trade and forgo stop orders end my career? It might. Will I be thinking clearly on my next trade with a fresh mistake permeating my thoughts? Nope. The best motivation to avoid FOMO is to develop emotional hate towards the negative consequences of it. In the fullness of time, the desire to avoid negative outcomes becomes self-reinforcing with repetition and therefore cements as an internal priority. This works across the board in other life scenarios as well. Tapping into other motivations besides PnL is one that really hit home with me as well. Brett dives into the desire to learn and grow as a greater motivator than just PnL alone. This addition will create a dual purpose to each trade. You are diversifying your outcome! If you come away from a trade with a negative PnL, but with a positive learning experience, you are building your LC (Learning Capital). With time under this premise, your LC will be indistinguishable from your monetary statement. Instead of tying your value as a trader strictly to your PnL, tie your value to your consistency and risk management. The magnitude of your PnL is nothing without consistency. Risk management begets larger positions, lower drawdowns, and an overall better quality of work life. A day comes with myriad experiences. Maybe you woke up next to the love of your life, saw your kids off to school, got an extra good boy wag of the tail from the pup, the list goes on. Create a diversified life with people and activities that fulfill you outside of trading and your trading will improve. Reminding yourself daily of this is important. Tying all of this together is the practice of keeping a daily ABCD Journal. A- Activating Event – What got you upset? - Missing the trade in this case. B- Beliefs about the event – Little voice in your head – Why is this upsetting to you? “Other people are getting ahead of me, I’m not as good as they are” C- Consequences from the event – How does negative thinking affect your subsequent trading? I’m so upset about missing the opportunity I go ahead and miss the next one! Becoming proficient in ABC will allow you to recognize the triggering event in real time. You begin to identify the negative beliefs and become a pro at understanding the magnitude of the consequences. You can change the pattern of your behavior because the consequences are so front and center. D- [Disputation- You are talking back at that negative thinking. How would you talk to someone you care about who is in that situation? Mentoring a teammate that missed a big play involves constructively lifting them up and helping them learn from it with a comforting tone. You aren’t going to beat them up. I welcome all feedback and am also here if you want to chat about a particular experience. Happy Trading! -Paul Wankmueller, CMT
CBOT:ZW1!Education
by Paul_Wankmueller
11
Crude Oil setup for next weekOn Day TF, market is creating HLs, while and no LLs or LHs (Descending triangle), last week market created H&S pattern on the supply zone and falls Support of 99$, we were looking for market to fill the inefficiency it has created with this impulsive bear run, when market fills the inefficiency and went up till 105.4$ it created falling wedge pattern on 1hr TF. so for trade if market gives us a good bullish breakout of falling wedge pattern we can go long till 105$ to 107$, if this setup fails and market is still consolidating or bearish we will wait till market gives us a bearish breakout of recent demand zone of 100-99$ after that we will go short till 98$ (TP1), 94$ (TP2) personally am a little biased for bearish because of clear bear market in day TF but will not miss the opportunity of long trade if we'll get the falling wedge pattern breakout P.S. Don't place your SLs too tightly, let your trade breathe, it also helps with SMC and wait for candles to close, see multiple time frames of retest. All the best
FX:USOIL
by ankitj97
1