The Dunning–Kruger effectAfter recently doing a review of my last 6 months of trading, I recognized that my portfolio value over this period looked very similar to the Dunning–Kruger effect curve. (a psychological phenomenon that suggests people are not always the best evaluators of their own performance). The theory is often applied to trading because most retail traders experience a similar effect.
After spending 3 months of a practice simulator, I deposited real funds into a trading platform. Within the first week I saw a 24% increase which was shortly followed by loosing half my account value in the coming months. I then decided to take two weeks out and reflect on my performance. It was in these two weeks where I stumbled across an article called "5 steps to becoming a trader" (which I have linked to this post). I came to realize that I was completely incompetent. I didn't follow my trading plans, I got caught up in emotions and I was almost gambling money away in the hopes of getting rich quick.
The harsh reality is trading is hard. After a total of 9 month, I have only just managed to see a net positive return. I have spent thousands of hours only to be outperformed by an Index fund. One article won't change your performance, but these are some things that I learnt which could get you closer to conscious competence:
1. Don't trade with emotions, trade with your plan
2. Keep your risk/reward >1.75
3. Never risk enough money to loose sleep (enter each trade as if you have already lost the money you placed)
4. Reflect on performance and learn from mistakes
5. You don't need to win lots, you just need a mathematical edge
As a trader gains more experience, they become increasingly confident and more likely to see positive returns.
Stay dedicated!!!
Psychology
How to lose your deposit quickly? Easy to follow Step-By-Step🔥Why am I qualified enough to teach you this?
I lost 16 deposits and in 6 years I heard dozens of stories of people who lost their life savings in a couple of months by trading. I have personally tested many of these rules and confirmed that they work.
So what are we waiting for? Lets get it started!
1. Trade with maximum leverage
There is no need to trifle, the bigger leverage is, the greater your profit will be🤑
2. Don't use stop losses
SL’s are for the weak. You probably remember how many times your positions went in the right direction after you closed them by stop loss. Stop losses are evil🤮
3. Average losing positions
Everything is simple here - the more you average, the less you lose. That means you can keep going. Nothing ventured, nothing gained🥂
4. Use your last money and don’t be shy to borrow
The more money you put in, the more money you pull out. Since you are 100% sure that BTC will grow, take loans not only in banks, but also from shady organizations, do not look at interest - you will repay everything back in a month anyway, and your profit will cover any losses💵
5. Trade only when you have been fired from work, haven't slept all night, your girlfriend/wife has left, or you have quarreled with relatives
When everything is bad in your life, it is better to do what you do best - trading. Having earned a lot of money, you will not only be distracted from everyday problems, but also regain confidence and a smile on your face!😉
6. When you closed a losing position, immediately open a new one with double volume to recoup losses
You came into trading to win! So win and never admit defeat! You are Hercules and defeating everyone in the market - this is your 14th feat! No step back, only forward!✊
7. Prioritize Elon Musk's conspiracy theories and tweets over technical analysis
Do you already have the conviction that the Illuminati run the market and every time you open a position and the market goes in the opposite direction, the Illuminati move to harm you? If not, then quickly look at your lost trades. You did everything right, but you still lost money. Why is that? Just don't tell anyone...🤫
8. Believe that trading is luck and the odds are always 50/50
This makes it much easier to make decisions. If black has fallen out on the roulette wheel 2 times in a row, then the chances that red will fall out are much greater. Therefore, do not hesitate to go against the trend, probability theory is on your side 💪
9. Stop exercising your body and mind
You will need neither a healthy body nor a focused mind in trading. You only need your eyes to see “buy“ and “sell“ buttons, you don't need much intelligence for this. Being in the green zone? The green zone is a myth for suckers who engage in self-deception.😏
10. Quit your daily job
Since you already created an account on Binance a week ago, watched a couple of trading videos, sorry, I meant in-depth educational materials, and even have already made a couple of successful trades, then it's time to finally quit that boring job. The road to millions is open, it remains only to take the last step.🤩
11. Manage your friends money
Why getting rich alone? Take your friends and family with you. They will be grateful later.🙌
12. Don't look away from the screen until you've regained every last cent.
Winners don't walk away with losses. Make sure your deposit has at least doubled before ending a session.😎
13. Never fix profits. If it has grown a little, then it will grow more.
Do you remember how you closed the position when the coin grew by 5-10%, and then it rose another 200%? That’s what I’m talking about. Don't close too early, keep trades for the maximum profit.📈
14. Trade at night
If you don't have time, don't give up. There is always an opportunity to earn. Even after a hard day at work.🤜🤛
15. Analyze the market on a 5m timeframe and trade on the 1m.
Opportunities are always there - the main thing is to be open to them.🤞
I hope these tips will help you quickly drain your deposit down and return to a normal life. If you liked them or you are already using them, please click Like and leave a comment so that I understand that it is valuable to you and will continue to write educational materials in the future.✌️
GOLD - Pullback / Then PumpI find it interesting how charts (when accurate) can ostensibly predict the future, a two dimensional image forecasting a four dimensional world of human psychology..
If this chart is accurate (and the reader must know this chart may be entirely wrong as it is essentially speculative) there will be something in the news / some some catalyst that offers explanation for this price action..
Sometimes I wonder if it's the chicken or the egg, as in did the news itself cause Price action, is the news merely a proxy for causation, or maybe it would've happened without the news? I don't know, it's an obvious paradox
Good luck and best regards
Getting Over the Agony of LossesHey Guys!
When a trader takes a loss, it can be quite hard. It can strip you of your motivation to trade. Or perhaps even sway your quality of life. But that doesn't have to be the case. Do you ever wonder why experienced traders don't have a fit after a loss, whilst beginner traders can go into a chatic godzilla-like tantrum? No, it's not because they're enlightened in some way or simply not prone to anger. It's because they understand what trading is "truly" about.
Trading is simply about refining your strategy and honing it until it is capable of extracting consistent profits from the markets. Moreover they understand that in order to refine a strategy they will have to take losses from time to time. How else will they know if their strategy needs refining or not? Thus the experienced trader views a loss as an opportunity to further refine their strategy and more importantly views these losses as a necessary component to propel their trading to the next level. Now, viewing losses from this perspective, who in their right minds will throw a fit every time they take a loss?
So just some advice to the beginner trader. If you don't have a specific strategy that you're working on and are hopping from strategy to strategy; consider making your own strategy. Of course this can be a mixture of strategies you came across in your trading education, but ultimately the strategy must be constructed with your original signature. This means that you understand the nuts and bolts of the strategy and thus have the ability to refine it when necessary. Once you begin this refinement process, upon a loss and the anger starts to kick in, you'll find that refining your strategy with the lessons learned from the loss will diffuse that anger that erupts inside of you. It will become an antidote that if persisted, will get you on the peaceful road to trading success.
I hope this helps! Have a great day guys!
Ken
Mental Flexibility - Reason WHY people lose their deposits 👀Hello dear community member 🙌
Do you agree that mental flexibility is one of the most important qualities for a trader? Let's discuss:
• Why is it important
• What happens when a trader does not train the flexibility of the mind
• How to develop it and improve your results in trading
You don't need to look far for examples of why this is important. Let's remember the fall of the 21st, when everyone was expecting the endless growth of the crypto and the imminent capture of the world by dogecoin adherents and Elon Musk. What happened to these people after November? They continued to long into the short market and most of them lost their deposits.
Why do our eyes get blurry? After all, a month after the wrong decision, we hesitantly look back and think: "God, what an idiot I am, how could I not see this ?!"
Man was created in such a way as to adhere to a given plan and not deviate from it even a step. Our hairy cave ancestors saw the mammoth and could follow it for days until it separated from the herd and became a convenient prey. If they hesitated and looked from one mammoth to another, their chances of returning home with prey would be greatly reduced.
"If you chase two hares, you won't catch either"
And it so happened historically that we like to focus on one thing and in many ways it is useful - ONE job, ONE family, ONE faith, ONE and the same bigmac at McDonalds. However, in trading you need to be open to alternative opinions and be able to quickly change your own, because this is a matter of life and death of your deposit.
There are a couple of ways to develop flexibility. From the simplest to the most complex:
🏅 Community. By joining the elite club of experts, you will always get a lot of cool ideas and understand the mood of public. It will become easier to make decisions, as well as change your mind.
🏅 Alternative plans. By preparing the main scenario and the alternative one, you show your brain that both options are acceptable for you and subconsciously you will be more open to a change in the wind.
🏅 Meditation. Daily practice of meditation helps to better feel your inner "I", streamline thoughts, weed out the unimportant, and control your own ego.
Choose what you like and let's build a strong community together!
Have something to add? Share your opinion in the comments.
If the post made you think, like it, so I will understand that it was useful for you and I will be motivated to write more. Be sure to write about what else you would like to hear.
The study of the prism of vision 🎓Here an open mind opinion which will be very usefull if you are a beginner, if you are at research of profitable and regular results, if you research something working for you in this game, and for many others. I will not develop any strategies or analysis here (it would be too long), just show exemple of some with, in the end, some advice that you MUST read to perform in this trading.
First I will explain why it came to my mind to make this post and secondly I will provide a deep speech for everyone of you.
If you follow me, you know I provide notably updates on Bitcoin for the moment, my analysis, some explanations about what happen inside the market and some expectations for the future (and signal / trades when there is). Yesterday when I wrote the LDTP #11 (you can find it related to this idea), I explained many technical things and during I was writing the post, market made exactly what I was explaning for and what I usually develop. It gave this masterpiece from market like I called it in the initial post 👇
Here showing most of the knowledge I use in my strategy, you will find on this chart Volume analysis, Volume Profile analysis, Wyckoff Pattern analysis, Resistance / Support analysis, Candlestick analysis, Supply / Demand analysis but it's not what I want to develop here.
When I cleared my chart, I said to myself : " How beginner cannot be lost when we see this obvious triangle that probably others people develop, exploit, trade for and claimed as THE solution in trading ? Which one say true, is it the Wyckoff pattern with the spring or is it the triangle ? " And so I developped this triangle, and others technics, always taking a blank chart arguying around differents technics. Here the result (I don't present it as working strategies, just as other setup, reading and visions) :
Using Support / Resistances, Chartism analysis, Volumes 👇
Using Supply / Demand, Candlestick analysis 👇
Using Harmonic pattern 👇
Using Fibonacci retracements & extensions 👇
Or just using the Tradingview Bollinger Bands strategy 👇
And so, looking to that, I was asking myself : "How peoples can determined which content could be usefull for them when everybody say differents things, claiming for differents technics / strategies, speaking of a same chart ? Who say the truth ? Is this game a big coin flip party ? ". I believe some beginners have already wondered about it. How don't think that when you start here and you see many traders, revendicating as professionnals, saying the exact opposite of the others for some reasons that all seams technically viable.
🔰 So here my answer that you need to read : 🔰
In trading, nobody say true but nobody say wrong also, because there will be always a moment where they will have reason. No strategy say true but no strategy say wrong too, because there will be always a moment where they will have reason. Same as indicators, same as technics, same as ... In the end only market have reason. Don't search to control the market, search to understand it. Don't search to be rich, search to be profitable. Don't search to always have reason / always win trades, but most of the time.
▶️ Don't believe others !
Find usefull content, learn from them, learn from you, but learn. You will never win money by following naively what someone say even more if you don't understand what he say and why he say that. Look at all technics, at all approch, at all strategies you can find in trading, search on these, learn on these, until you find one which will fit with you. You will never win money by applying painfully the strategy of another person. Your mind, your personnality have to show through your strategy. Like there is thousand of assets to trade on, there is thousand way to trade them.
▶️ Grind the market until you apply your strategy/knowledges unconsciously !
Here how your brain work or how you have to make it work : You are unconsciously incompetent, then you do research to experiment new approch of understanding. You find it so you become consciously incompetent, then you learn about it to become better. You force yourself to apply it so you become consciously competent, then you grind it everyday, everyweek, everymonth as long you need for integrate it. When you are finally able to do it naturally you become inconsciously competent, then you can restart with another unconsciously incompetent aspect of you.
▶️ Don't avoid failure, you will fail !
Every trader already failed, at different scales, but this is a fact. This is how work your brain, you learn, then you apply, then you fail, then you learn from it to apply better and to avoid future mistakes. And failure will became less important but you will continue to fail, and you will continue to learn from them. This is how you become profitable. You can block yourself in a state where you don't want to fail, but you will never progress. Failure help to question ourselves, it's an essential step to progress. If you are not able to take a step back from your results, from how you apply your strategy and your knowledges, you will run into a wall, you will loose time and failure will became harder than never.
▶️ Become mathematically reliable !
Today you have the opportunity to test strategies for free, abuse of it. Use virtual money accounts and train for days, weeks, months, years until your strategy became mathematically reliable. By using virtual money and not your own, it will able you to fail, as much you need it. But you will also work on your strategy out of any emotions. Because when you trade with real money you are impacted by emotions, and as you are, your strategy will, and is profitability with it. If you don't do that step of learning and applying far from real money you will lose your time to blame your emotions like the reason why you are loosing money but it's just that your strategy isn't' profitable on long term.
▶️ Work on yourself !
As you have to work on your knowledges to improve yourself, you will have to work on your personnality to win money in trading. You will experience emotions and you will have to learn to control them. If you cannot you will have to learn to don't trade when you feel emotions. Emotions will make you overtrade, deviate from your strategy and so from your profitability in trading. Emotions will blind yourself from your true value, making you better than you are or worse than you are. Emotions will cause moments of intense joy as well as moments of deep sorrow. Frustration, revenge, confidence, motivation, patience, mistakes, pain, sadness, happyness I could quote decades that you will have to deal with, you will fail because of them, you will tilt, and you will have to learn about it again. Speaking of pacience, this is the major mistake of beginner for me, if you are not able to put your ass in a chair and look at market without taking a single trade during a full day, you don't trade for the good reason : you trade to feel emotions and not to win money. You are not looking the market to find entry, you are waiting the market to give you an entry : weigh the meaning of these words. And if you had doubts about it, you won't be rich tomorrow from trading because you read this words, but it can give you answer to achieve your goals.
▶️ Open your mind !
Like I showed there is many technics in trading, explore them ! That don't mean that you have to use them but you have to understand what exist, why some can be usefull in some case and not in other ... Also open your mind to other's plans, admit that you could say wrong and that you could think wrong. Another mistake that some do : don't explore only one way, don't think because this indicator say "..." that market can go only here "...". Take a step back, create scenarios that the market could follow and search in these which one you could exploit. Market cannot surprise you if you do this job, become proactive and stop being reactive. You will see that the emotional charge will be less important. But don't confuse, that don't mean you anticipate the market, you just imagine what he can do. Never anticipate the market, or you will lose money.
⚠️ To finish,
I made a statement in one of my past ideas that I want to reiterate : "Whatever your strategy, whatever your indicators, whatever your amount of knowledges, if it is mathematically reliable it doesn't lie but premiums scams lie. Doesn't matter who you want to follow, who you want to support, who you want to believe, always verify that he doesn't provide public payable services where your person serv his own interest. That probably the best advice I can give you. You will need to surround yourself to progress in trading, that a fact, but don't be the food of this guys."
Saying all that, I hope you understand now that trading isn't a question of "this indicator is better than this one", or "this strategy is the best way to ...", no it's just how you use it, how much you trained for, how much you grind to handle it. If you had to remenber only a sentence, use this one :
"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"
If you arrived to these final words I think it's because you want to improve yourself and I promise you that you will succeed if you put the amount of work necessary. It will not be an easy path but nobody said that it will be simple, except those who earn money from you.
There was so much things to say that I probably forgot sometimes what I wanted to say, and there is always at least as much to say. Maybe one day I will do another chapter but for the moment :
Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue !
*Speaking of comments, come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need it to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some !
How to continue in trading during uncertainty timeHello traders:
Recently I received many messages from traders about taking many losses during this uncertain time.
What's going on globally right now may have a different impact on all the different markets.
Many have told me of your frustration, stress, and negative emotion on losing money and continue to feel defeated.
Today I will explain a few things that you can implement into your current trading plan,
approach and perspective during this period of time.
First, you must acknowledge risk management.
Too many traders ignore this key important aspect of trading.
Especially during this time where the market can be volatile and irregular.
It's in your best interest to understand how to manage your risk. You should have a plan that lists out how your approach would be.
For example for my risk management right now:
-1% per trade of account capital.
-No more than 1 trade on the same currency, unless the first trade is secure in profit.
-No more than 2 trades open during a day, max drawdown 2% per day
-10-15 trades per month
-3 trades maximum per week
-Minimum 3:1 RR allow before entry
-Will Take profit on average when in profit 3:1 RR.
Second, learn to control your mindset and emotions.
More often when traders approach me these days, they are telling me they are taking too many trades, chasing profits and revenge trading their losses.
All these arise from the mistakes of FOMO, get rich quick mindset, enter multiple trades.
IF a trader can truly understand the fact that the market will always be there tomorrow, next week, next month..etc, then it's an easier thing to deal with on a psychological level.
You will no longer stress about trying to enter too many trades, worry that the market may not be available tomorrow.
Third, less social media exposure.
In today’s world, unfortunately in trading, most of the things you see on social media are fabricated and fake.
Their sole purpose is to sell you a dream, lifestyle, and easy money concept.
ITs always during this uncertain time, you will see more and more of these “gurus” who will show you how much $ they made during this time.
Now, I am not saying all are fake or scam, I am sure small # of them are doing well.
But, most of the things you will see in your social media feed, are likely to be photoshopped, faked, fabricated to make you believe whatever you are doing is wrong, and you tend to “compare” your result with these people.
This ended up becoming very negative and stressful to continue.
ITs important to understand trading is one of the toughest professions out there.
IT requires so much emotion control, clear mindset, and proper psychology on a regular basis.
If you are struggling, it's usually not to do with your trading strategy, but rather your approach, perspective, and perception.
So, eliminate as many unrealistic things you might see, and focus on yourself and your journey.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know.
Thank you
GBPUSD Projection GU analysis projection, looking to go long here if the opportunity produces itself at the low of the week and the Trendline below, the buy won't be for long because the overall trend is down. We will be shooting above at the touch of the high of the week and also the high of the week. Proper Risk management should be applied always.
Daily forecast on a WC daily forecast on a WC!
i see this as a good risk to take given the confluences of the higher time frame not breaking that high, so their is a likelihood of price moving back to the upside. given the structure and the price action on the higher time frame i can see a last leg forming to an ascending structure. an entry can be made out on the 4H in the form of a larger flag, its just a matter of pulling that trigger at the right moment for me now. a risk of 1% will be executed if the criteria is met to my trading plan, if im stopped out im happy with the position in this frame of mind - given the potential this move has to the upside.
War and Financial Markets: Things to do and NOT to doGiven the current fundamental situation - Russian-Ukrainian conflict - we would like to remind some good practices for the small investor and retail trader taking inspiration from the excellent book by Cosimo Natoli and Stefano Natoli "Terrorism, War and Financial Markets" published by Trading Library. In this interesting book the authors analyze how financial markets have reacted to important events such as terrorist attacks and wars.
As we know one of the principles of technical analysis described in the very famous "Technical Analysis of Financial Markets" by John J. Murphy is that: "the market discounts everything" and that is that the price movement already incorporates all those factors of fundamental, political, psychological etc.....
Let's go back to the above advice for the trader and the retail investor - assuming that the professional trader already has strategies and procedures to handle this type of situation (one of all derivative hedging):
Things NOT to do:
- Do not panic, normally markets bounce back and therefore don't close the position immediately as a panic selling
- Do not be influenced by news - that tend to amplify events - by "experts" that you do not know or by friends
- Do not trade intraday if you cannot follow real-time positions (this is always true) and if you do not have experience, in general do not take positions in moments of uncertainty and do not mediate at a loss
- Don't be disheartened by losses (possible stop-losses).
Things to do:
- Remain calm and have a positive attitude
- Inform yourself appropriately from different sources about the situation, keeping a critical spirit about what you read and listen to
- Continue to follow your plan and strategy
- Keep a note of lessons learned and the emotions and feelings you have, including lessons learned from losses, take the opportunity to study and learn something new.
DROP IN TRADINGHello!
Today I want to talk about drawdown in trading.
This topic is very important because it is directly related to the possible loss of all capital.
What is a drawdown?
When trading, you can make profits as well as take losses.
When you lose too much and the account decreases significantly, this is called a drawdown.
Losses in trading are normal and should not be feared.
But you should not lose too much, a minus of 15-20% is considered a moderate minus value, and these losses must be controlled.
Drawdown (DrawDown, DD, drawdown) in the foreign exchange market is a temporary decrease in funds in the trading account as a result of opening a losing trade.
In simple words, a drawdown is a trader's floating or real loss.
Drawdown types
In the Forex currency market, it is customary to classify the following types of drawdown:
The current drawdown is a temporary drawdown associated with an open position, which is now in the red.
The size of the initial deposit does not change until the position is closed.
As a result, the position itself can be closed even in a plus, but if the position goes into a minus, you should think about the rules of money-management.
Because a position not closed in time may end up with a margin call.
A fixed drawdown is a position closed with a loss.
This type of drawdown negatively affects the size of the deposit, reducing it.
If money management is not used correctly, such transactions can significantly reduce your deposit, which is not recommended.
Maximum drawdown - the maximum value of deposit losses for the entire trading period.
It is calculated each time from the previous maximum deposit amount, and the largest value is selected.
For example, there were three big minuses on the account: $300 with a $1000 deposit, $450 with a $2000 deposit and $200 with a $2500 deposit. The maximum drawdown here will be $450.
Relative drawdown - the maximum decrease in the account relative to the initial deposit, expressed as a percentage.
It is often used when analyzing a trading strategy in order to understand after what losses a trader should think about changing the strategy.
For example, if the relative drawdown is 20%, then with an initial deposit of $1000, the speculator will understand that it is necessary to close deals and modify tactics when the current drawdown reaches $200.
The absolute drawdown shows how much the balance has decreased relative to the initial value. These data are similar to the relative drawdown, but are expressed in the deposit currency.
Why analyze losses?
Each trader should know how much he is ready to lose and at what value he needs to change the strategy and start trading a little differently.
The percentage of allowed drawdown is different for each trader, conservative traders try to minimize the maximum drawdown, more aggressive traders take risks much more often and in large volumes.
Large companies keep the maximum loss in the region of 15-20%.
Optimal drawdown size
The optimal drawdown size varies depending on many factors: the type of strategy, the amount of the deposit, the psychology of the trader, the timeframe, and so on.
Drawdown can be divided into three types:
A drawdown of 15-20% is working and quite normal. It can be restored, and it does not make strong adjustments to the trading strategy.
A drawdown of 21-35% is a dangerous level of losses that will require a reduction in the volume of the trade and recovery can be difficult. Closer to the 30% mark, it is important to think about modifying the trading strategy and review it for errors in the risk management system.
A drawdown of 36-55% is an actual harbinger of a loss of a deposit. It is better to close orders and think about what led to such a drawdown, which was not closed forcibly earlier.
Drawdown reduction
Setting a stop loss - and its size should not exceed 5% of the total amount on the trader's account.
Optimal leverage - the use of a large amount of leverage can lead not only to drawdowns, but also to draining the trader's deposit to almost zero.
Refraining from trading in an unstable market - very often a trader, observing even the first two conditions, still manages to lose almost half of his own funds during one session. Therefore, if you have made several unsuccessful transactions in a row, then it is better to give up trading for today and do something else.
Correct assessment of probable profit - one should not be greedy when placing a take profit, its size should always correspond to the market dynamics.
conclusions
Every trader who wants to consistently earn money in the market must understand how much he is ready to lose, while the trader must do everything not to lose all his capital.
You can lose 15% per month and it will not be scary for a trader who follows a trading strategy, money management and monitor losses.
As a result, such a trader can return the lost next month.
But those who do not follow these rules, do not think about a drawdown, do not know how much they are ready to lose and how much they cannot lose, as a result, everyone loses.
Losses are inevitable, but don't let the market take everything.
Good luck!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩
TRADING MYTHSHello traders!
There is a lot of information about trading on the Internet and it is sometimes difficult to understand what is true and what is fiction.
Today we will try to sort out the most popular myths and understand what is really true and what is not.
Work without rest
You have to work hard, but don't overdo it.
If you watch charts 24/7 or study hundreds of systems, you will simply go crazy.
There will be a mess in your head, and most importantly, you will be tired.
Improve your skills and discipline, keep a trading journal and analyze trades, and don't forget to rest.
It's a matter of discipline
Discipline is a very important skill for a trader.
Through discipline, you can control your emotions and follow the rules.
But do not think that one discipline is enough to be a profitable trader.
If you are losing money over and over again, it may be because of your trading strategy.
Analyze your trading and find your style.
Point of entry
The entry point is very important when making a new trade.
The better the entry point, the less the price will go against you if you have analyzed everything correctly.
However, there are other factors that play an important role in trading: position size, stop loss, trade management, etc.
The entry point is just a part of the whole work.
Did you know that even with random entry points, you can still be profitable if you think about stop losses, position size, and trade management?
Profitability
Trading is not a one day job.
And do not expect that you will take a huge profit in an hour.
The main task is to be profitable at a distance.
Don't run for quick profits.
Remember that the more positions you open, the more likely you are to lose.
Engage in consistent profits that are different for different trading styles.
For scalpers, consistent returns mean making a profit every quarter. For traders who trade daily charts, consistent returns will mean making a year's worth of profits.
Determine the value of constant return for yourself and follow the plan.
Trading is a risk
Every day carries a variety of risks.
You run the risk of being hit by a car or having an accident.
But after a few driving lessons, the risk of getting into an accident decreases.
It's the same with trading.
Over time, you will become more experienced and will become better versed in trading, thereby reducing the risks.
Everything in life comes with some risk, and your job is to keep all possible risks to a minimum.
Leverage
There are a lot of advertisements on the Internet for brokers who offer crazy leverage.
Brokers say that you can make 100% profit from one position, but they don't say that you can lose everything.
Leverage in inexperienced hands will result in the loss of the entire account.
Always remember that leverage is a double-edged sword. It can increase both your gains and your losses.
Grail
Everyone wants to find it!
But he is not.
The Grail does not exist, and professional traders do not have any secret.
To be profitable you must have experience, knowledge and discipline.
This is what distinguishes professionals from beginners.
You can make $100,000 out of $1000
You often see ads that say you can make $100,000 out of $1,000.
It is unlikely that there will be at least one newcomer who is able to do this.
Seeing such an advertisement, beginners think that it is possible to do it in one transaction.
In trading, you need to have a lot of money to earn a lot. If you have a small initial capital, then you will not be able to earn a million dollars in the short term.
In the early stages, think about how not to lose capital, and only when you learn this, you will understand how to make a profit consistently.
Where will the market go?
In the beginning, every trader wants to know exactly where the price will go.
Essentially, it means knowing the future, which is impossible.
No need to try to predict the future, in trading you will earn thanks to probabilities.
You should study this topic and understand that you don't have to be right on every trade.
You can be wrong more than half the time in determining future price action and still be profitable.
It is enough not to lose more than you earn.
Cut your losses and let your profits run.
Conclusion
The world is full of trading myths.
There are gigabytes of information around and it is very difficult to understand what is true and what is fiction, what is really useful and what is not.
Study the market, but don't believe everything you read.
Listen to the best, but don't forget to think with your own head .
HOW TO TRADE PULLBACKSHello everyone!
Today I want to discuss pullback trading with you.
You may have come across such a situation when you were waiting for a pullback to enter the market, but the price did not stop and went further.
In the place where you expected the end of the rollback, there was a breakdown, and you did not receive an entry point.
Something went wrong?
Trend
Trend is our friend!
The most famous and most important rule.
At the beginning of any market analysis there must be a trend definition.
If you want to trade pullbacks correctly, you must determine the direction of the trend.
If you are trading on the hourly chart, you must determine the direction of the trend on the daily chart and wait for the right situation on your chart, while trading, of course, with the trend.
There must be a trend in the market in order to trade on a pullback.
Trend types
Trends are different, of different strengths.
They can be divided into three types:
1. When the price bounces off the 20MA and stays higher, we say the market is in a STRONG TREND.
2. The price bounces and stays above the 50MA - GENERAL TREND.
3. The price reaches and bounces from the 200MA - WEAK TREND.
Knowing these types of trend and being able to understand the movement will help us enter the market at the right point.
Point of entry
The entry points will be the areas around the MA lines.
Here it is worth focusing on the word REGION.
You must understand that the price can go below or above the MA and only then turn around, be prepared for this.
Entry on a strong trend
In a strong trend, the price stays above the 20MA.
At the same time, you need to remember that with a strong trend, rollbacks are not deep.
This means that finding the entry point will not be so easy.
But you can open a position after the breakdown of the last maximum.
Entry on a regular trend
In a normal trend, the price makes deeper pullbacks.
The price is testing the 50MA, while the previous resistance may become support.
These are the moments we are looking for to enter.
In such zones, we will wait for a price reversal candlestick pattern to enter.
Entry on a weak trend
In a weak trend, pullbacks are even deeper than in a normal trend.
The price makes a strong pullback, reaching 200MA.
When the price of the zone is reached, we are waiting for confirmation - a candlestick formation.
Closing positions
Closing a position is just as important as opening it.
The main signals for closing will be the price movement beyond the MA line.
For example, in a market with a strong trend, the price may go a little lower than 20MA, which is not critical yet, but it makes you be more careful.
It is worth paying attention to the support level, which should not be broken by the price, but if the price still breaks through the level, then the position must be closed.
With a weak trend, it is worth remembering that pullbacks can be deeper and the price will go beyond 50MA.
You must be prepared for this.
Watch for a support level that should not be broken.
With a weak trend, holding a position is the most difficult.
The price will make strong pullbacks, which will eventually force you to close the trade.
Sometimes the price, having reached the desired zone, does not bounce right away.
Consolidation begins and if you see such a situation, the best entry option would be to exit the consolidation zone.
You must have a plan for every occasion.
conclusions
Trading with the trend is the most profitable business.
You must be able to identify the trend on the higher timeframe and, importantly, be able to wait for the right situation on your timeframe.
The market cannot be predicted with 100% certainty, so use stops and keep an eye on support and resistance levels.
Good luck!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩
CONQUER YOUR EMOTIONSHello everyone
Today I want to talk about a very important topic in trading – emotions.
Emotions accompany us in trading from beginning to end: when we open a position, while we hold and when we close.
Our psychological state is constantly being tested.
All this leads to constant mistakes and loss of money.
But how to avoid all this?
The main reason
Think about what is the main reason for your emotional swings?
It may seem strange, but the main reason for emotional mistakes is the continuous observation of the price chart.
You constantly look at the chart, watch every tick, the price changes its direction every second, you overwork and begin to doubt the correctness of your forecast.
At the same time, it is worth recalling that people like to watch: movies, magazines, books.
We are constantly looking at something and looking for something new.
Forex is interesting because there is money there.
When a position is open, traders are happy to follow every price movement.
And when the position is not open, what do you do?
That's right, you don't look, because looking at the market is just so boring.
If the position is open, it is difficult to resist and not look at the chart.
What is the reason for the shaky psychological state of the trader?
Your drug
Constant monitoring of the price leads to addiction.
You get tired, the exhausting observation of how profit comes and goes, leads to big mistakes.
Continuous emotional roller coasters kill the desire to trade in us and at some point, on a subconscious level, you want to lose everything just to get away from the monitor.
Familiar?
How to overcome emotions?
There are many different ways, today we will look at three that will help you avoid emotional overload.
1. Use a higher timeframe
If you trade on minute charts and experience problems with emotions and fatigue, you should switch to an older timeframe.
If you start trading, for example, on a daily chart, there will be no need to look at the chart every minute, because the price does not move so fast.
The daily or 4-hour schedule does not change so often and it will be enough for you to look at the chart once or twice a day.
Thus, you will remove from the equation the constant monitoring of the schedule, which leads to fatigue.
You will have fewer mistakes, which means more profit.
2. Daily goals
A great way to reduce emotional pressure is to set goals.
The point is that you set yourself a certain profit and loss goal every day, and when you reach one of the indicators, trading for you stops today.
You can set yourself a profit and loss goal, for example, of 50 points.
As soon as you earn or lose 50 points, you go to rest until the next day.
This is a great way, and it will definitely help to avoid over-trading.
But not everyone can force themselves to leave, especially after losing money.
Follow the strategy, otherwise you will be pursued by losses.
3. Lot reduction
For many, this method may seem strange.
After all, everyone thinks only about profit and how to get it quickly.
The market is a dangerous place and there is no need to hurry here.
Reduce the position by 5 times and you will see the difference in your trading.
You will stop making mistakes, you will follow the strategy.
But why?
The problem is that when trading large lots, the trader thinks only about money, forgets about risks and rules. This is how the trader drains the account.
When trading small volumes, your brain will be free from thoughts of quick profit.
YOU will become more reasonable and attentive.
Results
Emotions will not go away and the market will always test you.
Strong emotional swings make you make mistakes and lose money.
Use the methods listed above and control over emotions will come, the results will improve.
May peace come with you!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩
BTCUSD 15 minute Chart Patterns - Possible Use demonstrationI think when I can explain how i use this chart i will understand it so much better. In this demonstration i am just imaging different paths and roughly where i could imagine making moves. If it hits a buy area becuse it is bouncing off a trend line and the volume. This is what every trader does, in their own way. I originally looked at many methods, all i could find, in books and online, they often all track the same point or area. So i figured my own method was as good as any, as lon as it worked for me.
To have value now the price of crypto has to have potential gain in value or it will be loosing value. It changes constantly , especially, with manipulation, and we all make money off of buying and selling or we hope to make money by buying and holding or we do both. I do both. I bought my kiddo long term bitcoin. It could set her up or it could buy, hopefully, a first car.
No one can really predict a price because price does not exist. Just movement.
Which is every news story that is related, every celebrity endorsement every major company or player endorsement and if this makes any of them a profit they will increase its value with the rest f it wanting to hold crypto based on potential gain. Its value is in creating value. Which is a given. The fuel is the believers. Which is the telling.I don't think there is a way to know.
Tomorrow they could shut it all down or say they embrace it and every body goes ape$%^t. Then you redo your charts and see what stands out as new psychological areas of gain and loss and game. This is the plan i see right now, but only one, of many possibilities.
Though the chances of this being right is like .00000001 it would be super cool if its close. Either way i keep playing and learning for thee action the rewards lets me do it. And doing it makes the value tangible and enjoyable as the idea of spending crypto make no sense as its a fluctuating value that i'm investing in because i want it to to up. This is just my approach to explaining this approach. Why not. So take it as thinking out loud and feel free to agree or disagree. Im an artist and i trade to pay the bills. These spots i'm choosing are spots where I think it could easily bounce around and areas i could buy or sell. In these areas this is how i would be thinking of game value. But i will update and change my plan constantly. I like the idea that this chart will be locked in a moment in time and that some could be close. The market looks volatile and exiting.
The excitement of how much can you make today.
"Hey i paid for my groceries."Whoop! Whoop! is usually what i am thinking. "Hey that just paid for my kids college" is what id like to be thinking. Or even hey my kids makes a living in the crypto sector of gaming and virtual reality. I also created some art and ideas along the way.Longterm value requires much less action. So i like to use this approach in the now of the market , in the long of the market i use everything in the world i can consume and enjoy doing so i use it in teaching my child the world they are headed towards.
In the end i just make a buy or sell decision at a price point in moment in time in a positive to negative, negative to positive motion based on that same moment in the world. Like every other trader. Even the algorithms. This becomes important in belief. I have had stocks in companies that I thought were geniuses and were going to change the world and they completely went under. Thats how the money roll. buy, sell buy, sell, buy, sell. But i like crypto much better than stocks. Just as a whole. I am concerned the stock market will vanish before it merges into crypto. Probably cheaper for them to crash than to just swap our stocks for coin.
SECRETS OF PROFITABLE DAY TRADING. №2.
Continuation of the first part.
SECRET 6 - High Time Frames
Watch the situation on high timeframes.
Watch out for high time frame trends.
Often, this is how beginners open positions against the trend, do not follow higher timeframes.
At the same time, there are situations when a correction has begun on a smaller timeframe, which is not yet visible on a higher timeframe.
Such situations can be traded, but you should be very careful.
SECRET 7 - Daily drawdown
You should limit your losses per day.
Choose for yourself a suitable value for losses and profits, upon reaching which, you will stop trading that day.
If you decide that your daily drawdown is $100, this means that if you get a loss of $100, you will stop trading that day and do not make stupid trades in the hope of winning back.
Hope for wagering - always leads to the drain of deposits from beginners.
Control emotions and losses.
SECRET 8 - Trading Sessions
A day trader wants to make a quick profit and get out of the market, so it's important to keep an eye on the trading sessions and know when the market is most active.
The European session, intersecting with the American one, creates the most volatile time on the market.
At this time, the market moves faster, which will give you the opportunity to earn quickly.
But do not forget about the risks, such volatility can bring losses just as quickly.
It is worth remembering that the end of the Asian session and the beginning of the European one is a great time for reversal setups.
SECRET 9 - Daily Volatility
Each pair has its own daily volatility.
And, if you know this value, it will be easier for you to understand when the movement potential is likely to be exhausted.
These values can be found on the Internet for each pair.
SECRET 10 - Carrying positions through the night
Very often, beginners make this mistake - they transfer positions to the next day.
Do not forget that you opened on an intraday setup, that is, this setup most likely will not work the very next day.
Tomorrow, and maybe even at night, the market will behave differently, go against you and reach your stop.
Don't go against your strategy, follow its rules.
conclusions
Day trading is not easy, but it can be learned.
In addition, it is very profitable.
Good for overclocking a small account.
But don't forget the rules.
Don't go against the market, follow the strategy.
Good luck!
Dangerous/exciting resistence zone for Bitcoin / USDThe latest days the Bitcoin price has really shown strength. I know that a lot of traders have taken good profits from these movements. Also another group off people will probably show FOMO-action and will jump right in because the price is moving and they don't want to miss possible gains. Thats what FOMO is.
However, watch out by stepping in now and take a sudden long position because of FOMO. Just have patience for the right confirmations. I say this because the price is hitting a crucial resistence-zone. When you take it a little further in the chart. Around january 2021 you can see the yellow-circled zone where the price bounced off this resistence-line (the same where the price is right now!), resulted in a drop of almost 27% to the 28900 prive-level. This price action was created in a bull-market.
Around june 2021 the same thing happened. See the yellow-circled area in the chart. The price action was created in a bear market. Which is quite similar to the situation where we are in right now, where the price came down all the way from 68000.
The orange-cirled area are showing no real heavy pull-backs though. So there could be a small chance that we will see bullish momentum, but for now.... i doubt it. Corrections are part of the game. Especialy when the prices hits like the last 2/3 days.
In my opinion we should wait to get a retest of the 39000/40000 area before jumping in again. And search for possible long around there. If this level will not hold, we probably have to retain the 37000 level. And when this level doesn't hold I assume we will get to the 28900 prive-level and search for longs there.
I just want to remind people .....DO NOT step in because of FOMO. Zoom out, and make the right deciscions. Always use a stop loss.
DEFINE YOUR LEVELHello to all!
Let's talk about what levels of becoming a trader are.
LEVEL #1: Unconscious Incompetence
When a beginner enters the forex market for the first time, he thinks that it will be easy to make money.
He has heard many beautiful stories and is now ready for you to go into battle.
The price is going up! So it's time to buy.
These first steps of an incompetent trader lead to disaster: usually a loss of the deposit.
It can only be worse if the trader manages to earn something and starts to think that he understands the market.
Over time, these traders lose everything.
After a series of mistakes and losses, comes the realization of one's incompetence and the desire to become better.
LEVEL #2: Conscious Incompetence
At this level, the trader realizes that he lacks knowledge and the trader begins to study and seek…
A trader looks for the Grail, buys "super profitable" indicators, learns trading methods and changes them every week without understanding.
A trader experiments with indicators, Fibonacci lines, each new figure of technical analysis seems to be the one that will lead to success.
The trader is looking for a bottom, an ideal entry point in the market and loses money again.
This level can last for several months or even years.
The trader will study, search, be disappointed every day.
It is at this stage that most of the players leave, who do not believe that it is possible to make money on the market.
LEVEL #3: “Eureka!”
At the end of the second level, the trader begins to understand that it is not a matter of strategy, but of psychology.
The trader begins to realize his mistakes and realize that he was succumbing to emotions that were blinding.
The trader begins to study books on psychology and find his mistakes on the pages.
At some point comes the realization that the future movement of the market is impossible to predict.
The trader chooses a strategy that suits him and determines the risks for himself, trading becomes easier.
Negative transactions do not upset, because the trader understands that the strategy works and sooner or later the trader will take his toll, you just need to act according to the strategy.
A trader has learned to manage risk and learn the discipline to follow a strategy clearly.
LEVEL #4: Conscious Competence
A trader opens trades when the system gives a signal.
A trader easily closes losing positions when he realizes that the market is moving against him.
The trader allows profitable trades to grow, and cuts unprofitable trades.
Most likely at this stage, the trader will trade at zero, learn not to lose money, understand how the market works.
Losses do not bother, but the trader allows profits to grow, and this can continue for about a year.
LEVEL #5: Unconscious Competence
Trading is easy and unconscious.
The trader, as if on autopilot, opens and closes transactions and does not feel emotional swings.
The trader mastered his emotions.
100 pips of profit don't turn the trader's head like before.
Trading becomes work.
The trader does not stop developing and analyzes each trade in order to improve the system.
And the trader likes all this, because it is still a very exciting journey, which now brings money to life.
Conclusion
Trading is not easy, but it can be learned.
It should be understood that the main enemy in the market is your emotions.
Do not lose control over yourself, study, analyze, follow the strategy and then you will succeed.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩
SECRETS OF PROFITABLE DAY TRADING. №1. Hello everyone!
Today we will discuss a very important topic - intraday trading .
Intraday trading is considered not an easy task, but quite profitable.
There are a few secrets that every trader should know about.
These secrets will greatly improve your trading and relieve you of unnecessary stress.
SECRET 1 - Don't trade below H1
During the day, the trader uses setups that will often give false signals on small timeframes, which will make trading nervous and unprofitable.
On H1 timeframes and above, setups are processed much better and there will not be as many false signals as on small timeframes.
The higher the timeframe, the stronger the setups formed on it.
SECRET 2 - Don't make too many trades
Even if you think that intraday trading involves a large number of transactions, this does not mean that you need to open transactions often.
Each trade should be entered after the setup signal , don't open trades just because you feel like it.
Look for clear signals, like in the books.
Wait, don't rush.
SECRET 3 - Number of tools
Day trading involves many quick decisions from the trader.
If you follow 30 pairs at once, you will not be able to clearly analyze the market and will not be able to make the right decisions.
There are enough deals inside the day, so keep an eye on 3 pairs , no more.
For beginners and it will be a lot, start with one pair and as you get better, add more charts.
Don't make it difficult for yourself, it's not easy.
SECRET 4 - Risks
The old risk rule still works and works well.
Do not risk more than 1% of your capital on each trade.
This rule applies most to beginners.
Experienced traders can deviate from this rule and risk a little more.
But this applies to experienced traders and even they should not risk 50% of the capital.
It's too much.
SECRET 5 - News
News has always influenced and will influence the market.
If the news is not so scary for high timeframes, then for smaller ones it can become a big loss.
Do not trade half an hour before the release of important news.
This is a dangerous time when the market can go either way very quickly, stopping your position.
Don't take risks.
Good luck!
End of the first part.
POSSIBLE 600 PIP DROP Keep it simple ... Always.
Risk : Reward
1 : 20
_______________________________
Moving Stoploss to break even if price gets to 1.8900
Manually closing order if price closes above 1.9015 (on the 4H timeframe)
Past Experience DOES NOT Determine Future Outcomes.
Past Experience DOES NOT Guarantee Future Outcomes.
Trade Safe 🥂✅
The 12 Tasks Of Trading12 tasks of trading which include:
1. Self-analysis to determine if you are in a state of mind to trade
Prior to starting your trading day, it is very important to make sure you are in the correct state of mind to trade. You need to analyse yourself and make sure you are at the best state of mind to avoid mistakes in the markets. You cannot finish fighting with a friend, spouse, or colleague and expect to make great analytical decisions. Therefore, the first and most important step, is always making sure your mind is clear and at its best.
2. Mental rehearsal to avoid mistakes
The second step includes you rehearsing your set of rules and making sure you are going to strictly stick by them. This will allow you to avoid many mistakes in the markets and in your day.
3. Daily focus to lead you towards your goal
It is very important to have goals, but specifically daily goals. You need to determine what your goals are for the day including the pairs you are looking at, the times you will be trading, your risk management, and what you aim at gaining from the markets that day. Once goals are met, it is important to step back and wait until the next day to trade.
4. Developing your own style of a low risk idea.
For students of Opes Trading Group, low risk ideas and strategies are all taught to them during the course. It is important for every trader to develop their own ideas and strategies that are low risk in order to always protect their capital. Capital preservation is the most important rule of forex trading.
5. Stalking the charts starting from high to low time frames
Looking at the charts from the higher to the lower time frames allows you to be able to see the bigger picture before looking right in. if you started looking from the lower time frames, you could have a wrong picture painted for you as to where the price could be heading. You cannot see the bigger picture if you are standing too close to something, it is the same concept on the charts.
6. Action requiring commitment and not thought
Once a trade and an idea has been analized, it is important not to second guess yourself and take the trade. Do not second guess yourself if you believe in yourself and your trades.
7. Monitoring the trade to keep the risk low
Always keep your eyes on your trades. Now that doesn’t necessarily mean you need to be glued to your charts, but check them every once in a while, and at important candle closure to make sure they are still playing out the way you expect them to.
8. Aborting is the trade is not going well
If a trade does not go as planned (and the reality is some won’t), it is important to cut your losses if the trade is clearly not going to recover. There is no reason to hold on to a losing trade if there is no reason for it to recover.
9. Taking profits when the reason for the trade has ended
A take profit is placed for a reason, however sometimes the reasons end before the take profit has been reached, meaning it is very important to close the trade even if it means closing it early. Never become attached to a trade that you chase the take profit only to find yourself back at 0 or even in negative.
10. A daily review to monitor and prevent future mistakes
At the end of every day, all the trades taken should be reviewed. This will allow you to see what you are doing right, and what you are doing wrong. This will give you a good indication for what is needed for future trades.
11. Being grateful for what went well
Something so many people pay no attention to and ignore is gratefulness. Any positive day in the markets, is a great day! Be grateful for all that goes right, no matter how small the profits might be, because 90% of traders lost that day.
12. A periodic review to make sure everything is still working well
Every quarter it is recommended that you review your whole trading system. As the markets change, we need to be able to change and adapt with them, therefore a periodic review will allow you to know if things that are working still are or aren’t.