Don't fight the WORM, Ride ITWe act upon the stories we tell ourselves in our heads.
Make sure the stories you have are aligned with the market reality.
So here is another story, the market trend is like the WORM from the movie DUNE, when it comes, you don't stand in its way, you let it pass you and then you jump on its back, holding on with your hooks.
LETTING IT take you to your destination.
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We SEE the worm
We UNDERSTAND the worm
We TOUCH the worm
We ARE the WORM
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Psychology
Epistemology of Technical AnalysisHow does the reliability of technical analysis relate to our understanding of it as a total population?
Epistemology is a branch of philosophy that examines the nature of knowledge -- its presuppositions and foundations, and its extent and validity. The word epistemology is derived from the ancient Greek epistēmē, meaning "knowledge", and the suffix -logia, meaning "logical discourse." Epistemologists study the nature, origin, and scope of knowledge. Simply stated, epistemology is "meaning-making."
Epistemology presupposes metaphysics. People tend to think of psychology as being the foundation for technical analysis , often without realizing that psychology arises out of, or is a subset of, philosophy. In other words, psychology is "a posteriori" to philosophy. Historically, psychology arose in order to include the empirical method when examining the metaphysical questions posed by philosophy. It has since brought various topics of study to the field of psychology, such as sensation, perception, intelligence, and memory.
At first glance, the relationship between philosophy and psychology seems to have a dualistic nature, and is reciprocal: Modern-day science believes that the "phyisical" (psychology) -- a brain -- creates the metaphyisical, and that the metaphysical (philosophy) -- a thought -- allows us to understand the physical. Phillosophers argue, however, that "no account of knowledge can proceed without assuming that we already have some sample or example of it, or of the way the world works;" If we already know something, then we already have some insight into reality. Similarly, no account of trading analytics can proceed successfully, according to presupposed rules, without some concensus to those rules.
My definition of technical analysis: A concensual set of rules for how to react to market stimuli. We can call TA a language, and it has rules akin to any other language. When we communicate through language, we operate by utilizing a concensual set of rules by which to respond to vocal stimuli. If two people try to communicate an idea to each other via divergent languages, the efficacy of communication is vastly diminished; consequently, if the market is being influenced by people who both DO know and DO NOT know technical analysis, the reliablity of our predictions for market trends is also vastly diminished.
I would argue that the implications of this are stronger this market cycle than ever before, due to the exponential rise in new traders unfamiliar with technical analysis , and that this offset in reliability is proportional to the total trading volume they supply to the market. At the same rate, "whales" who hold the largest crypto bags are likely to be the most familiar with TA, or have those working for them who are adept at TA, and therefore have a significant oppositional influence to those people aforementioned. It makes you wonder how many people have given their economic stimuli to the power elite already bankrolling with their COVID-era monopolies.
Stay safe out there. This is the most risky moment in the history of crypto for those of us with very little we can afford to lose.
The Psychology Of Trading, Fine Line Between Success And FailureMost traders experience similar thoughts patterns and emotions on the charts. your psychology and your mind-set represent 70% of your trading performance. So smart thinking and discipline is more important than your strategy. That's why controlling it is what makes you profitable and successful.
Range of emotions that can impact your trading:
1- Doubt:
It comes after some losing trades you start doubting your knowledge and everything you know. Fight that feeling as much as you can trust your judgment and trust yourself.
2- Fear:
Also comes after some losing trades and risking too much. the best way to fight this emotion is that you should be comfortable with what you are risking and if you feel uncomfortable LOWER YOUR LOT SIZE.
3- Revenge:
An emotion that exist since the stone age. after your stop loss is hit you want to take a revenge from the market and get back your money. Well you should not take it personally at all and you should convince yourself that in the market anything can happen.
"Main Tip" WHILE TRADING LEAVE YOUR EMOTIONS AT THE DOOR
Bitcoin vs Gold / Gold's Last Dance / Spot the DifferencesBesides time, that is x10 faster on Bitcoin due to technological advancements, better global access to markets and information i see no other major differences. Our future self 30 years from now when we will be around 60-90 will sound to our kids and grandkids as our grandparents and parents right now, BTC is the safe haven!!!
Matter of fact BTC has a bright future ahead but imo the insane bitcoin rush is now gone, it will slowly and gradually replace gold (as global reserve) but first gold has one last dance.
BTC - Don't Buy the Dip!The problem with wanting to buy the Bitcoin dip lies in knowing where the dip actually is. And in the case of Bitcoin, using conventional logic to determine the latter simply will not do. That is so because the crypto-king continues to epitomize the so-called "animal spirits".
Bitcoin's rally was, and continues to be, driven primarily by greed. Traders can be expected to want to go long at the first possible time for the same reason. Hence, buying/selling discrepancies are likely to be created at every new dip, bolstering the adverse volatility in the market. However, the market is long overdue for a sizable correction, and the BTC may dive below 42k and head towards the psychologically significant support level at 30000.00.
What can be asserted with fair confidence is that the eventual dip would not be followed by a V-Shaped rebound. Rather, the new correction is likely to be concluded with more erratic price fluctuations.
Do not rush to buy in at all costs because there are plenty of reasons to expect a deeper correction. Watch the Fibonacci retracement levels and the moving averages.
Technical Formula for Understanding MARKET PSYCHOLOGYI lost a lot of money in Tehran Stock Exchange. Because simply I arrived too late. I read a lot in past year and now I can say why I lost a lot of money and how can prevent it in future.
It's simply the psychology of the market. Retailers like me get in when everybody says that something is good and profitable; Seriously Everybody!
Tonight I was thinking about a technical formula of analyzing market psychology to find better entries in markets and I came up with this.
There is 4 waves in every market/stock/digital coin/etc.
Wave Zero:
Smart money come here. It happen in things that are very cheap and nobody talks about them. Wealthy investors never buy expensive thing, remember!
On the chart you can se a slight rise in overall volume but price do not show a big rise. It respect the resistance. Price don't break it's prior resistance but the bottom price rises.
You can see higher lows in the chart but no higher high. Smart money controls the price and didn't buy a lot in one week. Because they don't want people get noticed yet. So they keep buying a long period but their positions sizes are low.
After buying 75% of their desired volume, they but the other 25% faster. So you can see a rise in price, higher highs and higher low and finally the breakout happens and first wave starts.
Wave One:
Obvious rise in price and volume but still not everybody knows. News agencies don't talk about it yet. The only group who find out are seasoned traders. They are going to buy in the pullback of this wave. So this wave has the shortest retracement. Because there is not a lot of rise in price and experienced traders have bigger money than retailers.
Wave Two:
This wave has the longest candles and biggest gain. Everybody is happy now and enjoy the profits. At the end of this wave news agencies start to talk about it. Gurus publish some analysis and say that it can go even higher. Slowly retailers getting noticed. But they are not confident about it yet.
Smart money starts to sell about 50% of it's positions. Because retailers don't have a lot of money it takes time for them to buy the pullback so we have a longer retracement than Wave One. Notice, smarter retailers come here and others just come when the Wave Three starts.
Wave Three:
This is Euphoria. People are exaggerating about the stock. They think it worth a lot higher and they think it can go to the moon. Here we see lower volumes than prior waves because in this stage retailers move price higher and they don't have a lot of money. Slowly sells rise. Volume keep rising but the price lose it's momentum and the candles getting short until red candles and dojis show up. BOOM! Smart money and the experienced traders start selling all of their stocks.
From here you can see price getting down and people get nervous. This is the real sign of down trend.
So summary:
How to find out where is smart money?
Go search cheap things in weekly timeframes. Find something that is consolidated and you can see a slight rise in overall volume. Price shows higher lows but no higher high; inside consolidation. It's not a good entry for retailers because price can stays here for months. There is no sound about this stock in market.
How to recognize first wave?
Obvious rise in price and volume. Price broke from a consolidation lately. Nobody noticed it yet; it's very important! Don't look in news and guru groups for good stocks/digital coins/etc because if they know we are not in first wave. A few knows about it and they are hopeful. It's Optimism phase. The last sign is that retracement doesn't last longer than 4-5 weeks. After breakout from top of wave one, buy the pullback to the broken resistance. It's the best entry for retailers.
When to sell?
When news start talking about your stock sell 50%. Highest candles, highest volume, longer pullback, people who have it are joyful and excited and non experts look for opportunities to buy the stock. These are signs of second wave. It's the excitement phase.
After another breakout from top the last wave starts. You can see retailers are super optimist about the stock. No bad News about the stock but you can see decreased volume. You can sell other 50% here. It's the Euphoria.
People who invest in long term can benefit from above explanation.
One last tip: traders who work with Elliott waves, the first wave is the first Elliott wave, the second one is the third Elliott wave and the last wave in my explanation is the fifth wave in Elliott theory.
Tell me if it helped you or you have other ways to recognize market psychology by technical analysis.
Why using automated trading? #1There are a couple of reasons why to use automated trading, like better risk management, human error, easier to diversify, and Psychology
In this post, the focus is on psychology.
Here are some of the cognitive biases that affect trading:
Loss aversion - the tendency to prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains. It feels much worse losing $100 than the joy from earning $100.
(A huge topic, the researchers got the Nobel prize for this)
Sunk cost - the tendency to treat money that already has been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent in the future.
In trading, this effect with loss aversion making people not cut their losses. When we enter a trade we know that a loss can happen, if the losses are not cut the rest of the money in the account can be lost too.
The disposition effect - is an anomaly discovered in behavioral finance. It relates to the tendency of investors to sell assets that have increased in value while keeping assets that have dropped in value. Traders tend to lock in gains and ride losses.
Recency bias - a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones, in trading, a streak of losses can demoralize a trader even if he had a good run for a long time.
I don't know of a system that works 100% of the time.
There are more psychological effects, but those are the main ones.
Using automated trading, allows traders to reduce these effects on trading because the stocks are chosen in advance, the risk is defined, the entry and exit are calculated and executed by the algorithm (Unless rare events are happening).
In the past, I was sometimes afraid of entering a good trade or cut my loss quickly, due to these effects and wishful thinking that the price will do what I want.
The Psychological DANGER of Counter-Trend TradingI see many traders consistently trying to fade the trend, but be careful.
In this post, I will explain the psychological problem that can arise from it.
Every time you get something that you want in life or that is pleasurable, you get positive reinforcement,
and your brain says "I want more of that stuff"
and then the brain says: "Keep doing what you are doing" ---> Behavior is learned. (Your neurons in your brain got linked together).
Once the behavior is learned, and the neurons linked, it is very hard (near impossible according to behavioral science) to extinguish this learned behavior! Old habits die hard.
Thus, the trader keeps doing the behavior that over the long run will generate losses. WHY? because reversal points are momentary while trends are prolonged and if the trader is trying to constantly make money out of the market, he continues to do the learned behavior, hoping that "NOW there must be a big correction", even though a correction can be many months in the future.
So now you are probably asking: "ok Mr. Ph.D. in psychology, what is your solution? I already learned the wrong behavior, am I doomed?"
According to science, there is hope, instead of trying to extinguish the behavior, you need to re-write it with the new behavior (replace it with a new behavior).
What does it mean in a trading context?
That means that if you are in the past got burned from counter-trend trading, it is recommended to join the trend --> you will generate profits ---> positive reinforcement ---> newly learned behavior ---> ah-ha moment
Keep Alert CPI reported Lower INTENTIONALLYThis is a risk caused by benefit conflict.
Why gov reports CPI lower than prediction?
(1) hide the fact of inflation
(2) higher CPI => investors ask higher interest rate of bonds => gov pays more interest on debts
(3) higher interest rate of bonds => not good for non-growing stocks => companies collect less money from stock markets but need to release more bonds.
I have bought USD. Should I cut loss?
(1) I guess it is stop hunting. If stop hunting is executed, I consider buy more.
What we can do?
(1) I encourage people expose more evidences show CPI is actually higher than gov claims.
(2) Inflation is different from devaluation of debts. If consumer price becomes cheaper, we have more money to return debts, so cheaperer consumer price can also approaches devaluation of debts.
"Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!"Market Psychology simplified
Carrying on the Simsons theme - In the last couple of months, I have written several educational posts & have been lucky enough to see some being selected as "editor picks" After writing some more serious ones, I wanted to write some other posts to have a laugh.
I had some great comments, replies, and requests on the back of the first Bart one. Actually enjoyed the art side of it more than I expected.
Back in February, I posted a post about market psychology.
With feedback from Bart and some requests on psychology, I thought I would write a post using the "Simpsons" to explain the phases. So you have a little daft fun, with a topic worth covering from a technical perspective.
Phase one
Phase one is Hope we hope we are correct in our analysis, we hope that the market goes in our favour, we hope for moon shots and Lambo's. Think of hope and we think of words like aspiration, desire, wish, expectation, ambition & dream. Hope is what we are feeling before a trade is placed.
Phase 2
As a trader, we feel optimistic as the trade goes in our favour, we get excited and dream of the possibilities. What if this goes all the way, what if this account makes me! Bragging rights, money banked - Life doesn't get much better. We can start to relax and unwind and get ourselves into a good place, mentally.
Phase 3
Belief - at this stage, nothing could go wrong... Well, we hope and maybe pray for. Trading, things never really play out to plan. We see crazy swings in our favour and wild pullbacks. (often enough to give us heart attacks) So we listen to chilled music, we talk to ourselves & we say a silent little prayer that this is the one! My analysis was correct, I am quietly optimistic about this trade, Lambo - here we come, just a little further.
Phase Four
Thrill!!! What else is there? At this stage, we are winning in life. Now we are picking the colour of the Lambo. Nothing can hurt us now. In trading terms, this is where life often comes to kick us in the ass! But who cares, we are on top of the world!!!
Bitcoin is going to the moon - I bought at $59,000 it's now at $61k I can't lose...
The fifth phase
Complacency - now back enjoying the beer, we got some great paper gains and we will never see $50k again. Death to Dollar, Rise to Bitcoin and all that! Let's chillout.
Phase 6
As the Pullback comes - we start to get a little anxious, will it go below my entry? What? it can't go there, no way. I am an early adopter, I was in and now it's not continuing up???? What the hellllllllll. I can't sleep, I don't want to eat, I'll just take a triple Espresso with a splash of Red Bull.
The 7th Phase
Denial - This can't be a trend change? It must be an aggressive pullback. Why is it going so low? I don't believe it, I only have 30X leverage on my trade. I'll hold out, it will hit $1 Million a Bitcoin by the end of the week. We hold and hope! Until the leverage gives a margin call...
Phase 8
Panic! Pure PANIC Bitcoin falling through my $56,000 floor. I'm 30x Leveraged, please don't drop, please don't. How will I tell the wife I used the kids as collateral? I have to sell out, I can't take another red candle.
Maybe the little sprite is toying with me!
Phase 9
Why you little.... Yes, Anger sets in. You are out at a healthy loss. It's gone and beat you. Blasted crypto! Must be a scam! I already put a deposit on my pink Lambo. Told the Mrs she could have that diamond ring on Friday. Now what?!>?!
The 10th phase
Watching Bitcoin move on up, beyond 60, up through 70, into the hundreds. You feel depressed. Trading might not be for you, Bitcoin was a scam. The US government played me. Where next? Work on Monday, How do I tell the wife about the diamond? How do I explain to the Lambo dealer I'd like my deposit back. "Doh, it's a deposit. I've last that as well!"
Bitcoin was just an analogy here - these phases happen over and over again. Nothing new, they will repeat themselves over and over again. To visualise this on a chart, you need to go to the psychology post linked below. To go deeper into this, It's worth reading "Trading in the zone".
Hope you liked the images and content!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Gamestop announced they might sell up to 3.5 million sharesGME management has the intention to sell some shares, with the goal of getting $1 billion out of the sale, they registered 3.5 million new shares.
To get $1 billion at a $150 price they would have to sell 6.66 million shares. The ADV dropped to 20 million and I think is likely to stay above the period where the company was undervalued lost and forgotten with 3 million ADV. That sale is not that big it can be absorbed by the volume.
The share price gapped down by 10% in the pre-market yesterday (nothing out of the ordinary) then I assume as the market opened "diamond hands" (retail investors participating in online forums) bought up the company.
The noise around the company probably helped them as their sales grew by 11% in the last 2-3 months, and their March sales were up by 18% compared to last year (US lockdowns started mid-late march and European ones too).
As far as I know they are not officially telling wallstreetbet many (new) users to support them, but they are taking advantage of the hype and bagholding mentality.
In their filing I think they say something along the lines of "We issue new shares. Maybe price go down. Remember risks", the typical useless and mandatory warning to protect investors from themselves "warning drinking bleach might harm you", "cigarettes are bad for health", "do not eat this tube of glue" and so on.
I never heard of Gamestop before this, or perhaps I did if they made game reviews I'm not sure but I'm sure I don't remember for sure (you still here?). What I can recognize for sure is Micromania.
Last time Gamestop had a billion in cash they used it to purchase french retailer Micromania which everyone in that country surely has walked by before, and they later merged it with another company to sell mangas and movies too to address the decline in gaming sales.
Their brand surely is recognizable. So after only 10 years they finally decide to go online, now that their public price is 10 times their actual valuation.
Since their name is so mainstream and much of their "investors" are random unsophisticated people as they say, maybe they should focus more on their public image sort of like Elon Musk does, maybe they do not want to become complete master manipulators like this freak but they could play with what they have while they are rebuilding (or trying to) their dead company.
If I was advising the GME management I'd say to make sure the price stays in a range: bagholders breakeven if it goes up, and panic sell if the price goes down enough.
Literally announcing you're going to sell 3.5 million, 10 million, even 5000 million shares won't get them to sell don't worry, it's "just fud", I bet to half these people it's just a ticker with an indicator and the elusive sky people known as "the big guys" are trying to get them to sell, after all thinking logically is for trolls that "just don't get it", but the price going down too much will trigger their deep fear emotions and get them all selling at the same time. This is not crypto you can't manipulate the price, it would be very efficient here, a shame.
Elon Musk is playing with "simple people" emotions, and the SEC don't seem to mind, the "common folk" even sees him as a hero so why not spread a tiny bit of fomo? Within legal borders.
"GameStop Announces At-The-Market Equity Offering Program"
"Company Can Sell Up to 3.5 Million Shares and Intends to Use Any Proceeds to Further Accelerate Transformation and Strengthen Balance Sheet"
news.gamestop.com
I am curious, who are the people buying actually? Bagholders averaging down? Or just random people that "buy when there is blood in the street"?
My own actions: Not buying, not selling.
Psychology. Traps. The reason and the possibility of pump +8200%I made the trading idea about this coin about trading in the channel this afternoon, and I remembered the miracles on the roller coaster of 2.5 years ago on this coin. After all, such games rarely come across in the market to leave such a colorful mark in memories. You do not often see pumps at 19 and 82 x, after accumulating 88 and 100 days. The numbers are not random. Pumping was with an acceptable volume for such a coin.
In my opinion, the project is scam, well, like everything in the crypto world. I absolutely do not believe in anything. I have only cold calculation in trading. No sympathy for scam. In my opinion, all crypto projects including everyone’s favorite “anonymous”, “decentralized” “Beethoven” are frauds, making real money thanks to stupid bidders. But, in addition to “making money” for those who believe that without doing anything, you can become a millionaire. I think the naive point of view is that the "big brother" wants to make all the poor and lazy people millionaires. But they believe in it, because they themselves are such. This faith and inaction will lead to sad consequences. In addition to making money on fools, the crypto market carries more interesting tasks. Which, in case of success of the experiment, will become a reality and the poor will become even poorer, states will receive unlimited power and control.
But, let's get back to this coin. The legend of the project is Blockchain's solution for the global dental industry. The legend, unlike other promising projects, is supported by the principle: “Someday we will turn the mountains”, at least by their activity. Confuses a large number of blocked coins. Which at the time of "X" can bring down the price on all exchanges to zero. Therefore, this coin is not for holding, but for speculation from a good entry point to the planned exit or exit from certain situations in the market. By the way, not one "holder" could not sell not only on the 80X pump, but in general I doubt that 2-3X even on the accumulation price, although I can be mistaken, as after the pump I did not monitor the transaction. Why, I will describe below.
I started trading this coin in late October or early November 2017. Started by accident. On another exchange, I fell into the "trap" that was made on this coin. A book of orders, the entire history of purchases / sales and the trades themselves in the market with bait were also very cleverly made, but here one zero in the price was superfluous. So in a second I remember about $ 600-700 evaporated. I began to understand, I understood what was happening, well, what happened, what happened. By the way, this case in the future made a lot of money, as this action began to be used en masse at one time mainly on exchanges such as Binance and HitBtc when listing coins. Each manipulation against you, with the correct understanding of the essence of the work, can be turned into a weapon against the manipulator.
Everyone can be wrong, including you. Your mistakes are an invaluable experience.
So the initial acquaintance with this coin was not very pleasant for me, but very useful for work in the future. Then I found where this coin is being traded with great liquidity and without "surprises." It turned out the HitBtc exchange. It was evident from the work on the coin that someone on this exchange was gaining a position on this asset. I quietly started to do it too. Immediately in my work I had not a small amount, but when I understood everything what was being done and on what scale, I substantially added money. Every day +10 20% to part of the position. Not a coin, but a cash cow. Paradoxically, no one wrote about this coin anywhere in the chats, including the exchange’s trobox. It was a taboo.
I will say this, this pump at first at 1900% then at 8200% for the majority of those who stuck to this instrument of trading was a big disappointment. Before the growth, after 1.5-2 months of work in accumulation with strong volatility, I increased the initial amount of entry many times. Traded inside the day. At first I copied the actions of the “major player”, but when my position on the coin grew decently - teamwork through numbers. The work is clear, not complicated, without risk.
But the elephant climbed into the market and began to tear down the walls. Perhaps this "elephant" was this major player or the exchange itself. At first, we wanted to keep the price from rising in order to keep the price in the corridor. But nothing came of it. Money forces were not equal.
The biggest disappointment is when about 70% of the position was thwarted by + 300%. I didn’t think that it was possible, as the position was not small, that’s buying + 300% as an obvious not healthy thing. But what happened, it happened. but then the price was pumped up + 1900%
All further price movements I had to work with those coins that remained. It is good that the high price gave a larger spread, and therefore more freedom to manipulate work within the day. Played by what was left. Gradually increasing the number of coins on rising prices. At any moment I could leave the market, like any exit price - for me there was already a profit. Above + 1000% of the accumulation zone the game stopped, I already had enough. That and the liquidity to work a large amount was not there already, the games began for the schedule, but not for earnings. Then the green light is very greedy and stupid people.
Be less greedy than other people and as a result you will be richer than other people.
Let me remind you that the price soared by more than + 8000%. Why did this happen? Why did manage to raise the price? Why were there mostly inadequate buyers, but no sellers? There are several reasons, I will partially describe what happened so that you see similar manipulations in the future and know what to do and what not to do. By the way, similar manipulations are now happening on some coins, I won’t write the name, how it will look like an advertisement. I don’t need that. But, or will they be able to repeat this? More likely no than yes.
___________________________________________________________________
THE REASONS FOR THE HUGE PRICE GROWTH AND THE ABSENCE OF SELLERS.
1) "Killing faith" in a long downtrend. 88 days from the day of listing. The course is just down. (but only for the hamster).
The main thing is to "kill faith" below, "give faith above." In the market, as a rule, those who in the “non-faith” phase say that they do not believe in perspective, in the “faith” phase they will most likely acquire. The world is cyclical, events go in cycles, the flow of the crowd is cyclical, the thinking of the governed lends itself to cycles.
2) Manipulation of the exchange with dcn / eth and dcn / btc pairs. This was the most important manipulation of the discharge of passengers. It was not possible to lower the price; nobody wanted to sell. They were not going to leave even at + 30% and above. In order to strengthen the dump, they announced a delist from the exchange of the dcn / btc pair.
It’s not the understanding of people that they really do not affect the price movement, but are just fuel in someone else’s game, which makes them this fuel for movement.
Whoever had a big position and the corresponding amount of BTC for the terrible visual presentation for hamsters put up walls pouring in them every time a huge sales volume with a gradual price rushing. At that time, the exchange blocked specifically on several days coins on the exchange’s account with many traders. But the panic sat on. Everyone wanted to leave the market, because it was very painful to watch how the price goes down. But they could not do anything, as for "technical reasons" the exchange blocked coins. But major market participants (perhaps the "exchange itself") held the idea of "killing the faith."
3) Bad news in front of the pump . There were a lot of big transfers to the exchange from wallets, many holders also surrendered ... Let me remind you the input / output was opened, but the trading account on this coin was blocked due to the fact that the dcn / btc pair will be delisting soon (those with orders were in this pair). Then, just before the delist of one of the DCN / BTC pairs, when the price dropped significantly by the game, all the accounts of the "traders" were unlocked. Naturally, everyone tried to sell on the market, because soon they would not sell where, as on the other pair there was no liquidity at all. Those who bought up naturally put up weak buy orders, so that hamsters had no hope of a price reversal.
A well-run crowd works like one very stupid person.
The interesting thing is the psychology of the crowd. I’m sure who sold “To get out at any price” after less than 3 weeks they bought from + 1000% and probably many people really got apathy for trading and a feeling of “lost profit” when the price during the pump reached + 8200% (82x) . It is probably painful to realize when you sell at a loss at the lowest price before the pump, and after such a short time you see such an increase.
4) Closed the input / output of coins before pumping coins naturally for "technical reasons". So no holder, with the exception of those who transferred coins to the exchange during the dump and did not have time to sell, could not use this pumped. Holders as always in flight ..
The more stupid a society is, the higher the percentage of earnings in it is for those who are smarter. Do not be one of many, be one among many.
5) After a while, the pair that was delisted from the exchange - DCN / BTC appeared again on the exchange.
6) Good news when pumping. On Twitter, the developers published the news in the manner: “DCN is the last hope of mankind” or “DCN will become the new Bitcoin” and similar nonsense in this spirit. In telegram chats, a similar FUD was also widely used. But the news has never moved or moved the price, they always move with money. News without money does not work. True, the crowd is convinced of the opposite.
6) The first pump at 1900% (19X). So called "Hamster Pump" , but my tongue does not turn + 1900% to call a hamster pump. But in this situation on this coin it was. I think any sane would go out without slowing down at such a price increase.
Then, after this pump, another pump happened, from the accumulation zone + 8200%. There were definitely no passengers on this pump anymore, therefore it was possible to raise the price in such a way by buying out own orders and making appearances of trade by luring hamsters.
Your first enemy is a lack of experience and knowledge. Your second enemy is greed and a sense of lost profits.
7) The presence of a lot of money from those who controlled the price. Without a good amount, this was not possible. You also need to consider that in addition to money (btc), it was necessary to have DCN coins "two or three bags" in order to direct the price. I think you understand who in this situation is the biggest player and initially has the most coins. Without an initially large position, it is very difficult for a trader to accumulate a large position in a short time, although in exceptional cases it is possible.
8) A clear, thoughtful, phased work plan for the manipulators in advance. Good knowledge of the psychology and thinking of the crowd.
This is an old thing, but it is possible for the conscious work and understanding of what is happening in reality in the bidding you will find this information useful. I think you understand that the exchange itself is partially involved in this manipulation. I do not think that exchanges will no longer sin by such manipulations. Be careful, be smart, don't be a herd.
If you understand what is happening in the trade - take part in the trade, if you do not understand - watch from the side.
I wish you all productive study and great profit in trade.
Trading habits that lead to SUCCESS...Plan for success but have no expectations... A lot of trading emotion comes from expectation. Traders expect the next trade to be a winner, they expect this month to be profitable, they expect the USD to become bearish, etc, etc. Having no expectations can really help to reduce trading emotions. Obviously, you should still stick with a strategy and do all you can to BE success, just don't expect to succeed.
Success will come as you unemotionally stick with a strategy that gives you an edge. Success comes from trading your strategy with consistency, not be giving-up when expectations are not met.
Trading habits that lead to SUCCESS...Keep yourself busy between trades... Work, run a business, study or play video games. Being busy between trades will help to keep your mind occupied and your emotions focused on something else.
As soon as emotion becomes involved in trading, everything will go pear-shaped.
Rhymes and Rhythms. What's your strength? HBAR:BTC As a Trader it's important to know your strengths... & your weaknesses. When you're self-aware you have no more excuses. It's not the markets fault, it's yours. Own it. And work on getting better tomorrow than you were today.
My trading personality is:
A "Patient Gem Fossicking, Value Investing, Swing Trader, with a specialization in capitulation."
Identifying the following strengths and weaknesses is how I came to understand what my trading personality is. What's yours?
My strengths:
I trade better looking at 'the bigger picture' (1 day bars plus)
My best trades come during capitulation (for entry's and exits on long term swing trades)
Ability to get big in my best setups (having confidence in my analysis allows me to comfortably get in with size)
I have excellent visual 'pattern recognition' (allows me to identify patterns that others often miss)
I am extreemly patient (can sit in front of the screen, analyze the carts and not take a single trade for months)
My weaknesses:
Short time frame scalping (Too much information to process & patterns are less reliable)
Holding trades that go against me because "I really like the project" (next minute f**k it... guess I'm an investor now)
Incorrect position sizing (Incorrect risk in some shitcoin trades)
Not entering and exiting trades correctly (Often 'all in' & 'all out' in one go)
Trading setups that aren't my best
The reason for sharing some of my strengths and weaknesses is to get you thinking about what yours are. A good way to identify them is to create a 'playbook' of your setups. Record your trades in a journal as they happen. Review your winners and losers daily. Analyze yourself. What did you do well and what could you improve on? Once you know what your best & worst setups are, you can work on reducing your least profitable trades and start taking more of your most profitable trades. Journaling will also help you identify any good and bad habits you may have. When you have a good idea of where your best trades are, the next step is to learn how to get bigger in these 'best setups'. If you're interested in learning more about this process I highly recommend reading "The Playbook" by Mike Bellafiore. If you're struggling as a trader, the answers to most of your problems are in that book. Good luck!
Oh and as for this HBAR:BTC chart.. They say history never repeats, But it defiantly seems to rhyme. One of my strengths is 'pattern recognition' and it looks to me like a moonshot is incoming for HBAR... Just saying.
Can this pattern fail? Absolutely. Am I in this trade? Definitely.
Never Trust. Verify.
D.Y.O.R. Not Financial Advice Just an Observation.
Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds.
Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key . Capital preservation above all else.
HOLO Work of a major market participant in the downward channelThe chart shows the logic of a large market participant in a descending channel using the Holo (HOT) coin as an example. At the moment, 103rd place in terms of coinmarketcap capitalization.
Everything is shown in detail and described on the graph. Remember, with the correct understanding of the work, the one who adapts always has the opportunity to earn much more in% ratio for the one who controls the price.
Be less greedy for others and, as a result, you will be an order of magnitude richer.
Forget once and for all the fairy tales of widely circulated books on the topic of trading for the management of the masses, that the totality of actions of small market participants direct the price. This is only partially true. Manipulative substitution of concepts. Small market participants (fuel of price movement) are always directed to make certain price movements depending on the desires and rationality of the actions of a limited small number of market participants.
The bulk of market participants always lose, it's only a matter of time. If these characters of the trading game win, it is only in order to fulfill the unconscious task of the minority. There are basic management tools in trading borrowed from the religions of controlling the masses through instinctive weakness and fear. Money and the desire to own it is the most powerful religion. The weaker the participant in the trading game and the less prepared he is, the more his desires are inflated. This is used in their management. The crypto market is a controlled horde of very poor and greedy people. The low threshold of "entering the market" makes it possible to pump into it a lot of rapidly burning "fuel" (weak market participants).
Playing along with the crowd in what it believes in and what it wants, the illusion of understanding the ongoing process is created. The task of large market participants is to further raise the price for the euphoria of small participants (decrease in the number of sales, growth of faith in the "retention" of the traded asset, growth of faith in TA rules). The end result is always the same, regardless of the instrument being traded and the market. Most always lose.
Wake up from the imposed programmed illusions of algorithmic behavior in the market by the rules of the minority.
Check out the attached trading ideas. Also I have over 50 trading / learning ideas on this site. I show all training on a live chart on my trading ideas, I have no wangs and witchcraft of success in the history of the chart. Develop, acquire knowledge and experience. Upgrade them for real trade. Less theory, more practice. Theory without practice is zero.
Trading is a higher psychology, understanding the desires of people and as a result of their future actions using numbers and a graph without contact with people themselves. Pump your mind and collect experience
Bitcoin ST Update (March 10th 2021)Bitcoin/USD rate (March 10th 2021 through April 1st 2021)
Low: $53,321
High: $85,174 - $85,688
It looks like we have about 6-8 more weeks of bullish moves left.
Next significant targets are as follows:
From current price of $56k, up to $85k, correct down to $63.3k, and then right back on path towards $122k and $188k. I believe this run could last until about April 13th/14th 2021 before the real bear market could start for a couple years. October 2021 looks like it could yield another leg of a crash.
The paths I've drawn here are just to serve as a general trajectory for what levels bitcoin could fluctuate within. I believe bitcoin can hit $80k within the month, by at least March 22nd, and then hopefully the $85k target will happen by March 26th. Bearish reaction for a few days down to $63k, and then bounce back up to new ATHs and continue on towards $120k and $188k in April. That's only if everything continues to ramp up even further, going "parabolic," etc. This could be the very last phase of the bull market, but it definitely looks like profit could come easy before we turn around.
I based this forecast off of past history and fractals in combination with where I believe the true fibonacci levels are sitting right now. With the fractal included, it brings me to expect $188k levels at the end of this run. I could be very wrong but I will still be watching closely and trying to update this as we go.
Related ideas that led to this conclusion included below:
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
Gold analysis (09.03.2021) - "End of correction?"Hi all
Very interesting place for GOLD. After quite positive news with vaccinations, GOLD as a safe-haven asset lost its growing momentum and experienced correction that as for now stopped at the psychological level of 1700 and Fibo 61.8 which are main arguments to possibly go long over here.
Feel free to comment, give your thoughts. Would appreciate it if you like it!
Disclaimer!
This post does not provide financial advice. Always do your own analysis. Be aware that only you are responsible for your trades. Trade safe and keep in mind the risk!
Trading Habits that lead to SUCCESS... Have a trading schedule. Start, finish and check the charts the same time everyday. Many new traders never develop a trading routine. This leads to them checking the charts too often or having long breaks between trades.
[Market Breakdown 5] CHFJPYYou can see that we are currently sitting around a major Sell region.
We have received a Double Top formation.
We have received a solid Bearish candle.
We have received a Monthly -68 Fib completion.
These are all nice indications for a possible short set-up.
Trader Psychology --- Can a Trader Take Drugs? No.
Trading is a stressful job. When in a trade, you can have difficulty sleeping soundly and enjoying your free time. And I believe a lot of inexperienced traders maybe tempted to turn to drugs in order to cope with the stress and anxiety----as a kind of temporary escapism from the anxiety.
Drug taking for this reason is a bad idea, and if you start dabbling with drugs then you should correct your lifestyle, or change jobs. I believe you can't be a good trader and take drugs because drugs alter your state of mind and thus your perception of the markets. Drugs cause euphoria and other chemical highs that may encourage stupid risk taking, which is deadly in the markets.
If you feel anxiety?
You should chart out a trading plan and ideology, and use stop losses. I often don't use stop losses, but if I'm anxious about a trade, I use them. They certainly help to reduce anxiety. If your timeframe is long, you might implement a stop loss after a profit is secured, so you can step back and let the instrument run, and then periodically move the stop loss.
The only intoxicant I find improving of my trading is red wine and brandy. Red wine makes you drowsy and you sleep better, and a finger of brandy before bed often encourages nice dreams. Red wine is also a depressive, and a depressed alcoholic should easily out-trade some drugged-up hoper.
⭐ PSYCHOLOGY of TILT⭐ ⭐ LOSING TILT ⭐Hi, My friends! Let's go Forward to knowledge💪🏻Today i made psychological EDU post for You😊
Psychology of Tilt: Losing Tilt
Reaction 1. The desire to recoup with increased risk
It's difficult to find a market player, who has never had a strong desire to recoup and didn't go on rash actions because of this.
When we using the term "tilt" most often we mean precisely this reaction. We can say, that it's the main variety of tilt. And that was given the greatest attention in scientific research, including the desire to recoup is the basis of pathological gambling.
Among the factors contributing to the emergence of the desire to recoup can be identified:
📌- Dispersion of the game
📌- Bet size
📌- game speed
📌- Frequency "near misses"
The last factor needs clarification. “Near Missing” (near misses) is the outcome of a bet in which the player was defeated, but was close to winning.
“Near misses” are less pleasant for a person, than losing without a chance of winning, but at the same time cause a desire to continue the game.
1. Explanation through the theory of perspectives
According to this theory, the function of the subjective value of wins and losses has a specific form, and after losing a person falls into that area of the function, which is characterized by a desire for risk. This is easier to show on the chart.
Suppose, after losing, the player gets to point A.
Due to the features of the left side of the function, any further loss (further movement to the left side) will have less subjective significance for it than a gain (reverse movement to the right side) of the same size. And since potential gains become more significant than potential losses, the desire for risk increases.
This function of subjective value is an empirically established pattern.
Features of the perception of losses and wins are also characteristic of a person's perception of other phenomena.
In other words, a person’s perception of gains and losses in the manner described by them is simply a property of the human psyche. Thus, the desire for risk after losses caused by such a perception is also simply a certain basic characteristic of a person.
2. Explanation through a player error.
Player error is a common misconception in understanding random events. A person who is prone to this error believes that the more often a random event occurred in the past, the less likely it will happen in the future and vice versa. This mistake is based on the belief that random manism should not generate extended series of the same type.
Due to this mistake, the player after a series of failures will consider that the probability of his future wins has increased and as a result will continue the game with special persistence.
It is difficult to argue that the player’s mistake contributes to the desire to recoup with an increased risk.
3. Explanation through the threat of "I".
The emerging threat of "I" causes various protective reactions. One of these defensive reactions is the desire to recoup with increased risk: quickly returning the lost money, the player will retain the idea of himself as a fairly strong plus player.
It is also worth considering that the threat of “I” is a well-known trigger of anger. And anger mobilizes a person’s energy, instills in him a feeling of confidence and strength, and prepares for an attack.
Summing up the consideration of various approaches to explaining the desire to recoup with an increased risk, it is worth noting that these approaches are not mutually exclusive. They rather complement each other. In other words, most people may indeed have some basic tendency to increase risk after losing, which is reinforced by the player’s mistake and perceiving the loss as a threat to “I”.
Reaction 2. A sharp risk reduction
Not all players are characterized by an increase in risk after a significant loss. Having suffered serious losses, some traders can continue trading, but use only the most reliable strategies,
Speaking about the desire to recoup, they almost always assume that this desire is associated with increased risk. However, it is important to understand that lowering the risk does not necessarily mean a complete rejection of attempts to recoup.
A reason for avoiding risk after a defeat may be a hot hand fallacy error. A “hot hand” error is another misconception in understanding random events. The essence of the error lies in the fact that after observing a long series of events of the same type, people cease to believe in random outcomes and predict that a series of events of the same type will continue.
As a result of this mistake, a player after a series of defeats may begin to think that under the circumstances, his chances of winning are objectively underestimated (“they started a twist against me”) and make a logical decision about the need to reduce the risk.
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