Recommendations for new tradersNo matter the size of your deposit, begin trading with small amounts: $10, $100. As you gain experience, you can increase your deposit, but be ready to lose it. This will help you understand market participant behavior.
- Trade only with funds you can afford to lose; losing them shouldn't affect your quality of life.
- Don't rush to leave your main job; let trading be a hobby initially. It might turn into something more over time, but that's not guaranteed.
- More trades don't equal more profit. Sometimes fewer trades can be more profitable than many daily trades. Without experience, it can be challenging to know when to stay out of the market.
- Traders spend 90% of their time analyzing instruments and circumstances. Forget rushing; opportunities appear and disappear daily. Learn to wait. Begin with paper trading to get accustomed to the process.
- Note the time spent as well as profit or loss. Regardless of your preferred timeframes, start with longer ones like monthly, weekly, and daily charts for an overall view.
- Markets are cyclical; they don't rise or fall indefinitely. Reversals often happen unexpectedly. Base decisions on a well-thought-out plan, not emotions.
- Develop your own strategy based on your data and temperament. Don't ask others where to buy or sell; they don't know. If an instrument has risen several hundred percent from the bottom, entering without stops is irrational.
- If it has gained several thousand percent, avoid entering without waiting for a significant pullback. Even if indicators suggest a specific direction, always consider a 1% chance of the opposite happening to avoid significant losses. Always manage risks.
- Regularly withdraw a portion of your profits. Understand why you're investing your time. Ideally, withdraw all your initial investment over time to make operating the deposit easier psychologically.
- There are no universal strategies. Your strategy should be proven but flexible to market conditions. What works in a rising market may not work in a falling one, and vice versa. Adapt quickly and manage risks skillfully to make money.
Psychology
Seeing others make profitable trades can lead to envyFor new traders, market decisions are often driven by emotions like fear and greed, rather than well-established trading strategies. While much has been written about this, there are other significant factors that influence traders' decisions:
Social Pressure: Traders often make trades based on the opinions and actions of others, rather than their own strategies and the real market situation. This social influence can come from chat rooms, online communities, or social media, where opinions are frequently voiced by other inexperienced traders.
Envy: Seeing others make profitable trades can lead to envy. This emotion pushes traders to make impulsive decisions, such as entering trades without proper analysis, hoping to replicate others' successes. Instead of waiting for their own signals, they act on impulse and lose control.
Common Mistakes Among New Traders:
Reacting to News and Opinions: Rather than following their own trading vehicle (strategy), novice traders often react to news or opinions from others. This leads to decisions that are not grounded in their own analysis.
Overactivity: Many mistakes stem from the feeling of needing to always be active in the market. New traders see others trading successfully and feel pressured to do the same. This can result in excessive trading and taking positions without proper signals.
Paralysis from Fear: When a genuinely good opportunity arises, traders who have been overly active may be too paralyzed by fear to act. Their energy is wasted on meaningless transactions, and negative emotions cloud their judgment.
Impact on Trading Performance:
Wasted Energy: Excessive, impulsive transactions deplete a trader’s energy and focus, leading to poor decision-making when real opportunities present themselves.
Negative Emotions: Constantly reacting to others and not following a personal strategy can result in frustration and dissatisfaction, which negatively impact self-esteem and confidence in one’s trading vehicle.
Loss of Control: Acting out of fear, greed, social pressure, or envy leads to a loss of control over trading decisions, causing more losses and missed opportunities.
Key Takeaways for New Traders:
Develop a Personal Strategy: Rely on your own trading plan and analysis.
Stay Patient: Wait for your entries and avoid impulsive trading.
Manage Emotions: Keep emotions like fear, greed, envy, and social pressure in check to maintain control over your trading decisions.
Focus on Long-Term Success: Avoid excessive trading and focus on making informed, strategic trades.
By being aware of these psychological factors and actively working to mitigate their impact, new traders can make more informed and rational trading decisions.
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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How to go through a LOSING STREAK better?
🍏1. Everything starts with preparation and true expectations. Losing streaks will happen from time to time, accept it if you want to be a good trader. Even the best traders on the planet have them. But it’s the reaction to them that separates good and bad traders.
Know your probability of losing streak, based on your own backtesting and accept them before they even happen. Keep longterm focus!
🍋2. Make sure you’re practicing process based trading, not outcome based. Before every trade, ask yourself if anyone in the whole worlds can say the outcome of any individual trade? The answer is obvious - no one can do it. So is it rational to build expectation of a specific market moves in this individual trade, or nearest several trades - that they are completely uncertain and you are working with random distribution of your edge.
🥥3. Once in a streak, remind yourself about your testing. See that over the past 200 or more trades, you were profitable, at least RR wise. These 5-6 losing trades you’re having now are just a very small part of a huge data collection you did before, and they are part of random distribution.
🍈4. In a losing streak, there’s usually an urge to trade more to earn the lost $ amount back. It’s a mistake, as overtrading will lead to only one outcome - even more loss in short or longterm perspective.
🍎5. In the past, I wanted to reach some state of unbreakable consistency, "once and for all", and when I thought I did it, I started to expect things to be easy from now on and not to struggle or put effort, cause now I'm fully consistent. And that was exact moment when everything fell apart.
The truth is, at least for me and for now, is that I need to make good decisions - mentally and technically - EVERY DAY and EVERY MOMENT, to actually prove I'm consistent. And consistency is dynamic, I'll continue to work on it, it's like gardening, when you need to put some effort everyday and it's never fixed or done, at least for me.
Control of EmotionsTrading in the cryptocurrency market often resembles a marathon where everyone aims to be the first. Unlike running, where there's only one winner, multiple traders can succeed in the crypto marathon. However, success in trading involves serious psychological work, which we'll discuss today.
Everyone aspires to achieve their goals and be successful. Beginners in any field need to go through a learning curve, gradually honing their skills. The crypto market is not about luck; it requires constant self-improvement, learning from mistakes, and analyzing actions. The psychology of crypto trading involves a set of rules, methods, and actions to ensure successful trading, profit-making, and minimizing unavoidable failures.
A professional trader approaches trading with a focus on results and a realistic assessment of risky situations. Financial success, in the form of net profit, is the ultimate goal.
Let's explore the basic psychological tools used by professionals for successful trading:
Always at Hand
The whole world of cryptocurrencies is in your pocket.
Don't Think About Defeat
When starting a trade, don't focus on potential losses. Such thoughts set you up for failure from the outset. Be confident and avoid dwelling on the fear of making mistakes. While mistakes will happen, treat them as valuable lessons and continue improving your trading skills.
Visualize
Although not a scientific method, psychologists emphasize the importance of visualization. By visualizing success, you can block out fears of making mistakes and focus on achieving your goals effectively. Visualize yourself executing your strategy professionally and accurately, then act accordingly.
Be a Recluse
Cryptocurrency trading is a solitary activity. Ignore other people's opinions and avoid external interference. Your forecast accuracy will improve when you analyze market situations independently, without relying on others' advice.
Self-Realization Comes First
While trading in the crypto market is finance-related, view it as a creative process that should bring you satisfaction. Be confident in yourself and your success, and see trading as a means of self-fulfillment. This mindset will help you navigate the chaotic and unpredictable market as a tool for success.
Think About the Risks
Never risk funds you aren't prepared to lose. Consider potential losses when creating your strategy. Stick to your loss limits, even if the temptation for larger trades is high. Sometimes, multiple small trades can be more profitable than one big trade.
Discipline
Avoid reacting to sudden emotions or news. Trade according to your pre-developed plan without deviation. In trading, discipline is synonymous with success. This is particularly crucial for novice traders, as the volatile market often puts psychological pressure on them.
Control of Emotions
Monitor your emotional state and avoid trading when influenced by certain news or events. Emotional trading leads to losses. If you notice impulsive decision-making, take a break to calm down.
Vacation
Everyone needs breaks. If emotions and feelings drive you, take a break and avoid thinking about trading, assets, or cryptocurrencies. Engage in activities you enjoy and spend time with loved ones to recharge.
Statistics
Keep detailed statistics. This advice is valuable for both beginners and experienced traders. Record the number of transactions per day, profit and loss balance, positions, and other indicators. Analyze this information weekly. Statistics are a great way to create an effective strategy.
By incorporating these psychological tools, traders can navigate the cryptocurrency market more effectively, enhancing their chances of success and minimizing losses.
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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Social Media - and its danger!Social Media... the part of the Internet that is very dangerous when it comes to promises, money, and wealth.
We've all seen it: on social media, you can supposedly make millions in under 15 minutes. Pictures with a Lamborghini and a TradingView chart above it...
Let's go through some thoughts new traders may not be aware of and how to look at them with a critical mind!
(🚩 -> Red Flag)
📍 MetaTrader / Think or Swim / NinjaTrader / cTrader 📍
There are more, but let's focus on the more popular ones.
Pictures of winning trades are useless when it comes to trading. Trading is done over years in a consistent manner, not over a few trades.
Pictures of MT5, NT, or any other platform can easily be faked.
You can set up your own little server for MetaTrader, play it out, and you have your fake trades.
📍 Fancy Cars / Travels / Houses 📍
Showing a fancy lifestyle is another big 🚩.
All those people with fancy cars have leased or rented them for the image of being successful. It's to lure you in with false promises!
(Although trading can be very fulfilling if you are willing to put in the work!)
📍 New Setup Every Few Weeks 📍
If a channel has a new setup every few weeks, this is only made for scamming new traders, not to have a setup that works.
(Think about it, if you have a setup that works, why would you change?)
Explore their profile, look for this pattern, and sometimes you will find it. Simple step :)
📍 Selling Courses / Mentorship 📍
You can learn all of trading for free.
TradingView has a very nice paper trading feature that you can use and a very unique ideas section where you can find all the information you need!
Here we come to a golden rule when it comes to starting trading: NEVER buy a course or mentorship. Never! You don't need it!
(And also, TradingView's paper trading is free!)
📍 Very Basic Information Available Only 📍
Trading is hard; trading needs a lot of concepts fitting together like RR-System, Money Management, Multi-Timeframe Analysis.
If you see a social media post with 1 chart with some boxes and another picture with a money screenshot, this is 100% fake.
You need A LOT more than 1 chart and a lot more knowledge than you can ever show on even 3 charts.
📍 AI 📍
Oh, we all love AI, but I'm afraid that AI is not in the picture (yet).
Pine can't code it, and the current state of "AI" is a "guessing" game.
(AI just guesses what comes next, in the form of vectors... it's extremely complex, but it doesn't exist in trading.)
📍 Indicators 📍
Indicators are a very nice thing to have AFTER you have your strategy down, not before.
There is no indicator that works on its own; you plug it in and it makes money... that doesn't exist!
(Think about it critically: if that existed, why wouldn't we solve world hunger?)
📍 Typical Selling Point Sentences 📍
"Learn trading in 15 minutes" or "This is all you need" or "Only trade for 10 minutes a day" are the typical scam titles that you see, and with those, you know 100% they are fake.
Trading is not done in 15 minutes, trading is hard work, and trading takes a long time to learn. There are no shortcuts.
📍 Things You Can Ask Them 📍
Typically speaking, they will not answer any of these questions because they can't.
Like "How do you calculate your position size with your current RR setup?" This means they studied this, and you can be sure they didn't :)
Or "How does leverage exactly work?" and like 99.99% of the YouTubers got it wrong.
But a very nice thing to ask is a simple "Can I have a broker statement of your account?" and boom, they are gone.
🏆 Golden Rules 🏆
Never buy anything (you can learn 100% everything for free).
Ask critical questions and follow up on them.
Trading is hard; there is no 15-minute setup.
Trading can't be 100% automated.
Odds and Psychology.Based on "Think fast and slow", people have two system thinking. System-1 is autonomous, always working in background (ie unconsciousness), lazy, intuitive, fast, has stereotypes. System-2 is rational, hard problem solving, takes effort and energy, cuts trough the BS, etc (ie consciousness).
Based on another book called "superforcasters" and some dude I forgot his name, best approach for odds is to have simple system; where 100% certain. 93% almost certain. 75% probable. 50% about even (or maybe). 25% probably not. 7% almost certainly not. 0% impossible. All forecast are subjective guesses.
The catch; If you think something is 100% - you would go allin with max lever. (If you dont) your beliefs or opinion go against your actions. If you dont believe it's wise to go allin - then odds are not actually 100%. If you are stressed about 93% spot, then maybe it might not be 93% after all. (1:14).
In key SPX areas, based on business cycle and TNX, logic says one odds (or System-2) and your intuition (or feel) says differently. You are either too bearish or too bullish.
This is a simple representation of concept.
Another key concept is that TIME <----> PROBABILITY are at opposite sides of coin. The closer or far away in time something - more or less risk, ie higher or lower probability.
BARBEQUE NATION: The Psychology of YOUR tradesEmotions play a significant role in trading and can have a profound impact on decision-making and overall trading performance. Here are some common emotions that traders experience and how they can influence trading behavior:
1. Fear:
Fear is a powerful emotion that often arises when traders face unexpected market movements or potential losses. It can lead to impulsive decisions, such as closing a position prematurely or avoiding new trades altogether. Fear can prevent traders from sticking to their trading plans and strategies, ultimately hindering their ability to make rational choices.
2. Greed:
Greed is the desire for excessive profits and can lead traders to take unnecessary risks. It often emerges during bullish market trends when traders become overly confident and start making impulsive trades. Greed can cloud judgment and cause traders to hold onto positions longer than they should, leading to significant losses when the market reverses.
3. Hope:
While hope can provide optimism, it becomes problematic when it's not based on logical analysis. Traders may hold onto losing positions hoping for a turnaround, ignoring warning signs that indicate the trade is unlikely to recover. Balancing hope with realistic assessments of market conditions is crucial to avoid capital erosion.
4. Regret:
Regret can arise from missed opportunities or poor decisions. Traders may feel remorse for not entering a trade that subsequently turns profitable, or they may regret entering a trade that results in losses. Regret can lead to impulsive actions, such as chasing trades or deviating from the trading plan to make up for perceived missed opportunities.
5. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out):
FOMO can lead traders to make rushed decisions in an attempt to catch up with perceived profitable opportunities. This can result in impulsive trading and following the crowd without proper analysis. FOMO-driven actions often disregard risk management and trading strategies, leading to poor outcomes.
6. Ego:
Ego can arise from both winning and losing trades. A trader with a big ego may become overconfident after a string of successful trades, leading to complacency and neglect of risk management. Conversely, a trader who experiences losses may let their ego drive them into revenge trading, seeking to prove themselves and recover losses without a sound strategy.
Successful traders learn to manage these emotions through discipline, self-awareness, and a well-defined trading plan. They understand that emotions can cloud judgment and lead to impulsive decisions, so they prioritize rational analysis and risk management to achieve consistent and profitable trading outcomes.
Should we also post on the set of practices we personally follow to build disciplined psychology?
It takes a lot of time and effort to compile such posts. If it was worth your time, Would you give us a boost?
Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? DM us or comment below.👇
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
Special words for gold trading
We often see these words when trading. If you understand them, trading will be easier.
Including "deposit, withdrawal, position, closing, take profit, stop loss", etc.; they mean:
Deposit: remit personal funds to the trading account for trading;
Withdrawal: transfer part or all of the balance in the trading account to a personal bank account;
Position: the name of the trader buying and selling contracts in the market; establishing a trading order is called "establishing a position", a buy order is called a "long position", and a short-selling order is called a "short position"
Closing: ending a held buy order or sell order;
Take profit: the trading order finally achieves the profit target and leaves the market with a profit;
Stop Loss: When the order loss reaches the maximum tolerable amount, admit the loss and leave the market;
In addition to the commonly used terms, there are also some special terms involved in the trading market;
For example: heavy position, light position, carry order, lock position, liquidation
Heavy position: Most of the funds in the trader's account are involved in order transactions
Light position: The trader only uses a small part of the funds in the account to participate in the order;
In trading, there is a most basic principle that "don't put all your eggs in one basket"
There are always risks in the financial market, and traders should remember one sentence:
Avoid risks, trade with light positions, and never hold heavy positions.
Light position standards:
Total loss of holding positions ≤ one-tenth of the account amount
The number of lots for a single transaction of 10,000 US dollars is not more than 0.5-1 lot
Carry order:
When traders encounter losses, they have no stop-loss strategy, do not know how to stop losses and choose opportunities to start over, but always hold losing orders and bet everything on the rise and fall of the market. This is a behavior that should be avoided in trading.
Locking:
Similar to "carrying orders", when traders encounter losses, they do not implement stop-loss strategies, but establish reverse orders while holding loss orders. Locking can only allow traders to temporarily stop further losses, but cannot get rid of losses. If the net value is not enough, a "black swan event" will occur, and the short-order spread will increase instantly, which will also lead to a margin call.
Margin call:
When the funds in the trader's trading account are not enough to trade, it is a margin call; margin call means the loss of all principal.
If you are a novice, these must be helpful to you! I will share trading knowledge from time to time, and you can follow me if you need it.
A few points that I often repeat to myself to sober myself upEveryone has noticed that after a profitable position, emotions of joy pass quickly than in a situation with a loss. Mostly we all know the instruments, we all use same tools, we can watch,read million sources about trading. So why less than 3% profitable on a distance?
⌛️Psychology
A few points that I often repeat to myself to sober myself up
- Your expectations, your problems! Just because it seemed to you that the price should have gone in your direction, does not mean that the market is against you! I understand that there will ALWAYS be losses! Therefore, I came to terms with this fact and simply treat trading as a job! If you open any other offline business, you will have costs and expenses, losses! It's the same story with trade!
- I conducted a survey and see that the majority are trading from liquidation! I try to balance with 1% trades! Of course 0.5 is better. Plus you need to determine the amount of loss you can afford per day! It is best to stop at 2 unprofitable trades per day! Then you just want to win back again and again!
- Pauses! You definitely need to take breaks! The number of trades absolutely does not determine success! Although I used to think that if I don’t trade today it means I’m not working! Not really, quality is more important than quantity.
- Probably the most important thing is that victories or defeats in the market cannot and should not in any way affect my attitude towards life in general, my family, my health! It's just a job in which there is no limit to learning!
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Mastering the Trader Skillset: Building a Strong PyramidIn the dynamic world of trading, success hinges on a robust skillset. Imagine this skillset as a pyramid, with each level representing a crucial component that traders must master to achieve consistent profitability. At the base, we have Technical Analysis, followed by Risk Management in the middle, and Discipline and Patience at the top. Additionally, Automation plays a pivotal role, integrating seamlessly across the entire structure. Let's delve into each of these elements and understand how they contribute to a trader's success.
The Base: Technical Analysis
The foundation of the trader's pyramid is Technical Analysis. This involves studying price charts, patterns, and various indicators to make informed trading decisions. Mastering technical analysis is crucial because it:
1. Identifies Trends and Patterns: Recognizing market trends and chart patterns allows traders to predict future price movements, making it easier to enter and exit trades at optimal times.
2. Utilizes Indicators: Tools like moving averages, RSI (Relative Strength Index), MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and Bollinger Bands provide insights into market momentum, volatility, and potential reversals.
3. Supports Strategy Development: Technical analysis forms the basis for creating and refining trading strategies, whether they are short-term or long-term.
The Middle: Risk Management
Sitting at the middle of the pyramid is Risk Management, a critical component that ensures long-term survival in the market. Effective risk management includes:
1. Position Sizin: Determining the appropriate size for each trade to limit exposure and avoid catastrophic losses.
2. Stop-Loss Orders: Implementing stop-loss orders to automatically close losing positions before they can significantly impact the trading account.
3. Diversification: Spreading investments across different assets or markets to reduce risk.
By prioritizing risk management, traders can protect their capital and remain in the game, even during periods of market volatility.
The Peak: Discipline and Patience
At the pinnacle of the pyramid are Discipline and Patience, the traits that distinguish successful traders from the rest. These qualities are essential for:
1. Adhering to Strategies: Sticking to predetermined trading plans and strategies, even in the face of emotional challenges and market noise.
2. Avoiding Overtrading: Exercising restraint to prevent impulsive decisions and overtrading, which can erode profits and increase risk.
3. Waiting for the Right Opportunities: Having the patience to wait for high-probability setups, rather than forcing trades.
Discipline and patience ensure that traders remain consistent and rational, avoiding the pitfalls of emotional trading.
The Integrative Element: Automation
Automation in trading acts as an integrative element that enhances every level of the pyramid. It involves using algorithms and trading bots to execute trades based on predefined criteria. Automation benefits traders by:
1. Eliminating Emotional Bias: Automated systems follow strategies without being influenced by fear or greed, ensuring objective decision-making.
2. Enhancing Efficiency: Automation can analyze vast amounts of data quickly and execute trades with precision, improving overall trading efficiency.
3. Consistence: Automated strategies maintain consistency in trading, sticking to the plan without deviation.
By incorporating automation, traders can optimize their technical analysis, streamline risk management, and uphold discipline and patience.
The trader skillset pyramid provides a comprehensive framework for achieving trading success. Technical Analysis forms the sturdy base, enabling traders to understand market behavior and develop strategies. Risk Management, positioned in the middle, safeguards their capital and ensures longevity. Discipline and Patience, at the top, are the hallmarks of professional trading, allowing traders to execute their plans effectively. Automation, interwoven throughout, enhances each component, providing a modern edge in the fast-paced trading environment.
By mastering each level of this pyramid, traders can build a resilient and profitable trading career, equipped to navigate the complexities of financial markets with confidence.
Trading Psychology: How to trade economic data.As traders, one of the biggest challenges we face is deciding what factors to consider when opening a trade: should we base ourselves on charts, news, macroeconomic data?
Many opt for a combination of all these elements, and although all traders go through the same stages, there are different routes to success. The problem with following the crowd is that you end up doing exactly what everyone else is doing.
The solution: forge your own path, with all the challenges this entails.
Most traders follow the news, analyze the data and then compare them with the charts to try to determine the best entry point. And as if that were not enough, they often seek the opinion of other online traders to confirm their decision. However, consulting the opinions of others can be counterproductive, as they can alter, for better or worse, any personal opinion about the analysis we are conducting.
We always tend to think that others know more than us and that if they think differently, it must be for some reason and that we will not be the ones who are right.
This is just another example of market psychology and the human tendency to always follow the crowd, regardless of whether it is right or not.
I believe that in order to make a living from trading, research must start with yourself, it is essential. And this is necessary to confirm or refute the information with which the market bombards us every minute.
You need very intense training and experience to make a living from trading.
How many traders trade intraday based on economic calendar data? How many really make money? It’s not worth it.
Aware of the multitude of traders who congregate around the platform at key times, market makers have all kinds of tricks. Their favorite; the sweep. Up, down and both sides at the same time.
Is a mental stop better? In my case, no. I don’t know how mentally strong you are, but the word says it all: mental-stop. When you expose yourself to letting the mind think, you are entering dangerous psychological terrain and it is very difficult, if you are losing, to close with discipline in each and every operation.
Notice that I say in each and every one, because with not respecting a single one and that the price does not return in that operation to the entry point, it will be your elimination as a trader.
Therefore, anything that can cause a loss is worth discarding.
Greed doesn’t let you, we know that with a data in favor of our position you can make a lot of money but if the data is contrary and also forms a gap, no one will save us. And let’s not talk about if you are leveraged. Being leveraged and having the position run against you is one of the hardest experiences a trader can have.
Seeing how your capital is destroyed at forced marches, how losses increase, how you are not able to close because you expect a recovery to do so is dramatic.
Realizing that first loss, which at first seemed big to you and now doesn’t seem so much. You would “kill” to lose only that.
Then, once you are losing a lot you will no longer be able to close. There comes a time when you assume it and let the losses run as far as they go. You have accepted it. You risk the account in the hope of recovering.
This means hours of waiting for the desired recovery. In addition, the market is very rogue. After the fall comes the rebound, usually up to half. You get the idea that it is going to recover completely and instead of closing you hold on to see if the moment comes when you no longer lose anything.
The market will make you believe that this is going to happen. You may even average (add more positions) so that the recovery is faster and by the way, if the price goes beyond where you have opened the first operation, you even come out with profits.
But, as I say, the market is very cruel and when you start to dream and have hope again, it turns around and falls with even more force if possible, crushing your account and destroying your morale.
The result we all know. If the account does not have enough capital to withstand the bleeding, margin call will “come to see us”. And if it does, it will take you days, weeks, months or even years to recover your capital, if you do. Days, weeks, months and even years without liquidity to do what you like the most, trading.
In view of this, stoploss, as well as avoiding any situation that makes you lose is more than justified.
The art of trading in favor of the TrendWe have a clear bias of a psychological nature that basically consists of going against everything that experiences a movement in favor.
When a trend is established, it always tends to last longer than we expect:
_ It’s going to turn around now!, it’s going to turn around now! but it never does.
All that time you’re waiting for a market to turn is precious time you’re losing to go in favor. You’re missing multiple opportunities by waiting for just one, the turn.
And what’s worse, you’re probably even entering the market against it, with its consequent “bites” to your account.
When there is an established trend, the best thing you can do is wait for a retracement of it to enter in its favor.
Therefore:
- Every time there is a trend, for example bullish, if you go against it at every resistance you find, you are trading counter-trend.
- Likewise, if you go against it at every support, in a bearish trend, you are trading counter-trend.
Many times prices stop at supports and resistances, and you may get a “pinch” but by doing so you are not trading in the correct way but as the market wants you to do.
When Are You READY to Trade with REAL MONEY?Hello hello, R2F here with another discussion.
Today, I'd like to go over the question, 'when do you know you are ready to trade with real money?'
Too many traders rush into trading with real capital before they are ready, and end up losing more money than neccessary on learning journey. People are generally impatient creatures and want to get into actions as soon as possible. Perhaps they want to find out if they are magically a trading savant before wasting time on all the usual work that is required.
However, trading is extremely simple, albeit not easy. The difficult part comes in the form of the investment of time and experience, and refining yourself as a person. Once you had that in the bag, trading offers the potential for generational wealth that comes with the freedom of time.
Without further ado, I share my thoughts on how to approach this burning question.
- R2F
HOPE TRADING: This is how you lose big money in tradingHope Trading: How Traders Lose Money in Trading
This image shows how traders lose their money in trading due to hope. Hope is good but also you should believe in your analysis if your SL hits then accept that you are wrong now and should not hope in the wrong direction.
In the world of trading, hope can be both a friend and a foe. While optimism is essential, relying solely on hope can lead to significant losses. Let's explore why:
1. The Power of Hope:
- Hope keeps traders motivated and optimistic.
- It encourages persistence during challenging times.
- However, hope alone is not a winning strategy.
2. The Danger of Blind Hope:
- Traders often cling to hope even when their analysis suggests otherwise.
- Ignoring stop-loss (SL) levels due to hope can be disastrous.
- Hope can blind us to market realities.
3. Balancing Hope and Analysis:
- Believe in your analysis, but remain open to adjusting your strategy.
- If your SL is hit, accept that you were wrong and cut your losses.
- Avoid hoping for a miraculous turnaround.
4. Risk Management:
- Set clear risk limits and stick to them.
- Use SL orders to protect your capital.
- Hope should never override risk management rules.
Remember, hope is valuable, but it must be grounded in sound analysis and risk management.
Thanks
Happy Trading
Trading is execution - USD/JPY Live trading exampleThis is a short mentoring/educational session.
The USD/JPY is the pair we are trading this evening, I analyse this based on the mtf wave structure.
I explained the importance of the secondary trend, as a determinant tool or information for what may happen in the future.
I also shared one of my waves of success strategy using the DMI and the VMP for trade execution.
Finally, after taking the trade, I explained late Mark Douglas probabilistic principles which acts as a solid foundation of our behaviour and interaction with the market.
Delusions of Grandeur - Breaking Your Trading ModelIn this video I would like to talk about a mistake many beginners as well as intermediate traders make, which is having a potentially profitable trading model, and pushing it to the point it stops working. I will discuss WHY it happens, WHY it never works, and WHY you should avoid this blunder.
Your trading model is the strategy that you use to trade with. It can include how you determine your entries, stoplosses, and targets, as well as how you manage risk. The only way to know if a trading model works, and how well it works if it even does at all, is through backtesting and forwardtesting. The more data you collect, the more insight into the model you will have. The main thing I want you to keep in mind is that a trading model’s efficacy relies on collected data, and this data must be consistent. It’s the same as any other industry that does research on their market or products.
So, why do so many traders push a model until it stops yielding them profit?
I would say the first reason is impatience. Humans are impatient, especially nowadays in this of social media and technology. Some traders won’t spend the time doing all the necessary testing required. They want to start making money as quick as possible, but little do they know they end up losing their account as quick as possible. Secondly, it takes time for your setups to appear in the market. People have this naturally preconceived notion that you need to be doing something in order to be working and making money. This is the complete opposite in trading, which goes against our programming. So what ends up happening is traders being less stringent with their model’s criteria just so they can trade more often.
Next is greed. Generally speaking, the safest way to survive as a trader in the long run is through compound interest. Risking small, and letting the math do the work. But that’s not very sexy. Many traders go against their logical risk rules in order to potentially make more money, or more likely, lose more money, or all of it.
Boredom is a factor as well. Seeking excitement from trading is a one-way ticket to blowing your account. You’ll never make it as a trader if you think like that. All good systems are rarely thrilling. It is perfectly fine to be in love with trading, but it should not get your heart racing.
It all comes down to being disciplined. Doing the work, putting in the time, and following the trading model you have either adopted or created yourself. It absolutely doesn’t matter if you have losing trades. It absolutely doesn’t matter if your trade setup appears only once or twice a month. Those are not hindering you from becoming very wealthy in due time. But, running around jumping from strategy to strategy, not sticking to a model’s rules, those things will ensure that you never make it as a trader. It is as simple as that.
I know, it is not easy for many of you. It wasn’t easy for me as well. I am naturally face-paced. So, one piece of advice I have is cultivate organized baby steps. What does that mean? Clearly plan what you want to achieve, and then start with frequent tiny goals that you have no reason to not accomplish. For example, you want to collect data for 500 backtested trades. Start with the goal of backtesting 1 trade per day for a week. The important part here is not only making sure you do that 1 trade backtest, but making sure you ONLY do 1. If you are in the “mood” to do more, DON’T. What would it demonstrate if your decisions are based on your mood? What will happen when you are in the mood to do none? If you say 1 trade, stick to 1 trade. After a week, you can stick with 1 or scale up to 2 backtested trades per day for a week if you are ready, or perhaps a month, it’s up to you. This is just an example. You can apply this method to anything. Basically, you want to condition yourself to be consistent and disciplined. You want to show yourself that YOU are the boss of your life. YOU consciously decide what happens, not your emotions. The only way to do that is to grow that muscle bit by bit. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
- R2F
The Value of an Unbiased BiasHi everyone,
In this video I would like to discuss the value of having an unbiased bias when it comes to your analysis. It’s a dry subject with only a little chart illustrating near the end, but the boring stuff usually tends to be the most important topics when it comes to making it in this industry.
I think most of us are familiar with the word ‘bias’. For those that aren’t, basically, in the context of trading, all it means is being in favour of the market moving either to the upside or downside. Your bias comes by means of your analysis and can be related to any timeframe. For example, I could have a bullish bias on a higher timeframe monthly chart, and a bearish bias for the lower timeframe daily chart.
Now, you don’t HAVE to always have a bias. If you don’t know, then you simple don’t know, and there is nothing wrong with that, it would be unreasonable and nonsensical to think otherwise. But, sometimes your bias is wrong, which leads me to the topic of this video.
I believe even for traders who don’t know how to form a technical bias, do so anyway in the form of psychological bias. Most of the time, we think the market is either going up or down, hence why we would even get into a long or short position. The tricky part is being flexible and changing your bias when the market is indicating you are clearly wrong.
Smart Money knows how we think, and they know how to create sentiment in the marketplace. This is why its crucial to be able to change your bias on a dime, WHEN it is applicable, WHEN your analysis is showing you, and NOT for any other reason. The later you are to the party, the less pips you can catch, and the less likely your trades will win.
As humans, we tend to cling to our beliefs. We block out any evidence indicating that we may be wrong about them. And when the market is showing us that we may be wrong, we just tell ourselves “Well now the market is offering me more pips, I have to get in on this move!”, hence one reason how you get long or short squeezes.
- R2F
What does it take to be a SUCCESSFUL TRADER?Hi everyone,
I felt compelled to create this short video on what I think it takes to be a successful trader. I've separated it into 4 factors:
1. Passion
2. Discipline
3. Perseverance
4. Patience
From my experience, these are the core things that you need to keep going until you find successful. Strategies should be the LEAST of your concern. I always say that to be a successful trader, you have to BE that person! You have to transform the person you are now into the person you vision yourself being. If you can do that, you got it baby.
- R2F
Having a bias doesn't mean having a trading opportunityHaving a bias doesn't mean having a trading opportunity.
We all have a bias on the market, that is defined by our experience and trading approach. And it's not wrong or bad to have it. Problem starts when we're holding onto it too much and when we start to think we know almost for sure where and more importantly - how - the market will move into certain direction.
Indeed, it's pretty easy to read basic trends and "predict" the direction of the market. However, it's basically impossible to tell how the market will do it. And it can move in a number of ways. For example, even though we might be right on overall bullish direction, market can make numerous manipulations to the downside before making a move higher ("Ha! See, I told you it will move higher!"). Or it can move higher, but in a very unclear, rangy fashion. Add flats, accumulations and distributions, fundamental factors etc.
So, objectively, anything can happen and no one really knows the outcome of any particular trade. Having a bias doesn't mean having a trading opportunity. What one knows is if he's following the backtested process of finding and executing on setups. So we can say if the decision is good in the moment of placing trade, not after the outcomes happened.
This uncertainty is how we can ease our greed, fear, pride or shame.. Because if no one really knows, and that's the only truth, than what's the point of getting so serious about our bias. It's not that WE predicted some market move or moved it with our trend lines, zones and any other concept. No one actually did.
What we did is worked and explored to understand approximate patterns and than executed on something familiar, having only one realistic expectation - that we don't know how the price will develop.
RISK MANAGEMENT the most important setting?Trading without a structured risk management strategy turns the market into a game of chance—a gamble with unfavorable odds in the long run. Even if you possess the skill to predict more than half of the market's movements accurately, without robust risk management, profitability remains elusive.
Why?
Because no trading system can guarantee a 100% success rate.
Moreover, the human element cannot be disregarded. Over your trading career, maintaining robotic discipline, free from emotional or impulsive decisions, is challenging.
Risk is inherently linked to trading—it represents the potential for financial loss. Continually opening positions without considering risk is a perilous path. If you're inclined to take substantial risks, perhaps the casino is a more fitting arena. In trading, excessive risk doesn't correlate with greater profits. This misconception often leads beginners to risk excessively for minimal gains, jeopardizing their entire account.
While eliminating all risk is impossible, the goal is to mitigate it. Implementing sound risk management practices doesn't guarantee profits but significantly reduces potential losses. Mastering risk control is pivotal to achieving profitability in trading.
A risk management system is a structured framework designed to safeguard trading capital by implementing specific rules. These rules aim to mitigate potential losses resulting from analytical errors or emotional trading decisions. While market predictions can be flawed, the margin for error in risk management should be minimal.
Key Principles of Risk Management:
1. **Implement a Stop Loss:**
- While this might seem elementary, it's often overlooked.
- Many traders, especially when emotions run high, are tempted to remove or adjust their stop loss when the market moves unfavorably.
- Common excuses include anticipating a market reversal or avoiding a "wasted" loss.
- However, this deviation from the original plan often leads to larger losses.
- Remember, adjusting or removing a stop loss is an acknowledgment that your initial trade idea might be flawed. If you remove it once, the likelihood of reinstating it when needed diminishes, clouded by emotional biases.
- Stick to your predetermined stop loss and accept losses as part of the trading process, void of emotional influence.
2. **Set Stop Loss Based on Analysis:**
- Never initiate a trade without a predetermined stop loss level.
- Placing a stop loss arbitrarily increases the risk of activation.
- Each trade should be based on a specific setup, and each setup should define its stop loss zone. If there's no clear setup, refrain from trading.
3. **Adopt Moderate Risk Per Trade:**
- For novice traders, a recommended risk per trade is around 1% of the trading capital.
- This means that if your stop loss is hit, the loss should be limited to 1% of your total account balance.
- Note: A 1% risk doesn't translate to opening a trade for 1% of your account balance. Position sizing should be determined individually for each trade based on the stop loss level and total trading capital.
By adhering to these risk management principles, traders can build a solid foundation for long-term success in the markets, safeguarding their capital while allowing for growth opportunities.
In the scenario of a losing streak—let's say five consecutive losses—with a conservative risk of 1% per trade, the cumulative loss would amount to slightly less than 5% of your trading capital. (The calculation of 1% is based on the remaining balance after each loss.) However, if your risk per trade is set at 10%, enduring five consecutive losses would result in losing nearly half of your trading capital.
Recovering from such losses, especially with a high-risk approach, presents a significant challenge. The table below illustrates this challenge: if you lose 5% of your capital (approximately five losing trades), you would need to generate a mere 5.3% profit to break even—equivalent to just one or two successful trades. However, if you overextend your risk and suffer, for instance, a 50% loss, you would need to double your remaining capital to restore your original deposit.
4. Utilize a Fixed Percentage of Risk, Not a Fixed Amount for Position Sizing
Position sizing should be dynamic, tailored to both your predetermined risk percentage and the distance to your stop-loss level. This approach ensures that each trade is individually assessed and sized according to its unique risk profile. In the following section, we will delve into the methodology for calculating position size for each trade.
5. Maintain Consistent Risk Across All Positions
While different trading styles like scalping, intraday, and swing trading may warrant varying risk levels, it's crucial to cap your risk at a reasonable threshold. A general guideline is to not exceed a 5% risk per trade. For those in the early stages of trading or during periods of uncertainty, a risk of 1% or less is advisable.
The table below offers an illustrative example of the outcomes achievable by adhering to risk percentages tailored to individual trades. Regardless of your confidence level in the potential profitability of a trade, maintaining consistent risk per trade is paramount.
6. Avoid Duplicating Trades Based on the Same Setup
Opening identical trades based on a single setup doubles your exposure to risk. This principle is especially pertinent when dealing with correlated assets. If you identify a favorable combination of factors across multiple trading pairs, opt to execute the trade on the pair where the setup is perceived to have a higher probability of success.
7. Aim for a Risk-to-Reward Ratio of at Least 1:3
The Risk-to-Reward (RR) ratio measures the potential profit of a trade relative to its inherent risk. A RR ratio of 1:3 signifies that for every 1% risked through a stop-loss activation, a trader stands to gain 3% of their deposit upon a successful trade.
With a 1:3 RR ratio, a trader doesn't need to be correct on every trade. Achieving profitability in just one out of every three trades can result in a net positive outcome. While RR ratios of 1:1 or 1:2 can also be profitable, they typically require a higher win rate to maintain profitability.
For instance, if you're willing to risk 1% to gain 1%, you'd need at least 6 out of 10 trades to be profitable to yield a positive return. It's worth noting that a high RR ratio doesn't guarantee profitability. It's possible to have trades with a 1:6 or greater RR ratio and still incur losses if the win rate is insufficient.
What you can do and what you shouldn't do nowThe market is red! Let's figure out what you can do and what you shouldn't do
- We have an investment portfolio (investments are not a month or even half a year), we invest for the period of a bullish cycle or until a specific zone of interest for the sale of a certain token! We have an accumulation area and a distribution area! Regardless of what happens in the market, our areas of interest do not change. If, for example, your zone of interest for DYDX is 1-2 dollars and below, then you just sit and wait for your zone of interest, if the token falls into this zone, you decide to buy additional coins, or you’ve already had enough! You buy with the amount that is comfortable for you during this period of your life! If you have already collected enough coins into your investment portfolio and DYDX Now 2.6 you don’t just need to click buttons, you stick to your plan! The market is a place of probabilities, the market owes nothing to anyone, and we can easily update all historical lows on altcoins. What you don’t need to do is sell off your accumulated investment portfolio in a panic in the hope of buying back all the accumulated coins cheaper. The market may not give you a better entry point than you already had! If the entry point was too high and you are ready to buy additional assets, you can DCA your position without fuss! Further, if you have concerns about some asset, or you have an overestimated risk in terms of the volume of invested funds, at +100% of your entry point it will never be a mistake to take your invested money and leave free coins!
- As I said earlier, if you trade intraday, you must have an investment portfolio and an amount of money allocated for trading with leverage or just on spot! Every time, no matter what happens in the market, you use the main rule - stop loss! This is what we can control in the market, our losses that we are ready to accept if the market goes against our entry point! 0 emotions, stop loss it’s just part of the job, business costs and expenses! The market is green, you shouldn't care, the market is red, you shouldn't care either, you're looking for intraday entry points for short-term trading!
- For coins after listing, the market once again proves to us that you don’t just need to click buttons randomly! You build a strategy and areas of interest for entry! If a coin comes into your zone using this strategy, such as Portal, Nibi, Bbl, Defi, W and dozens of other coins that I showed on the channel, you make a decision whether to buy or not! If you initially targeted this zone for buying, then why should you feel discomfort when the price comes to this price and the market is red! You were waiting for these prices to buy, what has changed now? For swing trading you also have a dedicated capital that you distribute among the coins, you cannot buy all the coins, we do not have an unlimited stablecoins, let's not fool ourselves! You buy the coins that you have chosen and set reminders for yourself! In each video there are 2 zones for purchase, OK zone and Best zone! Nothing changes, I don’t make random clickbait videos, just for views, there is a clear plan, and don’t forget that there is invalidation of the idea, so plan can be right or wrong! Its okay. Alt, Manta, Ena looks like this coins will not drop to my zones of interest and im ok, im skip this coins for swing trade! There are no win-win strategies or super trading plans with a 99% win rate in the world! If it were that easy, everyone would be a trillionaire! We work with our own capital, our own decisions, losses and profits! Therefore, the psychological component is 50% of success!
- We are not here for entertainment; any financial market is serious work and you need to work with your discipline, change your attitude towards charts, work more seriously with your capital and educate yourself!
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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The whole truth about trading - playing against fateIt is apparent that your interest in trading stems from a desire to transcend the conventional 9 to 6 work regimen or to establish an additional revenue stream for enhanced financial stability. Regardless of the impetus, trading imbues one with a sense of hope—a hope for attaining financial autonomy and catering to the exigencies of one's familial responsibilities.
Nevertheless, hope unaccompanied by acumen proves inadequate in the realm of trading.
Are you prepared to delve into the intricacies of trading in its entirety?
Can you harness the mechanisms of trading to your advantage and prosper therein?
Trading is a means of slow enrichment
For many, the following assertion may not be warmly received, yet it warrants acknowledgment: Trading serves as a gradual enrichment scheme.
While anecdotes exist of traders who commenced with modest capital and ascended to seven-figure balances, such instances are rare. The reality is stark: the odds of such success are exceedingly slim. The allure of amassing substantial wealth swiftly is tempting, but it often necessitates assuming excessive risk. Only those blessed with exceptional luck may realize significant gains in short order.
Conversely, the vast majority—99.99%—who pursue this path find themselves depleting their initial investment. Merely a fortunate minority attain even modest profits, and their success is often attributed more to chance than skill.
Consider the perspective of Warren Buffett, whose wealth is renowned:
"My wealth is a product of American residency, fortuitous genetics, and the power of compound interest."
The crux lies in compound interest—the gradual accumulation of profits over time. Buffett's ascent to becoming the world's wealthiest investor spanned decades, not mere weeks or months.
Hence, if one views trading as a shortcut to affluence, disillusionment is inevitable.
You need money to make money from trading
One of the most pervasive trading fallacies is the belief that possessing a profitable trading strategy guarantees the potential to amass millions in the market—a notion that has ensnared many traders.
While it is feasible to develop a lucrative strategy, its profitability alone does not guarantee the attainment of vast wealth. Why? Because the magnitude of your initial deposit plays a pivotal role.
Consider this scenario: Suppose you possess a trading strategy yielding a 20% annual return.
With an account balance of $1,000, your potential earnings amount to $200 per year.
With $10,000, your potential earnings escalate to $2,000 annually.
Scaling up further, with a $1 million account, potential earnings soar to $200,000 per year.
This illustrates that while a trading strategy is undeniably significant, it represents only one facet of the equation. Equally crucial is the size of your trading account.
This elucidates why hedge funds attract vast sums—often in the millions, if not billions of dollars—since substantial capital is indispensable for maximizing returns from trading endeavors.
Trading is one of the worst ways to earn a regular income
Trading is often sought out by individuals seeking an alternative income stream, aiming to liberate themselves from the confines of a conventional 9 to 6 job in pursuit of pursuing their passions. However, it is crucial to confront a sobering reality: trading stands as one of the least reliable avenues for securing a consistent income.
Why? The dynamics of financial markets are inherently mercurial. A strategy that yields profits one week may falter the next. This isn't to suggest that such strategies become entirely obsolete, but rather that market conditions necessitate adaptability. Realigning a strategy to suit evolving market dynamics demands time—a commodity not readily available in the fast-paced world of trading. This adjustment period could extend over several weeks or even months.
Consequently, anticipating profits on a daily, weekly, or even monthly basis proves unrealistic. Success in trading hinges upon one's ability to capitalize on market opportunities as they arise, accepting the yields bestowed by the market, and refraining from unrealistic expectations of consistent returns.
You're always studying the markets
Continuous learning is indispensable for success in trading. Reflecting on my own journey, I initially gravitated towards indicators and price action trading, convinced that these tools alone would suffice for profitability. However, this mindset hindered my progress, as I neglected broader market perspectives.
Recognizing the limitations of my approach, I embarked on a journey of exploration. I delved into the practices of accomplished traders, discovering diverse strategies such as trend trading, system trading, and mean reversion trading.
Today, my repertoire encompasses multiple trading strategies across various markets. This diversified approach has engendered a more consistent capital curve, enhancing my overall returns.
The pivotal lesson gleaned from this experience is clear: achieving profitability in trading does not signify the culmination of one's learning curve. On the contrary, ongoing education and exploration of the markets remain imperative for sustained success.
How do you become a successful trader when all the odds are against you?
Embrace Existing Solutions:
Attempting to forge your own path in trading can prove both time-consuming and costly. Instead, seek out established trading algorithms equipped with tested and proven trading rules. Consider investing in algorithms like mine, which come backed by historical testing results.
Maintain Financial Stability:
Relying solely on trading for income places undue psychological pressure on yourself. The imperative to generate monthly income often leads to hasty and ill-advised trading decisions. Many seasoned traders, therefore, diversify their income streams. For instance, some engage in mentorship or operate hedge funds that levy management fees irrespective of market performance. By securing a stable income through alternate means, you can focus on trading without financial anxiety.
Harness the Power of Compound Growth:
Albert Einstein hailed compound interest as the eighth wonder of the world. Yet, I propose introducing you to the ninth wonder: the regular infusion of funds to augment profits. Consider this scenario: with an initial $5,000 investment earning an average annual return of 20%, you would amass $191,688 over 20 years. However, by adding an additional $5,000 to your account annually and compounding profits, your total would skyrocket to $1,311,816 over the same period. Witness the transformative potential of consistent contributions and compounding gains.
Why Traders Should Learn From Cristiano RonaldoCristiano Ronaldo is a soccer legend. He has won the Ballon d'Or five times, which is an award for the best player in the world.
He's scored more than 700 career goals, and he's won league titles in England, Spain, and Italy. Not to mention, he's also won the Champions League, Europe's top club competition, five times.
Ronaldo is known for his incredible work ethic, athleticism, and his drive to win. He's one of the greatest soccer players ever.
Traders can learn greatly from Cristiano Ronaldo. How? Let's go back to his past.
When Ronaldo was getting ready to make a big jump in his career to join Manchester United, he had to make a huge choice.
Top teams like Barcelona and Inter Milan also wanted him. But Manchester United's coach, Sir Alex Ferguson, promised him something special: he'd get to play in lots of games, at least 50% of total matches in the season. An offer which he agreed to take.
Even when Ronaldo was still young he wasn't oriented about getting rich or famous fast. Ronaldo picked Ferguson's team because he wanted to get better at soccer by having more opportunities to play. He believed in process.
This decision helped him become the star we all know now.
This is a good story to think about for anyone starting to trade. Trading isn't just about making fast cash. It's about learning how the market works and making smart choices. Think like Ronaldo did: focus on practicing and getting better, not on the money you could make today or tomorrow.
Now, let's go to another field. Let's look at example from a doctor who is about to perform surgery.
The doctor was faced with a critical decision:
A 55-year-old man with a serious heart condition needs surgery to continue working and living without pain.
The operation has clear benefits, potentially extending the patient's life from age 65 to 70.
However, there's an 8% risk associated with the surgery, meaning that there's a chance the patient may not survive the operation itself. The doctor, knowing these odds, decides to go ahead with the surgery, and thankfully, it's a success.
This situation parallels the decisions traders make. They analyze market conditions, evaluate potential risks and rewards, and make their best judgment call on whether to buy or sell an asset.
Much like the doctor who bases their decision on medical knowledge and the patient's condition, a trader relies on economic data, company performance, and market trends. But even with the best analysis, the outcome is not guaranteed.
The doctor's decision should not be judged solely on the outcome—the patient's survival—because it was made with the best information available at the time.
Similarly, in trading, a decision should not be judged only by the profit or loss that results. A trade made on sound analysis can still lose money if the market goes the other way, just as a profitable trade could result from an ill-informed decision that happens to get lucky.
It’s like running past a dynamite factory with a lit torch. If you make it past and nothing blows up, it might seem like a good decision because you’re okay.
But was it smart to run with that torch in the first place? Not really. That's what traders have to watch out for: not tricking themselves into thinking a risky bet was smart just because they didn't lose money this time.
For new traders, the best thing to do is make a trading plan and stick to it. Write down why you're making each trade. Later, you can look back and learn from what you did right or wrong. It’s not about quick wins; it’s about getting better over time.
Another example is if you're learning to cook. You don’t expect to be a great chef right away. You start with simple recipes and get better with practice. And if a dish doesn’t turn out perfect, it doesn’t mean you're a bad cook. It's part of learning.
In trading, remember the idea of outcome bias.
This is when you think a decision was good just because things ended up okay. This can really mess with your head, making you overconfident or too scared to make your next move.
So, traders should be like athletes or chefs, caring more about how they do their work than just the win or the perfect meal.
Believe in the process because in the long run, it's how much you learn and get better that really matters.